[BIG CONTROVERSY] $300,000 Punt With Pocket Aces??
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- Опубликовано: 24 авг 2023
- This hand has really been making the rounds on social media. At Hustler Casino Live, @MarianoPoker gets into a big hand against "Jungleman" Dan Cates with pocket aces. It's starts off with a 3bet preflop, followed by two barrels on the flop and turn. The river brings in a flush completer, and this is where the drama begins. Daniel Negreanu and Mike Matusow have been having a heated argument over what Mariano should have done when checked to. Let's take a deeper dive into this fascinating spot.
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Hey Doug I think you made a mistake when you were charting Jungle Man 3 bet calling range you use the chart said 100bb and I don't think you added 910 suited in a few other hands so that makes tour analysis overall incorrect.. I think you should redo it correctly
能送一套给我吗 我求你了还不行吗
Was jungles check on River correct?
@@bigbawlr79 I think it was Mariano showing a ton of strength 3 bedding than betting the Flop than hammering the turn it jungle man best out I mean how much is he going to bet he's got 85,000 left I think the pot is like 130,000 so he pretty much have to just shove all-in and that looks really strong with the heart a checking there I think is the better play and you hope Mariano shoves which he did
Thank you for finally clearing this up.
I thought it was the most standard hand ever
Same. You had the ace of hearts. Even if he had a flush, he should at least pause to consider you had a higher flush. It was a jam all day long.
@@ken138 there’s is no way he is betting 40k on the turn with a draw, his hand was face up it was always an overpair or sometime set of Q. Poker is easy when u run like god and u are always in the line up against dentist Dave and Mike x 😅
@johhnydeep4961 then go play there see how easy.
So what did you put him on? Were you trying to get him to fold a set, baby flush, or straight? Top pair "might" call you.
@@untouchable360x He has a lotof top pair, and unless he was playing very loose preflop shouldn't have many flushes, as doug said. Good players will mix their top pairs and will call a decent amount of worse hands here. If you think jungle folds 95% of his top pairs here you're just wrong...
Excellent breakdown
Well said
we missed you doug 🥲
No "we" didn't
This just in!! Brbrbbrbrbrbrbbbbrreaking News!
He’s back because he’s broke
@@lgrace3874 yeah bc broke people do 100k heads up challenges💀
@@conaldarssword2499yet here you are
The fact that so many people jumped to scream punt, is exactly why poker can still be profitable 😅
I assume you're making profit playing poker?
@@happycat6836 it’s not my main squeeze, but I’ve been in the black 12 out of the 14 years I’ve played semi-professionally at medium stakes
@@happycat6836 I am. And he's right.
More profitable than ever with all the newbies
Poker is profitable. Rake is not.
Doug’s back 👍 Thx for the in depth analysis on this episode of Polker hands
This has everything: high end techy analysis for nerds, and.... POCKET ACES! A fine balance, sir
Also; this breakdown told me that these two players are essentially human solvers. KQ of hearts is apparently the one hand AA has to worry about getting snapped by that is beating it.
I never saw this hand as a punt, but we'll played from both players. With that said I want to thank Doug for these types of videos. Doug, you are an absolute master and your instruction is so valuable. I watch every video, use my solver, etc. But to have you anyalize a hand carries so much more information. You are the best poker learning tool out today. I play at The Lodge and am a member at Upswing Poker. If you are reading this and what to take your game up 1 level or 10, join Upswing and learn today's poker from a real master. Thank you Doug and please do more of these.
Very great content Doug. Do more of this. This was very informative … even if you’re rounding to 1/4’s. I loved this.
Is it still solid GT?
The whole video was GT bro … wtf are you asking ?
@@chrismcconkey3793 Would it help you to understand if I changed the word solid to sound?
@@onbored9627 Yeah, it's still very solid and rounded ranges might even be a bit more realistic (which actually makes the analysis more useful in practice). All "GTO" solver stuff are approximate solutions anyway.
@@Cowtymsmiesznego Ah, I see. Thank you for explaining!
This is a perfect example of folks being results oriented and Monday morning quarterbacking. Its easy to say someone did something wrong, after you know the result, but thats the great thing about solvers these days, it proves it was the plus EV move long term.
Yeah, that wouldn't make me feel that much better as 130K goes Junglemans way LOL 😂
You think so Doug made a huge error when he was showing what jungle man would be calling the three bet with he change the chart to 100 BB's instead of 200 number 1 and number 2 jungle man can show up with 910 suited here when you add a few more hands it makes a decision much much closer to either checking or shoving and if you don't think these guys call 9-10 suited three bets Mariano five bet with 9 10c got 6 bet called another 20k and Andy bet flop Mariano insta folded lost 30k he didn't need to..
Great video! I really like this format of breaking down hands with the solver and adding in your commentary. Also, it's gotta be hard to find some of those turn bluffs
I am curious if you diving deeper like this while being less entertaining hits your desired demo more or not… or even if you care. You definitely bring diversity to the poker world on many different fronts so appreciate you introducing solver stuff like this to me who is really more of a casual observer.
offshoot technical channel?
@@AaronConway there is already an upswing channel on YT.
I'm learning more from this than from entertaining stuff
@@user-cr3dn9vt6h💯
It’s beyond boring. Hand is a cooler and isn’t even a debate.
My guess as to why the solver wants to push deeper with A Q suited on the turn is because if the river is a heart you have the nut flush and it's a lower chance your opponent has pocket aces.
18:14 Is exactly why so many people think this is a check. Either they're forgetting that it was a 3-bet pot (which should eliminate a ton of random suited hands and T9 pre), or they're used to playing loose/passive low stakes games where many villains are heavily unbalanced toward playing random suited junk.
Nah the reason they think it's a check because they look at the result on 1 specific occasion and want to seem smart online. Your argument isn't wrong, but 90% of "poker players" on twitter or in youtube comments don't think anywhere near that far about it :')
IMO it's the latter. People are used to playing donkeys who can have T9 or 6h7h in this spot. But, even in low stakes games, in today's day and age you will encounter many good players which you have to know how to play against, and vs these players it's a slam dunk all in.
Funny you said that you could eliminate 9/10 s in a 3bet pot that's funny because the next time Mariano played he 5 bet with 910 suited and Andy Six bet with A10s and Mariano called another $20,000 and then folded flop and dumped 30,000 when he didn't need to
@@Joel-js2gkthat's funny you said that because next time Mariana was on Hustler he5 bet 910 suited and Andy Sixx bed him and he called another $20,000 preflop and then had to fold the Flop when he didn't hit his hand are you calling Mariano a donkey LOL
Your mistake in eliminating T9s and similar because it's a 3-bet pot is in the 3-bet ranges for such deep stakes. T9 is DEFINITELY a 3bet hand.
This makes sense when playing high stakes against good players, I think this is a clear check back in most low stakes live cash games which is what most of the commenters online play, I would check this back in Mariano's spot playing my regular 2/5 game, I'd only get called by better from 95% of the player pool
The Doug Polk seal of approval should provide solace to anyone who just got stacked.
The feeling when the heart hit the felt felt good, but the real dupers delight feeling was the sound of All-In!!
You can see the feeling rush over Jungleman and that smile come out!
He’s literally dancing in his seat!!
Lucky Fellow!
Thanks Doug! This is great! Would love to see more of this!
Great vid Doug!......Please give us more Live PLO cash game streams with Nik Airball and Durrrrrrr....it would be amazing 🔥🔥🔥
This reminds me of the Dwan/Barry Greenstein hand where Greenstein had aces and Dwan had KQ suited. They got it in on a similar board (all in on flop) but here Jungle plays it more conservative.
Jungle played it correctly
Doug.
A lot of players are mischaracterizing this play as a mistake on river, but it’s a big mistake on flop betting 66% instead of B33.
Just like you said that jungle doesn’t wanna raise on flop to keep Mariano’s range wide, Mariano wants to keep hands like Jungle’s 77-TT in at a greater frequency, so by the time the river comes, Jungle still has these a portion of these hands in his range that has to hero call.
But when he makes the 66% even TT is folding so much more on flop.
So I think the mistake is concentrating Jungles range into hands that will beat his by river.
LOVE the in depth analysis. I play mostly tournaments and for the sake of saving a stack, If I am mariano I am checking back that river a lot of the times
Doug, unfortunately it’s difficult to explain to some people what they don’t want to believe. On the bright side they all watch and comment and that is the goal of the video. Thanks for the in-depth analysis.
I think this is one of the best breakdowns you have done.
Hahahahahahahahaha dramatic music stops, "one of my posters in the background [zooms in] just fell down" 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I love the fact that so many people think it was a punt and the very same bunch would snapfold top pair or even two pair on the river in Jungle's shoes. EV+++
Keep em coming! I always appreciate your results separate and full unbiased logical polker analysis.
On a side note, I found the 78s and 67s blasts interesting. As a player that tends to be more aggressive, borderline reckless, I'd love a video about finding appropriate bluffs to punt with solid reasoning.
Thank you for clearing this up, I wasnt sure if your poster was punted into the void or if it just called itself off of the wall.
I was just thinking about how you hadn't posted in a while this morning, pretty sure i willed this vid into existence
Could the AQ of hearts check raise turn all in more because it's actually nuts if it makes the flush, plus the added benefit of blocking combos of AA?
I was thinking the same thing, as well as an overcard to KK and is ahead of KQ? These seem like okay guesses, but who knows??
Solver check-jams AxQx more than AhQh probably for protection -- get flush draws to fold. But it occasionally check- jams AhQh for value.
As far as why it check-jams AhQh 25% and KhQh 0%, that is probably because the turn 2s is, in this scenario, not actually a blank -- it brings in wheel draws and pairs Ah2h. So if Mariano 3-bet preflop, c-bet 67% and bets 80% on the turn, AhTh, Ah5h, Ah3h and Ah2h are all a substantial part of his double-barrel bluff range. If Jungle check-jams KhQh, it's effectively 85k$ for Mariano to call a pot of 210k$, or 2.5 to 1, and Mariano is priced in with anything over 29% equity. And the aforementioned AT, A5, A3 of hearts are 29.6% to win because of the straight draws (Ah2h is 27.3% with the 2pr draw). So much of the equity denial of KhQh check-jam is lost, because a substantial amount of Mariano's double-barrel semi-bluffs don't fold, and can hit top pair / straight / nut flush. A6, A7, A8 probably fold. Of course AQ, AA-JJ all call, so as far as value, KhQh is getting called by better, rarely by worse -- unless it's a strong draw
11:35 @DougPolkPoker indicates that the solver doesn't bet AhTh on the turn because a facing a check jam is a bit of a disaster. True, but still priced in for a call -- more of a disaster if Jungleman doesn't agree to run it twice I suppose.
@@gpapazian Your analysis can't be right. You're saying that the solver wants to deny equity against hands IT IS AHEAD OF. That's not how it works. To maximize EV you want to put in as much as you can against hands you are ahead of. It should be obvious that if you can shove against AT, A5, A3 & A2 of hearts you prefer a call, not a fold. You might be on the right track but you have something backwards because a solver would prefer MORE worse hands to CALL. It only prefers more fold equity against hands it is behind. It prefers less fold equity against hands it is ahead of.
Also running it twice does not affect your chances of winning, equity, or EV, it only affects variance.
If I understood correctly, AA always jam is because targets top pair/blocks nut flush and opponent can have more Qx combos that might pay you compared to flush combos?
Exactly
Amazing video Doug, love this kind of content
Please continue. The breakdown on pocket queens and the recommended bluffs surprised me. Otherwise, as stated by Mariano, standard play with hands both players had. Why we watch them play.
Sorry it's not standard Doug didn't shark The 3bet Call by jungle man correctly use 100bb chart 910 suited can easily be in his range maybe even a couple of their hands which make the shove and check back indifferent.. and when you look at the hand exploitive Lee I mean what is jungle calling the huge turned that with and then snap checking the river not even thinking about bluffing the heart even if doug does it correctly with the 200 BB chart and it's much closer I don't care what they say.. in this situation the check back is correct and I've asked a few friends who played very high limits in Vegas and they agree
Great video, thanks Doug! Enjoyed the solver work especially! ;)
These in-depth hand reviews are great
Great video and thanks for taking us through with the solver. I have never used one before and having someone walk through how to use it, along with analysis, was top notch. Always enjoy your videos!
4:45 Naples is 66, Rome is 88, Florence is JTs, Milan is AQs and Venice is K8s.
That was a great play from both....Mariano played the hands exactly like he was supposed too..(some will argue the all in was uncalled for..because he can only be called by the big flush blocking the nut flush..I guess he wanted two pair to fold...
And jungle was conservative and as I said can't raise on a river but can almost call 95% of the case.
As always, amazing analysis. I went into this thinking it was a jam, but nice to have the proof.
Question is - understanding the possible flush and straight draw available from the flop, should Mariano have bet more than pot to try and fold possible draw combos for seeing a river?
If Jungleman called the flop bet, clearly there must be some equity he's holding onto (or just a straight bluff).
no, those are hands he wants value from. and when he overbets he condenses jungles range and a lot of what calls beats aces
If I bet big on the flop and on the turn and get called twice, I’m not betting the river when the third heart hits and all I have is one pair
You are under thinking it and hence why you will lose at showdown VERY often when there's a reason it's done and has such a MASSIVE ev loss from NOT betting river big.
But that separates the players who win over long stretches to the ones who lose.
@@Justice4Skye thank you
You're losing 30k in EV by checking.
Struggling to understand how the solver loves the turn bet, you have the nut flush blocker, just seems massive. A middling flush draw is folding do we not want to keep that in.
Please tell me people?
This is my favorite hand analysis video you've done because when I saw the hand played live I thought it was a punt since there were so few worse hands in range that will call and so few better hands that would fold.
Because the solver of saying that it's a $24,000 mistake that's based on the hands that Doug is putting jungle man on he could have a straight trowel here too and I know that when you add a few more hands it comes very close to checking or shoving
Didn’t think Polk could get any douchier then he bought those glasses!
So good at bringing poker hands to life, with great analysis. You're a genius in your presentation of what you do.
Great content. Thx Doug.
I think AhQh is a check jam on the turn because the equity is slightly ahead of Mariano turn bet/call range, while KhQh is slightly under.
Please make more videos like this Doug
Thanks Doug. Great analysis
Learned alot of solver theory here thanks Doug 🙏
Very educational video. I liked the solver use.
Really like this academic format!
I'm assuming K6s is preferred to K7s because of the occasional 2-5 board against an Ace?
Can we get a link to the blue light blocking glasses?
Nice breakdown Doug. Thanks 🙏🏼
Question for you, though, Doug -
What does jungle ever have, as played, that arrives at showdown, is worse than AA & calls ?
This reminds me of the Tom Dawn vs Barry Greenstein hand!
Excellent break down, I was all over that 6-7dd bluff, but then again, I'm incredible.
12:45 “I am not a robot”.
Love the solver vids!
I'm surprised that 10-9 of hearts doesn't show up here on the river.
I was confused too but I think it’s bc T9hh almost pure raises the flop. If you look at the flop sim T9s is raising abt 25% of the time so that’s probably 95% of the time with hearts. So by the river you don’t have many T9hh bc you’d usually raise them
@@MrJoosebawkz Is it a pure raise on the flop even against such a large bet from Mariano?
@@gabrielrockman i can’t provide you with any extra analysis I’m not a god at poker. All I’m saying is, according to the sim in this video, we see T9s raise on the flop in response to the bet close to 25% of the time. And we can probably assume all the raising is on the hearts T9s. Then non heart T9s fold out on the turn. and since Jungle didn’t raise the clop we just have a tiny little sliver of T9s by the river bc the solver rarely does something at 100% frequency. Usually only at like 99.998% frequency.
So to answer ur question: in this sim? yes.
why? idk.
Under better parameters could you have a better strategy for T9hh? idk
Holy shit, nice style upgrade, Dr Dough.
Fantastic video. I'd love to see more solver breakdowns of hands like this. Thanks Doug!
Why do you not do these solver breakdowns yourself, like 4-5 hours every single day?
Hey Doug, your in depth breakdowns are my favorite. Can you do a video on exploitative play vs. GTO specifically for this level and this group of high stakes cash players. I'd love to know from someone who sits at these tables what you think the various players rely on in the most in these spots. I know it's completely speculative, but there's voodoo, magic, momentum, karma and the poker Gods in play in any game, but especially at this level. Using a solver for guys like this just seems so silly. These are not online GTO multi screen HUD geeks from the math department at Harvard. That's what makes them fun to watch.
The fact that a guy who constantly punts his stack will occasionally stumble upon correct river jams does not say anything about him being a good player. If all you ever do is punt, then CLEARLY some of those jams have to be solver approved merely by chance.
Constantly punts his stack? Not really.
One way to look at the river is: If it's a punt to bet Aces then Jungle is punting by checking, too.
Excellent breakdown. ThxDoug
Don’t all the pros say you’re supposed to raise the blocker in those spots?
Excellent tutorial on why both players made the right moves.
Interesting, I felt it was gonna be a lot closer of a decision 😮
All hail the computer overlord!
Real question. We know most if not all top pros have solvers they use to construct strategy. They memorize information the solver gives them then use it in play. We also know that using software in real time is while playing online is super easy (sure the client can track it on the PC the client is running on but.. how easy is it to run it on a different Pc concurrently?) why would anyone want to play in an environment where cheating is actually encouraged.
Hand analysis the best in the business
What a great video like always 🔥
where can I find that app
Thanks for the excellent analysis Doug
Mariano had ace of hearts which I think was the ultimate decider here. Blocks nut flushes so jungleman had the only realistic hand which was queen of hearts with any other card
Basically wrote the same comment before reading any others agree. It's just a case of specificly KQ hearts being the only combo this line would work. The only other is maybe Q,10 hearts but that it
NOT A PUNT!!
Doug would you consider making a video regarding the intricacies of understanding solver use? Such as how to read all of the info
Thanks for coming straight from the gun range to make a video for us.
It looks like when you went back to Jungle’s response to Mariano’s 3b you went to the 100 bb stacks tab instead of the 200bb tab. That would change his range a bit, no?
I look back and you are correct and that's a huge error because I think jungle man can have 9-10 suited here also I just feel like there's more hands that jungle show up with that are ahead and not many that he'll be behind and call I still feel that Mariano should be checking this hand and if Doug redid this and added a few more hands it would change everything I hear it ends up making it a no-decision whether you should check or shove either way would be okay
looks a lot like the first AH office too
Doug you make the best poker content and it really isn't even that close. S-ranked poker content for sure. Negreanu makes very good videos too, but I think yours are best.
Doug content is amazing indeed, big fan here. Checkout Saulo Costa's Poker Made Simple youtube channel, it's great as well.
You clearly are not very deep I'm the pokerstreets if you think dnegs makes quality content. In fact if this is a leve wp because not sure if....
@@up2me967 His content is amazing - he explains concepts very well and very clearly. The concepts he covers aren't very advanced, but they're well done.
I didn't have to look at the solver to know it was a jam. The kids screaming that it was a punt are just that, kids (in terms of experience). They play the free WSOP game on their phones and watch highlights from poker livestreams. They don't play against real people, much less good regs, or in this case the world's elites.
Please more videos like this. Love your insights backed up with pio sims.
This was a solid breakdown viddy. Keep them coming, my boy!
I'm guessing AhQh is a better raise on the turn than KhQh because:
1. You block AA
2. You have 3 additional Ace outs vs KK
3. If your opponent also has AQ you might get him off a chop (or be on a free roll if he calls)
Full disclosure, I have no idea what I'm talking about.
I liked this comment for the full disclosure 🤣
There are no shoves on the turn. It would be an almost 3x pot shove on the turn.
@@mully107What on earth are you talking about? After Mariano's turn bet, a shove is less than 1.5x pot.
@@sinatra222 you know that when you edit your comment it shows that right?
@@mully107so?
Hey Vanessa, what times the skydive??
Wouldnt check raising AQ hearts on the turn get it in against weaker flushdraws and/or freeroll agains other AQ?
Doug looking like he is going to the shooting range.... 😆
Insane level of thought process.
Cates is such a strong player. In every single game. Respect. Great content Doug!
Why because he called down and made his flush? Lol top level play there
@scottlarrabee1953 you are coping on every comment, lol
@@scottlarrabee1953luck had a ton to do with it, you can’t strategize what cards going to be turned up next 🤦♂️
what about 10 9 of hearts? why wouldn't that be in his range?
Was thinking the same
910 of hearts doesn't check call flop. It check raises at a such a large frequency that after Jungle calls, 910h isn't in his range anymore.
Love the Piosolver analysis!
Extremely excellent breakdown of the hand.
Cant believe Doug left the skeet range early just to make us a video...👍🏻
How do you randomize in Live Poker?
Love your videos! You should post more. How about something on the train wreck that was the Celebrity Invitational on PokerGO :)
When you bet or jam with AA on the end what are you hoping 2 get called with?
Jungle played it perfectly. Quick chk on the river, a glance at his opponent to faint weakness(fear) and the trap slams shut! Very nice.
I’d have done a small bet instead of checking-and not have gotten paid as much.
@@lgrace3874I’d have lost the hand 10 out of 10 times I’m shi* at bluffing 😂I’m okay with that though, I’m not a poker player or liar which really is what you’re doing and that’s not me being judgmental it’s just what it is and they’re good at it.
What's the difference between rake and no rake charts?
One of them has rake in it