The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought | Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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- Опубликовано: 15 мар 2020
- Skeptical empiricist Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable", has bracing things to say about the future. It is inevitable that we will be massively blindsided by events, because our understanding is misled by an array of beguiling illusions about reality. Some lessons: Events are not predictable, but consequences are, so focus on preparedness. Pay attention to elders, because they've experienced more Black Swans. Check Wikipedia's bio: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_T... of Taleb for more on the vividness of his ideas and exposition.
"The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought" was given on February 04, 02008 as part of Long Now's Seminar series. The series was started in 02003 to build a compelling body of ideas about long-term thinking from some of the world's leading thinkers. The Seminars take place in San Francisco and are curated and hosted by Stewart Brand. To follow the talks, you can:
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"The stock market is the opiate of the middle class". So many gems in this talk, but that takes the cake.
Thank you for pointing this snippet out, Chen!
When he said he could only tell someone what NOT to do, it reminded me of my favorite definition of an expert: someone who knows the things most likely to go wrong and how to avoid them, e.g. what NOT to do.
“It is the glory of God to conceal a matter; to search out a matter is the glory of kings.”. Proverbs 25:2
This man is a genius in his field and also a comic genius!
At 47:32. Absolutely priceless commentary on the 1 in 10,000 years events. Love the photo, it looks like me.
I have to listen to Taleb at .75 speed to have a chance of really following him. The speed of his speech, plus his accent plus the complexity of his ideas.
Exactly...add to this his wit...I laugh a minute or so after he tells his jokes or makes his witty remarks...lots of lag
The first time I have realized that I have done so many things wrong
Probably the best Taleb talk out there. It's crazy how all my idols seem to congregate to Long Now !
Thanks for the amazing work!
I love listening to Mr Taleb! Never knew of this talk in 2008
Thank you for sharing this.
Maybe if we had billion plus views on videos of these Kind and not on Justin Beiber songs
We might be well prepared to deal with the Pandemic of COVID-19
We would be complaining about the time people wasted on speeches and not action.
@HTC one Ali Ahmad respectfully i have to say; this talk hasn't helped you at all. Calling a very rare flu with %99.5 recoverability rate a "Pandemic" tells the world that you do not do any of your own research. Your comment tells everyone that you have no critical thinking skills. You're under mind control. You need to stop tuning into your nightly news "programming". Such a lack of independent thinking allows the evil & malignant ruling class to get away with mass murder & much worse! Totalitarian policies based on obvious lies, forcing business closed & costing families their homes...all only possible because of people like you believing & trusting the liars who want you dead.
Try to prove me wrong. You might learn the most critical lesson of your life.
@@richarddebono7092 you're right
@@richarddebono7092 I so agree yet I am baffled, please do explain what is much worse than MASS MURDER?
@@richarddebono7092 You answered their bias with your own bias. You made assumptions the same way they did. Youre just more educated. 44:00 1:07:00
Thanks long now it’s one of best talks of Taleb that I’ve found.
HAR HAR MODI
18:04 How to turn lack of knowledge and lack of understanding into action? for me this question was life changing!
A stunning intellect
A skeptical empiricist-right, on!
No, no Nassim, Black Swan wine is not undrinkable! It is bold and unexpected!
I was on a flight home to D.F and met a woman from Leon and we talked from S.L.C. to Mexico. In Dallas she disappeared for 10 minutes and came back with The Black Swan. This was 2008. It was the last book I would have ever read. As a book of non fiction it is a book that I return to over and over. Pound for paragraph, my favorite book..Thanks, Stewart, I got my first Whole Earth Catalogue in 1970. Wow.
Why haven't you read other books?
@@kamaujohn6303
I really hope you're not joking or I'm gonna sound very dumb here.
Whilst initially I too thought his English was broken, I now believe Charles was trying to say "I would never have thought to read a book like that", and not that it ended up being his last book; hence "I would have ever read" and not "I would ever read".
👍Excellent
1:19:50
The question is, why are some people vastly smarter than others? What are the factors and how can we get more?
Good lecture, I wonder if how should I interpret the fact that Long Now Foundation apparently did not predict that 240 p might not be desirable resolution in the future. (This does not mean it was acceptable in 2008 either...interesting...telling....both?)
43:32 - gliding more and more into concentrated disorder
[ 9:00 ] it's like: "armor the parts that weren't hit."
Trading is linear. You lose as much as you win. It's not non-linear, and there is no way of risk management that makes it so.
1:26:03 McCain? Romney? How did it turn out?
LongNow has a PDF transcript but the download link is broken. Does anyone have it?
What would you do with that?.. genuinely curious
@@rishabhverma4785 I'd like to show the presentation to friends who have poor comprehension of English
RUclips should show a transcript option now
@@RajasPoorna you mean the auto-generated subtitles? they're not bad, but far from perfect (well, we should take into account Taleb's pronunciation, which is an additional hindrance).
I bet when he refers to plumbers that includes monetary plumbers
Proud Lebanese after Khalil Jibran.
[ 37:27 ] *prognostication* : Yes, imagine trying to sell the last 2 decades of history to someone living in 2001.
Ya, right. ✅
He hates Phil Tetlock now..
ghazal i was born in iran
like Khayyam and Sina and they wrote in Arabic the sintfic language of the time and died in iran
What the hell was the creepy initial tune.
felt like I am walking into a cult
here for the COV19
Me too :)
44:40 i disagree with Taleb here, if you are an investor you dont care what the price will be in 1 year or 5 years, you just care that the business is cheap and simple to understand. You do not rely on forecasts, narratives or something abstract, contrary to religion.
Bro i love the ideas that nassim and his protege mark spitznagel say, but nassim is better in his books 🤣
Something that seems like a place where mediocristan and extremistan come together is the United States electoral college. Theyre supposed to follow the popular vote (mediocristan) but they can choose how to vote (extremistan).
The genius of the Electoral College was to transform a close election into one beyond question, not to mention valuing small states votes. Imagine a close popular vote direct election result that is only thousands of votes apart. There would be challenges in every district in every state to “find” or “manufacture” votes to sway the result. Elections would never end or would constantly be questioned, which is worst that one candidate or the other winning. Today half the population questions the legitimacy of the 2020 winner because so much of the voting was non-standard with ballots outside of the normal chain of evidence control. A truly bad outcome for the future, regardless of the winner
Ed Thorpe ain't lucky.
its called Hume's problem, but it is not his problem ... rofl
eeh
while i understand what he means, literally ALL of his first bunch of examples were predictable....
the tie? the widespread use of the computer? the success of harry potter? who predicted these things?
You are falling into a retrospection bias... if Harry Potter success would be obvious, Jk Rowling would had never been rejected dozens of time... the experts of the industry that she went with were the best candidates to predict that sucesss and still 99% of them failed ...
@@facundomiranda3391 100%
L
44:25 Comparing stockmarket to religion? Wow. That is wild. Suspect the professor lost money on the stockmarket.
no he bets on disasters so he wins big
11:53 psychologogical bias
He is trying to hard and his feelings of inferiority is showing.
Why?
Why the pretentious macbook?
30 min in and I haven't learned anything worthwhile
Try "How to get rich quickly" then
His arrogance is repulsive.
Not very good speaker. Yes. Let's get on with it! What is the Black swan problem? Try to mumble and stutter through at least two ccomplete, coherent and coordinated sentences. I stopped listening.
Are you here for learning public speaking lessons?