It's Official: Unemployment Is About to Hit the Fan

Поделиться
HTML-код
  • Опубликовано: 16 сен 2024
  • A whole bunch of bad data, much of it focused on deterioration in the US labor market (pre-July payrolls). That unleashed huge swings in rates markets and forward rates. One reason for all this is the historical pattern is perfectly clear. What we're seeing right now happens EVERY TIME. No exceptions.
    Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
    FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
    www.federalres...
    Federal Reserve Chair Powell Press Conference July 31
    • FOMC Press Conference ...
    www.eurodollar...
    Twitter: / jeffsnider_edu

Комментарии • 553

  • @raymond-i2v
    @raymond-i2v 10 дней назад +744

    Unemployment is an odd concept in an economy where for so many folks it’s necessary to work multiple jobs just to get by. Loose one and you’re counted as employed but suddenly don’t have enough money to live.

    • @Lucas-t5w4n
      @Lucas-t5w4n 10 дней назад

      The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

    • @Millerj2450
      @Millerj2450 10 дней назад

      Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?

    • @Fred-w7t
      @Fred-w7t 10 дней назад

      Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach

    • @SarahJeffy
      @SarahJeffy 10 дней назад

      I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?

    • @Fred-w7t
      @Fred-w7t 10 дней назад

      Finding financial advisors like Jessica Lee Horst who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

  • @GillerHeston
    @GillerHeston Месяц назад +524

    Don't have a job = can't afford housing.
    Have a job = can't afford housing.
    So why have a job?

    • @austinbar
      @austinbar Месяц назад +47

      I am in my early 60s and retired at 53. Lots of people gave me pushback because they had difficulty grasping the concept of not working if you don’t have to. I looked at my life as stages. I earned everything I have now through a lot of hard work, but I owe it to myself to “stop and smell the roses” in my final stage of life. In my case I left the country after I retired and live in Latin America. It allowed me to get away from all the negative things happening in America while appreciating my new environment. I have yet to meet anyone who regrets retirement.

    • @joshbarney114
      @joshbarney114 Месяц назад +15

      Nice way to retire. For me, I believe retirees who struggle to meet their basic needs are the ones who could not accumulate enough money during their active years to meet their needs. Retirement choices determine a lot of things. My wife and I has spent same number of years in the civil service, she is investing through a wealth manager and myself through the 401k. We both still earning towards having our retirement.

    • @rogerwheelers4322
      @rogerwheelers4322 Месяц назад +9

      It's unfortunate most people don't have such information. I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $800k by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Doesn't matter if the economy is misbehaving; great wealth managers will always make returns.

    • @FabioOdelega876
      @FabioOdelega876 Месяц назад +6

      @@rogerwheelers4322 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?

    • @rogerwheelers4322
      @rogerwheelers4322 Месяц назад +7

      Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you on things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, going over tax benefits, ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

  • @PurpleLEANKrabs
    @PurpleLEANKrabs Месяц назад +146

    Remember you only count as unemployed for the first bit.
    Eventually you aren't counted, job or not

    • @hotrodhunk7389
      @hotrodhunk7389 Месяц назад +8

      That's me! 9 months so far. I could get a job but it would be 1/3 of my last job.
      So with day care it wouldn't really be worth while.
      Wife makes too much to get free daycare so... I guess I just keep applying. Eventually things will get better or much worse and they'll have to do UBI or something else.

  • @hymansahak181
    @hymansahak181 Месяц назад +71

    Part of the big plan: fleece whatever is left from the middle class.

    • @Shawnsrumi
      @Shawnsrumi Месяц назад +1

      Middle-class has an existed for 10 years now

    • @Sil3ntD3ath478
      @Sil3ntD3ath478 Месяц назад +8

      Which hasn’t existed since 2008

    • @dissonanceparadiddle
      @dissonanceparadiddle Месяц назад +3

      if anything you're going to see the lower class become higher and higher for the bar where it will end with a handful of god Emperors and everyone else

    • @blackmetalreki
      @blackmetalreki 29 дней назад +1

      no such thing as a middle class

    • @SorieI
      @SorieI 25 дней назад +1

      Middle class is dead. You either have two incomes to barely make ends meet or you have so much money you're spending it on stupid bs like sports cars.

  • @zvvl3465
    @zvvl3465 Месяц назад +190

    It’s like landing a plane with no wheels, it’s soft up until the point it touches down 🤣

    • @craptacular8282
      @craptacular8282 Месяц назад +3

      Terrain terrain, pull up!

    • @aaronsullivan1628
      @aaronsullivan1628 Месяц назад +2

      Oh…. Can I use that? That’s good.

    • @TechIndustryAnalysis
      @TechIndustryAnalysis Месяц назад +2

      Up vote up vote 😂

    • @xraceboyex
      @xraceboyex Месяц назад

      It's like trying to "softly land" a solid fuel rocket with infinite fuel lol

    • @Demoncorp
      @Demoncorp Месяц назад

      ​@xraceboyex what could go wrong 😅

  • @rnskfamily7672
    @rnskfamily7672 Месяц назад +106

    They are laying off 45+ yr Olds In middle management making 150k +. Looking to hire college grads for 60k or outsource to Mumbai for 6k. Tough decisions to make for Whitemen sitting inside glassdoors.

    • @sewnsew6770
      @sewnsew6770 Месяц назад +7

      Like that “whitemen”

    • @rnskfamily7672
      @rnskfamily7672 Месяц назад +30

      @sociolocomtsac let them layoff 45 yr Olds. Let's see everything collapse. A job market dependent on kids alone or college grads is unsustainable.

    • @sociolocomtsac
      @sociolocomtsac Месяц назад

      @@rnskfamily7672 The ones that are not producing enough value will have to just take a pay cut, consumption will slow down, inflation will go down, house prices will come down, economy will suffer for several quarters and then we'll be back on track. Many only got the raise due to boomers retiring and there not being enough workers in the short-run.

    • @WPFreeinternet
      @WPFreeinternet Месяц назад

      ​@@rnskfamily7672
      Tick tock, your life jewel has turned black.

    • @gregorysagegreene
      @gregorysagegreene Месяц назад

      ​@@sociolocomtsac My E-R diagram on the finals was top of class at age 57.

  • @SaratogaontheAT
    @SaratogaontheAT Месяц назад +133

    Outstanding as always. You blow the doors off; CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX Business etc. They are a joke.

    • @billspooks
      @billspooks Месяц назад +9

      CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX Business etc., are similar to "CONTROLLED OPPOSITION".

    • @andreast.8243
      @andreast.8243 Месяц назад

      As if mainstream media was our friends to tell the truth to begin with

    • @VERITASPUREBLOOD
      @VERITASPUREBLOOD Месяц назад +1

      zero sum game now, get out of the financial system into real assets or regret it later

    • @valuetainer3437
      @valuetainer3437 Месяц назад

      they are professional bullshitters
      a recession was a certainty and everybody knew that

    • @regularbob
      @regularbob Месяц назад +1

      ask him to explain why yields are falling. When they say that the sky is falling while yields tumble lower I just turn the volume down lol. If everything is so bad then why did the 10 YR Yield take a dump this week??

  • @mikemarshall9470
    @mikemarshall9470 Месяц назад +82

    Safe and effective...😊
    Inflation is transient...😅😅
    Soft landing...😂😂😂
    This time is different...😂😆😅🤣🤣🤣🤣

    • @juan69508
      @juan69508 Месяц назад +5

      ..."he was just having a bad day/ a cold"

    • @guitaringjarmin
      @guitaringjarmin Месяц назад +6

      *Laughs like Kamala Harris*

  • @shawn576
    @shawn576 Месяц назад +206

    Intel announce suspending their dividend entirely. That means the economy is doing well, right guys?

    • @TrashwareArt
      @TrashwareArt Месяц назад +32

      Intel is not making good products anymore, not like they used to. People want AMD cpus and NVIDIA gpus

    • @jkmarshall3553
      @jkmarshall3553 Месяц назад +3

      Just saw that. Dang!!!

    • @KorthyV2
      @KorthyV2 Месяц назад +2

      @@TrashwareArtprocessors…..

    • @tosgem
      @tosgem Месяц назад +17

      As Trashware said, this is not so much an economy problem (although I'm not disagreeing with the economy issues l) as it is an Intel problem. They are toast. Not only have they been behind AMD in CPU performance and efficiency since 2018, and lost desktop and server marketshare hand over fist for 5 years, but in their efforts to catch up (which they have sunk billions into) they have made some massive errors. The worst is that it's emerging they were pushing their CPU's too hard in terms of clock speed and temperature in an effort to compete, and now with CPU's around 2 years old there are failure rates in the 90% range for some models. Many are out of warranty and technically they can get away with it, but it is going to burn millions of bridges, it is destroying their reputation. They are really stuck because they can't even give people free replacement CPU's because they changed the socket and chipset since then. They no longer make CPU's that are compatible with the millions of motherboards that people have their old CPU's on. There are rumours that Intel is trying to spin up old fab processes to start making last gen CPU's as replacements. This alone costs hundreds of millions, and it takes factory space and personell away from working on the latest gen.... which they already have production issues with!
      On top of this they have missed the Artificial Intelligence trend as that is largely a GPU thing, and NVIDIA and AMD are and were streets ahead on GPU's.
      Intel is tanking. I wouldn't touch their stock with a bargepole and the only thing that surprises me is that they aren't suffering even more already, in terms of layoffs and share price. They are being propped up. EDIT Think of it this way - Intel just went sideways and down through 5 years of some of the most manic, stimulated, Bullish markets we have seen. Barely survived it. How are they going to go in a multi year recession?!

    • @joshuakramer5661
      @joshuakramer5661 Месяц назад +3

      Intel is building a ENORMOUS facility in Columbus, Ohio as we speak if there products stink you wouldn’t know it with the size of this complex! I think the economy is sliding south!

  • @yoshu4221
    @yoshu4221 Месяц назад +20

    The state of the job market has been awful for a while now. Just people have tried to ride it out and nothing has changed. It's demoralizing as hell when you know half the job postings aren't even real. If you get an interview at all there's going to be 6 or more rounds of it that will likely end in rejection. And to top it off thousands of people are all applying for a single position.

  • @Elizabethwells-q7f
    @Elizabethwells-q7f 29 дней назад +143

    I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?

    • @Agatha.wayne0
      @Agatha.wayne0 29 дней назад +7

      In my opinion, now is not the moment to rely on hearsay. Every individual, regardless of their level of experience as an investor OR in a financial market, requires guidance at some stage.

    • @Olivia-z5c
      @Olivia-z5c 29 дней назад +5

      It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

    • @DhanaPayar
      @DhanaPayar 29 дней назад +4

      this sounds considerable! think you know any advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

    • @Olivia-z5c
      @Olivia-z5c 29 дней назад +3

      Finding financial advisors like Jessica Lee Horst who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

    • @Jasonshelton-
      @Jasonshelton- 29 дней назад +2

      Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I investigated her well before using her services. Considering her résumé, she appears competent.

  • @ericweber4446
    @ericweber4446 Месяц назад +69

    Fast food industry and restaurants are going out of biasness!

  • @andrewrivera4029
    @andrewrivera4029 Месяц назад +106

    And inflation is still raging, wake me up when ribeyes are 8 bucks an lb, gas is at 2 bucks a gallon and a Big Mac meal is 6 bucks!

    • @nanzsanders
      @nanzsanders Месяц назад +25

      might be a long slumber

    • @angelikac6767
      @angelikac6767 Месяц назад +10

      That's gona be awhile, better bed down in ur fallout shelter

    • @verzeda
      @verzeda Месяц назад +2

      AI automation will make these and many other things a reality

    • @sociolocomtsac
      @sociolocomtsac Месяц назад +11

      Gas hasn't been $2 since 2005, even in Texas. You can get a pound of ribeye for $8, chuck for $5; if you can't, you're shopping in the wrong places.

    • @smellybearc7411
      @smellybearc7411 Месяц назад +2

      Keep sleeping

  • @Bestofmykind46
    @Bestofmykind46 Месяц назад +192

    Larry Burkett's book on "Giving and Tithing" drew me closer to God and helped my spirituality. 2020 was a year I literally lived it. I cashed in my life savings and gave it all away. My total giving amounted to 40,000 dollars. Everyone thought I was delusional. Today, 1 receive 85,000 dollars every two months. I have a property in Calabasas, CA, and travel a lot. God has promoted me more than once and opened doors for me to live beyond my dreams. God kept to his promises to and for me

    • @Hollylloyd970
      @Hollylloyd970 Месяц назад

      There's wonder working power in following Kingdom principles on giving and tithing. Hallelujah!

    • @PetersonFred970
      @PetersonFred970 Месяц назад

      But then, how do you get all that in that period of time? What is it you do please, mind sharing?

    • @MeganWells-vk4he
      @MeganWells-vk4he Месяц назад

      It is the digital market. That's been the secret to this wealth transfer. A lot of folks in the US and abroad are getting so much from it, God has been good to my household Thank you Jesus

    • @MeganWells-vk4he
      @MeganWells-vk4he Месяц назад

      Big thanks to Ms. Susan Jane Christy❤️✨💯May God bless Christy Fiore services,she have changed thousands of lives globally

    • @RachelGulden684
      @RachelGulden684 Месяц назад

      How can I start this digital market, any guidelines and how can I reach out to her?

  • @countdown2xstacy
    @countdown2xstacy Месяц назад +37

    “Strike at the stroke of midnight.
    Dance on the bones till the girls say when.
    Pickup what’s left of daylight, when Josie comes home”

  • @nalivkin-ls3pg
    @nalivkin-ls3pg Месяц назад +167

    What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.

    • @Theodore454
      @Theodore454 Месяц назад

      There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist

    • @Matthew-mb6oy
      @Matthew-mb6oy Месяц назад

      I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders

    • @Manselus-c1f
      @Manselus-c1f Месяц назад

      Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.

    • @Matthew-mb6oy
      @Matthew-mb6oy Месяц назад +1

      ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING' is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

    • @Manselus-c1f
      @Manselus-c1f Месяц назад

      Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.

  • @gregorydessingue5625
    @gregorydessingue5625 Месяц назад +30

    I really mean this in the most cynical, non-partisan way (I hate everyone): I really want the Biden WH to be exposed for how anti-honest they’ve been about the economy

    • @cameronscarlett4025
      @cameronscarlett4025 Месяц назад +8

      I'm sure all of the political class saw this coming and knows/knew it was just a matter of time. That being said I'm sure they would all have done the same thing. The best way to tell if a politician is lying is if you see their mouth moving.

    • @FantomMisfit
      @FantomMisfit Месяц назад

      ​@@cameronscarlett4025I am somewhat amused by the absurdity of the lies Kamala is trying to sell though. She says she's gonna end poverty 😂😂😂 no one's gonna be poor anymore she says lol

    • @hundkebab2433
      @hundkebab2433 27 дней назад

      wokies wouldn't like that

  • @philolson5110
    @philolson5110 Месяц назад +5

    I think this is one of your best videos because of its timely relevance and fantastic historical research. Thank you!

  • @whaleinvesting3612
    @whaleinvesting3612 Месяц назад +5

    Extremely informative. This is so much better than any other reporting on macro economy that I ever saw.

  • @BarbaraKurtz-e4z
    @BarbaraKurtz-e4z Месяц назад +10

    Ribeyes are 18a pound and what’s confusing is the difference between areas. .99 cents a can of soup … now 2.49 a can ? ?? Inflation under control? I won’t call that a little hike.

    • @Johanthegnarler
      @Johanthegnarler Месяц назад

      That's not inflation just price gouging. That's how businesses test our wallets. Remember once the ruling class makes us desperate and poor they get to buy everything with the extra cash at steep discounts before letting us breathe a little. It's not a conspiracy, just a perfect alignment of self serving sociopaths doing what they want.

  • @MonetaryRebel
    @MonetaryRebel Месяц назад +4

    Excellent video, as always! Thanks so much man. No one goes as in-depth into the data as you do. You are extremely underrated.

  • @BW-ju2zl
    @BW-ju2zl Месяц назад +10

    Seems like someone is making up the term non-linear. Once there are 3 data points…it is a trend and no longer non-linear.

  • @wmpx34
    @wmpx34 Месяц назад +11

    I love your graphics lol how the people creep in slowly from the sides

  • @uw2841
    @uw2841 Месяц назад +8

    Excellent correlation, I'm convinced with high confidence. The delay for this cycle is caused by global economy and run away spending for the migrant influx and the wars. Now, business people will see their business is not holding up and will save their jobs by massive layoff. This negatice feedback loop is what we shall experience soon.

  • @brianjohnson8918
    @brianjohnson8918 Месяц назад +30

    Good graph presentation. The Sheeples aren't going to like what comes next. Strong & Resilient is what you want your woman to say about you, not about the labor market.

  • @deseosuho
    @deseosuho Месяц назад +22

    I agree. 0.7% unemployment increase above the last unemployment bottom is the breakpoint I came up with as the best timing mechanism for the moment when unemployment goes parabolic, just looking at Fred datasets over the last fifty years. We hit that milestone in June 2024. Expect 150-300 basis points of unemployment increase between now and Christmas 2025.

    • @StarLight-lt2tm
      @StarLight-lt2tm Месяц назад +1

      What do you think that does to the market?

    • @deseosuho
      @deseosuho Месяц назад +4

      @@StarLight-lt2tm Recessions are almost always bad for equities, with pullbacks ranging from -15% to -50% from the latest all time highs. But who knows if that will be swamped out by government action. We saw ~35% growth in the money supply in less than a year during COVID. If you buy puts and then the Trump/Harris governments decide to turn on the money hose, you'll lose the entire position. Trade at your own risk.

    • @williammorris3815
      @williammorris3815 Месяц назад +3

      To think if they didn’t cook the books, unemployment would be above 20%.

    • @yusufabdur-rahman9233
      @yusufabdur-rahman9233 Месяц назад

      Who else do you watch besides Jeff?

  • @russcontact
    @russcontact Месяц назад +21

    Remember, Bernanke is on record saying there’s no problem in real estate and the banks have healthy balance sheets all the way into 2008. Heck, even I knew something was up in real estate back in late 2006, although no I didn’t have any idea just how bad the banks were. He was the Fed chairman, it’s impossible that he didn’t know, it’s obvious he was just lying

    • @jkmarshall3553
      @jkmarshall3553 Месяц назад +7

      Yep, all the "experts" got it wrong as they kept cheerleading right over the cliff.

    • @sewnsew6770
      @sewnsew6770 Месяц назад +1

      Goldman Sachs was shorting
      They knew

    • @russcontact
      @russcontact Месяц назад

      @@sewnsew6770 They all knew. They kept regular investors in the dark so the banks could extract as much profit and unwind their positions as much as possible before the bottom dropped out. And the exact same thing appears to be happening now. It’s almost as if it’s planned that way in advance… 😏

    • @brianmcglade8164
      @brianmcglade8164 Месяц назад

      It was Greenspan at the helm

    • @gezenews
      @gezenews Месяц назад +1

      @@jkmarshall3553 Until their interested parties have sorted out their position and then "OH GOSH OH GEE we knew it was gonna be bad. Everyone's been talking about how bad it is. And oh gee here it is. Time to recognize its bad. "

  • @Gamesso1slOo0l
    @Gamesso1slOo0l Месяц назад +24

    about to ? unemployment's been 15-20% for years. The books are cooked so why use numbers you know are garbage?

    • @mattsenica5227
      @mattsenica5227 Месяц назад +7

      I agree, the books are way cooked by the time it’s done it will be 50% or more I bet

    • @cheaplaughkennedy2318
      @cheaplaughkennedy2318 Месяц назад +2

      Yep

    • @matthewconnor5483
      @matthewconnor5483 Месяц назад +5

      Exactly. The fact people can't decide if we are in a recession, depression or something else because the numbers are constantly being "revised" is very telling.
      What I do know is that I don't know how people are making it. Food, fuel and everything else is expensive.

    • @gezenews
      @gezenews Месяц назад +3

      Yeah but when this unemployment goes up it is undeniably a problem. They cannot spin it.

  • @markbranch4340
    @markbranch4340 Месяц назад +2

    No matter, the American economy is the strongest in the world. We need a correction in the economy. Stay out of debt and you will be fine. Have a skill that people need and you’ll be fine. Don’t borrow money for crap you don’t need and you will be fine.

  • @virgilmicknet4346
    @virgilmicknet4346 Месяц назад +8

    Take a victory lap Jeff, Friday 8/2/24 just totally confirmed your thesis. 5 of last 6 months revised lower and a disaster for the July #

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi Месяц назад

      Jeff's "thesis" has long since been a proven failure.
      "I'm down eighty percent in my TLT position, but it bounced three percent today; see...I was right!" -Jeff

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi Месяц назад

      "I'm down eighty percent in my TLT position, but it bounced three percent today; see...I was right!" -Jeff

  • @Hodlrun
    @Hodlrun Месяц назад +2

    Great video, loved the historical data deep dive and pattern matching - beautifully explained.

  • @joshuaward592
    @joshuaward592 Месяц назад +5

    Holder onto your shorts! We're in for a doozer!

  • @peterbarrett5496
    @peterbarrett5496 Месяц назад +8

    Bruh I stopped watching yer channel like a year ago. U still saying the same thing

  • @synngames5446
    @synngames5446 7 дней назад

    *Bit of a rant sorry!*
    I am 41 years old, live in NYC and worked all my life since around 16, odd and ends part time jobs and moved into full fields and always had steady solid work. Covid closed down my job and I had to find other means to make it and while the government was 'helping' with inflated unemployment checks, my goal was always get a job. And I did just that and worked for an awesome company that was moving freight along the east cost, small, but they worked well and money was good - This was around the first year under Biden mind you. This company was around for 9 years and they said the BEST years where under trump and they truly made a fortune and the wheels moved the money came in.
    As the job went on and Biden and his Admin got there heels dug in Freight suddenly became to expensive to move: Diesel prices at some points peaked so high filling even a box truck was around $250, And lets not even talk about the line hauls. Then the prices of everything in store sky rocketed but the shippers wanted to pay dirt cheap to move freight, they said it was strain, inflation, lack of workers, whatever they said - If you got $500-$800 a load you where lucky while these trucks where PACKED with over $100,000 worth of goods that, for the most part still would and where selling. To move a box truck would often cost over $500 between fuel, paying the driver and of course needed to sort money for the dispatchers, brokers, and other staff in short: The trucking world tanked under these clowns and the company closed down in may of 2024.
    I have been out of work since, looking, struggling, and searching for anything i have put over 845 job applications. in all for them to be kicked back by some AI or lazy person in an office who wont do there job, I tried to call whatever services I could and the CREAM OF THE CROP answer was: Well, you can take you and your family to a shelter. THAT'S THE ANSWER?! tax paying american who worked more days they I want to ever count is to go to a homeless shelter?!? While these Illegals or baby pushers get free room, board, food AND CHECKS just for being? never working or paying a damn thing of there own?! This is America this is the American dream, "oh you worked your whole life and did everything right? boo boo go to a run down, filthy homeless shelter - now hold our beer while we give Quezla and her 6 kids a whole house and $25,000". Yeah I know they all don't get it, but stop investing money into these other country's by the billions or these illegals or these baby pushers and HELP the people who are trying to do the right thing, it makes me sick and its just getting worse!

  • @KB-si5fx
    @KB-si5fx 23 дня назад

    I'm fortunate enough to have a decent full-time job, no debt, and I'm living as cheaply as I can. I regard myself as being lucky.

  • @mikapeltokorpi7671
    @mikapeltokorpi7671 Месяц назад +2

    Yes. It is finally happening. China's economic downturn finally hit the USA. Only a week ago, I was laughing inside for analysts expecting three rate cuts before 2025. They, to my ignorance, could actually be right. Before this week, I was adamant us not to see FED rate cuts in the next 9 months minimum.

  • @arnet1040
    @arnet1040 25 дней назад

    To this day idk how I got my job but I’m forever grateful because so many people are struggling and I wish they could be in my shoes to

  • @ftc9258
    @ftc9258 Месяц назад +1

    OKAY. The point is well taken. The problem is that sticky inflation is still there and NOT going to come down to "2"%. And I do agree that cutting the rate doesn't do any good for employment but does make sticky inflation even stickier at least, and higher at worse. So, I say KEEP THE RATE HIGH and let the economy run its course till the inflation REALLY comes down to BELOW 2%. FORGET what the wishy-washy market says about the policy being too tight. Coz it's gotta nothing to do with it.

  • @jeffsurfanderson
    @jeffsurfanderson Месяц назад +6

    These people that interview him at the fomc meeting need to grow a pair of balls and say stop gaslighting us tell us the real scoop because every Economist that has their own channel tells us the opposite of what you are telling us

    • @ThatGuy-uv2br
      @ThatGuy-uv2br Месяц назад

      The Fed will never claim that we are headed into recession or claim they are pushing for a recession. Consumer and media opinions can actually push an economy into a recession by changing behavior. That's why you never hear them saying anything but a "soft landing" or minimizing bad news.

  • @trentpetersen3072
    @trentpetersen3072 26 дней назад +1

    Just revised down 818,000 !!!!!!!

  • @Centurion-ph7gk
    @Centurion-ph7gk Месяц назад +4

    Aged like wine

  • @davedsilva
    @davedsilva Месяц назад

    Doubling the workforce has consequences

  • @brianjarrard869
    @brianjarrard869 Месяц назад +2

    So much for the 500k job estimate

  • @KevinB-pd3me
    @KevinB-pd3me Месяц назад +4

    It'll be interesting to see tomorrow's jobs report after todays bad numbers from ISM and unemployment. Will they continue juicing the establishment survey?

  • @radiogaga123
    @radiogaga123 Месяц назад +4

    interesting how the comments are who say obnoxious comments are nowhere to be found because it looks like he has been right all along

    • @callmebill
      @callmebill Месяц назад +4

      This dude has been wrong for four straight years.

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi Месяц назад +3

      Not even close.

    • @mutton_man
      @mutton_man Месяц назад +2

      I'm still waiting for the bit where he's right all along. Now he's saying we are going to have a summer recession 🤔

  • @GeekyGizmo007
    @GeekyGizmo007 Месяц назад +1

    20:41 February 2024 is the cutoff point before we entered the unemployment spike trend. It's actually a 10 month period not a 14 month period. We are already 6 months in the spike.

  • @lilpandanesegirl
    @lilpandanesegirl Месяц назад +4

    so how long have we've been in a recession?

  • @MyFancySauce
    @MyFancySauce Месяц назад +1

    It’s interesting that the “experts” seem to get it wrong consistently

  • @gulli72
    @gulli72 26 дней назад

    I have an inkling that this would be pretty manageable, if only more people went to the doctor before it became necessary to go to the ER, refused to enroll in obscenely expensive colleges, had a veggie garden, and weren't proud of pissing away their children's inheritance.

  • @paulblart5358
    @paulblart5358 24 дня назад

    I'm still jobless. It's been a year. I put out so many resumes and cover letters and get no interviews.

    • @tony8570
      @tony8570 14 дней назад

      You can walk out with items in california. Go for it!

  • @phillhuddleston9445
    @phillhuddleston9445 Месяц назад +2

    At the end of the day it all comes down to politics not the reality of the situation.

  • @KCYPRIANO
    @KCYPRIANO Месяц назад +4

    This analysis is pure GOLD! Thank you

  • @jonathantaylor6926
    @jonathantaylor6926 Месяц назад +6

    I think unemployment might end up being inflationary because of unemployment insurance. Imagine that.. rising UE and rising inflation. I think that's a real possibility but the Government/FED will do their best to cook the books.

    • @LG-tw5vm
      @LG-tw5vm Месяц назад

      Unemployment is DEFLATIONARY.

    • @gezenews
      @gezenews Месяц назад

      @@LG-tw5vm Unemployment insurance is an increase in the money supply when all bills for the government are paid by the printer.

  • @ROBERT-k5f
    @ROBERT-k5f 22 дня назад

    You will Eat a Can of Beans , and You Will LICK THE LID !!!!!

  • @kimjongut3392
    @kimjongut3392 20 дней назад

    I didn’t believe this to be honest but then I realized my boss is retiring on 2 months this and they’re cutting off our crew from the maintenance dept

  • @chinyerejoseph8004
    @chinyerejoseph8004 Месяц назад +40

    Unfortunately, not all of us were financially literate early. I was 35 when I finally educated myself and started taking steps. I went from $176,000 in debt with zero savings or retirement to now, 2 years later, fully debt-free and over $1000,000 net worth. I know that doesn't SOUND like a lot, but I'm incredibly proud of it. Now I'm fast-tracking my wealth building (investing $400,000 annually) and don't owe a dime to anyone. It's a good feeling!
    ......

    • @VeronicaEzek
      @VeronicaEzek Месяц назад

      Please how's that possible, I'm curious

    • @VeronicaEzek
      @VeronicaEzek Месяц назад

      Please how do i go about it, am still a newbie on investment trading and how can I make profit?

    • @chinyerejoseph8004
      @chinyerejoseph8004 Месяц назад +1

      Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to elliot karen

    • @mariafernandez-sy3px
      @mariafernandez-sy3px Месяц назад

      Yeah, I attended her webinar some weeks ago.....

    • @chinyerejoseph8004
      @chinyerejoseph8004 Месяц назад

      she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name?

  • @UPdan
    @UPdan Месяц назад +1

    The jobs and economy must fall so prices come down. No rate cuts even with big banks begging.

  • @bartneville5465
    @bartneville5465 Месяц назад

    This was a fantastic video! I really enjoyed the presentation especially the graphics you showed. Thank you!

  • @thespacecowboy420
    @thespacecowboy420 27 дней назад

    Raising of the rates has nothing to do with anything except private borrowers using the money for garbage investments. It hurts everyone and it should be banned.

  • @danielwoolman8969
    @danielwoolman8969 Месяц назад +5

    Look at a 30 year gold chart. It’s as bullish as ever.

    • @paulkieffer1189
      @paulkieffer1189 Месяц назад

      Everyone buying bitcoin

    • @aridout
      @aridout Месяц назад

      @@paulkieffer1189it’s down again so maybe not

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi Месяц назад +1

      ​@@aridout GC Futures hit yet another all time high today and closed up a few bucks.

  • @fishtherapy100
    @fishtherapy100 Месяц назад +1

    Fantastic Jeff. 10/10

  • @bleacherz7503
    @bleacherz7503 Месяц назад +7

    Imagine 4 years of being wrong - year after year and boasting like you are right . Jeff is a narcissist

    • @toolwithintention
      @toolwithintention Месяц назад

      Another local downer

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi Месяц назад +3

      Absolutely pitiful. Jeff is also an embarrassment.

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi Месяц назад +1

      ​@@toolwithintention All praise Jeff the genius. Thou shall not criticize my hero.

    • @toolwithintention
      @toolwithintention Месяц назад

      @@wagashiohagi I drink cold beer

    • @wagashiohagi
      @wagashiohagi Месяц назад

      @@toolwithintention I drink Hanyu Ichiro's.

  • @baileyvaughan9051
    @baileyvaughan9051 Месяц назад +3

    This is my man right here! ahead of the trends as usual! What a call!

  • @SnowAngelfish
    @SnowAngelfish Месяц назад

    The consistency of the linearity and then the parabolic move over all these cycles proves its contrived.

  • @JimThompson-i3u
    @JimThompson-i3u Месяц назад +8

    MSNPC & CNNPC: "This economy is amazing."

  • @markmarkhitton9824
    @markmarkhitton9824 Месяц назад +2

    Jeff is phenomenal

  • @LordVader407
    @LordVader407 Месяц назад +1

    2 jobs that are recession proof. Electrician, Plumber. You're welcome.

  • @Getmad28
    @Getmad28 27 дней назад

    It’s crazy that unemployment is actually higher than when Covid happened

  • @peterburanick8785
    @peterburanick8785 Месяц назад

    An avid listener, noticed on another channel that AG is going through some hard times in the silver market, stock down considerably, time to buy an̈and support this great mine .

  • @threemonkeys5441
    @threemonkeys5441 Месяц назад +2

    By September, unemployment will be well on its way to skyrocketing and fed will cut and cut fast but it won’t help. As usual

    • @drake_leo2152
      @drake_leo2152 Месяц назад

      That’s the plan to destroy your wealth

  • @CraigSteinman-zt3vu
    @CraigSteinman-zt3vu Месяц назад

    Very interesting graphs. Thanks for the info

  • @unclestarz8792
    @unclestarz8792 Месяц назад

    We're cooked hot and ready.

  • @hotrodhunk7389
    @hotrodhunk7389 Месяц назад

    Day one in college for business page 1 it had the entire history of the stock market.
    More or less every 10 years there's a crash.
    Personally I went through the 2008 one so I know we're overdue for one.
    I think the problem is trying to predict what the cause will be and the exact timing.

  • @ronjones1414
    @ronjones1414 Месяц назад +2

    What I hear is that next year will be a great time for a 15 year fixed, and Trump is probably chuckling getting ready for a belly laugh. If unemployment puts him in office and the oil speculators go nuts, that mortgage will look really pretty.

  • @George-wk2bf
    @George-wk2bf Месяц назад +1

    Oil ? And the strategic reserve will be really over?

  • @beskararmor7966
    @beskararmor7966 Месяц назад

    Human thought. It really makes you think all the drama, wars, and suffering are based on just human thought. Value is just a few neuron impulses.

  • @rayhall7759
    @rayhall7759 Месяц назад +2

    Oh, everything will be fine! Uncle Jeromeee says so.

  • @cjpeterson2530
    @cjpeterson2530 Месяц назад +1

    Look at the 2016 level. Something changed late that year. The pattern looks very similar and appeared to be ready to rocket, but then it dropped to 1999 lows over the next 3 years.
    Hmm, what happened late 2016 that is also happening in late 2024?
    Nothing Can Stop What Is Coming.

    • @KevinB-pd3me
      @KevinB-pd3me Месяц назад +2

      It's a seriously different fiscal picture from 2016. Repubs had forced Obama to rein in spending for several years, so the deficit was down to a few hundred billion a year. Now we're at $2T a year. Rates were 0.5% when Trump took office then, but likely 10x that if he wins now.

  • @EndothermiCamel
    @EndothermiCamel Месяц назад +1

    Having you been calling the end of mankind and unemployment for the past couple of months. When does it really happen?

  • @georgedoolittle9015
    @georgedoolittle9015 Месяц назад +1

    No surprise to anyone during a hyperinflation that the USA is in that unemployment would soar as that is exactly what the USA *POLITY* wants. Not the Banks tho. Long $kmi kinder morgan energy strong buy

  • @ymma9732
    @ymma9732 Месяц назад +1

    very very comprehensive analyses thanks!!

  • @mech2159
    @mech2159 Месяц назад

    We just need a bigger fan.

  • @CTheos
    @CTheos Месяц назад +2

    Good info dude

  • @Lawliet734
    @Lawliet734 Месяц назад +1

    But...but...but Powell said employment is strong! Who am I to believe?

  • @briannewman6216
    @briannewman6216 Месяц назад +1

    Folks understand AI technology, the issue is finding the economic benefits of AI that out weigh the costs.
    Eventually the marketplace will find some instances where the benefits outweigh the costs, however, these instances may not be what people expect them to be.
    It is possible that there will be an AI bust in the short term as the costs of AI pile up and the benefits remain elusive.

    • @tear728
      @tear728 Месяц назад

      AI is a dud. The hype is what is propping up the markets. The magnificent 7 stocks will not be magnificent forever. The hype will die down as AI fails to deliver real market solutions. LLMs are not the future of AI and are reaching the top of their S curves - some other architecture that hasn't been thought of yet is the next phase

  • @dodhethompson4841
    @dodhethompson4841 28 дней назад

    I mean like, here in a few months I'm going to be unemployed
    But like, not because I don't have a job available, but because I have a seasonal job

  • @Wavetheory85
    @Wavetheory85 Месяц назад +2

    This is not fun bro. I hope it doesn’t get to the point where most of us regret not becoming farmers.

    • @gregorysagegreene
      @gregorysagegreene Месяц назад +1

      My plan B is sleeping in the dunes and fishing on the coast.

  • @UnaliverOfChildren
    @UnaliverOfChildren Месяц назад +2

    he has some good data this time but dont take his word for it because he keeps crying wolf 24/7

    • @CameronBrown-ph9do
      @CameronBrown-ph9do Месяц назад

      No way, a doomer feeds off clicks for being the doomiest and gloomiest of doomers? And there is no mechanism for his faulty and often one way coverage, no way to hold him to account? Whoa

  • @threecolorsblue
    @threecolorsblue Месяц назад

    The market 10% drop is resonable. Markets are not at bubble stage and the unemployment is far from 8% or so. In the past 8% was considered still ok.

  • @Letyourcolorsblendwithmine
    @Letyourcolorsblendwithmine Месяц назад

    It's all been held together with chickenshit and bailing wire for years now. So WHY now?

  • @Vevvy
    @Vevvy 28 дней назад

    bro illustrates how nonlinear it is by drawing a straight line on it💀

  • @jasonn5196
    @jasonn5196 Месяц назад +1

    We gonna go from soft landing to hardest landing possible…oops

  • @MrGaspari88
    @MrGaspari88 Месяц назад +1

    F**k. So no crypto bull run. goddammit.

  • @Badger1776
    @Badger1776 Месяц назад

    I would watch this video and not disliked if it were 5 to 10 minutes like it should’ve been.

  • @wheeeeeha
    @wheeeeeha Месяц назад

    It's all.......part of the plan.

  • @jbalien20
    @jbalien20 Месяц назад +3

    Market is high, private businesses inflated their prices for no reasons, and cutting back on jobs to profit on more money.

    • @gezenews
      @gezenews Месяц назад

      Cutting back on jobs to survive the recession. To justify jobs you need opportunity. Nobody is spending.

  • @TheRealVolk
    @TheRealVolk Месяц назад

    Left Mindset: well at least SOMETHING is going up.

  • @BleuSkiddew
    @BleuSkiddew Месяц назад

    It seems like all the Fed is able to do is increase or decrease rates. It's like only being able to turn a car left and right when what you're really trying to do is slam on the brakes.

  • @billysmith6284
    @billysmith6284 Месяц назад

    I have monitored Craigslist help wanted for years.. some of the skilled trade jobs have zero adds.. even in 2008 there was a few.. never zero

  • @bellakrinkle9381
    @bellakrinkle9381 Месяц назад +3

    Would you please summarize this tedious report? What's the point?

    • @DanB-b7g
      @DanB-b7g Месяц назад +3

      The surface waters look calm but there is a tsunami coming. Just like previous economic cycles. "This time is different " rarely is.

    • @gregorysagegreene
      @gregorysagegreene Месяц назад +1

      Wear faceplate. Watch for flying 💩.