Great video as always Chris. I do think it is dangerous the comment about upping the stake if your losing. That is like chasing your loses which is never a good thing and I am sure way back you told us to never do that ;) . I know you would be smart about it but doing a martingale stratergy could be devestating for some people. Keep up th good work.
I do apologise for not being completely clear. That would only be if you had the bankroll available to stomach the higher stakes. If you only had £900 total bankroll then £13.50 or 1.5% on each bet no matter what would be the max.
People don't understand the probability of independent events. If you toss tails 7 times in a row.....that doesn't mean heads is more likely to come up in the next coin toss. It's still 50/50....the coin doesn't have any memory
THanks for the video. Excellent quality but dont change your stake when losing :) Not a good idea. In theory you could apply this concept: the bigger the value the higher stake BUT thats just an idea. You should always stick to your staking method.
You're essentially applying the betting theory of card counting. I'm surprised it's not actually part of the strategy of the site at first glance. The one negative is that you lose the largest amounts when you have the greatest advantage, which in itself is triggering.
In theory is the main thing here, could this eventually work out as an average similar to the 2up bets do you think or more likely & often wins than that? Id be interested in starting it if it wasnt some crazy chance of roi been lower than what im doing or incurring big losses?
Unhedged 2UP strategy does make sense, as the bets are positive EV. I have recorded all my 2UP bets and outcomes (around 600 matches) so I am going to compare the volatility and see if the strategy would preform the same. have you already done something like this?
i have a question if we back a value bet at the odds of 2 for the sake of the argument with implied value of 7 % what happens in the scenario that the price drifts either rebel bet got it wrong or some new info occurred rebel bet will not put this match again with new odds as value bet pretty much admitting is a mistake wouldn't be wise to cash out this trade in a small loss since value have disappeared please enlighten me if i get something wrong tnx
@@ProfitBoss I'll be keeping an eye for your long term results with Betfair. What average bet have you managed to get on with gubbed accounts, is it worth while?
Thanks for pressing the like button. Don't forget to grab your free trial here: bit.ly/3z2KBXw
Hi you say look under vido you find link (I cannot find it please can you help
Applying a martingale when losing and doubling down is easily the best way to lose everything. Take caution
Great video as always Chris. I do think it is dangerous the comment about upping the stake if your losing. That is like chasing your loses which is never a good thing and I am sure way back you told us to never do that ;) . I know you would be smart about it but doing a martingale stratergy could be devestating for some people. Keep up th good work.
I do apologise for not being completely clear. That would only be if you had the bankroll available to stomach the higher stakes. If you only had £900 total bankroll then £13.50 or 1.5% on each bet no matter what would be the max.
The idea of increasing bet size drastically when you're on a losing (below EV) run because it theoretically will balance out sounds a horrible idea.
People don't understand the probability of independent events. If you toss tails 7 times in a row.....that doesn't mean heads is more likely to come up in the next coin toss. It's still 50/50....the coin doesn't have any memory
Amazing tutorial. Great video as always. You rock, Chris. Thank You so much.
THanks for the video. Excellent quality but dont change your stake when losing :) Not a good idea.
In theory you could apply this concept: the bigger the value the higher stake BUT
thats just an idea. You should always stick to your staking method.
You're essentially applying the betting theory of card counting. I'm surprised it's not actually part of the strategy of the site at first glance. The one negative is that you lose the largest amounts when you have the greatest advantage, which in itself is triggering.
@@mick727xd Yea i know. Thats just a theory :) We know how things work in real life.
Yeah exactly, it's amazing how many people don't understand statistics.
Hey Chris, don't know if you've seen, but SkyBet are going to be offering 2up with the new football season!
In theory is the main thing here, could this eventually work out as an average similar to the 2up bets do you think or more likely & often wins than that? Id be interested in starting it if it wasnt some crazy chance of roi been lower than what im doing or incurring big losses?
Unhedged 2UP strategy does make sense, as the bets are positive EV. I have recorded all my 2UP bets and outcomes (around 600 matches) so I am going to compare the volatility and see if the strategy would preform the same. have you already done something like this?
Great video Chris.. hopefully there will be an update video soon at the end of your trial maybe? Very interesting video indeed!!
What are you placing bets on? I mean, are you placing bets on obscure matches/games that are likely to raise red flags with bookies?
looks that way but will lesser bookies 32red, jennings bet etc.
I’m £47 down with only a £500 bankroll how does that even work doing this after initially being £20 up
Hi Lewis, just like with the 2up and EP strategy it has a variance. What does your CLV (closing line value) number say on your tracker?
1.86%
@@ProfitBoss what does that mean?
What are the chances of getting SR to pennies doing this?
Lower than losing all your money by not doing this
What about staking system you use?
Hi, I have always just used flat staking. Thanks
i have a question if we back a value bet at the odds of 2 for the sake of the argument with implied value of 7 % what happens in the scenario that the price drifts either rebel bet got it wrong or some new info occurred rebel bet will not put this match again with new odds as value bet pretty much admitting is a mistake wouldn't be wise to cash out this trade in a small loss since value have disappeared please enlighten me if i get something wrong tnx
If the price drifts before you have placed the bet then you don't place the bet obviously.
@@topsalah1819 mate i mean after you place it
@@topsalah1819 and also why not higher odds more value isnt it?
So when loosing apply Martingale, noted
How have you been placing bets at Betsafe when they don't accept UK customers?
VPN I presume
@@rastaraptor6619 it isn’t that easy. You would need a non UK address, proof you live at that address and a non UK bank account
Is value betting the road to go down when I get bored of matched betting? It seems like big returns for very little effort
Hi Jordan, for sure it seems like a logical step. Place your 20-30 bets each day and then wait for the results 👍. Thanks
Matched betting is an absolute waste of time . PATHETIC
Double your money every 3 months .
I started off with £1000 and after 2 years I had £256,000
@@RoyChadwick51 why do u say that?
@@wunmi9359 because it’s impossible to double your money every 3 months
IMPOSSIBLE
Are you doing this with gubbed accounts?
Hey Carl, yes gubbed accounts and also with the pro version you get exchange bets so I have been placing a fair few on Betfair. Thanks
@@ProfitBoss I'll be keeping an eye for your long term results with Betfair.
What average bet have you managed to get on with gubbed accounts, is it worth while?