Black Swan Event by definition is something you don't see coming. Brexit was not a Black Swan because you are aware of the possible outcomes way before it happens.
My guess is that Cameron thought of the Brexit vote passing as a Black Swan even if rational minds didn't. Remember he is a posh boy who got everything he ever wanted up to that point, he used to run a club that committed major acts of vandalism simply to prove its members were rich enough to get away with anything. He won two elections on the basis of enriching a small elite at the expense even of those who voted for him. From his perspective the electorate not behaving precisely as their masters told them was four standard deviations to the right. (Note I didn't vote for Brexit or think it was a good idea, my point is simply about Cameron's attitude)
Cameron understood many of NNT’s lessons. Primarily aiming to reduce deficit as a means of reducing overall debt exposure - he failed but at least he was aiming for the right thing. Debt is toxic and is an existential risk for the West. We can overcome it but it needs action.
One can reduce the probability of Black Swans by changing the regulatory framework in which markets operate. It is the concentration of wealth in few hands that is causing danger to the rest of society..in a free market. We need to control the largest animals in industry and finance.
12:18 Islam does not ban debt it bans interest, in fact the longest verse in the Quran (quran.com/2/282) exclusively discusses debt and how to manage it.
Automatic Diaphragm Many do without. If you're asking why people help each other without expecting counterpart , you should live in a different planet.
Islam urges those with the capacity to lend to do so, and do it often, this is a valued form of charity due to its role in helping the less fortune and benefiting society in general. Islam promises earthly and afterlife reward for those who take such risks. Moreover, Islam urges the lenders who come to realize that their borrowers will not be able to pay, or do so with considerable difficulty, not to ask for payment.
5:35 You can have interdependence not a big deal but you can't have too big to fail you have to make sure that something happens that consequences are manageable. 6:26 Mother nature does not like Ricardo concept. One country specialized in wine and other country specialized in cloth or some other item. Mother nature do the opposite of specialization we call functional redundancy or degeneracy for eg mother nature assume your lips to eat to talk to taste a lot of things. So it's the opposite of specialization so mother nature can show us how to build a robust system a system that can withstand huge deviations and stay standing.
We all of course know that some of us can be brilliantly rational in certain areas of our lives, whilst being brilliantly irrational in other areas. Look at Newton, as case in point. He was a brilliant scientist and mathematician on the one hand, whilst at the same time he thought he would actually be able to create gold from base metals in his home lab, and believed in the divine. It's nuts!
There are swans that are naturally black. What happened is more like a white swan that was deliberately and meticulously tarred black over a span of several years.
The problem with Taleb's antifragility model is that when the players all move toward that position, the fragility domain changes and needs to be redefined meanwhile new castles are formed, but it will take corrections to find the new information. This is due to human hubris which cannot be managed.
So what? What does Cameron's personal opinion on evolution, have to do with his ability to understand Black Swans, or, for that matter, whether Taleb knows anything about Cameron's beliefs/opinions?
One can reduce the probability of Black Swans by changing the regulatory framework in which markets operate. It is the concentration of wealth in few hands that is causing danger to the rest of society..in a free market.
This man should be listened to and taken seriously. Thanks Nassim.
Peter Heise come back
read more
I love this guy, i wish he cold be more available in times like these.., I wish to see him at Joe Rogan or something..,
He has said before that he doesn't go on podcasts that host charlatans or BS vendors. Joe has had a looooooot of those.
Not sure why one would be willing to talk to David Cameron, but not to Rogan.
Joe rogan viewers aren't exactly the most intelligent. Don't think nassim would go that low
Lol as if Rogan would have anything intelligent to ask him. Taleb's position about rejecting his invitation if that happened is clear.
rogan is a major quack under quacks
Pisses me off that the audience doesn't laugh at his jokes...
actually, taleb hates programmed laughs
Most of the things which Nassim talks about are unconventional. It's difficult for an average programmed mind to capture what he says.
@@DrunkCatEyeless
There's nothing "programmed" about laughing at a joke.
He's too smart for this audience
Thank you for everything Nassim
So now little David has created his own Black Swan...
Black Swan Event by definition is something you don't see coming. Brexit was not a Black Swan because you are aware of the possible outcomes way before it happens.
My guess is that Cameron thought of the Brexit vote passing as a Black Swan even if rational minds didn't. Remember he is a posh boy who got everything he ever wanted up to that point, he used to run a club that committed major acts of vandalism simply to prove its members were rich enough to get away with anything. He won two elections on the basis of enriching a small elite at the expense even of those who voted for him. From his perspective the electorate not behaving precisely as their masters told them was four standard deviations to the right. (Note I didn't vote for Brexit or think it was a good idea, my point is simply about Cameron's attitude)
Holger K. von Jouanne-Diedrich I bet he thinks of this talk often
nassim is the man
Welcome to 2022, were once again Nassim Taleb is proven right.
“Mother Nature does not like leverage, Mother Nature does not like too big to fail.”
the royal society for putting things on top of other things
David Cameron, you came(!) & you conversed. Much appreciate it.How much didn't I know you before.
This guy is a genius
Legit Points, I am surprised he even got a stage to expres them. Usually the 'establishment' does anything to take away the mic.
Maybe that's why Cameron is now trying to take UK out of EU. to reduce interdependence and risk contagions coming from EU.
The reaction to this interview is discussed in 'skin in the game'
Is it to late to read it, Dave?
Cameron understood many of NNT’s lessons. Primarily aiming to reduce deficit as a means of reducing overall debt exposure - he failed but at least he was aiming for the right thing. Debt is toxic and is an existential risk for the West. We can overcome it but it needs action.
He lit the match of the single most destructive idea that has befallen the UK in its history.
@@adolfgarlic4157 Brexit? Brexit is irrelevant.
@@Withnail1969irrelevant????
@@PleaseSayYesTV Our current economic problems are nothing to do with Brexit.
Artfully predicting how hyperinflation happened decade prior
i like the fact that Cameron is looking to experts for new ideas on how to tackle the situation
They are gimmicks, as usual.
defiinitely.
EU is a bad idea through and through. talk about "too big to fail" ...
found the russian bot
What he said at @24:09 Oakeshott and ???
also trying to get that one for the last half an hour
@@cristianburich6828 Oakeshott and Bruno.
Michael Oakeshott
Giordano Bruno
(but I'm not sure about this)
Ernest Renan.
❤
One can reduce the probability of Black Swans by changing the regulatory framework in which markets operate. It is the concentration of wealth in few hands that is causing danger to the rest of society..in a free market.
We need to control the largest animals in industry and finance.
listening while the world is hit with a virus called covid 19. Having read Black swan, Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The ideas are ruminating.
12:18 Islam does not ban debt it bans interest, in fact the longest verse in the Quran (quran.com/2/282) exclusively discusses debt and how to manage it.
But without interest, why would anyone give money?
Automatic Diaphragm
Many do without.
If you're asking why people help each other without expecting counterpart , you should live in a different planet.
Islam urges those with the capacity to lend to do so, and do it often, this is a valued form of charity due to its role in helping the less fortune and benefiting society in general. Islam promises earthly and afterlife reward for those who take such risks. Moreover, Islam urges the lenders who come to realize that their borrowers will not be able to pay, or do so with considerable difficulty, not to ask for payment.
I would argue that moderate interest has motivational aspect to it.
theologically sound point, realistically it's absolute bullshit and the rate at which it occurs is closer to 0 than you would like to think
5:35 You can have interdependence not a big deal but you can't have too big to fail you have to make sure that something happens that consequences are manageable.
6:26 Mother nature does not like Ricardo concept. One country specialized in wine and other country specialized in cloth or some other item. Mother nature do the opposite of specialization we call functional redundancy or degeneracy for eg mother nature assume your lips to eat to talk to taste a lot of things. So it's the opposite of specialization so mother nature can show us how to build a robust system a system that can withstand huge deviations and stay standing.
yeah on this side of the pond the favored " intellectual" of the administration is krugman... UGH...
4:50 we live in a world that is much more fragile
We all of course know that some of us can be brilliantly rational in certain areas of our lives, whilst being brilliantly irrational in other areas. Look at Newton, as case in point. He was a brilliant scientist and mathematician on the one hand, whilst at the same time he thought he would actually be able to create gold from base metals in his home lab, and believed in the divine. It's nuts!
You know that there are very very few people in the UK who are creationists right?
There are swans that are naturally black. What happened is more like a white swan that was deliberately and meticulously tarred black over a span of several years.
There is always an end.
he didn't read the book
Nassim Nassim Nassim 💜
So prescient! COVID19 confirms his story
Human wisdom : an action intellectual reduced to common sense
Simple solution: add another, then another shell!
The problem with Taleb's antifragility model is that when the players all move toward that position, the fragility domain changes and needs to be redefined meanwhile new castles are formed, but it will take corrections to find the new information. This is due to human hubris which cannot be managed.
That's American conservative. British conservatives are usually just born rich.
And then David Cameron called the Brexit referendum if only he'd listened to Taleb XD
So what? What does Cameron's personal opinion on evolution, have to do with his ability to understand Black Swans, or, for that matter, whether Taleb knows anything about Cameron's beliefs/opinions?
+Cascade3891 In the UK we have Darwin on the £10 note. This is not controversial.
One can reduce the probability of Black Swans by changing the regulatory framework in which markets operate. It is the concentration of wealth in few hands that is causing danger to the rest of society..in a free market.
David Cameron now PM not MP
David Cameron now is the ex-PM and pig fucker.
Even before watching it i can tell it will have aged shy t leigh
taleb is so handsome =]
Digital currency, What a concept! My bit coin is worth my initial investment of my promise of future labor.
Do you still have Bitcoin?