There's something I love about your videos. You don't actually give anything away in the real sense of giving away. But you leave just about enough information to figure things out on your own. I've modeled dozens of strategies employing concepts I've learned watching this channel. I hated you for it at the beginning, but in the end I found myself coming back for more cos I figured.....oh what the hell might just as well eat that frog.
Thanks Peter. The video was most hopeful. I for one would certainly like to see how the % chance is calculated. I had/have a 1.5 / 2.5 goals strategy that worked wonders on practice mode over the course of 50 games recorded ( if 0-0 back 1.5 on 55 mins with the hope of getting a goal before 77 mins or if 1 nil at HT back 2.5 with the same idea) As soon as I went on live mode - I couldn't hit the back side of a cow. This info might help! Thanks
Great video, Peter! I'd just like to know if I am using this info correctly. Basically I have followed your method for the home/away specific (time 12:20 in video) I have put the final number for each team e.g 1.46 (Crystal P & 0.96 for Newcastle into a poisson dist for 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7 goals and its given me a percent for each outcome. Is this a correct way to get my price for Over/Under 2.5 goals or not?
Thank you for all the great content and all the tips.... would be amazing to learn how percentages work... thank you again for all the work you put in 😇🙏
@@betangeltv No problem.I like to ask a qustion regarding the taking under consideration missing players.Is it the right aprouch lets say if team A or B is missing a player ho scores alot over the corse of the season to look how many of the goals hi scored home and away and to remove that goal amout from the model?Is it the right aprouch to do it like that or im simplifying it ?For example lets say Salah is not playing for Lilverpool this weekend.Hi has 15 goals this season.If lets say 6 are at home is it good to remove 6 goals from the model?
@@betangeltv One more thing i like to ask if is not a problem. If we aply this model to the current form of a team, is it better to look the form for the last 5-6 total games or the form of the last 5-6 games home/away?Thanks in advance.
Hi Pete so why you didn't divide the overage number of goals for both teams by two at the end of calculating for exp : Liverpool 2 + Leeds 1 = 3 ( dont yo have to divide 3 by 2 at the end to find out overage goals for 2 teams together? ) Regards Dennis
thank you peter. I've definitely learned some things from watching your videos. what exactly I don't know but my recent football trading has been going well and you must take some credit for that as I've watched about 10 hours of your stuff in the past year or two
Thank you for valuable content. Can you please make a video explaining sample size and its relevance to odds compilation? - When data sample becomes statistically irrelevant and creates "noise"? - What data to use at the beginning of season when there is no current track record? Kind regards
It's probably worth doing a video on that as these factors are important. This is where a lot of judgement comes into it however and where a lot of models diverge.
Thank you for the video, I am interested in seeing how to calculate the percentage of 0-0, and hence calculate percentage of a match not being 0-0. If you look at football match odds on a general bookmaker the odds on a match not being 0-0 maybe 1.05 for example, and on the exchange it would be 1.07 (which is 40% better odds). Another note, have you gathered any data for the remaining 9/10 premier league games that were played behind closed doors, did this give a better chance of the away team getting a result, or were more goals/less goals scored in a game?
definitely be interested but as you said its only a guide but seeing if its a value bet is very worthwhile (only 1 goal Leicester v Man City) and i bet the odds would be shorter than they should have been especially in the 1st half of the game
At this level in this sport results are going to be wildly variable. That's just the nature of football. So any value plays out over time, rather than any one particular day.
Okay so there is a match today, Koln vs Dusseldorf. Tell me if I'm doing this right. Koln have played 13 home games, they've scored 22 goals and conceded 18. Dusseldorf have played 13 away games, they scored 14 and conceded 27. So do I add all of those goals together and then divide by the 26 games? 22+18+14+27 = 81 then divide that by 26 = 3.11? Then after running it through the equation it works out at odds of 22.42 of 0-0? Is that right.
I live in Canada, I just start match betting. But I come across a lot of problem of finding bookkeepers offers . Since most of the betting sites are not available in Canada. Is there a way to make money without the free offers ?
Hi Peter! Great insight, but would the avg of h/a over the season and h/a last 6 matches add together and the avg of that number be a good angle? Do you have any tests that show this to be good or? Just a thought, maybe I will test lol
Hi Peter, in the example they are well into the season 26 matches, and that will without a doubt give you better numbers to work with, however if its the start of the season i.e 4 matches in, it will not give you the same accuracy, what do you do in that case, take last seasons number, problem here would be a lot of things might have changed, players/managers and so on, so how to use this in the start of the season. from one Southampton supporter to another :-) michael
Hi, Peter. I know it's an old video, and in the examples you show, the teams have played 13 each (home/away) if I was to test this going forward. What would you say is the minimum games a team should have played, 5 or 6 or 10? Thanks.
You have to approach the last 5-10 matches and cross-compare them to the teams they were playing to get some real guide on current form. Go beyond that, and it starts to lose its impact and mean reverts.
Thanks for the video as always. Would I be right in saying you are using Poisson distribution to work out the odds? Look forward to the second part of this video!
Interesting... but these calculations rely on data being available. If you are doing this at the beginning of the season, there will insufficient data hence the result may not be sufficiently reliable. Furthermore, using previous seasons' data maybe further contaminate the outcome. Any solution ?
That essentially is the skill in doing this. You would have models and adjustments to make to that model to take into account all of the above. You sort of work from a baseline and adjust from there. The start and end of the season can be a great time to find value in football betting markets as a result.
@@betangeltv I'm looking to go in depth percentage chance of BTTS how likely a team will score I know you have average goals per game but I also know I can go deeper like how likely a team will score ect
If you are looking for an edge, thats one of the places you will find it. There are quite a few factors you can examine but obviously working at deeper levels will yield more and more accurate results.
I’d be interested in seeing part two of this. I’ve used stats of my own via excel for years trying to find things that work but I’m always beat in end by the sheer randomness of football. The games my stats say should go over end without and the ones I left out goals galore. Could you do a video on how this happens? I’ve also tried automating but yet to find anything that works globally have you ever managed this or am I flogging a dead horse??
rancid sausage value is irrelevant if you can just keep picking winners as that’s the only true way to profit but when football is so random and the games based on stats too often go against what they imply then it almost impossible to be profitable and find value. Look at tonight’s championship for example out of all the games only one went over 1.5 and over 2.5. And the one that did was odds on for being under. This happens far more than it should yet is not predictable enough in any way to monetise that. I don’t think it’s ever possible to remove the element of luck from betting on football. Having used automation to find anything that works and failing after thousands of bets I’m hardly one to give up after “a few bad bets” i am just stating facts
@@daveb3141 As said already you cannot defy mathematics. If you are backing something with greater odds than it's probability then in the long run you will make money because you are betting for value.
Thank you Peter. Great informative content. You certainly very knowledgeable in this area. I would like to see part 2 of this great video. Thank you again.
I am trading on a lot of goals and find betfair do all the work for us, their o/u goals odds are pretty accurate but not a given .I have noticed when we get a avalanche of early goals this very rarely continues.
Second part would be nice. I've never really had a strategy. I do a daily double every day for the same amount. One home team @ evens and one away team @ 7/2. One a week will break even. I do ok.
i dont think iv ever seen 0-0 odds at 11.2 even in the south american leagues. i think betting 0-0 or under 0.5 goals prematch is a recipe for disaster. live betting is a totally different story of course. but great work anyway explaining the maths involved.
Brilliant video, I love the mathematics of football. I use this type of strategy every week. My maths say chance of NO goal is. Chelsea 6.79%, Burnley 7.07%, Palace 8.89%, Sheff Utd 8.21%, Southampton 3.65%, Leicester 3.02%. Thank you Peter.
There's something I love about your videos. You don't actually give anything away in the real sense of giving away. But you leave just about enough information to figure things out on your own. I've modeled dozens of strategies employing concepts I've learned watching this channel. I hated you for it at the beginning, but in the end I found myself coming back for more cos I figured.....oh what the hell might just as well eat that frog.
The 0-0 video would be wonderful Peter leading on from this. Brilliant video.
Thanks Peter, I’d love to see part 2
Thank you Peter, great to have these stats on soccer mystic. Please send the next video for percentages.
Thanks Peter. The video was most hopeful. I for one would certainly like to see how the % chance is calculated. I had/have a 1.5 / 2.5 goals strategy that worked wonders on practice mode over the course of 50 games recorded ( if 0-0 back 1.5 on 55 mins with the hope of getting a goal before 77 mins or if 1 nil at HT back 2.5 with the same idea) As soon as I went on live mode - I couldn't hit the back side of a cow. This info might help! Thanks
This is genius in its simplicity. Especially in combination with related strategies.
Great video, Peter! I'd just like to know if I am using this info correctly. Basically I have followed your method for the home/away specific (time 12:20 in video) I have put the final number for each team e.g 1.46 (Crystal P & 0.96 for Newcastle into a poisson dist for 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7 goals and its given me a percent for each outcome. Is this a correct way to get my price for Over/Under 2.5 goals or not?
at 11:41 - how do you derive 1.62 for goal supremacy - (44 / 28 = 1.57)
I'll try and have a look at the specifics at some point and check.
Great content as always peter! Would love to see part 2 of this, keep up the good work!
what's the calculation for the 1.62 please Peter. Many thanks.
That is Scored H minus Scored A Per Game. This is the Supremacy of the Home team.
Many thanks Peter, I would also like to see the follow up video on percentage conversion...
Sure i'm interested in part two i did notice that you can almost guess just by looking at the match odds.
Christopher Scott please explain how to do that?
Thank you for all the great content and all the tips.... would be amazing to learn how percentages work... thank you again for all the work you put in 😇🙏
Another prime example of your valuable insights. Very helpful video Peter, 'would really appreciate seeing 'the second video' - thanks.
Hi Peter, I would like to see the follow up video please, many thanks for your solid content, cheers
Brilliant video Peter very informative love the way you explain it all please keep them coming 👍
Thanks for your feedback.
As a nooby in the world of beting/trading i loved this video and i will be happy to see part 2 in the close future.
Thanks for your comment.
@@betangeltv No problem.I like to ask a qustion regarding the taking under consideration missing players.Is it the right aprouch lets say if team A or B is missing a player ho scores alot over the corse of the season to look how many of the goals hi scored home and away and to remove that goal amout from the model?Is it the right aprouch to do it like that or im simplifying it ?For example lets say Salah is not playing for Lilverpool this weekend.Hi has 15 goals this season.If lets say 6 are at home is it good to remove 6 goals from the model?
@@betangeltv One more thing i like to ask if is not a problem. If we aply this model to the current form of a team, is it better to look the form for the last 5-6 total games or the form of the last 5-6 games home/away?Thanks in advance.
Hi Pete so why you didn't divide the overage number of goals for both teams by two at the end of calculating for exp : Liverpool 2 + Leeds 1 = 3 ( dont yo have to divide 3 by 2 at the end to find out overage goals for 2 teams together? ) Regards Dennis
You can do it how you wish as it all averages out.
So would you then add your .4 to the home team's expected goals?
Great Video, what happens when the home team has played 10 games, and Away has play 9 games.how will the calculation be done
You just use different averages.
Peter i'd be very interested in seeing part 2. Many thanks.
thank you peter. I've definitely learned some things from watching your videos. what exactly I don't know but my recent football trading has been going well and you must take some credit for that as I've watched about 10 hours of your stuff in the past year or two
Remember me when u want to stake
That would be great. Presumably the calculation also works for other sports?
Hello,how you calculate percentage no goals please ,what is the formula please ,thank you very much
Watch the next video in the series.
@@betangeltv thank you
Thank you for valuable content. Can you please make a video explaining sample size and its relevance to odds compilation?
- When data sample becomes statistically irrelevant and creates "noise"?
- What data to use at the beginning of season when there is no current track record?
Kind regards
It's probably worth doing a video on that as these factors are important. This is where a lot of judgement comes into it however and where a lot of models diverge.
What happened to your masterclass on your website?
Thank you for the video, I am interested in seeing how to calculate the percentage of 0-0, and hence calculate percentage of a match not being 0-0. If you look at football match odds on a general bookmaker the odds on a match not being 0-0 maybe 1.05 for example, and on the exchange it would be 1.07 (which is 40% better odds).
Another note, have you gathered any data for the remaining 9/10 premier league games that were played behind closed doors, did this give a better chance of the away team getting a result, or were more goals/less goals scored in a game?
I plan to do a video on this in the near future.
definitely be interested but as you said its only a guide but seeing if its a value bet is very worthwhile (only 1 goal Leicester v Man City) and i bet the odds would be shorter than they should have been especially in the 1st half of the game
At this level in this sport results are going to be wildly variable. That's just the nature of football. So any value plays out over time, rather than any one particular day.
Okay so there is a match today, Koln vs Dusseldorf. Tell me if I'm doing this right. Koln have played 13 home games, they've scored 22 goals and conceded 18. Dusseldorf have played 13 away games, they scored 14 and conceded 27. So do I add all of those goals together and then divide by the 26 games? 22+18+14+27 = 81 then divide that by 26 = 3.11? Then after running it through the equation it works out at odds of 22.42 of 0-0? Is that right.
Yes please ,your workings through the percentages would be great. Thankyou.
Noted!
what happens when you have a strong away favourite, do you still swap the scores around ?
Where does Soccer Mystic pull its data from for the predicted odds?
Would like to see a further video as you mentioned
I live in Canada, I just start match betting. But I come across a lot of problem of finding bookkeepers offers . Since most of the betting sites are not available in Canada. Is there a way to make money without the free offers ?
Also very interested in seeing part 2. Thanks for all the great videos🙂
Thanks Peter, very helpful and yes I would love to see part 2
Hi Peter! Great insight, but would the avg of h/a over the season and h/a last 6 matches add together and the avg of that number be a good angle? Do you have any tests that show this to be good or? Just a thought, maybe I will test lol
I have this exact method in mind. I would hazard a guess and say that this would be better.
Hi Peter, in the example they are well into the season 26 matches, and that will without a doubt give you better numbers to work with, however if its the start of the season i.e 4 matches in, it will not give you the same accuracy, what do you do in that case, take last seasons number, problem here would be a lot of things might have changed, players/managers and so on, so how to use this in the start of the season.
from one Southampton supporter to another :-)
michael
Hi, Peter. I know it's an old video, and in the examples you show, the teams have played 13 each (home/away) if I was to test this going forward. What would you say is the minimum games a team should have played, 5 or 6 or 10? Thanks.
You have to approach the last 5-10 matches and cross-compare them to the teams they were playing to get some real guide on current form. Go beyond that, and it starts to lose its impact and mean reverts.
Lots of thanks. I'm interested in seeing part 2.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Thanks for the video as always. Would I be right in saying you are using Poisson distribution to work out the odds? Look forward to the second part of this video!
Can we download your spreadsheet?
This has been a very useful video. I really would liike to see the following videos. Cheers.
Hey love the video but I don't understand how you get goal per game please explain again but slower thanks
Unreal love to see part two what a legend
Interesting... but these calculations rely on data being available. If you are doing this at the beginning of the season, there will insufficient data hence the result may not be sufficiently reliable. Furthermore, using previous seasons' data maybe further contaminate the outcome. Any solution ?
That essentially is the skill in doing this. You would have models and adjustments to make to that model to take into account all of the above. You sort of work from a baseline and adjust from there. The start and end of the season can be a great time to find value in football betting markets as a result.
Kudos to you, Mr Peter. I would like to have the part 2 of this video
Where is the second part? :)))
On it's way
Great analysis. Love to see the 2nd part of this video
In this video is I wanted to work out the BTTS what averages would I take
You are just looking for the average number of goals.
@@betangeltv I'm looking to go in depth percentage chance of BTTS how likely a team will score I know you have average goals per game but I also know I can go deeper like how likely a team will score ect
If you are looking for an edge, thats one of the places you will find it. There are quite a few factors you can examine but obviously working at deeper levels will yield more and more accurate results.
Yes please,would love a follow up video.many thanks.👍
I’d be interested in seeing part two of this. I’ve used stats of my own via excel for years trying to find things that work but I’m always beat in end by the sheer randomness of football. The games my stats say should go over end without and the ones I left out goals galore. Could you do a video on how this happens? I’ve also tried automating but yet to find anything that works globally have you ever managed this or am I flogging a dead horse??
rancid sausage value is irrelevant if you can just keep picking winners as that’s the only true way to profit but when football is so random and the games based on stats too often go against what they imply then it almost impossible to be profitable and find value. Look at tonight’s championship for example out of all the games only one went over 1.5 and over 2.5. And the one that did was odds on for being under. This happens far more than it should yet is not predictable enough in any way to monetise that. I don’t think it’s ever possible to remove the element of luck from betting on football. Having used automation to find anything that works and failing after thousands of bets I’m hardly one to give up after “a few bad bets” i am just stating facts
@@daveb3141 As said already you cannot defy mathematics. If you are backing something with greater odds than it's probability then in the long run you will make money because you are betting for value.
2nd video would be great, it's been driving me crazy for a while.
Can you please predict south African lotto for this week
Sir i need your help
Thank you Peter. Great informative content. You certainly very knowledgeable in this area. I would like to see part 2 of this great video. Thank you again.
If you visit the playlist you should find all the follow up videos listed on there.
Hi , I will like to see the second part of this video . Thanks
What's the title of part 2 please?
Probably the best thing to do, is go through the playlist - ruclips.net/p/PL5EFDEF8385C5B599
Interesting Viedo..... part 2 with the calculation would be great
I think you may have discovered it already.
Great video. Let's have part 2 please. Thank you.
I am trading on a lot of goals and find betfair do all the work for us, their o/u goals odds are pretty accurate but not a given .I have noticed when we get a avalanche of early goals this very rarely continues.
You and Paulo Rebelo are the Best ...Thanks for your Sharing and Passion...
Thanks Peter. Could I see part two please
Hello sir how.I contact you
Yes would love to see the second half (pun intended!)
Best response yet. Let's hope it doesn't go to penalties.
@@betangeltv Well you never know after all football is a game of two halves.
Yes please .....content brilliant. Let's have the follow on video for the definitive number
Yes please Peter, would like to see the second part.
When you doing part 2 Peter? You said after Cheltenham. Hope you're OK.
Yes would love to see the second video please.
2nd vid please Peter
Excellent video as always - part two would be useful please
Second part would be nice. I've never really had a strategy. I do a daily double every day for the same amount. One home team @ evens and one away team @ 7/2. One a week will break even. I do ok.
Sounds decent but don't quite get it. Would you mind explaining in more detail? Appreciate it very much
When the next video
Very helpful Peter thank you, would love to see your % video
2nd video pls ?
Yes please for part 2!
I was a bit lost at the average per game calculation
i dont think iv ever seen 0-0 odds at 11.2 even in the south american leagues. i think betting 0-0 or under 0.5 goals prematch is a recipe for disaster. live betting is a totally different story of course. but great work anyway explaining the maths involved.
I look forward to seeing the second video.
I am glad I've found you on the web! Thank you for sharing such concepts, models and information.
Cheers from Rio de Janeiro!
Peter thanks for the good work but I wish you can also be posting your prediction as well.
Thank you soooooo much Peter and bet angel!i learned of you many thing,s.i wish you health .kourosh form Iran
GTO betting I like it need to start implementing this strat into my betting thanks for video
You're welcome.
Hi im from South Africa can u plz help me open a betfair account 😥😥😥😥😥😥😥😥
Yes I want to see the second video
super video. looking forward to part 2
Great lesson, to be continued soon it would be awesome, you are really an Angel...;) thanks again
Percentage video would be great Peter
Will do
Interested , Good Stuff.
Thanks for watching!
second vid yes please … I've wanted to see how to convert ratings into probabilities for ages!
Great video! I would be interested in you showing us more and taking this into extra time :D
I'm interested in the next episode!
Yes please part2 would be great
yea sure, am fully interested in the second video. thanks for this 1daful piece anyways.
Yes would like to see pt2
Love to see more please!
thank you. I would like to see part 2
Part Two please Peter. Thanks.
Brilliant video, I love the mathematics of football. I use this type of strategy every week. My maths say chance of NO goal is. Chelsea 6.79%, Burnley 7.07%, Palace 8.89%, Sheff Utd 8.21%, Southampton 3.65%, Leicester 3.02%. Thank you Peter.
How You do that calc?
Yes I'd like to see video please. I find stuff like this really interesting
i look forward to seeing the second video.