Recession outlook: Why the economy could end up in a recession in 3, 6 months, Claudia Sahm explains

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  • Опубликовано: 8 сен 2024
  • The July jobs report fell short of expectations, with the US economy adding only 114,000 jobs compared to the forecasted 175,000. The unemployed rate also increased to 4.3%, which is the highest level in about three years.
    Yahoo Finance's Madison Mills explains that the Sahm rule "says that if the three month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point from the previous that signals the start of a recession." Yahoo Finance sat down with the creator of the Sahm rule, Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Federal Reserve Board economist, to discuss the state of the economy.
    Sahm notes that she doesn't think we are in a recession right now, but she believes "that the increases in the unemployment rate and the softening in the labor market is worrisome... and we could end up in a recession in say 3 months, 6 months," which Sahm "is very concerned about."
    Sahm adds that "the Sahm rule is probably over playing it right now, to some extent, just because of... a lot of shocks we're working through," such as the pandemic and labor force.
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Комментарии • 272

  • @DavidCovington-st2id
    @DavidCovington-st2id 27 дней назад +304

    The recession scare is surreal and the market is really panicking at this moment and I'm worried what effect this frenzy could have on my portfolio of about 80k. Could you make any recommendations on how I could preserve my portfolio during this period and also make profit from the market situation?

    • @mikey43221
      @mikey43221 27 дней назад +3

      Well, this could be a very good time to make profit from the market. But because it's a frantic period, it's often best you employ the service of a financial advisor. I was up almost 90% during the COVID crash because I was working with one.

    • @SeanTalkoff
      @SeanTalkoff 27 дней назад +2

      I had a similar experience. A financial advisor could really help you re-adjust and identify blindspots that you yourself do not notice, like mine did in advising me during COVID on how the pandemic will shape things, and I made it out big and still make up to at least 20k in dividend per month.

    • @tmer831
      @tmer831 27 дней назад +3

      Wow, that's incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment please.

    • @SeanTalkoff
      @SeanTalkoff 27 дней назад +2

      My CFA ’’ Sharon Ann Meny, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..

    • @tmer831
      @tmer831 27 дней назад +1

      Thanks, i did a quick web search and i found Sharon, i hope she responds to my mail.

  • @GaryNicka
    @GaryNicka 26 дней назад +260

    I foresee a recession lasting a while, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates again. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate and market crash, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.

    • @kurtKking
      @kurtKking 26 дней назад +3

      Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.

    • @donovantobs
      @donovantobs 26 дней назад +3

      I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.

    • @Monicamonasky-
      @Monicamonasky- 26 дней назад

      How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?

    • @donovantobs
      @donovantobs 26 дней назад

      Her name is. 'GRISELDA ELENA JEMMOTT’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @Monicamonasky-
      @Monicamonasky- 26 дней назад

      I just curiously searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you

  • @JefferyDuns
    @JefferyDuns Месяц назад +440

    People try to predict the economy not realizing it is not a capitalistic market, its a command economy, central planning! my concern is, instead of having much dollar in bank that could lose value to inflation, do I save in gold to reserve and grow wealth for now, or just hang on?

    • @Nernst96
      @Nernst96 Месяц назад +1

      truth is that gold serves as an inflation hedge in the long run, but not profitable in the short run. only thing you can predict is a strong effort of wealth transfer from the people to the powerful. luckily some folks find solution in financial advisors

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- Месяц назад +1

      That makes sense. I’ve been using a financial market expert for two years now and I own a six-figure diversified portfolio from investing in stocks. I want to diversify more this year, though.

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk Месяц назад +2

      I really want to get in with a financial advisor this year, especially as all markets are hitting lows. I don't want to be too optimistic and end up losing everything.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- Месяц назад

      'Tracy Annette Webb' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk Месяц назад +1

      Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

  • @LiamOlivia-4
    @LiamOlivia-4 Месяц назад +147

    I'm 54 and my wife and I are VERY worried about our future, gas and food prices rising daily. We have had our savings dwindle with the cost of living into the stratosphere, and we are finding it impossible to replace them. We can get by, but can't seem to get ahead. My condolences to anyone retiring in this crisis, 30 years nonstop just for a crooked system to take all you worked for.

    • @claircourtway
      @claircourtway Месяц назад +1

      I feel your pain mate, as a fellow retiree, I’d suggest you look into passive index fund investing and learn some more. For me, I had my share of ups and downs when I first started looking for a consistent passive income so I hired an expert advisor for aid, and following her advice, I poured $30k in value stocks and digital assets, Up to 200k so far and pretty sure I'm ready for whatever comes..

    • @LiamOlivia-4
      @LiamOlivia-4 Месяц назад +1

      @@claircourtway That's actually quite impressive, I could use some Info on your FA, I am looking to make a change on my finances this year as well..

    • @claircourtway
      @claircourtway Месяц назад

      @@LiamOlivia-4 My advisor is VICTORIA CARMEN SANTAELLA;

    • @claircourtway
      @claircourtway Месяц назад +1

      You can look her up online

    • @claircourtway
      @claircourtway Месяц назад

      Nah I Can't say I can relate, VICTORIA CARMEN SANTAELLA charge is one-off and pretty reasonable when compared to what I benefit in returns.

  • @Josh-hz8vz
    @Josh-hz8vz Месяц назад +151

    We’re fucking 4 years since the pandemic. Stop blaming everything on that. We are in a recession.

    • @ryann8348
      @ryann8348 Месяц назад +12

      @@Josh-hz8vz I'm not sure why you think 4 years is enough to snap back from something like that

    • @jmajors5946
      @jmajors5946 Месяц назад +10

      You obviously have no idea of the definition of recession.

    • @chrisdouglas1158
      @chrisdouglas1158 Месяц назад

      @@ryann8348 because the US goverment have been saying for years that their policies helped full recovery from the pandemic and it was all 100% down to them and bidenomics.
      You cant then go blame the pandemic (trump) for whats happening now

    • @chrisdouglas1158
      @chrisdouglas1158 Месяц назад +14

      ​@@jmajors5946well the white house and the us media changed the definition a about 2 years ago.
      A recession is defined as a fall in GDP in two quarters ,
      this happed back in 2022 in the USA. But then for some reason the white house and nearly every US mainstream news outlet said that this is no longer the definition of a recesion and that the us wasnt "actually" in a recession 😂

    • @thegamerboneless2864
      @thegamerboneless2864 Месяц назад +1

      The market takes equal measures to move, the pandemic used turbo fuel and for the way up it takes a toll, equal effort is required. It takes time to build and time to fall. Decisions from years ago affect the market today. So yes the pandemic is part of the recovery.

  • @Madridstrat
    @Madridstrat Месяц назад +266

    How can we protect ourselves against the anticipated financial reset for 2024? What are the best strategies to make our portfolios resilient against this potential reset? I’m particularly concerned about my $110k stock portfolio.

    • @Duttonmuffins
      @Duttonmuffins Месяц назад +1

      Knowledgeable investors know how to invest during a crisis to reduce risk and maximize returns. If you can't manage these conditions, consult an experienced market strategist.

    • @JesseMayhill
      @JesseMayhill Месяц назад +3

      Yes, that's true. I learned this in 2020 when I lost almost everything. But then I started using a financial advisor, and now I make at least $25-30k every quarter, so I’ve continued investing with an advisor.

    • @Bunnydrille
      @Bunnydrille Месяц назад

      Glad I found this discussion. My portfolio hasn't done well lately, and I think I need a financial advisor. How can I reach the person helping you?

    • @JesseMayhill
      @JesseMayhill Месяц назад +6

      Sure, 'Melissa Elise Robinson' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details on the web to set up an appointment.

    • @Bunnydrille
      @Bunnydrille Месяц назад

      Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up immediately. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her.

  • @Cognitoman
    @Cognitoman Месяц назад +39

    We’re already in one… it’s been one since 2022…. What the hell you all smoking ?

    • @Infotainment-cb6cy
      @Infotainment-cb6cy Месяц назад +2

      Well yes, it has been one, then got a little better, then got worse again, and now recession returns.

  • @geraldt331
    @geraldt331 Месяц назад +178

    I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.

    • @Jadechurch-ql3do
      @Jadechurch-ql3do Месяц назад

      There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.

    • @yeslahykcim
      @yeslahykcim Месяц назад

      I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

    • @lucaswilliams9992
      @lucaswilliams9992 Месяц назад

      Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one.

    • @yeslahykcim
      @yeslahykcim Месяц назад

      Lucinda Margaret Crist is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @brianwhitehawker1756
      @brianwhitehawker1756 Месяц назад

      Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

  • @MrGgabber
    @MrGgabber Месяц назад +22

    "I know how to get out of a recession. Change the definition of recession!"
    Democrat policy

  • @Top10Tibbz
    @Top10Tibbz Месяц назад +17

    Her eyes were going crazy...

  • @jeeves3600
    @jeeves3600 Месяц назад +6

    " You can't hide, your lying eyes" Eagles.

  • @2MANYCARS
    @2MANYCARS Месяц назад +73

    Are we not in one already?? tsk tsk tsk....

    • @WinnieTingal
      @WinnieTingal Месяц назад +5

      Yeah try to pay your mortgage by gas eat! Thanks KAMALALA

    • @alexandrinhos9958
      @alexandrinhos9958 Месяц назад +3

      Economy is strong. Don't worry.

    • @dusankacurak9520
      @dusankacurak9520 Месяц назад +5

      @@alexandrinhos9958 jobs created by goverment and helicopter money :D btw why did gold make new all time highs ?????

    • @NeroX-nh8se
      @NeroX-nh8se Месяц назад

      @@alexandrinhos9958 yes, US economy is very strong

    • @roadking.118
      @roadking.118 Месяц назад

      @@NeroX-nh8se how?

  • @jaybird7534
    @jaybird7534 Месяц назад +36

    We've been in recession since last October.

    • @Jeremymich1985
      @Jeremymich1985 Месяц назад +4

      More like 2022 when started these interest hikes.

    • @sunrizen
      @sunrizen Месяц назад

      Oh good, then it is almost over and we already had the market sell off in 2022. Back to all time highs.

    • @brendanhall5298
      @brendanhall5298 Месяц назад

      That was my thoughts, the yield curve seems to suggest recession since last October, it seems government want to hide the fact to try stabilise the economy.

    • @joefenlon9162
      @joefenlon9162 Месяц назад

      @@jaybird7534 wede in a vibecession

    • @user-gz3kv8xx8q
      @user-gz3kv8xx8q Месяц назад

      That's when i was laid off 😂😂

  • @trentp8035
    @trentp8035 Месяц назад +17

    They will say anything besides recession, got to protect their candidate.

    • @badpuppy3
      @badpuppy3 Месяц назад

      FACTS:
      July 2018 Trump's Economy only added 55,000 jobs
      Sept 2018 Trump's Economy only added 87,000 jobs
      Nov 2018 Trump's Economy only added 97,000 jobs
      February 2019 Trump's Economy only added 20,000 jobs
      July 2019 Trump's Economy only added 90,000 jobs
      And there were fears in 2018 during the Trump Administration that we were going into a recession.
      In fact, Biden has never had a monthly jobs report under 100K, and Trump has had several even BEFORE we talk about the millions of jobs lost under the Trump administration during the Pandemic.

  • @benjamindavidson22
    @benjamindavidson22 Месяц назад +3

    On a brighter note, every recession comes with an equal chance in the fin-mrkt if you're early informed and equipped, I've read folks amass up to 7 figures during these times, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Truthfully, I’d need guide please for a boomer like me to attain such amount for retirement, we definitely need to benefit from this situation somehow.

    • @carolpaige2
      @carolpaige2 Месяц назад +3

      stocks are pretty volatile now, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine, where as you can save yourself the hassle as well time by seeking professional guidance

    • @frankbarnes22
      @frankbarnes22 Месяц назад +3

      Well agreed, investing is plain sailing if you have good conviction indeed. I remember early 2020 during the lockdown, got laid off and needed to stay afloat, hence I researched for advisors and immediately found someone remarkable. As of today, my reserve of $500k has yielded into a comfortable 7-figure which we intend reallocating into gold, recalling the 1929 crash.

    • @phillogan1
      @phillogan1 Месяц назад +3

      I just started a few months back, I'm going for long term, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it, who’s this advisor you work with?

    • @frankbarnes22
      @frankbarnes22 Месяц назад +2

      Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

    • @phillogan1
      @phillogan1 Месяц назад +3

      Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

  • @LupeBaptista
    @LupeBaptista Месяц назад +102

    The continuously changing economic conditions in our society have made it necessary for thousands of people to find additional sources of income. Personally, I am looking at the stock market to fuel my retirement goal of $2m, my concern is the recent market crash.

    • @fromthebirchwood
      @fromthebirchwood Месяц назад +3

      buying the dip has proven to be profitable although for majority, the solution to their problem can be found only in specialized knowledge hence they seek guidance from well experienced advisors

    • @arlenehill4ril
      @arlenehill4ril Месяц назад +6

      Agreed, despite my rookie knowledge of investing, I have a financial advisor who did the trick in a bit more than 6 months after a lump sum capital of $500k, and I've so far made a fortune. I'm now buying real estates, gold and silver as advised by my FA.

    • @okaydamian
      @okaydamian Месяц назад +1

      @@arlenehill4ril truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

    • @J.woltz48
      @J.woltz48 Месяц назад +3

      truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

    • @arlenehill4ril
      @arlenehill4ril Месяц назад +5

      Karen Lynne Chess is the licensed FA I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.

  • @eXclusive1
    @eXclusive1 Месяц назад +16

    22/23 now 23/24 has been a nightmare for me as a digital contractor in the UK. Stop lying I’ve seen videos globally US, UK, China, Europe of people complaining about no work.

    • @jocelyncooper1738
      @jocelyncooper1738 Месяц назад +9

      Yep, people have been complaining en masse about not being able to find a job since 2022. In the U.S. it’s like every business said they were hiring but rarely actually hired anyone.

    • @hicrhodushicsalta6648
      @hicrhodushicsalta6648 Месяц назад +1

      BreGret

    • @ahmadhuseynli2073
      @ahmadhuseynli2073 Месяц назад

      That is why tourism plummeted and most of flights taking off in these 2 years, most of expenditures and wars happened in these 2 years. There is no sing of recession based on how people spend.

  • @roxiesorrells4552
    @roxiesorrells4552 Месяц назад +43

    We have been in a recession heading for a depression.

    • @sunrizen
      @sunrizen Месяц назад +1

      The world will keep on spinning. The best things in life are free. Enjoy your recession everybody; it wont last long. Rate cuts start in 6 weeks.

    • @PastorIhaza
      @PastorIhaza Месяц назад

      @roxiesorrells4552 They have been covering up the failures of this administration. They can't cover until November. So they will have to show something. For them, showing recession is better than the reality of the depression we all have been living with. Prepare, Prepare, Prepare for a war to cover themselves.

  • @lifeofaproblemsolver479
    @lifeofaproblemsolver479 Месяц назад +8

    Most of the added jobs could be like side gigs that don't pay.

    • @greenmanhulk
      @greenmanhulk Месяц назад

      🤣🤣🤣

    • @stevecordrey1133
      @stevecordrey1133 Месяц назад

      Healthcare, construction, and leisure/hospitality sectors were the top three gainers on the latest job report.

    • @MrGgabber
      @MrGgabber Месяц назад

      A large chunk of low productivity government jobs as well

  • @sociolocomtsac
    @sociolocomtsac Месяц назад +12

    4.3% hardly a recession

    • @alexlopez5800
      @alexlopez5800 Месяц назад +4

      They're freaking out because that's a good start to a recession. If not already

    • @Dowhatsright99
      @Dowhatsright99 22 дня назад

      I’ve been a recruiter for over 20 years and have been very successful. I’m seeing recruiters from all industries being laid off in large numbers. Trust me, that’s not a sign or a strong economy or strong labor market. This is all artificial

    • @sociolocomtsac
      @sociolocomtsac 21 день назад

      @@Dowhatsright99 That's the point of high interest rates. Slowing down the overheated economy.

  • @Bookworm214-y3d
    @Bookworm214-y3d Месяц назад +8

    they wont call it because of election season and it would make harris look bad. if trump wins then yes we are in a recession , if harris wins, the definition of recession will be redefined again 😂

    • @VP-km1ru
      @VP-km1ru Месяц назад

      funny thing is these liberal elites destroy their own place of residence and then run off and infect another republican state...theyre running off to Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, etc etc etc and trying to turn them blue.

  • @Mrjits
    @Mrjits Месяц назад +4

    I feel like the majority of people have been in a “recession” for a while, and there’s a smaller percentage of people who are doing well. The average American is leveraged with debt and default rates are going up and savings going down. People aren’t doing well. Also this person basically said “I know that our metric says we are in a recession, but I’m just gonna disagree with it.” lol.

  • @mistersunday_
    @mistersunday_ Месяц назад +3

    Even the people who make the rules are too afraid of spreading panic

  • @UltimatePokeGamer7
    @UltimatePokeGamer7 Месяц назад +6

    Yay! Let the stock sale begin.

  • @ErnestP21
    @ErnestP21 Месяц назад +12

    The eyes never lie

  • @hyperwebster5118
    @hyperwebster5118 Месяц назад +6

    There is something wrong with this graph, that 15% spike should correlate with 2020, not 2013 :/

    • @aliabidi1327
      @aliabidi1327 Месяц назад

      @@hyperwebster5118 your right good sir

    • @TeejSSX16
      @TeejSSX16 Месяц назад +1

      @@hyperwebster5118 that's what I was thinking. The scale for the years is off.

  • @Tehui1974
    @Tehui1974 Месяц назад +2

    Anyone who has studied economics knows that there's a reverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. The unemployment rate being in the 4-5% range is usually considered a good level overall, everything considered.

  • @michaelschiemer3
    @michaelschiemer3 27 дней назад +1

    Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.

  • @nate5102
    @nate5102 Месяц назад +38

    she’s backpedaling . This economy is fuckd

  • @hollywoodnoire
    @hollywoodnoire 14 дней назад +1

    We’re already living in a recession since getting a job is so hard right now

  • @allsportsexpert
    @allsportsexpert Месяц назад +3

    6 weeks ago (2 FOMC meetings) ago, she criticized the Fed not cutting rates. All the economic indicators have been flashing recession for quite a while. According to Danielle DiMartino Booth, the US has been in a recession since 10/2023.

    • @sunrizen
      @sunrizen Месяц назад

      Services are 70% of the economy and have not been in a recession.

    • @allsportsexpert
      @allsportsexpert Месяц назад

      @sunrizen I go with smarter people like Claudia Sahm and Danielle DiNartino Booth, instead of some random.

  • @johntipeti4597
    @johntipeti4597 Месяц назад +2

    i saw a comment that was very simple but very realist, "i am averaging, j powell & the fed screwed up, we should have known the signal when people can't even afford mcdonalds anymore" & for claudia - just wait until the next jobs report comes out

  • @Super_Synthesis
    @Super_Synthesis Месяц назад +2

    Very responsible comments.

  • @Lhunter1911
    @Lhunter1911 Месяц назад +4

    All the eye movement and blinking is not helping me believe what she is saying. She must know something.🤔

  • @jeffreywang8506
    @jeffreywang8506 Месяц назад +20

    Deficit spending & printing $9 trillion is healthy economy?😅

  • @Jeremymich1985
    @Jeremymich1985 Месяц назад +1

    Some think it may not be a recession, and you say we not in the danger zone yet. Essential things, rent hikes food and energy things we need are not affordable today from the American people.

  • @jeffreywang8506
    @jeffreywang8506 Месяц назад +18

    This is an equivalent of saying nothing

    • @GreenNutGuy
      @GreenNutGuy Месяц назад +6

      She's trying to tiptoe around the fact her own signal is definitely showing bad news. Doublespeak.

    • @alexlopez5800
      @alexlopez5800 Месяц назад +1

      She's trying to butter normal people up so she can bring up the fact that the very same person who created this economic red-flag is even saying that it's bad.

  • @JonMeierding-o1r
    @JonMeierding-o1r 29 дней назад

    Looking fabulous Mady. Miss you on Bloomberg ❤

  • @TerranEarth
    @TerranEarth Месяц назад

    I like how Sahm isn't steadfast in terms of her rule working like others are claiming it to be. Definitely got to look at the overall picture and context rather than just a number. She's a smart person for sure.

  • @user-xb9wb8sc9l
    @user-xb9wb8sc9l Месяц назад +1

    Why does she not have more conviction in her own rule?
    We are not only already in a recession but it will be a prolonged one with volatile inflation.

  • @Juddalan88
    @Juddalan88 Месяц назад +5

    no reason for panic at all today. Next week rebounds. NVDA to 150 by earnings

  • @meadhorns89
    @meadhorns89 Месяц назад +1

    Bit confusing…first she says how accurate the Sahm rule is on predicting a recession…and applied to market history it shows we have been inaccurate recession for several months when triggered…..but then she says we are not in a recession now…only that she is concerned we may be in 3 or more months…

  • @andreawahleithner9640
    @andreawahleithner9640 Месяц назад +1

    There is so many more layoffs, since the fed didnt cut rates. Next month unemployment rate will be worst

  • @manojm2864
    @manojm2864 Месяц назад +4

    Since dems are ruling we aren’t in a recession 😂

    • @badpuppy3
      @badpuppy3 Месяц назад +1

      FACTS:
      July 2018 Trump's Economy only added 55,000 jobs
      Sept 2018 Trump's Economy only added 87,000 jobs
      Nov 2018 Trump's Economy only added 97,000 jobs
      February 2019 Trump's Economy only added 20,000 jobs
      July 2019 Trump's Economy only added 90,000 jobs
      And there were fears in 2018 during the Trump Administration that we were going into a recession.
      In fact, Biden has never had a monthly jobs report under 100K, and Trump has had several even BEFORE we talk about the millions of jobs lost under the Trump administration during the Pandemic.

    • @MrGgabber
      @MrGgabber Месяц назад +1

      Just change the definition of recession and boom, recession fixed!

  • @Monkeymeep
    @Monkeymeep Месяц назад

    Seems to me people are panicking about nothing. The jobs report wasn’t great. The U.S economy still added jobs. What they should really be doing is learning how to make tangible products instead of speculating and selling every time something happens.

  • @2113pinch
    @2113pinch 18 дней назад +1

    I don’t think the “new arrivals” are looking for or planning to look for work. Unless crime is recorded as a job. 🤷🏾‍♂️

  • @WORLDCITIZEN2004
    @WORLDCITIZEN2004 Месяц назад +2

    When we get good news ...stock market go up.. Now news is bad so going down.. SMCI and NVDa this month.. market will go up.

  • @NorthernGoshawk
    @NorthernGoshawk Месяц назад

    For the past 2+ years, the rich and economists have been complaining about the jobless rate not being high enough to stem inflation. Where are they now? And why doesn't anyone seem to remember this?

  • @Starpinklittle
    @Starpinklittle Месяц назад

    *For you, is it worth investing in the American ETFs of the S&P 500 with these interest rates now? Or would it be worth waiting for the fed to lower them in September? I want to know before investing.*

  • @TheBooban
    @TheBooban Месяц назад +2

    Wait, what did they say about immigration rate and unemployment rate? How do they measure unemployment? Claiming benefits? What?

    • @WordMadeFlesh777
      @WordMadeFlesh777 Месяц назад +2

      Yes, how many people file for unemployment benefits.

    • @TheBooban
      @TheBooban Месяц назад +1

      @@WordMadeFlesh777 even immigrants?

    • @sociolocomtsac
      @sociolocomtsac Месяц назад +1

      @@WordMadeFlesh777 No that's not how it works.

  • @thespecialkid1384
    @thespecialkid1384 17 дней назад

    One of the main factors contributing to most recessions, is lack of liquidity in banks due to basic logical fallacies in their investments like in 2008, when they went long on the housing market, and the great depression when they went long on different stocs. At the moment a lot of banks are heavily investing in AI stocks and abss, which are likely going to fall in value especially AI stocks, as they are incredibly overvalued.

  • @Euro-GaNationalist-hv1on
    @Euro-GaNationalist-hv1on 12 дней назад

    You seem to neglect that the unemployment rate is caused by too many workers in the current workforce

  • @libertyBuilders
    @libertyBuilders Месяц назад +2

    Joe and Kameltoe’s America!!

  • @robgronsky4466
    @robgronsky4466 Месяц назад +1

    There doesnt need to be a recession, migrations, climate crisis, we have work to do, if we do the work how could there be a recession. We cant go back, we can only go forward.

  • @peterfmodel
    @peterfmodel Месяц назад

    GDP growth has been significant in equities, so for those who lack a position in equities the GDP growth in the US over the last few years have not felt any benefit and i suspect have gone backwards. However what is the real significance of this is expectation. The fed has been talking up an interest rate drop since January, but the data in the last week have hit that expectation in the face big time. That will have a significant impact and if the fed is forced to raise interest rates, I see a recession coming. There is still a lot of debt out there, causing by unprecedented money printing and low interest rates. Eventually it needs to be serviced and high interest rates is not good for that.

  • @mrnatebarnes
    @mrnatebarnes 29 дней назад

    So your indicator says it’s a recession but you’re saying it’s not ? Who paid her to prevent a bank run ?

  • @andrp411
    @andrp411 Месяц назад +2

    Lets go Brandon!!!

  • @FA9082
    @FA9082 Месяц назад +8

    Why does Sahm blink so much when she talks?..Its actually really distracting

    • @GreenNutGuy
      @GreenNutGuy Месяц назад +3

      She's trying to use double speak. It's hard to focus when you're having an Orwellian moment.

    • @jameswalker366
      @jameswalker366 Месяц назад

      @@FA9082 ask ChatGPT. Probably knows.

    • @WordMadeFlesh777
      @WordMadeFlesh777 Месяц назад +8

      Happens when you lie

    • @sociolocomtsac
      @sociolocomtsac Месяц назад +2

      Dry eyes. A lot of academics have it.

    • @rock_oclock
      @rock_oclock Месяц назад

      @@sociolocomtsac 😂😂

  • @jackal6902
    @jackal6902 14 дней назад

    Recession? You misspelled GREATEST DEPRESSION!!

  • @danielkim8685
    @danielkim8685 Месяц назад +2

    1 to 10
    That’s how we do it 😅

  • @kristian8612
    @kristian8612 Месяц назад

    Aren’t we already at the point of no return? Inflation has already done the damage. The cost of goods and assets have leaped way way ahead of wages, independent of the cost of financing. Even with rate cuts ahead of us, it’s hard to see consumer spending making a comeback…and as that continues to deteriorate…companies’ earnings continue to go down…followed by job losses, etc. Rate cuts aren’t necessarily going to reverse this, IMO.

  • @renatomarques264
    @renatomarques264 Месяц назад

    Great interview

  • @jeeves3600
    @jeeves3600 Месяц назад +2

    4.3 percent unemployment? Sounds like a reason to not allow any more newcomers coming into the country. That should improve it.

    • @NorthernGoshawk
      @NorthernGoshawk Месяц назад +1

      Sounds like someone needs to look at a historical unemployment rate chart. From 1950 through today, it's spent most of its time above 5%.

  • @RusuSilva
    @RusuSilva 26 дней назад +3

    The campaign shenanigans from both the red party and blue party is exactly what is stirring up this market panic. I have a little over 250k i wanted to put in the markets but I don’t know what direction to head now.

    • @RichardMoore-jg5tl
      @RichardMoore-jg5tl 26 дней назад +1

      Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.

    • @RossiPopa
      @RossiPopa 26 дней назад +2

      Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.

    • @FusunTumsavas-cq7tp
      @FusunTumsavas-cq7tp 26 дней назад +1

      I could really use the expertise of this advsors

    • @RossiPopa
      @RossiPopa 26 дней назад +1

      Amber Michelle Smith is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

    • @FusunTumsavas-cq7tp
      @FusunTumsavas-cq7tp 26 дней назад +1

      Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.

  • @cartoonclassroomtv
    @cartoonclassroomtv Месяц назад +3

    Dont let these headlines fool you , big money just wants to load up on lower price lol

    • @sunrizen
      @sunrizen Месяц назад +3

      If everyone ignored the headlines, there would never be a sell off. Holding through 2022 worked for me. Just ignore the media and it will be over before you know it, back to all time highs.

  • @kay6257
    @kay6257 Месяц назад +1

    unemployment is more than 10%

  • @williammartin7277
    @williammartin7277 Месяц назад

    We're in a private sector recession but a government expansion.

  • @riverraven7359
    @riverraven7359 Месяц назад

    Looking at fiscal policy without considering wider politics is like watching a stained glass window and ignoring the 747 you can see flying towards you through it....

  • @Jojokicksass2
    @Jojokicksass2 Месяц назад

    Didn’t they change the definition of a recession?…

  • @Kyle__V
    @Kyle__V 15 дней назад

    Are these people serious? 800k jobs just got deleted with the Q2 GDP revision downward lol.

  • @Dowhatsright99
    @Dowhatsright99 22 дня назад

    We are in a recession but it’s being covered up

  • @Mercy-Willmar
    @Mercy-Willmar Месяц назад

    Does she ask and answer her own questions? Yes she does.

  • @12345Wozza
    @12345Wozza 13 дней назад

    So she is ignoring her own rule..great

  • @ElonOwnsU
    @ElonOwnsU Месяц назад +1

    Kamala spokesperson

  • @thegamerboneless2864
    @thegamerboneless2864 Месяц назад

    For me when I see the amount of calls sold and puts bought this last week is concerning. It seems like we may drop another 6% or so. But who knows😂

  • @zvvl3465
    @zvvl3465 Месяц назад +1

    Soft landing my ass 🤣 y’all wouldn’t believe us when we said prepare for possible recession mid 2024 at the earliest, and here we are 🌊🏄‍♀️ can’t catch the peak but you can sell the wave and buy the dip

  • @jamieholsey1106
    @jamieholsey1106 Месяц назад

    Feels like we are already in one .

  • @brendanhall5298
    @brendanhall5298 Месяц назад +2

    Where in the world is inflation coming down 😅

    • @thomascox7404
      @thomascox7404 Месяц назад

      @@brendanhall5298 uk inflation has gone down to 2%

    • @NorthernGoshawk
      @NorthernGoshawk Месяц назад

      U.S. inflation is down to just below 3% as of the most recent report. Not the 2% or lower the fed wants, which is why they didn't cut rates.

    • @Travelwithkugan
      @Travelwithkugan Месяц назад

      Srilanka inflation 85%

  • @alexcastro5081
    @alexcastro5081 27 дней назад +1

    her eyes are tripping me the fu*k out

  • @DanielGoldMcduckRose
    @DanielGoldMcduckRose Месяц назад

    So if crash happened in o8 that’s means it took 6 years too hit a lot

  • @stevecordrey1133
    @stevecordrey1133 Месяц назад

    We all knew the “soft landing” scenario wasn’t very realistic if you considered the historical data. Investors latched onto the AI trade last summer for one last rally in this bull cycle.

  • @jmajors5946
    @jmajors5946 Месяц назад +1

    This is an alarmist clip. One slower job growth month does not equal to an impending recession! I believe the month before was incredibly high, exceeding expectations. We are not in a recession. The definition of recession is 2 quarters of no growth. Relax, breathe, spend, don’t let Republicans lie to you. They know that things need to get worse for Trump to win.

    • @sunrizen
      @sunrizen Месяц назад

      Too much growth is often followed by too little growth. The Fed's job is to keep growth/inflation at a stable sustainable rate. Not an easy task after over stimulating the economy. They need to start cutting rates.

    • @geniouslin2
      @geniouslin2 Месяц назад

      Democrat propaganda spotted😂

  • @adamlaframboise6796
    @adamlaframboise6796 Месяц назад

    This Safe Talk was not in context like she says; she cherry picked all the way through.

  • @BetaBuxDelux
    @BetaBuxDelux Месяц назад

    She’s working hard to spin this as positive. 😂

  • @japhethwg
    @japhethwg Месяц назад

    Don't look up...

  • @blueharvest77
    @blueharvest77 Месяц назад

    3 to 6 months?!
    Some things you just can't get from book learn'n.

  • @MrPresident101
    @MrPresident101 Месяц назад +2

    Looks like she's fallen victim to the "strong and resilient economy" narrative herself countering her own rule. I don't understand the talk about increased labour force participation to disregard the Unemplyment rate? So people who are having to join or rejoin the workforce isn't a cause for concern in itself? If increased immigration is propping up unemplyment numbers, isnt it also propping up GDP? Lol.
    We have a similar but worse situation here in Canada, but only few who actually call it for what it is... By and large its all been "rainbows and sunshine" until recently when it could not be ignored anymore.

    • @ThaRealDeejayThaBarber
      @ThaRealDeejayThaBarber Месяц назад

      Thanks for sharing I always wonder are other places going through the same things as the USA. The ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION thing really messed us up over here and what do you know the USA helps fund the illegals (housing,food,drivers license,credit cards,healthcare etc etc)but not their OWN CITIZENS (especially veterans)in need🤔🤦🏾‍♂️

    • @MrPresident101
      @MrPresident101 Месяц назад +2

      ​@@ThaRealDeejayThaBarberOh we know that all too well here too my friend... Except we've opened up to mass Legal immigration as well in unprecedented numbers. The excuse was to quell "labour shortages"... Well here we are now with no jobs for them either... A small but increasing number move on to other countries or go back home but those are usually the ones who can afford to and we are left with the ones who have little or no alternatives...But hey our ever increasing 6.4% unemployment rate is supposedly because of this and not people losing jobs.. so it's cool right?! Lol. Talk about most "economists" and all governments detached from reality.

  • @AwtaMadik
    @AwtaMadik Месяц назад +1

    It's entertaining watching her backpeddle. She doesn't want to make her liberal friends look bad for screwing us with this economy.

  • @basharjirjees8815
    @basharjirjees8815 Месяц назад

    the rule never crossed 0.5 and the economy didn't go in a recession since it was made lmao. good try not to show panic but everything will crash in few months.
    They paid her so she can say this bs and let here rich friends exit.

  • @ksbkn9719
    @ksbkn9719 Месяц назад +2

    Fed paying her to say no recession 😂😂😂
    Just keep spending money and pay taxes

  • @GwenClyde-iv7et
    @GwenClyde-iv7et Месяц назад

    Which one will you want a recession or a govt shutdown or govt keep running??? while you lose your jobs the govt will continue to be employed🤔🤔
    No one talking about what the govt going to do come September only the election, Powell, recession etc....😢😢.

  • @motei1853
    @motei1853 22 дня назад

    Ha ha she asked give a number 1 to 10 and this lady who invented this gave a lecture except telling us the number

  • @Optimised7
    @Optimised7 Месяц назад

    Could should might maybe I’ve been listening to financial news for the last 3 years, everyone uses hindsight and the truth is no one has a clue, and they all place bets.

  • @ksbkn9719
    @ksbkn9719 Месяц назад

    It was her Chance to be a legend… just say… yes my rules work… we will be in a recession soon. Everyone would be damn… knew it first in a few months

  • @user-gz3kv8xx8q
    @user-gz3kv8xx8q Месяц назад

    Shes like pull your funds but wait till i pull mine guys 😉

  • @Ericmanzur
    @Ericmanzur Месяц назад +2

    Hallelujah 🙌🏻!!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻. I was owing a loan of $49,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery, Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $11,000 and got my payout of $290,500 every month…God bless Mrs Susan Jane Christy ❤️

    • @Nelsonparker-tl4sw
      @Nelsonparker-tl4sw Месяц назад

      Hello!! how do you make such monthly, I’m a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down of myself 😭 because of low finance but I still believe God

    • @PaulaMorgan-nn6wb
      @PaulaMorgan-nn6wb Месяц назад

      Thanks to my co-worker (Carson ) who suggested Ms Susan Jane Christy

  • @Patrick-yh5yd
    @Patrick-yh5yd Месяц назад

    Work as many hours as you can now and save money. In Orlando the democrat mayors have no private money investing here. All Government spending and of course they want to raise tourist taxes.Disney leadership is horrible. The only thing good at Disney is a free drone show at Disney Springs. The parks are to expensive and are half empty.

  • @jeremycharles4596
    @jeremycharles4596 Месяц назад

    I think the Feds paid her a visit 😂

  • @gabrielmotea1039
    @gabrielmotea1039 Месяц назад

    Claudias blinking scares me holy

  • @richardliu7499
    @richardliu7499 Месяц назад

    Let it be a recession and start all over.