The USA is Turning Its Back on the World. What Does This Mean for Poland? - Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 13 июл 2024
- Peter Zeihan, the author of important geopolitical books, including the latest one "The End of the World is Just the Beginning," published in Poland by Zysk i S-ka, argues that the United States will soon stop maintaining the global trade system. This will mean that food, energy, and all other goods will become hard to access. Paradoxically, this creates certain opportunities for Poland.
Wersja polska dostępna tu: • Peter Zeihan - USA odw...
Your time has come to shine Poland, all your dreams are on their way. Best regards, from the USA
Good luck to Poland from U.K.
Yall can come over and steal our jobs now😂
@@2909dk lmao
it would be nice to see poland come into its own
Agreed. As an American with Polish ancestry, I would say The UK and Poland are our most important allies at this point.
@@Nick-bh5bk Poland is weak. This country simply does not work. Law, judiciary, offices, politics it's a parody. To bad, cause most of the Polish people are hard working and want to develop, but the system is hilarious - it does more harm then benefits.
They are moving up the value added scale and when it comes to defense/military matter, they stand ten toes down on business. I wish the rest of Europe got on their level
Absolutely! thank you :) however, we're positioned between germany and russia. This makes it extremly hard, especially now - russians/bielaussians and germans push illegals through our borders.
Every one that says he’s lying definitely doesn’t know anything about geopolitics, most people on RUclips are all echo chambers for propaganda… and if you know about geopolitics you know he’s ABSOLUTELY RIGHT and his analysis is on point
So how do you know if you or him are also not in a echo chamber ?
@@ravishingravi because he’s not on RUclips claiming some breaking news or absurd nonsense he giving an informed educated analysis with historical facts … unlike some of the Indian podcast talking about India is the worlds new superpower , and the other Indian podcast echo the same thing hoping people buy it but WE KNOW
@@ravishingraviBecause he qualifies everything with "if nothing changes". These are trends, his predictions.can be taken with a grain of salt but the trends are solid and the demographic bubbles are facts.
To anyone that thinks he is joking, I have a copies of 'coming Caesars' and 'American empire' by Riencourt I'm willing to sell to you. Written over 50 years ago.
I guaran-fucking-tee you, we are most certainly not joking.
Short summary, reads like Zeihan's books without the data. And as far as I'm aware he's never read them.
One big problems that Russia, Iran, and China is that they lack innovation and creativity. Have ever notice these countries have no "Pop Stars". Nothing. They don't produce or have anyone like that. In China all their "Pop Songs" are stolen from "Taiwan" it's pathetic.
Aussie here (in Poland this month coincidentally), wishing the very best for Poland. I love the Polish way of doing things, the humour, and the kindness.
Don't forget Polish mayonnaise
Legal immigration is fine. No uncontrolled borders.
Exit the US. Throw your passport away and try to re-enter the US to see how “uncontrolled borders “ it is.
Dziękuje za materiał w oryginalne.
Great discussion. The sentiment here in the United States is, indeed, very much against the kind of open-ended security and aid packages this country engaged in since 1942. The opinions of the people are very different from the views of many in our current administration regarding aid and security to other countries. I am not saying it is good or bad. It's just not the same country that it was for most of the past 80 years in regards to views on foreign policy.
I want our government to start taking care of us.
According to him, there will be 3 heavy weight champions in Europe in this new era.
Poland, France, Turkey.
He has been saying it for a long time, now certain patterns are emerging, he was right.
Well yes and no. Poland is depopulating as well so it need to make an alliance of sorts. Peter Zeihan says it with Sweden the forgotten European power.
@@marctemura2017 Sure, but I think its not a prerequisite, Sweden and Poland already do enjoy a great relationship. Its not likely that friendship will collapse suddenly.
They will probably get closer and closer as Peter predicted more than a decade ago.
From this same perspective, his bullish Mexican prediction also would not possible without good US partnership investment and trade. But he was right all along.
When Mexico was not even considered to be an industrialized developed country, I attended one of Peter's talks. I remember some of my friends laughing when Zeihan said Mexico will surpass China as US's top trading partner, that happened last year...
So yes, Peter thinks every such country that will rise and shine will have partners and friends. Sweden is a great partner for Poland. And vica versa.
In Turkey's case, these partners will be Bulgaria and Romania on the Balkans. Which also seems to be a correct prediction. These countries are trading more and getting closer strategically.
And Turkey is becoming more aggresive in terms of what it wants to achieve, and already has invaded parts of Iraq and Syria, even has military footprints in Caucasses and after the war basically became the #1 Blacksea naval power
@@marctemura2017 Poland is depopulating in a light speed! Every educated person is going out of country or is set in some kind offices with grants (money printing) and cause of that industry is simply falling apart. Politics and offices are to stupid to do anything cause they are simply clans without any substantive independent voices of reason. This is a disaster - the only ones that have children are poor 500+ (another money printing government program - grant) ppl and they cannot run them selfs. This country simply does not work. Law, judiciary, offices, politics it's a parody. To bad, cause most of the Polish people are hard working and want to develop, but the system is hilarious - it does more harm then benefits.
he seem to keep forgetting all effects of climate change like instanbul running out of fresh water right now, droughts and wildfires in france and depopulation and putins plans to attac poland.... be careful he seem to have an agenda on its own.
Sad for history if Poland loses its opportunity.
Hope things can improve over time for them.
Poland has had our backs many times. When we call them, they are there. That is a basis for an alliance that will be as strong as any we have even without.the Japanese model being described as a buy in. Poland has already bought in.
Japan and Poland would be two counties I would visit. They will love Americans for the next 100 years.
We have called on them since the revolutionary war. General Pulaski came over and helped us, along with an 18-year-old general, Lafayette.
I don’t always agree with Peter, but his data is on point and he always lets you know where it comes from. This allows you to go do your own research and figure out your own opinion.
Reportedly it's important to know about the folks residing in north east of Poland. Seems the Vikings from Sweden found it was a short row to get over to Poland and its river system, America welcomes the STEM educated Viking survivors to America's re- industrialization boom economy
One thing I am sure of is that Poland would be as brave as the Ukrainians are being at the moment.
Somehow i get the feeling Peter is telling each of his audiences the bestcase they want to hear about their future und underestimating the possibilities of their opponents
Zeihan tends to tell audiences what assets/comparative advantages they have and how to exploit those advantages relative to their neighbors.
super rozmowa - more more more - zróbcie rozmowę z Kotkinem!
Stephen Kotkin is a great choice.
I'm so glad I can witness my country in such a good geopolitical position, but please God don't let us fall this time 😖 Everything is going suspiciously too well 😣
Yay Poland!
Thanks for the video.
The data points Zeihan presents are mostly accurate, his conclusions … are merely opinion based on the data points and his own predisposition. You can come to your own conclusions
That’s true for any field of knowledge. That being said, if you believe Peter Z is wrong, which is fine by me, what is your own interpretation of where things are going?
Whether Peter Zeihan is right or wrong is moot. His gift to the world is that he explains things, world history, geo-politics etc in a way that ordinary people can understand, he does it like no other person I have ever seen, and I have been a student of history/politics. Then, from that point of understanding, you can investigate ideas further. You may even come to a different conclusion, you may even disagree with Peter.
He predicted Russian invasion of Ukraine 7 years before it happened and predicted the year that would have to happen by.
His "opinions" as you call them, are sought out and in demand by some of the most highly placed and influential people in the world. These people are not known for, nor predisposed to, seek out the analysis of dummies.
When your business is analysis and information, you're not going to be in business very long if what you tell people is crap. That'll get around pretty quickly.
No one is right 100% of the time or hits the bullseye every time but Peter get a helluva lot more right than he does wrong and even most of the stuff he gets wrong is not far wrong. He may not always hit the bullseye but he always hits the target.
@@Ozgrade3 I’m surprised that you believe that PZ doesn’t have to be right, at least most of the time, with his analysis and ensuing predictions. So, here’s my question to you: “What is the value of an interesting and insightful analysis if in the end the conclusions that you come up with are wrong?” Doesn’t that mean that your analysis, as insightful as it could have been, was wrong? If we start following PZ in spite his conclusions/forecast being mainly wrong, assuming it were the case, isn’t that the beginning of a cult?
Interesting , Thank You
Nice to see a Peter Zeihan video that isn’t someone monetizing someone else’s content.
Greetings from Poland ❤🇵🇱
Thank You ❤
That was great, thank you.
Poland needs a higher birthrate!
AI with robotics is going to impact the accuracy of his analysis. It’s going to massively decrease the need for population. The world will age, lifespans will increase, production costs will plummet, militaries will be primarily machines. Smaller yet powerful states will have tremendous strength.
For centuries, over 90% of the population had to work directly and indirectly on farms. Advances in farm equipment slashed the required work force to a tiny percent.
Likewise, AI with robotics will slash the current workforce jobs to a tiny percent.
That will drastically impact the world in ways that are difficult to predict.
Peter Zeihan says "...All the silicon in All the chips comes from North (frikin..) Carolina ". This does not seem to be supported by Google or Wiki. Silicon comes from Silica (sand).
I didn’t google it. But North Carolina does have lots of sand. On the other hand, as far as I know, they don’t have extra sand. The beaches are economically productive as they are. And every few years they have to go deep into the ocean and bring sand from the deep to “re-nourish” the beaches. So even though NC has lots of sand, I can’t imagine that using it to make silica would be more profitable than leaving it along the shore.
The specific silica sand used in semiconductor manufacturing almost entirely comes from a mining site in North Carolina called Spruce Pine because of its high purity.
Spot on
It's time for the Europeans to take care of their own problems.
If other countries wanted the old American way, then they should have defended the old American way. My great grandmother was married at thirteen to a man fifteen years her senior. My great grandparents thought very differently from modern Americans.
Use it or lose it.
Poland is definitely the country to watch. If they can stabilize their demographics, they are going to be one of the 4 major powers on the continent (France, Sweden and Turkey being the others). Will be interesting to see how they navigate the next decade
No one can stabilize their demographics. There's far richer countries that failed, there's no indication Poland is any different.
Also, Turkey? Failing as we speak.
Sweden - ~ 8 mln peoples? Czech have more or Romania.
Peter is alway entertaining yet I can show you at least 3 true Western 'Russia' Experts / Analyst of decades of experience, speak Russian which don't agree with Peter's claim that Russian will invade Poland after Ukraine. People who speak Russian, analyze Russia for a living and have many Russian contacts over decades just don't agree with this claim. Just saying Peter is not a Russia expert of any caliber as much as I enjoy his talks. Most importantly, unlike the Ukraine, Poland has protection of NATO in most conditions and everyone agrees that Russia has no chance of defeating a unified NATO but most importantly it would lead to a nuclear war ....perhaps.
Poeinny być napisy w języku polskim dla większej oglądalności...
Wersja z polskim tłumaczeniem jest tu: ruclips.net/video/SZZfynVNd9w/видео.html
Automatyczny tłumacz daje radę, Peter ma dobry akcent a Eugeniusz również
One gap in the reasoning with regards to the textile example he gave. When it comes to China, automation won't work but it'll definitely work for USA. I know China has lot of other issues as well but this particular line of reasoning does not help, I guess.
Have you notice that Russia, China, and Iran are all dictatorships and there is almost nothing do there. China and Russia has no public parks or public libraries. Iran has that but that was from Shah of Iran that's pre 1979, not from the Mullah that took over the country. Also, these countries have no "Pop Stars" they don't exist. These tyrants get so jealous of their popularity they have them all arrested. So all of China's Pop songs are from Taiwan it's pathetic.
Also, went to see a local high school football game. That doesn't exist in Iran, Russia, or China. There are no sporting events or they are very few. My friend just participated in a 24 hour mountain bike race, it was a blast. But never see anything like that in Iran they great mountains for mountain bikes.
You won't see people doing this in Russia, China, or Iran. Here is the RUclips video:
2021 Most INSANE POV LINES! GoPro Best Of | Kilian Bron
Why is it a US responsibility? Shouldn’t the world contribute to their security? Or at least pay the US military budget for their security?
Well it’s the Us responsibility because that was the deal. The Us controls tnentrade and it provides safety in return. A lot of countries got rid of nukes because the USA wanted to. A lot of those countries went to war when Us was attacked.
The US took on that responsibility because that was the price America was willing to pay in order to bribe up an alliance against the Soviet Union.
We’ll make you rich, but you’ll be on our side if the Soviets attack.
@@hyperman9506 It was the US responsibility during globalization. We got blamed for many conflicts because of being the global policeman and never got paid for it. We the taxpayers footed the bills for being hated around the world. In the meantime, evil countries like China took advantage of the situation.
Zeihan's point is that the U.S. does not need the rest of the world as much as those other countries need the U.S., and the public's views on foreign policy have turned decisively against foreign aid and security interventions in a way that hasn't happened in eighty years. Hence, the U.S. wants to withdraw to its own sphere where it is prosperous. It can and it wants to. So it will.@@hyperman9506
Weapon purchases are not so simple. The US has a corrupt manufacturing industry - the price of weapon production has been inflated because in the US they are also an investment product.... The industry is controlled by ex-military officers who now serve as Board member executives they sell these weapons to the US GOVT departments controlled by military officers who will replace those board members as they retire to the golf course. The executive class of NATO countries are aware of this so many are reluctant to purchase US weapons because they know the US is ripping them off.... but when they try & purchase cheaper weapons the US points to the NATO contract & says ´ýou can´t, they have to be integrated with our NATO weapon systems´´...
I believe that Earth has reached population saturation. Scientists told us 'on paper ' that we could feed the planet. People don't want to live this crowded. Humans need to learn how to live in peace.
...and it should.
But it can't.
Didn't Poland take in a few million refugees?
Need to just work on our own ? And just hope we can stay out of it good luck right
*SECRET: FREEMARKET ECONOMIES WORK IN FREE SOCIETIES.*
...its really that simple. We Americans should look to ourselves, fix our governmental over reach, fix our problems, and use our own resources... and boycott China. ✌️
I agree! ❤
I wish these moderators would CHECK THE AUDIO before going live.
This is recorded, what are you referring to?
If poland could get its demographics back to normal itd essily be the most dominant power in europe
May you please do a study on American inner city's.
What would a president along the lines of Reagan or Paul Ryan do as President in January 2025? Is Nikki Haley in that mold?
Fucking awesome!!!
Gość wiecznie przystosowuje swoje tezy geopolityczne do tego co już się dzieje a potem twierdzi że coś przewidział...
Co do Polski to nie jestem optymistyczny, ledwo dwa lata minęły od inwazji i prawie rok od wyborów a Polska zbrojeniówka jak stała w miejscu, tak stoi, nawet zaczyna zwalniać ludzi, choć miała produkować już Koreańskie platformy, jest pomijana we wszystkich zamówieniach odpowiedników w Europie, dotacjach z EU, wspólnych zakupach, od Bałtów po Węgry już się zadomowił Rheinmetal i inne zachodnie firmy, totalnie dominując rynki na naszym podwórku, ale cóż się dziwić jak zamiast pirata, kupujemy Karle Gustafy, zamiast Kraba, K9, zamiast warana, Koreańskie wozy itd...
Co z Gospodarka? powoli hamuje i się zwija ze względu na brak spełnienia obietnic, likwidacje tarcz osłonowych - drogą energie i sztucznie zwiększane pensje, przez co mieliśmy w ostatnich miesiącach nawałnice masowych zwolnień w całym kraju i eksodus niektórych większych firm.
Miotła Tuska razem z poprzednimi zarządami spółek państwowych rozniosła ich przychody, gdzie 19 spółek zarobiło 8 miliardów mniej niż rok temu a sam Orlen zapikował w dół i ropierdolił sobie ryj o podłogę, idąc w 70% spadek przychodów...
Co z inwestycjami? Tusk skutecznie zajechał albo opóźnił część ważnych inwestycji jak tory szerokopasmowe i port zbożowy, tymczasem PKP Cargo wysyła ludzi na przymusowe wakacje a Ukraińska oligarchia zakłada w Polsce spółki transportowe na Kolei, dokonują wrogich przejęć, wykupując konkurencyjne firmy, zamykając je i wypierdalając ludzi na bruk.
Tak samo z żeglugą śródlądową, lepsze są kolejne parki narodowe, choć w Niemczech (u konkurencji się da)... Fabryka Intela dalej czeka na działkę pod budowę...
CPK był tak namiętnie prowadzony do zajechania, że przez te wszystkie przepychanki i po buncie społecznym, opóźnienia są już takie, że wyprzedzają nas Austriacy i Węgrzy w tym temacie budując swoje megaporty, które zaczną przejmować regionalny rynek zanim powstanie CPK.
To samo z Atomem, o ile w ogóle coś w końcu ruszy to będą gigantyczne opóźnienia, niedługo trzeba będzie kupować od Ukraińców albo Węgrów, bo oni stawiają od tego roku kolejne reaktory zamiast grzebać się jak prawiczki przy biustonoszu.
Ko rozpierdoli ten cały dobrobyt i zachamuje gospodarkę, tak samo jak poprzednio. Potem spierdoli do EU, tak jak poprzednio...
"tory szerokopasmowe" - po prawdzie nie ma takiego zwierzęcia, ale są szerokie tory (1524mm zamiast europejskich 1435mm). Szerokie pasmo możesz mieć, ale w....radiofonii.
Silna Polska jest nie na rękę Szwabom, Ruskim, unijnym biurokratom, pozostałych szkoda wyliczać. Muszą za pomocą zdrajców kompradorów rozłożyć Polskę gospodarczo. Zatem Tusk dostał rozkaz i realizuje go bardzo sprawnie. Młodzi Uśmiechnięci z Jagodna nic nie kumają, podobnie ok. 30% społeczeństwa ogłupianego na codzień propagandą TVNu i Wyborczej. A mogło być tak pięknie. Eh, chyba czas wyjeżdżać… tylko dokąd
You okay😂
Propaganda. Social media really
Sucks.
So .. past the zoomers, our demographics might be closer to Germany and Russia
"If Russia beats Ukraine, definitely coming for Warsaw." Bullshit. How does he know?
Have you been living under a rock? He's not the only one who has been saying this. Open your eyes.
For a globalist, zeihan comes across as a homeboy: doing the bug-eye when the host switches to Polish at the end ; - is he surprised?
Pracując śledziłem kanał Zeihana. Wiele razy zapewniał mnie że Ukraińcy zniszczą tylko taki tam jeden most, i z marszu na Krym wjadą.
Upadek Chin wróży od czasów Stratforu. Są to średnie wyznaczniki sukcesu, ale jednak, np. CATL otwiera fabryki w EU (Węgry), i wdraża nową technologię baterii (sodowo-jonowych). Pojawia się coraz więcej rozpoznawalnych Chińskich marek (nie tylko telefonów). Najpopularniejszym elektrykiem w tym roku w PL może być MG 3. Wśród małych adv pojawiły się chwalone CF-Moto 450 MT oraz Kove 450 Rally. Mają własne marki i własny R&D, a prezydent teraz odwiedza Chiny z nadzieją na ruch bezwizowy.
Chciałbym by Polska upadała jak Chiny.
Mam wrażenie że w swojej analizie Zeihan zapomina, że Chiny mogą tak samo otworzyć się na migrację jak zachód i w ten sposób łagodzić kryzys demograficzny. Skoro partia była w stanie zmusić Chińczyków do max 1-go dziecka, i chodzenia w maseczkach przez 3 lata, to będą w stanie sprawić że przestaną dźgać nożami turystów, i nazywać murzynów małpami.
Zeihan pisze o upadku Chin i o tym jak to Ameryka jest najlepszym i samowystarczalnym krajem na świecie, bo to łechta jankeskie ego ergo jego książki się sprzedają. Ale co do otworzenia się na migrację to Chiny tak średnio "mogą" to zrobić. Po pierwsze skala. Francja ma 65 milionów Niemcy 80 milionów ludzi przy tak(relatywnie) małej populacji nie trudno znaleźć imigrantów. Ponadto kraje Zachodnie są dużo bogatsze od chin(na osobę) więc są atrakcyjniejszym kierunkiem migracji. Tym bardziej, że potencjalni migranci już potrafią mówić w języku europejskim(angielskim/francuskim/hiszpańskim/ portugalskim/rosyjskim) jako skutek kolonializmu. Większość ludzi mówiących po chińsku poza Chinami to diaspora, która zajmuję zwykle wysoką pozycję w hierarchii społecznej swojego kraju(głównie Azja południowo-wschodnia) i nie ma po co migrować do Chin.
China is possible the most heterogeneous society in the world and possible the most unfavorable to outsiders….. not a place immigrants want to go for a new life
@Alaryk111 Actually, the USA is self-reliant. What do you think we were doing before WWII? The USA was isolationist. Apparently, you don't know anything about American history. The USA has been the largest economy since 1871. We have the most arable land on the planet. The USA has vast untapped resources, we produce our own oil, gas, coal, food, wood, cotton...etc The USA has been the country that has invented most modern technology from the internet, iPhone, email, MRI, Chemotherapy, hearing aid, conveyor belt, airplane, helicopters, submarines and the list goes on. 85 out of 100 most successful companies are American. Most social media platforms are American. The USA also invented nukes. I could go on and on. You seem triggered that Peter is saying the USA wants to go back to our isolationist ways. Americans are tired of being the world's sugar daddy. We want our government to focus on us for once. I don't want my tax dollars helping everyone in the world when we have 341 million ppl to care for. It's time the USA let's other countries take care of their own problems. Peter isn't making up stuff to tickle American's ears. The few things I mentioned above are the facts. Also, Peter isn't the only one talking about these things. China and Russia are having terrible problems in their economies and demographics. Go see for yourself. Peter has no reason to make up bs. The guy is highly educated and has experience. All I want is the world to take care of their own problems. The USA and Americans are tired of taking care of the world.
Poor guy seems kind of shaken thinking of the USA going back to our old ways😂. Listen, the USA before WWII were isolationists. We were not a part of the global community. The USA was self-reliant from food, natural resources, and technologies. The list goes on. We have the most arable land on the planet and never needed outside help. Even as isolationists, we have had the largest economy in the world since 1871. The USA has taken care of the world and its problems long enough. It's time we take care of ourselves. I live on a border state, and I want that thing closed. Let countries take care of their own problems and wars. Our military should be on our continent taking care of our national security. I don't want my country being the world police. I am pretty sure many Americans feel that way, too. I want to buy my own country's products. They were high quality and made to last. The USA needs to focus on the Americas, which includes South America. I am not saying we can't be friends with the world, but we don't need to be involved in everything on the other side of the planet does. It's time to cut the apron strings.
nie z jeb@nym szkopem na stanowisku premiera
😢🙄❤
Poland will flatten Russia
czytalem jego ksiazke z 2022 i jest w niej..... pro amerykański, i takze lewicowy
So how it is that clothing is priciest in US of all world ?
Zeihan organizes(part of) the data to defend his wishful predictions.
He doesn't like some players and is ok with others (that coincides with the biggest potential rivals of US and their most faithful allies/those who favour their interests somehow...).
Of course he wants to believe in the Russian collapse and the void being filled by Poland and Turkey, while US allies as France and Japan patrol the Western and Eastern buffer areas of US with the rest of the World (that is basically US enemies failling in everything, besides, maybe, non rival countries like India and new allies, like Argentina is now).
Americans want our government to spend our tax dollars on our own country and people. Peter isn't the only person talking about this. Use your two remaining braincells and research the Russian and Chinese economies and demographics. You can use American Google to do your research...it's free. 😂
Tired of policing the world so very tired in spending money and blood so much of both.
The world has resented the USA for being the “world police” for decades.
Nic tylko robić dzieci :D
The US has not been able to afford it for years. And EU not been paying its way for years militarily. Now EU may have to handle the Russians alone
Russia: I have nukes
Europe: we have Poland
The EU is not NATO, it is not a defensive alliance it is an economic grouping.
@@nni9310 they will still get steamrollered if they don’t rearm themselves
NATO... Testimony to "no good deed goes unpunished".
Phyrric take over of Ukraine would do what? That's what I would like to know
what the russians need isn't just ukraine, its the countries west (the baltic states, poland, romania) as they have the natural barriers with choke points inbetween that can be easily defended. all russian expansion is aimed at establishing that. the russian border as it sits now is not defendable. it's large flat country that can't all be fortified and guarded, a hand full of chokepoints between seas, mountains an rivers however can much more easily be defended. the point is this: a victory in ukraine, even phyrric, give the russians the 35 or so million ukrainans that are left, the most fertile soil on the planet and their industrial base aswell. whether or not this is true, the russians will undoubtedly believe they can press ahead and so they will. they will also think they wont risk nuclear war by pushing ahead. likely both assumptions are wrong. the consequence of that however is nuclear war. in short: if the russians get their shalacking in ukraine they won't look for trouble further west and die more quietly. if the russians manage to get ukraine, all bets are off
Shameles confabulator
I think Peter is very wrong.
Just because we won't go into a country like Afghanistan again, does not mean we are withdrawing from the world.
There is too much American money in too many countries for the US to become isolationist.
I really don't know what he means when he says we didn't invest our economy into other parts of the world. US companies spent trillions of dollars on infrastructure and industrial plant in southeast Asia, China and Mexico. 15% of our GDP is imports and 10% or so is imports, so about a quarter of our GDP is trade. I'm not saying he is wrong, but I don't understand the point he is making given those facts.
there is a difference between 15% and 70 or 80% dependency on foreign trade furthermore the US focuses its trade in the NAFTA sphere (mexico and canada). so the US economy is mostly insular (unlike china which is mostly dependend on foreign trade to function) and in the areas it isn't it can achieve self sufficiency albeit with some effort but the ingredients are all there (especially with mexico and canada as all three together complement each other very well)
The US is far less reliant on import/export than any other highly developed nation.
But he conveniently forgets a few things. Capital markets, IP and the reserve currency. FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) alone makes up like half of the SP500. That (access to global markets) can be switched off by the press of a button and rich Americans net worth will shrink by 25% overnight, and the pension system will immediately be strained. Nations can also start ignoring IP rights, build everything themselves and then not only do royalty payments stop, but the profits from manufacturing. Also, loosing reserve currency status will not only diminish their purchasing power by a significant percentage, but lending will get more expensive (state debt), and they'll loose the ability to impose sanctions or trade rules or they couldnt settle/arbitrate intl. disputes and so forth.
It's not happening immediately, but within a few years a lot can happen and the US has much to loose. Maybe most of anyone. So I don't see it like Peter Z does at all.
@@mysterioanonymous3206I can agree with you in some things but the big picture people like to speculate the US will be in a world of hurt if we lost reserve currency status. I’d argue it will force the US to finally shape up and get its act together and that’s a good thing. What currency would replace the dollar? China and other emerging markets will lose more than the Americans so once again the topic becomes who is better off? The USA is net exporter of food and fuel, you think the US will accept payment in something other than US dollars?? Trump has talked about backing the US dollar with gold, what do you think would happen if the dollar was backed by gold. Most importantly people forget the USA became an economic powerhouse at the end of the 19th century when the dollar was not a reserve currency. Just because we won’t have trillionaires doesn’t mean all is lost.
@@nicoles9077 many countries throughout the years have tried to abolish the usd as reserve currency, and most of them with bad intentions (dictatorial regimes). But since 2008 there's been a push even from institutions like the IMF ad the world bank, and for good reason. The idea that was and is floated is a currency basket (USD, EUR, Yen, CHF, Renminbi and a few others) so no single entity can manipulate monetary policy and that's a solid idea. 2008 really illustrated the global risks and frankly it's the right to do, the US currently holds an undeserved, disproportionate amount of leverage.
I think what people don't understand is that you can only maintain the reserve currency if you have political and economic weight, and that doesn't exist in a vacuum. If you have no trade relations and no military presence (security services that benefit your "partners")... You have no leverage. In fact, you have nothing. The Brits learned that lesson, as did many others before them. That can happen to the US too. Pull your troops out and stop trading and your world will change in ways you can't even imagine rn.
That's why trust is so important, because if nations decide they dont want to settle trade disputes within certain institutions, and you have no military presence (again security, not occupation), and you don't benefit them economically through trade, things will unravel real f in quick.
@@mysterioanonymous3206 well as an American I don’t think our leverage is disproportionate. Many rich countries around the world are rich because they have access to the US market and are secure because of the US military. China, Japan and the Europeans are rich because we rebuilt Europe and Japan after World War 2 and China sold many products to the US and used their trade surpluses to build their wealth. China is an old country that’s been around for a good 2000 years and they have grown their wealth and middle class because of the global system set up by the USA. Do you think China would be where they are today if they traded with their neighbors and Africa? The answer is no? Europe has enjoyed peace these last several decades because of nato and access to US markets, even though many of them didn’t bother to pay their fair share in financing nato. So I’m not sure what planet you live on to argue that the US somehow doesn’t deserve its status when the rest of the world is rich mainly because of the system the USA set up at the detriment of its own people. Americans have lost manufacturing jobs to other countries and we certainly don’t enjoy a safety net other countries enjoy because we are the ones paying for their security. So you can miss me with your nonsense.
Like I said even if the USa is not the single reserve currency the dollar will be around long term because we export food and fuel which will be paid for in US dollars. If you ask the average person around the world they would much rather have food than an iPhone or Louis Vuitton bag. China can’t feed itself without the outside world. Just in case you haven’t noticed there’s a lot more regional small conflicts around the world since the USA has become more disinterested in global policing. Those mini conflicts will have a negative effect on global trade and the world economy will not grow so fast in the future. This idea that the world will be one happy kumbaya while the USa slinks into irrelevancey is a pipe dream. You think the Philippines will continue to let China attack their boats with no consequences? Did you not hear about the terrorist attacks in Russia? A lot of these conflicts have popped off because of weak US leadership and authoritative countries flexing their muscles.
Nakręca Cię na zderzak na Rosję ten facet, więc uważaj tam.
Peters narrative is getting tired.
Zeihan to mitoman. Najpierw postawi tezę a później szuka argumentów które mu do niej pasują. Warto go posłuchać ale to nie "słowo Boże"
Zgoda. Rzuca dużą ilością danych ale ma wyidealizowany obraz stanu świata pro-USA. Bagatelizuje problemy i wyolbrzymia korzyści.
Niemniej jednak porusza ważne aspekty, takie jak zależności od żywności, energii, produkcji i technologii: USA są albo mogą być niezależne w bardzo krótkim czasie w każdej kategorii, europa nie. Dlatego popieram te "zielone łady" - bo to uniezależni Europę od kupowanych kopalin (w razie konfliktu: embargo i leżymy) i zastępuje "zieloną energią" - pieniądze zostają w Europie i uniezależnia od zewnętrznych bloków. Tak, drożej, ale też i bezpieczniej. Żywność i technologie mamy, z produkcją bardzo słabo - za dużo fabryk wyniesione poza Europę, w przeciwieństwie do USA, które więcej u siebie zostrawili a od dekaty spowrotem sprowadzają. W razie konfliktu pewnie powstałyby u nas fabryki a "zielone łady" byłyby zawieszone w kontekście emisji, ale aktualnie kaganiec produkcyjny (nie ten energetyczny) wypycha produkcję poza Europę co w długiej perspektywie prowadzi do utraty technologii. Ale co ci z fabryki jak energii nie masz i z Rosji czy bliskiego wschodu musisz sprowadzać?
PS.
Tym wszystkim krzykaczom o Polskim węglu polecam przyjrzeć się bliżej kosztom wydobycia i wielkości pokładów 😂 Nasze złoża powinny zostać w największym stopniu tak jak są - jako strategiczna twarda rezerwa, nie tylko dla nas, ale naszych dzieci. Co z tego że "zeżremy" teraz, jak dzieci w ten sposób zostawimy w jeszcze gorszej sytuacji - bez energii i zasobów strategicznie rezerwowych?
Nie wiem czy mitoman. Jest na pewno niepoprawnym optymistą, ale problemy i atuty o których mówi istnieją, nie zmyśla ich.
@@rafalmik to jest nasz największy zarzut, że przykłada nieobiektywną wagę. Ale pewnie trochę to tak po prostu wygląda z naszej perspektywy.
I would be willing to listen to your thesis and arguments, or counter arguments, if you have any.
so why should we have to take care of the world with all the trouble you all cause
I would like to see a debate between Zeihan and Mearsheimer. I get the distinct feeling Zeihan get owned
Pfft. Mearsheimer won't stand a chance.
❤agreed : he is a typical FANTASIST he lacks GENUINE knowledge . He thrills the IGNORANT 😂😂😂.
Actually a collaboration between Zeihan and Mearsheimer would be more interesting-they argue from different perspectives. Peter looks at demographics and supply chains while Meirsheimer looks at political behavior and military risk calculations of governments. One does not exist without the other.
This goof that they’ve suddenly begun to push has the coldest of cold takes. His primary (unintentional) value is in demonstrating the incapacity of his handlers.
The world turned it's back on the US first. No matter what we would do or didn't do we would be criticized. Fine then, you all take care of the world's problems.
This is what America wanted to do. Control the sea lanes and the money flow. They chose the wars and dragged everybody else into them with lies and self-interested. All their allies replied and participated. Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, meddling in Africa and South America and fighting governments that they disagreed with and causing revolutions in support of their petro-chemical companies. Seriously, what history books are you reading? Do you read?
Peter Zeihan has the knowledge & so his role of spinning the narrative comes off credible.... Peter Zeihan would like you to think the US created the current system... wrong, it was a partnership... it was entered in to in good faith.... Peter Zeihan would like you to think that the US is dismantling the current system, wrong... More than one participant is dismantling it wether the US likes it or not....
At the end of WWII no one was left but the Americans. Go read about the Marshall Plan if you really think it was a "partnership".
@@jayclark8284 The neutralisation of Nazi Germany was a partnership & after German capitulation the Soviet Union recovered without using $1 from the Marshall plan investment fund...60% of the Marshall plan went to West Germany, France & UK, Italy received some... Like the Soviets, Japan & South Korea were more than capable of rebuilding without the US but shit happens when you lose a war. Bretton woods was a partnership of 44 countries up until 15/8/1971 when Nixon had to break that contract because the US overspent on the US proxy war with China, AKA Vietnam....
I'm not a rancher but I know bullshit when I smell it......
A hectare sized facility with a staff of two. Sometimes your really full of shit peter.
The first thing I do when I see a "man bun " on a geopolitical commentator , is turn my hearing aid off . Sorry Peter , I read your book. and recycled it like responsible citizen .
I think that EU wan’t let Poland to achieve that goal having recent government to be stronger competitor to Germany.
John Mearsheimer is far more of an eminent geo-political scientist than Peter Zeihen. Zeihan's opinion lacks any essence of reality and he does not present a serious argument. Russia lacks the military capability to invade and occupy Ukraine, let along Poland. Unless it plans to nuke Poland and make it an uninhabited wasteland. If it invaded, then it would need an occupying army of several million soldiers to fight an insurgency. Seriously, there is a greater threat to Poland from Ukrainians staying in Poland and stressing its social system. This will continue until the war is over or has stabilized suuficiently to all them to return to Ukraine. My grandparents immigrated from Poland to America in the early 1900s. Please don't fall for Zehan's hogwash.
I think it’s the other way around. While I don’t agree with Zeihan’s many hyperboles i think he’s hitting much closer to reality than Mearsheimer whom is blatantly affected by Kremlin fear influence in his logic
@@NistenTahiraj ...and money
@@JohnWeirdoeI suspect you’re right …
@@JohnWeirdoe lol, is that true? genuinely asking
@@NistenTahiraj today, Russia has no ideology to sell. Russian conservatism, traditional values etc. is a lie that has no background in reality but communism in the 20's and 30's had huge impact in the western societies. Money attracts the most.
😂😂.. breakdown Russia as a state?? Good luck with that! That’s not going to happen!
To drugi Friedman gdzie nic się nie sprawdza...
Zeihan is the next generation of Friedman
USA will not last for ever too. You are to young country growing to fast
We’ve been through worse times; I’m sure we can overcome these issues.
America is the world son.
So you don't know about ARM, British company based in Cambridge, ARM CPUs used in virtually all modern smartphones. This mans ignorance is astonishing
ARM was bought by Japanese firm.
Man bun is old school.
Waanker the world is turning its back on the u s of BS
Ha ha you got to be kidding. Europe is desperately trying to figure out how to balance China influence while restructuring to be more self-sufficient. But 70-80 % of it's military equipment comes from US. Sweden and France are the most self-sufficient countries in Europe around arms but the rest buys US equipment.
Start back scratching. 🤌
More loofa.