claudia shows humility with regards to whether the Sahm rule will be correct given the oddities that have occured in this cycle which is refreshing for a market forecaster
Yup,. the Scared Money,.. SELLS to, the "Smart Money" on Major Dip's and, the FED will Come to their Rescue,.. Soon ! The Smart Money, "Knows, STUFF" And,.. IS Always,.. PATIENT !!!
Don’t panic those people about to be walked out of Intel, Pacer and John Deere. When are these people gonna be walked out of their blessed positions in this wacky economy
It's the number of people losing their job that matters. Whether it's a .9% change from 3.4% , ( a 33% change in the unemployment rate) , or whether it's a .9% change from a 5% Starting point ( a 20% change in the unemployment rate) , it's still the same ,call it , 1 million people who no longer contribute to the economy. I'm surprised by that line of inquiry from the host.
imagine what she says off camera...the truth. A robot can't legally pay taxes nor pay for goods...only humans can. I hope the folks at the top are aware of this.
Yeah, just wait two more months as unemployment accelerates and we're DEFINITELY in a recession. She is right, Fed should have cut in July and market is reacting as such.
@@jonscrivner9087 yes it does. Several leading indicators have been pointing to a recession for a while. It's not just this leading indicator discussed in this video. A recession is currently in play
Actually, it is way higher unemployment rate than what's being reported. we have been in a recession heading for a depression and everyone in the real world already knows this
@@matthewmark7224 Too much stimulus can cause mega inflation. When our bonds/treasuries stop being bought around the planet you will know what I mean. I respectfully disagree, printing money at this pace will have consequences.
@3:51 Is 4.3% unemployment and 3.0% CPI YOY somehow an emergency meeting rate cut situation? I mean, how disconnected from reality does one have to be to suggest this is an emergency situation. Absolutely 1000% this would send markets into an all out panic. They'll assume something else not known to markets is about to go into a full on meltdown. Stock market will implode, credit markets will freeze, and on and on. What a stupid thing to suggest.
The problem is that house prices havent come down very much. They need to hold rates higher than expected. .5% means nothing really. but rates should stay above 4% for a long time.
@@bytemuncher1 ,. Economy Wise,.. TRUMP would Be, the way, BETTER,. Choice ! But this WASN'T Done for, Trump's gain as, the FED WAS,. just, way, WAY to SLOW to,.. "Pull the Trigger" on,.. Rate Cuts !!! Does Point Out that,. Trump's the BEST on,. the Economy,. IMO !
They are pretty consistent about having changes in rates “possible” only on specific pre planned dates. I haven’t heard of rate changes between Federal Reserve meetings
@@douglash.8862 a president plays a very small role in what happens. the economy we have in 2024 some of it in the pot goes back to 2009 / 2011 as we were digging up its enormous and huge its much bigger then one guy and arguably if not of all time at least since the year 1900 we have not cleaned our economic cycle in 15 years
The bond markets largely determine the rates. And look it up...rates dropped more this week than the Fed will be cutting at any point. And that's the way it should be.
Wait until they realize they cant kick the can and Medicare is insolvent in about 6 years and Social Security is insolvent in about 9......and Debt expense is now our #2 budget line item. I hear the piper calling to be paid.......
It tends to be *other* economists who name things after someone. She simply came up a way of looking at labor market data that seems to show patterns that align with recessions. Maybe that pattern will hold this time too.
Overall it's still a low unemployment number and yes it's only one data point so I don't see the big deal on just unemployment when we have so many other critical factors going on right now. I don't plan on using this indicator and I have never even heard of it till now. Like I mentioned in my own recent videos we need better leadership and no matter who we choose right now for presidency, the candidates and policies are going to be self-centered and awful! Albert (Owner) at $mart Investing
Somehow she gets through this entire interview without a single mention of inflation.
Dr. Sahm gives clear, factual commentary - highly recommended!
claudia shows humility with regards to whether the Sahm rule will be correct given the oddities that have occured in this cycle which is refreshing for a market forecaster
We're all going to die!! Sahm rule is triggered!!
@@imtryinghere1 😂😂😂
@@jimbush80528pretty much, things are not good
What a narcissist !
Everyone dies at some point
@@Ubbs24 Arent they good though?
Bring her back mroe often. She articulates her facts well.
This is what wealth transfer looks like
Yup,. the Scared Money,.. SELLS to, the "Smart Money" on Major Dip's and, the FED will Come to their Rescue,.. Soon !
The Smart Money, "Knows, STUFF" And,.. IS Always,.. PATIENT !!!
We're gonna do some wars now, huh?
Ww3 is looming 😅 seriously 😳
Is she BLINKING in morse code?
Please note everyone in Washington is eatung well. Middle America NO!
stonks only goes up
I think deflation is good for people on fixed income and the poor but not good for wall street.
Don’t panic those people about to be walked out of Intel, Pacer and John Deere. When are these people gonna be walked out of their blessed positions in this wacky economy
It's the number of people losing their job that matters. Whether it's a .9% change from 3.4% , ( a 33% change in the unemployment rate) , or whether it's a .9% change from a 5%
Starting point ( a 20% change in the unemployment rate) , it's still the same ,call it , 1 million people who no longer contribute to the economy.
I'm surprised by that line of inquiry from the host.
Labor force participation is still low
How about tax write offs for employers hiring and maintaining employees? Also,less terminations? Just a thought
Let's hope that Dow index will drop by 1000 points today, thus paving the way for further rate cut.
Sounds to me like you are monitoring "the totality of the data".
We've been in a recession since 2007, it's even a recession of buying power
imagine what she says off camera...the truth.
A robot can't legally pay taxes nor pay for goods...only humans can. I hope the folks at the top are aware of this.
Huh?
@@hectron-gon I agree, but I don’t think AI is causing this problem
@@hectron-gon you’re a student of game theory I see. ✊🏼
I actually think the Fed is still on track. What’s the point of a .25 cut in July when you can make a 1.00 cut in September?
@@youngpower24 the point is there’s a major lag, the longer they wait the more damage is done regardless of how much they cut in the future
Yeah, just wait two more months as unemployment accelerates and we're DEFINITELY in a recession. She is right, Fed should have cut in July and market is reacting as such.
Last cut that large was start of Covid and before that 2008. If they are cutting that large we got bigger issues
@@userJohnDoe362 seems like it could be self-inflicted problems over next 2 months..
@@bytemuncher1So what I saw on Fed Day looked like pop to me. Was I hallucinating?
We are in a recession and have been for awhile now...Anyone thinking otherwise is an absolute fool
Explain that a little further
@@kid_a6859all we can know for sure is that op prefers conservative media to left wing media
😐
@@BeTheBallDanny The data doesn't show that.
@@jonscrivner9087 yes it does. Several leading indicators have been pointing to a recession for a while. It's not just this leading indicator discussed in this video. A recession is currently in play
@@tylersanders6298 Real GDP grew 2.8% (annualized) in the second quarter. That came out last week. We're not in a recession.
we are all screwed! 😰😑
in canada its 6.4% and thats with justin growing the federal government by 40% !!!LOL!!!!!
I think it sage to beware both overfit models and noisy observations.
Willful ignorance keeps us going. What world are they lying to themselves about?
Up ahead, the gate. Thru it, we will go.
Wait til they revise jobs down again too. They always cookin the books when they're released.
Nation dependent on private company's decision on rate cut 😂
The last 24 hours have been really exciting: Independence Day.
Nutritional deficiency and ocular myokymia?
The sahm rule must of triggered her eyes.
May want to lay off the coffee and get some yoga along with some minerals. Get some sleep
She's so happy markets care about her rule. lol
The stock market people is always upset the party is over, and yells, FED come reacue me.
You don't see government slowing its spending down, it's always the people who have nothing to do with government's bullshit, suffer......
True that hey. We don't pay taxes, they TAKE taxes.
Suffer how?
If government spending stopped, that’s less money going to businesses. When they spend money, someone is earning it
she looks like a robot the way how she blinks and moves her eyes
Take profits and T-Bill and chill.
Time to spin.
Inflation is much worse that a measly quarter of flat gdp
Actually, it is way higher unemployment rate than what's being reported. we have been in a recession heading for a depression and everyone in the real world already knows this
So you’re saying that you prefer conservative media
This could be a depression not a recession
too much stimulus for that to happen.
@@matthewmark7224 Too much stimulus can cause mega inflation. When our bonds/treasuries stop being bought around the planet you will know what I mean. I respectfully disagree, printing money at this pace will have consequences.
Probably not either
Don't worry, money printers gonna go BRRRRRTTT. Just like Kamala and Maduro's ballot printers LOL
What evidence do you see that brings you to a conclusion that a depression is here or is coming in the next 12 months or so
I have very little faith in these people that spend their lives manipulating markets for self gain.🤔
The problem is that the FED needs to raise rates to get this clown market under control.
She is trying to not start a panic while being honest. But we should probably be in a panic right now. There is a lot of momentum behind this.
@@luciousalpaca6481 check your bond market and yield curve....all , NOT good for a recovery
Recession is here!
@3:51 Is 4.3% unemployment and 3.0% CPI YOY somehow an emergency meeting rate cut situation? I mean, how disconnected from reality does one have to be to suggest this is an emergency situation. Absolutely 1000% this would send markets into an all out panic. They'll assume something else not known to markets is about to go into a full on meltdown. Stock market will implode, credit markets will freeze, and on and on. What a stupid thing to suggest.
💯 - UPRANK
The fes got greedy, suprise suprise 🙄
Sorry, this time is not different.
Sahm or Sham? She (and the administration) wants rate cut.
The problem is that house prices havent come down very much. They need to hold rates higher than expected. .5% means nothing really. but rates should stay above 4% for a long time.
Housing costs have been a major driver of weakened consumer spending
What will the unemployment be by August
Historically, unemployment rate uptrends like the one we’re seeing tend to accelerate
I think the more important question is what will the July revisions be next month?
How is it one data point
When it’s ticked up every month for awhile
GRT x OP x STX
Yes no one panic 😈
Are they really going to wait till September to cut rates now??
Almost seems like they're trying to hand Trump the win
@@bytemuncher1 ,. Economy Wise,.. TRUMP would Be, the way, BETTER,. Choice !
But this WASN'T Done for, Trump's gain as, the FED WAS,. just, way, WAY to SLOW to,.. "Pull the Trigger" on,.. Rate Cuts !!!
Does Point Out that,. Trump's the BEST on,. the Economy,. IMO !
They are pretty consistent about having changes in rates “possible” only on specific pre planned dates. I haven’t heard of rate changes between Federal Reserve meetings
@@douglash.8862 a president plays a very small role in what happens. the economy we have in 2024 some of it in the pot goes back to 2009 / 2011 as we were digging up its enormous and huge its much bigger then one guy and arguably if not of all time at least since the year 1900 we have not cleaned our economic cycle in 15 years
The bond markets largely determine the rates. And look it up...rates dropped more this week than the Fed will be cutting at any point. And that's the way it should be.
Hans-Werner Sahm.
Real numbers are finally being shown ....the market has been in recession for over a year ... realistically
I think my portfolio statements would indicate otherwise.
Claudia is awesome
Awesome screwball
Yes. She did a good job of explaining that while this doesn’t guarantee recession, it’s not an indication to ignore
The government blew up this bubble.
Wait till Yellen starts to collect $3 trillion a year to fight global warming
Wait until they realize they cant kick the can and Medicare is insolvent in about 6 years and Social Security is insolvent in about 9......and Debt expense is now our #2 budget line item. I hear the piper calling to be paid.......
Another narcissistic economist
It tends to be *other* economists who name things after someone.
She simply came up a way of looking at labor market data that seems to show patterns that align with recessions. Maybe that pattern will hold this time too.
Biden 2024. LETS GO.
That was then, homie.
@@noremacmada I'm a Biden supporter. You expect me to remember something?
@@aguyinavan6087 🎵 Meet the new boss, same as the old boss 🎵
Zen Koan:
If the unemployed get a “virus” and 💀 do they count on the spreadsheet?
Overall it's still a low unemployment number and yes it's only one data point so I don't see the big deal on just unemployment when we have so many other critical factors going on right now. I don't plan on using this indicator and I have never even heard of it till now. Like I mentioned in my own recent videos we need better leadership and no matter who we choose right now for presidency, the candidates and policies are going to be self-centered and awful!
Albert (Owner) at $mart Investing