Every Time This Happens, It Leads to High Unemployment
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- Опубликовано: 9 сен 2024
- Last week, the markets and the media melted down over well-founded recession fear. This week, in the aftermath, everyone will say it was all overblown. That's just normal. Meanwhile, the actual recession continues to progress and the data keeps showing momentum is all on that side. This includes yet another signal strongly correlated with unemployment. If that wasn't enough, yet more warnings from leisure and travel companies.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Everyone is talking about the Sahm recession indicator.
www.cnbc.com/2...
CNBC Airbnb shares drop 14% on earnings miss as company warns of slowing U.S. demand
www.cnbc.com/2...
CNBC Southwest profit falls 46% as airline takes ‘urgent’ steps to increase revenue
www.cnbc.com/2...
Bloomberg Delta’s Disappointing Outlook Sends Warning on Summer Travel
www.bloomberg....
www.eurodollar...
Twitter: / jeffsnider_edu
I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?
In my opinion, now is not the moment to rely on hearsay. Every individual, regardless of their level of experience as an investor OR in a financial market, requires guidance at some stage.
This is precisely why I like having an asset manager look over my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a manager for more than two years, and I've made over 85% of my initial amount
this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Finding financial advisors like Jessica Lee Horst who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Jessica up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
I can't believe how often this happens. Every time the market takes a dive, it feels like we're right back to square one with unemployment. It's like Groundhog Day.
It's so frustrating. You work hard, build a career, and then boom, everything comes crashing down. It's like you're constantly living on borrowed time.
I know, right? I've lost count of how many times I've had to dust off my resume and start job hunting. It's exhausting.
This is exactly why I've been considering working with a financial advisor. I mean, I can't control the economy, but I can try to protect my finances as best as possible.
That's smart. I've been thinking about it too. À CFA could help me figure out how to invest my money so I'm not as vulnerable to these downturns.
Someone with at least 15 years experience and not all these newbies
Every time I got fired, unemployment went up
Only if you were actively looking for work.
did you get fired recently?
@@frklnchg No. I gave up and retired.
Untapped alpha
@sociolocomtsac you can't get fired if you're not working
I’m so broke, I can’t even pay attention.
Nice dad joke.
The best thing FED should do is let the recession or even depression happen as naturally it would be. This will reset dangerous asset bubbles for long term sustainibility.
Yes that would be the right thing to do ultimately. When was the last time the gobement did the " right thing"
Sorry bout the spelling
Yea but if they do that, who's gonna vote for them to stay in office? 🤔can't have these politicians lose their jobs due to recession cmonn
Money printer
Recession momentum is so bad,
We're heading for financial hell in a hand basket. Hang on.
Many people were laid off with pay for 2-4 months. Unemployment is gonna go up in 1-3 months.
We live in an upscale area with a very upscale Walmart. I've been in Walmarts in other states that were 100% not upscale. When we moved here in 2017, I couldn't believe how upscale this Walmart was - I'd never seen one so nice.
Well, our family stopped shopping (for anything) at this 'Super Walmart' - it has turned into a zoo.
There are too many people in the store, all the time now, and store staff apparently was never trained for the chronic high traffic.
The store staff is rude, hostile, short-tempered, and not even store managers have any courtesy left. They are overwhelmed.
"Polite, professional, positive" is gone from the staff.
(This is not in the northeast by the way).
We now do 100% of our shopping elsewhere - the lines are quite short where we shop now; store staff is courteous because they're not chronically overwhelmed with crowds of people. It's worth paying slightly higher prices.
I saw Ms. Sahm today on one of the finance shows, and when she could not say 'recession is here' and 'the interest rate reduction will take a long time to help and needs to be done now', what popped into my thoughts was: "Election year"
The theme parks (of which there are many) in our metro area have seen substantial drops in visitors also. We're in a recession.
.
I use a modified version of the Sahm rule. I say when unemployment is about 1% higher than an established minimum unemployment rate based on a minimum trailing 4 month observation period, we are already in a recession that has not been verified yet and made official. We are already there now. The last 4.3% unemployment print put us there. And to put things in perspective, in the GFC and Nasdaq bubble recessions, we were already about halfway down the rate cutting cycle when this modified Sahm rule was hit. And we have not even started rate cutting this time!
@@Tie509 Right. And Powell has a behavior pattern of not understanding the lag time that occurs. There is a time delay, ALWAYS, as follows:
1) "change interest rate"
2) "a time delay occurs"
3) "finally, the change to interest rates begins to affect the economy"
People were screaming at Powell et al that "raise rates or inflation will hit hard" and he just does not seem to understand the time delay between "make the interest rate change" and "starts affecting the economy"
If you have kids, you know that predicting their future behavior is easy: look at their past behavior.
Powell has a 'blind spot' about the delay time. He then had to raise rates, DRASTICALLY, starting in March 2022.
His 'blind spot' is still there. If they start lowering rates NOW, a time delay before that helps the economy will occur.
We suspect Powell will start dropping rates by drastic amounts soon.
And if an external economic shock to the economy occurs, my goodness, Powell will be ousted for his amateurish handling of interest rates.
@@Greg_Chase That is the problem with being (lagging) "data dependent."
Even chick fil a lines at lunch time are shorter
I have seen many of these videos from many different people, but this guy did the best way to explain why we're screwed. Following
He is an absolute clown.
Check video history
Damn, you are the smartest homeless person I know
Claudia Sahm is making the classic mistake of violating your own rules and indicators. In trading thats a ticking time bomb.
orthodox economists are more like magicians than scientists
So how do you position yourself? Perhaps some solutions are better
What the hell are you doing with you Mr eyes on the thumbnail?
Prices go up, these guys cry and fear monger, prices go down, the same people cry and fear monger.
Feel like we've gotten wayy more micro economy than this acct was before. Good info but I much prefer stuff on the Macro, Eurodollar/global monetary system. Lots of great people to interview, More important things to talk about Imo
This is still macro, not micro (micro economy is what happens inside a firm), but focus is on the economy right now because it is at a turning point. I expect discourses on the monetary system will resume when this critical period is behind us.
@@michaels4255 Ok so not definitionally, but on a relative basis for those who have been here for awhile. It's just that leading indicators saw this so long ago and I know Jeff is doing way more in the background. These seem like filler vids just talking only of contemporaneous data
How about inflationary depression?
Versidium's innovation is unmatched. Eye on the prize!
This guy cant even present data clearly.
Like faulty AI it just makes sentences and noise
Versidium's making moves. Glad to be part of it!
Bond yields have risen 30 bps in just 3 days.
It's called sell that 20% gain you just made.
The TLT bros' silence is deafening.
@@wagashiohagi We're too busy enjoying the profits and waiting to reload for another move up. It's the silent weeping of the bond-short-bros that's troubling
@@Scisca1a2a LoL!
I studied construction at University and construction spending and projects is a 6 months ahead leading indicator of economic downturns although it used to be until 1990.
My credit card is glowing thanks to the FED's support of the stock market. My portfolio multiplied allowing me to cash in on some of it and get rich without actually doing any useful work.
Versidium's future looks bright. Stellar project!
thanks Jeff
Versidium's strategy is on point. Big potential!
What would removing debt from the elegible spending group do to impact the the global econ? US debt is tied so closely to the global, could amnessia of debt help in the core consumer market globally?
SELL EVERYTHING!!! RUN!!! GET YOUR MONEY OUT!!!! WHILE YOU CAN!!!!!! ITS THE START OF a MEGA CRASH!!!!!!!!! SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!
It seems that economists are more interested in the study of Central Banking than they are in free markets.
They want to understand the economy we live in, which is by no means a free market. Central Banks and Govt behaviors put massive, trackable distortions on the behaviors of the market that would be a lot more intuitive and sane if it WERE a free market
@@jamesfgordon9096 Those forces help maintain the aquarium. It's simply government spending that is out of control.
@@gezenews FRED series. W068RCQ027SBEA / PI (total government spending / personal income) is 42%, what it was in the 1980-90s, until the GOP congress froze expansion in 1995 so it fell to 36% by 2000.
@@tachikaze222 LOL, the relationship between government spending and personal income isn't a simple ratio. It's more like an additive effect on a fraction of personal income. The deficit isn't a ratio, and inflation isn't directly influenced by this ratio either. It's all about the difference, the deficit.
Jeff "I didn't pay to promote this video so nobody watched" Snider. Debunked.
Lowering rates makes perfect sense.
I often question the accuracy of economic data and credit card usage statistics. I pay off my cards but use credit to earn travel points. For example, this month I can get 5% back on groceries. If I paid cash, I’d miss out on free travel. If I’m doing this, I think many others are too. So, I wonder if incorrect assumptions are being made. Besides, I believe most published economic numbers are approximations, as the government likely wouldn’t use actual numbers for national security reasons.
Versidium hype is building. Exciting times ahead!
2 years I’ve been listening to Jeff beartarding and the stock market keeps ignoring bad data bouncing up up up climbing higher. There is no fear, there is plenty of liquidity and no demand for UST yet. It’s been 2 years!
You're right. You should definitely go all in peaches. This time it's different.
@@craigbrison4241 "this time" has 4M boomers retiring every year.
Jeffs crash is" like Becketts" waiting for Godot ". Nothing ever happens, He's just busy waiting looking at his charts. Godot never arrives Jeff. A Budhist would say the joy is in the waiting. The waiting does appear to make Jeff happy.
The pure joy declaring doom is upon us! Jeff is in the hog heaven of doomsaying!😂
@@PlanetFrosty Praise be to the doomsayer! 😅
There is no getting around real god (value). I'm sure the pharaoh felt Moses looked pretty silly until the river ran red and his first born son was killed. You cannot escape God (truth). You cannot escape real value or its lacking.
@@gezenews aint no god foo!
@@GameAintBasedOnnSympathy There's a reason western society achieved what it has. It's the belief in a central truth. It doesn't require a belief in god. More like a belief in science.
Can't ignore Versidium any longer, it's happening!
Very educational and informative! Thank you!
Just added more Versidium to my portfolio!
Believing in Versidium's journey. It's a solid bet.
Versidium's buzz is justified. Count me in!
8/2/20 Video Titled "The Fed Strikes Out! Negative Interest Rates Soon?"
"We're a hair trigger away from negative nominals, not runaway inflation." -Jeff
SPY +60%
QQQ +65
GLD +21
TLT -45
USO +159
CPI from 0.1 to 9.1 to 3.0.
It's hilarious that a six percent pullback in the SPY from all time highs, and suddenly "Our savior genius Jeff warned us this was coming!"
Laughable.
Market timing is tough.
@@michaels4255 No it is not.
Are credit card balances declining because of writeoffs or people paying off balances. Also, I heard that credit card balances just hit an all-time high of 1 14 trillion. Is Jeff saying the rate of credit card usage is slowing or the total balances? Call me confused
Versidium for the win. This is just the start!
Nothing about the Buy Now Pay Later Crater ? 😱😵💫😱
Kinda Sus 🤨🤪🤨
so, three years from now, a recession might be coming...
Unless you are prepared to fork out billions to cover the missing china trade then no its coming.
You should take out a loan and go all in for sure!
Absolutely right Jeff, interest rate follows rate of growth
Thabk you for your insights 🙏🏼
Sounds bullish
All while Berkshire sells off 80+ billion in Apple stock like ain’t no thing. lol
And Far East hedges Japanese yen for 4 billion invested heavily in Apple and Magnificent 7 stocks and made huge returns and bought back that 4 billion yen at a 25% percent discount. My math they made over 2 billion min in that trade and short.
Ok on the short but why did he sell??? To shake the longs out??
I find this trade very interesting. He/his son own farmland around here. He put in enough storage to store everything they grow. They have been talking about the Japanese Yen--they never called it the carry trade pushing down wheat prices for some time. People would ask the experts if wheat was going to break out and they would say no--the traders have it. So it is possible that the family just got tire of it and decided to put them in the red.
You know that every acre of grain in this country is in the red because of this going on for years? They destroyed the export markets for grains.
30K people lost their jobs as of the first of August, some probably got severance like CISCO and other tech companies. The actual unemployment numbers will not be accurately represented until their Severance runs out.
It's good that you bring these things to my attention. You know me I'm such an optimist. Rose tinted glasses everywhere! Everyone calls me Mr. Blue Sky! I really needed a shock to bring me back to reality and I sure am glad that youtube algo feels fit to fill my noggin' up with it!
so wait sorry let me get this straight. so we were at all time lows for lending at low rates for alot of years, we increased rates quickly, unemployment increase, so now we go back to 0%? 2%? what happens to house prices and the inverse direction?
Love your vids. Even when it's like 1:00 am in my country, I still wait for new upload from you. Salute from Poland Jeff, amazing knowledge. 🍻
AROD=America runs on Debt
Don't people mostly use credit cards to maximize airline miles?
I pay my cards off every month but right now I’m severely curtailing their use.
:)
I often question the accuracy of economic data and credit card usage statistics. I pay off my cards but use credit to earn travel points. For example, this month I can get 5% back on groceries. If I paid cash, I’d miss out on free travel. If I’m doing this, I think many others are too. So, I wonder if incorrect assumptions are being made. Besides, I believe most published economic numbers are approximations, as the government likely wouldn’t use actual numbers for national security reasons.
@@MrOboe-ry5gm don't assume everybody knows about how to maximize their credit card usage. Most people just see credit card as ''more money''
The employment market is heavily underreported on. It’s being destroyed.
If Claudia Sahm is saying we aren’t in recession you gotta listen
Minus the 2020 chaos, when you chart PAYEMS you can draw a straight line from the 2010 low to now. No job loss, no meaningful recession. Just like the "Big Short" guys, I saw the 2008 crash coming from two years away . . . trying to figure out what's going to fail to get a recession going here. so far, correlation is not causation!!
09-Aug-2007 today we celebrate 17 years
Great info, Jeff.
I used to fly several times a week for work, for decades - now I drive the five hours one way and charge my customer for travel time and put it in MY pocket. $500 for a 45 min flight ya can’t even pick your seats for. LOL 🖕🏼
Commentary, is no earthly good for the simple common man.
just gonna ignore the mid 90s eh?
Does this mean that I'll have an easier time applying for a high rewards credit card with a "fair" credit score?
You missed a big recession spike right there. We all noticed it too. You forgot a recession mark there should be two at that end
All this financial data and none of it ever matters.
lol and there is another guy telling the exact opposite. Idk who to even listen to 😅
The only thing that’s really weird about this recession is that our national debt is way higher than in years past. I think the market is betting on high inflation, probably better to have equity than cash if that’s the case.
So, what does matter?
What's is his name ?@@chrisk7812
@@jfuite These FRED series: CP, PAYEMS. U4RATE. W068RCQ027SBEA showing gov't spending rising from $6T in 2015 to $10T today, that's highly counter-cyclical. 300,000 boomers retiring every month for the rest of the decade.
If you don't know exactly why the 1980, 1991, 2001, and 2008 recessions hit, you're probably not equipped to understand when the next one comes.
The Consumer Credit- Revolving Monthly change @4:53 have similar trends in them at 2006.07, 2015.01, 2016.01 and 2018.07 which did NOT result in recessions. I also think with the Construction Spending, 2019-2024 you should include more years. Even in this chart, I see an inflection between 2022-04 and 2022-07 which did not result in a recession. I am very skeptical of any charts which do NOT include 2008. Seem likes cherry picking analysis.
cherrypicking is Jeff's whole game. But I don't think 2008 has anything to teach us since home equity extraction and real estate bubble shenanigans is what was driving the entire economy 2005-2007. This was a $1T/yr stealth stimulus that was fun while it lasted but was going to blow up everything when the music stopped.
@@tachikaze222 Good point, should go further, to at least 2005!
*Amazing video, you work for 4Oyrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*
Hello, I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can't decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
Same, I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Jeff Clark, has been an amazing experience.
Hello how do you make such monthly?? I'm a born again Christian and sometimes I feel so down🤦🏽of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God
Good day all👍🏻from Australia 🇦🇺 I have read a lot of posts that people are very happy with the financial guidance he is giving them! What way can I get to him exactly ?
What's with the empty picture frames dude?
they can't lower rates. dxy will crash
Insightful, I never considered this. Thank you for taking the time out to make this video.
Absolutely brilliant Jeff.. Truly.. I’ve been reading and listening to JS for some time now.. I’m finally getting my head around the Fed and interest rates..
Unfortunately, not all of us were financially literate early. I was 35 when I finally educated myself and started taking steps. I went from $176,000 in debt with zero savings or retirement to now, 2 years later, fully debt-free and over $1000,000 net worth. I know that doesn't SOUND like a lot, but I'm incredibly proud of it. Now I'm fast-tracking my wealth building (investing $400,000 annually) and don't owe a dime to anyone. It's a good feeling!
Wow you give me hope
Am 49..am From norway...
Please how's that possible, I'm curious
Please how do i go about it, am still a newbie on investment trading and how can I make profit?
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Celia dullpher
She was paid off.
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Elena Stein
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
Fxstein 💯 .that's it
Sincerely speaking. I will continue to trade and stick to Elena Stein daily signals and guides as long as it works well for me.
Love your analysis Jeff. When do you expect construction to be hit? Will it be general or regional primarily?
#2000Mules 🇺🇸 52 U.S. Code § 20511 - Criminal penalties. A person, including an election official, who in any election for Federal office-shall be fined in accordance with title 18 up to $10,000 per infraction or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both. And 3x on damages up to $500,000.
Either you trust the indicators, or you find a million reasons to say why this time is different.
I don't "trust" the inverted yield curve or Sahm Rule, no. Every time is, in fact, different because correlation is not causation.
0.24 U.S. Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High of $1.14 Trillion
from X
sitting at 8% of total wages, where's it's been more or less since 2014.
Who thinks Harris would be 10X worse on inflation
Don’t complain about the economy… vote for Kamala and watch things get even worse.
More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.
Rising prices have affected my intention of retiring at 62, working part-time, and building my savings. I'm worried about whether individuals who weathered the 2008 financial crisis found it less challenging than my current situation. The stock market's volatility, coupled with a reduced income, is making me anxious about having enough for retirement.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from 275k to 850k.
Actually, I’ve actually been looking into that lately, the news I've been seeing in the market hasn't been so encouraging honestly. If you don't mind me asking who's the person guiding you?
Stumbled across your channel lately, really high quality information every day, i guess there is nothing comparable on YT, really awesome! Amen, Brother!
Smart analysis!
Hey Jeff, Love your Videos! Very Insighful!
What Software do you use for your charts and diagrams?
Thanks to Tampon Tim female hygiene product sales are up!
So which one is it with you doomer channels? If people aren't using their credit cards? That's bad? But hang on if people are using their credit cards too much that's also bad? 😂
Get out noww!
I'm your host Steve Van Metre and thanks for joining me today
@@hatz11 ...broadcasting live from prison.
BIBLE BELIEVERS ESCAPE TO HEAVEN IN THE RAPTURE
HOPE IT IS THIS YEAR!
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I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Sure, the investment-advisor that guides me is..
Mrs Laura shin
Her services is the best, I got a brand new Lambo last week and paid off my mortgage loan thanks to her wonderful services!
Same, I met Laura shin last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Laura shin
I wonder if Jeff has a lower back tattoo. It would track to go along with is size 15 feet! 🤤🤤🤤
The US is the greatest economy in the world. End of story
Get a haircut!
⬜wool socks to sleep=no coffee needed the next day due to improved sleep quality🟠⬛⬜
My feet "need to breathe", so no socks or shirt in bed. I sleep in my skivvies only.
Does the wool sock have to be on the foot?… or …
@@KorthyV2 🤣🤣🤣😂 oh God my sides! Never even crossed my mind. 😂😂