if the economy is up 12% but cost of living is up 15%, it is not a vibe-cession, it is people not affording to live... -___-" (Inflation just measures the currency, it doesn't cover all day to day expenses)
You touch on wealth disparity when she talks about types of assets. But one main reason for pessimism is the profound wealth disparities emerging in our society which have only been worsened by inflation. It is hard to feel good when real wages are stagnant, costs are going up and you dont own any assets.
THIS It's beyond meaningless to talk about growth and the like when there's no real wage growth, inflation is up and there's no asset accumulation for large segments of the population. It's as good as standing still or going backwards.
WOW! Impressive, articulate, informative, humble, and relatable! What a wonderful role model for young and old! BRAVO! Thanks for giving Kyla a platform to be heard. 👍🏻
This is exactly it. If you haven’t used any of your income to buy a house or grow a 401k then it’s been very rough. If you have a house & stocks then your worth has probably doubled since COVID. Pay has gone up some but not as much as the cost of living.
I would argue it's a recession for anyone not *selling* assets, especially if they're making less than $90K/yr. As Scott has maintained many times, unless you're in retirement, you actually want a down market (i.e., cheap assets).
Anyone who has basically no discretionary income available to spend is going through a recession. The layman doesn’t care about “negative growth” they know they can no longer afford the small things they took for granted
Of course the state of the economy is appalling, And let's not forget how the global economy plays into all of this. Economic instability, inflation, and market fluctuations can further complicate matters and add to people's financial worries.
If the U.S. expects countries to want to use the dollar and the U.S. Treasury we should stop weaponizing the current financial system. This is not in America's interest to do this without due process.
the problem is that most don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high in these challenging conditions
@@Deitricklavernebuy QQQ & SMH. They have been crushing it for me. Also, throw in extra money on dips like when Isreal war first started. Everything dipped & I bought extra. Now the markets don’t care about that war at all.
@@benjamineprg4249the buying opportunity was when the markets dipped due to the Isreal war. Now is just time for boring dollar cost averaging. Nothing is a particularly good deal unless you want to buy some cheap crypto alt coins. Securities are all pretty high.
Kyla is fantastic. Knowledgeable, informed, balanced, data-based, and an excellent communicator. There is just a ton of misinformation and dumbfvckery out there now about the economy and she's doing a great job getting the word out about reality on the economy.
She's very good but not perfect at everything. For example, she praised the chip factories, but from a business standpoint, they are likely to lose money and produce poor product because we don't have the cheap labor, the skilled labor, the labor that can legally work long hours, or the labor that is wiling to stay in one job for a long time so they get better and better at their trade. These are all things you get with low cost Asian laborers.
@@RajDeelish Not really true at all Raj. With the level of automation now required to run a modern fab, it's all skilled...and largely highly-skilled labor that determines success of a fab. Low cost, relatively lower skilled labor plays NO ROLE in an advanced fab. You need highly skilled labor to develop highly capable processes on the equipment in the fab and skilled labor to run and maintain the process and the equipment so that yields and uptime and flawless quality are consistently delivered. And, the most important element in running a profitable fab is to have sufficient sales to load that factory to extremely high utilization levels...very little room for downtime except to perform essential maintenance and periodically deploy bundles of continuous improvement projects. For at least the next 20 years, you're not gonna run a successful fab in Vietnam...or Thailand....or PRC...or Hyperabad or Delhi or Penang. More broadly though, the entire globe is currently short of highly skilled labor of the type required to develop and run a fab...if we build the critical facilities and create the opportunities, the skilled labor...and yes, a heavy proportion of that labor will be H1B immigrants originally from the areas you're advocating but who want to leverage their advanced degrees for a spot in the US...but that labor will find its way to these magnets AND we wean ourselves as a nation off this gargantuan national security risk of fabs being held hostage to the whims of totalitarian regimes. The bigger question potentially impeding success of these investments and again back to that principle that they will need to run at extremely high utilization to have positive economics is (1) will Intel be able to close the process technology gap vs TSMC and (2) will Intel or AMD be able to close the design gap vs Nvidia so these capital investments don't sit idle due to noncompetitive products. Nevertheless , it's a good, strategic move for the nation to have made. And Raj, this is something I know a thing or two about....I spent two decades working in the chip business and saw firsthand the extreme challenges deploying advanced and highly automated manufacturing into low cost geos... it's a lot more daunting than just sketching it up at a high level on a PowerPoint slide.
She has no credibility. Just gives opinion but has no real experience. Vibe session is a terrible term and has nothing behind it. Just a feeling that social media has latched on to and anointed a concept worthy of attention but it doesn't have any real support behind it. Even worse it suggests that economic data can be taken in its face without context.
The stock market is only up because of NVDA, MSFT, etc. It's down otherwise. Also, unemployment is low but the quality of said employment for the bottom 50% has eroded. The disconnect is because the division is only growing. You either own tech stocks or you are getting left behind.
All the biggest companies are up. If you own QQQ which is the top 100 companies you are way up. It takes more than one good company to prop up the whole market.
@@craigmak If you go beyond 100 then it's not looking so hot. Nvidia is responsible for 33% of the S&P 500's gains this year alone. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon together account for another 25%. Only 42% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50 day moving averages. Check out earnings growth outside of the top 10.
exactly. I was just in a retirement area in FL outside Tampa and got an earfull that essentially said that everyone on fixed income just got a 50% pay cut. the good side is that blue collar work is doing great.
I think there's the question that this interview has lacked: How about inequality? To just shrug off the negative sentiments as "people are just negatively biased" hints at what could be a major blindspot in the data.
@@ThatonedudeCR12956 I must have missed it. Could you give me a timestamp? To me it would be the center of the question: "Why are ppl unhappy with the state of the economy, if they are objectively doing better on all macro metrics?" I would want them to discuss if there really could be a blind spot in the data and what could create such a blind spot or if it isn't. I just would wish for something more substantial here. I listened to the key parts again and the main thing they say is "social media creates negative bias, it's performative anxiety" at minute 8 and follwing. At minute 5ish they talk about the "stuck generation", "we need a reallocation of capital and new jobs to come out". Which kind of seems to point at something, but it's just awfully vague and it's only 15 seconds.
How am I only the 699th person to like this? Kyla is brilliant and so refreshing. And Prof G - thanks for the drum you are beating, including the last bit about men reclaiming affection. Soooooo good, and maybe courageous? You’re changing a tide on so many fronts…
I get that the numbers say unemployment is low, but if you actually dig into how those numbers are calculated then you realize that there is actually a disconnect between the numbers and the reality of unemployment. For eg. Just because someone is employed doesn't mean its in thier actual field of studies or expertise, same with part-time employment vs full-time employment, in the stats having 2 part-time jobs is seen as you are super successful vs the reality is the opposite, having 2 part-time jobs is usually worse both financially and family life wise than having 1 full-time job . Not to mention that if you have been searching for job for more than 6 months you get removed from that unemployment stat.
It’s worse than that. They count people with 2 jobs as two people with a job. So if a bunch of people need a second job to survive- boom! Our employment numbers are through the roof!
If you actually look at the fact the jobs they are talking a just being created are the crappy low level jobs the foreigners are taking, the crappy 2nd and 3rd jobs people are being forced to take survive in Biden’s economy…the good full time jobs that people used to have are in decline as well
@@bobthegamer1880 It's great that you have that experience, but I know tons of family friends who can't find jobs despite being qualified, and now work general survival jobs. I am sure its different state to state, I hear opposite in Texas vs NY & CA & SF
Thanks for giving her a chance. I remember first seeing her on a Sep 2021 Simplify Asset Management - "Keeping it Simple with Simplify | Ep.5: The Evolution of Markets and Asset Allocation". I wish her good luck. Thanks.
Very smart and on target young lady. Can we clone her? When I see a young person with this much depth and understanding of not just the economy, but the people in the economy it really gives me hope in the future. And Scott, hey listen to her,thats got to Make your glass half full. Im right there, a boomer that looks out over the horizon and often see’s grey clouds. I think if my generation can move over and let some of these bright positive young people into our space we may have a chance.
The unemployment rate is useless. If 1,000 people lose good, full-time jobs and get shitty part-time jobs, they are all still counted as employed, but they are objectively worse off.
Honestly I think the main factor as to why sentiment among the youth is so bad has less to do with absolute price levels than it has to do with the pressures of having to be remarkable to live a comfortable life. 18% does not surprise me at all. To add to it I also think the youth is realizing that deficits are adding to their misery and really nothing has been done to curb it.
Regarding the vibecession, it's interesting to look at consumer sentiment polling data. People will answer that they believe the economy is in a bad position overall. However if you localize the question to how are you doing or how is your state doing you get very positive responses.
I've been waiting for this episode. I only found her a few months ago and I immediately knew Scott would be complimentary. She's very intelligent and sympathetic to how most people experience the economy.
This is the worst economy for working class people since the days when you could force people to work for free. The social contract is broken. That’s why there is so much pessimism.
I’d say this economy is bad for new entrance to the job market. Fresh grads get paid nothing & benefits are terrible. If you own assets this economy is great. Houses are way up & stocks are way up. My retirement investments have been going up by more than my salary & my house nearly doubled in value. It is imperative to use your income to gain assets instead of impressing people.
You should also invite Ruchir Sharma, his new book (what went wrong with capitalism) is quite interesting and aligns with what you have spoken about recently.
Kyla Scanlon is indeed impressive. She also has the added advantage that she is very pretty. I've seen some of her RUclips videos where it was clear that they were repurposed TikTok or Instagram shorts, where physical appearance is weighted more heavily on those platforms.
I like this kid a lot. night and Day from lyn Alden who was so pleased with herself. she stays away from all the Bitcoin stuff. much more likely to build an audience and be helpful.
Except GDP is lower than inflation which is a long term disaster. Without federal spending we would be in recession. Cant ignore commercial real estate and all time high debt. That doesn’t mean that some indicators are doing well. Stocks are up becausebof AI hype and a handful of companies.
The top line numbers of the economy are good. It's the distribution that worries me. Even if all the markers of financial stability are present in median households, does this giant looming mountain of wealth at the top of the distribution represent uncertainty, disruption and possible financial/political catastrophe?
This disconnect is that it's great for people with houses, stocks, 401lk, health insurance. If you aren't in that group then everything is very hard right now. Food, health care, child care, work load, free time, cost of living, etc.
Inflation across western nations is probably 30% from 2019. This is not well understood but felt because media bangs on about the inflation rate which looks small in number.
Yas! Another rising star in a field that is dominated by boomers. Please come back and share your thoughts on an important subject that young people need to be more aware of! 👍
5:56 - pre2021 monthly grocery bill (5) was $450. now, with 1 kid gone to military & the other HS senior working pt to help, $600+ in groceries for past 18 months & we cut way back on meat products.
I am a retired CFP, Securities Principal and Business owner. I wrote that home ownership is the first building block 35 years ago, and I have been proven right. AT&T stock has lost money over 20 years but my house doubled in value in the last 10, because like picking stocks RE is local. My half acre is worth 5 times more in Palo Alto. Read many books on investing before you write them and you will be less prone to mislead your generation.
I think she is a bit disconnected from reality. For many years, those who dont had the ingenuity of making successful business, had the option to go to college, get a degree and at the end, find a job with good wages, and start from there. Pay the student loan, save money, and eventually, buy a house and build a family. Today, you go to college, take a loan, and when you get out you are slapped in the face with absurd average housing prices or rent, inflation of everyday products, and crazy interest rates. Then how is the average college graduate supposed to break even? From my perspective, economists often talks as if the world runs on business administration mayors and economy mayors. What about the chemists, biologists, engineers of all sorts, arts, professors, school teachers! Most of them don’t get a chance to enter a “company” and get promotions for further compensation. They will a have a “set” salary with yearly adjustments here and there. So tell me how these people breakeven from debt today or in the future? These people want a house, they want family, they want to pay their student loan, they want to get married and travel at least once a year like their parents did. Its sad to tell people they have to stretch every penny and make “calculated” investments and spending when they put 4 or 6 years of their life and youth on hold for a better future and then they are doomed for 10 or 15 years of loan repayment. They get out there and they barely have money to stay afloat.
I wish more ppl were talking about the freight market. It's been awful for the past 2 years. Major carriers have gone out of business. The freight market is a forward indicator of things to come.
It is interesting that some of my friends *feel* like the government is 'lying about the numbers' because they *feel* like things are still bad (aka high inflation). Although I think it is simply that the transition from high inflation to low takes more time than people would like and so they don't look at or realize prices staying more consistent atm.
I think Kyla’s discussion with regards to people thinking the economy is down when in fact it’s not (same with the unemployment rate) is due to ignorance and misinformation. And that’s okay, it’s almost impossible to navigate a world with the sheer volume of information out there an happens to the best of us. That said, when you’re presented with new factual data and you choose not to accept it. That’s willful ignorance, and it’s an epidemic
Scott, if we are to help young people financially, and I know you are committed to the cause, we need to build multifamily houses like the old 2 or 3 family houses, ubiquitous in New England, where the owners live on one floor, and maybe a family member like grandparents live on another floor, and the third floor is rented to non-family tenants. Single family homes built on 1 acre lots are a disgrace and a disaster: financially, socially, environmentally and in other ways. One acre zoning should be abolished nationwide. Once again, wealthy, entrenched people, “ I’ve got mine, FU!“ with their head up their arses who have screwed up housing in this country. Every pre-World War II town across the country offers clues about how to design and build cities and towns where people want to live. Most normal, socially well-adjusted people don’t want to live on suburban cul-de-sacs with 1 acre zoning. We need to build denser housing. New England cities and towns are filled with 2 & 3 family houses built around 1920. We need to build more housing like this and stop spreading soleless suburban housing on 1 acre lots, which destroy the countryside, gobbling up the landscape and which only the richest can afford. Only sociopaths want to live in 1 acre zoned communities. Everyone else wants to live in a place where they can walk to a coffee shop, allow their children to walk to school or ride their bikes to the store around the corner.
@@apine5636 No majority of people on this planet are going to agree with your insane beliefs. The fact that you are basically calling people who want a little bit of land bad people is insane. This is America there is plenty of land to go around. Luckily the vast majority of people agree with my opinion, and not yours, so we don't have to worry about a crazy person like you changing the world. Get some help you need it.
I spend my whole life learning on RUclips while gaming while building a portfolio to profit from commodity related stocks. RUclips ads suck but I deal with them. Everyone has a newsletter but I can figure out what is worth throwing money at on Yahoo finance. How do they turn ME into a product?
She lost me when she said manufacturing and the chips act hope she knows that affects about 1% of the population if that 2 factories in god who knows where the federal minimum wage is still below $8 the median income to survive is $50,000 per person and that’s being conservative and depending on where you live that’s about $20 bucks and hour not many folks make above that so I’m not sure what economy this lady thinks she’s living in and by the way the stock market is not the economy it’s a indicator of how companies are doing and when the top 7 companies are pushing the market that doesn’t tell you much
This girl needs to get her nose out of the economics textbook. 50% of Americans owned stocks, and 60% our homeowners.. But the other 50% are paying higher prices for everything with none of the benefit. Also, the unemployment number is practically worthless today. Where does the quality of the job show up in the unemployment number? Or part-time jobs at chipotle that we are adding good jobs? Of course not. Where does the fact that it takes two incomes to run a household today? Show up in the unemployment number? Half of America is rightfully feeling bad about the economy, and they’re being told not to buy people like her. I’m sure it’s probably political, leading up to the election.
Both people are counted as employed, no shit. But the fact that it takes two incomes to make it today means that our quality of life has gotten worse while the unemployment rate stays the same. I own stocks, and I think people who don’t are stupid and/or ignorant. But like I said in my comment, the people who don’t own stocks and still rent are the ones who the economy is worse for, which is the reason for this little girl’s “vibe-cession”
The economy is not fine for half of America, and she is saying that because the unemployment rate is low and the stock market is high, they are wrong. She is wrong
So they call it vibecession, is it possible its been such an integral part in our everyday lives that consumer sentiment is predicting a precurssor to recession? Somewhat like mothers can be within 4° of their childs temperature through touch has it become a natural aspect of human life? Are we reactive naturally to economic issues?
The lesson here is there is no future in what is termed "the American dream" where you can get a job, work hard, own a house, raise a family and, retire in comfort.
Interesting contributor and looking forward to seeing more of her. But please stop saying "I think like" every sentence. It undermines her great content.
Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times has reported that Trump voting counties (such as ours in Colorado) made up only 29% of the Nation's GDP in the 2020 election. This figure is actually down from the 2016 presidential election when the Trump voting counties represented approximately 32% of the Gross Domestic Product. The political divide in the USA may also be along the lines of economic opportunities for the voters. 🎉
7:50 Is "helicopter parenting" even real or is it just a baby boomer meme? To be hovering over your kids constantly guarding them requires not having a job and plenty of free time. The average parent can't afford to do that and hasn't since at least the 80s. The concept of helicoptering seems like either an elite bubble thing or an antiquated notion.
I agree with Scott, Kyla should be a recurring contributor to the pod. She's both knowledgeable and adds a fresh perspective.
if the economy is up 12% but cost of living is up 15%, it is not a vibe-cession, it is people not affording to live... -___-" (Inflation just measures the currency, it doesn't cover all day to day expenses)
@@choiceschoices5910 You have a source for this 15% number?
Agreed. Kyla is making sense. An important voice.
@@Sujaljaina Don't be that guy
What's "fresh" about it?
You touch on wealth disparity when she talks about types of assets. But one main reason for pessimism is the profound wealth disparities emerging in our society which have only been worsened by inflation. It is hard to feel good when real wages are stagnant, costs are going up and you dont own any assets.
THIS
It's beyond meaningless to talk about growth and the like when there's no real wage growth, inflation is up and there's no asset accumulation for large segments of the population. It's as good as standing still or going backwards.
WOW! Impressive, articulate, informative, humble, and relatable! What a wonderful role model for young and old! BRAVO!
Thanks for giving Kyla a platform to be heard. 👍🏻
Thanks Scott for introducing me to Kyla via this show. I’m now a follower of her content 👍
Wow. Kyla should go far. Very relaxed and relatable and down to earth. Looking forward to hearing more from her in the future. Thanks Scott.
it's a recession for people who don't have any assets, including stocks/houses.
This is exactly it. If you haven’t used any of your income to buy a house or grow a 401k then it’s been very rough. If you have a house & stocks then your worth has probably doubled since COVID. Pay has gone up some but not as much as the cost of living.
I would argue it's a recession for anyone not *selling* assets, especially if they're making less than $90K/yr. As Scott has maintained many times, unless you're in retirement, you actually want a down market (i.e., cheap assets).
@@squirrel7890 yeah, I’ll agree there & agree that when the market goes down it’s a good time to buy but most ppl get scared instead.
Anyone who has basically no discretionary income available to spend is going through a recession. The layman doesn’t care about “negative growth” they know they can no longer afford the small things they took for granted
Precisely, for large segments of the population who have 0 wage growth with rising costs and no assets, it is very much a recession
Of course the state of the economy is appalling, And let's not forget how the global economy plays into all of this. Economic instability, inflation, and market fluctuations can further complicate matters and add to people's financial worries.
If the U.S. expects countries to want to use the dollar and the U.S. Treasury we should stop weaponizing the current financial system. This is not in America's interest to do this without due process.
the problem is that most don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high in these challenging conditions
@@Deitricklavernebuy QQQ & SMH. They have been crushing it for me. Also, throw in extra money on dips like when Isreal war first started. Everything dipped & I bought extra. Now the markets don’t care about that war at all.
@@benjamineprg4249the buying opportunity was when the markets dipped due to the Isreal war. Now is just time for boring dollar cost averaging. Nothing is a particularly good deal unless you want to buy some cheap crypto alt coins. Securities are all pretty high.
Kyla is fantastic. Knowledgeable, informed, balanced, data-based, and an excellent communicator. There is just a ton of misinformation and dumbfvckery out there now about the economy and she's doing a great job getting the word out about reality on the economy.
She's very good but not perfect at everything. For example, she praised the chip factories, but from a business standpoint, they are likely to lose money and produce poor product because we don't have the cheap labor, the skilled labor, the labor that can legally work long hours, or the labor that is wiling to stay in one job for a long time so they get better and better at their trade. These are all things you get with low cost Asian laborers.
@@RajDeelish Not really true at all Raj. With the level of automation now required to run a modern fab, it's all skilled...and largely highly-skilled labor that determines success of a fab. Low cost, relatively lower skilled labor plays NO ROLE in an advanced fab. You need highly skilled labor to develop highly capable processes on the equipment in the fab and skilled labor to run and maintain the process and the equipment so that yields and uptime and flawless quality are consistently delivered. And, the most important element in running a profitable fab is to have sufficient sales to load that factory to extremely high utilization levels...very little room for downtime except to perform essential maintenance and periodically deploy bundles of continuous improvement projects. For at least the next 20 years, you're not gonna run a successful fab in Vietnam...or Thailand....or PRC...or Hyperabad or Delhi or Penang. More broadly though, the entire globe is currently short of highly skilled labor of the type required to develop and run a fab...if we build the critical facilities and create the opportunities, the skilled labor...and yes, a heavy proportion of that labor will be H1B immigrants originally from the areas you're advocating but who want to leverage their advanced degrees for a spot in the US...but that labor will find its way to these magnets AND we wean ourselves as a nation off this gargantuan national security risk of fabs being held hostage to the whims of totalitarian regimes. The bigger question potentially impeding success of these investments and again back to that principle that they will need to run at extremely high utilization to have positive economics is (1) will Intel be able to close the process technology gap vs TSMC and (2) will Intel or AMD be able to close the design gap vs Nvidia so these capital investments don't sit idle due to noncompetitive products. Nevertheless , it's a good, strategic move for the nation to have made. And Raj, this is something I know a thing or two about....I spent two decades working in the chip business and saw firsthand the extreme challenges deploying advanced and highly automated manufacturing into low cost geos... it's a lot more daunting than just sketching it up at a high level on a PowerPoint slide.
She has no credibility. Just gives opinion but has no real experience. Vibe session is a terrible term and has nothing behind it. Just a feeling that social media has latched on to and anointed a concept worthy of attention but it doesn't have any real support behind it. Even worse it suggests that economic data can be taken in its face without context.
Great guest Scott. I teach high school economics and think she is exemplary for them
Great episode! Really enjoyed this conversation- good to have new perspectives and you all were very interesting together
Kyla rocks! Great guest. 🎉
I've only recently discovered Scott Galloway's RUclips channel and I really like it. Very informative and much appreciated on my end.
Please find a way to have Kyla as a routine guest
I didn’t know I needed to see the Billie Eilish of economics.
Outstanding guest. Well done in finding her Prof G Show.
The stock market is only up because of NVDA, MSFT, etc. It's down otherwise. Also, unemployment is low but the quality of said employment for the bottom 50% has eroded. The disconnect is because the division is only growing. You either own tech stocks or you are getting left behind.
All the biggest companies are up. If you own QQQ which is the top 100 companies you are way up. It takes more than one good company to prop up the whole market.
@@craigmak If you go beyond 100 then it's not looking so hot. Nvidia is responsible for 33% of the S&P 500's gains this year alone. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon together account for another 25%. Only 42% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50 day moving averages. Check out earnings growth outside of the top 10.
Where have you been 🤣
@@craigmakexactly
@@bobthegamer1880 The S&P 493 excluding the magnificent 7 is down 3% this year.
The economy is fantastic for the top 10%….
exactly. I was just in a retirement area in FL outside Tampa and got an earfull that essentially said that everyone on fixed income just got a 50% pay cut. the good side is that blue collar work is doing great.
It's for those with assets.
Great for the wealthy and high income. Sucks for everyone else.
I think there's the question that this interview has lacked: How about inequality? To just shrug off the negative sentiments as "people are just negatively biased" hints at what could be a major blindspot in the data.
@@ThatonedudeCR12956 I must have missed it. Could you give me a timestamp?
To me it would be the center of the question: "Why are ppl unhappy with the state of the economy, if they are objectively doing better on all macro metrics?" I would want them to discuss if there really could be a blind spot in the data and what could create such a blind spot or if it isn't. I just would wish for something more substantial here.
I listened to the key parts again and the main thing they say is "social media creates negative bias, it's performative anxiety" at minute 8 and follwing. At minute 5ish they talk about the "stuck generation", "we need a reallocation of capital and new jobs to come out". Which kind of seems to point at something, but it's just awfully vague and it's only 15 seconds.
WOW! Very inspirational! Thank you.
VERY Impressive for sure!
Great work Scott...
SO appreciate this :)
Wow great episode! Definitely would enjoy more Kyla Scanlon
Great guest!! Please have them back
Them?
@@WeBeatMedicare6969 I don't want to assume their pronouns
How am I only the 699th person to like this? Kyla is brilliant and so refreshing. And Prof G - thanks for the drum you are beating, including the last bit about men reclaiming affection. Soooooo good, and maybe courageous? You’re changing a tide on so many fronts…
Refreshing young lady. I will definitely start to follow her. Thanks for Sharing Prof G!
I get that the numbers say unemployment is low, but if you actually dig into how those numbers are calculated then you realize that there is actually a disconnect between the numbers and the reality of unemployment. For eg. Just because someone is employed doesn't mean its in thier actual field of studies or expertise, same with part-time employment vs full-time employment, in the stats having 2 part-time jobs is seen as you are super successful vs the reality is the opposite, having 2 part-time jobs is usually worse both financially and family life wise than having 1 full-time job . Not to mention that if you have been searching for job for more than 6 months you get removed from that unemployment stat.
It’s worse than that. They count people with 2 jobs as two people with a job. So if a bunch of people need a second job to survive- boom! Our employment numbers are through the roof!
@@AlexDAmbrose Exactly!
If you actually look at the fact the jobs they are talking a just being created are the crappy low level jobs the foreigners are taking, the crappy 2nd and 3rd jobs people are being forced to take survive in Biden’s economy…the good full time jobs that people used to have are in decline as well
Dude I have yet to meet someone that can’t find a job seriously we are not living in 2008 Great recession.
@@bobthegamer1880 It's great that you have that experience, but I know tons of family friends who can't find jobs despite being qualified, and now work general survival jobs. I am sure its different state to state, I hear opposite in Texas vs NY & CA & SF
Thumbs up for Kyla! Really good presence & great explainer
Kyla is Amazing, I love that she bringing in a lot of information that the media doesn't even touch. I'd be up for seeing her more!
Kyla is really smart. Yes, bring her back.
Thanks for this great interview. Great discussion. I’ve bought her book and listening to podcasts.
What a great show!!
Btw, its Robert Shiller, not Phillip Shiller 4:00
Great interview! Kyla is a great guest.
Thanks for giving her a chance. I remember first seeing her on a Sep 2021 Simplify Asset Management - "Keeping it Simple with Simplify | Ep.5: The Evolution of Markets and Asset Allocation". I wish her good luck. Thanks.
Kyla has an excellent sense of there market and of social trends. Great guest. And she's right about Twitter and TikTok.
Just became a subscriber. Nice to see mutual respect. Future looks bright.
Kyla is terrific. I think her points about "stress" etc.. are accurate. Now a days, stress and fear sell. They get views and feed a narrative.
I love your podcast and this is a step in the right direction. Kudos for bringing young people with a very fresh perspective
Yes, [lease bring Kyla back. Purchased her book during the podcast.
Great interview, great guest. Keep it going!
Thank you for this podcast!
Love Kyla!
Very impressive young woman! Thanks, Scott. Please make her one of your regular guests!
Very smart and on target young lady. Can we clone her?
When I see a young person with this much depth and understanding of not just the economy, but the people in the economy it really gives me hope in the future.
And Scott, hey listen to her,thats got to Make your glass half full.
Im right there, a boomer that looks out over the horizon and often see’s grey clouds.
I think if my generation can move over and let some of these bright positive young people into our space we may have a chance.
Kyla's impressive for sure. Please have her back!
Love Kyla. Reading her book currently!
The unemployment rate is useless. If 1,000 people lose good, full-time jobs and get shitty part-time jobs, they are all still counted as employed, but they are objectively worse off.
@@ThatonedudeCR12956The unemployment rate does not distinguish between full and part time jobs, what are you talking about?
And the foreigners taking the Taco Bell jobs doesn’t mean we’ve created good jobs
@@ThatonedudeCR12956you think the govt is really delineating the fact that foreigners are taking crappy jobs against good jobs being in decline ?
@@ThatonedudeCR12956No
@@ThatonedudeCR12956I would, but you’re wrong.
I'm Gen X and I learned so much during the Game Stop fiasco. The stock market mechanic is incredible.
The guest I've been waiting for!
You never miss 🔥
She’s awesome
Great new guest
Great guest
Yes! House was best "forced savings" for us!!
Bravo! Well Done!
She was on compound and friends as well. Great guest! Never thought about a mortgage as forced savings and thats pretty much what it is.
We love Kayla! 🖤⚡️
Very smart Kyla. I just subscribed to her RUclips channel. Do it !
Kyla rocks!
Honestly I think the main factor as to why sentiment among the youth is so bad has less to do with absolute price levels than it has to do with the pressures of having to be remarkable to live a comfortable life. 18% does not surprise me at all. To add to it I also think the youth is realizing that deficits are adding to their misery and really nothing has been done to curb it.
Cheap money creates incompetent corporates, reduces competition...US Gov and Fed just couldn't let go of bad companies and banks.
She's the best. Her YT deserves more subscribers. But she has to upgrade her ISPs internet speed and also camera quality
Regarding the vibecession, it's interesting to look at consumer sentiment polling data. People will answer that they believe the economy is in a bad position overall. However if you localize the question to how are you doing or how is your state doing you get very positive responses.
I've been waiting for this episode. I only found her a few months ago and I immediately knew Scott would be complimentary. She's very intelligent and sympathetic to how most people experience the economy.
This is the worst economy for working class people since the days when you could force people to work for free. The social contract is broken. That’s why there is so much pessimism.
Yep. Companies are no longer loyal to their employees, and that has caused the reverse to occur.
I’d say this economy is bad for new entrance to the job market. Fresh grads get paid nothing & benefits are terrible. If you own assets this economy is great. Houses are way up & stocks are way up. My retirement investments have been going up by more than my salary & my house nearly doubled in value. It is imperative to use your income to gain assets instead of impressing people.
@@indianajones3315 Employees are not loyal to employers either so who give a F.
You should also invite Ruchir Sharma, his new book (what went wrong with capitalism) is quite interesting and aligns with what you have spoken about recently.
Kyla Scanlon is indeed impressive. She also has the added advantage that she is very pretty. I've seen some of her RUclips videos where it was clear that they were repurposed TikTok or Instagram shorts, where physical appearance is weighted more heavily on those platforms.
I like this kid a lot. night and Day from lyn Alden who was so pleased with herself. she stays away from all the Bitcoin stuff. much more likely to build an audience and be helpful.
Except GDP is lower than inflation which is a long term disaster. Without federal spending we would be in recession. Cant ignore commercial real estate and all time high debt. That doesn’t mean that some indicators are doing well. Stocks are up becausebof AI hype and a handful of companies.
Smart guest!
I agree, hear from the folks that are getting handed the mess.
The top line numbers of the economy are good. It's the distribution that worries me. Even if all the markers of financial stability are present in median households, does this giant looming mountain of wealth at the top of the distribution represent uncertainty, disruption and possible financial/political catastrophe?
This disconnect is that it's great for people with houses, stocks, 401lk, health insurance. If you aren't in that group then everything is very hard right now. Food, health care, child care, work load, free time, cost of living, etc.
Go Kyla
Inflation across western nations is probably 30% from 2019. This is not well understood but felt because media bangs on about the inflation rate which looks small in number.
For me long form is a better fit. I’m rarely satiated on the short form bits that come from other platforms.
This woman is wife material holy moly. Beautiful, thoughtful, and kind.
Yas! Another rising star in a field that is dominated by boomers. Please come back and share your thoughts on an important subject that young people need to be more aware of! 👍
5:56 - pre2021 monthly grocery bill (5) was $450. now, with 1 kid gone to military & the other HS senior working pt to help, $600+ in groceries for past 18 months & we cut way back on meat products.
I am a retired CFP, Securities Principal and Business owner. I wrote that home ownership is the first building block 35 years ago, and I have been proven right. AT&T stock has lost money over 20 years but my house doubled in value in the last 10, because like picking stocks RE is local. My half acre is worth 5 times more in Palo Alto. Read many books on investing before you write them and you will be less prone to mislead your generation.
Scott _ Kyla and Ed pod would be great for younger people
How can I work with/for Kyla? As a midwestern young professional her insight speaks to me and I want to assist with formulating and echoing her ideas!
I think she is a bit disconnected from reality. For many years, those who dont had the ingenuity of making successful business, had the option to go to college, get a degree and at the end, find a job with good wages, and start from there. Pay the student loan, save money, and eventually, buy a house and build a family. Today, you go to college, take a loan, and when you get out you are slapped in the face with absurd average housing prices or rent, inflation of everyday products, and crazy interest rates. Then how is the average college graduate supposed to break even? From my perspective, economists often talks as if the world runs on business administration mayors and economy mayors. What about the chemists, biologists, engineers of all sorts, arts, professors, school teachers! Most of them don’t get a chance to enter a “company” and get promotions for further compensation. They will a have a “set” salary with yearly adjustments here and there. So tell me how these people breakeven from debt today or in the future? These people want a house, they want family, they want to pay their student loan, they want to get married and travel at least once a year like their parents did. Its sad to tell people they have to stretch every penny and make “calculated” investments and spending when they put 4 or 6 years of their life and youth on hold for a better future and then they are doomed for 10 or 15 years of loan repayment. They get out there and they barely have money to stay afloat.
Holy shit!! What a collab
I wish more ppl were talking about the freight market. It's been awful for the past 2 years. Major carriers have gone out of business. The freight market is a forward indicator of things to come.
It is interesting that some of my friends *feel* like the government is 'lying about the numbers' because they *feel* like things are still bad (aka high inflation). Although I think it is simply that the transition from high inflation to low takes more time than people would like and so they don't look at or realize prices staying more consistent atm.
I think Kyla’s discussion with regards to people thinking the economy is down when in fact it’s not (same with the unemployment rate) is due to ignorance and misinformation. And that’s okay, it’s almost impossible to navigate a world with the sheer volume of information out there an happens to the best of us. That said, when you’re presented with new factual data and you choose not to accept it. That’s willful ignorance, and it’s an epidemic
Scott, if we are to help young people financially, and I know you are committed to the cause, we need to build multifamily houses like the old 2 or 3 family houses, ubiquitous in New England, where the owners live on one floor, and maybe a family member like grandparents live on another floor, and the third floor is rented to non-family tenants.
Single family homes built on 1 acre lots are a disgrace and a disaster: financially, socially, environmentally and in other ways. One acre zoning should be abolished nationwide. Once again, wealthy, entrenched people, “ I’ve got mine, FU!“ with their head up their arses who have screwed up housing in this country.
Every pre-World War II town across the country offers clues about how to design and build cities and towns where people want to live. Most normal, socially well-adjusted people don’t want to live on suburban cul-de-sacs with 1 acre zoning. We need to build denser housing.
New England cities and towns are filled with 2 & 3 family houses built around 1920. We need to build more housing like this and stop spreading soleless suburban housing on 1 acre lots, which destroy the countryside, gobbling up the landscape and which only the richest can afford. Only sociopaths want to live in 1 acre zoned communities. Everyone else wants to live in a place where they can walk to a coffee shop, allow their children to walk to school or ride their bikes to the store around the corner.
@@apine5636 No majority of people on this planet are going to agree with your insane beliefs. The fact that you are basically calling people who want a little bit of land bad people is insane. This is America there is plenty of land to go around. Luckily the vast majority of people agree with my opinion, and not yours, so we don't have to worry about a crazy person like you changing the world. Get some help you need it.
More young people like this!
I spend my whole life learning on RUclips while gaming while building a portfolio to profit from commodity related stocks. RUclips ads suck but I deal with them. Everyone has a newsletter but I can figure out what is worth throwing money at on Yahoo finance. How do they turn ME into a product?
how about eliminating the tax deduction for home interest payments and property taxes.
She lost me when she said manufacturing and the chips act hope she knows that affects about 1% of the population if that 2 factories in god who knows where the federal minimum wage is still below $8 the median income to survive is $50,000 per person and that’s being conservative and depending on where you live that’s about $20 bucks and hour not many folks make above that so I’m not sure what economy this lady thinks she’s living in and by the way the stock market is not the economy it’s a indicator of how companies are doing and when the top 7 companies are pushing the market that doesn’t tell you much
This girl needs to get her nose out of the economics textbook. 50% of Americans owned stocks, and 60% our homeowners.. But the other 50% are paying higher prices for everything with none of the benefit. Also, the unemployment number is practically worthless today. Where does the quality of the job show up in the unemployment number? Or part-time jobs at chipotle that we are adding good jobs? Of course not. Where does the fact that it takes two incomes to run a household today? Show up in the unemployment number? Half of America is rightfully feeling bad about the economy, and they’re being told not to buy people like her. I’m sure it’s probably political, leading up to the election.
Both people are counted as employed, no shit. But the fact that it takes two incomes to make it today means that our quality of life has gotten worse while the unemployment rate stays the same. I own stocks, and I think people who don’t are stupid and/or ignorant. But like I said in my comment, the people who don’t own stocks and still rent are the ones who the economy is worse for, which is the reason for this little girl’s “vibe-cession”
The economy is not fine for half of America, and she is saying that because the unemployment rate is low and the stock market is high, they are wrong. She is wrong
So they call it vibecession, is it possible its been such an integral part in our everyday lives that consumer sentiment is predicting a precurssor to recession? Somewhat like mothers can be within 4° of their childs temperature through touch has it become a natural aspect of human life? Are we reactive naturally to economic issues?
The lesson here is there is no future in what is termed "the American dream" where you can get a job, work hard, own a house, raise a family and, retire in comfort.
Interesting contributor and looking forward to seeing more of her. But please stop saying "I think like" every sentence. It undermines her great content.
Bring her into the Prof G family and hire her! Put her on Markets with you and King Ed.
Neat young person interview.
Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times has reported that Trump voting counties (such as ours in Colorado) made up only 29% of the Nation's GDP in the 2020 election. This figure is actually down from the 2016 presidential election when the Trump voting counties represented approximately 32% of the Gross Domestic Product. The political divide in the USA may also be along the lines of economic opportunities for the voters. 🎉
Hooray for bringing in some young voices.
7:50 Is "helicopter parenting" even real or is it just a baby boomer meme? To be hovering over your kids constantly guarding them requires not having a job and plenty of free time. The average parent can't afford to do that and hasn't since at least the 80s. The concept of helicoptering seems like either an elite bubble thing or an antiquated notion.
Nice term: "performative anxiety"
Young people aren't going to listen to a bunch of old guys in suits talking about investments. This is a wonderful conversation! I'm 79.