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I think you are missing the main point that whatifaltist is pointing out which is that the actual economic situation for the average person is divorced from what an economist would say is a booming economy. A lot of quality of life metrics are quite low because income inequality has gone up. Total wealth in the system doesn’t matter if only a small fraction of the populace benefits from it.
also it’s true that since three years ago economy went crazy bad. every single millennial no matter where they live, they are struggling on every aspect of life, not only finance.
That is the point whatifaltist is trying to get across, but he doesn't seem to understand why this is happening. You want to own a diversified portfolio that invests in the United States as a whole. Therefore, the economies success is your success as well. If you don't, you'll be left behind. It's really that simple. But takes a bit of financial knowledge, a lot of discipline and some good luck.
He's a smart dude but he's like 21 or something. Young intelligent people are great and I look forward to the wisdom he gains over the next decade. Homie rails about socialism but has clearly not read any Marx.
Solid video dude, i just found you but Im subscribed. I love finding creators like you who spend their time on their actual content instead of editing or animations. Keep telling people what they need to hear, I definitely learned a couple things
He had a statistic on what it takes to live comfortably in Mississippi (where I live) and it was $172,000. I make less than 50k and am pretty comfortable. It’s funny because he claims how statistics can be used to distort reality while doing the same thing himself.
Incredible video. I've sent think link to several friends. In my 18 year career, I have never seen a more unbiased, intelligent, well thought out and backed up "take" regarding the topics discussed.
Great video. I like how wide ranging Rudyard's videos are but for those who watch them without a lot of external context it's possibly easy to be a little too swayed by the flashing up of various graphs, pictures and drawings that may or may not actually support (or sometimes even actually be related to) what he's saying. You were very polite throughout your reaction and provided many intelligent and knowledgeable counterpoints and context.
I watched one of your videos and thought you were a smart guy based on what you said about "old money" supporting left-wing politicians. But here I disagree with you on almost everything you said. I could make many comments, but what struck me most was your conclusion on this issue. Research shows that unhappy people are more likely to spend money on consumption as a way to improve their emotional state. This is often referred to as "retail therapy." For a consumption-driven economy, this might lead to short-term economic growth: people buy more goods, increasing company profits and stimulating production.
However, there are several serious drawbacks: If an economy is continuously supported by the spending of an unhappy population, it creates an unstable foundation. Depressed or stressed people may accumulate debt, leading to long-term economic collapse as they become unable to continue their spending habits. Social and Psychological Impact: Excessive consumption does not lead to lasting happiness. Constantly chasing material goods can increase stress, worsen mental health, and deepen inequality, as people often spend money they don’t have to meet societal expectations. Lack of Sustainable Development: A country’s progress relies not only on economic factors but also on social stability and the mental well-being of its citizens. Keeping a population in a constant state of sadness or dissatisfaction impairs quality of life and hinders societal growth.
An analogy to broiler chickens, which are kept in the dark to accelerate weight gain, is appropriate here. In both cases-whether it's boosting meat production or encouraging consumer spending among a gloomy population-the immediate goal is profit. However, this short-term gain overlooks long-term consequences. For the chickens, this leads to ethical concerns and declining product quality; for society, it leads to deep social and economic challenges.
Many experts argue that happiness and well-being are better indicators of societal success than economic consumption alone. Modern economic approaches, such as "welfare economics" or "happiness indices," emphasize that successful societies should aim for sustainable growth, which includes the emotional, physical, and social well-being of their citizens.
In the short term, an unhappy population might indeed boost the economy through increased spending. However, this is a dead-end strategy. A sustainable and prosperous society balances economic growth with the well-being of its people. A country where citizens are happy is more productive, creative, and resilient in the long term.
@@maxbig9021 I dont believe Nick is trying to say retail therapy is a non-issue nor that it is sustainable in the long term, merely that it has little bearing on the economic situation in the present moment, and that which it does have is positive. It is entirely justified to present this fact as a counter argument to the position presented by Rudyard in his video.
Rudyard's skepticism is great, but that needs to be paired with skepticism towards alternative sources of information and theories. Both need to happen to have a coherent critique
Qualify of life is declining. There is a divorce between "the economy" and reality, if you are a major shareholder in blackrock then youre probably having the time of your life right now, otherwise not so much. GDP also seems to not consider staggering debt (both government and private) and how that eats into a countrys people.
A decent effort. Please do more. Because we cannot rely on the official CPI, Measuring inflation, the common person looks at wages and purchasing power of their parents and grandparents. Those show that a man can work to support a wife and three kids, go on vacation, pay for college, etc. because a factory worker or restaurant managers used to be able to do this, but no longer can, the typical citizen is frustrated and angry at the Mary Poppins economic experts. Again, please do more of these.
Respect for chin checking whatif on this. I still feel like he's directionally correct, but as a fellow number enthusiast I am glad someone sorted this out in depth.
About the investment companies, the big issue with those is that they are voting the shares that they bought with other peoples money, You buy an ETF and your money goes to buy shares in companies and the people who run the ETF vote on your behalf. Thats what makes those big investment firms potentially powerful. This was the subject of the INDEX act. The INDEX act makes sense. Probably many bad decisions made by Disney are being made due to the influence of these investment firms and the fact people who own ETFs, the common investors, are decoupled from them in voting power.
In theory the Index Act sounds great, but in practice how many small shareholders know anything about corporate actions to vote on them prudently. The other problem which I discussed in my ESG reaction to Felix Rex, is that many institutional investors dangerously put their blind trust in proxy voting firms like ISS and Glass Lewis who end up having too much power themselves.
really nice video and aproach I am a big fun of rudyard and becoming yours as well . I like the data focused review (even you didn't presented any but I trust you know the numbers) and more down to earth approach , hope you two guys meet and we get new insights. PS: a number I would like to see and analise is the historical progression of the Median GDP per capita. Meaning what the median person'a revenue over history? GDP per capita grows but the growth that matters for the average people is the median and in general how this growth is destributed.
It is crazy that Whatifalthist is so popular. His videos are a new low for video essays on RUclips. They rely so much on conjecture and pseuedoscientific concepts. He always relies on evopsych "just so stories" and weird essentialism, like the German or Anglo "spirit throughout history". He is always falsely classifying ancients like Plato as "right wing" or "conservative" for his own agenda. I watched his video on a manifesto for the new right and he immediately starts getting into the "chain of being" as if its not a contentious, medieval view disregarded in contemporary science. He never engages in worldview comparison to show why his views are more successful than alternative ones. He also has these fake bibliographies of like 50 books he hasn't read on every video. I honestly don't believe anyone who knows what they are talking about would think WhatIfAltHist has anything interesting to say.
I would say he’s a good starting point on some topics to later dive deeper on my own. I’ve discovered some interesting books and/or intellectual rabbit holes from watching his videos whether or not his conclusions are correct. He wants to overfit things into TOE’s (theories of everything). I had a similar attitude when I was in my early 20’s. His problem is his world view is often based on his personal experiences or internet culture which are not representative of reality.
@@AFNick I have picked up the TOE part from him too. Young men tend to be a lot less modest in that regard, and often gravitate to these older books like those by Spengler or Quigley. WhatifAltHist also mostly cites older books from the 20th century that are much more ambitious and rely on more primitive methods and data. The most charitable reading of him is that he is just a young guy tinkering with ideas that might be above his head sometimes. I do think however that WhatifAltHist is very narcissistic, considers himself an academic and an intellectual and has also refereed to himself as a thought leader.
@@truediltomright. I said in another comment dude is like 20 years old that's like a baby. I give him a break in that regard. One of the few people I strongly agree with then strongly disagree with within the same paragraph
The so-called "Great Depression" is over blown. They taught us about it to scare us. My grandparents lived through it. Modern Americans are Consumers/Materialists. They cant imagine going into the store and not having 14 different kinds of mustard to choose from.
Both perspectives are valuable, the topic needs more discussion like this. More perspectives help to define the economy in terms that are meaningful to the people living within it.
I been to Nigeria, the US economy is nowhere as bad in Africa. The US doesn't look like the Congo. Nor Brazil and Argentina, I visited both countries, I lived in Brazil for 14 years. American are like overly pessimistic.
@@AFNick Brazil and Argentina, and even Chile are emerging market economy, sub-sahara African countries is not. Is underdeveloped. Probably the worst places to live. I think many people confuse the dog eat dog mentality with third world countries. Is different. America has an individualistic culture from protestantism, I have many criticism, like they pretend life is fair or you deserve what you got, I disagree is unfair and you can have thought of luck, but it is how America is.
I live in a "second world" economy, and yeah, we see the differences even just by proxy. E.g. Americans and my people don't have the same worries in life. They also don't think of spending money in a similar manner. People in my country are very poor, average yearly wage is like 30 times smaller than the price of an apartment. People that go to work in the West for a few months, come back sorta like kings - despite living modest lives in the West. Despite living with the remnants of socialist times in laws, politics, social security and most importantly *people's mentality* , old people are struggling with pensions that are not enough to pay for medicine - let alone pay for meat. Yes, meat. Prices here are similar to the US, and our wages are 10 times smaller. People live modest lives. The perks are social stuff and healthcare, more safety and collective care for one another, but then again, Nordic states have that AND they ain't poor. I wouldn't consider my country to be an ordered, normal country - an ideal that we struggle for. That's the goal - bare minimum of life where you don't have to worry about food on the table in a literal sense. Our "second world" status means we scrape by, but don't live in inhuman conditions. Third world has the added effect of poverty, epidemics, and state not being corrupt and sleazy - but outright against its' people. Rule of law still exists to a degree, albeit completely absent for the upper classes. Our cities are not ruins, that's what separates us from the third world etc. And when I hear "America is third world", I think to myself that those people imagine the whole US as being Skidrow. So it's an overdramatization and oversimplification.
While I understood that inflation will depend on what you consume, I have never thought in the frame of inflation being unevenly spread among generations exactly because of those different spending patterns. Thank you, this is very insightful video!
I think a lot of what you said actually supports the idea that this is existential. In particular it’s important to note that the circumstances facing young people are the forward looking circumstances, not the currently high consumption. Labour force participation continues to dwindle in the US and I believe that is mainly due to young people dropping out, as older people retire they won’t be backfilled with competent replacements and economic conditions will continue to worsen. This isn’t like the 70’s because the federal debt was around 12% of GDP then while it’s currently sitting around 125% of GDP. The amount of inflation necessary to address that issue will be much larger. Also, note that Ray Dalio’s well researched writing is generally quite pessimistic about our economic future. While the maker of that video may not articulate the issues that well or have better metrics to support their intuition I think their overall outlook is fairly accurate. The excessive stimulative policy has led to a very poor allocation of labour and capitol in the US and that has to be remediated at some point. Eventually debt burdens have to be reduced by a large amount and that’s going to be very painful economically. Lastly, while GDP is our best general metric it is far from a good measure of economic health in reality, all GDP is account equally but all goods and services do not have equal value or utility. I have some other abstract ideas on what better indicates our economic health and in my opinion they are not good.
I don't care what anyone else says, when the buying power of the average household is contracting, you are in recession. Anyone who is not already holding large non-cash assets realizes this.
Replace the modern definition of inflation with total money supply growth rate (hard to measure)and everything he says makes much more sense. The current definition of inflation is the embodiment of everything he's saying.
I am getting absolutely demolished by inflation despite making the most money I've ever made. I'm having a much harder time getting by than I was in 2017.
Asset bubbles are ongoing and the only thing that props up the economy at this point. All of it is made possible by mountains and mountains and mountains of printed or digital currency.
The key point that your diss video misses is that today is NOT like the 1970's, because we had a LOW debt to GDP ratio in the 70's, so we could jack the interest rates to 20 % to control inflation, no problem, bro, and interest on the debt didn't rise much, both because the debt was like 30 % of GDP, AND most of the government debt was long term debt, so interest on the debt didn't ratchet up to the new rates much. What you should really be comparing today to is the late 1940's. THIS is the period when debt to GDP was over 100 %, and the key difference between now and the 1940's, is that we DID cut spending dramatically (austerity), AND let inflation run hot for a few years, to bring the debt back down, and everything was fine, if you didn't own any 2 % war bonds, because again, most of the war debt was long term at low rates. The problem now is that we CANT easily cut spending, because we are not ending an unprecedentedly expensive world war, but starting a new one, and one that we only send our dollars to fight, not our people (!!), AND we now have all the bills of the New Deal (Social Security Ponzi Scheme running out of 'new investors'), and the Great Society (Medicare) all coming due, as the baby boomers retire. Another problem is that most of the government's current debt is short term, so even modestly higher rates will hit hard in interest payments, so unwinding the current debt will need a LOT more inflation than the 1940's or the 1970's. I actually hope we do have a revolution, because the current system is quite unjust, and needs to be replaced with something better, or at least something that doesn't take so much of our incomes for government.
I do think Milei is kinda right, Argentina needs to balance its budget, you have a 200% yearly inflation rate. I just think giving up monetary sovereignty and dollarizing the economy is a bad idea. But government spending has gone too far in Argentina and the country nearly entered a hyper inflationary scenario like Venezuela, the only reason Argentina didn't is because it is a democracy and the people voted out the politicians that did that.
@@stynnieuwenhuis9999 dollarization works well when you have a small economy like El Salvador, that doesn't produce much. I don't see Argentina dollarizing, the amount of dollar Milei needs to buy is just insane. So I keep the Peso and would balance budget amendment to avoid this from happening again.
Thank you for the review. You are obviously a very knowledgeable and insightful analyst. I’m trying to learn about the economy because I am transitioning into retirement which is a brave new world for me.
Economics is a social science like psychology or political science. Economics should by design and purpose reflect the wellbeing of the society. The Great Depression is called a depression for a reason. Back then the economics actually reflected the fact. Today the “Economics” do not reflect the wellbeing of society. If you’re indicators say everything is fine and people are depressed then you have a problem. Is the market wrong or the indicators wrong? The western economy broke in 2008.
A depression is a sustained contraction in GDP, spike in unemployment, and drop in living standards that is slow to recover (if it ever does). Using the term depression is a better desciription of the economies of Greece in the 2010s or Argentina, but not the current state of the US.
Food, healthcare, housing, and energy that are affordable when looked at together is what speaks to the happiness of a country. The lower classes of the U.S. are having it worse and worse every year. It has been this way for at least 30 years.
So you started the first few minutes by saying why you disagree but then made an hour long video agreeing with whatifalthist….. the points on which you disagree are pedantic
I don’t think lack of proof of assertions is pedantic. Also my outlook for a mild recession with the tail risk of 4-5% CPI average for the decade is nowhere near the depression he thinks is going on.
@@AFNick I appreciate the reply but the directionality is many magnitudes more important than the degree. In other words, WFAH is warning the public that they're being gaslit and you are disagreeing with him by saying its only a little bit of gaslighting or WFAH is telling all the frogs the pot is boiling GTFO now and you're saying he's exaggerating its only 50 degrees C. people cant survive in 50 c pot even though its only half the temperature of boiling.
I think when he talks about the managerial class we have to consider the power and threats not just in private sector but HHS telling people how to run families, justice system, IMF and world banks and WHO who loan money with "social justice" prerogatives such as accept gay marriage do this or that if you want a loan. In fact, even business loans today come with DEI initiative management programs. So it is not just about the numbers employed in managerial class but the coercive powers which is not free market. This would be an interesting study of inefficiencies.
I love your analysis. I think you provide a level of nuance that few people get. I'm I am Gen Z, and I know it is very hard. But I also know that to own a home, I just have to run out the clock until the boomers die out.
Hey Nick, Great video, but there is an annoying echo when you speak. It is present in most of your videos, but not all. Have you considered getting a decent microphone for recordings?
@@AFNick It seems like there is still light echoing most of the time. On the last video I also noticed some jiggling of right-left channels and some sibilance. I wonder if the mic is too far, or your room gives too much reflections. It’s not bad by any means, but it is not as good as many other youtubers. Maybe you could give a lav mic a try at some point?
@@AFNicktry hanging sound / moving blankets on the walls that are not in your video frame. Also put acoustic panels on your ceiling and carpet on the floor. That will absorb the echo in the room. It’s not enough to use post processing of audio, when the original audio is already super echoey.
I don't think it will have another depression, but a Japan style crisis is very possible. We aren't there yet. A pension crisis is possible too. The American pension system is run like a Ponzi scheme, you need to do something that Chile did during the Pinochet's government and change the pension system to resemble more like a 401k or the Private system than it is. I studied the pension system and it got me worried.
@@AFNickI still think the government will pay the pensioner, but how, through money printing causing inflation, the only reason this didn't happen in Greece is because they did not have monetary sovereignty.
Right off the bat, you're missing the mark by calling this a "milder version of the 1970s". If you measure inflation the same way it was measured in 1980, it is at least as bad, if not worse than the 1970s.
I use alternative inflation data based on private sector data but at BLS component weights, and it’s still materially lower than the 1970’s. Gold went from $35 to $800 in 1970’s (9.62% CAGR) and official numbers were 7.25% a year on average for a decade. Both of those metrics are worse than what’s happening today. Like this video if I should make a video on “the true rate of inflation”.
@@AFNick My question is what sectors you're looking at with your data. I don't think inflation has been evenly distributed across the economy. So, looking at gold price, while I think is a good measure, doesn't necessarily capture price increases for basic necessities like food and housing, and 1980s inflation data would obviously not include things like consumer electronics, which could be skewing other metrics to show a lower rate of inflation. I would like to see a detailed video on the true rate of inflation, for certain.
@@moxygenpathogen7678 Yes I am. I might even do a reaction to his cope video because that one shows the greater divide between our economic/political outlook.
The yield curve is the most inverted for the longest duration ever. And it is STILL inverted against a backdrop of the most leveraged economy ever. Sir, as a 25 year macroeconomic hedge fund industry veteran, your video won’t age well. An economic collapse is certainty.
I got the same comments from my reaction to him three years ago. I agree with the accuracy of yield curve and the high probability of recession with 12 months. However that’s not nearly the same as what WhatifAltHist is claiming for the economic outcome. Would a milder version of Japan in the 1990’s or the 1970’s be a “depression” by your definition?
I watched one of your videos and thought you were a smart guy based on what you said about "old money" supporting left-wing politicians. But here I disagree with you on almost everything you said. I could make many comments, but what struck me most was your conclusion on this issue. Research shows that unhappy people are more likely to spend money on consumption as a way to improve their emotional state. This is often referred to as "retail therapy." For a consumption-driven economy, this might lead to short-term economic growth: people buy more goods, increasing company profits and stimulating production.
However, there are several serious drawbacks: If an economy is continuously supported by the spending of an unhappy population, it creates an unstable foundation. Depressed or stressed people may accumulate debt, leading to long-term economic collapse as they become unable to continue their spending habits. Social and Psychological Impact: Excessive consumption does not lead to lasting happiness. Constantly chasing material goods can increase stress, worsen mental health, and deepen inequality, as people often spend money they don’t have to meet societal expectations. Lack of Sustainable Development: A country’s progress relies not only on economic factors but also on social stability and the mental well-being of its citizens. Keeping a population in a constant state of sadness or dissatisfaction impairs quality of life and hinders societal growth.
An analogy to broiler chickens, which are kept in the dark to accelerate weight gain, is appropriate here. In both cases-whether it's boosting meat production or encouraging consumer spending among a gloomy population-the immediate goal is profit. However, this short-term gain overlooks long-term consequences. For the chickens, this leads to ethical concerns and declining product quality; for society, it leads to deep social and economic challenges.
Many experts argue that happiness and well-being are better indicators of societal success than economic consumption alone. Modern economic approaches, such as "welfare economics" or "happiness indices," emphasize that successful societies should aim for sustainable growth, which includes the emotional, physical, and social well-being of their citizens.
In the short term, an unhappy population might indeed boost the economy through increased spending. However, this is a dead-end strategy. A sustainable and prosperous society balances economic growth with the well-being of its people. A country where citizens are happy is more productive, creative, and resilient in the long term.
I think we can both be right about this one. It’s the inverse of the paradox of thrift. Recessions are the clear outs that reset the cycle when it becomes unsustainable. I also agree that GDP does not measure happiness, but a fleeting emotional state cannot be a reliable benchmark to measure an economy. Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
@@AFNick Although I understand your point about recessions resetting unsustainable economic cycles, I strongly disagree with the idea that they are simply part of a natural and necessary process. It may seem like a cycle that the economy can 'play' multiple times, but the human cost, particularly in terms of psychological trauma and societal damage, is far too high. We cannot treat recessions as mere economic events while ignoring the profound and long-lasting scars they leave on individuals and entire generations. The Great Depression is a clear example of this: people were driven to desperation, crime rates surged, and the psychological impact lasted for decades. These are not just temporary setbacks that can be undone once the economy recovers - we are talking about lost generations.
@@AFNick Additionally, I disagree with the notion that recessions are inevitable. Since the 1990s, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have actively worked to avoid recessions by injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the system. This has effectively postponed or mitigated recessions, but it has created new problems. Many 'zombie' companies - those that have been in significant debt for decades - are kept afloat artificially. Rather than allowing the market to naturally adjust, these companies are propped up, accumulating more and more debt without real productivity gains. This artificially sustained economy creates a scenario where deep-rooted structural problems are hidden, and consumer dissatisfaction grows
Hey Nick have you read the book End Times by Peter Turchin? It's a fantastic book that whatifalthist gets a lot of his source material from and gives relevant economic and social analysis on the average American. Great video as always!
Good, fair treatment of whatifalthist. Ruyard is quite insightful, and one of the reasons his videos appeal to me is that he tries very hard to build an approach to explaining things that is both global and historical - we may be in such and such a situation, but maybe it compares to Southeast Asia in the 15th century. I like this approach because, when I hear a lot of experts talking, they implicitly speak from a very narrow framework, and it annoys me. However, what also annoys me is how Ruyard just presumes from his subscription count that he can speak authoritatively on things that much more experienced minds have spent years contemplating. He claims that he does not have a college degree, and I cast no aspersions on this. For the right type of mind, avoiding higher education and teaching yourself can be much more effective in arriving at a compelling world-view. But, he is slightly dismissive of academics, and by definition, someone who has studied a single topic for years on end is more likely to be authoritative than someone who has not. Also, he gets a lot of details wrong. A young Jesus in the temple teaching the high priests is not a way to go through life. It will get you shanked (or crucified) in a hurry. And on the topic of economics, his shortcomings are apparent. Perhaps he did not intend this, but it did sound like a bit of a right wing conspiracy - the global elites are lying to us about how good things are, they just want to line their pockets, they have a wokeist agenda specifically designed to humiliate and impoverish you, etc. And yes, there is something very wrong when all you hear is how great things are but then you apply for 1000 jobs and get nothing but rejection emails. But I seriously doubt it's intentional. The thing about capitalism is that it can go wrong even when the actors within it are perfectly decent people. A C-suite may be full of honest people who love their families, contribute to their communities, donate to charity, but they may still decide to destroy a small town that depends on a factory, because the rules of the game require that you up the stock price, and layoffs are one way to do that, and if you don't play by these rules, you can be damn sure that someone else is there waiting to take your place. And this is not to say that capitalism is bad - this is just how it operates. And full disclosure, I have tried to warn him of these things in his comments. He doesn't respond for whatever reason.
The US has high and growing inequality. But it’s important to try to find longitudinal data. The top 10%’s share of total wealth is growing faster vs. middle and lower class - which is a potential issue. BUT - there’s very high mobility - so that bottom 10% and top 10% are significantly different pools of people each year. Historically, between ages 25 and 60, >70% of people reach the top income quintile for at least 1 year, with 40% reaching the top 5%. ~45% of people change income quintiles over a 5 year period. So - while the rich are getting a greater share - the rich isn’t an entity. Many of those current rich folks taking a bigger share used to be a part of “the poor” This ain’t to say you’re not more likely to wind up rich if you start out rich, that rich people can’t wield power and connections to increase their chance of staying rich, or that there aren’t inherent problems to overly high inequality even with great mobility. But, when it comes to mobility, the US is much better vs. the majority of rest of world. It’s easy to think the rich just inherit their money and automatically have enough advantage to stay there. But statistically in the US, very little inherited wealth lasts more than 3 generations. With significant inheritance, from generation 1, 60% of wealth is lost by the end of life of generation 2, and 90% by the third generation. 1 makes it, 2 spends it, 3 depletes it. The average person gets most of their financial knowledge b fore the age of 20, primarily from their parents. So generation 1 is successful and frugal. Generation 2 remembers some years when they weren’t yet rich, but has felt financially secure for most of their life and spends more freely while making less. Generation 3 sees gen 2 in the spending years of their life, and neither builds good discipline nor inherits enough to spend like their parents did.
Rudyard has some good content but he’s a flaky zoomer kid with no understanding of what real economic hardship is or economics in general. That goofy kid should stick to history and anthropology. That guy’s other fantasy is the incels rising up to fight back against the injustices of society. Hopefully he’ll first work on doing a proper push-up
What if those who own USA government Bonds such as countries as China could influence the ideas of which USA decides to use their military? Since USA is not a mass manufacturer like China but a massive military power could not they lease out their power via their loans and debt in Treasury bonds?
I don't have the ability to do this right now but I would like to write a book about State owned Enterprises in China Vs. State subsidized enterprises in the private sector of America. I have so many ideas which I want to do which I would be able to do myself when I can be empowered to do so then I have to outsource some of the work. Japan is peaceful clean society compared to formerly Sweden. Japan took a loan from the UN and now they have to follow the demographic replacement program for low birthrate countries which they then have to import foreigners who are not making crimes that they did not have much of those types of crimes before.
Pretty good, I like your takes and I agree about the Blackrock conspiracies, it never seemed real. I don't know much about the other stuff, but it's been my opinion since Trump that the US as a federal reserve currency is pretty much done, so inflation will increase for quite a bit of time as some countries divest. If people decided to let it like that, it does not surprise me. Even Trump has that policy, so if he wins, he'll get what he wants this time. War is quite possible. I think the nuclear thing is overblown. Major powers can have wars that are conventional if they decide to do so. I won't be total wars, but wars nevertheless. The US/China war seems inevitable and both countries are preparing economically and separating themselves in the supply chain. People want it too, at least in the US. It will be the last attempt of the Empire to keep it's geopolitical position. As far as the intersectional feminist stuff. I agree it's the advertisers, but it's part of their training. They are trained to divide people in groups and they select those groups. Disney wants young people, children mainly. So they will do things that are good for them, not some grown ups that still wants to stay at that age. So obviously the movies are lower quality and they try to appeal to all the groups they identified. People see that as an attack on them, which sometimes is true, but most of the time not really. It's still annoying they would destroy IPs like this. They should stick with purely children stuff.
@@AFNickHDI is dropping in America. Google reading war, whole language (whole words, sight words...) and functional illiteracy. It was happening for 20-25 years. Basically they were teaching kids how to fake reading not how to read. It's not all population, but substantial amount. You can look at overdose epidemic to see this illiterate people killing their customers because they can't figure out how to conduct their business. Manufacturing productivity gone down. And people complain they can't find workers
Most of his points I have discussed years ago in older videos. Hopefully, there weren’t too many references to older videos, but I do not want to waste the viewers time by repeating myself when I have an already done a more elaborate explanation elsewhere.
@8:41 "you can't live in denial" Don't economists deny that planned obsolescence is going on? Where is the annual data on the depreciation of automobiles purchased by consumers? What is *Net Domestic Product* ?
Planned obsolescence is real issue that most of the financial community is aware of is happening. I don’t think anyone outside of a few corporate PR departments are denying that.
@@psikeyhackr6914 Does it matter? Most knowledge doesn’t come from a textbook. See the history of lawsuits related to planned obsolescence if you need written proof.
@@AFNick Then what is the point of school and textbooks? Psychological conditioning to be subservient to Authority? Waste students time so teachers can make money? We should just create a K-12 National Recommend Reading List.
Credit expansion, paired with fiscal dominance, doesn't mean there is healthy economic expansion. Spending does not equal a good economy. That's why gdp is flawed. You gotta take a look at production. And that is definitely going down. Across the board. That's why we have stagflation. And that's why things will just continue to get worse.
Manufacturing output isn’t down. I would agree that white collar worker productivity is down, but that’s a product of three generations of a subpar education system and technology making many jobs too easy to replace. Stagflation is caused by governments restricting supply of goods, yet printing money to pay their bills. In the 1970’s this was oil/commodities and today this is housing and healthcare.
@@AFNick Manufacturing isn't down short term. But that's just because we're still in the ripples of the bullwhip effect. Currently, we're having a short term up-tick, but the trend has been down. That's because the inflation of the money supply is putting pressure on consumers, so replacement of inventories is slower for things that are in less demand. But inventories still need to be replaced. We're just going to see continuing drop off on what gets ordered, which means that manufacturing will lag again after this bump. Also, it's not just the cost of a house. Property taxes lag, so they are still going up and will continue to bite into the consumer. And insurance costs for cars and housing has also had a huge bump up. I don't think you're taking into consideration the slowdown because you're seeing the government spending as legitimate gdp, when that's only going to keep prices going up as the money filters through the general economy. You think it has to be supply of things, but you forget the curve also deals with demand caused by the oversupply of currency being spent inefficiently into the market.
@@geoffgjof Insurance costs are driven by increased healthcare costs, and higher wages which are needed to pay higher housing costs (taxes included). Manufacturing has cycles, but US manufacturing output (not employment from manufacturing) is still in a long term uptrend. The government spending is a whole another can of worms I can’t go into on this thread, but you are right is that government cannot create value, it only redistributes the productivity of the private sector.
@@AFNick Insurance costs are driven by much more than that. Losses due to natural disasters and crime rates going up are a large part of it as well because that means they have to recoup losses.
25:30 i dont think the prices of houses will drastically decrease once the boomers leave their houses to their children, the children will just rent them out or sell them at market or even higher value. Why would they sell them at a discount? 26:00 housing prices in italy are the same they haven't declined
@@AFNick not from individuals but from the massive investment firms that are buying up most housing right now. They buy them even at a high price because they will recoup through rent. This is happening right now. Not a "when the boomers die" future scenario.
@@wyattbottorff2473 why would investment firms buy houses if bond yields are higher than cap rates and require a lot less work and maintenance expenses? The rush for investors buying housing was a product of ZIRP.
@@AFNick private equity, real estate firms, foreign investors looking to park their money and other rent seeking parasites, there's enough money at the top to buy up these houses but not enough for regular americans.
@@AFNickJapan has shrinking population. So prices of houses in Tokyo are still rising as soon as I remember. They abandoned small communities and gathered where there are jobs. So prices may still be high even with shrinking population if jobs are concentrated in one place
I know that the people who make the economic statistics are lying. I work for a supply chain company and maybe it is a regional issue, but I have the data for the shipping requirements of several million people every single month we are down year over year. Something is very wrong these last few years. Look at UPS and their delivery data and profitability and package numbers as an example.
There're non quantifiable but vital parts of the economy where the whole is more (or less) than the sum of the parts... which is what he seems to be trying to communicate, and you are somewhat ignoring through overt analysis. Complexity theory would be a much more efficient model to use than the inherently reductive quantitative approach of an economist.
But does it really matter if the stock market is up when what seems like over half of Americans can't afford groceries? Like yipee! The wealhty are getting wealthier! Im not someone who hates wealthy people for being wealthy, that is not the issue. But it is an issue that the rick keep getting richer & the poor keep getting poorer. I think that really reflects on issues with our economy, considering that the US is supposed to be the land of opportunity. You can work yourself to the bone & barely be getting by today.
A little to hard on him imo I think it would have been better if you summarized the points you agree and disagree with giving a less critical vibe I do appreciate the insights at the same time! Just my honest thoughts!!
Socialism is the trade of sacrificing economic vitality for short/medium term social stability. That’s a whole another can of worms beyond this reaction video.
Dude you're wrong about deaths of despair. It is a Broken window fallacy. If people were not drinking themselves to death, they would use their money to benefit the economy. Like opening a business, paying for private school etc. So depression doesn't help the economy. There is no growth or increase in productivity drinking yourself to death. Whereas if they took their alcohol money and saved it for their kids education open a business, you would get an increase in productivity and real world wealth
There’s a difference between spending twice as much on clothes at the mall, eating an extra appetizer at a restaurant, or binge shopping on Amazon due to being unhappy, versus drinking to death. The data points to mild depression stimulating excess consumption.
@AFNick Again read Thomas Sowell look at the unseen opportunity cost. Those people could have opened a business, took an educational course to improve themselves on Coursea etc. That creates actual wealth, productivity and growth. If I drink myself to death, buy useless crap on Amazon it enrichs Amazon but doesn't create value in society. That's the main problem we have today Jack Welchian greed etc. You are making money without creating value in society with buy backs, Wheeling and Dealing etc instead of innovating and making products that grow the economy.
It is textbook broken window fallacy. Firms are depressing people to spend money on things they would not have. I throw a brick thru your window 🪟 to get you to hire the window workman and replace a window you would not have bought. You probably had good uses for that money until you saw a brick in your living room...
22:00 I can understand it being good for the economy short term but what about longterm though.doesn’t it create problems due to bad incentives created by impulsive spending?
I believe your desire to uphold the official numbers and statistics as if they are reliable to be a fundamentally religious desire. It seems as if you prefer to believe these numbers to be trustworthy, because if you did not then you fear there would be no standard. Throughout this video you consistently deride experience, while paying lip service to said experience in the common way leftists do (not saying you're leftist). It very much seems like you have a personal vested interest in pretending to care about the experience of the average person, while generally preferring to simply accept the managerial class's numbers. You confidently speak about GDP per capita, the average wages of Americans going up, but quality of life is DOWN compared to our parents. The odds of buying a house for most millennials and gen z is astronomically worse than our parents had it. This is not anecdotal, and is supported by your magical "official numbers". By this metric alone we cannot be honest while talking about the validity of official "data".
You are heavily out of touch and far removed from the reality of what the working class is going through today. You are either in denial or complicit to the warping of the data/reality.
The economy is not doing great, is a mild version of the 1970. I do feel inflation is not going up but down. Yeah it might be higher than it is but I think by 2025 to 2026, inflation will reach the center of the target.
@@AFNickTheres one where he talks about the cantillon effect in the video title. Any one of his latest vids. Also He recently did a livestream titled "when the dollar fails stable coins will rise GRESHAMS LAW"
I like to use the nominal GDP when measuring the total economy, but per capita I us the Purchasing power parity. Is better then the gdp per capita nominal.
The problem is how accurate is the adjustment factor for PPP. That comparison rate is highly politicized to make economies look stronger or weaker than they actually are depending on the country.
I am just annoyed and baffled that we still use something as annoying as money to deal with eachother. Becauee we feel like we can't trust eachother with trading and other systems. And yet we still get massively exploited with the real difference being people being quicker to give in to their fantasies of succes. They bevome less demnading about worth because even if the money itself is concrete, well cash not digital money that is just turning money into faith and if you're a sinner the church will excommunicate you from your ability to live without becoming a social menace. It is always surprising to me how willing people are to fuck themselves over long term because short term they believe they save some time and effort. I hate finance and human greed. It gets in the fucking way of cooperating and actually getting shit done is what I like to say. But I realise it is not the system that is flawed. It is the humans that make any system flawed.
For all the problems of money, the invention of currency was a better system than convoluted network of IOU's that operated commerce before coins were developed. Read David Graeber's Debt: the First 5000 Years for more details.
@@AFNickthe iou's only became a thing after currency was invented. You know greedy banks instead of just being a vault for safeguarding money. Well if you studied finance you should be aware of it. Paper money were iou's from the bank to give that amount of gold in exchange for the piece of paper. Taking that IOU out of rotarian. Or they should have. What happened was they got greedy they started out not only keeping more of those iou notes in rotation, they actively started "lending" more gold to others as long as they paid back with a bit extra. Untl people started to novice that the amount of Total gold in notes was lower than the amount of gold in the vault. Ending up in a bank rush. Financial wars are even fought by trying to fuck over the value of a local currency. And honestly the worth of money is becoming so fucking abstract it is literally getting in my way of functioning as a person. People keep telling me prices keep rising everywhere except in paychecks, and that is just how it is. And they demand that I pay way more for less food that I did only 10 years ago. Trying to play with money is losing all its worth to me and others. Real question is when the civil unrest starts because people keep failing to keep their value exchange systems and those that govern those systems in check. Like I said humans are the issue of any system. But as a system money is too easily manipulated by outside forces. And now they are trying to phase out hard cash. Trying to get people to believe the amount of numbers on the screen. Represent actual concrete wealth. Can't even get gold back. Not that even gold has a set value. But at least it is a limited amount and thus more stable in perceiced value. It is as if the whole finance sector is trying to convince people to see money as jesus and worship it. To not look at the faults of the system and absolutely never allow any other ideas to surface. Imagine what would happen with the bankingworld and people that give you money and those that believe they are in charge of all the money and thus the deciding factor of worth of everything in life including the worth of a person and their ability to live. Like apparantly your life is only worth as much as those you would have to depend on to get money. Which in my mind is insane. No amount of money is worth having others decide my worth. And if people would get in my way of surviving simply because of the pricing, their lives become worth to me than eating for example. Money isn't used for convenience of trading and saving time for everyone. It is used for social control. Trying to convince you that the amount of money you have and your ability to get it is all that decides your personal worth as an individual. Not who you are or what you can do. But how much money you have. And it is disgusting. I mean would you want to consider the idea of having your face bashed in because someone saw the risk of hurting you and getting what they want as more worth it that paying you an outrageous amount for certain items. Worth is too abstract. Money now is even more abstract than back in the day.
Could you do a video on "The Coming American Boogaloo: Civil War 2"? Also Rudyard Lynch did a video on it as well. P.S. My understanding on the American Healthcare part was that he is saying "Experts claim the US healthcare system is good but most people feel it does not provide enough value for the cost paid.".
Asset bubbles are ongoing and the only thing that props up the economy at this point. All of it is made possible by mountains and mountains and mountains of printed or digital currency.
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I think you are missing the main point that whatifaltist is pointing out which is that the actual economic situation for the average person is divorced from what an economist would say is a booming economy. A lot of quality of life metrics are quite low because income inequality has gone up. Total wealth in the system doesn’t matter if only a small fraction of the populace benefits from it.
Absolutely.
Interpreting his video as merely critiquing economic theory is a major oversight. It isn't a critique, it is a condemnation.
I believe Rudyard said this in his video.
also it’s true that since three years ago economy went crazy bad. every single millennial no matter where they live, they are struggling on every aspect of life, not only finance.
That is the point whatifaltist is trying to get across, but he doesn't seem to understand why this is happening.
You want to own a diversified portfolio that invests in the United States as a whole. Therefore, the economies success is your success as well. If you don't, you'll be left behind. It's really that simple. But takes a bit of financial knowledge, a lot of discipline and some good luck.
@@stevenlarson3316 And throw away all sense of morality....
Great video Nick, thank you for critiquing Whatifalthist. He throws a lot of information out there as facts but needs pushback.
Glad you enjoyed it
He's a smart dude but he's like 21 or something. Young intelligent people are great and I look forward to the wisdom he gains over the next decade.
Homie rails about socialism but has clearly not read any Marx.
collab discussion with rudyard would be great.
@@effexon I’m up for it if he is.
@@HashFace253he's ready a lot of Marx. Not that that's a flex.
Solid video dude, i just found you but Im subscribed. I love finding creators like you who spend their time on their actual content instead of editing or animations. Keep telling people what they need to hear, I definitely learned a couple things
Thanks
He had a statistic on what it takes to live comfortably in Mississippi (where I live) and it was $172,000. I make less than 50k and am pretty comfortable. It’s funny because he claims how statistics can be used to distort reality while doing the same thing himself.
Incredible video. I've sent think link to several friends. In my 18 year career, I have never seen a more unbiased, intelligent, well thought out and backed up "take" regarding the topics discussed.
Great video. I like how wide ranging Rudyard's videos are but for those who watch them without a lot of external context it's possibly easy to be a little too swayed by the flashing up of various graphs, pictures and drawings that may or may not actually support (or sometimes even actually be related to) what he's saying. You were very polite throughout your reaction and provided many intelligent and knowledgeable counterpoints and context.
I watched one of your videos and thought you were a smart guy based on what you said about "old money" supporting left-wing politicians. But here I disagree with you on almost everything you said.
I could make many comments, but what struck me most was your conclusion on this issue.
Research shows that unhappy people are more likely to spend money on consumption as a way to improve their emotional state. This is often referred to as "retail therapy." For a consumption-driven economy, this might lead to short-term economic growth: people buy more goods, increasing company profits and stimulating production.
However, there are several serious drawbacks:
If an economy is continuously supported by the spending of an unhappy population, it creates an unstable foundation. Depressed or stressed people may accumulate debt, leading to long-term economic collapse as they become unable to continue their spending habits.
Social and Psychological Impact: Excessive consumption does not lead to lasting happiness. Constantly chasing material goods can increase stress, worsen mental health, and deepen inequality, as people often spend money they don’t have to meet societal expectations.
Lack of Sustainable Development: A country’s progress relies not only on economic factors but also on social stability and the mental well-being of its citizens. Keeping a population in a constant state of sadness or dissatisfaction impairs quality of life and hinders societal growth.
An analogy to broiler chickens, which are kept in the dark to accelerate weight gain, is appropriate here. In both cases-whether it's boosting meat production or encouraging consumer spending among a gloomy population-the immediate goal is profit. However, this short-term gain overlooks long-term consequences. For the chickens, this leads to ethical concerns and declining product quality; for society, it leads to deep social and economic challenges.
Many experts argue that happiness and well-being are better indicators of societal success than economic consumption alone. Modern economic approaches, such as "welfare economics" or "happiness indices," emphasize that successful societies should aim for sustainable growth, which includes the emotional, physical, and social well-being of their citizens.
In the short term, an unhappy population might indeed boost the economy through increased spending. However, this is a dead-end strategy. A sustainable and prosperous society balances economic growth with the well-being of its people. A country where citizens are happy is more productive, creative, and resilient in the long term.
@@maxbig9021 I dont believe Nick is trying to say retail therapy is a non-issue nor that it is sustainable in the long term, merely that it has little bearing on the economic situation in the present moment, and that which it does have is positive. It is entirely justified to present this fact as a counter argument to the position presented by Rudyard in his video.
Rudyard's skepticism is great, but that needs to be paired with skepticism towards alternative sources of information and theories. Both need to happen to have a coherent critique
Just because the mainstream narrative is wrong it doesn’t mean it’s exact opposite is correct by default.
@AFNick Exactly! A lot of right-leaning people forget that!
This is how you finally get the truth - challenge and verification. I hope you guys remain civil and keep the discussion quality up.
Qualify of life is declining. There is a divorce between "the economy" and reality, if you are a major shareholder in blackrock then youre probably having the time of your life right now, otherwise not so much.
GDP also seems to not consider staggering debt (both government and private) and how that eats into a countrys people.
A decent effort. Please do more. Because we cannot rely on the official CPI, Measuring inflation, the common person looks at wages and purchasing power of their parents and grandparents. Those show that a man can work to support a wife and three kids, go on vacation, pay for college, etc. because a factory worker or restaurant managers used to be able to do this, but no longer can, the typical citizen is frustrated and angry at the Mary Poppins economic experts.
Again, please do more of these.
Respect for chin checking whatif on this. I still feel like he's directionally correct, but as a fellow number enthusiast I am glad someone sorted this out in depth.
Your work is truly appreciated
Thanks
About the investment companies, the big issue with those is that they are voting the shares that they bought with other peoples money, You buy an ETF and your money goes to buy shares in companies and the people who run the ETF vote on your behalf. Thats what makes those big investment firms potentially powerful. This was the subject of the INDEX act. The INDEX act makes sense. Probably many bad decisions made by Disney are being made due to the influence of these investment firms and the fact people who own ETFs, the common investors, are decoupled from them in voting power.
In theory the Index Act sounds great, but in practice how many small shareholders know anything about corporate actions to vote on them prudently.
The other problem which I discussed in my ESG reaction to Felix Rex, is that many institutional investors dangerously put their blind trust in proxy voting firms like ISS and Glass Lewis who end up having too much power themselves.
The hype is real! Nick was fast on the response video!
Loving your channel man! All the videos I’ve seen so far are very thorough and thoughtful. Subscribed!
really nice video and aproach I am a big fun of rudyard and becoming yours as well .
I like the data focused review (even you didn't presented any but I trust you know the numbers) and more down to earth approach , hope you two guys meet and we get new insights.
PS: a number I would like to see and analise is the historical progression of the Median GDP per capita. Meaning what the median person'a revenue over history? GDP per capita grows but the growth that matters for the average people is the median and in general how this growth is destributed.
It is crazy that Whatifalthist is so popular. His videos are a new low for video essays on RUclips. They rely so much on conjecture and pseuedoscientific concepts. He always relies on evopsych "just so stories" and weird essentialism, like the German or Anglo "spirit throughout history". He is always falsely classifying ancients like Plato as "right wing" or "conservative" for his own agenda.
I watched his video on a manifesto for the new right and he immediately starts getting into the "chain of being" as if its not a contentious, medieval view disregarded in contemporary science. He never engages in worldview comparison to show why his views are more successful than alternative ones.
He also has these fake bibliographies of like 50 books he hasn't read on every video. I honestly don't believe anyone who knows what they are talking about would think WhatIfAltHist has anything interesting to say.
I would say he’s a good starting point on some topics to later dive deeper on my own. I’ve discovered some interesting books and/or intellectual rabbit holes from watching his videos whether or not his conclusions are correct.
He wants to overfit things into TOE’s (theories of everything). I had a similar attitude when I was in my early 20’s.
His problem is his world view is often based on his personal experiences or internet culture which are not representative of reality.
He is the most popular RUclipsr relative to production quality on this entire site. That’s the part that amazes me.
@@AFNick I have picked up the TOE part from him too. Young men tend to be a lot less modest in that regard, and often gravitate to these older books like those by Spengler or Quigley. WhatifAltHist also mostly cites older books from the 20th century that are much more ambitious and rely on more primitive methods and data.
The most charitable reading of him is that he is just a young guy tinkering with ideas that might be above his head sometimes. I do think however that WhatifAltHist is very narcissistic, considers himself an academic and an intellectual and has also refereed to himself as a thought leader.
@@truediltomright. I said in another comment dude is like 20 years old that's like a baby. I give him a break in that regard. One of the few people I strongly agree with then strongly disagree with within the same paragraph
@@truediltomyour presumption that because a book is old it makes it inaccuracate is fallacious. The progressive view of history is naive.
The so-called "Great Depression" is over blown. They taught us about it to scare us. My grandparents lived through it. Modern Americans are Consumers/Materialists. They cant imagine going into the store and not having 14 different kinds of mustard to choose from.
I agree. There isn’t one happening
@@AFNick I'm glad I found your channel. I subscribed.
@@julesfalcone thanks
Both perspectives are valuable, the topic needs more discussion like this. More perspectives help to define the economy in terms that are meaningful to the people living within it.
I been to Nigeria, the US economy is nowhere as bad in Africa. The US doesn't look like the Congo. Nor Brazil and Argentina, I visited both countries, I lived in Brazil for 14 years. American are like overly pessimistic.
Someone who says the US is a third world country has never been to an emerging market country.
@@AFNick Brazil and Argentina, and even Chile are emerging market economy, sub-sahara African countries is not. Is underdeveloped. Probably the worst places to live. I think many people confuse the dog eat dog mentality with third world countries. Is different. America has an individualistic culture from protestantism, I have many criticism, like they pretend life is fair or you deserve what you got, I disagree is unfair and you can have thought of luck, but it is how America is.
I live in a "second world" economy, and yeah, we see the differences even just by proxy. E.g. Americans and my people don't have the same worries in life. They also don't think of spending money in a similar manner. People in my country are very poor, average yearly wage is like 30 times smaller than the price of an apartment. People that go to work in the West for a few months, come back sorta like kings - despite living modest lives in the West. Despite living with the remnants of socialist times in laws, politics, social security and most importantly *people's mentality* , old people are struggling with pensions that are not enough to pay for medicine - let alone pay for meat. Yes, meat. Prices here are similar to the US, and our wages are 10 times smaller. People live modest lives. The perks are social stuff and healthcare, more safety and collective care for one another, but then again, Nordic states have that AND they ain't poor. I wouldn't consider my country to be an ordered, normal country - an ideal that we struggle for. That's the goal - bare minimum of life where you don't have to worry about food on the table in a literal sense. Our "second world" status means we scrape by, but don't live in inhuman conditions. Third world has the added effect of poverty, epidemics, and state not being corrupt and sleazy - but outright against its' people. Rule of law still exists to a degree, albeit completely absent for the upper classes. Our cities are not ruins, that's what separates us from the third world etc.
And when I hear "America is third world", I think to myself that those people imagine the whole US as being Skidrow. So it's an overdramatization and oversimplification.
While I understood that inflation will depend on what you consume, I have never thought in the frame of inflation being unevenly spread among generations exactly because of those different spending patterns. Thank you, this is very insightful video!
You’re welcome. See my video on who benefits from inflation for more context.
It's way worse than you think. I'm gonna bet on that.
I think a lot of what you said actually supports the idea that this is existential. In particular it’s important to note that the circumstances facing young people are the forward looking circumstances, not the currently high consumption. Labour force participation continues to dwindle in the US and I believe that is mainly due to young people dropping out, as older people retire they won’t be backfilled with competent replacements and economic conditions will continue to worsen. This isn’t like the 70’s because the federal debt was around 12% of GDP then while it’s currently sitting around 125% of GDP. The amount of inflation necessary to address that issue will be much larger. Also, note that Ray Dalio’s well researched writing is generally quite pessimistic about our economic future. While the maker of that video may not articulate the issues that well or have better metrics to support their intuition I think their overall outlook is fairly accurate. The excessive stimulative policy has led to a very poor allocation of labour and capitol in the US and that has to be remediated at some point. Eventually debt burdens have to be reduced by a large amount and that’s going to be very painful economically. Lastly, while GDP is our best general metric it is far from a good measure of economic health in reality, all GDP is account equally but all goods and services do not have equal value or utility. I have some other abstract ideas on what better indicates our economic health and in my opinion they are not good.
I don't care what anyone else says, when the buying power of the average household is contracting, you are in recession.
Anyone who is not already holding large non-cash assets realizes this.
Replace the modern definition of inflation with total money supply growth rate (hard to measure)and everything he says makes much more sense. The current definition of inflation is the embodiment of everything he's saying.
I am getting absolutely demolished by inflation despite making the most money I've ever made. I'm having a much harder time getting by than I was in 2017.
Yo! The crazy man actually did it 🙌🎉
Asset bubbles are ongoing and the only thing that props up the economy at this point. All of it is made possible by mountains and mountains and mountains of printed or digital currency.
The key point that your diss video misses is that today is NOT like the 1970's, because we had a LOW debt to GDP ratio in the 70's, so we could jack the interest rates to 20 % to control inflation, no problem, bro, and interest on the debt didn't rise much, both because the debt was like 30 % of GDP, AND most of the government debt was long term debt, so interest on the debt didn't ratchet up to the new rates much. What you should really be comparing today to is the late 1940's. THIS is the period when debt to GDP was over 100 %, and the key difference between now and the 1940's, is that we DID cut spending dramatically (austerity), AND let inflation run hot for a few years, to bring the debt back down, and everything was fine, if you didn't own any 2 % war bonds, because again, most of the war debt was long term at low rates. The problem now is that we CANT easily cut spending, because we are not ending an unprecedentedly expensive world war, but starting a new one, and one that we only send our dollars to fight, not our people (!!), AND we now have all the bills of the New Deal (Social Security Ponzi Scheme running out of 'new investors'), and the Great Society (Medicare) all coming due, as the baby boomers retire. Another problem is that most of the government's current debt is short term, so even modestly higher rates will hit hard in interest payments, so unwinding the current debt will need a LOT more inflation than the 1940's or the 1970's. I actually hope we do have a revolution, because the current system is quite unjust, and needs to be replaced with something better, or at least something that doesn't take so much of our incomes for government.
I do think Milei is kinda right, Argentina needs to balance its budget, you have a 200% yearly inflation rate. I just think giving up monetary sovereignty and dollarizing the economy is a bad idea. But government spending has gone too far in Argentina and the country nearly entered a hyper inflationary scenario like Venezuela, the only reason Argentina didn't is because it is a democracy and the people voted out the politicians that did that.
Dollarization is the solution for Argentina due to poor central bank track record. See my video I did on Argentina for more details.
dollarization works becuase they screwed up too bad. no recovering from that might as well start over
@@stynnieuwenhuis9999 dollarization works well when you have a small economy like El Salvador, that doesn't produce much. I don't see Argentina dollarizing, the amount of dollar Milei needs to buy is just insane. So I keep the Peso and would balance budget amendment to avoid this from happening again.
@@diegoyanesholtz212 not an ideal situation especially considering their economic potential. But they cant manage their economy properly
Thank you for the review. You are obviously a very knowledgeable and insightful analyst. I’m trying to learn about the economy because I am transitioning into retirement which is a brave new world for me.
You’re welcome
Economics is a social science like psychology or political science. Economics should by design and purpose reflect the wellbeing of the society. The Great Depression is called a depression for a reason. Back then the economics actually reflected the fact.
Today the “Economics” do not reflect the wellbeing of society. If you’re indicators say everything is fine and people are depressed then you have a problem.
Is the market wrong or the indicators wrong?
The western economy broke in 2008.
A depression is a sustained contraction in GDP, spike in unemployment, and drop in living standards that is slow to recover (if it ever does). Using the term depression is a better desciription of the economies of Greece in the 2010s or Argentina, but not the current state of the US.
Food, healthcare, housing, and energy that are affordable when looked at together is what speaks to the happiness of a country. The lower classes of the U.S. are having it worse and worse every year. It has been this way for at least 30 years.
So you started the first few minutes by saying why you disagree but then made an hour long video agreeing with whatifalthist….. the points on which you disagree are pedantic
I don’t think lack of proof of assertions is pedantic. Also my outlook for a mild recession with the tail risk of 4-5% CPI average for the decade is nowhere near the depression he thinks is going on.
@@AFNick I appreciate the reply but the directionality is many magnitudes more important than the degree. In other words, WFAH is warning the public that they're being gaslit and you are disagreeing with him by saying its only a little bit of gaslighting or WFAH is telling all the frogs the pot is boiling GTFO now and you're saying he's exaggerating its only 50 degrees C. people cant survive in 50 c pot even though its only half the temperature of boiling.
I think when he talks about the managerial class we have to consider the power and threats not just in private sector but HHS telling people how to run families, justice system, IMF and world banks and WHO who loan money with "social justice" prerogatives such as accept gay marriage do this or that if you want a loan. In fact, even business loans today come with DEI initiative management programs. So it is not just about the numbers employed in managerial class but the coercive powers which is not free market. This would be an interesting study of inefficiencies.
great anaysis. do more of these - especially doom and gloom videos.
Thanks
I'm detecting some Austrian Macro-Economics from you Nick 👀
I do have some sympathy towards Austrian economics, but it has its own flaws too. See the iceberg of economics series for my full thoughts on it.
I love your analysis. I think you provide a level of nuance that few people get. I'm
I am Gen Z, and I know it is very hard. But I also know that to own a home, I just have to run out the clock until the boomers die out.
Hey Nick,
Great video, but there is an annoying echo when you speak. It is present in most of your videos, but not all. Have you considered getting a decent microphone for recordings?
I use a brand new blue yeti, and AI background noise removers already. It shouldn’t be a problem for any videos I’ve released since Jan 2024
@@AFNick It seems like there is still light echoing most of the time. On the last video I also noticed some jiggling of right-left channels and some sibilance. I wonder if the mic is too far, or your room gives too much reflections. It’s not bad by any means, but it is not as good as many other youtubers. Maybe you could give a lav mic a try at some point?
@@AFNicktry hanging sound / moving blankets on the walls that are not in your video frame. Also put acoustic panels on your ceiling and carpet on the floor. That will absorb the echo in the room. It’s not enough to use post processing of audio, when the original audio is already super echoey.
Rolling over the debt is a lot easier by understating inflation. Cost of living increases are also lower if inflation is understated.
I don't think it will have another depression, but a Japan style crisis is very possible. We aren't there yet. A pension crisis is possible too. The American pension system is run like a Ponzi scheme, you need to do something that Chile did during the Pinochet's government and change the pension system to resemble more like a 401k or the Private system than it is. I studied the pension system and it got me worried.
Pension system is a very underrated problem, that isn’t discussed nearly enough.
@@AFNickI still think the government will pay the pensioner, but how, through money printing causing inflation, the only reason this didn't happen in Greece is because they did not have monetary sovereignty.
The average home value in Springfield, IL is $154,831. Perhaps he could move there and live like a millionaire on his youtube "bullshit job" income
What to do after no more youtube "bullshit job" left ? Is there other jobs ?
Wiat is a young man. Hes smart but hes also on an accelerated time dilation. Ah youth 😊
The Fed has it's tool kit as well as the fiscal tools Congress has. No great depression 2.0. Inflation or very bad recession, it will be inflation.
Right off the bat, you're missing the mark by calling this a "milder version of the 1970s". If you measure inflation the same way it was measured in 1980, it is at least as bad, if not worse than the 1970s.
I use alternative inflation data based on private sector data but at BLS component weights, and it’s still materially lower than the 1970’s. Gold went from $35 to $800 in 1970’s (9.62% CAGR) and official numbers were 7.25% a year on average for a decade. Both of those metrics are worse than what’s happening today.
Like this video if I should make a video on “the true rate of inflation”.
@@AFNick My question is what sectors you're looking at with your data. I don't think inflation has been evenly distributed across the economy. So, looking at gold price, while I think is a good measure, doesn't necessarily capture price increases for basic necessities like food and housing, and 1980s inflation data would obviously not include things like consumer electronics, which could be skewing other metrics to show a lower rate of inflation.
I would like to see a detailed video on the true rate of inflation, for certain.
@AFNick so are you disagreeing with whatifalthist cause in another video you got the treadmill.
@@moxygenpathogen7678 Yes I am. I might even do a reaction to his cope video because that one shows the greater divide between our economic/political outlook.
Social mobility in America is bad, but is still better then in many other countries, just go to Latin America and see how it is.
The yield curve is the most inverted for the longest duration ever. And it is STILL inverted against a backdrop of the most leveraged economy ever.
Sir, as a 25 year macroeconomic hedge fund industry veteran, your video won’t age well. An economic collapse is certainty.
I got the same comments from my reaction to him three years ago.
I agree with the accuracy of yield curve and the high probability of recession with 12 months. However that’s not nearly the same as what WhatifAltHist is claiming for the economic outcome. Would a milder version of Japan in the 1990’s or the 1970’s be a “depression” by your definition?
@@AFNick AAA CMBS CURRENTLY taking 26% haircuts but 👌🏼
@@AFNick your view continues to be in 🤡 world based on the continuous deterioration.
I watched one of your videos and thought you were a smart guy based on what you said about "old money" supporting left-wing politicians. But here I disagree with you on almost everything you said.
I could make many comments, but what struck me most was your conclusion on this issue.
Research shows that unhappy people are more likely to spend money on consumption as a way to improve their emotional state. This is often referred to as "retail therapy." For a consumption-driven economy, this might lead to short-term economic growth: people buy more goods, increasing company profits and stimulating production.
However, there are several serious drawbacks:
If an economy is continuously supported by the spending of an unhappy population, it creates an unstable foundation. Depressed or stressed people may accumulate debt, leading to long-term economic collapse as they become unable to continue their spending habits.
Social and Psychological Impact: Excessive consumption does not lead to lasting happiness. Constantly chasing material goods can increase stress, worsen mental health, and deepen inequality, as people often spend money they don’t have to meet societal expectations.
Lack of Sustainable Development: A country’s progress relies not only on economic factors but also on social stability and the mental well-being of its citizens. Keeping a population in a constant state of sadness or dissatisfaction impairs quality of life and hinders societal growth.
An analogy to broiler chickens, which are kept in the dark to accelerate weight gain, is appropriate here. In both cases-whether it's boosting meat production or encouraging consumer spending among a gloomy population-the immediate goal is profit. However, this short-term gain overlooks long-term consequences. For the chickens, this leads to ethical concerns and declining product quality; for society, it leads to deep social and economic challenges.
Many experts argue that happiness and well-being are better indicators of societal success than economic consumption alone. Modern economic approaches, such as "welfare economics" or "happiness indices," emphasize that successful societies should aim for sustainable growth, which includes the emotional, physical, and social well-being of their citizens.
In the short term, an unhappy population might indeed boost the economy through increased spending. However, this is a dead-end strategy. A sustainable and prosperous society balances economic growth with the well-being of its people. A country where citizens are happy is more productive, creative, and resilient in the long term.
I think we can both be right about this one. It’s the inverse of the paradox of thrift. Recessions are the clear outs that reset the cycle when it becomes unsustainable. I also agree that GDP does not measure happiness, but a fleeting emotional state cannot be a reliable benchmark to measure an economy.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
@@AFNick Although I understand your point about recessions resetting unsustainable economic cycles, I strongly disagree with the idea that they are simply part of a natural and necessary process. It may seem like a cycle that the economy can 'play' multiple times, but the human cost, particularly in terms of psychological trauma and societal damage, is far too high. We cannot treat recessions as mere economic events while ignoring the profound and long-lasting scars they leave on individuals and entire generations. The Great Depression is a clear example of this: people were driven to desperation, crime rates surged, and the psychological impact lasted for decades. These are not just temporary setbacks that can be undone once the economy recovers - we are talking about lost generations.
@@AFNick Additionally, I disagree with the notion that recessions are inevitable. Since the 1990s, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have actively worked to avoid recessions by injecting massive amounts of liquidity into the system. This has effectively postponed or mitigated recessions, but it has created new problems. Many 'zombie' companies - those that have been in significant debt for decades - are kept afloat artificially. Rather than allowing the market to naturally adjust, these companies are propped up, accumulating more and more debt without real productivity gains. This artificially sustained economy creates a scenario where deep-rooted structural problems are hidden, and consumer dissatisfaction grows
Hey Nick have you read the book End Times by Peter Turchin? It's a fantastic book that whatifalthist gets a lot of his source material from and gives relevant economic and social analysis on the average American. Great video as always!
I haven’t read the book, but I have read several summaries of his work. He is certainly thought provking.
Good, fair treatment of whatifalthist. Ruyard is quite insightful, and one of the reasons his videos appeal to me is that he tries very hard to build an approach to explaining things that is both global and historical - we may be in such and such a situation, but maybe it compares to Southeast Asia in the 15th century. I like this approach because, when I hear a lot of experts talking, they implicitly speak from a very narrow framework, and it annoys me. However, what also annoys me is how Ruyard just presumes from his subscription count that he can speak authoritatively on things that much more experienced minds have spent years contemplating.
He claims that he does not have a college degree, and I cast no aspersions on this. For the right type of mind, avoiding higher education and teaching yourself can be much more effective in arriving at a compelling world-view. But, he is slightly dismissive of academics, and by definition, someone who has studied a single topic for years on end is more likely to be authoritative than someone who has not. Also, he gets a lot of details wrong. A young Jesus in the temple teaching the high priests is not a way to go through life. It will get you shanked (or crucified) in a hurry.
And on the topic of economics, his shortcomings are apparent. Perhaps he did not intend this, but it did sound like a bit of a right wing conspiracy - the global elites are lying to us about how good things are, they just want to line their pockets, they have a wokeist agenda specifically designed to humiliate and impoverish you, etc. And yes, there is something very wrong when all you hear is how great things are but then you apply for 1000 jobs and get nothing but rejection emails. But I seriously doubt it's intentional. The thing about capitalism is that it can go wrong even when the actors within it are perfectly decent people. A C-suite may be full of honest people who love their families, contribute to their communities, donate to charity, but they may still decide to destroy a small town that depends on a factory, because the rules of the game require that you up the stock price, and layoffs are one way to do that, and if you don't play by these rules, you can be damn sure that someone else is there waiting to take your place. And this is not to say that capitalism is bad - this is just how it operates.
And full disclosure, I have tried to warn him of these things in his comments. He doesn't respond for whatever reason.
The US has high and growing inequality. But it’s important to try to find longitudinal data.
The top 10%’s share of total wealth is growing faster vs. middle and lower class - which is a potential issue.
BUT - there’s very high mobility - so that bottom 10% and top 10% are significantly different pools of people each year.
Historically, between ages 25 and 60, >70% of people reach the top income quintile for at least 1 year, with 40% reaching the top 5%.
~45% of people change income quintiles over a 5 year period.
So - while the rich are getting a greater share - the rich isn’t an entity. Many of those current rich folks taking a bigger share used to be a part of “the poor”
This ain’t to say you’re not more likely to wind up rich if you start out rich, that rich people can’t wield power and connections to increase their chance of staying rich, or that there aren’t inherent problems to overly high inequality even with great mobility. But, when it comes to mobility, the US is much better vs. the majority of rest of world.
It’s easy to think the rich just inherit their money and automatically have enough advantage to stay there. But statistically in the US, very little inherited wealth lasts more than 3 generations. With significant inheritance, from generation 1, 60% of wealth is lost by the end of life of generation 2, and 90% by the third generation. 1 makes it, 2 spends it, 3 depletes it.
The average person gets most of their financial knowledge b fore the age of 20, primarily from their parents. So generation 1 is successful and frugal. Generation 2 remembers some years when they weren’t yet rich, but has felt financially secure for most of their life and spends more freely while making less.
Generation 3 sees gen 2 in the spending years of their life, and neither builds good discipline nor inherits enough to spend like their parents did.
Rudyard has some good content but he’s a flaky zoomer kid with no understanding of what real economic hardship is or economics in general. That goofy kid should stick to history and anthropology. That guy’s other fantasy is the incels rising up to fight back against the injustices of society. Hopefully he’ll first work on doing a proper push-up
What if those who own USA government Bonds such as countries as China could influence the ideas of which USA decides to use their military? Since USA is not a mass manufacturer like China but a massive military power could not they lease out their power via their loans and debt in Treasury bonds?
I don't have the ability to do this right now but I would like to write a book about State owned Enterprises in China Vs. State subsidized enterprises in the private sector of America. I have so many ideas which I want to do which I would be able to do myself when I can be empowered to do so then I have to outsource some of the work. Japan is peaceful clean society compared to formerly Sweden. Japan took a loan from the UN and now they have to follow the demographic replacement program for low birthrate countries which they then have to import foreigners who are not making crimes that they did not have much of those types of crimes before.
Pretty good, I like your takes and I agree about the Blackrock conspiracies, it never seemed real.
I don't know much about the other stuff, but it's been my opinion since Trump that the US as a federal reserve currency is pretty much done, so inflation will increase for quite a bit of time as some countries divest. If people decided to let it like that, it does not surprise me. Even Trump has that policy, so if he wins, he'll get what he wants this time.
War is quite possible. I think the nuclear thing is overblown. Major powers can have wars that are conventional if they decide to do so. I won't be total wars, but wars nevertheless. The US/China war seems inevitable and both countries are preparing economically and separating themselves in the supply chain. People want it too, at least in the US. It will be the last attempt of the Empire to keep it's geopolitical position.
As far as the intersectional feminist stuff. I agree it's the advertisers, but it's part of their training. They are trained to divide people in groups and they select those groups. Disney wants young people, children mainly. So they will do things that are good for them, not some grown ups that still wants to stay at that age. So obviously the movies are lower quality and they try to appeal to all the groups they identified. People see that as an attack on them, which sometimes is true, but most of the time not really. It's still annoying they would destroy IPs like this. They should stick with purely children stuff.
*Based*
will you/have you done any videos about demographic decline
I did a Debunking the Doomer about population. I might need to a sequel though. Let. Me know what I’m missing in that one.
@@AFNickHDI is dropping in America. Google reading war, whole language (whole words, sight words...) and functional illiteracy. It was happening for 20-25 years. Basically they were teaching kids how to fake reading not how to read. It's not all population, but substantial amount. You can look at overdose epidemic to see this illiterate people killing their customers because they can't figure out how to conduct their business. Manufacturing productivity gone down. And people complain they can't find workers
Good balanced analysis.
Thanks
I like how Nick has sufficiently debunked many of these points throughout the years of videos.
Most of his points I have discussed years ago in older videos. Hopefully, there weren’t too many references to older videos, but I do not want to waste the viewers time by repeating myself when I have an already done a more elaborate explanation elsewhere.
@8:41 "you can't live in denial"
Don't economists deny that planned obsolescence is going on? Where is the annual data on the depreciation of automobiles purchased by consumers?
What is *Net Domestic Product* ?
Yup they keep looking at numbers when it’s fake.
Planned obsolescence is real issue that most of the financial community is aware of is happening. I don’t think anyone outside of a few corporate PR departments are denying that.
@@AFNick
Which economic textbook describes it?
It takes work just to find Net Domestic Product.
@@psikeyhackr6914 Does it matter? Most knowledge doesn’t come from a textbook. See the history of lawsuits related to planned obsolescence if you need written proof.
@@AFNick
Then what is the point of school and textbooks? Psychological conditioning to be subservient to Authority? Waste students time so teachers can make money?
We should just create a K-12 National Recommend Reading List.
Credit expansion, paired with fiscal dominance, doesn't mean there is healthy economic expansion. Spending does not equal a good economy. That's why gdp is flawed. You gotta take a look at production. And that is definitely going down. Across the board. That's why we have stagflation. And that's why things will just continue to get worse.
Manufacturing output isn’t down. I would agree that white collar worker productivity is down, but that’s a product of three generations of a subpar education system and technology making many jobs too easy to replace.
Stagflation is caused by governments restricting supply of goods, yet printing money to pay their bills. In the 1970’s this was oil/commodities and today this is housing and healthcare.
@@AFNick Manufacturing isn't down short term. But that's just because we're still in the ripples of the bullwhip effect. Currently, we're having a short term up-tick, but the trend has been down. That's because the inflation of the money supply is putting pressure on consumers, so replacement of inventories is slower for things that are in less demand. But inventories still need to be replaced. We're just going to see continuing drop off on what gets ordered, which means that manufacturing will lag again after this bump.
Also, it's not just the cost of a house.
Property taxes lag, so they are still going up and will continue to bite into the consumer.
And insurance costs for cars and housing has also had a huge bump up.
I don't think you're taking into consideration the slowdown because you're seeing the government spending as legitimate gdp, when that's only going to keep prices going up as the money filters through the general economy.
You think it has to be supply of things, but you forget the curve also deals with demand caused by the oversupply of currency being spent inefficiently into the market.
@@geoffgjof Insurance costs are driven by increased healthcare costs, and higher wages which are needed to pay higher housing costs (taxes included).
Manufacturing has cycles, but US manufacturing output (not employment from manufacturing) is still in a long term uptrend.
The government spending is a whole another can of worms I can’t go into on this thread, but you are right is that government cannot create value, it only redistributes the productivity of the private sector.
@@AFNick Insurance costs are driven by much more than that. Losses due to natural disasters and crime rates going up are a large part of it as well because that means they have to recoup losses.
@@AFNick Also, what data are you looking at for Manufacturing. Perhaps we're seeing different data sets.
If Blackrock fails everybody's 401k will be wiped out including WhatifAitHist.
For the Algorithm as usual
25:30 i dont think the prices of houses will drastically decrease once the boomers leave their houses to their children, the children will just rent them out or sell them at market or even higher value. Why would they sell them at a discount?
26:00 housing prices in italy are the same they haven't declined
Where’s the bid going to come from to pay these high prices when the boomers pass? Younger generations are smaller and have lower income/savings.
@@AFNick not from individuals but from the massive investment firms that are buying up most housing right now. They buy them even at a high price because they will recoup through rent.
This is happening right now. Not a "when the boomers die" future scenario.
@@wyattbottorff2473 why would investment firms buy houses if bond yields are higher than cap rates and require a lot less work and maintenance expenses?
The rush for investors buying housing was a product of ZIRP.
@@AFNick private equity, real estate firms, foreign investors looking to park their money and other rent seeking parasites, there's enough money at the top to buy up these houses but not enough for regular americans.
@@AFNickJapan has shrinking population. So prices of houses in Tokyo are still rising as soon as I remember. They abandoned small communities and gathered where there are jobs. So prices may still be high even with shrinking population if jobs are concentrated in one place
how can you make an hour long video to say the fed should not be setting intrest rates/exist ?
Bullshit jobs was a good book though. Good vid!
I know that the people who make the economic statistics are lying. I work for a supply chain company and maybe it is a regional issue, but I have the data for the shipping requirements of several million people every single month we are down year over year. Something is very wrong these last few years. Look at UPS and their delivery data and profitability and package numbers as an example.
The Great Passive Aggression
Spin control was FAAAAAST on this one!
Spin control for who?
@@AFNick for the globalhomo narrative you bought and paid for WEF shill.
Commented for the algorithm.
So everything is hokey dory. Good to know.
Cool video
There're non quantifiable but vital parts of the economy where the whole is more (or less) than the sum of the parts... which is what he seems to be trying to communicate, and you are somewhat ignoring through overt analysis. Complexity theory would be a much more efficient model to use than the inherently reductive quantitative approach of an economist.
But does it really matter if the stock market is up when what seems like over half of Americans can't afford groceries? Like yipee! The wealhty are getting wealthier! Im not someone who hates wealthy people for being wealthy, that is not the issue. But it is an issue that the rick keep getting richer & the poor keep getting poorer. I think that really reflects on issues with our economy, considering that the US is supposed to be the land of opportunity. You can work yourself to the bone & barely be getting by today.
I understand your concerns, but the economy is not a zero sum game.
A little to hard on him imo I think it would have been better if you summarized the points you agree and disagree with giving a less critical vibe I do appreciate the insights at the same time! Just my honest thoughts!!
Summary of this video: "I like using whatever makes the US and capitalism look good and socialism look bad."
Socialism is the trade of sacrificing economic vitality for short/medium term social stability. That’s a whole another can of worms beyond this reaction video.
Dude you're wrong about deaths of despair. It is a Broken window fallacy.
If people were not drinking themselves to death, they would use their money to benefit the economy. Like opening a business, paying for private school etc.
So depression doesn't help the economy. There is no growth or increase in productivity drinking yourself to death.
Whereas if they took their alcohol money and saved it for their kids education open a business, you would get an increase in productivity and real world wealth
There’s a difference between spending twice as much on clothes at the mall, eating an extra appetizer at a restaurant, or binge shopping on Amazon due to being unhappy, versus drinking to death. The data points to mild depression stimulating excess consumption.
@AFNick Again read Thomas Sowell look at the unseen opportunity cost. Those people could have opened a business, took an educational course to improve themselves on Coursea etc.
That creates actual wealth, productivity and growth. If I drink myself to death, buy useless crap on Amazon it enrichs Amazon but doesn't create value in society.
That's the main problem we have today Jack Welchian greed etc. You are making money without creating value in society with buy backs, Wheeling and Dealing etc instead of innovating and making products that grow the economy.
It is textbook broken window fallacy. Firms are depressing people to spend money on things they would not have. I throw a brick thru your window 🪟 to get you to hire the window workman and replace a window you would not have bought. You probably had good uses for that money until you saw a brick in your living room...
22:00 I can understand it being good for the economy short term but what about longterm though.doesn’t it create problems due to bad incentives created by impulsive spending?
It’s the inverse of the paradox of thrift.
Please invest in a better mic.
I believe your desire to uphold the official numbers and statistics as if they are reliable to be a fundamentally religious desire. It seems as if you prefer to believe these numbers to be trustworthy, because if you did not then you fear there would be no standard.
Throughout this video you consistently deride experience, while paying lip service to said experience in the common way leftists do (not saying you're leftist).
It very much seems like you have a personal vested interest in pretending to care about the experience of the average person, while generally preferring to simply accept the managerial class's numbers.
You confidently speak about GDP per capita, the average wages of Americans going up, but quality of life is DOWN compared to our parents. The odds of buying a house for most millennials and gen z is astronomically worse than our parents had it. This is not anecdotal, and is supported by your magical "official numbers". By this metric alone we cannot be honest while talking about the validity of official "data".
See my video I just did on the state of the American consumer if you think I only use official government numbers
The problem with anecdotes is that they don’t scale.
You are heavily out of touch and far removed from the reality of what the working class is going through today. You are either in denial or complicit to the warping of the data/reality.
The economy is not doing great, is a mild version of the 1970. I do feel inflation is not going up but down. Yeah it might be higher than it is but I think by 2025 to 2026, inflation will reach the center of the target.
Algorithm!
I think the best metric to measure an economy is GDP per capita adjusted to purchasing power, GDP per capita PPP.
React to some of uneducated economists popular videos?
Which ones did you have in mind?
@@AFNickTheres one where he talks about the cantillon effect in the video title. Any one of his latest vids. Also He recently did a livestream titled "when the dollar fails stable coins will rise GRESHAMS LAW"
The kid is so on the bull's-eye that it's hard to even articulate.
Not only is it fake it is also gay
I like to use the nominal GDP when measuring the total economy, but per capita I us the Purchasing power parity. Is better then the gdp per capita nominal.
The problem is how accurate is the adjustment factor for PPP. That comparison rate is highly politicized to make economies look stronger or weaker than they actually are depending on the country.
Go to a grocery store.
15:48 *based video* speaking straight facts 📠 here
I am just annoyed and baffled that we still use something as annoying as money to deal with eachother. Becauee we feel like we can't trust eachother with trading and other systems. And yet we still get massively exploited with the real difference being people being quicker to give in to their fantasies of succes. They bevome less demnading about worth because even if the money itself is concrete, well cash not digital money that is just turning money into faith and if you're a sinner the church will excommunicate you from your ability to live without becoming a social menace.
It is always surprising to me how willing people are to fuck themselves over long term because short term they believe they save some time and effort.
I hate finance and human greed. It gets in the fucking way of cooperating and actually getting shit done is what I like to say. But I realise it is not the system that is flawed. It is the humans that make any system flawed.
For all the problems of money, the invention of currency was a better system than convoluted network of IOU's that operated commerce before coins were developed. Read David Graeber's Debt: the First 5000 Years for more details.
@@AFNickthe iou's only became a thing after currency was invented. You know greedy banks instead of just being a vault for safeguarding money. Well if you studied finance you should be aware of it. Paper money were iou's from the bank to give that amount of gold in exchange for the piece of paper. Taking that IOU out of rotarian. Or they should have. What happened was they got greedy they started out not only keeping more of those iou notes in rotation, they actively started "lending" more gold to others as long as they paid back with a bit extra. Untl people started to novice that the amount of Total gold in notes was lower than the amount of gold in the vault. Ending up in a bank rush.
Financial wars are even fought by trying to fuck over the value of a local currency.
And honestly the worth of money is becoming so fucking abstract it is literally getting in my way of functioning as a person. People keep telling me prices keep rising everywhere except in paychecks, and that is just how it is. And they demand that I pay way more for less food that I did only 10 years ago. Trying to play with money is losing all its worth to me and others. Real question is when the civil unrest starts because people keep failing to keep their value exchange systems and those that govern those systems in check.
Like I said humans are the issue of any system. But as a system money is too easily manipulated by outside forces.
And now they are trying to phase out hard cash. Trying to get people to believe the amount of numbers on the screen. Represent actual concrete wealth. Can't even get gold back. Not that even gold has a set value. But at least it is a limited amount and thus more stable in perceiced value. It is as if the whole finance sector is trying to convince people to see money as jesus and worship it. To not look at the faults of the system and absolutely never allow any other ideas to surface. Imagine what would happen with the bankingworld and people that give you money and those that believe they are in charge of all the money and thus the deciding factor of worth of everything in life including the worth of a person and their ability to live. Like apparantly your life is only worth as much as those you would have to depend on to get money. Which in my mind is insane. No amount of money is worth having others decide my worth. And if people would get in my way of surviving simply because of the pricing, their lives become worth to me than eating for example.
Money isn't used for convenience of trading and saving time for everyone. It is used for social control. Trying to convince you that the amount of money you have and your ability to get it is all that decides your personal worth as an individual. Not who you are or what you can do. But how much money you have. And it is disgusting. I mean would you want to consider the idea of having your face bashed in because someone saw the risk of hurting you and getting what they want as more worth it that paying you an outrageous amount for certain items. Worth is too abstract. Money now is even more abstract than back in the day.
Had a nice reply typed out, got deleted it seems. Now who do I blame a censoeship bot. Or you. Good thing I make it a habit of copying and pasting it.
Could you do a video on "The Coming American Boogaloo: Civil War 2"? Also Rudyard Lynch did a video on it as well.
P.S. My understanding on the American Healthcare part was that he is saying "Experts claim the US healthcare system is good but most people feel it does not provide enough value for the cost paid.".
I don’t even think the experts think it’s good.
I’ll look into that video.
Asset bubbles are ongoing and the only thing that props up the economy at this point. All of it is made possible by mountains and mountains and mountains of printed or digital currency.
I don’t think the whole economy is asset bubbles (perhaps Canada’s is), but they do create a structural systematic risk long term.
15:48 *based video* speaking straight facts 📠 here