Something's Going to Break, We Don't Know What
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- Опубликовано: 22 ноя 2024
- On this special episode of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Michael Cembalest to discuss: what Trump's win means for stocks and the economy, how Democrats lost big on inflation, the biggest risks to the market in 2025, and much more!
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What's the name of the intro tune?
I feel like I've learned more from this hour than I did in the last 2 months. Incredible conversation.. this should be required listening in all high schools and Econ college classes.
Eh I don't think so
ok , you have to look at that the development plan and the zoning bylaw that fits into the the development plan !!! the plan designates areas that are residential and the zoning designates "lot sizes" set backs etc etc. The "lot size" determines the house size. Developers buy the land , hold the land as inventory, and when they file the development with local gov't , they like large lot sizes so they can build a 3500 sq ft home with cathedral ceilings tripple garages etc, etc , etc . The local govt council like big houses because it attracts "large campaign" contributions and hugher taxes. The is essentially controlled by developers with large land inventories and deep pockets and favourable city/councillors . The low interest rates of 1.5 to 2.5% allowed for so many years ( insanity 15-20yrs ) drove up the size of residential homes because the financing costs were so low. There is no interest at all during this period , or now for building 1200-1500 sq ft homes on 60 ft lots which is a typical starter home. There is a 20 year shortage of simply not building these starter homes. Big oversized homes and land held by developers are still not interested in starter homes . The municipalities / cities have to change these land use laws and cut the time for approvals and build the the infrastructure , roads, rail, water wells , water & hydrant lines , sewer lines , sewage treatment , parks etc etc which are all charged to the land base cost of the lots created why lots cost $40k - $60k before you even build a house. Will take years for starter homes to make a dent.
Sorry to hear that lmao
this show is so good, never stop recording these
another incredible show, y'all are nonstop 🔥
Thank you!
Wait What is happening? WAYT?? But any Compound is better than No Compound!!!👍🏼 Cembalest is awesome!!!!
Michael Cembalest thank you.
He said 300k federal employees, did he mean 3 million or just referencing a very specific subset of federal employees?
Excellent conversation!
Thanks!
“Do you have a IPhone 16? Then don’t.” 😂 Josh is the best.
Wonderful guest....so educational...thank you.
Great episode. One of my favorites. Very knowledgeable guest with great presentation.
Cembalest is always so great on the show!!! Thx!!
Absolute terrific show.
Michael Cembalest is a fantastic guest.
Great Program and a very interesting guest.
Mid-week?! This was great!! Michael Cembalest is definitely at the top of his game!!!
Absolute incredible episode and extremely informative !
Carter appointed Volker. Reagan gets the credit.
We desperately need land value tax over old restrictive zoning laws and property taxes.
Local governments set zoning laws, not presidents.
Where past the point were facts matter you basically say whatever you want even if it's blatantly false and there's no consequences .
Feds dole out money in exchange for all sorts of law/policy changes. (Medicaid expansion, interstate speed limits, etc.) But yeah that's actually ultimately Congress if you want anything meaningful (in theory), but they'd probably eff it up. Probably better luck changing things at the state level.
Yes BUT the federal gov't can help via the Dept. of Housing & Urban Development (HUD). Of course not with that comatose idiot Ben Carson as HUD Sec't AGAIN.
Excellent point.
tRump will close that department @@bonfire1484
Really great insides. Keep this pod going 🎉
How did a top bank executive get a 7500 subsidy for EV purchase? Please explain.
Great podcast
Those who were marginally tuned in don't want to be told how great things are, no matter how true it is. "Eggs cost $3 /dozen and that's not my fault, obviously the extra $5k a year I ***earned*** because of how great I am at my job (that has nothing to do with a tight labor market) can't offset those kind of egg prices--I have to buy 87 dozen a week."
If Canada needs more truck drivers maybe they should treat them better .
1) Democrats have always sucked on messaging but generally have pretty decent policies.
2) Local governments do zoning, federal has next to no role in home building.
3) Might be correct on Elon not caring about losing the $7,500 credit, but I don't see conservatives lining up to buy Teslas. We'll see in the next couple of quarters.
4) I repeat what I said in point 1.
Thanks for this very special episode of The Compound and Friends.
Particularly humanitarian policy …
Conservatives definitely buy teslas
Except for the policies that led to the worst inflation in 40 years
When conservatives (people who have real jobs), start to get paid better for their real work, they should be able to buy more cars.
The problem is, they don't believe in electric cars, but libtards do. And now since libtards hate Musk more than ever, those sales are going take a dip.
@@zwatwashdc we had less inflation than every other developed economy, and a large portion of the inflation we DID have was from the indiscriminate way Trump and McConnell gave money to rich people under covid -- they spent it all on real estate in 2021-22 (and also overcooked the stock market which is why we now have downside risk)
you guys are literally the best
GOAT guest…also Josh the improvements to Siri haven’t rolled out yet.
Great discussion. Thank you
This was a deep dive (for me)! Thanks
What a champ of a guest
We know what will break!! The flow of conversation by Batnick's interruptions!
zoning regulations are local issues - how is the Federal government supposed to override local control?
For state and local governments, Federal funds are like mana from heaven. So the Feds offer additional Federal funding in exchange for furthering Federal policies. Ezpz.
@@doubleclick21I’ll be first in line to applaud the administration if they implement a bunch of YIMBY policies that cascade down to the local level. But I’m not holding my breath.
We’re much more likely to see gifts to RE investors like bonus deprecation in the TCJA
No, literally, children are a grade BEHIND. 22:00 they will not catch up education or economically unless massive tutors and training.
Outstanding insight! Thank you!
The average home square footage has grown substantially. This is also a factor.
All the new build homes in the denver area are significantly smaller with no yard. I think that trend has already stopped. Maybe regional bias
@ True. Overall US home data has show large growth over time. Denver and other heavily populated areas probably show a different trend or could be leading a new trend.
Cembalest is the very best. SO GOOD to have him.
This was fascinating, great episode guys!
Housing prices went up because supply fell due to COVID and interest rates were at all time lows. It takes *years* to build a house.
A detached sfh takes like a year
Appreciate the detailed breakdown! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Great Show!
Josh the new book is fire brother cheers
my man thank you - JB
EXCELLENT podcast today. Michael Cembalest is the best!!!
Great guest! Good info!
Bonus Compound and Friends...love it!
The economic reality for the top 20 percent varies for the bottom 40 percent. Its a tale of two cities
Tired of the political talk. Get back to finance
Tariffs are going to bend ya over
Your guests are awesome! I love that there is very little fluff and neither is there too much complexity that an average joe investor like me will get lost and bored. Well Done!
Great insights as usual, but the anti-Trump bias makes me question some conclusions. The market's performance doesn't always align with our personal political preferences.
I'll say this about the ai issue. I just bought a pair of those meta ray ban smart glasses (primarily for the ability to listen to music while I work). My interactions with the meta ai have been lovely so far. It's actually been helping me with quick measurements (I'm in the construction industry). I think up use cases for these glasses to help me with my work on a pretty regular basis. Once the technology gets refined they'll give me a considerable competitive advantage over carpenters who aren't using them. Those Orion glasses are going to be something else entirely. I can't wait for those things.
Sounds like Gaetz is perfect for the job. 😂
This guy was great
Such a treat to hear from Mr Cembalest again, thanks guys
Compound!!!!! TCAF
Lighting up idle glass fiber is a WHOLE lot different than using idle GPUs. GPU half life is much shorter than installed fiber lines!
two thumbs up 👍👍Great show
FDA regulation is different than EU/Canada/Japan in the sense that it is there to govern that the company has 'processes' that by having 'processes', they are responsible. If an issue arise, FDA would sue it out of existence. Where as the approach in EU/Canada/Japan, you have to 'prove' that it is 'safe' before can be used.
Thx🎉
"Its a supply issue!"
"Okay, what if we gave buyers more money?"
Bruh
Certain people simply can't comprehend economics.
Exceptional content, @TheCompoundNews. Content like that shared in this episode is a contributor to why traditional media is dying….
Hiring in my area of Michigan (south of Detroit) has not been good. I’ve been on the job hunt two months and have had close to zero responses. Started what I thought was gonna be a seasonal job at UPS this week and found out it a on call job cause they dont have the work.
Monster intellect and knowledge base
A really good conversation. One thing that's held up really well has been the USD but I'm not sure with everything going, that's going to still be true in the next 4 years.
Great show. Everything that needed to be said about the DEMS 2024 Blunder !!!
HELL YEAH! Special night with a special guest.
Just Wow!!!!
Where are the timestamps?
With the market volatility and rising inflation, I'm a bit concerned about my stock picks. I recently invested in some stocks that have taken a hit, and with interest rates rising, I'm unsure if I should hold or pull back for now. I'm also watching Bitcoin closely, as it seems to be gaining momentum despite the market uncertainty. Any advice on how to navigate these conditions while still looking for growth?
I agree. Even with great opportunities, we should proceed cautiously. Seeking market analysis or advice from certified market strategists is important.
I thought it was Friday for a second. Lol
How to increase home ownership?
How about eliminating investors being able to depreciate single family homes that are rented. You should continue investors depreciating apartments but not SFRs.
Also, eliminate the deductibility of loan interest on SFRs for investors. You should continue to allow owner occupied homes to have interest deductibility.
More SFRs would become available if the incentives for investors to own them was eliminated.
You gotta lay off the political analysis. Your takes are awful and they have been for the past several months.
Josh - the superocean looking nice!
Agreed, Brietling has some awesome pieces in their lineup.
“Nobody wanted grandpa and grandma to die”… except maybe Andrew Cuomo
Amazing
Pretty obvious that Yellen was a bad choice
Once someone mentions any headline employment numbers without any qualifiers I just shut it off as propaganda
In what context?
@ in the context of the data being manipulated and the methodology being changed over time such that it is a meaningless comparison to anything in the past. So if you tell me that the headline unemployment is x, without then mentioning how it relates to past unemployment numbers than you are just misleading me.
@@PlagelsGarden so what if someone said unemployment is at historically low levels?
@ If your definition of history starts in 1994 I would say wait for the ongoing revisions to take place as the data seems skewed towards over counting jobs.
If your definition of history goes back further than 1994 then you should include some qualifiers about how you are accounting for the changes in definitions, and you should wait for all of the revisions to come in as stated before.
Lastly the nature of gig jobs and disability has changed significantly over time and should be considered depending on what point you are trying to convey by referencing historically low unemployment (assumed to mean u-3)
How very approprate, in with two wars going on, to be sponsored by Rock Money.
Joined late. Harris campaign did discuss, albeit late, the plan to build more housing. Totally agree about the other mistakes.
I love how people continue to talk like hispanics should be single issue voters for immigration. It blows white minds that they care about other things like everyone else lol
👏
Preach brotha
Only Democrat white minds think that way lol
Like not voting for a woman 😂
thank you to all at the compound 📈🇺🇸
So happy to have two Micheals on the show today. This is my favorite podcast I've listened to in awhile
All-in-podcast shared that ~85% of the GDP growth this year is actually federal spending. So you can see how upset everyone is.... basically there's no growth for the rest of the population. This is especially true because tech is so heavily weighted.
or better yet, ask the question who is actually making so much more money
It took me 5 minutes to realize he was talking about the Former United States Secretary of the Treasury.
Um, how does Cembalest quality for the EV rebate? 🤔
People miss the effects of the stimulus triggered by the tax cuts on top of QE and low rates, and then stimulus checks. They don’t connect the dots that the inflation after was a result. It is what it is.
CA has unleashed developers to build housing. 2 br apts for 4795.-5100./month. Yes, a new build, has some amenities and in a tourist town but it's definitely not going to help our support workers, unless subsidized. We'll see how much they go down once supply increases. One year so far and no change. What is a "reasonable" return for landlords and hedge funds in the home market-a basic need? Add constant demand for 1031 exchanges increasing the cost of the housing properties, don't see a way out of this but build, build,build for the supply and demand theory to work. Add a college town to it that increases their campus population, can't get ahead of the affordable housing game. So much for the small town.
One thing to add with the real inflation story is that the PPP did not have to be paid back…
5 trillion dollars air dropped into the system creating massive demand with slow supply coming back online. Perfect storm.
WatWat?!? I thought there was no epi today?! Bird up 🤙
Most of the multi family construction around me is corporate owned with ever increasing rents. Corporate managed housing is not the solution.
Sshhhh. Don't let the cat out of the bag. Trump won't do beans about Wall Street buying up single family homes either.
Top of his game
I only see Nicholas Cage looking at Cembalest. Still love him.
Without a horse in the race … aren’t you an American?
Cry
Probably I didn't believe these are True American horses you are Betting on they Are Self Serving horses
I think Michael's right here, I don't think the messaging as they would frame it would have moved the average vote that much that's just not the framing the majority of the population has around economic issues and the vast majority of the population has legitimately lost purchasing power relative to earnings and wealth gains.
Good job pushing back on the "economy" talking point.
The real problem, is that politics is becoming more and more disconnected from facts. It always has been to some degree, but if you can, for example, get elected by farmers while promising 20-60% tariffs, then things have gone off the rails. There's a disconnect here that's massive.
I get all the cash sloshing around and inflation but, the invasion in Ukraine was the greatest shock to inflation and it is not mentioned in the discussion
Yes it was. They didn't dwell on it, but was mentioned.
Housing. Nice example with 'regulation'. Yet, the explosion of corporate owned family homes and 2d/3/4th/etc homes creating short-term rentals is conveniently ignored. If we barred corporate owned single family homes, put and triple taxes homes for short term rentals the housing 'crisis' would vanish. My neighborhood HOA bars short term rentals, yet ~35% of these houses are empty 6+ months of the year. Housing is a distribution/allocation problem as much as a regulatory problem.
Corrections are already happening at that 15% level. Markets are incredibly far looking.
great commentary, Josh!
Michael is correct that increased zoning regulations are positively correlated with increased home prices. Commenters are correct that state and local governments have more power over zoning laws than the federal government. How many excuses do people need to start caring about local elections??
What the? No cold open?