And his pessimism for others hopefully, and most likely, better than he foresees. Many of the people are still much closer to subsistance levels, either currently or in the recent past, and would have those survival skills readily to hand.
I think I know why he's saying this stuff. Notice how he's visiting every place one would have on their bucket list? Notice how everything is doom and gloom? I think he has a terminal illness and wants to say what he can before its too late.
Sometimes I wonder if it just depends on how he's feeling day to day. Picks out anecdotes about raw materials while ignoring/knowing nothing about ethereal factors.
I enjoy your regular apocalypse series explaining how every country in the world will collapse within a decade. It takes the pressure off getting out of bed in the morning.
Every country? Thats not true. And you have to define, what is a collapse. It may be a good collapse or a bad collapse. It may be a collapse of Armenia, if they cease to exist, but for the regular Armenian Joe everything may stay the same. There is a very popular old joke about a guy who lived 80 years and survived collapses of seven different countries he lived in. Basically he changed country 7x during his lifetime and never even set foot out of Mukachevo.
Lots of places have “collapsed” and it’s easy to think that is the end of things, but life keeps going, and you have to make your way. Get out of bed in the morning and live life! Go on a hike and read a book and don’t spend too much time on social media, and find someone cute and make love. Peace and light.
As a Moroccan, yes we've got wheat issues but we are also exporting billions of produce to Europe, last time they ban exports some UK retailers had empty vegetables shelves. We aren't going to starve if we can't import wheat on the international market but we are likely to have worse water shortages if it doesn't rain this year after like 4 years of droughts. Even we have double the dam capacity per capital than either algeria or tunisia, those dams can't generate water without rain. Lack of energy security is the main issue here, we don't have any oil and gas and can't even import cheap energy from the neighbor algeria due to the western sahara issue, the threat of war is always present. Tough renewables could be a solution and exporting it to the UK with the xlinks project might be really helpful.
@@Snowmaners people been claiming there will be famine because of over population for centuries and here we are, it is just plain Malthusianism, people will find away and if things don't happen abruptly the population will slowly diminish to the available resources. Plus a lot of agriculture is unnecessary for food security, it is either to feed livestock or industry ( see ethanol ) famine happens due to logistical issues due to war for example, not a lack of food.
Renewables will not be a solution for Morocco. Your only assets are, as far as I'm aware, phosphate and you buy arms from the USA. The phosphate is essential, which is good, but whoever controls the mines will export it, which less good. Algeria will probably either get invaded by France or arms from France, my bet would be invasion. I suspect that Morocco will be ok as it should survive because of phosphate, but it's not worth invading. Your biggest threat is likely that you might not be able to feed yourself, but wars are a solution for population control and if France needs North African colonies again then a war between Algeria and Morocco would reduce Algerian capabilities. I suspect that the world is returning to more Machiavellian state politics.
@@ivancho5854 france would not touch algeria, they've got like 10% of the population who are algerians good luck dealing with that war between algeria and morocco would be mainly about western sahara and a continuation of the sand war in the 60s but it is mainly pointless and both countries don't have the capability to actually invade and reach the other party capital either way and the land is mostly a barren desert and any natural resources in there is not worth the trouble or even the cost of the war. renewable are a good source of income if you could reach northern or europe, desertec was a good project but the german decided to waste resources on solar panels up north and closing their nuclear power plants and be at the mercy of their russian overlords, look at what it lead them. Noor station was at some point the biggest in the world it was a show case for the project. There is high solar radiation in the region but also high wind all year long in some places too, we just lack the capital to build everything.
@@captainalex157 Help from Netherlands. They are the experts in that matter. And there are plants that grow well on salty land like Tulipes ^^ And you can even eat them.
The final claim that 110 million + Egyptians are going to "more or less die in silence" is beyond ludicrous. Firstly, transportation options have expanded somewhat since Biblical times. Secondly, there's the Suez Canal. Egypt matters and any failure of its ability to "function as a state" (a favorite Zeihan-ism) will have massive implications for the whole Middle East/Mediterranean region and wider world.
if the egyptian government cllapses, other powers are simply gonna take over the suez canal. possible a UN mission, so no one gets upset. Maybe Israel will annex it? would give it massive leverage.
well he is right egypy's population is too big to keep up given the nile's water supply is nt increasing anyday , so the famine que is a real one , but you know him he is the CEO of extreme predictions .
Peter makes extreme predictions based on assumption placed on top of other assumptions. That results in his end product being really shaky. USA, Russia, Germany and China are not going anywhere. Global trade is not going anywhere. And 110 million Egyptians are definitely not going to starve in silence.
The prediction is that Egypt will not have control over this anymore because of Turkey and Israel, they will essentially exist as the Turks want them to
I highly appreciate that you started by differentiating between Northern Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. We’re immensely different from each other. The fact that both of us exist on the second largest continent in the world is confusing to uninformed ppl!☮️❤️
It isn’t really true that the North African countries don’t have a maritime tradition. It just isn’t a mercantile one. We’ve all heard of the Barbary pirates, who preyed on shipping and raided Europe for slaves for centuries, and they were Berbers from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Even the US Marine Corps’ hymn, as I expect you know talks about the shores of Tripoli, as the young USA’s first foreign expedition was to quell them. North Africa’s maritime tradition is one of lawless attack and that’s worth bearing in mind when considering the future of the region.
Dude, do you ever stop? Last 5-7 videos and more of yours, you are constantly on the move. Climbing, hiking, sailing! Well, enjoy and keep up the good work!
PZ could be about to be beheaded, getting a manicure, in a rocket on his way to Mars, buried to his head in the sand with amazon fire ants about to make a meal of him and he would still get in a word.....GO Peter....! So.....Like, Where in The World is Carmen Sandiego......? So here we have....Where in the World is Peter Zeihan......?
the "after America" series was prerecorded and some of his others videos are as well, recorded in just one take and uploaded at different days, he said this himself, he's still always on the move but not as crazy as it seems
Hey Peter! ✨ I follow your work to great delight and would love if us Danes could get your strategic visions! You’ve recently mentioned Sweden in connection with the Nato Alliance, Norway in connection to natural ressources and quickly the whole of Scandinavia - But I’d really appreciate you looking at Denmark - We have the biggest Shipping compant (Mærsk), Medicinal company (Novo Nordisk) and WindMill manufacturer (Vestas) as well as fun cultures such as Højskoler. But yeah, I think your for how our future might look would be immensely valuable! I hope you get to read this comment! All the best, Sebastian from Denmark
As an 2nd generation Danish American, I’d be interested in this as well. With limited knowledge of the situation, my top concern for Denmark is what the impact of a decline Germany. As strong as Germany has been, they are heading towards a very difficult time that will last decades. Would you happen to know the state of the Danish demographics?
I think he will get around to it, but in his books, Peter has said that Denmark and the Netherlands are two European countries that the US will still care about, since they are like gates into Europe, along with the UK.
@@abouranous hahahahaha exactly i am tunisian and i was laughing when he said Algeria and Algerian are pro usa ahahhahaha bro Algeria is pro pro Russia (and Algeria has been a pro Soviet Union ally for years) 🤦🤦🤦
There was no discussion about Egypt’s oil and gas production. I felt that this was a significant omission. What will be interesting to know is the economic impact of this on the Egyptian economy and what foreign companies are involved. Please provide a single spiel on Egypt. I’d like to hear your assessment of the Egyptian’s army’s influence in the economy plus a discussion of Egypt’s foreign relations. Thanks much and keep up the great work.
If the US leave, and it's looking increasingly likely that that is the case, then resources in the Mediterranean are up for grabs. This means that those with military might will rule. In a word Turkey. However they will not be able to exploit it. Hence they will have to get a partner with a NATIONAL oil company like Total or ENI, because an independent company would leave at the first sight of trouble. It would also have to be tolerated by the other power in the Mediterranean, France (with assistance from Italy). This may mean that the Eastern Mediterranean oil and gas assets never get exploited. It will make sense for France to try to impoverish Turkey as much as possible as they are regional rivals.
"Egyptian army" ?!?? Anyone, even a tourist, who has spent sometime there know the army is a joke. Its a local mafia at best who extort money from local citizens.
Any implications for Egypt from Ethiopia's big dam project on the Blue Nile? That could have a very profound effect on the Egyptians seeing how something like 95% of Egyptians live within a short walk of the Nile, especially down south, and depend on it as their water source.
@@ivancho5854 Israel has good relations with Egypt, and the two cooperate on energy in the Mediterranean. Perhaps Israel can help provide some security for Egypt's offshore energy interests.
Love Peter, always so cheerful. Wheat isn't the only problem. In case anyone didn't notice, the price of rice is at a fifteen year high, back up to what it was in 2008. Remember 2008?
2008 Obama was elected and Oprah hugged that white guy in the park during his acceptance speech. That was the peak of America. Well, maybe pre-9/11 was the peak. Monica Lewinsky giving the POTUS a BJ in the White House while the Dream Team won by 6,000 pts over Angola was the peak.
Mentioning Morocco's trade ties to the US and not Europe is silly. France and Spain EACH import six times more from there than the US does. Morocco is not just a major supplier of fruit and vegetables; it is to Europe what Mexico is to the US, except smaller.
A lot of peters theories revolve around basically in the future if you are a friend of the us you will be fine and if you prefer Europe than you’re in for a world of stagnating economies and food shortages as Europe turns into the worlds greatest retirement home. In which Europe will not have enough people to keep the economic engines running at the rate they are today causing them to fall into a world of mediocrity (which spoiler alert they already began. The GDP of the EU hasn’t grown since 2008)
No, it is not ^^ I don't know why you guys don't understand numbers. Switzerland 8 million people has a GDP of 700 billion dollars. Morocco has a GDP of 170 billion dollars. If it is Europe's Mexico, it is very bad at that. Mexico has 1300 billion dollars in GDP. I know that doesn't feel good if you are a Moroccon. But Morocco has a lot of other things, they can be proud of like their history.
I'm assuming he takes into consideration that if international trade collapses America is the most valuable ally for them. Spain has no way to protect shipping on a global scale and lots of french allies hate them as described in this video.
Italy will never invade Libya to conquer it, because our state is based on only using our armed forces for defence purposes. That's because we've rejected Fascism and imperialism. Italy is, however, enhancing its capacity to operate on coastlines, project power and conduct massive landings. In case an emergency arises, Italy will be ready, but it will never colonise Libya nor any other country.
@@gs7828 you don't need to invade or colonize a country to exert hegemony over it. You can be subtle and work behind the scenes. There are other sorts of geopolitical action beyond the Russian ogreism .
@@gs7828 Your Italian "force" is antique, undersized and unable to fulfill mutual defense obligations. That is your fatal flaw. Trump stated atruth 3 years ago in an ugly fashion. The truth is the US is undersized for the new century coordinated challenge of tyrants Russia/China/Iran on two theatres. It will defend the Pacific first. It does not and will not defend two fronts. If it did this alone it will lose both. Our friends in the Pacific see the future clearly and together we hope " su vis pacem parabellum". So you quiet passive rationalizing pacifists better either figure it out or learn the Russian language dialect of serfs. They are coming. Are you going to prepare or eat pesca and capitulate? Up to you, paisano. Buon Fortuna.
The lack of tree point seems a bit pointless when we aren’t making boats out of wood anymore. Also Carthage which is now in modern times Tunisia was The Roman Republicans largest naval rival.
After this installment I'm very curious as to prognostications towards my new permanent country of residence; Portugal. It's an odd mix of positioning with demographic collapse, a loyal EU member, southern Europe economics, proximate to France and north Africa...
It`s going to shit. Portugal is a big underachiever. It was never colonized like Eastern Europe. It skipped both World Wars and it never had communism and yet somehow it managed to end up poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries like Czechia, Estonia, Slovenia, etc.
Did you retire in Portugal? If so, where were you before? The reason I ask is because a buddy of mine did so a couple years ago and loves it. He lives in a small town and I’m going to meet him there this summer to check it out.
Hi Peter from Turkey. First of all, keep up the good work 👌🏻 always looking forward to seeing your content. Just a little thing to add: Turkey might play a bigger role in Libya, especially with trying to get rid of France - as in west africa. Turkey works already close with Libya on different areas, both states agreed on shared maritime borders in the Mediterranean etc.
Finally Zeihan talks about Egypt but it’s hungry, sinking and broke and it’s a biblical exit story to get away from it… I’m sorry for asking you to talk about Egypt 😂
Peter, do you know that the Algerian national oil company is doing oil exploration internationally? Do you know that Algeria is highly regarded as a reliable oil supplier including during the civil war in the 90s. Do you know that Algerian oil engineers in the 70s where the only “Arabs” engineers to work for the golf states. Please elaborate on your sources and on how you come to your conclusion that Algeria doesn’t have the technical expertise in oil industry?
Thanks a lot... This guy have been to Morocco and Tunisia for hollidays and think that can make analysis of the region. 1:26 never had maritime history.. Go check why US navy was created!!! In 19th century
Someone forgot about the Barbary Pirates. Also South America can produce 100x more food than it does now, if there is demand for it. And if Egypt can pay for it we'll deliver.
Yeah, Barbary pirates existed because the European powers thought the North Africans were much stronger than they actually were. A North African country trying to do that in France or Italy today would be completely destroyed in 5 minutes.
@@jobloluther You are talking about their big city. But the land included algeria too. İt's where the rivers are and Libya was the land that separated carthage from Egypt. And then you have also a ton of vassal states which would be also part of the empire.
@davidbain8921 0 seconds ago Peter, Thanks for the info & hiking scenery. What is your take on 1) the Ethiopian dam on the Nile and 2) Egypt’s proposal to flood a massive basin with water from the Med?
Libya is a failed state due to US foreign policy, I don't believe the regional instability would have the same effect if things were dealt with differently! Unfortunately, US foreign policy, or the people involved haven't learned a thing from their previous interventions!
The living conditions in Libya is not the responsibility of the US. Colonel Q was killed by Libyans, I saw the video. It was not an American that gutted the Libyan dictator, it was one of his own
@@Drippydogetter ez ❄️ We are ALL allowed our individual opinion You sound like a chronic victim, it’s almost like your an American African or something
Peter, what about Egypts plan to build a huge lake in one of their valleys? They want to dig a canal to the Mediterranean sea and have it drain into a valley, cooling the area and brining rain more often with the hopes of making land that can grow crops.
Egypt is in trouble. But nowhere near to the extent Peter says. He left a lot of stuff out when it comes to their resources, innovation, and economy. Oil, fish farming, irrigation, just to name a few.
Morocco actually exports mad quantities of fruit and produce to Europe. Also, we had to ration the food in 1945 ( also known as the year of famine) because The Europeans were starving after WW2. So, you're welcome Europe, we made sure you were fed ( mainly the french) at our expense.
Morocco's historically been a friend to anyone who wants it, once y'all got over your barbary phase. the 1800's were rough but you really turned it around in the 1900's and now hold the highest spot as my most respected Arab state (as a European, and American citizen.)
Am I the only one that thinks that a post USA world can really find a way to just continue trading just in a more complicated way like it has done for thousands of years?
I'm a nobody so take what I say with a grain of salt. Of course the world will continue to trade. Ziehan never says that it won't. Ziehan just says this will be the end of globalization. So rather than countries being able to specialize, each country will need to become more self sufficient. Since we've lived in a globalized world for so long with the US Navy protecting trade, many countries (especially countries that industrialized after World War II) have had population booms without the growth of the internal infrastructure to support the population if free trade is taken away.
We did trade in the past, but it was only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of what we produced. Trade in the past was very difficult. Why do you think we colonized the world? To trade with them! There was no trade between competing entities. And in feudalism the competition was between cities. So you had very little trade between them. Oh my god, and then we had a ton of measurements and currencies. Different laws. It was a big mess.
@@devalapar7878 That was in Europe not the rest of the world . For much of history Europeans were the backwards ones and isolated from the rest of the world , but trade between Africa and Asia on the level of globalization has existed for a very long time
@@jeremybrunette598 but in the case of Egypt its like he assumes that the Egyptians will just sit idle and nothing just waiting to die from hunger. That is not how the world works. If they did they wouldn't be a civilazation that endured for 6000 years.
The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the world's largest known fossil water aquifer system. It is located underground in the Eastern end of the Sahara desert and spans the political boundaries of four countries in north-eastern Africa. The significance of the NSAS as a potential water resource for future development programs in these countries is large.
Way too pessimistic. Algeria/Tunisia/Morocco all have a dense tissue of modern motorways and railways and an educated population. There is semi-democracy and no ethnic or religious divisions. I don't foresee any problems there to the opposite it will be a high growth area in the next 20 years in manufacturing and agriculture.
It's nice to see that the back strain has alleviated. Colorado looks nice any time of the year. Crazy Comment - Egypt needs a big project using nuclear or maybe solar power to desalinate water from the Mediterranean and pump it onto their hungry land. Then they can grow anything in that sunny climate. Sure, it'll cost some money but it would give food independence and prevent the future starvation predicted by Peter.
Might as well add another significant trouble to Egypt’s list. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia is planning to dam the Nile river in its own territory. This would be a huge benefit for Ethiopia - generating such a large amount of hydroelectric power it could actually bring electricity to most of the country that currently doesn’t have any. Problem for Egypt is that even a 2% flow reduction during the years its takes for the reservoir to fill up could destroy up to 200,000 acres of farmland. Heated negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia are of course underway right now. But the situation is bad enough that Egypt vs Ethiopian could very easily be the next war that breaks out.
Dude, where have you been. The GERD is already done (95% of concrete has already been poured) and the filling is complete. It didn't destroy Egypt at all, that was fear mongering.
@@wakes_inc the dam construction is complete - filling it is not. Construction finished in 2020. Egypt has been demanding a full period of ten to twenty years and is currently demanding 12. Ethiopia is saying they plan to do it in 7 years. Keep in mind this reservoir is going to be half the size of Rhode Island. Ethiopia has gone ahead and done some intensive fill periods without Egyptian agreement. But they times these fill periods to coincide with fortunate monsoon rain events and one of the years in question was unusually wet. So when you say Egypt didn’t get harmed by it - that’s because the weather was favorable. But what if the weather isn’t favorable in future?
The GERD is pretty much done and Ethiopia is stabilizing and considering pushing to the sea. The Damn and if Ethiopia gains its own ports 10 15 years time egypt woulnt have a chance
@@DSNCB919 Somalia’s northern province of Somaliland just made a deal with Ethiopia to allow Ethiopia to use its port of Berbera on the Red Sea. Somalia is angry about it and rejecting it - but the central government has little power over the federal government of Somaliland and is crippled by its ongoing fights with Islamists in the south. Which leaves Somaliland - for the moment - able to act like its own separate country. And Ethiopia gets port access for the time being.
Peter, we all love your educational talks teaching us more about how geography and politics, etc, influence our present world, but, even though I have a fairly general picture in my mind of most of the regions you deal with, I think a map insert of the region would be helpful in illuminating your references. Maybe a thumbnail edited in later before streaming? You have done this before with talks about the Ukraine/Russia conflict very successfully. Speaking about talks, have you ever done a TED talk? I've seen many of your interviews (Joe R, etc) but never come across a TED talk? You are an educator par excellence, and could do a lot to changing the mind-set and belief system of many - all for the betterment of us as a civilized world society. We need open-minded intelligence, maturity and honesty now more than ever. Please help! Thank you.
Any thoughts on what happens if Egypt begins to administer eastern Libya and taps the Nubian Aquifer to irrigate the furtil fields in Western Egypt, the region Morsi was from?.
Algeria, from my understanding has ceased assisting western sahara militarily in its struggle for independence. And Morocco I think controls much of WS territory including its valuable phosphate mines. My interest was more on that angle. But there are definitely a tonne of moving parts in that region and I would absolutely be up for learning more about Morocco/Algerian current state of affairs too 👍
@@martinfitzsimons5884 Things are often much simpler than we think : Algeria wants to (1) be the dominant power in North Africa, and (2) get access to the Atlantic ocean. The creation of the SADR / WS issue is in line with that. Algeria is still hosting the Polisario separatists in Tindouf, who have just recently fired rockets towards a Moroccan city.
There's Nothing called western Sahara only on the maps😂however the only issue here is with Morocco and Algeria and whole world knows about it. Algeria will never get to the Atlantic and that's a fact 💯
Peter, I suggest shedding light on Russia’s desire to bring Uzbekistan to heel - who is providing sanctuary to large numbers of Russians who fled Russia. One such Russian in Uzbekistan is ‘Konstantin’, who posts a daily and delightful RUclips video called “Inside Russia” that comments on Russian affairs.
Libya's GDP per capita was 5 times higher than its neighbors before NATO intervention and Ghadafi's removal from power. It would be dishonest to not mention we intentionally drove them into their current predicament for the sake of our own interest.
There is a reason why the saying 'politics is the continuation of war' is true. People have been following their interesets since human beings came to live on earth. Some justify it with religion, some with other things. Gaddafi claimed he was a muslim while being best buddies with soviet communists who were beheading muslims in Chechenya. West let go of religion and uses politics and democracy. Human beings are playing the same games we have always played.
Such a horrific prediction about what will happen to the people of Egypt. What can be done? Shouldn’t we care? The nonchalant way we accept the suffering and death of millions of people is so depressing. Peter is very good about pointing out potential problems… and it’s important to know what the problems are… but what are we going to do about it? Surely there is something that can be done.
Regarding Egypt there is also the futur effect of the dam built by ethiopia which will reduce Nile flow to fill the dam's reservoir. It is estimated to reduce it by 25% for 5 years which will impact directly Egypt
Zeihan is great but he's missed a huge part of the puzzle re Egypt. That part of the puzzle is Ethiopia. Always admire the work but a major oversight here given Ethiopia is the country most likely to impact Egypt's future directly.
As a history buff, I can only imagine a Roman Senator from the 1st century AD or BC reacting to someone telling them that in the future Egypt is going to have to import wheat. After they finished laughing they'd probably ask for a sip of whatever it was that guy was drinking.
Egypt is a doomed state. They are already losing unsustainable amounts of farmland in the Nile Delta both from the decreased flow of the Nile and the reduction of silt deposits. The flow of the river protects the delta from being washed away. And the Aswan Dam, just as it is, reduces the flow of the Nile in dozens of ways. With the Aswan dam blocking the silt the Nile once carried to the Nile Delta, the lost soils of the delta are never replaced. With climate change and the fading of the American world order, this pattern spells the collapse of Egypt.
Data disagrees with you. Food production in Egypt is growing rxtremwly fast at double digit rate every year for the past few decades .don't underestimate human ingenuity and invention.
@rubine2000 The ability to irrigate the desert helps massively. But the Aswan dam has a massive silt problem, which fouls up irrigation. Also, fertilizers are needed to make the desert bloom. I want the Egyptians to crack the code, but they've a history of being more interested in fighting each other than rallying together to help themselves.
To be fair, he’s been predicting that China has less than ten years left for about twenty years now. He’s basically the Greta Thunberg of “The China is falling!”
@@isaackellogg3493 Funny analogy! Love it! Yes, Peter has been predicting China's fall for quite a while, but the ability of the Chinese to absorb pain seems to be almost infinite. However, a lot of cracks are now beginning to show. Their debt is unreal, national, provincial and hidden. Printing money only works until it doesn't. Foreign capital has been fleeing China for a while. The "money" is betting against China and for India, Vietnam etc. However, China has fragmented multiple times - Wiki lists about 75 dynasties. China is facing multiple problems and not seemingly finding solutions. They may not collapse in 10 years or even 20 - but something could happen in 2024. Their internal security is second to none - cameras everywhere. They've boasted that they can find anyone in 5 minutes. Probably not exactly true - but I wouldn't want to try to hide from the police in China. There's a tight lid on any possible revolution, but the CCP is the result of a revolution. How long before Chinese Dynasty #76? No one can foresee the future. All Peter does is make educated guesses based on info not everyone has. He's a very rational person. Unfortunately, many of the humans making those decisions don't always make the most rational choices. Peter sometimes is wrong on the timing, but for China, I think he's right on the "what".
if Brazil can successfully create their "tropic wheat" in time, i wonder how much thatd mean for the numerous countries in the tropics... assuming the cultivars could spread fast enough
If millions of migrants can somehow manage to cross the Sahara from Sub-Saharan Africa up to Libya and Morocco before crossing into Europe, I think it's safe to bet that Egyptians will somehow manage to find themselves along the same paths, if not by foot then by boat at least. Don't know how Europe will react if they're faced with 50 million Egyptian migrants trying to cross into the continent...
no way europe is gonna let them in, already there is a right wing backlash, if we have millions of mostly culturally incompatible people on our door, theres gonna be a lockdown i assume, especially after 2015.
@@eriksnyder4294 new COMPATIBLE people maybe. surely not people where the majority believes in the death penalty for apostasy or infidelity lol (look at the surveys of european muslims)
Thank you peter for this video, I think the only country in North africa capable of doing something interesting in the future is Morocco with all the challenges you mentioned : It's the most stable country in the region, they developped à good industrial policy, they are Well located and have great relations with Europe, UK and USA not to mention China and Gulf states. Tunisia could be much better but they need to elect à capable leadership!
Morocco has a potential conflict with a European country in possession of two colonies in its territory. Colonies that, as Algeria, are explicitly out of NATO protection.
@@Verbindungs Morocco will not enter in conflict with Spain, they are member of NATO so if Morocco launch an Attack on a Nato Member you know what happen next. Moreover Europe is the biggest trade partner of Morocco, I don't see why Morocco will commit a suicide attack
@@Verbindungs Morocco is working on developping in every domain and to succeed on it, the kingdom need peace not to mention that the first cause that mobilize the country is sahara conflict. Don't forget also that the 2 country with portugal will host the 2030 world cup so... Ceuta and mellilia are no interest for Morocco but the western sahara is a strategic issue (it's very windy and sunny, the coast is full of fish, it's rich in minerals maybe oil and gas...
Not sure about that. Morocco has been pissing a lot of people in the region in recent years. There was that blackmail over migrants with Spain, that spat about espionage on several European countries, the continued grudge with Algeria over West Sahara, etc. I don't think it's very wise from Morocco, especially if the American are losing interesting in the wider world and become much more isolationist.
The amazing thing is that even despite the terrible situation of the Arab countries, they do not manage to overcome their sick hatred of the Jews and Israel. The Egyptians, for example, despite over 40 years of peace with Israel, have almost no economic ties with Israel. Israel, a developed and modern country, does not need the Egyptians, but it has knowledge and technology about water that can help the Egyptians. But like all Muslims, they would rather die than trade with Israel. So their fate is truly sealed.
MAYBE it has something to do with how israel was created by ethnically cleansing 750 thousand palestinians, waging war against its neighbours and keeping up those activities for the last 70 years.
I emailed Peter a picture of a sandcastle my kid built. He replied back telling me it was "definitely going to collapse by the end of the decade".
Well was he wrong? Pics or it’s not.
So then, your kid is han chinese?
You serious?
Signs indicate a need for skepticism
Of course it will collapse,, it is a sand castle, not cement
Mr. Zeihan's optimism for some of these countries' futures is heart warming.
And his pessimism for others hopefully, and most likely, better than he foresees. Many of the people are still much closer to subsistance levels, either currently or in the recent past, and would have those survival skills readily to hand.
I think I know why he's saying this stuff. Notice how he's visiting every place one would have on their bucket list? Notice how everything is doom and gloom? I think he has a terminal illness and wants to say what he can before its too late.
Are you kidding? He is a cia warmonger.
Sometimes I wonder if it just depends on how he's feeling day to day. Picks out anecdotes about raw materials while ignoring/knowing nothing about ethereal factors.
@@zeplyn-r6 no, he reads cia analyst reports because that's who he is
I enjoy your regular apocalypse series explaining how every country in the world will collapse within a decade. It takes the pressure off getting out of bed in the morning.
Every country? Thats not true. And you have to define, what is a collapse. It may be a good collapse or a bad collapse. It may be a collapse of Armenia, if they cease to exist, but for the regular Armenian Joe everything may stay the same. There is a very popular old joke about a guy who lived 80 years and survived collapses of seven different countries he lived in. Basically he changed country 7x during his lifetime and never even set foot out of Mukachevo.
That's funny! Human civilization is on the verge of annihilation in the current decade.
Lots of places have “collapsed” and it’s easy to think that is the end of things, but life keeps going, and you have to make your way. Get out of bed in the morning and live life! Go on a hike and read a book and don’t spend too much time on social media, and find someone cute and make love. Peace and light.
When he came out with his opinion on Musk and X, that’s when I realized his takes are completely stupid.
As a Moroccan, yes we've got wheat issues but we are also exporting billions of produce to Europe, last time they ban exports some UK retailers had empty vegetables shelves. We aren't going to starve if we can't import wheat on the international market but we are likely to have worse water shortages if it doesn't rain this year after like 4 years of droughts. Even we have double the dam capacity per capital than either algeria or tunisia, those dams can't generate water without rain.
Lack of energy security is the main issue here, we don't have any oil and gas and can't even import cheap energy from the neighbor algeria due to the western sahara issue, the threat of war is always present. Tough renewables could be a solution and exporting it to the UK with the xlinks project might be really helpful.
Have not had a famine in many years. Too many people for the Earth to support. That is what happens when energy and food is abundant. Grasshoppers.
@@Snowmaners people been claiming there will be famine because of over population for centuries and here we are, it is just plain Malthusianism, people will find away and if things don't happen abruptly the population will slowly diminish to the available resources. Plus a lot of agriculture is unnecessary for food security, it is either to feed livestock or industry ( see ethanol )
famine happens due to logistical issues due to war for example, not a lack of food.
@@Snowmanersyou heard? We can eat the grasshoppers.!
Renewables will not be a solution for Morocco. Your only assets are, as far as I'm aware, phosphate and you buy arms from the USA. The phosphate is essential, which is good, but whoever controls the mines will export it, which less good. Algeria will probably either get invaded by France or arms from France, my bet would be invasion. I suspect that Morocco will be ok as it should survive because of phosphate, but it's not worth invading. Your biggest threat is likely that you might not be able to feed yourself, but wars are a solution for population control and if France needs North African colonies again then a war between Algeria and Morocco would reduce Algerian capabilities.
I suspect that the world is returning to more Machiavellian state politics.
@@ivancho5854 france would not touch algeria, they've got like 10% of the population who are algerians good luck dealing with that
war between algeria and morocco would be mainly about western sahara and a continuation of the sand war in the 60s
but it is mainly pointless and both countries don't have the capability to actually invade and reach the other party capital either way and the land is mostly a barren desert and any natural resources in there is not worth the trouble or even the cost of the war.
renewable are a good source of income if you could reach northern or europe, desertec was a good project but the german decided to waste resources on solar panels up north and closing their nuclear power plants and be at the mercy of their russian overlords, look at what it lead them.
Noor station was at some point the biggest in the world it was a show case for the project. There is high solar radiation in the region but also high wind all year long in some places too, we just lack the capital to build everything.
Teacher: Work hard and you win!
Zeihan: Geography is 90% of your future.....
Winning may or may not include switching geographies. The ability to do so DEFINETLY depends on your knowledge and education.
Both are true.
And as Peter Z often says in one form or another, “Ya gotta do the math!” Because “people don’t know how to do math!” LOL
Hardware vs. software.
One doesn't disprove the other.
Israel has poor geography but yet has managed its way out of poverty.
Egyptian here, thanks for making my day.
yeah the writing is on the wall, but you are one of the view that see it. Any plans to handle this situation?
@@captainalex157 Help from Netherlands. They are the experts in that matter.
And there are plants that grow well on salty land like Tulipes ^^ And you can even eat them.
I’m Moroccan and I feel you😢
The final claim that 110 million + Egyptians are going to "more or less die in silence" is beyond ludicrous. Firstly, transportation options have expanded somewhat since Biblical times. Secondly, there's the Suez Canal. Egypt matters and any failure of its ability to "function as a state" (a favorite Zeihan-ism) will have massive implications for the whole Middle East/Mediterranean region and wider world.
This is just what zeihan does... Doomerism
if the egyptian government cllapses, other powers are simply gonna take over the suez canal. possible a UN mission, so no one gets upset. Maybe Israel will annex it? would give it massive leverage.
well he is right egypy's population is too big to keep up given the nile's water supply is nt increasing anyday , so the famine que is a real one , but you know him he is the CEO of extreme predictions .
Peter makes extreme predictions based on assumption placed on top of other assumptions. That results in his end product being really shaky. USA, Russia, Germany and China are not going anywhere. Global trade is not going anywhere. And 110 million Egyptians are definitely not going to starve in silence.
The prediction is that Egypt will not have control over this anymore because of Turkey and Israel, they will essentially exist as the Turks want them to
I highly appreciate that you started by differentiating between Northern Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. We’re immensely different from each other. The fact that both of us exist on the second largest continent in the world is confusing to uninformed ppl!☮️❤️
It isn’t really true that the North African countries don’t have a maritime tradition. It just isn’t a mercantile one. We’ve all heard of the Barbary pirates, who preyed on shipping and raided Europe for slaves for centuries, and they were Berbers from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Even the US Marine Corps’ hymn, as I expect you know talks about the shores of Tripoli, as the young USA’s first foreign expedition was to quell them. North Africa’s maritime tradition is one of lawless attack and that’s worth bearing in mind when considering the future of the region.
Love, love, love your explanations, Peter! Mahalo nui, and hau'oli makahiki hou!!
Pete I find myself checking in with you every day! Good job brother! I don't agree with everything but I gain insight regardless! Thank you!
What jolly fun! A great way to begin the day!
As an Algerian ...I wish to confirme to you that this guy is living in an other reality
A Russian here, I also thought so in 2019. Guess what!😂😭😭😭
Dude, do you ever stop? Last 5-7 videos and more of yours, you are constantly on the move. Climbing, hiking, sailing! Well, enjoy and keep up the good work!
PZ could be about to be beheaded, getting a manicure, in a rocket on his way to Mars, buried to his head in the sand with amazon fire ants about to make a meal of him and he would still get in a word.....GO Peter....! So.....Like, Where in The World is Carmen Sandiego......? So here we have....Where in the World is Peter Zeihan......?
the "after America" series was prerecorded and some of his others videos are as well, recorded in just one take and uploaded at different days, he said this himself, he's still always on the move but not as crazy as it seems
Hey Peter! ✨
I follow your work to great delight and would love if us Danes could get your strategic visions!
You’ve recently mentioned Sweden in connection with the Nato Alliance, Norway in connection to natural ressources and quickly the whole of Scandinavia - But I’d really appreciate you looking at Denmark - We have the biggest Shipping compant (Mærsk), Medicinal company (Novo Nordisk) and WindMill manufacturer (Vestas) as well as fun cultures such as Højskoler. But yeah, I think your for how our future might look would be immensely valuable! I hope you get to read this comment!
All the best,
Sebastian from Denmark
Denmark is a small country. They will work with other Scandinavian countries. So they have probably a bright future.
As an 2nd generation Danish American, I’d be interested in this as well. With limited knowledge of the situation, my top concern for Denmark is what the impact of a decline Germany. As strong as Germany has been, they are heading towards a very difficult time that will last decades. Would you happen to know the state of the Danish demographics?
I think he will get around to it, but in his books, Peter has said that Denmark and the Netherlands are two European countries that the US will still care about, since they are like gates into Europe, along with the UK.
he just recently made a video on you if you havent checked it out yet!
1:18: the barbary pirates that wreaked havoc for centuries, that even the USA came and declared war on them.
Don't mess with our boats
Sweden pitched in too
And Carthage!
@@ArmouropoulosAnd the Vandals
Good point against what Peter said about naval power.
They had a big maritime history, The Barbary States raided whole Europe, even United States was at war with them.
"To the shores of Tripoli..." -Marine Corp anthem
The Algerian navy in the ottoman era , have even arrived to Iceland and cork county in Ireland.
1:13 "never a maritime power". Peter never heard of Carthage and the Phoenicians😂
And then they cut all the trees that made the lebanese cedar almost extinct. Also Tunisia had a wetter climate 2000 years ago.
The Phoenicians were from the easten Mediterranean, not North Africa. But yeah, I thought of Carthage and Barbary.
@@talideon Who do you think founded Carthage and all the other cities the Carthaginians were living? Its the Phoenicians.
All that's ancient history. Anachronistic thinking.
The air must be thin up there if you think Algeria and France are going to put the boxing gloves back on
😂 This guys crazy.
As an Algerian i was face palming the whole time, bro knows nothing about the region
@@abouranous hahahahaha exactly i am tunisian and i was laughing when he said Algeria and Algerian are pro usa ahahhahaha bro Algeria is pro pro Russia (and Algeria has been a pro Soviet Union ally for years) 🤦🤦🤦
There was no discussion about Egypt’s oil and gas production. I felt that this was a significant omission. What will be interesting to know is the economic impact of this on the Egyptian economy and what foreign companies are involved. Please provide a single spiel on Egypt. I’d like to hear your assessment of the Egyptian’s army’s influence in the economy plus a discussion of Egypt’s foreign relations. Thanks much and keep up the great work.
If the US leave, and it's looking increasingly likely that that is the case, then resources in the Mediterranean are up for grabs. This means that those with military might will rule. In a word Turkey. However they will not be able to exploit it. Hence they will have to get a partner with a NATIONAL oil company like Total or ENI, because an independent company would leave at the first sight of trouble. It would also have to be tolerated by the other power in the Mediterranean, France (with assistance from Italy). This may mean that the Eastern Mediterranean oil and gas assets never get exploited. It will make sense for France to try to impoverish Turkey as much as possible as they are regional rivals.
"Egyptian army" ?!?? Anyone, even a tourist, who has spent sometime there know the army is a joke. Its a local mafia at best who extort money from local citizens.
Any implications for Egypt from Ethiopia's big dam project on the Blue Nile? That could have a very profound effect on the Egyptians seeing how something like 95% of Egyptians live within a short walk of the Nile, especially down south, and depend on it as their water source.
@@ivancho5854 Israel has good relations with Egypt, and the two cooperate on energy in the Mediterranean. Perhaps Israel can help provide some security for Egypt's offshore energy interests.
most probably egypt will be taken over by russia unfortunately@@ivancho5854
Peter Zeihan,Thank you for sharing 🎉 Happy New Years to you……🙏for all of humanity.
Love Peter, always so cheerful. Wheat isn't the only problem. In case anyone didn't notice, the price of rice is at a fifteen year high, back up to what it was in 2008. Remember 2008?
2008 The Summer I witnessed The Dark Knight !!!!
YEAH !!!!!!!
2008 Obama was elected and Oprah hugged that white guy in the park during his acceptance speech. That was the peak of America. Well, maybe pre-9/11 was the peak. Monica Lewinsky giving the POTUS a BJ in the White House while the Dream Team won by 6,000 pts over Angola was the peak.
Another feel good story brought to you by Peter Zeihan
Mentioning Morocco's trade ties to the US and not Europe is silly. France and Spain EACH import six times more from there than the US does. Morocco is not just a major supplier of fruit and vegetables; it is to Europe what Mexico is to the US, except smaller.
A lot of peters theories revolve around basically in the future if you are a friend of the us you will be fine and if you prefer Europe than you’re in for a world of stagnating economies and food shortages as Europe turns into the worlds greatest retirement home. In which Europe will not have enough people to keep the economic engines running at the rate they are today causing them to fall into a world of mediocrity (which spoiler alert they already began. The GDP of the EU hasn’t grown since 2008)
No, it is not ^^
I don't know why you guys don't understand numbers.
Switzerland 8 million people has a GDP of 700 billion dollars.
Morocco has a GDP of 170 billion dollars.
If it is Europe's Mexico, it is very bad at that. Mexico has 1300 billion dollars in GDP. I know that doesn't feel good if you are a Moroccon. But Morocco has a lot of other things, they can be proud of like their history.
I'm assuming he takes into consideration that if international trade collapses America is the most valuable ally for them. Spain has no way to protect shipping on a global scale and lots of french allies hate them as described in this video.
@@justinbrannon1978 alot of his theories revolve around the US receding from the global sphere which couldnt be further from the present reality
Also Morocco is America's oldest friend.@@devalapar7878
Well, that was happy and uplifting!!
Italians invading Libya? That takes effort. They'll pass.
The Italians will discuss it forever and do nothing because everytime Italy has a new government (which happens once a month) they have start anew.
Are they going to field an army of 50 year olds? GLWT.
Italy will never invade Libya to conquer it, because our state is based on only using our armed forces for defence purposes. That's because we've rejected Fascism and imperialism. Italy is, however, enhancing its capacity to operate on coastlines, project power and conduct massive landings. In case an emergency arises, Italy will be ready, but it will never colonise Libya nor any other country.
@@gs7828 you don't need to invade or colonize a country to exert hegemony over it. You can be subtle and work behind the scenes. There are other sorts of geopolitical action beyond the Russian ogreism .
@@gs7828 Your Italian "force" is antique, undersized and unable to fulfill mutual defense obligations. That is your fatal flaw.
Trump stated atruth 3 years ago in an ugly fashion. The truth is the US is undersized for the new century coordinated challenge of tyrants Russia/China/Iran on two theatres. It will defend the Pacific first. It does not and will not defend two fronts. If it did this alone it will lose both. Our friends in the Pacific see the future clearly and together we hope " su vis pacem parabellum".
So you quiet passive rationalizing pacifists better either figure it out or learn the Russian language dialect of serfs. They are coming. Are you going to prepare or eat pesca and capitulate? Up to you, paisano. Buon Fortuna.
The lack of tree point seems a bit pointless when we aren’t making boats out of wood anymore. Also Carthage which is now in modern times Tunisia was The Roman Republicans largest naval rival.
After this installment I'm very curious as to prognostications towards my new permanent country of residence; Portugal. It's an odd mix of positioning with demographic collapse, a loyal EU member, southern Europe economics, proximate to France and north Africa...
We are a vassal to the UK. Whatever the UK feels like it, we follow. This country is no longer independent.
It`s going to shit. Portugal is a big underachiever. It was never colonized like Eastern Europe. It skipped both World Wars and it never had communism and yet somehow it managed to end up poorer than a lot of Eastern European countries like Czechia, Estonia, Slovenia, etc.
Probably a lot of junkies from North Africa.
He's talked about it before. Portugal likely siding with the Brits and by extension Americans.
Did you retire in Portugal? If so, where were you before? The reason I ask is because a buddy of mine did so a couple years ago and loves it. He lives in a small town and I’m going to meet him there this summer to check it out.
I see your back is feeling better.
Hi Peter from Turkey. First of all, keep up the good work 👌🏻 always looking forward to seeing your content. Just a little thing to add: Turkey might play a bigger role in Libya, especially with trying to get rid of France - as in west africa. Turkey works already close with Libya on different areas, both states agreed on shared maritime borders in the Mediterranean etc.
Turkey REALLY doesnt like France, or so it seems. 😅
Yes. I was thinking the same thing.
And Turkey and Italy supported the GNA against LNA supported by Wagner, Syria and France, as part of the libya Civil War.
Free Kurdistan!
Turkey does not have the logistical capacity to project power. It's a regional land power.
This has been a great series
I reckon Egypts problems will become even less noticed if the Red Sea - Suez Canal shipping route continues to be interupted by problems in the south.
Peter, I just love your videos. So much information in so little time and I understand everything because you explain it so beautifully.
Thanks
Finally Zeihan talks about Egypt but it’s hungry, sinking and broke and it’s a biblical exit story to get away from it… I’m sorry for asking you to talk about Egypt 😂
That's a pity as the Egyptian people (together with the Palestinians) are amongst the most hospitable I've experienced
Peter, do you know that the Algerian national oil company is doing oil exploration internationally? Do you know that Algeria is highly regarded as a reliable oil supplier including during the civil war in the 90s. Do you know that Algerian oil engineers in the 70s where the only “Arabs” engineers to work for the golf states. Please elaborate on your sources and on how you come to your conclusion that Algeria doesn’t have the technical expertise in oil industry?
Thanks a lot... This guy have been to Morocco and Tunisia for hollidays and think that can make analysis of the region. 1:26 never had maritime history.. Go check why US navy was created!!! In 19th century
Someone forgot about the Barbary Pirates. Also South America can produce 100x more food than it does now, if there is demand for it. And if Egypt can pay for it we'll deliver.
We might really need you guys...
Yeah, Barbary pirates existed because the European powers thought the North Africans were much stronger than they actually were. A North African country trying to do that in France or Italy today would be completely destroyed in 5 minutes.
Hi Peter Zeihan
The videos are amazing. Can you talk about Central Asia after America.
Wish i was on a trail like that right now.
1:18 Other than Carthage and the Barbary states, two of humanity’s most famous maritime civilizations…
Carthage is mainly Algeria. And have you never wondered why North Africans were famous pirates like Barbarossa?
@@devalapar7878 Because they were poor ? and couldn't produce any domestic product worth selling ?
@@devalapar7878 Carthage is mainly Tunisia wtf
@@jobloluther You are talking about their big city. But the land included algeria too.
İt's where the rivers are and Libya was the land that separated carthage from Egypt. And then you have also a ton of vassal states which would be also part of the empire.
The core was Tunisia @@devalapar7878
@davidbain8921
0 seconds ago
Peter, Thanks for the info & hiking scenery. What is your take on 1) the Ethiopian dam on the Nile and 2) Egypt’s proposal to flood a massive basin with water from the Med?
I wonder what Peter's perspective is on the Ethiopian dam projects that are ongoing and how that fits into Egypt's future.
Hi Peter from Australia. Good to see your back is feeling great again. Keep coming with the content. Cheers and happy new year. Damo
You seem not to be paying attention to his videos. Post-American serie was prerecorded
You have a nice day too, Zeihan.
Thank you so much for doing this channel! I love all of your videos and have learned so much. Big hugs to you!!
Mr. Zeihan has been accurate so far. He does something only a few of us do. He uses his frontal lobe!
😂😂😂😂😂😂
You are wrong about Libya. Turkey is already in there in a big way. I don't think they are leaving.
Thank you.
Libya is a failed state due to US foreign policy, I don't believe the regional instability would have the same effect if things were dealt with differently! Unfortunately, US foreign policy, or the people involved haven't learned a thing from their previous interventions!
The civil war there started BEFORE American intervention. So still a failed state.
The living conditions in Libya is not the responsibility of the US. Colonel Q was killed by Libyans, I saw the video. It was not an American that gutted the Libyan dictator, it was one of his own
Good information appreciate your channel! Is all that info stored in that manbun?
God bless you BTW!
Peter lookin fly
Nope. Needs a haircut
And sunglasses made for men
@@Paint-brigade1776 they’re called hater blockers cuz he cant see you
@@Drippydogetter ez ❄️
We are ALL allowed our individual opinion
You sound like a chronic victim, it’s almost like your an American African or something
Peter, what about Egypts plan to build a huge lake in one of their valleys? They want to dig a canal to the Mediterranean sea and have it drain into a valley, cooling the area and brining rain more often with the hopes of making land that can grow crops.
Egypt is in trouble. But nowhere near to the extent Peter says. He left a lot of stuff out when it comes to their resources, innovation, and economy. Oil, fish farming, irrigation, just to name a few.
Good Video Choice. Thanks.
Could you do a post American Scandinavia?
More nudity for everyone.
+1
He already did!
it will no longer be scandinavian. but that is their own fault
Wow, after that last back injury from previous incline... the ending despair is uncanny🎭
Morocco actually exports mad quantities of fruit and produce to Europe. Also, we had to ration the food in 1945 ( also known as the year of famine) because The Europeans were starving after WW2. So, you're welcome Europe, we made sure you were fed ( mainly the french) at our expense.
Morocco's historically been a friend to anyone who wants it, once y'all got over your barbary phase. the 1800's were rough but you really turned it around in the 1900's and now hold the highest spot as my most respected Arab state (as a European, and American citizen.)
That was cheerful .
I'd like to see an America, post America talk.
what a way to end a speech! "They end in silence" I need to watch this again...
Am I the only one that thinks that a post USA world can really find a way to just continue trading just in a more complicated way like it has done for thousands of years?
I'm a nobody so take what I say with a grain of salt.
Of course the world will continue to trade. Ziehan never says that it won't. Ziehan just says this will be the end of globalization. So rather than countries being able to specialize, each country will need to become more self sufficient. Since we've lived in a globalized world for so long with the US Navy protecting trade, many countries (especially countries that industrialized after World War II) have had population booms without the growth of the internal infrastructure to support the population if free trade is taken away.
Of course they'll find a way, but that way is going to look a lot more like the 19th century than the late 20th.
We did trade in the past, but it was only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of what we produced.
Trade in the past was very difficult. Why do you think we colonized the world? To trade with them! There was no trade between competing entities.
And in feudalism the competition was between cities. So you had very little trade between them.
Oh my god, and then we had a ton of measurements and currencies. Different laws. It was a big mess.
@@devalapar7878 That was in Europe not the rest of the world . For much of history Europeans were the backwards ones and isolated from the rest of the world , but trade between Africa and Asia on the level of globalization has existed for a very long time
@@jeremybrunette598 but in the case of Egypt its like he assumes that the Egyptians will just sit idle and nothing just waiting to die from hunger. That is not how the world works. If they did they wouldn't be a civilazation that endured for 6000 years.
The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the world's largest known fossil water aquifer system. It is located underground in the Eastern end of the Sahara desert and spans the political boundaries of four countries in north-eastern Africa. The significance of the NSAS as a potential water resource for future development programs in these countries is large.
Way too pessimistic. Algeria/Tunisia/Morocco all have a dense tissue of modern motorways and railways and an educated population. There is semi-democracy and no ethnic or religious divisions.
I don't foresee any problems there to the opposite it will be a high growth area in the next 20 years in manufacturing and agriculture.
I'm pessimistic. Their proximity to Europe and the Middle East is a perennial problem.
Hope the back is feeling better!
It's nice to see that the back strain has alleviated. Colorado looks nice any time of the year. Crazy Comment - Egypt needs a big project using nuclear or maybe solar power to desalinate water from the Mediterranean and pump it onto their hungry land. Then they can grow anything in that sunny climate. Sure, it'll cost some money but it would give food independence and prevent the future starvation predicted by Peter.
The problem is cost. It’s much cheaper to import food from other areas of the globe not experiencing water shortages.
Please Do the "Southern Cone" for ...After America would be interesting .... thanks
Might as well add another significant trouble to Egypt’s list.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Ethiopia is planning to dam the Nile river in its own territory. This would be a huge benefit for Ethiopia - generating such a large amount of hydroelectric power it could actually bring electricity to most of the country that currently doesn’t have any.
Problem for Egypt is that even a 2% flow reduction during the years its takes for the reservoir to fill up could destroy up to 200,000 acres of farmland.
Heated negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia are of course underway right now.
But the situation is bad enough that Egypt vs Ethiopian could very easily be the next war that breaks out.
The Egyptians, Sudanese and Ethiopians need to come upon some form of water sharing agreement, like what India and Pakistan have.
Dude, where have you been. The GERD is already done (95% of concrete has already been poured) and the filling is complete. It didn't destroy Egypt at all, that was fear mongering.
@@wakes_inc the dam construction is complete - filling it is not. Construction finished in 2020.
Egypt has been demanding a full period of ten to twenty years and is currently demanding 12.
Ethiopia is saying they plan to do it in 7 years. Keep in mind this reservoir is going to be half the size of Rhode Island.
Ethiopia has gone ahead and done some intensive fill periods without Egyptian agreement.
But they times these fill periods to coincide with fortunate monsoon rain events and one of the years in question was unusually wet. So when you say Egypt didn’t get harmed by it - that’s because the weather was favorable.
But what if the weather isn’t favorable in future?
The GERD is pretty much done and Ethiopia is stabilizing and considering pushing to the sea. The Damn and if Ethiopia gains its own ports 10 15 years time egypt woulnt have a chance
@@DSNCB919 Somalia’s northern province of Somaliland just made a deal with Ethiopia to allow Ethiopia to use its port of Berbera on the Red Sea. Somalia is angry about it and rejecting it - but the central government has little power over the federal government of Somaliland and is crippled by its ongoing fights with Islamists in the south.
Which leaves Somaliland - for the moment - able to act like its own separate country. And Ethiopia gets port access for the time being.
Peter, we all love your educational talks teaching us more about how geography and politics, etc, influence our present world, but, even though I have a fairly general picture in my mind of most of the regions you deal with, I think a map insert of the region would be helpful in illuminating your references. Maybe a thumbnail edited in later before streaming? You have done this before with talks about the Ukraine/Russia conflict very successfully.
Speaking about talks, have you ever done a TED talk? I've seen many of your interviews (Joe R, etc) but never come across a TED talk? You are an educator par excellence, and could do a lot to changing the mind-set and belief system of many - all for the betterment of us as a civilized world society. We need open-minded intelligence, maturity and honesty now more than ever. Please help! Thank you.
Any thoughts on what happens if Egypt begins to administer eastern Libya and taps the Nubian Aquifer to irrigate the furtil fields in Western Egypt, the region Morsi was from?.
I mean how long would that last? Also does Egypt have that capability? If they did that, wouldn't they lose all their allies?
@@devalapar7878 I've seen estimates that it would constitute a 900yr supply and if used for irrigation there would be some recharging.
Great video
Would like to hear your take on the Morocco/Western Sahara issue if you ever get time.
you mean the Morocco / Algeria issue ?
Algeria, from my understanding has ceased assisting western sahara militarily in its struggle for independence. And Morocco I think controls much of WS territory including its valuable phosphate mines. My interest was more on that angle. But there are definitely a tonne of moving parts in that region and I would absolutely be up for learning more about Morocco/Algerian current state of affairs too 👍
@@martinfitzsimons5884 Things are often much simpler than we think : Algeria wants to (1) be the dominant power in North Africa, and (2) get access to the Atlantic ocean. The creation of the SADR / WS issue is in line with that. Algeria is still hosting the Polisario separatists in Tindouf, who have just recently fired rockets towards a Moroccan city.
There's Nothing called western Sahara only on the maps😂however the only issue here is with Morocco and Algeria and whole world knows about it. Algeria will never get to the Atlantic and that's a fact 💯
He already talked about this.
Peter,
I suggest shedding light on Russia’s desire to bring Uzbekistan to heel - who is providing sanctuary to large numbers of Russians who fled Russia. One such Russian in Uzbekistan is ‘Konstantin’, who posts a daily and delightful RUclips video called “Inside Russia” that comments on Russian affairs.
Something tells me that Peter has entire room devoted to storing all those sunglasses.
Thank you!
Libya's GDP per capita was 5 times higher than its neighbors before NATO intervention and Ghadafi's removal from power. It would be dishonest to not mention we intentionally drove them into their current predicament for the sake of our own interest.
Thanks Hillary "we came we saw he died lmao"
There is a reason why the saying 'politics is the continuation of war' is true.
People have been following their interesets since human beings came to live on earth.
Some justify it with religion, some with other things.
Gaddafi claimed he was a muslim while being best buddies with soviet communists who were beheading muslims in Chechenya.
West let go of religion and uses politics and democracy.
Human beings are playing the same games we have always played.
Is that 'per capita GDP' with or without the oil revenue that the average Lybian probably didn't get much benefit from?
Video on Puerto Rico please!
Damn it man. Feel bad for the Egyptians. Not so much for Libya. Great reporting Sr.
Why not for Libya?
@@A.Severan ... egypt will starve with tens of milllions , whilst lybia will have western support in oil and industry big difference
Thanks for your insight Peter. Could you possibly make a video what would also in part or in full be about Greece and its geopolitical future?
Lol. Who the fk is greece that anyone will be interested to make a video for?
You really need to get a life @@hasankilic9825
Such a horrific prediction about what will happen to the people of Egypt. What can be done? Shouldn’t we care? The nonchalant way we accept the suffering and death of millions of people is so depressing. Peter is very good about pointing out potential problems… and it’s important to know what the problems are… but what are we going to do about it? Surely there is something that can be done.
Just remember them and keep them in our thoughts 😢
Regarding Egypt there is also the futur effect of the dam built by ethiopia which will reduce Nile flow to fill the dam's reservoir. It is estimated to reduce it by 25% for 5 years which will impact directly Egypt
Morocco! Our first friends. I hope things go well for them.
thx mate
Zeihan is great but he's missed a huge part of the puzzle re Egypt. That part of the puzzle is Ethiopia. Always admire the work but a major oversight here given Ethiopia is the country most likely to impact Egypt's future directly.
As a history buff, I can only imagine a Roman Senator from the 1st century AD or BC reacting to someone telling them that in the future Egypt is going to have to import wheat. After they finished laughing they'd probably ask for a sip of whatever it was that guy was drinking.
Weren't Romans aware of climate?
Well, if you tell that senator that Egypt has 100m+ population and growing, then they will stop laughing.
@@celdur4635 It would be shocking for the Roman senator to hear that some countries have more people than the entire Roman Empire.
What's Tunisia -- chopped liver? Or did I miss your comment on that?
Egypt is a doomed state. They are already losing unsustainable amounts of farmland in the Nile Delta both from the decreased flow of the Nile and the reduction of silt deposits. The flow of the river protects the delta from being washed away. And the Aswan Dam, just as it is, reduces the flow of the Nile in dozens of ways. With the Aswan dam blocking the silt the Nile once carried to the Nile Delta, the lost soils of the delta are never replaced.
With climate change and the fading of the American world order, this pattern spells the collapse of Egypt.
Data disagrees with you. Food production in Egypt is growing rxtremwly fast at double digit rate every year for the past few decades .don't underestimate human ingenuity and invention.
@rubine2000 The ability to irrigate the desert helps massively. But the Aswan dam has a massive silt problem, which fouls up irrigation. Also, fertilizers are needed to make the desert bloom. I want the Egyptians to crack the code, but they've a history of being more interested in fighting each other than rallying together to help themselves.
Snow in the Sierra Nevada in August?
North Africa has at least at one time had a maritime tradition, Barbary Pirates
Can u explain the current relation between algeria snd france plz
Just finished the Zeihan piece of the fall of China and North America poised to be on top.
To be fair, he’s been predicting that China has less than ten years left for about twenty years now. He’s basically the Greta Thunberg of “The China is falling!”
@@isaackellogg3493 Funny analogy! Love it!
Yes, Peter has been predicting China's fall for quite a while, but the ability of the Chinese to absorb pain seems to be almost infinite. However, a lot of cracks are now beginning to show.
Their debt is unreal, national, provincial and hidden.
Printing money only works until it doesn't.
Foreign capital has been fleeing China for a while. The "money" is betting against China and for India, Vietnam etc.
However, China has fragmented multiple times - Wiki lists about 75 dynasties. China is facing multiple problems and not seemingly finding solutions. They may not collapse in 10 years or even 20 - but something could happen in 2024.
Their internal security is second to none - cameras everywhere. They've boasted that they can find anyone in 5 minutes. Probably not exactly true - but I wouldn't want to try to hide from the police in China.
There's a tight lid on any possible revolution, but the CCP is the result of a revolution.
How long before Chinese Dynasty #76?
No one can foresee the future. All Peter does is make educated guesses based on info not everyone has. He's a very rational person. Unfortunately, many of the humans making those decisions don't always make the most rational choices. Peter sometimes is wrong on the timing, but for China, I think he's right on the "what".
Do Baltic countries next!
if Brazil can successfully create their "tropic wheat" in time, i wonder how much thatd mean for the numerous countries in the tropics... assuming the cultivars could spread fast enough
You should post a clearly-visible note saying "BUZZKILL ALERT" below the title for this one.
If millions of migrants can somehow manage to cross the Sahara from Sub-Saharan Africa up to Libya and Morocco before crossing into Europe, I think it's safe to bet that Egyptians will somehow manage to find themselves along the same paths, if not by foot then by boat at least. Don't know how Europe will react if they're faced with 50 million Egyptian migrants trying to cross into the continent...
Europe will become poor and backward. 😂
no way europe is gonna let them in, already there is a right wing backlash, if we have millions of mostly culturally incompatible people on our door, theres gonna be a lockdown i assume, especially after 2015.
Europe will say thank you. Germany is aging and needs new people.
You are talking about a small fraction. There are 100 million people in Egypt.
@@eriksnyder4294 new COMPATIBLE people maybe. surely not people where the majority believes in the death penalty for apostasy or infidelity lol (look at the surveys of european muslims)
Can't they ship rice to these countries if wheat isn't an option?
Thank you for another informative installment of "earth 101". I enjoy your intelligent company every morning.
what do you think that will happened in the balkans in post usa world
Thank you peter for this video, I think the only country in North africa capable of doing something interesting in the future is Morocco with all the challenges you mentioned : It's the most stable country in the region, they developped à good industrial policy, they are Well located and have great relations with Europe, UK and USA not to mention China and Gulf states.
Tunisia could be much better but they need to elect à capable leadership!
Morocco has a potential conflict with a European country in possession of two colonies in its territory. Colonies that, as Algeria, are explicitly out of NATO protection.
@@Verbindungs Morocco will not enter in conflict with Spain, they are member of NATO so if Morocco launch an Attack on a Nato Member you know what happen next. Moreover Europe is the biggest trade partner of Morocco, I don't see why Morocco will commit a suicide attack
@@Verbindungs Morocco is not that dumb man. They aren't willingly going to invade Spain bruh
@@Verbindungs Morocco is working on developping in every domain and to succeed on it, the kingdom need peace not to mention that the first cause that mobilize the country is sahara conflict. Don't forget also that the 2 country with portugal will host the 2030 world cup so... Ceuta and mellilia are no interest for Morocco but the western sahara is a strategic issue (it's very windy and sunny, the coast is full of fish, it's rich in minerals maybe oil and gas...
Not sure about that. Morocco has been pissing a lot of people in the region in recent years. There was that blackmail over migrants with Spain, that spat about espionage on several European countries, the continued grudge with Algeria over West Sahara, etc. I don't think it's very wise from Morocco, especially if the American are losing interesting in the wider world and become much more isolationist.
@zeihanongeopolitics what about Tunisia? Are you placing it in the same sphere as Algeria and Libia? Thank you
nah he said, theyll be fine because of good relations to the EU. But that might still change, who knows.
The amazing thing is that even despite the terrible situation of the Arab countries, they do not manage to overcome their sick hatred of the Jews and Israel. The Egyptians, for example, despite over 40 years of peace with Israel, have almost no economic ties with Israel. Israel, a developed and modern country, does not need the Egyptians, but it has knowledge and technology about water that can help the Egyptians. But like all Muslims, they would rather die than trade with Israel. So their fate is truly sealed.
yeah they are very tribalistic, interesting that they never developed beyond that.
Organized religion causes more harm than virtually anything else in the world.
MAYBE it has something to do with how israel was created by ethnically cleansing 750 thousand palestinians, waging war against its neighbours and keeping up those activities for the last 70 years.
Why would they want ties with the last European colony in the middle east. Israelis are invader and will be driven back to europe.
@@captainalex157 look how is talking
And on that cheery note…
I’m almost in awe on how shallow these analyses. But maybe thats how Americans think