I Sold All My Rivian Stock 😬
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- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
- It's going to be a rough 2 years for Rivian. I decided to sell my tiny position, as I think dilution is coming. Rivian has only ~$9B in cash, and is burning $1.4B per quarter. The company can't make money on it's $100K R1S & R1T, so I'm not convinced they will be able to make a profit on the $45,000 R2. I love the company and brand, but the business is really struggling right now, and I'm worried shareholders could get screwed if dilution ramps up. Let me know your thoughts on Rivian, and the comparison to Tesla below!!
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0:00 Intro
0:57 Capital Raise Coming
1:41 R2 Launch
2:14 Insane Cash Burn
3:55 Weak Guidance
4:56 R2 Reservations
6:09 Rivian is a crappy business
7:17 Tesla Comparison
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I own no Rivian stock. I do own Tesla stock. 
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![The Great Transformation [Part 2] - The #Disruption of #Transportation](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Vqs0_3M-18c/mqdefault.jpg)
My car drives me around by itself. I love my car and I still believe in the company. I hope we dip close to $100-$120 again. I wanna load the boat. Apart from Tesla what would be the best 5 etfs for a beginner
In no order: 1) VOO 2) QQQM 3) SCHG/VUG 4) VTI 5) SCHD/DGRO. Personally I put down 2.3m$ on few ETFs, still diversifying. it was this time last year I made my first million with a liquid 200k. handed it to a trader here in CA, I get weekly pay out which I put back on long term ETF's. Google will be a huge buy for me when the market bottoms.
Good picks, Smart strategy for beginners, Please share this Expert with me.
She is Katherine Elizabeth Humphreys look her up online
Kath! Good to see her recommended here, Kath's mind is made for stock analysis, she is someone every starter should look up to, this is my 3 year letting her grow my funds and at the same time guiding me to the right efts to diversify to, I added VGT. So, VOO 25%, QQQM 25%, VGT 25%, SCHD 13%, DGRO 12%. This is my long term portfolio in M1 Finance that I’ll invest $10K a month into for the next 30 years in a compound interest calculator through investing 10k per month for 30 years, this projects to be $35.6 million.
Katherine !! I know her from my early days as an investor. She's brilliant and patient. Many of my colleagues have worked with her, and I highly recommend her.
You are jumping ships faster than you can say pirate
they just osbourned themselves twice!!!
They just trademarked R1X.
Intensionally… they lose so much on each car now they don’t actually want to sell any!
@@Witnessmoohow they going to make money on a $40,000 version 😂
Thanks I purchased your shares 😊
Now you hold the bag, enjoy
Not aging too well so far
How’s that going
@@revvolutionnews5307not no since
I think he only had like $200 worth of shares. Nothing to piss at.
I’m a hard core Tesla investor. Been buying shares with every spare dollar for years now. And I gotta say, it makes me so sad thinking about Rivian go away. They have a great brand, beautiful products, and their unveil was such a special event. The thought that this company, the vision, and those behind it could soon be in huge trouble…. Damnnnn
Now you are talking some senses. The first time I saw R2 price, my feeling was : Now who is going to buy R1? exactly
So, because Toyota had 4runner since the 80s, nobody bought Land Cruisers since? Doesn’t make much sense.
@@carlosnorris352Toyota built those two badges over decades. Rivian has only been shipping the R1 for about a year. They are definitely undercutting themselves on this one.
@@carlosnorris352 Yeah, 4 runner out sale Land Curser like 5 to 1, right?
Yeah and rivian won't be able to build it for 45k either. Maybe in a dedicated new factory but it's not there. Making r1 for 140k and selling it for 90K r2 maybe build for 100k and selling it for 45K. There's no profit in sight for another 2 years and after the r2 the losses might be even bigger 😵😵
R2 has much higher potential than R1 simply because it will be sold in far higher volumes despite lower per car margins. Models 3 and Y saved Tesla, R2 and R3 will do the same for Rivian. Yes, there will be some pain in the short term.
The game of stock market is always looking forward. So, if Rivian has the highest chance to survive as "tesla rival" compare to lucid, Fisker, Polestar, Vinfast etc, then market would reflect that possibility into a price. We all know in long run, EV is a irreversible trend compare to ice engine car. And in long run, Tesla can not be the only player in pure EV market. I am still holding to Rivian stock, maybe you are right it could keep falling to $4, but the point is if we are doing "investing" other than "speculating", then we don't time the market because you never know when is the bottom. I am still holding on to my stock because I bet Rivian would eventually survive through this tough period.
it's not called investing if one ignores quarterly financial statements and linear projections, its gambling - which is also fine.
@@cp987 as said, everything is number games. even gamble, yes, you calculate risk/possibilites and make move. I calculated risk based on current quarter financial, long term trend, company management strategy and current stock price, and made my decision. Then this kind of calculated gamble is fine.
It's stupid to use linear projections
No one knows future
You can justify all you want why you feel rivian is heading to bankruptcy.
The fact is, no one knows
I'm seeing more and more Rivians on the road. Las Vegas. For what it's worth.
Yeah the product is great prob one of the best evs out there but they havent been making enough money sofar
Good call, Gali. I think part of Rivian’s problem is too much focus on unnecessary things. The flashlight in the door and Bluetooth speaker are cool, but not needed and they add additional cost and complexity. Tesla was genius in how they reduced complexity. Their fun perks were in software which is cheap.
sell at $11 bottom $10 last week $14 come one , why selling as loss Rivian save $2.5 billion , $20 soon
Keep mind your "Tesla was genius in reduced complexity" reflects only in the mindset of a stock price, not the product. Those "extras" that Rivian and others add are highly lauded by the end purchasers.
@@aussie2uGAOh sure. Rivian’s products are amazing, but at the end of the day, the business needs to make sense or there won’t be anymore Rivians.
@@aussie2uGAmoronic, Tesla made money on the model S and model X. R1T and R1S has not made a profit. They are way too complex to make.
Finally some reasonable thinking Gali. Happy to see you back.
We must not forget the blunder that was Arcimoto. I knew this was a mistake the second you said it. Glad you got out and much respect for letting us know. FUV was a painful lesson, but has definitely saved me from making future mistakes. Invest on financials and solid foundations people!!
Yeah everyone makes mistakes - don't come to RUclips for financial advice haha
@@leonmilner9994Yeah, anyone listening to random YTers is hopeless tho
Great video on your thought process. One thing to look back on is most of the thing you said was true before you took your Rivian position so what initially changed your mind to take a Rivian position?
Loved this episode Gali, keep it up! Love from Spain
One thing that loss per unit drop from -30k to -42k between q3 and q4 is because amazon didnt take delivery during holiday season. There were tons of amazon van at the lot. And all of direct cost for this includigg by labor and raw materials considered as expense for gross margin. So i think effective loss per unit is -30k/unit. It seems that rivian was working really hard on saving supplier cost as well as labor cut(they cut 10% already and also will take 2 shift from 3 shift starting from q2. This could impact a lot in improving gross loss. But still company loss money even though they archive positive gross profit until end of year. So bankruptcy concern will follow them until they have enough cash or have positive net income
Love your honesty, keep up the vids 😊. I was surprised when I heard that you had bought rivian recently because in the past you said after seeing how insanely tough it was for Tesla to get through to profitability you didn't think it'd be likely for other EV startups to do the same. I also remember during the rivian IPO you threw out a number around 4 bucks a share you'd be a buyer at, that's what I've been waiting for 😅...smart to cut now I think tho
got a lil too excited. shouldve had more discipline. always learnin :)
I'm glad you sold. From what I learned from you over the years it would have been my decision as well, ESPECIALLY after their recent launch which felt like a way to drum up excitement about a FUTURE PROJECT while LOOSING MONEY TODAY! Talk about a squirrel moment. My eyes were fixed on their financials so it was a NO for me!
You're speaking with your feelings.
What would you say if they updated (like Tesla does) some important (VERY high demand) features using the “more efficient” design and manufacturing they discussed at the event, to bring up the revenues for the R1T/R1S?
I personally REALLY want the R1S but am hesitating over financial concerns you discuss.
I've been struggling to understand the Rivian story. Great product, great vibe, but they have yet to turn a positive gross profit, with little to no growth in 2024, and an insane ramp in 2026.
They either need to get acquired by someone like Apple to cover the losses for a REALLY long time until they figure it out... or it's bye bye, which would be a real shame.
i think the R2 presentation was a hail mary to get an acquisition or major funding deal. i think the lack of positive gross margin makes it a really tough sell. we'll see tho. wishing them the best
I think they are going to Osbourne themselves on the R2 and people waiting for a car half the cost..
@@HyperChangeTV 100% agreed.
To me it always seemed all the FUD about Tesla actually more or less is true with Rivian. But ppl ignored Rivian’s issues. It’s a shame I do like the their vehicles.
Originally Amazon was a big investor in Rivian to eventually have electric Amazon delivery vans. Is it possible that Amazon might aquire Rivian?
Hey Gali! Good vid and thanks for sharing. Switching gears a bit, what are your thoughts on Tesla and it's growth trajectory over the next 2 years, say until end 2025?
Galileo, stick to car company assessments and you are a star. Your analyses are spot on.
Does anyone know how their vans are doing? They are unique. Any non-Amazon customers stepping up since the exclusivity is gone? How much $ do they lose on each van? Rarely do people talk about this segment.
Considering the silence around it, I'm guessing not good. If it were selling well they would talk about it non-stop.
@@andrasbiro3007 i see quite a few of the Rivian Amazon vans here in Rochester NY but ive only seen one Rivian truck. And nowadays i see multiple Teslas.
The EDV has been positive gross margin for a while. They have companies with test fleets out. Someone spotted DHL EDVs down at the plant in Normal. If Rivian could get a DHL contract, this would be huge. In my opinion, I think the EDV is what will carry them through 2025 with the expansion in major customers.
@@timflynn5562
If that's true, why don't they push harder in that direction? It should be much easier too, fleets are buying larger numbers, they care about cost per mile, not sticker price, they care about reliability and maintenance, and they also like to brag about reducing their carbon footprint. And delivery vans don't need much range.
Should be easy to sell hundreds of thousands.
I enjoyed this, good video. There will always be haters for every streamer when they make mistake, but you spoke about this rationally and mirror my exact thoughts. So for me, it was helpful to stay strong and not invest in something I know is far too risky.
I got in really low, < $15/share and am going to hold. Rivian realizes their situation, hopefully it's plan to pause construction on the GA plant and streamline production isn't too little too late. But I'd rather support U.S. built Rivian then China built Tesla. Merica🇺🇸
I think Rivian can make it. People need to be more patient. Tesla's road to success was very bumpy. Worst case, I think they get purchased by one of the legacy automakers. Too much good there for it to simply disappear. I just increased my holding by 25% once price dropped below $10. My overall cost per share is $15. If I am wrong and Rivian doesn't make it, I will go down with the ship.
@@CoinHoundsame :)
Thanks for being honest and transparent
The only chance for Rivian now is diluted stock or get bought out form Ford/GM. I never got in to Rivian, I could see the problems long ago. Great product but they’ve had plenty of time to ramp and they still can’t make money in the R1.. they need some Saudi money like lucid.. polestar is another good car when compared to other ev’s but compared to Tesla they are nowhere.. you only have to look at the auto shows to realise they are all copying Tesla which means they’re years behind..
Or maybe by Amazon.
I have a very small stake that I took a while back to see where they go. But I had concerns for a few quarters as well. I think I will hold the few left but I am not expecting much from them at this point. Like I am with Archimoto... 🤷🏾♂
Can you make a similar analysis video for Lucid ?
Not worth the time lol
Is Shell a contender? Today, 21 March 2024 it has been reported that Shell is shutting down 1,000 gas stations in China and Europe and Australia as well as the UK to add an additional 140+K charging points. Is it worth considering to buy Shell at under $70 a share?
Great vid Gali
Did the same. Bought tsla instead. At Q3 will get back in. I expect Q4 profits and i will get out again. I expect it to stay under $20 thru next year...
The 3 vehicle rollout was desperation. It will work, just will take time
Great analysis per usual. What’s the driver between the gap in gross margin. It’s shocking when compared to Teslas history. It’s incomparable. 🤯
Do you hold the same sentiment for Polestar? Great lineup of EVs. Business seems tumultuous.
You kept it 💯 Gali. Was high key thinking you would come to this conclusion as soon as the R2 was announced and the financial issues weren’t addressed with their existing product. We’re witnessing diversion at its finest.
Good lookin' out bro
Well, most of this was known when you bought. What changed?
Original intro to Hyperchange was a kind of follow-up news report on how and why Tesla was a vertically integrated mission statement for around a dozen startup companies and one Chief Engineering obsessive willing to sleep on the factory flow until production was tuned in.
Rivian is a ghostly shadow by comparison. So thanks for your POV back when we were buying a newly minted, world's safest car, which is like watching the FSD baby learning to navigate by itself.
Waiting for your G to a milly update !:)
Pretty easy to go from a G to a Milly when you put a Milly in!
They are pausing Q2 to redo supply? It's hard to say afterwards
The only way that our two might work and maybe the reason they are introducing it right now is if they are going to copy the giga, casting model of Tesla, and actually produce a vehicle that turns a profit
I think the Rivian product is absolutely great (I own an R1S now). However, I agree with Gali that they are in financial trouble. I hope they do not go away completely, but it feels like they are on a path to bankruptcy. Does Apple or Amazon buy them up cheap at that point, or do they issue shares now and dilute investors? Either way, there is not a good horizon for the stock...
Facts. low key wonder what changed for you because this thesis was true when you bought. Kind of thought it was a technical analysis play
Good warning!
Like you, I liked the Rivian story and I loved the way they stayed in stealth mode and at that stage the losses were no were near as bad as it is now! It feels like as soon as they got a large investment the lean and mean way of operating went out the window and the people were fat and happy and this is what was a great looking new company into one that looks destined to hit the buffers within 2 years!
You should start a leap position in tsla
This is the video you were supposed to do before buying the damn stock lol
Stick with the winner! TSLA
Excellent analysis and discipline to cut the losses.
Uhh nope. @ IPO he said no way he would buy at that evaluation. Nibble at 10$ a share. He just didn’t listen to his own advice.
@@dont_hit_trees
Doesn't matter where you buy if the price goes to zero.
I don't see how Rivian could survive, even with more cash infusion. They don't have a business model, because the cars cost far more to build than they are selling for, and the numbers are not trending in the right direction. They would either have to control costs aggressively, or take advantage of the economies of scale, but they failed at both.
And pivoting to the R2 just makes it worse. It's much harder to build a high volume car profitably, and it requires huge investments first. They are digging their own grave, and their plan is to rent an excavator.
I never thought Rivian would be a major player even though it is a major upgrade over most pickup trucks. But now, with the Cybertruck, I don't see anything else, and I'm an old guy. Rivian's money management is poor and they have a literal money mountain, to climb, before they can dig themselves out of a hole.
So you bought like five or 600 shares?
Gali! Sometimes we need to reset, no shame in that, thank you for the honesty
Criticism towards Gali is somewhat understandable, especially if you haven’t been around since the golden 2018/2019 days, but PEOPLE CAN CHANGE THEIR MINDS. At least he is taking the time to explain his thought process every step of the way. You don’t have to agree with anything he says.
Do a video on Vinfast! I’m so curious about that company
thanks for using a good mic
Why don’t you short the stocks then, if you are so confident about them going bankruptcy then ?
Good timing with the portfolio videos. lol
Thanks Gali
How come? Didn't they just reveal the VW Golf 2? It will be amazing ;)
Why dont thwy advertise on X?
If only we could've seen this coming...
The type of buyer for R1 va R2 are very different from each other. R1 is more of a statement (big, bulky form rich buyers). R2 is for more size/cost conscious buyers.
Excellent work from thel OG retail analyst. I hope they can turn it around 🤞
I was also considering rivian stock. I like RJ, i like the brand and product but the product is too costly and such a competative market. Sticking with my tesla shares and not buying rivian unless its pennies and Bezos will provide the back stop!
"They have 1,5-2 years left of cash at the CURRENT burn rate". He fails to take into account that Rivian has concrete plans to reduce costs massively through factory upgrades this and next quarter. Add to this more fleet customers, leasing and revenue from subscription services etc. and they will be fine. "It´s a great product but a bad business" has become a slogan, but repeating it over and over doesn´t make it true.
We’ll see if they can reduce that cash burn
good job here.
Gali can you talk about Lordstown please.
Please split the lost per car between fix and variable costs. If the loss is only from the fixed cost, there is hope if sales increase.
What changed over the past few weeks that changed your mind?
The R2 announcement. Huge red flag, it means they gave up on the R1 platform, and they don't have enough cash to build the R2, so it's game over. Not to mention that a higher volume car is exponentially harder to build, and even harder to sell at a profit. And how are they going to control the cost on that if they couldn't on the R1?
@@andrasbiro3007 totally agree, I think this has been clear this is the way it was going to go for a long time. I just don’t understand what about any of that is different after a few weeks…
this mf be flip floppin
I totally agreed with you. Rivian will has to raise money again soon. So, becareful even if you like their stock. Should wait until their big dilution
Good idea to cut loss on Rivian. Tesla way better just gotta hold for 15 years
Just go all-in TSLA.
Put some money in Nvidia, it will outperform tesla
I think they have 4.5bn in debt as well so they wont last the year before being in red. To lose as much as they do they must be overpaying their suppliers. Like I mentioned I came across R2 headlights for sale used at 600$ for one. And it wasn't a one off. I figure they need to renegotiate and integrate vertically. If the supplier wants 800$ for a headlight, make it in house and smarter than they did. Hard plastic things aren't the hardest to produce, with small gear you can easily stamp out 100k in a year. They might reduce the price by factor 5-10. Tesla started making their own glass which is pretty wild but if that's what it takes... losing 6bn$ per year on a successful product is not mathing.
To be fair Tesla had around 100% loss on each Roadster in the beginning as well. But still they only made 600 per year.
What about the Amazon delivery vans revenues ?
guidance. implies theyll be weak
It’s really make sense. Great product but not great business to invest.
I got burned and haven’t sold
Love RJ And the brand!!!
As for Lucid?
Gali, you should have titled this video “how to see the truth though the hype” what a great lesson in identifying a ”crappy business”. Peace ✌️
Should Landrover buy them?
100% agree with you, honestly the only outcome that makes sense here is for Apple to buy Rivian.
This information was in front of you the whole time was it not? Why the sudden epiphany?
Hey Gail, how did I get unsubscribed?
Strange.
Buy it and meet me next year same time with regrets
The number looked bad for Rivian comparing to Tesla may partially due the COVID.
Yeah full agree. If the R1 has too many features to make a profit then cut features and quality from it until they can get it to work. They just got high on stimmy check capital and built a car which was much too nice, company is run from the heart not the head and they're already over.
Would you ever invest in $FUV Arcimoto again… atleast they are cheap… I wonder whether you can give us a deep dive into their current financial position ? Don’t hear much from them for a while
In house motor has a higher accrual rate in terms of warranty vs bosch and the burn increased further. Management is the issue not product line. Time for them to get better leadership. RJ burned 19 billion enough is enough
Definition of Buy high sell low. Now Rivian can moon. I find it hilarious that you think you are the one finding out they will end cash before launching anything. Like the CEO doesn’t know the numbers of the company he founded. To me it’s super clear that some more investments from big players will flow into this. And possibly even an acquisition.
Buy low, sell lower is not a good strategy. I sold all my rivian back in December. Now it’s $9 or less.
lol "No Chhauance"
What is a chaunce? I heard that too. Is that new slang?
it’s “ chance” it means luck in french
NO CHAUUUNCE
Facts
Chief Commercial Officer and CFO have been selling their Rivian stocks
Very good analysis. Also dumping my shares
Why are the delivery vans not main star? Nobody talks about them…
Damn you are loading up on theta network ?
Just focus un 2-3 quality stock and ride along. If you keep the mentality of wanting more of this and that you will end up having 25 stocks in your PF. The best recipe to not beat the sp500.
Btw Tesla is going sub 100. It’s pretty obvious. I’ll buy if it gets between 70 and 90.
I think Rivian still has a better than even chance of succeeding, but for that reason, it's by definition a speculative play, and I wont be adding more than what I've had for the last year or so. If I was younger and no dominant force was already making waves in EVs (i.e., Tesla), I'd probably be adding more, but the coast is no longer clear for companies looking for smooth sailing in the EV space.
this was pretty ovbious when you bought at $15... did you skip analysis ?
Bro using Unlimited Void in that thumbnail
If you're buying a stock at $15 and selling it two weeks later at $11, you shouldn't be buying stocks. Get a financial advisor or buy index funds, this game ain't for you.
No chonce. No chonce!
What's the reason why they are being so "bloated"?
Too much easy funding when they got started. Raising too much will kill ya