How is Bote's walk-off slam not the greatest WPA? Down by 3, 2 outs, 2 strikes? The only thing maybe in his favor was the 2 balls, but how can that outweigh only being down 2 with 2 on or 1 with 1 on? Is the batter-pitcher matchup taken into account? Compare it to the very next clip with Kris Bryant (down by 1, man on first, 1-0 count). In both cases: a home run wins the game, a double or triple depends on the runner on first being able to make it home, and an out of any kind looses it. But in Bote's case, a called strike, swinging strike, or fowl tip ends the game, where any of those would make Bryant's count 1-1, and potentially 2 more chances to hit a bomb. Even if the count is ignored, I still don't see how Bryant's situation was less likely to score 2 runs than Bote's was to score 4. Something just doesn't add up here. (Or should I say multiply, since it is probability?)
www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/win-probability-added It tries to estimate the change in win probability from each plate appearance. For example, if you are down by 2 in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and two men on base, you have about a 10% chance of winning. Hitting a homerun wins the game so your chances are 100%. Your at bat was worth 90% (0.900 WPA).
it depends on how much the play affects the game you're more likely to homer and win with no outs than one would with two outs you're more likely to homer and win with two balls than two strikes
@@fred_fotch_baseball Dude I almost think this video is worth deleting and then reuploading with this explanation, explains your low like count since everyone is confused what you mean by this. Could just also say (90% chance to lose before HR). Leave everything else the same just add a brief intro and perhaps use percent instead of decimal stats. JMO but you did great otherwise!
As a Mariners fan I was enjoying this and then I remembered the Alvarez home run existed lol.
I should have added a viewer discretion advisory
this is the kind of baseball content ive always dreamed of- keep on grinding man- youve got a great formula
Thanks for the support.
Always Ryan madson
that jorge alfaro one hits me so hard when i saw it 😭
anyways, amazing video, good data and all!
Amazing channel. Keep it up and the subs will keep coming
Much appreciated!
THIS IS AMAZING WORK MAN KEEP IT UP !!!!
Thanks a lot!
Thanks again for doing my idea! how about biggest wpa bunts that would be cool.
This channel is awesome keep it up
Thanks man - I'm happy to hear that.
Credit to @waltersbaseballcards for the idea.
Ultimate WPA 0-2 count extra innings 2 outs bases loaded down by 3. Grand Slam
Is there any way you could make another video like this, but exclude walkoffs?
Yes I was thinking about it to add some variety.
Forgot Garrett Stubbs's homerun against Miami.
Giancarlo grand slam against the pirates the night judge hit #60
W ending, ended with my A’s with a walkoff
hope we do better this season 🙏
channels blowing up
How is Bote's walk-off slam not the greatest WPA? Down by 3, 2 outs, 2 strikes? The only thing maybe in his favor was the 2 balls, but how can that outweigh only being down 2 with 2 on or 1 with 1 on? Is the batter-pitcher matchup taken into account?
Compare it to the very next clip with Kris Bryant (down by 1, man on first, 1-0 count). In both cases: a home run wins the game, a double or triple depends on the runner on first being able to make it home, and an out of any kind looses it. But in Bote's case, a called strike, swinging strike, or fowl tip ends the game, where any of those would make Bryant's count 1-1, and potentially 2 more chances to hit a bomb.
Even if the count is ignored, I still don't see how Bryant's situation was less likely to score 2 runs than Bote's was to score 4. Something just doesn't add up here. (Or should I say multiply, since it is probability?)
can someone explain the win probability thing. shouldnt all walk offs have the same probably since it like ends the game
www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/win-probability-added
It tries to estimate the change in win probability from each plate appearance. For example, if you are down by 2 in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and two men on base, you have about a 10% chance of winning. Hitting a homerun wins the game so your chances are 100%. Your at bat was worth 90% (0.900 WPA).
it depends on how much the play affects the game
you're more likely to homer and win with no outs than one would with two outs
you're more likely to homer and win with two balls than two strikes
@@fred_fotch_baseball Dude I almost think this video is worth deleting and then reuploading with this explanation, explains your low like count since everyone is confused what you mean by this. Could just also say (90% chance to lose before HR). Leave everything else the same just add a brief intro and perhaps use percent instead of decimal stats. JMO but you did great otherwise!
Where's Bryson Stott's walk-off home run?
It would have been next - 0.830 (www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI202206050.shtml)
Man where is Renfroe’s walk off grand slam against the dodgers?
It was 0.73: www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN201905050.shtml
They were only down 1 so a 2-run single would have won it.
How is Josh Donaldson's walk-off slam down 3 this past season not on here?
There were 0 outs.