Poland, After America || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 17 сен 2024
- This next country might surprise some of you, but deglobalization might give Poland its moment of fame. That's if they play their cards right, and even then, it will be a fleeting moment, but a moment in the spotlight nonetheless.
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As a Swede I appreciate a strong Poland.
And vice-versa, min vän!
so tell your government to pay reparations for attacking us back in the day
@@def6420 lol
or give your own funds to me @@TheCJUN
@@def6420 🤦♂️
As a South Korean, I am so proud of my country, supporting Polish people and their effort to defend their country. ❤❤
As you know the new government is more pro-German and may want to cancel these contracts, that's why the previous one was rushing deliveries through. Tusk will be afraid to cancel US contracts but South Korean ones may get cancelled.
Aren't you grateful to Russia for building South Korean space program and making Korea a space nation? or providing markets to Korea so that you could beat Japan in electronics and shipbuilding? or for supplying South Korea with state of the art T-80 tanks for long term testing? What's Poland to you I wonder?
@@elchinpirbabayev5757 Russia is the reason there is North Korea.
@elchinpirbabayev5757 Aren't you grateful, despite our past history during the Korean War and the Cold War, we lent you money and, when you could not pay it back, we let you pay it back with other means such as T80 tanks? South Koreans generally consider Russians as our friends, but that does not mean we will support a friend who goes around murdering women and children. I suggest you guys come back to your senses and end this pointless war. Then we can be friends again. What is Ukraine to you, I wonder? Is Ukraine so important that you will give up everything to have it?
@@elchinpirbabayev5757Szacunku nie da się kupić mój rosyjski towarzyszu😉
As a Polish person: don't worry about the chest-thumping - no one is seriously interested in anything but a defensive war, as there's living memory of what war was like and people would rather not go through the same thing, as the net effect would be a huge economic setback nullifying all the effort of the last 30 years.
Also there's a common understanding that lands acquired this way would be an endless money pit for generations to come, considering the infrastructure there - largely not worth the effort.
Glad someone raised this very point - who the hell wants to be responsible for millions alcoholic, HIV positive Russians with declining education and rampant corruption. Russia is Mordor - best to let them sort their crap out in isolation and make friends with whatever emerges.
I think Peter's position is that more likely Poland would only do this after Russia again stupidly invades. Which would force Poland into a situation where they would want to preemptively make it impossible for Russia to rear up and attack again in the future. Kind of like how the US went on the offensive after being attacked at Pearl harbor. I know he mentions Ukraine breaking Russia and Poland deciding to do that as well but I agree with you that Poland invading is not likely in that scenario.
Military Invasion is definitely predicated on an economic collapse. If things limp along, they'll go the Sweden team up route by offering military support to Lithuania etc with some forward defensive positions.
If Russia keeps thinking that land grabs are going to save its economy, all bets are off.
yeah, a "second run at Moscow" seems extremely unlikely. No one in Poland is interested in going to Russia, much less occupying any of it. Russia needs to understand that no one wants to invade Russia because it is a complete s***hole. Only Tucker Carlson finds it fascinating.
I am guessing the Russians get a vote on how much the next step they will take will affect Poland.
As an American currently living in Poland, America absolutely needs to treat Poland as our most important European ally.
Biased much lol?
@@playea123 perhaps. Biased or experienced? I can leave anytime I want to. I've been to other European countries, and would not say the same.
Or perhaps you're biased?
@@skywalkersindar7463 I was mainly making a joke. I do think the US needs to have much stronger ties with Poland, but let’s not kid ourselves. Germany, and France are much more valuable due to their economic productivity and influence. Poland can be a close third or fourth if it is willing to be Europe’s shield from whatever Russia is planning.
@@playea123 France and Germany have strategic visions that align with America less often than the Poles. And who knows what a Germany that gets serious about rearming will be like in a decade.
@@skywalkersindar7463 you are dumb dude! UK?
Poland is beloved in the US, and the diaspora is huge. Having grown up in the northeast, a good portion of my friends were of Polish descent. Now in Florida, there are a lot of native Poles who have winter homes here (or they come visit their American children here for the season). It's such a friendly and welcoming culture. I'm glad I've gotten to visit in person too.
All Slavs are like that :-) greetings from POLAND
People on the left aren't to fond of Poland. They think Poland is an alt-right country mainly because of their refusal to take in middle-eastern migrants, though Poland says its the reason why their the only major European country that hasn't had any terrorist attacks or a rise in crime.
Poland was the first country. I went to as an American that when I told them I was American. They just hugged me lol
I grew up with Polish jokes. They were much more common than jokes about other ethnicities when I was very young (I’m talking about those jokes that can be repurposed for any ethnicity). How many Poles does it take to screw in a lightbulb? How do you confuse a Pole? (Put him in a round room and tell him there’s a nickel in the corner.) You know, the really corny kids’ jokes. The odd thing was, I didn’t know any Polacks. Or I didn’t know any kids that were Polish in my multi-ethnic middle class neighborhood, as far as I knew.
My little brother’s best friend had the last name Kalin. Mike was half Mexican, but I never made the connection that his dad was Polish. He was just American. Mike was just American. His dad went on to become a Federal Judge (which doesn’t exactly fit the stereotype of the dumb Pollack).
Fast forward a few years. My own dad’s career had advanced, we were upper middle class and we had moved to a slightly more prosperous neighborhood. Still tract houses, but bigger ones with bigger yards. My family knew another family socially a few years later, the Sobieskis. The dad was also in the legal field. They were quite educated and cultured, more than anyone in my family was. (It turned out they were related to minor Polish aristocracy, but I didn’t learn if this until much later.)
But the point is that, like the Kalins, the Sobieskis were Americans. They were the children and grandchildren of immigrants, as I was. Forty or fifty years ago, when I was a kid, no one needed to point out how hard working an ethnic group was, or whether they were family oriented. It was just assumed that was so. Everyone wanted to get ahead, and everyone wanted to prepare their children to get ahead. It was understood that mostly we would get ahead with slow progress.
Oh, one detail I missed. People did sometimes identify as “hyphenates”. Japanese-American, Irish-American, Afroamerican, Mexican-American, Polish-American. I don’t think anyone on my street got angry about people remembering where they came from, although you might hear from elsewhere, “Why can’t you just be Americans?” I guess this line of thought came from people who came from nowhere and wanted everyone to be like them.
That's one of the reasons I think Poland tips to earlier work towards challenging Russia. Although the USA might only act as a 'Vector' there will be strong US support, family ties and Americans more easily championing support for Poland than they would Ukraine or most any others.
Why would they run at Moscow, even if they could. There is nothing there, only poverty and misery.
To reduce the Russian threat, like all of Russia's neighbours, at present Russia are the only advocates of war, if they look to invade you next then do you defend or attack!?!
The Poles would not take a run at Moscow because they don't need to. We know from the middle east the Russian equipment cannot see F35s and can barely see long range cruise missiles. Not surprisingly, Poland, Romania and other nations are acquiring F35s and cruise missiles.
As a Pole I must say that I have never thought about taking a run at Moscow or fighting Russia - Poland as the invader. Why should we do that?
Ah, it ain't the 1600s anymore...
Because the Russians are about the only people in the world with which Poles can safely sit down and have a vodka with. One will not have to worry about having to get home your knocked out companion like in western Europe. Feels kind of like a bit safer to visit them instead of the other way around. (No the ukrainians are not an alternative. They get too quickly rude and aggressive.)
Poland becoming the regional superpower would be the best case scenario for the region. I'm not necessarily talking about wartime leadership but peacetime one as well since the Poles are liked by everyone in Central Europe and they've come a long way since 1989 and deserve a prosperous future.
Most polish are 40 years old, barely any kids
So they got 25 years or so to do something, even then I doubt 60 year olds will be on battlefield so losing soldiers will be painful
Liked by everyone in Central Europe? Belarus and Russia hate them, Ukraine has a complicated relationship and Lithuania has a background of historic resentment.
@@Ghiyath981ruzzia and belaruz are not central europe, neither is Ukraine
@@antonholovan They are, go back to third grade. Belarus is even closer to the Atlantic than to the Urals.
replacement level below 1,4.. no bueno
Hello from Poland Peter!
Love Your work!
You surely made me laugh with this "run for Moscow" :D
In here, nobody really thinks about war. We rather want to finally get on our feet economically and maybe for once (in modern history) be recognized by our neighbours and ourselves as good place to live!
Cheers!
It already is, for many people it is hard to change their prejudice towards Poland. To me Poland is on par with other western countries.
Swede here, working in IT. The colleagues I respect the most are all polish (except my fellow Swedes). I have like 100 colleagues from Krakow.
"Nobody thinks about war". Offensive war, yes. Defensive war? Only certain portion of naive big city dummies and their bubbles try to pretend that it isn't a possibility.
There’s a Polish travel show on our local public tv channel I watch every week. Your nation looks charming and delightful:) 🥰
I’m Polish and I spent the last 16 years abroad and after living everywhere from U.K. to France to Cyprus I’ve came to the conclusion that we are now one of the best places to live, it’s not the same country that I left, but completely changed for the better. I’m proud of those who stayed behind and fixed it, rather than leaving like me.
Big thanks to Poland for all of it's help with Ukraine. Wishing you all the best from the US.
Much respect from Poland! The love of freedom is what makes us friends. 🇺🇲🇵🇱
We thank you guys, and I'm writing this from Rzeszow where 82nd from Bragg is:) Cool dudes
@@ineffige Great to hear that spirits and strength are high amongst you all. God be with you. Strength and Honor ✊🙏
@@tylkolurkuje I totally agree with you, it is a beautiful thing to have. God be with all my brothers and sisters in Poland. Strength and Honor ✊🙏
And even though I walk through the valley of the dark, I will fear no evil 🇵🇱🤜🤛🇺🇲
My parents immigrated from Poland to Canada in 1981, just before martial law/crazy times. A generation later, I'm considering going back as Canada is sure af not what it was when we got here. Sto lat.
Well there are over 25 milion polish people around the world outside Poland. Its fourth or fifth largest diaspora of any nation in the world. And they are coming back to Poland in numbers. Sometimes even in third generation. So come back and welcome home.
you'll be positively surprised.
It's not the country your parents left.
Come home ,even for a vacation. You will be proud to see how far the country has come from the 80s.
You should seriously think about it mate. We still have some issues, and we are not as wealthy as Canada, but the life is nice and easy.
That is the thing, Poland is only 40 mln now, but so many people consider coming back, mostly young people.
You have many Polish followers!! ❤ We are here every time
@@marcv2648 it is a pleasure to meet you, Russian bot XD
where do you live? (if u dont mind)
@@shuckarooo Poznań, Poland
Hi Peter, Polish guy here. I would disagree on the second run on Moscow. We have a long warfare history but, as you pointed out, because of our geography it was mostly about defence, not empire building. Even in our golden age of Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth it was about holding up the Turks (battle of Vienna) or mitigating the danger from the east (the mentioned occupation of Moscow). Because of the constant danger we always live in we are mentally set up for defence, rather than conquer. An unprovoked attack on anybody, even Russia and even if it's on it knees, is hard to imagine. We don't need that mess. That said, we have proven many times to be a dangerous foe when attacked. We're used to it. So the calculation will be different if we are being attacked first. Thanks for all the great work, cheers
Remember: Kaliningrad is also Russia. I think Poland would be able to conquer and hold that area.
@@the_real_glabnurboh, sure. But it's their exclave and not historic part of their mainland. I was referring just to the supposed raid on Moscow.
"We have proven many times to be a dangerous foe when attacked"
...
How long did it take the Germans in WWII? 2 weeks?
How would Poland respond to an attack from Russia? Would it merely seek to defend its borders or might it seek to destroy those military elements involved in the attack?
@@empirelee7676 arround two weeks of hard fighting, and then, the soviets have stabbed us from behind. In this situation, having two agressive superpowers attacking from both directions and a flat geography, the outcome could not have been different. And yet we survived and fought back, to be in a winning camp in the end. And then got Soviets boots for another half a century. Yet here we are again, free. So yes, we're a hard nut to crack. The way you rise determine who you are.
I’m polish doctor and I am very proud of my country. We like to learn new things, develop new technologies, try new ways of treatment or meet new people.Despite many historical difficulties we finally managed to create nice and peaceful place to live…I hope this peace will stay with us longer. No one in here wants to fight with Russians. Take care! All the best for your channel :)
Od kiedy Polska jest innowacyjnym krajem? - Bo statystyki mówią inaczej...
I am one of your Polish viewers, sitting literally in the Suwalki Gap, 60 km from the border with the Kaliningrad exclave. I enjoy your content a lot and introduced lots of my friends to your videos.
@@marcv2648 I hope it was sarcasm.
@@Pawel-rv1ek It was, in the fact that Poland and Europe are willingly distracted with Russia while ignoring the real threats.
@@marcv2648 Well I agree partially, because ruzzia is also a real threat.
Everyone is welcome in Poland.
The thing is, we've got jobs but no social welfare so not every one wants to stay.
And because of that, there're no tensions between locals and visitors.@@marcv2648
Poland was a potent military power 400 years ago.
1605 - Crushed the invading Swedish army at Kircholm.
1610 - Defeats Russia and occupies Moscow for 2 years.
1621 - Successfully defends against an overwhelming Ottoman army at Khotyn.
The problem was, as Peter points out, that it was surrounded by enemies on all sides, and constantly got invaded. But he forgot to mention the Habsburgs. They backstabbed Poland when it was partitioned between Austria, Prussia and Russia in 1772, 1792 and 1795. Considering Poland basically saved Vienna when the Ottomans were about to take it in 1683, this was a great betrayal.
And for the record, Sweden has 10,5 million inhabitants.
You forgot the deluge, the Khmelnitsky rebellion, the Polish Muscovite war and thus the loss of half of Ukraine... The Swedish army was far from being crushed, it was just a one battle and as for the Ottomans, they soon won a battle at Cecora which resulted in another piece of Ukraine going away, at least for a while until Sobieski.
Betrayal, backstabbing, and some symbolic battles or pointless and actually accidental occupation of Moscow... Poles are too romantic and too little pragmatic.
Bez urazy.
The problem of the Poles was the stupidity of their own elites and arrogance towards Lithuanians and Ukrainians. Hope the lesson is learned and Poles don’t try to invent their own globe of Poland.
@@05KAR My intention wasn't too include everyting that happened to Poland during hundreds of years :) I just wanted to bring up some very impressive military victories.
And I'm not Polish, if you think that. I'm Swedish. And I'm glad the Swedish Empire ended, it brought more pain than it was worth. Sweden is blessed with a safer geography than Poland. It's not as easy to invade. And it's crazy to think that Poland and Russia were once allied against Sweden. That worked out great for Russia, not so much for Sweden and Poland.
@@Astillion That's cool, and unexpected :)
Empire or not, Sweden had some impressive achievements, parliament and a kind of a constitution, for the other hand - that deluge in Poland and 30 years war in central Europe were extremely brutal.
If you mean the third great northern war, Poland was just the battlefield and it got destroyed even more. The election of August II of Saxony was already enforced or bribed by Moscow and the whole system was rotting from inside, it was not supposed to work for Poland at all. It wasn't even the geography and military that destroyed Poland - Lithuania.
@@AstillionArguably, I would say the dynastic conflict between Vaasas is what did us Poles in the most.
Sweden and Poland were natural allies. I would say we have gotten the worse part of the family between the two of our countries though. Those are the cracks of elective monarchy I suppose, your ruler will never feel at home.
Plus the nobles were also to blame. They didn't recognize any authority at all. Poland had bad strategic and diplomatic outlook.
There is one thing to note. We’ve had over 2 mil Ukrainian women and children come here. This propped up polish demography quite a bit.
Wow, I need to come hang out in Poland for a little bit 😂
If things start to get south, you might get some Americans, moving to Poland. I’ll step in to help out with demographic.
It propped up other EU members as well.
The problem is Russia has also absorbed up to 3 million Ukranians, far more than the soldiers they've had killed in the war, but PZ never mentions this.
@@crescent4996but how many fled the draft?
Glad to see you cover Poland. I agree Poland has been treated terribly over the years. Glad to see a Polish resurgence.
I had the wonderful experience of working with the Poles during their Airpower build-up. They are True Professionals - I don't see them "chest-beating" under any circumstances. Amazing people.
My experience is almost the opposite. The Poles have many admirable qualities, but modesty is certainly not one of them.
@@goodyeoman4534Can you elaborate as I am Polish and our humour is to self depreciate ourselves and we are said to always complain about Poland even when things are going good. I never noticed that we have big ego, quite the opposite.
@@IhaveBigFeet I spent years working in factories and met some amazing Polish people. But many were rude, aggressive and were constantly snitching on people to the managers.
@@goodyeoman4534 I live in a part of Germany with huge polish diaspora and 99% are amazing people, but year modesty is not typical for them. They are very proud sometimes obnoxiously proud especially after a few beers.
@@timokohler6631 There is no race on earth whose population is 99% amazing. So to say so suggests either naivity or an agenda.
Really nice countryside. Greetings from the Czech Republic.
😄
Czech Republic is a big countryside
Any freedom loving people, should support the Poles in order to support the whole of Western Society!
Peter, I would love to see your "After America" prediction on smaller Central and Eastern European countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Baltics.
I thing that since he talked about Poland today, the central and Easter Europe is coming very soon.
Balkans too!
I really hope there will be a video on each, not just a quick one encompassing all of them.
I really hope he talks about the Baltics, but we were somewhat bizzarely included in the Northern Europe segment.
@@manwiththeredface7821 Maybe Czechia and Hungary are powerful/important enough to be covered individually, but I am not so sure about Slovakia or the Baltic states.
Was waiting for this one!
As an American of Polish descent. I hope things work out for them
Poland needs to stop being nazi first
America will side with Germany and Russia. Poland is always last. Biden even chose Germany over Poland in this war. Poland is lost. Stay in your US and you'll be safe. We Poles may get nuked.
It's always good to hear that from you guys.
You guys have abandoned your old home land.
Unfortunately with a proxy war US-Russia in Ukraine, Poland being colony of US, Poland not having any industry: shipyards coalmines already closed, What is now maybe its like 10% of What we use to have before entering EU. Now they are trying to sloughter Polish farming... So yes future for Poland looks great thanks to West😊 Looks like not many ppl know what is really going on in Poland 😅
Poland now is safest and cleanest country in Europe. Is much, much better than in ‘90s, like completely different country. A love to travel there for vacation with family during summer.
Thanks.
Im living ouside Poland (Wales, England, the Netherlands) last 20 years, but I live sometimes in Poland.
When I travel between countries, and also between cities in these countries, I have to agree with you. I certainly wouldn't have said that 5 or more years ago, but now it's just plain to see. It's definitely cleaner in Poland. Safer too.
Im Polish BTW.
Where u from?
My roommate’s Polish and his culture is strong, intelligent, hospitable, experienced..
Is Poland hospitable to sub-Saharan refugees seeking a better life?
@@goodyeoman4534your comment suggests to me you’re approximately 16-18 years old
@@MFJoneser Your reply implies an inability to think objectively and a person who is easily stirred to emotion.
@@goodyeoman4534that’s fair. But you still sound like a brand new adult! Welcome. Is your home open to your completely irrelevant prognostication? If it isn’t, you might want to go sit in a room alone for a very long time.
@@goodyeoman4534we are not, poles don't like hearing that, we are racist af
Thx Peter, Polish demographics is failing also. No one thinks that "second run on Moscow" or simply defeating russians is possible. Poles are rather afraid of Ukraine lost and putin next step in Baltic or Poland itself.
It's a matter of changing your mentality, that's the whole secret.
Just as we, as Poles, should get rid of the vassal mentality. These are the first steps to believing in your own abilities.
However, it is difficult to do this with foreign media in the country and a political and scientific elite with a vassal mentality.
dokladnie :)
Zeihan is a moron.
@@fraszynskinope. The EU wants us to get annihilated by Russia.
I’m more concerned about this lunatic Zelenskyy who is trying to suck us into not needed conflict with Russia.
Fun fact, in Dec 2004 Russia introduced a new national holiday, the Unity Day.
For some reason, after 5 centuries, they started to celebrate uprising which ended Polish occupation of Moscow.
It was less than four centuries since the Polish occupation of Moscow started in 1610 and ended in 1612.
@@sirrathersplendid4825Some sources say that there were tree commanders of Polish garrison: Pole, Lithuanian and Belarusian.
@@atam3977 - There was no such thing as a Belarusian in the 1600s. I suspect he might be a Ruthenian speaker from the Grand Duchy of Lithuania? What were their names?
To creative the narrative of bad Poland. To Russia Poland can only be submissive or if not it is an enemy.
Ah little European Texas gotta lovem!!
and just like texas its turning liberal
Habitual line crossing?
@@zacharyishikawa2459gotta be! Would you intercept me? I'd intercept me.....
Except their power stays up when it snows! 😂
I’m pretty sure Poland’s got more than steers and queers.
I read this as "Portland, after America" and was like dang things are getting bad. 😂
East/West Oregon split, coming up! or were you referring to Portland, ME ?
As a Polish person, I am so happy to hear this.
Poland is doing well! Very proud of you guys 👍🏻
I don’t even dare to ask Peter to do a video about my country Belgium. I know it won’t be good 🫣
Belgians are also haters of Poles. And your country was also always racist. You need to pay reparations to Congo.
The view is beautiful
The view that Poland is going to go kick some ass?…I like your style
may not be intentional, but nice double entrendre. The view of Polish hegemony in Eastern Europe is indeed beautiful.
Beautiful mountains
Dziękujemy.
As an American I view the Poles as one of our most important European allies and we should stand by them thick or thin.
The Baltic is going to be such an interesting region over the next decades. There’s all kinds of possibilities when you mix Poland, Finland, the little Baltic States, and the Scandinavian Countries together. Just makes the head whirl at all the possibilities! 😵💫
also possible for russia to attack the baltics to " protect " russian speakers , especially if trump gets elected . he wants to pull the us out of nato .
We all like each other and would never want to do an offensive war. Baltic sea region is becoming more and more connected and integrated. The only threat to this region is russia and possibly migrants. If nothing majeure happens this will become on of the most prosperous region in the world (not that it isn't now). Also climate change will not harm this region nearly as much as other parts of the world. Even with the worst case scenario, climate here will be mild and temperate.
@@GOATMENTATOR I agree with the economic potential. I think it could be staggering and eclipse Southern Europe, if it hasn’t already. The possibilities are just fascinating. Especially as cooperation and interconnectedness increase. I think having the shared apprehension of Russian expansionism has been a great catalyst for all those countries.
@@mk1fourwinds62Baltic states and Slovakia, Hungary all depend on Poland. Only Poland cares 100% for their independence and is the only force (apart from US) that is capable to maintain it.
@@ipodman1910 I wouldn’t discount Finlands interest or power in the small Baltic States. A Finish-Polish alliance is a formidable force.
I love Poland really beautiful country. We have lots of Polish here in Ireland, been a big asset to our country. It's definitely a rising power both economically and militarily.
@@basilmagnanimous7011 xD
Well... I'm listening this from Poland, and it is nice to hear that kind of view... but it seems far from reality to me. To say at least! If you live here and are aware of our political class lack of real long term strategy, mistakes, problems that seems more important for people, blind faith in US Army or NATO... Even problems with mentioned military spendings! Yeah - from outside it might look like we are in good spot, but I don't know what would have to happend for mr Peter predictions crystalise as true.
Don't get me wrong - I really hope that Poland manage to go trought this tough times great! But we still remember what happend here during WW2... and I really hope that we wont have to go "at Moscow" or anywhere...
Please remember that it’s citizens who vote the political class into power.
At a minimum vote for politicians who don’t argue about everything and demand prioritising the future of the country over the future of their own career.
I understand it’s easier said than done, but it is a simple matter.
One of the interesting aspects of political history is that you don't necessarily need a good plan to succeed, just just need a better plan than your rivals and circumstances to shift in your direction at the right moment. The Russian and German plans are woefully inadequate, so Poland still has a ton of regional political opportunity.
Hey Polish legend ❤ Seems you maybe haven't taken a wander into many other European countries lately 😂 Poland is really standing out as a nation that is growing and doing well.
@@FoxtrotYouniform Yeah. That is at least one thing that bring hope in those difficult times - maybe just history will push my country in good direction despite obvious problems that are ahead.
@@campfireeverything Well... Maybe my response to this video wasn't as clear as I wanted to. Don't get me wrong. I'm Pole. I live my whole life here and I love my country. Sometimes, watching what is happening with the west I am soo glad that I've been born here. The leap we manage to do since 90' is so great!
But what mr Peter was saing, with his great way of seeing things... well... Let's put it this way - I think he rate Poles higher then Poles themslef. I hope he is right, but for me who know us well, future he described sounds as true as Marvel Universe is true. ;)
I think I want to say, we rather would live in peace than being country where world war started... again.
This was a combination of the obvious and the absurd.
I F***ING LOVE Poland 🇦🇺❤🇵🇱
and the Polish, of course.
I'm Polish and thank you for this, Peter!! Warm regards to all of you!!👋🏻 Poland is located in a very specific place on earth, and indeed the only condition for the fully successful development of our country is the weakness of our historically most aggressive and most expansive neighbours. In other words, this region of the world is simply too small to accommodate two equally ambitious powers such as Poland and Russia. This is why Poland and Russia have been at war with each other for dominance in the region for centuries, and Germany, which historically has most often benefited from cooperation with Russia at the expense of Polish interests, has often liked to get involved too. History is longer than the last 400 years - there were periods in history when Poland was much more powerful than Russia and we won wars against Russia. Given all this, it should come as no surprise that the most favourable scenario for Poland at present, in view of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, is to have the Russian federation break up into a number of weak and conflicted republics. Of course, a very important issue in this situation would be to adequately secure Russia's nuclear arsenal. In my opinion, there are only two scenarios guaranteeing peace in our part of the world: a) bringing about the break-up of the Russian federation; b) Poland and other countries in the region acquiring nuclear weapons.
My father in the Netherlands just sold his house to a young Polish couple. In the past mostly in tulips or agro but now as mechanics
Dutch are bigots to Poles. He must have been swayed by the money. But you Dutch hate Poles.
Met vriendelijke groeten van Polen.
I was working in Hoorn, on Esbacco Bakkerijgrondstoffen for half of the year in 2013. I learned Dutch, however I forgot it after return to Poland. I have only good memories from my short stint in your homeland. Greetings.
Regards from Warsaw, Poland
Hi . Im polish and i always wanted to see moscow .
Best regards from Poland. You have many followers here.
What Americans get wrong about history of Poland is that only few last centuries were bad for Poland. For several centuries before that Poland was the superpower in the region.
What? Why? Even not taking into account nuclear weapons (why didn't you even acknowledge their existence?) who would want to take Moscow? What's so valuable there?
That's the value of this clown's geopolitical analysis. He's a hack.
I live in Poland for 10 years, learned the language to a certain level. Love the culture, the people and the country. I don’t think we can say that alcoholism is not a problem in Poland ;) and the demographics are quite bad here as well. Aging population, emigration, etc
What is there to love about it? Nationalistic, ultrareligious xenophobes. You're must be from one of those exotic nationalities poles find entertaining to hang out with. Otherwise they're cold and bitter people.
I'd like to add that Poland is also influencing heavily the politics in the Baltic states and Ukraine. Both economically and militarily Poland is their closest ally sharing a lot of common history with all of them. So much so that they could potentially recreate the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth which for a time was one of the most powerful kingdoms in Europe. We're talking about an economic region comprising almost 100 million people with much better demographics than the rest of the European Union. This in time will give them more weight than even Germany in EU politics. Especially if they are able to attract other countries like Sweden or Finland in the north or other Eastern European countries in the South.
True
Yea, here in Baltics we see Poland as a great big friend. Although our demographics are bad. Another thing going really well for this region is lack of any african/muslim migrants - that is a great plus compared to western europe. I believe that will create internal trouble in many western european countries
No. Berlin is. Ukraine chose Berlin.
Germans are doing everything possible to prevent it.
Baltics and Slovakia, Hungary - all depend on Poland and Poland is the only country truly interested in their independence and also capable to maintain it…
There is the 3 Seas initiative which brings together the Baltic States with all countries of Eastern Europe.
I think a strong Poland is in Western Europe’s best interest.
Yep. Thats why we gave them all the money and freedom to work in other EU countries.
hahaha..@@tedcrilly46
As a young Polish woman I remember until now the stories told by my grandparents, which barely survived WW2. Their parents barely survived WW1. The last thing WE want is to barely survive another war, thus we would NEVER start one. BUT, if you think we would lean back and allow someone take away what our parents and grandparents build with their sweat and blood and teas…
If the bravery and resilience of the Ukrainians impressed you, wait for the Poles! There is a reason why we all have national defense training at gymnasium for years (including shooting training)
We don't have shooting ranges in schools lmao, głupoty xDD
@@olafjansowidzgówno wiesz matołku. Mój syn strzela regularnie.
@@ipodman1910 strzela chyba z napleta jak bije Niemca do skarpety
@@olafjansowidz nie projektuj jełopie.
@@ipodman1910 widzę, że trafiłem, moje kondolencje.
Moscow was occupied in 1610 for 2 years. Romania & Sweden are natural partners to be aligned to.
Peter cheering for a non-nuclear power to "run all the way to Moscow". Classic Zeihan
The air in Colorado is very thin….
Zeihan does get a few things right, but not this time.
"The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth occupation of Moscow took place between 1610 and 1612 during the Polish intervention in Russia, when the Kremlin was occupied by the Polish garrison with additional Lithuanian units under the command of hetman Stanisław Żółkiewski and assisted by Russian boyars led by Mikhail Saltykov. The occupation coincided with Russia's Time of Troubles."
I am Polish, living in Poland.
In my opinion, we feel the need to create a strong army, but only because of the external threat (this is our historical experience). I am convinced that Poles would not accept their own attack on any of their neighbors. However, if someone attacked us, we would defend ourselves "to the last drop of blood."
We don't really have any superpower ambitions. We want to be at peace in our current home.
It is true that we ourselves like to complain about Poland, but we will not allow a stranger to complain about it.
We want to be strong, not to dominate others, but to prevent anyone from dominating us.
Way to go Poland !
Good thing to mention is that it is estimated that around 20 milions Poles or people of polish decent are living around the world, in Poland named "Polonia" and recently we have seen an increase in Polonia moving back to Poland, mainly because of the economic improvement Poland has experienced over last 30 years. Polish government is constantly introducing program packages for those people to make moving back to homeland easier. If this phenomenon will be used correctly Poland has a potential to cope with demographic collapse I probably the best way possible. By supplying their economy with Polish speaking force, usually we'll educated as well.
Perun has a video essay about Polands MID for anyone that wants a deeper dive into some of the topics Peter touched on.
Link?
@@mattp8661 ruclips.net/video/sSPhOWDkcPk/видео.html and ruclips.net/video/yrbaAKZfjwg/видео.html
@@mattp8661 ruclips.net/video/yrbaAKZfjwg/видео.htmlsi=O82esvFBAZFGlx86
@@mattp8661He have done 2 videos on Poland.
First one: ruclips.net/video/sSPhOWDkcPk/видео.htmlsi=WcF2NYKkCHy55iSC
@@mattp8661second one:
ruclips.net/video/yrbaAKZfjwg/видео.htmlsi=Vj_zYKFaq1rIPdXD
Czy przybył już poseł z Lechistanu? - Love Poland from Turkey. I think European countries, especially the ones are in the west will start to see Poland as a "border defender" against the Russians. Poland has the population, their patriotism, and the balls to defend their country which is also the gates of Europe. The question is if Poland wants to defend their "so called Allies" because they are not EUs mercenaries. I think Poland should continue to focus on their own strategic benefits. While they have to defend against the Russians, they should be aware of the politic games of the west while seeking allies on the south and north. Also Polish people may think they don't want to march to moskow now but if Russia starts a war with them they will take the opportunity to stop them from future invasions by marching to moskow. Nice video.
The Turks never cease to amaze me, the very fact that after the victory at Vienna, King Jan Sobieski was respected in Turkey, called "Lion of Lechistan" and considered a great leader shows that your nation has a lot of class👍
@@adriannaszudrzynska9371 Thanks, we also are amazed by The Lechs. Even though we were allied with Germany in WW1, we never liked them. But Poland and Hungary were different. We respected them. The West always used Hungary as their defender against the Ottoman Empire. We are coming from the same origin as them. They are like our cousins. But Politics, right? Now they know what's in their best. Today we have close relationships with them. I hope the same happens for Poland. I remember a Polish saying "Poland can not be able to gain her independence in the real sense unless Turkish horses drink water from the Vistula River." In the tough times we took refugees from Poland and they found a Polish Village here in Istanbul called Polonezköy or Adampol. I visited them a couple of years ago. I know there are Tatar Turks in Poland. We also sell drones and other military equipment to Poland. These are nice starting points for a better diplomatic relationship. We fought in history, we won, we lost, and we might fight again in the future, but that will not change our respect for the honorable people of Poland.
A Master Class on modern Poland.
We don't want any war! We are arming ourselves to defend ourselves! Poland wants to grow and expand economically and culturally, but it doesn't want war!
We don't want either to reclaim former territories or to conquer new ones. We want peace and stability. We want to develop ourself and provide security for our eastern, free, independent state partners. We respect the right to self-determination of nations and do not seek ways to dominate the region. We seek calm and offer calm. Nothing more!
Absolutely 100% it is a sentiment of most Polish people. And if anybody wants war - go to Mars and play there. Why is it always have to be on our land. We live here do cholery.
@@lechini4827idiotyczne myślenie przez stulecia tereny lwów Brześć Grodno itd były nasze a teraz słabi polacy mają w to wyjebane
Thanks for the knowledge and the view. Its been years since I hiked from Silverthorne to Vail that route. One of my favorites.
One thing you can't see in Polish demographics statistics are Ukrainian migrants and refugees which boost Polish demography, so the collapse won't be in 20-50 years. More like 40-70.
If there is even a collapse at that point. Once Russia is no longer a threat and everybody is prospering, people would start having bigger families.
@@Steve-O_27 not really, we have no viable treat in Japan or China and their demography looks terrible.
The ukranian refugees dont magically compensate a replacement level of 1,4 (for the native poles). That small of a minority would have something of a replacement level of 4,5 to extend that window that much (more than doubling it) which they didnt even have back in Ukraine
@@Keckegenkai xD this completely different story. They "magically" replaced about 2.5 m people which migrated to Western Europe. Also when you look closer to their structure those are mostly women and children which means that you extend this window of opportunity that Peter mentions in his video.
And for the record Ukrainians in Ukraine has worse birth rates than Poles. But when you look at Poles in the UK or Ireland you will notice that they are elite in terms of fertility rate.
they'll all go back to ukraine the day war ends
As a Pole I just have to say, that Poland does not have any plans to invade anyone. We just don't want to be in position that Ukraine is in so there are plans to have stronger military. At the same time no one is even thinking about invading anyone not to mention having any plans like that.
Come on Zeihan; a run at moscow? Russia is a fully armed nuclear power. Thats one hell of a gamble for a would be invader...
I can see Ukraine and Poland joining forces as allies. Ukraine's suffering demographic decline, but the young people they do have have shown themselves incredibly inventive under pressure, and that level of creativity is unusual among those countries struggling to recover from the Warsaw Pact. They are currently enjoying good relations with Poland, with a sizeable chunk of their citizens sheltering there. The grain issue wasn't a dealbreaker, and is being sorted out with Ukraine regaining the ability to trade with her African market. If Poland agrees that they don't want to run Ukraine, merely work with Ukraine, together they will make sure that Russia stays in her box.
Poland should ally with Sweden, Romania and Turkey. And take Ukraine into consideration also, then it would be quite a force on the Eastern flank.
Turkey, like Russia, a totalitarian Asian wretched place
They have, it's called NATO and the EU.
@@Red.Hot.Chili.Beans63yeah, and it sucks!
@@Red.Hot.Chili.Beans63 Well, the topic of the video is "After America". I know Poland is in very close ties with the UK, but unfortunately it didn't work out very well on so many times, and that's because, in a military conflict, I suppose it would be extremely hard for the UK to get to Poland, especially by land, and they might be tied down anyway.
But a construction like Poland + Sweden + Romania + Turkey and Ukraine would definitely be a mighty force, probably economically as well.
Rather than going for Moscow, I would expect Poland to go for Kaliningrad after Russian military is laid waste by the Ukraine war. This would significantly enhance its ability to defend itself against Russian aggression and improve their position in the Baltic and with Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania which are even more vulnerable to Russian expansionism and improve Nato's ability to defend the whole Baltic region, not to mention weaken Russia's ability to trade
Interesting analysis, but you forgot one most important factor: Polish personality. For hundreds of years, Poland fought only defensive wars. Didn't attack, just defended herself. Moscow was captured only once, only to remove the immediate threat from borders. This happened not because of a lack of military capabilities or forces, but because of Poland's reluctance to start wars.
Sadly, you historical perspective on Poland is lacking in depth and insight. Sweden has not been a major threat to Poland over the vast majority of its history, except in XVII century, when Poland was involved in a domestic war in Ukraine that led to Polish-Russian war, while also fighting forces from Prussia and Transylvania. No single country has ever been able to "gobble up" Poland "very easily" or otherwise in its entire history! It was always a war with multiple adversaries taking place simultaneously or consecutively that brought Poland's demise.
The closest Poland was ever to be defeated by a single adversary was in WWII, although it was already nearly surrounded at the outset by Western Germany, German East Prussia and Slovakia aiding the Nazis in the South. Even then, the final blow came from the lack of significant support on the part of Poland's so-called Allies (UK, France) and Russia's invasion of Poland from the East.
I don’t really understand the whole line of reasoning about taking over Moscow. Isn’t the entire point of defending Ukraine about respecting borders and doesn’t Moscow have nuclear weapons. I suppose if Russia totally collapses, parts of it could go to the neighbors. I’m sure the Finns would want a piece, but I find the prospect of anything but defense to be very unlikely
He just wants to divide and rule. Typical american propaganda.
Why would poland be interested in further conflict?
Let russia deal with it's internal problems. No need to concentrate too much on them when your future looks much more prosperous.
Zeihan is delirious. You can see he talks nonsense.
read it: Alan Dean Foster "Polonaise"
My god what a beautiful vista, thanks for your videos I find them SO interesting!
Great explanation of Polish history and Slavic Heart ❤️
Absolutely spot on dude! First time on your channel! Really appreciate your location and geopolitics agenda opinion! I'm living in Germany for nearly 10years. Luved 13 years in asian countries. One Love ❤️💛💚 from North Germany
Poland will not look a Moscow, it is not possible without support of Europe or USA. Kaliningrad from the other hand is just a 4 hour drive from Warsaw...
About the run on Moscow thing. One small detail: Rus has nukes.
Plus, when Poland did that it had an Empire as big as the Russian one and the best cavalry in Europe with over a hundred years of fighting experience, the winged hussars. Populations were probably similar as well
Right! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills! Since when can a country with nuclear weapons get successfully invaded?
Of course! It’s a pipe dream and… nobody in Poland dreams it. It’s pointless.
Add in the sheer number of air defense and missile systems Poland had bought. they have been called a "Little European Texas" for a good reason.
Going on holidays to Poland, really looking forward to - people, ancient history, handcraft, art, CDProjectRed merch, football shirts😉 Greetings from 🇨🇭
“I judged the Poles by their enemies. And I found it was an almost unfailing- truth that their enemies were the enemies of magnanimity and manhood. If a man loved slavery, if he loved usury, if he loved terrorism and all the trampled mire of materialistic politics, I have always found that he added to these affections the passion of a hatred of Poland. She could be judged in the light of that hatred; and the judgment has proved to be right.” - G. K. Chesterton
Good morning Peter!
Think Poland would likely partner with the Baltic states, in a sort of Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth or something.
You could probably add in Belarus, and perhaps Western Ukraine. It would be a DEFENSIVE union, just like the original Polish-Lithuanian Union of 1569.
Remember it was the Poles who broke Soviet codes that created the miracle on the Vistula. They also did some of the first work on Enigma.
Ppl think we had independence in 1945 (after ww2). But in reality from 1989. We built almost a regional superpower in 35 years.
Thank you for mentioning our country difficult history. We struggle with political class, but the young educated people (currently in their 40s) are slowly taking over the steers. We will be good. We are hard working, determined and creative in finding the solutions. We have greatvengineers and independent creators who are educating the masses about what's important. Lets hope we do not implode from internal petty conflicts ignited by foreign capital control media or lowering the bar in educational system. Let's keep pushing and stay together and we will prosper.
One of the best views yet. This might be my favourite 😊
Peter: Poles will push more and more aggressively
Poles, when Russian missile flew into Polish airspace: maybe if i ignore it it will go away
Do you understand what risk it is to shot the rocket?
Do you also understand that the act of shooting the rocket exposes information to be collected by the Russians?
This is very complexed situation.
Peter ALWAYS has an interesting and thoughtful analysis. Thanks!!
I'm a firm believer Poland's ambitions for creating Intermarium. I don't think eastern European countries should rely on the westerners Europeans for their defense. Only those that were under Russian's thumb know how shitty it was to have a aggressive Russia with bold ambitions. We've seen with Ukraine how the west will drag their feet in order to both appease Russia for fear of nuclear retaliation. Also why would they care when they have all of eastern europe as a buffer for the russian army. They can simply take their time. With Poland arming themselves to the teeth and with a seemingly defensive posture, they feel like the best candidate to lead such a coalition. I think Finland would also be a great senior partner, as a means to stretching Russias frontlines. Both nations would benefit from a russian defeat as they could reclaim some historic territories.
As a Pole, I have not heart anything more hilarious than that!
Poland is the best ally in Eastern Europe.
Central
Beautiful scenery in this video!
This is the by far the craziest shit I have ever heard from Peter. 😂😂😂
As a Polish - we are not interested in Moscow. We have our land and we only want it to stay that way.
Nie można zwyciężyć w inny sposób Rosji, oni się poddają dopiero wtedy, kiedy zostaje podbita Moskwa, Zeihan przecież mówi o tym wyraźnie w filmiku.
Almost noone(certainly not even single politician) in Poland thinks about any autonomic "moved" against Russia, everyone seems to think USA will defend us forever. I wish what you were saying were true.
Wow, kind of crazy, I think I posted a comment within the last few days asking you to cover Poland in your post America series, and here it is. I'm sure me asking had nothing to do with it, you probably didn't even see the comment, but I feel special.
I know, prior to the Poland joining the EU there was some talk amongst Slavic countries, outside of Russia really, about creating their own alliance (not dissimilar to a combination of the EU and Nato). Do you think anything like that could still be on the table, especially with the weakening of both Russia and the EU? That could be a bit of a game changer.
I could certainly see a split in the EU. consider why Czechoslovakia split into Czech Republic and Slovakia, Thought it a bit funny but have no real sense of that.
@@landontesar3070 It's about two-speed Europe. More like way to negotiate inside UE than anything else.
Poland is a member of Three Seas Initiative which was influenced by the Polish interwar Intermarium concept, was launched in 2015 by Polish and Croatian President there are 13 members: (Poland, Croatia, Austria, Bulgaria, Check Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia)
@@tomekville7 And it's funcionally dead since 2021. In 2023 they had 6 posts on their official website.
Poland ambitions are significantly more limited than what Peter thinks. It's mostly Stabilization of the neighborhood, and influencing Belarus to stop hostile policy. Taking Muscovy... Would be risky and expensive. Deterring Russia and letting them destroy themselves, seems like much better option.
6:05 "a second run at Moscow"...What about those 6,600 nukes? Are they just going to stand by and watch Poland taking over Moscow?
You assume that the nukes are kept up well. Sure, Russia may only need 66 nukes…or maybe even 7 nukes…but even in the most oil-endowed of times those weapons need constant, expensive upkeep. Upkeep that may presently be too much for what remains of the Russian war machine.
Are you sure, that Ukraine or Poland doesnt have any? They had it on their territory. Do you know how easy it was to bribe a USSR soldiers in 1991?
Can anyone remind Peter that we literaly gave up 70% of our fire power (300 post-soviet tanks) to Ukraine at the beginning of the war? Americans and Germans are not able to fulfill that gap, only Koreans agreed to give their stocks, produce them in huge numbers on time and even license it on-site to produce in Poland.
Lithuanian here and I'm so happy we have Poland near, and I hope they will become superpower soon. It like big brother who can protect us from idiot neighbour down the street
Not so long ago our marshal was in Lithuania and stated that our countries are like siblings. They smiled and laughed at each other. Wholesome meeting ^^.
ruclips.net/video/uXUbzD192mU/видео.html
King Johan III king of Sweden was aiming to create a union between Sweden and Poland. He managed to get his son Sigismund elected as king of Poland. As Sigismund was the heir of Sweden the union should have been a fact.
Unfortunately king Johans brother exploited the religious divide to make himself king of Sweden. Decades of war followed. Maybe Johan III wasn’t that stupid after all.
If Poland would just elect princess Victoria as their president…
thanx Peter for Poland episode 🙂