Sub-Saharan Africa, After America || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 26 сен 2024
- Next on the list in our 'Post-American' series is Sub-Saharan Africa. This region is filled with geographical challenges, slow growth and development, and several other obstacles, but a handful of countries will be alright.
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#algeria #nigeria #southafrica #africa
I’m so glad I discovered PZ at 60. I straddle that Boomer/Gen-X line, culturally. I’ve been through the height of globalization and watched it retreat slowly. It’s so fascinating to have grown up learning about colonialism and industrialization, then independence and post modernism, and finally watch this new era unfold. I intend to hang on for a while just to watch the show. It’s going to be a hell of a ride.
Ill get the popcorn old man, this is history in the making.
@52 I'm right behind you.
daily cardio will extend life!
@@basillomanchenko2171 🤣
The saying "may you live in interesting times" really applies, no?
As a norwegian I find your description of our countrys different public personalities very funny, and spot on:D
Norway wants the world to be Norway and expects that everyone wants to be like Norway. Just as dumb as the USA trying to force the Middle East to be democratic and Western. Some people never learn.
Swedes are often thought of as socialists, but Saab, Volvo and Ikea are great capitalist entities. They talk socialism while doing capitalism.
@@MarkRoy-e2b
No socialism whatsoever. Social democracy.
Big difference, but most americans haven't got the faintest clue.
as another norwegian... FACTS
I am glad you mentioned Kenya and Tanzania. Being saying for a long time these is a high growth area with a great future. As a South African I think we can learn a lot from Kenya and Tanzania economically.
I worked in Tanzania for 3 years straight in the late 1960's. I remember having the exact same discussions there in Dar Es Salaam about whether the country would develop. Many decades later it has muddled along I would say, but very slow real development. My thinking is that the incredible population growth rates made real improvement almost impossible which has led to leadership essentially giving up the race. Population late 60's ... around 11 or 12 million. Population now over 65 million. That is in just five decades. I can't think any country getting ahead of that.
Kenya & Uganda were the ones mentioned. I wondered by Tanzania did not get a mention. Maybe JimLambrick's comment is a clue.
He mentioned Kenya and Uganda.
Tanzania education system is not as good and most people without a higher education cannot communicate in English unlike Kenya and Uganda.
@@JimLambrick I thought demographics is destiny.
It is for sure... either too much growth or not enough or negative. @@farzana6676
As a South African our biggest problem since apartheid is the ungodly levels of corruption. You can not create jobs or infrastructure if the money meant for that task is being stolen by an incompetent government !
The safety of the farmers must become paramount. If the farms are black-owned and run then fine. If they are white-owned and run then that should be equally fine. Same story with coloreds, Indians, and Chinese - if there are any! No matter who owns the farm, the country's wealth and food security depends on giving farmers the basic levels of security they deserve.
You mean, Black people..
Looking forward to the "Zeihan after Trump wins 2024 election" video.
Blacks cannot self govern.
He did sort of gloss over the governance issues in SA as well as the other countries.
I'm Kenyan and like your take on Kenya 🇰🇪. Big potential.
What is it based on?
Anyone can make an assessment about anything, you are just silly because you like what he said about your unfunctional country due to corruption 🤦🏾♂️
@@felixhabarugira7680
There's some truth based on geography and recent trends in Kenya. But Tz is more promising than UG due to geography again, UG, Rwanda and Burundi (if their internal stuff get sorted) are also trailing on these two.
@@felixhabarugira7680Just stop it, he talked about most educated people in Africa are Kenyans & Ugandans.
@maxwellkariuki2930 Well, most educated people are Nigerians, Libyans, and Seychelles, equatorial guinea, not Kenyans or Ugandans
Yes, you can be proud of your country, but let's face you have no dignity when it comes to governance
@@maxwellkariuki2930 😄
What a simplistic view of Africa.
ruclips.net/user/shortsmNmJ_mzbcxc?si=A5cwv_FQw8GbLous
It’s a 15 minute video about an ethnically diverse continent and the geography. What did you think you were going to get lol
@@alros1212 Lol. I really don't understand too. And he even narrowed it down to a few countries to summarize their economic outlook. RUclips is replete with videos that will go in depth by even talking about a specific country per video or you can even buy books that will give you more and finer detailed.
@@alros1212
Then don’t do such content. We don’t do little videos when addressing a complex topic. We take the time to address the issues adequately otherwise we don’t do it.
Exactly, I actually think the main problem in this world is perspective. There are different ways of living and that is ok.
The West's technology is causing an existential crisis worldwide - Climate change, pollution, unnatural foods, deforestation, loneliness, depletion of resources, materialism, corruption, deterioration of family values and community, crime, unsustainability. Mother Africa upholds the natural world and does not need mass development, hierarchies, or capitalism. She thrives of symbiotic micro communities, organic farming/agriculture, bio-diverse ecosystems, sustainability, art, and spirituality. Africa has a different climate and cultural context. The land is fertile, the weather is warm, we do not need the same mechanisms as the West to survive in colder, brutal climates. Not everyone is built or wants to live the way that people in the West do! There needs to be a balance of the technical and the natural world - The scientific and the spiritual world. Without this there is no balance.
Also, we can discuss geopolitics all day but people have been thriving in their communities without any contact with rest of the world for centuries. Africans have ultimately survived in their conditions. So to say Africa is falling behind due to geopolitics is actually bullshit. This is coming from a Western perspective that values infrastructure and being permanent in one place. I would say a lot of ethnic groups in Africa are actually nomadic in nature. Therefore, it is a battle between ‘lifestyle’, and what one group feels is appropriate for another without understanding the cultural context.
The most accurate description of Norwegians I have heard to date and why I love them. 😂
Honestly Nigeria , Kenya , Ethopia , Egypt and Southafrica have soo much potential i just cant give up hope on them.
S.A. is too burdened down by its history for anything amazing to happen there within our lifetimes, or our children's I believe. The rest have a chance.
Man Nigeria is so primed to be the big boy on the continent.
@@ajgraves8016 exactly they just need leadership.
I would kick nigeria as well because of incompetent and pathetic leadership
@@alimo3011 I mean this are the best shots of africa I am aware of their inadequacies. simply some Yugoslavias are better than some other Yugoslavias .
It's crazy how I and we in my school were never taught about the poor geography in Africa being one of the main reasons for its lack of development. It wasn't until I watched a Thomas Sowell (of all people) a while back and now this that I was aware of this. Had never thought of Africa as so elevated.
PS: why no mention of Djibouti?
Yes it is an interesting feature of Sub-Saharan Africa, no navigable river like the Nile in Egypt.
Are you serious? I have learnt that 30 years ago in geography in the 8th and 9th year of school (not even highschool). I guess we in Switzerland have a better education system. Geography in Switzerland is really important, because we are a mountain region.
@@Seany06 I think Peter may have covered Djibouti in another video some time ago.
I know others have.
Its not only an interesting place but in the current situation in the Red Sea its even more interesting.
Just a side info: Africa has rougly 700 lakes. Europe has over 100 thousand lakes.
This just shows how concentrated the water in Africa is while in Europe it is distributed over the whole continent.
But it doesn't end there, they also have soil that requires a lot of work, bad climate, a lot of diseases (so no big cattle farms), no unifying structures, ...
I mean why else would Africa be so far behind the rest of the world? Are Africans just stupid? Obviously not!
And bad geographies put a lot of pressures on populations. It can be the cause of violence.
Hey, I’m enjoying the post America series. I know that’s it’s probably insignificant, but could you do a bonus episode on Caribbean and maybe also pacific nations? They aren’t regions people often talk about. Anyway can’t wait to see what you do next.
i second that about Caribbean
Hey Peter could you please do a part of this series where you talk about scandinavia or the nordic european countries in general?
Pretty sure he’s high on them relatively speaking
Nordic Europe - Yawn. No babies = No future. Until then they will be value added economies, until they are not.
I would extend what you said about Nigeria to much of the rest of the West African coast, as most of the coastline there is flat. Some countries there like Ghana are educated, the region largely speaks English and French, and they lie on the same time zones as Europe, so I could see a lot of service sector and manufacturing jobs developing in West Africa.
I would like to also mention that Ethiopia has a larger population than their neighbours, a temperate climate and a quickly growing economy. When Ethiopia gets better access to the sea and deals with it's internal divisions, then they will likely do well.
Another thing about the world as a whole is that a lot of authoritarian governments can afford to be authoritarian because they don't rely on their citizen's productivity to get wealth. If global trade decreases, then resource based countries will likely get better governance in the long-run.
Most of west Africa is also self sufficient in food and fuel. I am bullish on the west African coast.
Nigerians are the most educated with the biggest economy. Ghanaians only speak English. Cameroon speaks English and French.
@@KaeMaidenyou be mumu? Ghana 🇬🇭 literacy rate is 69.8% while Nigeria Data from the ministry of education revealed that as of September 2021, 38 percent of the estimated 200 million population, representing over 76 million adults, are non-literates. But Goodluck Opiah, minister of state for education, speaking at the ministerial briefing to mark the 2022 International Literacy Day, said the figure has dropped despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ethopia wong get any ports us somalis will never give them anything
Re: Kenyan and Ugandan education,
Twenty years ago I was in the US Army. One of the men who went to basic training with me and eventually to the same company I was in was from Uganda. He was probably better educated than some of the Americans I served with, and never had any trouble learning any of the technical aspects of out job. Hell, he spoke three languages. I am not surprised to learn that the education system in Uganda is among the best on the continent.
It's not that Uganda's education system is the best on the continent. It's that Americans and westerners aren't as smart as they think they are and everyone else isn't as dumb as they think they are.
Kenya and uganda have very high levels of education in subsahara Africa
@@eduwino151yeah the ex British colonies are the most educated.
lived and worked in kenya for a while it is the most I would say westernized country in east Africa especially amongst the younger populationin urban areas @@thinkpolhub
The best educated Africans I’ve ever met were from Zimbabwe. They have a pretty inept government but their education is top class and probably the best I’ve seen outside of asia
I am waiting for the day where his video starts with "Hello everyone, it's Peter Zeihan coming to you from Sub-Saharan Africa".
Will never happen. Just like you'll never catch him outside of a white neighborhood in the US
He knows better than to be traveling around there for any significant amount of time.
@@boblately5402 even though he wont admit it, he knows they arent human or safe to go near. Thats why he never goes near them.
@@notallowedtobehonest2539 yep lol
Your practical analysis is valuable because it’s informed, concise, insightful, and sometimes brutally humorous. Consider a series of books by Region. This video is worth expanding to it’s kindle book chock full of wiki-media links.
Love the long length videos! Also interesting analysis on Sub sharan Africa!
Nigeria's population is roughly 225 million, which is rather stunning in context when I realize that that is over 80 million more people than Russia. That's a lot of people with guns, obviously not vulnerable to colonization. I live in Portugal now, and it's fascinating that news from Angola is still closely watched within the country. With Portuguese is spoken there, I've met locals who spent some years living there in the past. My Portuguese is coming along but I would like to follow Angola and Cape Verde more.
Island of Java has more people than Russia.
Nigeria is nearly 3x the size of 85million Germany and bigger than 230m Pakistan
I am afraid the high population growth can become a problem more than a strength that PZ thinks. All need food and somewhere to live, it can easily lead to over-exploitation of the land and followed by an collapse. It may not be as problematic as in north Africa where they simply don't have a chance to feed themself, there is still a lot of good farmland in Nigeria.
The average Nigerian family has 9+ children. Not much else there to do I guess...
@@SpookyFow Have you been there?
@@olivesama Nigeria is a well known vacation destination... Hell no, I haven't been there. Africa is nasty.
While it has its own challenges, Kenya is my favorite country to visit.
English is widely understood, the people are friendly, the climate is good, the rule of law has been established and the Country is committed to educating its children. Kenya is poised for growth.
I will be flying into Nairobi this month, and I look forward to buying a home here in the next 5 years. (Can't move yet since, at age 62, I am still practicing law here in the USA.) Presently, trying to figure out the best niche for investing my time, skills and money. Africa has been, and always will be, its own unique adventure for anyone who makes the journey.
Once you get here let's link up and see what we can do...karibu Kenya.
@@jocularmaverickvinWTF why can’t you do whatever you want to do yourself 😮
@@mwanafalsafa3613 pumua kwanza...
Karibu Kenya...
Karibu Kenya 🇰🇪
Watching from South Africa
It would be interesting to hear Peter compare and contrast Zambia and Zimbabwe. Formerly Northern and Southern Rhodesia.
he'd be wrong like he always is...
No need,it will attract white supremacists
He’s a fake Africa expert. Anyone that’s done serious study on Africa know that he just tries to find language to make Africa into a place devoid of hope
Thank you for this post America series. Im from Australia and am finding it very informative
Africa also plays a strong role in Turkey's future road map, Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) opened its first African office in 2005 and had thousands of projects since then. May not be as prominent as Chinese or European counterparts but they have some locally important projects such as hospitals, agricultural support and clean water. There was a conference with many African leaders in Turkey in 2021. Turkey is also replacing Russian and European firms in defense procurements such as attack planes and helicopters, frigates, drones etc.
India too. Not as high profile as China and others but also more important than many realize.
@@BlackDoveNYCnah India doesn't have the capital, the industrial capacity or the political capital. Turkey and China the big players because they enter as nationstate investors that after broad framework is agreed will then select and even subsidise companies from their private sector that can operate. Unlike the US or France where its multinational companies enter first make their own deals directly with a govt, a local company or even local powerbrokers. These huge companies motivated by capitalism and effectively operating without oversight in an institutionally fragile environment allows for corruption, political and economic factionalism and even the arming of groups to protect assets which just begets strife. Then when things go wrong or the govt decides to cancel/change the agreement with this US or French company the entire weight of the french foreign office and the state dept is unleashed. If the state dept went in first to make a bilateral agreement then oversaw and sanctioned all US companies agreements then held said companies legally liable they would be unmatched. However eberhtime the US state dept wants to make a deal with a nation they somehow decide to start talking about gay marriage and women in politics when the nation just wants to build a processing plant to move away from exporting raw goods or a dam to power their electric grid.
China and Turkey are in prime positions as they have all the historical glamour of US, UK france ect but don't seek the ideological allegiance from the nations they invest in.
Russia is a dud in africa 😂 complete nonsense. They may continue with the work in Benin and Mali but really it's just to apply pressure on france and cause it to drift away from the US and eventually side with those calling for multipolar world order
@@shafsteryellowTurkey is s or a bankrupt country. What does Turkey have to offer Africa when Turkey itself is on life support. Have you seen what happens to the buildings in Turkey when there is an earthquake there?
Turkey won’t go far in Africa… 😅
@@kush4286 they already in Africa
Hi. Love this series on After America. Perhaps you might do this for regional changes (New England, Rust Belt, Midwest, Southwest, etc) within the USA After America.
the republic is dead, as the empire implodes it's going to get wild. likely a civil war.
it's hilarious he's still pretending this is a voluntary withdrawal and not an imploding empire. chalmers johnson saw the end 15 years ago, as did chris hedges and many others. there are far less delusional analysts like prof. jeffrey sachs, prof. john mearsheimer, col. douglas macgregor, col. lawrence wilkerson...
watch - Chalmers Johnson on American Hegemony
watch - The Collapse of the American Empire - Lecture Featuring Chris Hedges
@@blackberrythornsgiven that America isn’t an empire, I’m not sure how credible Chris is
@@mangonut lol, what do you think the 800-1000 military bases around the world are about? the IMF, WORLD BANK, world reserve currency, etc.? the empire killed the republic and now the empire is dying. BRICS is rising.
3 countries that can defend themselves and won't bend the knee to the empire...
"“Russian commentators welcomed this development, viewing it as a positive shift in the global correlation of power and as an appropriate response to America’s sponsorship of NATO’s expansion. Some even sounded gleeful that the Sino-Russian alliance would give America its deserved comeuppance. However, a coalition allying Russia with both China and Iran can develop only if the United States is shortsighted enough to antagonize China and Iran simultaneously.”
― Zbigniew Brzeziński, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives" - 1998
Glad to see Subsaharan Africa get its own video. Subsaharan Africa is just as different from North Africa as France is from China... being on the same landmass means nothing. The Sahara, historically and currently, is harder to cross than an ocean
Historically that's simply not true... proof of that is that we didn't cross the Atlantic until the 15th century (ignoring Vinland). On the other hand there have been trade routes and big cultural exchanges for thousands of years before that through the Sahara. There even were advanced civilizations there, depending on the climate. For example the Garamantes.
This just is not true. People live in that desert now. They lived in it back then.
Pre-communist South Africa was highly industrialised. ANC South Africa? Not so much.
Ever heard of airplanes?
Spent 8 months there (in 70s) West Africa. The sub Sahara was crippled by drought. Poverty was everywhere. Port cities had minimal trade activity. So primitive then
Unironically respect to the African countries that have their shit together like Botswana and Angola. 👍👍
When did Angola start to have its shit together? U definitely talking about another Angola not the one I know north of Namibia.
This cat has his shit together. He has an extensive support network. If you want an overview of world politics, economies, and military forces, he’s the man. His analysis is insightful and realistic. Don’t ignore this guy.
Here is some extra context about Nigeria that I would love to hear some opinions about. Nigeria has a huge population of very educated, wealthy, and politically connected (relatively speaking) first and second generation immigrants in the West (especially in the US & UK). Any overt attempts by the West to pull shenanigans in Nigeria would surely be met by a hell of a lot of pushback in the West at multiple levels. You might be surprised to what degree Nigerians are represented in various industries and popular culture. The political cost to any politician who tried would be horrendous. I imagine that has to be part of any calculus with regard to how the West operates in Nigeria.
This is Zeihan at his best. Very informative. I subscribed to The Economist for 30 years then dropped it, because the subscription was just too expensive. Listening to this video I felt like I was getting a recap of a year's worth of Economist articles on foreign places I know very little about. And it's free! 😅
We are in the middle of the VERY TEDIOUS process of migrating from RSA to the west coast of Namibia... hopefully the future looks brighter this side of the border. Thank you for FINALLY providing some credible information on sub-Saharan Africa!
Easier than migrating to the east coast of Namibia....Lol.
The Future is very dark MBS the third Antichrist will cause WW3😢
what are you doing for work in namibia?
Yeah! Its great to hear Peters Opinions of where SA is Geopolitically. We just can't seem to get over our "internal" problems. Which always makes me want to scream at the top of my lungs! But, like Peter said, it will break because its not sustainable.
I would move there too if the Nam dollar wasn't pegged to the rand.
As a french i think you are selling a future where France and some african nations have close trade deals a bit too confidently. France, since the colonial and neo-colonial periods of the 20th century has put a foot out of Africa but kept a foot in. Many people in africa are understanbly mad about that, and recent history has proven it. Maybe, in several decades, there is a future where France and some of its former colonies have close ties and France is allowed in africa to do buisness. But that will be on the african's terms, not french terms. While most of the post-colonial french practices have died out, i feel until macron (and even macron a little bit) the french state had a very arrogant attitude towards Africa, and that didnt help relations.
While what you're saying is true to some degree, don't read too much into the current political climate. Just look at afghanistan, Taliban is besties with the Russians now even though they were invaded in the past by them and it was infinitely more bloody than the americans.
@@martincerny3294 thats what i meant, in the short term there is no cooperation that takes place in good conditions, but in a few decades, maybe, and with more bilateral relations instead of a domineering one.
@@popkhorne5372
It depends on the needs of France and Europe. If an African country has it and wants to sell it they will.
@@Art-is-craft sure, but on their terms.
@@popkhorne5372
The French will not be going in to conquer. It will be market and culturally based. The conditions of the past are now gone that caused the previous hostilities.
As someone who lives in Africa I can tell you how wrong you are, the thing about Africa is we have a massive growing young population, we have all the natural resources that we need for industrialisation within the continent, inter-Africa Trade will supplement the reduction of global trade because a number of new railways are being built. Africa will also transition to green energy faster than the rest of the world because it is currently a leader in Green energy.
are u south african
@@marcv2648yeah right keep dreaming.
Thank you Zeihan. I was wondering about the new strategy that Morocco put in place regarding the Sahel region. Basically, Morocco gave access to the Atlantic Ocean through its port in Dakhla for shipping and Desalination. Do you think it's possible for these countries to solve some of their problems giving access to Moroccan infrastructure and the Atlantic? Also, do you think, that this strategy is possible to achieve? Thank you
US oil companies have been in Nigeria and Angola for decades. Wtf are you even talking about?
Right you are. I spent quite a bit of time in both places with a US oil company. Our production was all offshore. And things were pretty well until you get it onshore. I could write a book about all the incredible ineptitude I saw. But the sad part was that the same in both places where the government and key power holders had almost everything and everyone else had nothing. That was 30 years ago so hopefully things are better, but not holding my breath.
This is the most informative one yet.
Tough reality of scarce capital setting in with big role for India in Kenya (and SA)? The part on the Angola-Brazil connection was new to me. Thank you. Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and others in that corner with their China connection is in a flux? Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Malawi, Botswana ....as well as Ghana. Endless opportunity to improve governance and well being. Time for lip service is over - it's sink or swim time.
Quality briefing. Thank you Mr. Zeihan. 🎉
Thank you, I have been looking forward to this particular episode. Perhaps Mr. Zeihan could see his way clear to doing a more detailed analysis of South Africa. Like the U.S. it is in an election year. On the technology side, this is a country that built half a dozen nuclear warheads in the 80's. It has been severely mismanaged in the post-apartheid era, due to corruption, incompetence and centralist socialist policies. This has led to the near collapse of initially solid infrastructure and economic under-performance. Maybe provide a bit of detail on a couple of scenarios?
SA's current problems have nothing to do with 'socialist policies'. That is not the problem with the ANC.
Also, the good infrastructure built in the 60s/70s/80s could easily be labelled as a socialist policy
@@seadkolasinac7220 ...and under typical conservative economic policy it should be a crumbling mess by now.
Shows how destructive socialism is and why you need meritocracy.
Get out of South Africa while you can. The country has no future and will continue to slide further into the same state as other African countries.
SA destroyed its nuclear weapons before ANC took power. This is no longer a country that can do that. SA is so strongly in the grips of Cleptotism that even socialism is a pipe dream.
brilliant as always - thank you Peter!
"We all are a little bit racist but the French are a lot more racist" i needed that
But he only thinks European can be racist towards others.
@@binwoods23well Europeans did invent racism, in politics and science so... he has a point
Great rundown. Love these overviews.
In 2022, the fertility rate for Nigeria was 5.1 births per woman, down from 6.1 in 1973, so it has not been declining very fast so far. In sub-Sahara Africa as a whole, it's about 5. In a short time, there are going to be a lot more people to feed.
It’s blew 5 now in sub Saharan Africa. But Without Sub-Saharan Africa the global TFR is now 1.7 and hence below replacement. Old and/or dead people outside SSA will consume less food.
Plus technology advances, the world will export their food to Africa. And That’s assuming Africans r still not be able to feed themselves. Especially since Africa TFR is also declining every year.
Don't worry about African birth rates. Focus on your women not giving you children
@@alimo3011 And who will be doing the farming? Africa has The single largest humanitarian tracedy at hand If nothing changes
@@SonOfMorning Latin America, Europe and Asia (India went below replacement last year).
Thanks!
Hey just curious if you've looked at Namibia? They have a large scale port and flat open land. The rail network is ancient but the road network is rapidly expanding with the trans Kalahari network. Also more politically stable than South africa or Angola.
tiny tiny population though
Namibia is also 90% desert. Basically the same as developing Mauritania, but with blacks instead of Berbers. Also, they speak German or the local dialect, so hope your companies also sprechen sie Deutsch.
Namibia is the best place to live in (considering Sub-Saharan Africa). Our family is doing our best to permanently re-settle here from RSA, it is difficult though as the Government has very strict Residency requirements. You have to start your own business here and employ Namibian citizens. You can't get a work visa for any job that Namibians can perform, so you have to start and be successful at a pretty niche type of business. Small, cultured and civilised population, good infrastructure and resources, secure and safe and clean. And yes, it is jaw-droppingly beautiful, though you cannot establish a ski resort here.
Namibia is not more stable than South Africa. Even the most corrupt countries in the region are fairly stable. The closest to instability would probably be Mozambique and that’s because of the possibility of Muslim extremists coupled with a particularly weak government and military.
@@ShalefistIncorrect. Namibia is not 90% desert. Desert part is only 30% of country. Desert is entire west coast of namibia and south east Kalahari semi arid. People just wrongly assume Namibia is desert coz the prominent feature they see on media is just desert.
Hi Peter. I would love to know you're take on the island nation called Cape Verde. Thanks
I would like to hear your view on Namibia and Botswana in particular. They seem to be high-trust high-growth countries with fairly solid rule-of-law and democratic governance. Seems that despite having a poor geographical hand, they are prospering
For sub-Saharan Africa, Namibia is IMO the best country to live in. That's why I'm relocating here from RSA.
Namibia is usually tied to South Africa, if south Africa goes down, expect it to take Namibia with it, that includes economically and socially
@@antony6799 This may be true to a large extent, I agree. It's just much safer to raise my autistic boy on the Namibian side of the border at this point in time. Autism Spectrum Disorder complicates this much, much more when making the big decisions.
@@antony6799U think so but not. The par of rand to Namibia dollar shud not mislead you. Namibia has high growth prospects and a bright future. It's economy is dependent on SA as far as imports are concerned but that's not free coz they also sustain SA economy by importing goods. Namibia is the next Singapore. I give u 5 yrs only. There is a huge demand for investments in the country currently especially in energy (oil & green Hydrogen). About 50 - 60 billion usd will be spent in Namibia in next 3 yrs. Hyphen is pumping 10 billion usd for Green Hydrogen in Luderitz bay in southern Namibia. Australian FORTESQUE industries too. As we speak there are already 3 pilot Hydrogen plants construction underway at Port of Walvis Bay. Oil Wells appraisals are positive already and continues. There is a mining boom currently as Namibia is mineral rich and 3rd largest uranium producer in world after Canada. Gdp growth is 4% in 2023 but World Economic forum last week projected that Namibia will have 7% growth this year and 7.7 % in 2025. The future is bright for Namibia. It will shoot up like a meteorite in people's eyes.
@@antony6799Yes, Namibia's tiny economy is dependent on South Africa. Botswana also is, to an extent. But, Botswana has built up immense foreign reserves, its economy has done better for many years, it has no apartheid hangover (unlike both Namibia and SA), and in my opinion has a stellar future, if it can sort out its unemployment problem, and diversify the economy a bit.
Thank you, that was great. Will be interesting to see it all develop.
It is not great. You need to talk to an African economist. He just one of the people who talks about Sub-Saharan Africa with a condescending tone, without realizing that things have changed and Africa is on the ascendency
Thank you for this analysis, Peter. I am half-African (my father is from Senegal). Are you able also to provide analysis on the Caribbean?
no hope
@@elijahmhayden DR, Jamaica, & Trinidad are advancing...HDI is pretty high in the ABCs, St Maarten/Martin and Martinique...
I like how you're laid back when discussing the topic. Truly enjoyed every bit of it. And YES, One-size fits all doesn't work in Africa as much as it doesn't work anywhere else!
I am surprised Rwanda was not mentioned? They seem to have tremendous stability and high growth. I know they are land locked but they seem to be a power in the region.
They're good at bullying DRC for minerals, that's why they are a prosperous nation.
Yes, they seem to be an outlier.
Presumably if 45 African countries have been instantly dismissed because they don't have access to the coastal sweet spots, a country that doesn't even have access to the coastal cliffs is probably not going to make the cut.
Rwanda is simply too small , although I can see it becoming semi developed something like Botswana level development, good but not a powerhouse
Look deeper ....
One of the best summarized geopolitics 101 on Sub Saharan Africa..... I believe Kenya uganda, rwanda belt will be huge going forward in shaping the east african economies.
Lots of townships building new houses with plumbing, but the faster the houses are built, the faster people from the rural area come to set up shacks. There's a huge urbanization flow.
As a South African, I would love to hear a detailed broken down of the situation here.
Congratulations on the good news 😊
Long story short. Racism of black government will lead to a really bad relations with western world, on top of that BRICS will help RSA fall economically since R and C are against globalism under anglo sphere, which was the developing factor of south africa on the world stage. It's sad to see africa side with the red block, but it's far from surprising.
But hey, i'm no expert and it's just a loose observation. But I'm pretty sure it's the case.
why would you want this snake oil salesman's opinion?
Lol I'm overly optimistic. It's going to get worse before it gets any better here.
@JG-MV that's why he asked for another video, you fool
Hi Peter Zeihan, everybody here. Thanks for your insights.
If the Chinese can build railways in the Himalayas they can build them in Africa.
The chinese can function past a 2nd grade capacity
@@notallowedtobehonest2539 Not that you'd know anything about that.
@@olivesama what makes you say that, random person from the internet?
@@notallowedtobehonest2539 Hello, fellow random person on the Internet. You seem to believe that you're "not allowed to be honest". Rest assured, you can be as honest as you wish with me. So rather than dabble in indirect statements and implicit attitudes, why not come out and say what you really mean. And I'll be happy to tell you exactly what I think of your conclusions and your cognitive ability.
actually they did that in 1970's and the railway is still working today 50's years after
Thanks
Love this series! Maybe I missed it, but I’d love to hear the rationale behind the baseline assumption that America is going to pull back from keeping sea lanes open. There must be some combination of data and assumption underpinning that. As recent events in Yemen illustrate, we’re not there yet.
I suspect he would say that the US is not leaning into the task of keeping the Red Sea safe as hard as it would have 30 or 40 years ago. His argument - and I don't think he's the only one who has put it forward - is that the US took over guarding the sea lanes as part of the Cold War. Countries that sided with the US would benefit from free international trade that it enabled. Once the Cold War ended, the value of that system was no longer obvious to many Americans, and so the US is pulling back from those commitments and will continue to do so. As an American who grew up during the Cold War, I see his point: Except for the "War on Terror" Americans just aren't as interested in foreign affairs as they used to be, and so we've been pulling back our armed forces from Europe and the Middle East.
We have a presidential election coming up soon in the US, if you haven't heard.
Fantastic review
Thanks for the good news, from South Africa.
As for South Africa, don't forget about the natural gas finds that are looking positive. Potentially the 8th largest natural gas deposits in the world. The wells that they have drilled last year have come out quite positive. The greenies are all over trying to prevent fracking, but it will happen. And secondly, there is potentially off shore oil on the west coast. Namibia came out with positive results, so now total is going to start drilling in South Africa to see if they find more of the same
We also have the richest deposit of Helium in the world! IIRC found a few years ago.
Corruption will win unfortunately.
IIRC: Brullpadda is that oil/gas reserve found off the eastern cape of South Africa.
However the ANC led govt want a free carry on any company extracting said iol/gas. And that carry is significant. No wonder no one is jumping at the chance to extract it.
The Chinese might be our new overlords 😢
@@Onelove-Oneheart-h4c meh, does it matter? The Americans were out overlords, now it's gonna be the Chinese. No difference
Now that you mention Brazil. You need to do that country next on your series. Great stuff.
Having worked in the Sahel region of African, it breaks my heart to see the instability that has happened in the past 4 years. The population in this area deserves better.
Yes if west stop looting
@decoloniz_afro the governments of Africa are just as complicit in the looting. Corruption is a political problem.
@Feralzen No, European corporations, mining sectors and EU royal families still have Africa in a chokehold. It's called neo-colonialism.
@@Feralzentrue local politicians are corrupt, but why do you think there is instability?
Can confirm: Live in SA and my folks' home is 15 min from the beach with a ~1200ft climb above sea level.
But we do have good rail infrastructure to the coast. Electrified rail infrastructure, not just normal rail infrastructure. Only problem is that the current government is misusing it and not protecting it from Vandals.
In regards to south africa, I have never heard of this free housing deal. What's the source on this?
He is making it up
@@citylinkproject9901no he isn't. RDPs are free housing, social grants and so called NSFAS or Free education
Really Really appreciate this content. 🎉
Djibouti also has a large port linked by rail into the agricultural heartland of Ethiopia
Ethiopia needs to be balkanised and Somalia centralised then the horn would flourish.
@@shafsteryellow I worked in both Somalia and Djibouti in the late 80s. Pretty rough neighborhood.
@@thomascrew8268 yep look at Libya, Iraq and Syria. Without centralised power you'll have anarchy
I have been waiting for this one.. Good one.
I swear someone one day is going to find a SD card of Peter talking about geopolitical stuffs in the stomach of a bear 🐻 after he's mysteriously disappeared in the woods.
speaking of... at 11:16, i reckon that's a creature in the woods behind him, but the quality isn't good enough to be sure
Awesome . I enjoy your insights quite a bit and It's great to see some analysis on Africa. Am wondering with the US shifting it's supply chains from China do you think in this case Kenya Uganda would be viable to take on some of the manufacturing to supply the American market?
This is the one that I've been waiting for, I really think that we really need a post American Agriculture series as well. As for the Norwegians.....yup its straight on, I live here and yup, as soon as you mention oil all their principles go out the window :)
CO2 has reached its saturation point and any increase will not have any notable effect on temperature. Their oil is vital to the well being of billions.
@@johnl5316 Saturation Point? You're incorrect in so many ways, I don't even know where to start...
@@johnl5316 What saturation point?
@@downstream0114 It's something oil propagandists talk about to stop people trying to mess with all their beautiful oil.
@@tsubadaikhan6332mans just says he wrong and doesn’t even get into anything. Easy to say someone’s wrong. Hard part is explaining
Your data is incredibly flawed. Not even close to twi thirds live in townships in SA. Number closer to 35%.
Makes me wonder about everything else you say.
This guy is just a modern day astrologer
Making educated guesses seem like "predictions"
There is so much wrong in this video that i dont want to waste my time
Just google his claims and you will know
If you're uneducated you probably think you could do better. But you would just prove you are a greater fool🎉🎉🎉
I learned a lot. Thank you.
Flawed analysis 😎, the biggest problem of Africa beyond tribalism, and corruption was always the IMF and WB , otherwise geography can be overcomed by human ingenuity, again the western world has never wanted to truly industrize sub Saharan africa because they did in north africa, so if black Africa want industrisation they should work closely with eastern countries and even more with the brics and their financial institutions, in this post western era ; because they never got anything from the west.
Now why did he fail to mention that, loans to African countries are disbursed at very high interest rates, basically making the African countries client states. but it is going to change
@@citylinkproject9901 yeah, exactly.
@@citylinkproject9901 yeah, exactly.
@@citylinkproject9901 yeah, exactly.
Goldman Sachs predicts Nigeria will have the 4th largest economy in the world by 2080, I was really hoping Peter Zeihan would speak on this more.
It’s a dream, you know it will never er happen right? 😮
@@africanayasmin6210 I don't know who you are but I think I will take the opinion of the hard working researchers at Goldman Sachs over yours. While Zeihan predicts the whole world will collapse before 2080 he also named Nigeria as one of a few countries that will be food self sufficient as 1 to 2 billion people around the world die of hunger. He says Europe will battle it out with an imperialist Nigeria for regional hegemony. Either in Zeihan's global collapse scenario or Goldman Sachs business-as-usual scenario Nigeria still emerges as a global super power.
Sounds like a pipe dream with all the brain drain and corruption
Does anyone here at all read history? Do you know anything about Africa before colonialism? It’s the same geography and Africans we’re doing well for themselves before Slave trade and colonialism. Europeans came to Africa to learn Math, Science and Philosophy.It’s not right to draw the starting line after destruction to Africa only to feel good about yourselves.
Yes please more on South Africa please... I know its bad but projections are nice as this is where I live!
Yes, living in South Africa is definitly a thing! All the potential to be great, but absolutely stuck in terms of its leadership and population... so sad...
Best of luck, man!
You have to look at democracies rather than the crowd you’re currently supporting. I mean Russia, come on. Your government already going down the corruption/oligarch route. Taking Israel to the icj is a big mistake, especially when you have done nothing about Syria, Yemen or Sudan.
Thanks man! God carries us through it all. @@zanetpieterse7933
@@zanetpieterse7933 We’re generally good people, although the leadership is disappointing.
@@musa_khalilno you are not good people
Not a bad assessment of Kenya and Uganda. Kenya especially has made strides without relying on minerals or oil. A recent survey showed that the country has a vast mineral wealth (over 900 minerals), including copper, graphite, manganese, iron ore, coltan, base metals, nickel chromite, lead, zinc, rare earth elements, uranium, and thorium. The country could be poised for serious growth if the mining sector can develop in a corruption-free environment.
The main problem with sub-saharan Africa is not infrastructure but a fundamental lack of respect for private property. That is the reason why it was so easy for the Soviets to fire them up for communism, and why it is very hard to the kind of economics typical for the west. The interesting question is: why should they emulate the west?
I was just talking about this an hour ago.. When I was watching the Dangote refinery start its production of diesel and aviation fuel...😂
This is not the 60's my friend, most African countries have embraced capitalism.
' That is the reason why tit was so easy for the Soviets to fire them up for communism' -- love the generalisations with little regard to factual details. Barely 10 countries during the Cold War were Soviet allies, and within them, hardly any attempted 'communism'
Yeah I am sure they supported the Soviet because of lack of respect of private property and it has nothing to do at all with colonialism.
@@ibrahimbello5546 completely and utterly wrong.
Most African leaders were influenced by civil rights leaders like Malcom X and W.E.B Dubois who learnt about marxist teachings. Then they brought marxist ideology to Africa in the form of communism.
Don't talk if your completely clueless.
Well this is spot on essentially.
Haven't seen you discuss Ethiopia recently. Pretty hot with the recent Civil War, GERD and relations with Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia (although the last one is any day ending in y).
Appreciate the deeper dive
I noticed something throughout the whole video: the word "partnership" was used very loosely when referring to the relationships some of the African countries will have with European countries seeking greener pastures 🤑
Like millions of Africans are doing in Europe at the moment?
Thanks for providing insights into a region of the world that us westerners know little about.
I have been living off and on in Sub-Saharan Africa for over 30 years. I wrote my Master's Thesis on issues regarding this region. I appreciate your breakdown of everything evolving. You were given a great Gift from God on explaining things. However, I think what we all need to come to grips with right now is that Globalization is Dying. It will probably be Dead within the next 5 years. .....when Globalization dies, which is now in play, EVERYTHING comes down to 3 things: 1. Where are you located? 2. What do you have in relationship to resources? 3. What can you make? Africa is no different, other than what you stated. ....they will be better off than most, since the average African does not need Globalization.
Better off than most? That is NOT the tone of this video at all. It seems like a few countries may do well, even tho that “doing well” would be relative to extreme poverty, and then other countries will devolve even more
Do you think African countries will be better off because their population is growing instead of shrinking like the West and Asia?
Can I get the thesis please. Interested in geopolitics
@@shanevictor9885 James Ryan An Alliance Built Upon Necessity: AQIIM Boko Haram And The African Arch Of Instability
Finally we hear Peter addressing Africa, on which he's been relatively silent so far in his materials.
Excellent. I am sitting in sub-Saharan Africa and I have been thinking about this lately. There are the remnants of a colonial railway where I am. Geography is not the problem.
Which country?
Very interesting! I am Kenyan and optimistic about Africa despite the constant negative news about wars, civil strife and natural disasters.
Your president is a US puppet and a Pro-west vassal
I can't fault your reasoning makes lots of sense to me. South Africa worries me, economic growth for the last 2 decades has been poor. I know very little about Senegal and i'm intrigued. I see the French being big players even in Anglophone Africa. Angola is new and just getting stronger, quickly. I agree on Nigeria, that will only become an even larger behemoth. Putting Kenya & Uganda into one pot is 💯 on point. Emergence of industry out here will surprise many. I suppose it is a confluence of Eastern and Western capital in Africa & that is the secret sauce as it were .....
No ,economic growth stagnated after 2013
There is more connectivity between Brazil and Angola than you mentioned. You should mention how close in terms of distance between Angola and Brazil is.
The best breakdown of the complexities of Africa that's been attempted in forever.
Obviously you have never listened to Thomas Sowell
You're right @@allanhutton1123
@@allanhutton1123 Sowell is a tad overrated.
@@olivesama what compared to Peter.
@@allanhutton1123 Sowell is far less rigorous when it comes to using empirical evidence to draw conclusions based on cause and effect. He has got too much of his own axe to grind, so to speak.
Peter when are you going to talk about Haiti ? I would to have your thoughts on Haiti .
5:45 Peter not understanding France, africa or the relationship between the two. Basically nothing said about Senegal is correct.
8:09 I broadly agree with what Peter had to say about Nigeria
Overall peters biggest flaw in relation to Africa is not understanding how African countries interact with one another.
True
Who are you in any related field of study? What are your credentials?
Yes! Finally, you talk about us in Africa. I know there will be many problems here but it is nice to see your expert opinion on our countries (Nigeria, in my case) You absolutely nailed it on the point of lack of unity in the past but the things like socioeconomic development, infrastructure, and even holdovers from British colonialism like a national language and political system, this is what has led to more unity. It is absolutely true that what we are looking to do is establish more diplomatic and economic ties to more foreign partners, especially the west. Yes, we have deals with China and India but we are more allied with the west than most would expect.
Yes, Peter did cover west Africa in conjunction with the UK and Nigeria. So Peter is predicting an "Energy Crisis". This will happen when Iran attack Saudi Arabia to take over their northern oil fields. When that happens inflation within the UK will skyrocket and you will be hit inflation as well. The UK will go back to Nigeria and you will create partnership. The UK will give you special trading access to their rich markets and they will subsidize your Nigerian farmers. In exchange you given access to oil off shore of Nigeria. Now the UK turn these oil platforms in fortress so that African militias and pirates cannot extort them. British frigate and destroyer class warships will patrol off the cost of west Africa to keep pirates and privateers to a minimum and protect Nigerian shipment of oil more importantly food which other African nations will tried to pirate.
How does Nigeria cope with its big population growth? Is education and the energy infrastructure improving?
@@atheistbushman Great question, friend. Based on my own knowledge and experiences, education is improving but, sadly, economic opportunities have not kept pace as well. The issue of brain drain is still present here. As for energy infrastructure, our power grid is severely mismanaged, even after a decade of largely privatizing a good chunk of our electricity generating sector. Much of our current issues stem from political ineptitude and economic mismanagement, especially since we removed our previous ruling government (PDP) that was more economically right-leaning and federalist, in favour of our current party (APC) that are left-leaning and prone to excessive deficit spending and their rolling back of many policies the previous government did to improve our country. But some recent policy changes are likely to lead to improvements. A big one was the removal of a longstanding fuel subsidy that was a huge drain on our government budget but it came way too late and led to increased inflation and stalling of many business.
@@orboakin8074 I appreciate you response/insights.
How are the ethnic relations in Nigeria? Do the Hausa-Fulani still dominate the military and is the Biafran War with the Igbo long forgotten?
@@atheistbushmanwell Currently we have a yoruba president from the south so the fulanis have less political power currently , although there are still some clashes between fulanis and other ethnic groups , as for igbos and Biafra, there are still some agitation but it is mostly as a reaction to fulani/hausa dominance if nigeria has an igbos president anytime soon they will probably calm down that's what they really want.
Great video, concise primer on African geopolitics.
I was curious how Peter was going to tackle Sub-Saharan Africa. Nice overview and it would be great to get a longer, multi-chapter version regarding other countries in the area, their mineral/oil/gas backgrounds, etc. Colonization and then decolonization presented so many challenges based on the lines drawn on maps by the Europeans. Religions, languages and ethnicities also play a huge role.
I second this!
@jasonyork9966 Not really lol, Russia is diverse with their groups of people and its no problem. Europe just struggles with integration
@@jasonyork9966 Europe's existential threat is from Europe itself. War has returned to the continent with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Any minute now NATO could be at war with Russia and a nuclear holocaust would wipe out Europe.
Those lines drawn on maps by Europeans? I notice that Africans haven't rushed to change them. If Europeans never colonized Africa, these states wouldn't exist - tribal entities would rule postage stamp countries. Until one tribe slaughtered others and took their land. You might say colonized them. 😁
You just described early Europe to the t. Remember, early Europe was lighting women at the stake for knowing how to count to 4, not to mention if she knows how to spell a simple word such as cat. 😂t@@MarkRoy-e2b
Love this series!
Hi, Peter.
Follow your channel regularly. Excellent.
In this particular video, it seems you missed a country - Ethipoia.
Or are you saving that for a video on the Horn?
Stay safe!
Cheers!
Wow Peter, most interesting. As a third generation South African from German-Scottish ancestry that has recently relocated to Europe, I was waiting in anticipation for this one. But I'm afraid your analysis of South Africa post Apartheid is completely off the mark. The poverty and informal settlements to which you reference is not a product of Apartheid, but rather the result of a rapidly growing population, massive immigration influx from other African countries, and relentless corruption and mismanagement by the current ruling party since 1994. You also failed to mention the dire energy electricity collapse which has shut down thousands of SMEs further leading to massive unemployment and rampant crime.
He's pretty right about it. As a black South African. I think he's right about that aspect.
My familiy moved from one of the bantu stans during apartheid and they were lucky enough to buy houses. Other families ended up living in shacks.
Don’t move back to South Africa ever
Can you do a video about all the mines and natural resource stuff in Africa that China claims dominion over and how that will play into 1.) Their decline and 2.) All of that relative to the rest of the world
And how China plans on transporting it to ports
I guess if the Africans seize Chinese assets in Africa the Chinese will then find out just how capable their navy really is. I know if I was president of the US I wouldn't waste one US soldier's life to enforce Chinese "property rights".
@@richardthomas5362 Chinese military is a paper tiger ,when the Chinese military was doing peace keeping in South Sudan they had their backside slapped ,the Chinese military are not battle hardened.
@@fjtpersian6566 I would imagine that Indian soldiers in the Himalayas would agree with you.
@@richardthomas5362 the Chinese soldiers got beat .