Unlocking the Truth: When Your Hand is Too Strong to Bluff
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- Опубликовано: 4 авг 2024
- Sometimes your hand is too strong to bluff. The caller today gets into a spot where Bart thinks it's one of those situations.
0:00 - Intro
1:17 - Preflop
2:11 - Flop
3:57 - Turn
4:46 - River
8:27 - Hero Decision
10:30 - Reveal
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At 1/3, river raise bluffs are pretty rare. I think the villain may just have been the wrong person to run this bluff against. If hero had a tight image, against an OMC type of villain, this move gwts throufh a decent amlunt of the time, even with the front door hearts missing.
The thing i don't like about this play is that front door hearts have missed (in small stakes players are more likely to call down when the obvious draw bricks out) also, most players at this level tend to raise over pairs or better (especially with the presence of a flush draw) so this is what the villain is probably thinking too and the only hand that improves on this river is 98 which is a very small portion on the heros range. Many players at this level have a hard time folding top pair, especially a good top pair as having the A kicker.
If hero's got 98 here, the old man is just going to pay him off. They never believe opponents get there with their draws.
To be fair, sims will almost always call down with top pair.
@@ryanzenner5393 that actually makes me feel better about some of my losing calls with top pair. Can't win em all, I guess.
To the caller: I've felt lately like I've been a victim of fancy play syndrome too. I'm fighting for every spot, trying to steal pots, trying to be creative, even at $5/10. And I keep falling back on a basic principle: People underbluff in general and underfold on the river. This is why thin value bets and raises along with exploitative folds are the key to mid-stakes hold 'em. Trust me. I struggle with this myself.
Pot odds on river are terrific, but likelihood hero is good is just stupid low. I think an exploitative fold is the right play. Jamming is second best.
The reason why I don't like jamming is so many people are just incapable of folding a set or even two pair here. They think, well, this is just the strongest hand I'm ever going to have in this spot; I have to call. In my experience, people just don't fold sets. Even with four-liners out there, some people just will not fold.
The fact that villain is a good player makes jamming a little bit better of a play. But you better be careful and make sure ALL of your actions make sense or a good player will sniff you out. There's just not a lot of 89s in hero's range. If I were villain with AT, this would look like a busted heart draw to me (although I'd never take his line.)
Caller described the other player in the CO as being the best player in the room. If he described main V as good, I missed it. Main V was the initial PFR, then flats hero's 3B, and donk-leads flop. That's such a weird yet strong line. The old guys who play that way hate folding any modestly-strong hand post-flop, because they play so few hands, and so infrequently raise pre, and very rarely call a 3B pre. There's just such a low likelihood that this V is ever folding, and hero has so little equity against V's better range on the turn that I'd just fold there. With the line V has taken, this river raise is getting called at such a high frequency that it can never be done as a bluff.
@@1vailchris I agree. I noticed my mistake of which player we were talking about after I already posted and was too lazy to edit it.
I think fold is the play. I don’t give a shit about pot odds here. They just aren’t enough. Hero is NEVER good.
However, this makes a set of Ts an auto shove, not just a 3.3x raise.
@@davidr1620 Absolutely. Against this V, I'm playing top set super-fast, right from the flop, on this board texture. Old man is going to have a lot of KK/QQ and even some AA in his range (because they never 4-bet pre unless it's a 4B jam). He might even have some AK he just doesn't want to fold right away. Depending on the board, I might play top 2 the same way (like if this flop was T93 rainbow). If I'm on a draw, I'm going to continue as long as I'm getting good odds. Once these old guys enter a pot, it takes a bolt of lightning to hit them before they'll fold anything, they play so few hands. If I make my hand on the river, I know they're going to pay me off, because they always think anyone under the age of 60 is trying to bluff them.
@@davidr1620 What street do you fold on here?
This was a strangely played hand by the hero. Preflop, he's definitely bluffing, but he got called by both players. He's probably not seen as a tight enough player to be pulling off this move preflop. It'd make more sense to call or fold than to bet, unless he thinks his image is that he's a very tight player and that he could actually get some folds with this bet.
Then on the flop and turn, he's calling bets where he knows that he doesn't beat any value (I don't think the villain is donking with A-7 or 9-9), so he's turned his bluff into a bluff catcher. And then when 9-8 gets there on the river, but front door hearts miss, and the ten stays as top pair, he decides to turn his hand back into a bluff again. Even though he probably doesn't have a tight enough image to get a bluff through.
I think that this is fancy play syndrome getting in the way of a player not understanding his table image or the mentality of his opponents. He's not seen as tight enough, and his opponent is far too much of a calling station for this to work. This would be a good play if he had a very tight image or his opponent was a nit that folds too easily to aggression.
Yasss! All of this. Great analysis.
Good example that no amount of GTO can prepare you for. You either know your man (will he call or fold top pair and how much will it take) or you dont.
Seems to me that from V's old-man perspective, hero's pre-flop 3B is repping a big pair, which would want to raise when V donk-leads on the flop. If hero doesn't raise flop and barrel turn (assuming V checks turn), his line here just isn't credible. V is never going to believe hero 3B pre with 89 or any hand that beats TPTK. If you're going to raise pre as a bluff, and assuming you planned to continue bluffing the flop with a c-bet, then you either need to raise this donk-lead, or just fold when you don't pick up equity on the turn. This river raise is insane.
It's 1/3. You're getting snapped off by AT or better all day. So this is basically better than calling or folding against exactly like JT-KT which should clearly not be taking this line anyway. Not to be rude, but getting into a $3000 pot at 1/3 even if it's a 3 way pot with one pair just has to be a mistake 99.9% of the time.
I'd have folded on the flop.
We finally agree on something!
Agreed! @@EllieBanks333
@@EllieBanks333 pretty sure that's the correct play. Against villain's sizing my guess is you need AT+ or a huge flush draw to call unless you've already spotted this villain making giant low equity bluffs straight into 2 players
@@eazeazeaz folding on the flop with top pair and backdoors is not the correct play lmao. It is a larger bet sizing, but you have to call at least one street with your ability to turn more equity. A fold on the turn is warranted though if the villain is never bluffing
I like hero’s thought process, but probably needs to jam to get this opponent off a bigger ten. Calling getting this price seems good too
V is never folding a better ten after taking this line.
When you're choosing bluffs you have to look at the equity difference between calling and bluff raising, T9 has a sliver of equity as a call, 87 is probably better to fold than call but has good bluffing properties blocking 77 and 98. You can also float the turn with J9 which is clearly never a call but can be used as a bluff. Maybe better to mostly not do this but if you want to once in a while to help your image it's good but you can't half ass it, gotta use max pressure with the all in.
This hand went off the rails preflop imo
3 betting 10 hi vs non thinking players
Then calling down hoping we are good
Very interesting discussion and thoughtful caller. Not sure about the emphasis on hearts in villain's range. Not many people lead with hearts there on this flop; they want to see a free card, or might get dramatic with a check-raise. A lead is often a set which fears a flush draw. Ultimately, I would fold pre. You are crazy deep. The EP open is very strong and heavy with suited Broadways. The best player in the entire room has called. You are not drawing to anything close to the nuts with your flushes and straights.
Love the bluff
Don't bluff the station.
It's a fold on flop! (3:46 potential and backdoor reason for call ).
Think the hand is fine from hero until river, facing small bet on river with top pair as played seems like a call or just fold. We can find some better spots for this later potentially. Also when bluff raising rivers with ~pot left, most spots should just be all in, as you dont want to lose value when you have good hands.
It's a raise or a fold. It's never a call. You're never winning here when old man coffee from UTG bets all 3 streets and takes a 1/3 sizing on river giving you 4 to 1 in pot odds. This can never be a call. Problem with Bart is he applies everything to higher stakes. This is 1/3. We need to look at it like 1/3. Not mush it in with guys who play 10/20 and how they play lmao. This is never a call on the river. What do you beat as played? Old man is NEVER showing up with a bluff given this line, so what do you beat? Absolutely nothing. This is NEVER a call. Raise or fold.
@@speakinfaxonly21 It's just a fold. On the turn. Raising the river is lighting money on fire.
@@speakinfaxonly21opponent isn’t an OMC, but your point still 100% stands. But a ton of bluffs that really make a lot of sense. It’s hard to see a total airball starting a three street bluff on the flop like AQ here since hero has nut advantage from the start, so most likely villain is connected SOMEHOW. With the awful kicker there’s not much left to say.
I blew my bank roll playing the 2 5 at that harras lol
at the turn my impression. Usually when I see people donk small on multiple streets they have a weak showdown value hand that they’re just trying to set their own price for. So here I’m mainly putting villain on A7, K7, 87, 76, 88, and 99. I know it’s multiway but that makes me think theyre more inclined to donk with a showdown hand for protection.
Granted I’m not a live player. This is what I see from weak players online so I could be way off. And with weak players there’s always a wild card factor. For all I know this is super nutted but like 2/3 of the time those are the hands I’m expecting
Something that isn’t mentioned here is that due to his very small river sizing, this 3x raise represents less than a pot sized bet. It’s hard to get a thinking player to fold top pair to less than a pot sized wager.
I played at Harrahs/NOLA maybe 6-7 times. Never disappointed. Good action and very bad players overall. Greetings from Sweden.
Okay so
1) If he is calling with the Ah this play is pretty doomed against that opponent (though I'd be more tempted to make thin value raises against them in the future).
2) I don't think the blockers are actually good here, yes you block 98s but as played it shouldn't really be that present and blocking top pair is kind of a problem when you want them to have weak top pairs.
3) Draws mostly missed, calling can't be too big a mistake here but if you are absolutely certain you are good less than 20% of the time folding is certainly better than raising.
Totally agree, except maybe poker theory says V shouldn't be calling with the Ah? I'm not sure what the GTO correct answer is to that one. It just seems to me that when V takes this line, he's just never folding on the river. Maybe if hero raised flop and barreled turn, V might be convinced TPTK is no good here. But if hero takes that line, I think we should just give up and check-back on river. Either way, this line from hero is terrible.
@@1vailchris I would also be more worried about the Ah than a solver might be, because I imagine AhXh is not supposed to bluff very often while most people will. SO I don't know if the solver says to actually call there or not but I'd be pretty tempted to fold regardless. (Also there is no way I'm ever calling the 3-bet pre-flop with ATo multiway but that is a side point).
So I guess in short I think hero should not make the play, but if villain somehow had me take over their hand at exactly that point it would have worked.
@@qazzaqstan I like the way your mind works. I wouldn't like calling the 3B pre with ATo either, and V's line here is one I wouldn't take. I think I misunderstood your original point about the Ah. I agree V should probably consider hero is less likely to be bluffing if the Ah is in V's hand, but V apparently doesn't think that deeply.
You and I might think about hero's possible bluffs, and not like having the Ah. Here, I just think V is happy having TPTK, and not trying to figure out what hands hero might have that would be bluffing here.
When you bluff you have to be able to tell a story that your opponent can understand. You don’t just get to jam and hope that he puts you on something. In this scenario it’s unlikely this guy would ever think you had a straight because that’s just not how players like him would play a straight draw. So with that in mind what are you really representing? Missed flush draws, which he can beat hence why he called
Agreed. It's why we can't try to rep sets as a bluff. Opponents never put you on a set. V is never going to give hero credit for a straight here. Old men don't like to fold post-flop, especially not when they take this line. He's calling off his whole stack if hero jams here.
I agree you can't rep a set after the 3-bet pre. As for "old men," he did say that it wasn't an OMC. Unless it's a blatantly obvious OMC, I'm finding that age stereotyping at the tab
les isn't doing me a lot of good. This villain was smart enough to see that the line didn't make a lot of sense. @@1vailchris
@@ZappaorPri That's fair. In my defense, my stereotyping at the tables takes into account a variety of factors, most importantly how I've actually seen an opponent play. I do notice the old men often seem to play very conservatively, don't like to fold, and rarely bluff. The generalization is so often true that the exceptions really stand out. I don't know if the V was smart enough to see the line didn't make sense, or if he was just never folding no matter what. I posted a comment as a reply to someone else here that I recently played a similar hand, in which I had TPTK, and my opponent rivered a very sneaky straight. As played, I couldn't find the fold when he raised my river bet, even though I knew this was an under-bluffed spot, so it's not just old men (or overly-aggro middle-aged men like me) who would call here. But these two examples show me that when you take this line, you have to have it. You can't be bluffing. I just think that's especially true against an older opponent who's taken such an aggressive line.
If hero has aces or kings, does he get to the river on this line ever? If he does, what does he do?
My answer to your first question is no. Second question is harder, but I'd say call mostly, raise sometimes.
I agree with hero's play, but sizing really should be bigger, specially knowing your opponent can overplay top pair.
He only has $500 more left.
I don't think the sizing is the issue here. If V is going to fold to a >5x jam, he should fold to a 3.3x raise. The problem is this V is just never folding after taking this line.
"... its 2k eff." --> Bart :"niiiiice" :D :D
I don’t think this play is too bad but only against a thinking player that can fold knowing that river raises are so underbluffed
I just played a similar hand. V opened from LP. I 3B from BB with AKs. He tanks, then calls. Flop is all low cards, two clubs and a heart. I c-bet. He calls. I turned TPTK with Ah (two flush draws possible now) and checked, to pot control. He checks back. River completed a straight draw, but the flushes bricked out. I bet, V raised, I called, putting him on a worse Ax hand or a missed flush. I didn't even see the straight draw had come in, just that the flush draws bricked. It can be hard to fold TPTK after having the lead when all the obvious draws brick, and your opponent suddenly gets aggressive on the river, especially if you have an aggro table image, but then you slowed down by checking an earlier street, and they check back. Opponents will assume you're bluffing so much that you have to call down wider. Same with hero's line here. His preflop 3B is repping an over-pair, which should raise V's donk-lead on this wet board.
No chance villian folds even if hero shoved all in..woulda just lost more. Was a dumb spot to bluff.
I like it and agree with the caller that in general this sizing is more efficient than all in. That said, there's probably not much difference in EV between raising and calling - the odds are very tempting to call. I would have expected Tx to fold a lot of the time here. Raising after facing bet-bet-bet is very strong.
I was thinking he had A10.
I would probably fold on the turn.
As soon as I heard V donked the flop, I was screaming, "he's got AT! It's AT you fool!" Has to be a fold on the turn, if you don't raise flop.
@@1vailchris Yeah, from my experience playing online when people donk lead on you they usually got the goods, unless they are a really bad player who bets like 1bb cause they think you will fold.
Yea turn seems like a fold
Ace hearts for opponent better to call you aren’t supposed to bluff with missed ace hearts often if at all. Guess depends what he thinks of you in a sense but assuming he thinks you’re not out there
😮
River raise made no sense? If you wanted a 10 to fold you’d need to them in a gross spot and jam with the 9 in your hand.
It feels like your losing 75% of the time with 25% he's bluffing.
I think I will raise $1K here as a bluff or even going all in!
HEY Bart. The "power" of T9suited is (1) making a straight 678 78J 8JQ (2) A weak flush (pot control) (3) Top pair 5th kicker ?? is terrible !! This vlog does NOT deserve the air time it is getting... Check/fold from the go....after the backdoor flush flames out....
Its a fold on a turn all day long. These guys never fold their top pair and always play this way because they dont know how to check call,
3betting T9s is pure spew its a pure error in the 6max world and I can only assume it's worse in 9max
Can’t bluff a bad player
Dare I disagree with Bart, but this guy has so many A10’s.. was my first thought when he donked. I think it’s a fold on the river if not the turn.
Exploitable yes, but it’s live poker and by folding you are the one doing the exploiting.
Also, people don’t expect you to 3b 89 on button when 95% of players would flat 89 pre in that spot especially on the button. We’re talking about the smallest game in the room.
You’re representing that hand and that hand alone when your opponent was never putting you on it.. they’re calling way too often to bluff there.
Same reasons I would raise river here with overpairs
Ugh. Old man donk leads flop, he's got something he thinks is good, and isn't going to want to fold it. No way I raise. Just fold turn and move on.
Yea jesus christ ANOTHER open and shut call-in case. Literally said villian has A10 when he sigh calls river. Donk bet here is almost always top pair especially considering its a 1/3 game. Continuing to barrel on the turn confirms this. @Bart: Why are you even applying advanced logic to a 1/3 game such as when Villian should be cognisant of it being multiway on flop? Villian doesn't care about that he only cares about protecting his hand while simultaneously determining if he's good or not.
Players like this Villian at 1/3 often fall into "best hand entitlement" by the river, especially if they were leading the entire way and you decide to show no strength until the river. They almost are never folding so its pointless to try to be fancy as your just going to fall victim to players too dumb to fold.
@@charlesnewborn3760i believe it is important to remind people of what the average player does against what is correct. The whole concept of the show is exploiting mistakes, so point out the mistakes.
Why not fold on the flop?
Naw, old men who haven't studied GTO often lead with draws. His small sizing, is call call call always call when the draw bricks
@@genekboyer This was a 3 bet pot. It's 3 handed to the flop. Villain is OOP. He leads for $150 into $225.
Does ANY of that go with that BS you just wrote?
zomg first again
fold pre if CO is best player in room
wat
@@snex000 FOLD PRE IF CO IS BEST PLAYER IN ROOM
@@sirpaddlesworthiii5933 No it isn't.
@@snex000 yes it is
@@sirpaddlesworthiii5933 No, it isn't. You are bad at poker.