If you'd like to take your football trading to the next level and want the short cut then there is an answer. Ultimate Football Trading premium course is coming soon, more info: sportstradinglife.com/ytwaitinglist
Don’t forget guys you don’t have to enter in first half in all the top leagues there are more goals scored in 2nd halves of games! You also have the option to enter at half time and it’s not restricted to over 2.5 if 0-0 you can use 1.5 for example or if the game has a few goals already you can use over 3.5 etc so many ways to skin a cat and this video gives you great pointers and ideas to get you started.After time you get more experience and then you can add you own ideas if you want to :)
Hi mate I don’t have a twitter account. I do look on there and see what this guy and his followers tweet though. I prefer to read tweets rather than do my own. :)
Been looking at it. Waiting to half time or nearly, if its 1-0 - 0-1 Jump in on the over 3.5 when liability is low like 1.20 - 1.10 . time that occurs varies.. then another pop on the 2.5 over about 77 mins.. can run these to the end as the losses are tiny and the pressure cooker of the match is on with one team having to go for a goal. Plus you are never on a 0-0 .. !
Problem with that is you place that bet before kick off without even knowing if you’ll be entering a overs trade. You could just end up with a lost 0-0 bet before getting involved in overs
How do you choose when to get in on the action? Do you watch all the games you bet on and bet on feel as to which game will score quickly or do you solely look at stats?
Lay the draw second hals and back the dominant team are the best and all you need to trade.. Gives you the incentive to follow a match from start to end
Coming from a matched betting experience, I decided to try football trading. I used this method on my first weekend of trading and I managed to profit £420 and I felt invincible. I repeated the same process again over a fortnight with same stakes, same big high scoring teams and managed to lose all the profit :( Sucks ! Hopefully I get better
You lay ( the red button) a bet to remove your liability, after the goal goes in... Betfair will show you the change in potential profits before you place... If you do this and there is under 2.5 goals you will not lose your original stake... However your profits will be less if there are over 2.5 goals If the stats say that the match is going to be a goal fest then you might want to take a risk and let it run or trade out half your liability (original stake)
Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge. At first, i had no idea what betfair trading was and today you've taught me almost everything... Thanks so much for such easy videos. Whats your favourite method of trading? I prefer trading the under 2.5 market cause its alwasy dropping and giving quick profits..
It's about picking the right game not about the betting,pick 2 evenly matched sides without top goal scorers.you got a better chance of no earl goal and losing 3 quarters of your stake
Simon Taylor This is just superb, been searching for "free betfair betting bots" for a while now, and I think this has helped. You ever tried - Nanroocer Trading Tiptronics - (search on google ) ? Ive heard some interesting things about it and my colleague got cool results with it.
"Look for home favourites that tend to score in the 1st half". In my opinion as an Odds Compiler of 8 years you'd be better off looking for home favourites that tend to create a lot of chances in the first half. There is a big element of randomness to the finish itself and this is a good opportunity to exploit the market (for example if a favourite hasn't scored many goals in the first half in recent games but actually had a tonne of chances to) that could mean great value on betting
Hi James, yes this would be an even better approach. But perhaps a little bit trickier to find precise stats on, especially since judgement would have to be used about what is a "good" chance or not. :)
I understand you are just working with what you have (i.e no model) and I'm sure you yourself have been successful in making money, but I think it's a little unfair to give people advice like this, which will ultimately lead to more losses than wins in the long run, we just don't hear about the losses. I've been in this business a long time at a company with an actual algorithm for finding value and mug betting like this is the reason we make money. I also saw your under 2.5 video which is equally ridiculous with the greatest of respect going by shots on and off target and possession is just not enough. Bookies know what they are doing, they have algorithms too. It is certainly possible to beat the bookies, but not without a model of your own.
So if as in the example you find a match where the under odds are very low and over odds 3.0+ would you still not back the over market at kick off, as per what you said earlier? Or would that be an ideal time to split some of your stake up
So basically we are betting that there will be a goal in the first half? What is the difference if we just do that instead of complicating things and calling them "trading"?
Because when trading, you can trade out your bet at anytime reducing losses. Say I back £50 on over 2.5, and there isn't a goal after a certain amount of time, I can trade out and only lose a couple of pounds rather than the full 50. However, if there is a goal say after 20 minutes, I'll be around £20 up if I trade out.
There are several components to sports picks. One resource I discovered which succeeds in merging these is the Simple Sports Goldmine (google it if you're interested) without a doubt the most incredible system i've heard of.look at the amazing info .
excellent video,i too have been struggling with the horse markets and like you I am more leaning over to the football trading side,I think that's where my edge is,My perfect world would be horses in the afternoon and football at night,but I haven't got enough time or space in my tiny brain..love your depth and different approaches to matches they do open my eyes to other trades thak you and can't wait for the next vid..
Do we need an betting exchange only? Or we can play this strategy on Pinnacle or Sbobet as well in searching of better odds? So in the case of cash out, we placed a live bet on opposite outcome.
I am unfamilar with this . He does not explain what this is "remove liability and have a free bet". Why are you given a free bet and under what circumstances. Is this some offer that is truggered as soon as the price goes below your entry point? I really have no idea
Just one thing I'd like to ask. You say that to make a long term profit you need to beat the market. But you also say that the market is right in virtually all cases. So it seems to me that, based on that, it would be virtually impossible to make a long term profit, except by patiently waiting for the very rare event that the market is wrong - and being able to identify that fact as well. Am I missing something? Thanks.
Hey David, the markets are pretty efficient but they are not right 100% of the time and they are also not efficient 100% from minute 0 to minute 90. There are lots of variables to consider in football so our job is to be patient and spot an opportunity where the markets don't look right and exploit it with our chosen strategy. It is much easier to find these in-play than it would be pre-game.
Great Video. When you use thise strategy, when you usualy go in?Guess whatching game if match is a good value near 10-15 is a good time too get in. You prefere split your stake by the time or by the tick? in what %? Like 15% evry 10 minute? or 15% evry 10 tick? thx
Hi. How do I see those market graphs and charts? The ones showing the market activity graph for the odds moving? I can't find the link / page for them on betfair.
Yes that's what I've been doing I've just started experimenting. I've also been waiting for games that are 0-0 after 80 mins and backing under 0.5 goals. I find that the odds come in quite dramatically. In one game the price was 2.12 to back under 0.5 goals at 80 mins and at 85 mins it was at 1.4. I'm finding that in a lot of Asian games there are not many goals between 60-80 mins and have been laying over 1.5 goals at 60 mins if the game is 0-0 and exiting at 80 mins. Usually no goal has been scored. I've been using very small stakes so I've not been profiting much but it's all adding up
I've heard some getting in in the second half - maybe half the stake after 50 minutes, second half of your stake 65 minutes then trade out for a loss if no goal after 75 minutes. Do you think it's better to get in first or second half?
thanks for the video, i was hoping you would do a video about trading the over 2.5 market. I have a question. would you suggest trading the unders for 15-20 minutes from kick off, cashing out and then doing the overs?
Hi Anty god, Yes this can actually work very well. The perfect football trading match can be one that starts slow and produces a profit on the unders then picks up around 20 minutes. Liverpool-Roma was a big example of this sort of match.
i managed to use unders to give me some leeway in the second half waiting for Arsenal's inevitable goal. i only bet with £10s so i had a couple of quid from unders by half time, took longer than normal to get that as the odds didn't drop as quickly as i thought as the match was tight and the red card. anyway, jumped onto overs at 7, it quickly jumped to about ten, but then the goal came and i was in £8.50 profit. cashed out and did unders again once everything had settled and cashed out just before Real's goal. did unders again and cashed out with £11.50 ish, so over 100% percent profit, which was nice. thanks for the perfectly timed video :)
Thank you - your videos are brilliant. I had looked briefly at starting Betfair Trading having seen videos on other channels, which recommended the use of software. I felt at that time that it was not for me as I didn't have the time to work through it. Having watched quite a few of your videos and played around with small stakes, I feel that your way might be the way forward for me to make a start at Betfair trading. I'm looking forward to learning more and experimenting as I watch your videos. Thank you for making it so clear.
I have given up trading because it wasn’t going well. I have lost quite a lot of money due to football being so unpredictable. If I made profit, I was destined to lose it plus my own money in the near future, but damn your videos are still very entertaining
Hey Speakdahtruth, sometimes it can be good to take a break but don't give up hope yet. Quick tip: Only get involved with a match you are watching where it just seems "obvious" about what is going to happen. Those matches which really scream goals or scream that a team is dominant. Not every match is like this but look out for them and only get involved in those.
Why not just lay over 2.5 goals just before kick off, and as long as there is not a very early goal just back at the higher price. The first live example you showed. You could have layed at 2.10 before the off and after just 10 minutes cashed out at 2.54
Hi Ben. Love the vidoes, you have a knack for this. Can I ask, how about trading the under 2.5 market pre kick off, giving it 10 to 15 minutes then trade out, and in that time the over 2.5 could have risen, then to trade into that market? Am I missing something here or is that something people do?
Hello IMPORTANT QUESTION i have been football trading for a short time now I made a consistent off the bat average of £150 a day with only a £200 steak for three weeks and now i am on a bit of a losing streak so before sacked all my winnings back in the exchange i have decided to seek the advice of the pros i have no experience and have been betting using sofascore for prematch analytics and betfair inplay statistics. i have done some research and it seems that i am doing most things correct but my trading is full of rookie mistakes witch i have the foresight to see will only send me broke in the long run so i need a bit of advice. 1. I dont know the first thing about football so could you point me in the direction of the best comprehensive channel to watch the games rather than relying on the inplay betfair stats and grow my football knowledge 2. Can you recommend any good books to help me move forward 3. Is there a good course to invest in
True but if you put the whole stake in at once and the first goal doesn’t come soon, you’ll be chipping away at profits or even making a loss. Dripping stakes in and out is the best way
Why do you have to take a loss why don't you at 60 minute cover your trade with a counter trade ..For instance at 60 minutes if it 0-0 take out a underr o.5 trade with a trailing correct score insurance.Just a thought.....Great videos though..Can I ask a question please ..I have spent thousands of pounds with Tony Langlais and Pauline Although I haven't got the dashio method yet ..I have come away feeling a little disappointed especially spending money I didn't have ..Somehow hoping to find a method I could use Regular profit but this doesn't seem to be the case ..Laying the favourite and using the correct score line in halftime seems to work ...Do you have a system I kid you use or even pay for that will help me ...I have known people to make millions on spread betting tennis...If you said £2000 I could pay you monthly I have already spent nearly 4000 on systems that are not verygood And the system is seen to fail very quickly if two consecutive goals come in together ...many thanks john
Just wonderful, been searching for "betfair trading community" for a while now, and I think this has helped. You ever tried - Nanroocer Trading Tiptronics - (search on google ) ? Ive heard some decent things about it and my mate got cool results with it.
Christian F. I despair when I see supposed professionals unable to understand the components that go to make a price on probability. On the logic of 'the price just keeps getting better', you are best backing three goals on a nil score match during injury time.
STL. '''The price will increase until a goal is scored, you have to aim to be on the right side of it.'' That is not trading, it is just gambling. You are trying to guess when a goal will be scored. Closing out a bet in play does not make it trading. There is a blur at the edges of what is trading and what is gambling, one that the banks crossed before the crash as they moved from trading to wholesale gambling with enormous stakes. A trader is looking for value in a price so he can make a small turn. A gambler is looking to be 'right' about event outcomes. You are doing the latter. Moving the event outcome to a point that happens inplay rather than the end of the match does not alter that.
Michael. You're quite right, the over and under will move in tandem. It's like comparing backing heads with selling tails. The problem with both is that the prices are pretty accurate statistics wise. Whether you are holding the position for the match or looking to close out after a number of minutes, you are still up against probability of goals being scored. The price is only value if you think it is mis-priced compared to probability. Back a coin toss at 2.1 or sell it at 1.9 and you will make money in the long term because you have a price that beats probability which is 2. It's how bookmakers make money..by selling you a terrible price. In sport the price is subjective but everybody else including the professionals and bookmakers have access to the same stats and team information as you do and the prices reflect long term probability allied to Betfair / bookmaker algorithms reacting to demand.. Big matches are liquid but smaller ones are less liquid with big spreads. That means it takes longer to get the desired price matched and the extra time inevitably puts you on the wrong side of profit for time versus probability. Bookmakers are not stupid So eventually we all end up asking your last question (or should)..why bother backing after kick off at all. (or selling). You have to find your own niche and strategy.Some people avidly watch the match for quick opportunities in quiet periods or pressure that might lead to a goal but play ebbs and flows, chances come from nowhere or repeatedly come to nothing. Maybe some people are good at it. My background is in finance so I am looking for crowd behaviour. Over time you see patterns of behaviour. You can trade markets pre-match or during half time when only demand and news affects price, not play. In the early days of Betfair I had a nice niche in Total Goals. Gamblers love the jackpot and would push the price of high scores on favoured teams down near kick off before sitting down to watch the match. So I would load up on Friday night as bookmaker funds went in and sell at 2.30 on Saturday. The Betfair site would often crash near 3pm because of the sudden rush of gamblers putting last minute bets on. Happy days. 9 out of ten would go my way. The bookmaker algorithms changed behaviour from one season to the next and I had to find a way to beat their behaviour and the gamblers. Great fun. One year they reversed and started selling very low. So I sold Thursday to Friday night and closed out Saturday mornings. Bought extra and sold in the afternoon. I really miss that fun. These days it's bloody hard work finding opportunities. Crowd overreaction is similar to that which you see in stock markets, pushing prices too far with over pessimism or over optimism. The big swing market is cricket. As a natural contrarian, I sell when the crowd thinks they are backing a certainty.and rush to the bottom price. But cricket has swings even if the trend continues. Tennis is very popular too but I can't say I have ever mastered that one. Another way is to compare the football goal probability price to a financial future. As time value erodes, the price move accelerates. If you sell below 2 and be out before 2.3 you can find quietish games where you can keep ahead of the curve in the long term. As long as you use big games with liquid prices. Ultimately you have to answer your question yourself. YOU have to find a way to get ahead of the curve. Am I going to tell you how I do in smaller markets? NOT ON YOUR NELLY!!! Because in illiquid markets you will be competing for my business and shift the price. Telling people will destroy the opportunity. I can talk about the total goals because it's now a dead market. It's bad enough with Betfair algorithms taking the lions share. NOBODY is going to tell you. Which is why all you find online is people who sell you courses in stating the obvious or talking of 'trading' strategies which have no apparent benefit over probability. It's hard work, time consuming but rewarding if you get it right. If you just want a hobby you can soon learn a few tricks that will return a few pounds. As they used to say at school ...compare and contrast. It starts with watching what happens to prices and why they move.
I think the aim is to find a game where goals come the first half so the probability of a goal at any point within say a 30 minute period may be higher than others, if in at ten minutes be out at half time, the algorithmic tendancies of the software mean that once a goal is scored often it falls 20% the wrong side of value to attract buyers into the market, as you are doing the opposite the price movement is what makes people buy your bet off you... the price gets higher a time goes on can be proven as the figures do move as the markets want to attract buyers to gain their commision, for every buy there is a sell and for every sell there is a buy. It is up to the market makers to make a market.
If you'd like to take your football trading to the next level and want the short cut then there is an answer. Ultimate Football Trading premium course is coming soon, more info: sportstradinglife.com/ytwaitinglist
Don’t forget guys you don’t have to enter in first half in all the top leagues there are more goals scored in 2nd halves of games!
You also have the option to enter at half time and it’s not restricted to over 2.5 if 0-0 you can use 1.5 for example or if the game has a few goals already you can use over 3.5 etc so many ways to skin a cat and this video gives you great pointers and ideas to get you started.After time you get more experience and then you can add you own ideas if you want to :)
I really like your take.on things. Are u on Twitter so I can follow.you
Hi mate I don’t have a twitter account. I do look on there and see what this guy and his followers tweet though. I prefer to read tweets rather than do my own. :)
Been looking at it. Waiting to half time or nearly, if its 1-0 - 0-1 Jump in on the over 3.5 when liability is low like 1.20 - 1.10 . time that occurs varies.. then another pop on the 2.5 over about 77 mins.. can run these to the end as the losses are tiny and the pressure cooker of the match is on with one team having to go for a goal. Plus you are never on a 0-0 .. !
to remove liability from no goals, you could just bet a small amoount on correct score 0-0
Problem with that is you place that bet before kick off without even knowing if you’ll be entering a overs trade. You could just end up with a lost 0-0 bet before getting involved in overs
ENTAO VOCÊ SENAO HOUVER GOLOS SAI AO INTERVALO?
Hello thank you very mutch for all videos, very clear to understand. Even to someone like I with no experience in trade.
How do you choose when to get in on the action? Do you watch all the games you bet on and bet on feel as to which game will score quickly or do you solely look at stats?
Lay the draw second hals and back the dominant team are the best and all you need to trade.. Gives you the incentive to follow a match from start to end
Coming from a matched betting experience, I decided to try football trading. I used this method on my first weekend of trading and I managed to profit £420 and I felt invincible. I repeated the same process again over a fortnight with same stakes, same big high scoring teams and managed to lose all the profit :( Sucks ! Hopefully I get better
hey ben interesting vid you recommend removing my liability! being a newbie how would i do that??
yeah they need to fuckin explain that
You lay ( the red button) a bet to remove your liability, after the goal goes in...
Betfair will show you the change in potential profits before you place...
If you do this and there is under 2.5 goals you will not lose your original stake...
However your profits will be less if there are over 2.5 goals
If the stats say that the match is going to be a goal fest then you might want to take a risk and let it run or trade out half your liability (original stake)
Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge. At first, i had no idea what betfair trading was and today you've taught me almost everything... Thanks so much for such easy videos. Whats your favourite method of trading? I prefer trading the under 2.5 market cause its alwasy dropping and giving quick profits..
It's about picking the right game not about the betting,pick 2 evenly matched sides without top goal scorers.you got a better chance of no earl goal and losing 3 quarters of your stake
Have you a video on btts
i have seen the undesrs rise 15 to 20 ticks many times at the beginning of a match jump on it theirs a goal coming
Another top video. You’ve made me watch a football game completely differently now👍
Simon Taylor This is just superb, been searching for "free betfair betting bots" for a while now, and I think this has helped. You ever tried - Nanroocer Trading Tiptronics - (search on google ) ? Ive heard some interesting things about it and my colleague got cool results with it.
Hello. When is 1 goal till HT u make cash out? If yes then is same to bet over 0.5 goal HT
except the odds are much lower on the o.5 goal HT market than the over 2.5 goal market.
"Look for home favourites that tend to score in the 1st half". In my opinion as an Odds Compiler of 8 years you'd be better off looking for home favourites that tend to create a lot of chances in the first half. There is a big element of randomness to the finish itself and this is a good opportunity to exploit the market (for example if a favourite hasn't scored many goals in the first half in recent games but actually had a tonne of chances to) that could mean great value on betting
Hi James, yes this would be an even better approach. But perhaps a little bit trickier to find precise stats on, especially since judgement would have to be used about what is a "good" chance or not. :)
I understand you are just working with what you have (i.e no model) and I'm sure you yourself have been successful in making money, but I think it's a little unfair to give people advice like this, which will ultimately lead to more losses than wins in the long run, we just don't hear about the losses. I've been in this business a long time at a company with an actual algorithm for finding value and mug betting like this is the reason we make money. I also saw your under 2.5 video which is equally ridiculous with the greatest of respect going by shots on and off target and possession is just not enough. Bookies know what they are doing, they have algorithms too. It is certainly possible to beat the bookies, but not without a model of your own.
use sqwaka
So if as in the example you find a match where the under odds are very low and over odds 3.0+ would you still not back the over market at kick off, as per what you said earlier? Or would that be an ideal time to split some of your stake up
So basically we are betting that there will be a goal in the first half? What is the difference if we just do that instead of complicating things and calling them "trading"?
Because when trading, you can trade out your bet at anytime reducing losses. Say I back £50 on over 2.5, and there isn't a goal after a certain amount of time, I can trade out and only lose a couple of pounds rather than the full 50. However, if there is a goal say after 20 minutes, I'll be around £20 up if I trade out.
There are several components to sports picks. One resource I discovered which succeeds in merging these is the Simple Sports Goldmine (google it if you're interested) without a doubt the most incredible system i've heard of.look at the amazing info .
Which do you think is the best. to use strategies trading over 2.5 Goals, or to use strategies to trade under 2.5 goals?
Many Thanks
Laura.
@conor j shammy Hi Conor, have you tried this exact strategy and stick to it that is show in the video? For how long, what is your sample size?
Should you pay attention to the teams home and away form or just overall?
Thank you very much amazing videos...you spend your time to share your knowledge with others amazing!!
What type of gift in the link..?
excellent video,i too have been struggling with the horse markets and like you I am more leaning over to the football trading side,I think that's where my edge is,My perfect world would be horses in the afternoon and football at night,but I haven't got enough time or space in my tiny brain..love your depth and different approaches to matches they do open my eyes to other trades thak you and can't wait for the next vid..
Hello, I'm a bit late here, but I just wanted to ask do you back or lay the over 2.5 goals score line?
Back
Do we need an betting exchange only? Or we can play this strategy on Pinnacle or Sbobet as well in searching of better odds? So in the case of cash out, we placed a live bet on opposite outcome.
I am unfamilar with this . He does not explain what this is "remove liability and have a free bet". Why are you given a free bet and under what circumstances. Is this some offer that is truggered as soon as the price goes below your entry point? I really have no idea
Just one thing I'd like to ask. You say that to make a long term profit you need to beat the market. But you also say that the market is right in virtually all cases. So it seems to me that, based on that, it would be virtually impossible to make a long term profit, except by patiently waiting for the very rare event that the market is wrong - and being able to identify that fact as well. Am I missing something? Thanks.
Hey David, the markets are pretty efficient but they are not right 100% of the time and they are also not efficient 100% from minute 0 to minute 90.
There are lots of variables to consider in football so our job is to be patient and spot an opportunity where the markets don't look right and exploit it with our chosen strategy. It is much easier to find these in-play than it would be pre-game.
Ok thanks. That must take a lot of experience, and I've never really watched football in the past, so I guess I have a lot to learn.
Great Video. When you use thise strategy, when you usualy go in?Guess whatching game if match is a good value near 10-15 is a good time too get in. You prefere split your stake by the time or by the tick? in what %? Like 15% evry 10 minute? or 15% evry 10 tick? thx
I discovered a useful compilation of videos that may help on Alchemy Hasty Fixer
Hi. How do I see those market graphs and charts? The ones showing the market activity graph for the odds moving? I can't find the link / page for them on betfair.
Just click on the chart icon next to the team in the market.
As a total newbie, could you not lay over 2.5 goals and cash out when the back odds drift? Just a thought!
Yes that's what I've been doing I've just started experimenting. I've also been waiting for games that are 0-0 after 80 mins and backing under 0.5 goals. I find that the odds come in quite dramatically. In one game the price was 2.12 to back under 0.5 goals at 80 mins and at 85 mins it was at 1.4. I'm finding that in a lot of Asian games there are not many goals between 60-80 mins and have been laying over 1.5 goals at 60 mins if the game is 0-0 and exiting at 80 mins. Usually no goal has been scored. I've been using very small stakes so I've not been profiting much but it's all adding up
8:00 which website is that?
Soccerway.com.
I've heard some getting in in the second half - maybe half the stake after 50 minutes, second half of your stake 65 minutes then trade out for a loss if no goal after 75 minutes.
Do you think it's better to get in first or second half?
thanks for the video, i was hoping you would do a video about trading the over 2.5 market. I have a question. would you suggest trading the unders for 15-20 minutes from kick off, cashing out and then doing the overs?
Hi Anty god,
Yes this can actually work very well. The perfect football trading match can be one that starts slow and produces a profit on the unders then picks up around 20 minutes. Liverpool-Roma was a big example of this sort of match.
cool thanks. I'll try that out this evening. wish me luck ;)
i managed to use unders to give me some leeway in the second half waiting for Arsenal's inevitable goal. i only bet with £10s so i had a couple of quid from unders by half time, took longer than normal to get that as the odds didn't drop as quickly as i thought as the match was tight and the red card. anyway, jumped onto overs at 7, it quickly jumped to about ten, but then the goal came and i was in £8.50 profit. cashed out and did unders again once everything had settled and cashed out just before Real's goal. did unders again and cashed out with £11.50 ish, so over 100% percent profit, which was nice. thanks for the perfectly timed video :)
Thank you - your videos are brilliant. I had looked briefly at starting Betfair Trading having seen videos on other channels, which recommended the use of software. I felt at that time that it was not for me as I didn't have the time to work through it. Having watched quite a few of your videos and played around with small stakes, I feel that your way might be the way forward for me to make a start at Betfair trading. I'm looking forward to learning more and experimenting as I watch your videos. Thank you for making it so clear.
Sheila Forde
U r extremely beautiful plz txt me on whats Aap. +61470606734
@@parramattaeels7928 Lol
Bitcointradingtoday
That’s true she is beautiful no doubt
@@parramattaeels7928 This is a sports trading video not a dating forum... can't see her going for you though m8 lol
I think the advantage of using software is you can use practice mode, not sure you can do that directly on Betfair
Perfect strategy for tonight's A-league match, good on ya mate 👍
Im betting on A league tomorrow :D:D
@@malcolmwasher2308 true but many Aussies phone in and place their bets over the phone
Why u/o 2.5 and not 1.5 or 3.5?
I have given up trading because it wasn’t going well. I have lost quite a lot of money due to football being so unpredictable. If I made profit, I was destined to lose it plus my own money in the near future, but damn your videos are still very entertaining
Hey Speakdahtruth, sometimes it can be good to take a break but don't give up hope yet. Quick tip: Only get involved with a match you are watching where it just seems "obvious" about what is going to happen. Those matches which really scream goals or scream that a team is dominant. Not every match is like this but look out for them and only get involved in those.
I think instead that it's very predictable, specially live.
Why not just lay over 2.5 goals just before kick off, and as long as there is not a very early goal just back at the higher price. The first live example you showed. You could have layed at 2.10 before the off and after just 10 minutes cashed out at 2.54
What % of games that are 0-0 at half time , achieve o2.5 goals ?
Depends on the league
how do you remove the liability to make it a free bet?
Consult a lawyer
Hi Ben. Love the vidoes, you have a knack for this.
Can I ask, how about trading the under 2.5 market pre kick off, giving it 10 to 15 minutes then trade out, and in that time the over 2.5 could have risen, then to trade into that market? Am I missing something here or is that something people do?
Hi love the video can someone please explain liability to me in more detail thanks
Liability is basically the money that is at risk in the bet or trade.
Hello.Check all the videos they are awsome.When come some videos about some tennis strategies,cant wait?
Hopefully over the summer when football winds down :)
Will wait for it :) .Tennis is the best :)
Hi, can you plz make videos on other sports too? esp tennis and cricket? Thanks
Hey John Terry, definitely in the pipe line!
Hello IMPORTANT QUESTION i have been football trading for a short time now I made a consistent off the bat average of £150 a day with only a £200 steak for three weeks and now i am on a bit of a losing streak so before sacked all my winnings back in the exchange i have decided to seek the advice of the pros i have no experience and have been betting using sofascore for prematch analytics and betfair inplay statistics. i have done some research and it seems that i am doing most things correct but my trading is full of rookie mistakes witch i have the foresight to see will only send me broke in the long run so i need a bit of advice.
1. I dont know the first thing about football so could you point me in the direction of the best comprehensive channel to watch the games rather than relying on the inplay betfair stats and grow my football knowledge
2. Can you recommend any good books to help me move forward
3. Is there a good course to invest in
Hello am just in the same challenge man, did you get any help?
surely if you only put a percentage of your stake on a game and theres a quick goal you havnt achieved full value
True but if you put the whole stake in at once and the first goal doesn’t come soon, you’ll be chipping away at profits or even making a loss. Dripping stakes in and out is the best way
This looks good but relies on finding value and thats the hard part and is the same for any trade.
could you not just lay 2.5 goals at the start and look to get out at around 10 minutes
if a goal is scored in that time you will be trouble where if you back it and a goal is scored in 10 minutes you can trade out. Back high lay low
Mate. Great video. Please try and start pronouncing 'th' rather than 'f'.
It detracted my attention from the vid.
Top advice. Thank you.
Why do you have to take a loss why don't you at 60 minute cover your trade with a counter trade ..For instance at 60 minutes if it 0-0 take out a underr o.5 trade with a trailing correct score insurance.Just a thought.....Great videos though..Can I ask a question please ..I have spent thousands of pounds with Tony Langlais and Pauline Although I haven't got the dashio method yet ..I have come away feeling a little disappointed especially spending money I didn't have ..Somehow hoping to find a method I could use Regular profit but this doesn't seem to be the case ..Laying the favourite and using the correct score line in halftime seems to work ...Do you have a system I kid you use or even pay for that will help me ...I have known people to make millions on spread betting tennis...If you said £2000 I could pay you monthly I have already spent nearly 4000 on systems that are not verygood And the system is seen to fail very quickly if two consecutive goals come in together ...many thanks john
lol
Just wonderful, been searching for "betfair trading community" for a while now, and I think this has helped. You ever tried - Nanroocer Trading Tiptronics - (search on google ) ? Ive heard some decent things about it and my mate got cool results with it.
"This price is only going to get better as time goes on" - No, it really isnt. If a goal is scored the price will drop alarmingly.
And that is pretty much the point of the video. The price will increase until a goal is scored, you have to aim to be on the right side of it.
Christian F. I despair when I see supposed professionals unable to understand the components that go to make a price on probability. On the logic of 'the price just keeps getting better', you are best backing three goals on a nil score match during injury time.
STL. '''The price will increase until a goal is scored, you have to aim to be on the right side of it.'' That is not trading, it is just gambling. You are trying to guess when a goal will be scored. Closing out a bet in play does not make it trading. There is a blur at the edges of what is trading and what is gambling, one that the banks crossed before the crash as they moved from trading to wholesale gambling with enormous stakes. A trader is looking for value in a price so he can make a small turn. A gambler is looking to be 'right' about event outcomes. You are doing the latter. Moving the event outcome to a point that happens inplay rather than the end of the match does not alter that.
Michael. You're quite right, the over and under will move in tandem. It's like comparing backing heads with selling tails. The problem with both is that the prices are pretty accurate statistics wise. Whether you are holding the position for the match or looking to close out after a number of minutes, you are still up against probability of goals being scored. The price is only value if you think it is mis-priced compared to probability. Back a coin toss at 2.1 or sell it at 1.9 and you will make money in the long term because you have a price that beats probability which is 2. It's how bookmakers make money..by selling you a terrible price. In sport the price is subjective but everybody else including the professionals and bookmakers have access to the same stats and team information as you do and the prices reflect long term probability allied to Betfair / bookmaker algorithms reacting to demand.. Big matches are liquid but smaller ones are less liquid with big spreads. That means it takes longer to get the desired price matched and the extra time inevitably puts you on the wrong side of profit for time versus probability. Bookmakers are not stupid So eventually we all end up asking your last question (or should)..why bother backing after kick off at all. (or selling).
You have to find your own niche and strategy.Some people avidly watch the match for quick opportunities in quiet periods or pressure that might lead to a goal but play ebbs and flows, chances come from nowhere or repeatedly come to nothing. Maybe some people are good at it. My background is in finance so I am looking for crowd behaviour. Over time you see patterns of behaviour. You can trade markets pre-match or during half time when only demand and news affects price, not play. In the early days of Betfair I had a nice niche in Total Goals. Gamblers love the jackpot and would push the price of high scores on favoured teams down near kick off before sitting down to watch the match. So I would load up on Friday night as bookmaker funds went in and sell at 2.30 on Saturday. The Betfair site would often crash near 3pm because of the sudden rush of gamblers putting last minute bets on. Happy days. 9 out of ten would go my way. The bookmaker algorithms changed behaviour from one season to the next and I had to find a way to beat their behaviour and the gamblers. Great fun. One year they reversed and started selling very low. So I sold Thursday to Friday night and closed out Saturday mornings. Bought extra and sold in the afternoon. I really miss that fun. These days it's bloody hard work finding opportunities.
Crowd overreaction is similar to that which you see in stock markets, pushing prices too far with over pessimism or over optimism. The big swing market is cricket. As a natural contrarian, I sell when the crowd thinks they are backing a certainty.and rush to the bottom price. But cricket has swings even if the trend continues. Tennis is very popular too but I can't say I have ever mastered that one. Another way is to compare the football goal probability price to a financial future. As time value erodes, the price move accelerates. If you sell below 2 and be out before 2.3 you can find quietish games where you can keep ahead of the curve in the long term. As long as you use big games with liquid prices.
Ultimately you have to answer your question yourself. YOU have to find a way to get ahead of the curve. Am I going to tell you how I do in smaller markets? NOT ON YOUR NELLY!!! Because in illiquid markets you will be competing for my business and shift the price. Telling people will destroy the opportunity. I can talk about the total goals because it's now a dead market. It's bad enough with Betfair algorithms taking the lions share. NOBODY is going to tell you. Which is why all you find online is people who sell you courses in stating the obvious or talking of 'trading' strategies which have no apparent benefit over probability. It's hard work, time consuming but rewarding if you get it right. If you just want a hobby you can soon learn a few tricks that will return a few pounds. As they used to say at school ...compare and contrast. It starts with watching what happens to prices and why they move.
I think the aim is to find a game where goals come the first half so the probability of a goal at any point within say a 30 minute period may be higher than others, if in at ten minutes be out at half time, the algorithmic tendancies of the software mean that once a goal is scored often it falls 20% the wrong side of value to attract buyers into the market, as you are doing the opposite the price movement is what makes people buy your bet off you... the price gets higher a time goes on can be proven as the figures do move as the markets want to attract buyers to gain their commision, for every buy there is a sell and for every sell there is a buy. It is up to the market makers to make a market.