deGrom's Mets career is the best argument for using Quality Starts (QS) instead of Wins for pitchers. There are too many variables out of the players controls which can end up skewing the stat to where it doesn't represent the individual effort as well.
Glad you included Votto - considering Reds are on no one's radar at present. The roster has been bolstered for "23, & there is good back-up @ first, so hopefully Votto can make the most of it and put up some numbers to make his case stronger.
Love these types of videos Chris! I know you did it in the past, but I'd love to hear your input on who is undervalued based on their career trajectory. Arenado and Machado were on your previous list but I'd love to hear an updated take. Thanks!
Regarding Jose Ramirez - he hasn't won the MVP yet, but has been in the top 6 MVP vote 5 times, and the voters do look at that. Consistently being one of the very best in the league will matter. (note: I am a Guardians fan)
Andrew McCutchen is a really good case study in career history vs. early speculation. At one point he was the, or close to the, best player in the game. And he fell off hard. For the 25-40 WAR folks early in their career you simply can’t correctly project. Be careful speculating folks!
One thing I like to add is World Series appearances and playoff appearances. In my mind it helps the player-guys like Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner get an extra boost on their peers with similar statistics but less rings/playoff appearances. I know it’s a team sport but it does elevate the stature of players that have seen a ton of postseason time.
Bumgarner's a guy that if it was up to me, he'd be a hall of famer just for the postseason legend hes built. Unfortunately I dont think the writers will feel the same way. Probably wont even sniff 200 wins. I think posey will get in though. Hard to pass up the best catcher for a decade with a roy, mvp, batting title, multiple gold gloves and silver sluggers, plus 3 rings. Was a short career by hall standards but he accomplished alot in that span.
Posey is a lock ,,,,I completely agree there is a weight for postseason in any sport , the final 4 in any sport is tough to get thru, different the other 28 teams below during regular season . I don’t know about bumgarner , I would say he’s in if he can not get rocked from this point forward like it seems he has last few years
@@steve5976 hes gotta get out of arizona. If he can luck up to get traded to a team that rejuvenates older pitchers(like houston), he has a chance. Would be a big boost if he could find his way on another world series team too.
Look if guys like bumgarner and posie get it in than Adam wainwright's A sure first ballot!!! People are really forgetting Wainwright's career man I think he gets in for sure!! We're talkin 2006 clothes out of the World series. He was a great closer and turned into a starter and was in CY Young award voting top three, four separate times. He's been good enough to win that award. Not to mention he's the best battery in the history of the game and always will be alongside yadi. Along with 200 plus wins and an era of 3.3 Dude had Tommy John surgery and came back just fine. I know there's plenty of awards in there too, he was also a great hitting pitcher he has Homeruns. This is a good pitcher that was around for 20 years and holds a record that nobody will ever touch. This guy's already in the Hall of Fame no matter what happens in 23' Bet your ass on it
Really liked this video. I choose who I collect partly basses on their hof chances. Machado, arenado, Harper I’m heavily invested in but also Jose Ramirez. Jram is a really solid and consistent player. Top 5 mvp voting past 5 years maybe more and love the fact he signed a long term deal to stay in Cleveland. If he continues doing what he’s been I think it b hard to keep him out the hall
Good summary but I would say that Yadier Molina is a HOF without the probably. Offensive statistics are not totally relevant to the catching position. As a defensive catcher, he was the best of a generation. He should be a first round selection to HOF and would be if he played in NY.😀
Agreed. He's a lock. When you compare his career totals amongst catchers, he's near the top in almost every category. He also has the highest defensive WAR in MLB history according to Fangraphs.
Great Video and Research. It will be interesting to see if the cheating scandal hurts Altuve. Degrom probably needs to get the Koufax treatment to get into the HOF. Yelich and Bellinger are great cases as to why you need to see players for about 10 years before you can even have a serious conversation is they are on track for HOF.
Fun video. I try to do this exercise every offseason as well. FYI, Bill James has a HOF tool which is useful to use-its quite simple. Also a few decades ago he said that at any one time there would be about 35 HOF players playing at any one time. Using that estimate and your estimates, there are still about 10 players under 25 WAR who are playing and will make it.
Potential hall of famers under 25 WAR: Soto, Acuna, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Devers...probably, a few others...Tatis Jr. might have taken himself out already with, the injuries, steroids, etc
This was really well done! Very impressive! Great info. The player I was most surprised by was deGrom. He’s the best pitcher in the game when healthy right now, but I was shocked by his lack of wins. I honestly wonder what we’ll see wins-wise from future HOFers, with the way managers baby SPs in today’s game. In fantasy baseball last year, I felt like it was tough getting a pitcher to pitch 5 innings to qualify for a win. If that keeps up, I would assume we’ll see career wins for HOF pitchers fall off a cliff.
I think freeman and Stanton are probably. Molina is a sure thing for his defense alone (average hitter/great defensively at a very demanding position). Scherzer probably too with 3 cy Youngs and 1 ws.
I wonder how much narratives will change over time. Ex: Wins. Recent times show that voters value underlying stats and dominance. Degrom is a great example. If he can even stay healthy 2 more seasons I would say he’s a lock I think Freddie Freeman is in really good shape too. 2-3 more good seasons and he is in for sure.
Chris, this is exactly the reason I follow you. You come up with content that the lay people and pure sports card collectors talk about. Plus, you go in depth a lot of times which the nerdy fans such as I can appreciate. I was really surprised to see Greinke as a lock. I mean, he's had a solid career, but no WS titles and his individual awards dont stack up to the other locks. But, I didnt realize his WAR was that high. I pretty much think all the probables can make it as long as production is above average. But the key variable in all of this is health. As long as there's no career threatening injury, they got a shot. For active players, I now only invest in guys that have a shot at the HOF. I've snatched up some Verlander, Scherzer, Pujols RCs over the years. Still need a Miggy!
It's funny that among all the probables, the one that is still not a given for me just had one of the best statistical seasons in a long time. Judge got going later in his career than most. He's 31, but if he keeps up with ultra high production, he'll easily make up for lost time. And among the 50/50, I'd pay close attention to Freeman. He's not a big homerun guy, but what's going to get him in is his consistency as a .300+ hitter. He's still in his prime, only 32, and already has close to 2000 hits. I think he'll reach the 3000 gold standard since he plays a less demanding position and keeps himself in good shape.
It's always not a bad strategy to collect the hall of fame rookie cards, for the guys who haven't been inducted yet- for some reason, Miguel Cabrera has very few rookies, but it does seem to add to the value of his cards
@@ACD1994 Right, so because all these guys are in the modern card era, there will be multiple versions of their RCs. I don't go crazy and get all the parallel /10 or /5 that are five figures. I simply get the best base cards and maybe the auto refractors, thats it. As a Gen X'r, I'm into vintage as I appreciate that part of the hobby more.
@@frankchuang6390 I like vintage, too. It's much simpler. While it can be fun to chase after different parallels', I prefer knowing what for example, Rickey Henderson or George Brett rookie card is and, there's really no disputing it, either.
Not necessarily. There are plenty of baseball players with one MVP not in the hall of fame but that, being said, I think Paul G. has, a few more solid seasons, which will continue to strengthen his HOF case.
62.7WAR 10 Straight Gold Gloves, 5 All Star Games, 434 Career Home Runs. Andruw Jones. Many of the times this video where you said you can't think of a player with X gold gloves or X number of home runs for consideration, Jones meets them all and if you compare Molina with Jones, Jones should get in before him.
I love this style of video. It would be interesting to take a look at relief pitchers, as the WAR cutoff leaves them all out. Using a cutoff of 150 career saves would narrow it down to about 10 active players.
You ain't lying. WAR and relievers is a weird thing. Mariano Rivera, imo, is probably the single most valuable pitcher over the length of a career in history... And he has 56.3 WAR. I think the way to Judge relievers using war is to divide their WAR by innings pitched to determine their value per inning (though this is of course imperfect)
Another metric I like for relievers is Win Probability Added (WPA) because it takes into account the leverage of the situation. For reference, Mariano Rivera is 5th all time in pitching WPA, but only 79th in WAR on Baseball Reference. Looking at only 2022, 4 of the top 10 in WPA for pitchers were relievers: Johan Duran, Daniel Bard, Edwin Diaz, and Ryan Helsey. I thought Helsey was interesting because he also had significant innings in middle relief. I could definitely see WPA gaining traction for evaluating relief pitcher value.
Hey Chris it would also be interesting if you put together a video for hall of candidates that are retired but aren't eligible for a couple years and did an analysis: Joe Mauer, Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, Buster Posey, etc. God bless you man and Jesus loves you
Catcher’s is the one position where your defensive play can help so-so numbers get you in the Hall of fame. Being a catcher is a grueling condition; Molinas done enough to get him in the Hall.
I wonder if Bumgardner can get in with the Mazeroski argument, considering he is arguably the greatest postseason pitcher of all time (besides maybe Mariano Rivera, but closer vs starter argument there). Maybe if he can put together another good season or two before he calls it quits, but judging by these last few years I don’t think that’s happening. Ultimately depends on how the HOF voters feel about postseason narrative when he gets put up for nomination.
Great break-down. Yep, like Bryce Harper, who missed a few months last season, and will miss the first half of next season due to Tommy John surgery. He could have had a lot more monstrous stats if it weren't for that.
Responding with a week left in the 2023 season. I think Betts moved into the lock category this year and Freeman close. Yes, Dodgers fan here. Also Cole is having a Cy Young caliber season in NY which should help his chances. Also, you mentioned under Cabrera that nobody with 4 batting titles isn't in the Hall. I know of one, Bill Madlock. Good video!
Really enjoyed the vid! I think Freeman is pretty much a lock. He's durable and his production is consistent. I don't see a sudden drop off. He's also got 2 big bonuses: A WS title, something Harper, Machado, Judge, DeGrom and Cole could use for their cases. He'll also get the "nice guy" bonus with the media, which is definitely a thing (cough cough Harold Baines cough)
200 W is the new 300 W for pitchers. Gerrit Cole may not even get to 200, and plenty of guys behind him who are aces right now have virtually no shot. Love HoF season on the channel :)
Scherzer is a 1st ballot if he never pitched another game. I know everybody is in love with Trout, but he's not a 1st ballot if he doesn't play another game. Agree with most of this though, great video!
Trout already has 3 mvps and 4 mvp runner ups. His numbers alone will 100% get him in. Even if he retired today. But he’s still got a few good years left
In my book, to be truly considered great among the the pantheon of greats, one has to have had at least played in a WS or have won it once. The more, the merrier, but that is the true definition of an individual playing in a team sport.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and your family, Chris! Great breakdown as always. As a Cleveland fan, I’m happy to see Lindor and Ramírez in the 50/50 list. But I’m still bummed they couldn’t bring home the most important hardware whilst playing together. They did however, provide great baseball for 6 years together though- 3 division titles, 4 playoff berths, an AL pennant in 2016 and a 22-game winning streak in 2017 (AL record).
I didn’t watch the video but if it wasn’t mentioned in the video….I would have Rafael Devers as a future HOF candidate for sure. I think Devers, Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge are on their way. Also Mookie Betts.
Freeman is entering the “probably” column for me…I would add to the YES column Scherzer (part of the exclusive 3000 K’s club, only 19 of them…and add 2 no hitters to his resume) and Yadier (2,000 career hits as a catcher is among the best and his defensive skills were phenomenal, and a great leader/champion)…other than that, great video
Great video, Chris! As usual it's chock full of data and useful insights. Why no mention of how the Astros cheating scandal might impact Hall of Fame voting for Bregman, Altuve, and the other Astros on this list?
Always enjoy your HOF videos! Greinke would be the first MLB starting HOF pitcher w/out a 20-win season. Kershaw's numbers are insane! Realmuto would be my sleeper pick if he can keep having WAR #'s like he did this year, especially as a catcher. Merry Christmas, Chris, to you and your family and congratulations on Argentina winning the World Cup! I'm sure there was much celebrating in your household!
Greinke should go in and when he does he should go in as a Royal because they saved his career. Just think how much WAR he would have if he did not tell batters what he was going to throw.
Thank You so much buddy!!! This is going to make it so much easier because I’m about to do a double look into my cards. Now I’m putting them in sleeves and top loading my best cards!!! And just by watching this wonderful video. All these players will jump out at me every time I come across these awesome players!!! Yeah buddy!!! Sorry so long man but Im fired up again after all these years!!! I have a impressive pc!!! Saginaw in the House!!!
war is a good gauge but its not fool proof. That is evident with Cole. His numbers are great and as long as he finishes strong he will make the hall. Even with a lower war.
For me the question is who are the best buys right now? Some of these guys are locks but their card values already have that baked in. So maybe marginal increases over time. But some of these guys who at one time seemed like locks, but are now on the outside looking in, could see their card values massively multiply in value if they turn it back around.
Very good point… I think Kris Bryant is a perfect case for that exact reason… values are down and I think he will crush it In Colorado and his card prices will jump big time in the next few years
Cole has added a cy young since this video. DeGrom got off to a late start, had a couple of dominant seasons then injuries derailed him which may keep him out. Judge is another who started late and though he is a HR slugger is also prone to injury. I agree with the locks but would probably add Scherzer who is not far off from Verlander in his stats.
Great video! A few notes though. Regarding the Cabrera segment - Tip O'Neill won a triple crown and isn't in the hall of fame. Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles and isn't in the hall of fame. Regarding the Molina segment - Molina's 2000+ hits puts him 5th all time for a catcher, and one of only 10 to reach the plateau. His 1000 RBIs is also significant, and his 408 doubles is 4th all time among catchers. His hard stats are absolutely HOF level, in the context of him being a catcher.
I always felt like 3000 K’s should be the benchmark for starting pitchers, too many variables go into Wins/Losses and the bar for what is considered a “good” ERA is kinda dependent on the era the player pitched in.
You said a few times that 200 wins is a key, but pitchers don’t get wins like they used to with teams using “openers” quite often now and guys just not going deep into games because of bullpens and analytics. HOF voters need to start adjusting expectations in that category.
Ohtani is too young for the list but if he only gets to 45 WAR I would consider him a lock based on his last 2 years and the fact he is doing something so unusual (like the consideration a catcher gets only about 3X the value). I think in addition to the stats is likeability and that is why guys like Betts would get a boost. Guys that are rude during interviews have to be undeniable locks to get in but guys that are pleasant get a 5 to 10 WAR boost. There is no stat to track how these guys interact with sports reporters but when a guy is especially polite or rude it makes a difference.
Thanks for another top-notch resource here, Chris. I’m less knowledgeable about modern baseball, so this made for great edification. That being said, I think your cases for Miggy, Kershaw, Pujols, Trout and Verlander seem a little weak ;) Happy Xmas, bruthaman.
I’ve been investing in Correa, but the thing that really scares me about him and Altuve regarding HOF voting is how the voters will like their part in the cheating scandal.
I pc both and honestly think if they continue to put up #’s they won’t b kept out the hall. I think that’s more an asterisk on the Astros organization more so then the players
With the news that just broke on Correa's physical with the Mets, I'd be very cautious on Correa. He might be ok the first half of his contract, but may be very damaged goods after that.
Turner remains the most underrated player in MLB...Way higher lifetime BA, HIGHER OBP AND SLG PCT AND STEALS 10 X more bases than CORREA ..YET..........
Terrific video. I think you nailed it in about every aspect. Definitely my favorite type of video you put out. It really reinforces who I buy/collect long term. Are you in the states right now? Been missing your High and regular rollers? Thanks for the great video.
Trout, Verlander, and Kershaw for sure. Miguel Cabrera most definitely. Altuve has a good shot at 3000 Hits, plus he's still fairly young, he's a great choice. Arenado keeps stacking up the Gold Gloves, that guy is impressive, we'll see how he keeps going. Greinke and Goldschmidt great picks too. DeGrom might be in a pickle, age 34 and 82 Wins like you showed, Kershaw is 34 and has 197 Wins, and one more Cy Young. We'll see. I think Yadier Molina DOES have a good shot. Those numbers are excellent for a catcher, plus the All-Star and Gold Gloves, maybe that career Runs total will be lucky enough to get him inducted......
Chris, for potential HOF’ers and those already in do you collect anything more than their rookies? For example, Pujols, Trout, Cabrera & Eddie Murray. Is it worth chasing anything other than their very first card aside from some low number rare parallel? What about their base card from sets throughout their career? Merry Christmas!
Hi, I have 19 unopened boxes, 1 box was opened but packs remained sealed of 1988 Donruss cards. I also have a few individual unopen boxes. Please let me know if you would be interested.
You down with ABC, yea you know me!!! Thanks for the in-depth analysis. Bumgarner, Price, and Cruz definitely will not make it. Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Thanks as always!
Very nice video, loved it! I do think and feel that Max Scherzer is a lock for Cooprstown just based on numbers. I'll say the same about Yadier Molina too as a defensive catcher, one of the best ever. I just don't feel that Aaron Judge should in the same category of Scherzer and Molina, just like you mentioned his career numbers are a little low and he is on his thirties now. Jacob's deGrom case is very interesting, but very low win totals, but I've been thinking what if he wins a third cy young award? It saddens me to see how Madison Bumgarner it's not the same pitcher he was, I thought he was going to be a hall of famer, but yeah, like you said I don't think he's there anymore. I think that Joey Votto has more chances of making the hall of fame than Aaron Judge.
@@williambartenslager4134 Garveys fame came more for his mr. Perfect persona. When it came out that he had numerous affairs and was not as clean cut as he presented, that hurt his already slim case.
Yep, Also in Degrom's situation- the wins and losses don't really even tell the whole story. He should have a lot more wins; the run support just wasn't there.
My opinion , is your pretty much on it but one thing is HOF committee and you has to put in the pitchers category equation that prior 2011 CG leaders had 6-10 CG PRIOR 2000 WAS 10-15 CG . These prima donnas agents not wanting their meal ticket hurt are forcing managers to pull pitchers after 6 innings to put two set up relievers, then a closer. You know how many games change hands after the 6 the inning therefore even if a pitchers team is winning 2-1 gives up the lead in the 7th 2-3 and regains and wins the game 4-3 . Those mid relievers mop up the win and the last time a mid reliever made the HOF was never. To make the HOF as a pitcher you keeping saying 200 wins you better come down 50 to 60 wins. It sucks as a picture because you can have the most killer era but your team sucks at hitting so you don't get the wins for your era could be low two's but your team doesn't score example NOLAN Ryan , you know what his record would have been if he had teams that could hit behind him. My point is a as position players you get in because of your average your home runs your your RBIs nothing or nobody can hold you back from that but as a picture you got to rely on your team to hit a managers and agents aren't going for that s*** anymore and they're pulling him out in the sixth inning so who losing a lot of wiins my opinion not yours but you better come down on that 200
I think I heard you right when you said nobody that has four batting titles isn't in the hof. Bill Madlock won four batting titles and isn't in the hof. Also I think Pete Alonzo looks like he has a good shot. He looks like a lock for 500 home runs unless something happens.
If Chris Sewall keeps compiling videos like this one then he’s a lock Hall of Famer
Two or three more years of great content like this and he's a sure thing, Rated Rookie!
Chris has a WAR in the 60-70 range..trending upwards for sure!
As long is he doesn't just fall of a cliff🤭
I may get into baseball...go to the hall
deGrom's Mets career is the best argument for using Quality Starts (QS) instead of Wins for pitchers. There are too many variables out of the players controls which can end up skewing the stat to where it doesn't represent the individual effort as well.
Glad you included Votto - considering Reds are on no one's radar at present. The roster has been bolstered for "23, & there is good back-up @ first, so hopefully Votto can make the most of it and put up some numbers to make his case stronger.
The Reds have been on a tear of late, so they have crept on the radar.
Love these types of videos Chris! I know you did it in the past, but I'd love to hear your input on who is undervalued based on their career trajectory. Arenado and Machado were on your previous list but I'd love to hear an updated take. Thanks!
Regarding Jose Ramirez - he hasn't won the MVP yet, but has been in the top 6 MVP vote 5 times, and the voters do look at that. Consistently being one of the very best in the league will matter. (note: I am a Guardians fan)
This is a highly informative video thank you! These are the guys I like to collect, I call it Hall of Famer Prospecting.
Happy Holidays, Chris and all collectors ! Be safe !
By and large, I think you are spot on with one exception - I think Scherzer is a lock. Happy Holidays!
Yep, he's a 1st ballot HOF-er right now if he retired today.
I agree.
Love these videos thanks for the research and all your work building this community Chris! Hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas
Andrew McCutchen is a really good case study in career history vs. early speculation. At one point he was the, or close to the, best player in the game. And he fell off hard. For the 25-40 WAR folks early in their career you simply can’t correctly project. Be careful speculating folks!
I think Scherzer is a Lock for sure. And let's not forget Verlander's 4 No Hitters..
And both have multiple Cy Youngs
What a great show Chris.. one of my all time favorite videos of yours! thank you for your time and service ❤
I bought 3 Verlander topps chrome rc in 2005 for $50 each, really wish I had bought more.
I’m preparing an email full of interesting screenshots from auctions for you.
👍
Stoked the Crime Dog got in!
pretty much agree with this list. I'd have Freddie one tier above and Altuve one tier below. Good stuff!
these videos are incredibly helpful - thanks for your insight! Happy holidays!!!
One thing I like to add is World Series appearances and playoff appearances. In my mind it helps the player-guys like Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner get an extra boost on their peers with similar statistics but less rings/playoff appearances. I know it’s a team sport but it does elevate the stature of players that have seen a ton of postseason time.
Bumgarner's a guy that if it was up to me, he'd be a hall of famer just for the postseason legend hes built. Unfortunately I dont think the writers will feel the same way. Probably wont even sniff 200 wins. I think posey will get in though. Hard to pass up the best catcher for a decade with a roy, mvp, batting title, multiple gold gloves and silver sluggers, plus 3 rings. Was a short career by hall standards but he accomplished alot in that span.
Posey is a lock ,,,,I completely agree there is a weight for postseason in any sport , the final 4 in any sport is tough to get thru, different the other 28 teams below during regular season . I don’t know about bumgarner , I would say he’s in if he can not get rocked from this point forward like it seems he has last few years
@@steve5976 hes gotta get out of arizona. If he can luck up to get traded to a team that rejuvenates older pitchers(like houston), he has a chance. Would be a big boost if he could find his way on another world series team too.
@@johnwayne9828 Bumgarner,not Reggie Jackson,is the real Mr.October.
Look if guys like bumgarner and posie get it in than Adam wainwright's A sure first ballot!!!
People are really forgetting Wainwright's career man I think he gets in for sure!!
We're talkin 2006 clothes out of the World series. He was a great closer and turned into a starter and was in CY Young award voting top three, four separate times. He's been good enough to win that award.
Not to mention he's the best battery in the history of the game and always will be alongside yadi. Along with 200 plus wins and an era of 3.3
Dude had Tommy John surgery and came back just fine.
I know there's plenty of awards in there too, he was also a great hitting pitcher he has Homeruns.
This is a good pitcher that was around for 20 years and holds a record that nobody will ever touch.
This guy's already in the Hall of Fame no matter what happens in 23'
Bet your ass on it
You have greinke as yes and Scherzer as probable? I would switch those. Scherzer has had a way better career
Good presentation! I pretty much agree with your categorization of the players, but I would move Scherzer to Yes and Freeman to Probably.
Really liked this video. I choose who I collect partly basses on their hof chances. Machado, arenado, Harper I’m heavily invested in but also Jose Ramirez. Jram is a really solid and consistent player. Top 5 mvp voting past 5 years maybe more and love the fact he signed a long term deal to stay in Cleveland. If he continues doing what he’s been I think it b hard to keep him out the hall
Good summary but I would say that Yadier Molina is a HOF without the probably. Offensive statistics are not totally relevant to the catching position. As a defensive catcher, he was the best of a generation. He should be a first round selection to HOF and would be if he played in NY.😀
Agreed. He's a lock. When you compare his career totals amongst catchers, he's near the top in almost every category. He also has the highest defensive WAR in MLB history according to Fangraphs.
Bill Freehan should be in the hall…
A tip of the cap to the Research Dept! I was going to ask if this video was going to be update from last year. Thank you!
Excellent share. Merry Christmas everyone.
Thanks for keeping your channel on track! Most have veered off into complete garbage at this point. Keep up the quality content, it's a great escape!
Great Video and Research. It will be interesting to see if the cheating scandal hurts Altuve. Degrom probably needs to get the Koufax treatment to get into the HOF. Yelich and Bellinger are great cases as to why you need to see players for about 10 years before you can even have a serious conversation is they are on track for HOF.
Altuve will almost certainly get in. The cheat scandal might keep him from being a first or second ballot HOFer, but he will get in nonetheless.
Fun video. I try to do this exercise every offseason as well. FYI, Bill James has a HOF tool which is useful to use-its quite simple. Also a few decades ago he said that at any one time there would be about 35 HOF players playing at any one time. Using that estimate and your estimates, there are still about 10 players under 25 WAR who are playing and will make it.
Potential hall of famers under 25 WAR: Soto, Acuna, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Devers...probably, a few others...Tatis Jr. might have taken himself out already with, the injuries, steroids, etc
*spends Christmas holiday break searching common boxes for Chris' HOF predictions*
This was really well done! Very impressive! Great info. The player I was most surprised by was deGrom. He’s the best pitcher in the game when healthy right now, but I was shocked by his lack of wins. I honestly wonder what we’ll see wins-wise from future HOFers, with the way managers baby SPs in today’s game. In fantasy baseball last year, I felt like it was tough getting a pitcher to pitch 5 innings to qualify for a win. If that keeps up, I would assume we’ll see career wins for HOF pitchers fall off a cliff.
Thanks, Chris!! You are hobby monster and MUCH appreciated.
I think freeman and Stanton are probably. Molina is a sure thing for his defense alone (average hitter/great defensively at a very demanding position). Scherzer probably too with 3 cy Youngs and 1 ws.
I wonder how much narratives will change over time. Ex: Wins. Recent times show that voters value underlying stats and dominance. Degrom is a great example. If he can even stay healthy 2 more seasons I would say he’s a lock
I think Freddie Freeman is in really good shape too. 2-3 more good seasons and he is in for sure.
Chris, this is exactly the reason I follow you. You come up with content that the lay people and pure sports card collectors talk about. Plus, you go in depth a lot of times which the nerdy fans such as I can appreciate.
I was really surprised to see Greinke as a lock. I mean, he's had a solid career, but no WS titles and his individual awards dont stack up to the other locks. But, I didnt realize his WAR was that high. I pretty much think all the probables can make it as long as production is above average. But the key variable in all of this is health. As long as there's no career threatening injury, they got a shot.
For active players, I now only invest in guys that have a shot at the HOF. I've snatched up some Verlander, Scherzer, Pujols RCs over the years. Still need a Miggy!
It's funny that among all the probables, the one that is still not a given for me just had one of the best statistical seasons in a long time. Judge got going later in his career than most. He's 31, but if he keeps up with ultra high production, he'll easily make up for lost time.
And among the 50/50, I'd pay close attention to Freeman. He's not a big homerun guy, but what's going to get him in is his consistency as a .300+ hitter. He's still in his prime, only 32, and already has close to 2000 hits. I think he'll reach the 3000 gold standard since he plays a less demanding position and keeps himself in good shape.
It's always not a bad strategy to collect the hall of fame rookie cards, for the guys who haven't been inducted yet- for some reason, Miguel Cabrera has very few rookies, but it does seem to add to the value of his cards
@@ACD1994 Right, so because all these guys are in the modern card era, there will be multiple versions of their RCs. I don't go crazy and get all the parallel /10 or /5 that are five figures. I simply get the best base cards and maybe the auto refractors, thats it. As a Gen X'r, I'm into vintage as I appreciate that part of the hobby more.
@@frankchuang6390 I like vintage, too. It's much simpler. While it can be fun to chase after different parallels', I prefer knowing what for example, Rickey Henderson or George Brett rookie card is and, there's really no disputing it, either.
As always, super logical and balance analysis. Best in the biz.
Happy Holidays Chris, thanks for all the great content!
Great video, Chris. Thanks for all the amazing videos over the last year.
Goldschmidt is a HOF lock now after this past season Chris!!!!
Not necessarily. There are plenty of baseball players with one MVP not in the hall of fame but that, being said, I think Paul G. has, a few more solid seasons, which will continue to strengthen his HOF case.
Love this Episode. Merry Christmas Chris to you and yours.
62.7WAR 10 Straight Gold Gloves, 5 All Star Games, 434 Career Home Runs. Andruw Jones. Many of the times this video where you said you can't think of a player with X gold gloves or X number of home runs for consideration, Jones meets them all and if you compare Molina with Jones, Jones should get in before him.
surprised Jones isn't in yet. Kaat, Ortiz, Oliva, Mcgriff, & Rolen all got in recently, so i think he will too. good call
I love this style of video. It would be interesting to take a look at relief pitchers, as the WAR cutoff leaves them all out. Using a cutoff of 150 career saves would narrow it down to about 10 active players.
Good point, WAR is not relevant for relief pitchers
You ain't lying. WAR and relievers is a weird thing. Mariano Rivera, imo, is probably the single most valuable pitcher over the length of a career in history... And he has 56.3 WAR.
I think the way to Judge relievers using war is to divide their WAR by innings pitched to determine their value per inning (though this is of course imperfect)
Another metric I like for relievers is Win Probability Added (WPA) because it takes into account the leverage of the situation. For reference, Mariano Rivera is 5th all time in pitching WPA, but only 79th in WAR on Baseball Reference.
Looking at only 2022, 4 of the top 10 in WPA for pitchers were relievers: Johan Duran, Daniel Bard, Edwin Diaz, and Ryan Helsey. I thought Helsey was interesting because he also had significant innings in middle relief. I could definitely see WPA gaining traction for evaluating relief pitcher value.
Hey Chris it would also be interesting if you put together a video for hall of candidates that are retired but aren't eligible for a couple years and did an analysis: Joe Mauer, Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, Buster Posey, etc.
God bless you man and Jesus loves you
Catcher’s is the one position where your defensive play can help so-so numbers get you in the Hall of fame. Being a catcher is a grueling condition; Molinas done enough to get him in the Hall.
I wonder if Bumgardner can get in with the Mazeroski argument, considering he is arguably the greatest postseason pitcher of all time (besides maybe Mariano Rivera, but closer vs starter argument there). Maybe if he can put together another good season or two before he calls it quits, but judging by these last few years I don’t think that’s happening. Ultimately depends on how the HOF voters feel about postseason narrative when he gets put up for nomination.
Great break-down. Yep, like Bryce Harper, who missed a few months last season, and will miss the first half of next season due to Tommy John surgery. He could have had a lot more monstrous stats if it weren't for that.
Responding with a week left in the 2023 season. I think Betts moved into the lock category this year and Freeman close. Yes, Dodgers fan here. Also Cole is having a Cy Young caliber season in NY which should help his chances. Also, you mentioned under Cabrera that nobody with 4 batting titles isn't in the Hall. I know of one, Bill Madlock.
Good video!
Really enjoyed the vid! I think Freeman is pretty much a lock. He's durable and his production is consistent. I don't see a sudden drop off. He's also got 2 big bonuses: A WS title, something Harper, Machado, Judge, DeGrom and Cole could use for their cases. He'll also get the "nice guy" bonus with the media, which is definitely a thing (cough cough Harold Baines cough)
Totally agree, I think freeman will be a hit machine for years. And his good guy reception definitely gives him a boost
I do believe he shed the most tears than anyone in the live ball era last year.
1:28 Harold Baines has entered the chat.
This was a really fun video! have you done retired players not in the Hall who might/should be?
I plan to do that one fairly soon!
Wainwright really should have a couple CY awards. Lincecum wasn’t on the list and won’t make it but won the CY in a couple of Wainwright’s best years.
The video was detailing ACTIVE players. The Freak has been retired for seven years now.
200 W is the new 300 W for pitchers. Gerrit Cole may not even get to 200, and plenty of guys behind him who are aces right now have virtually no shot. Love HoF season on the channel :)
nice one Chris interesting info to ponder buy em early before thay get in thanks again
Imagine how many wins some of these pitchers could have if they were allowed to, you know, pitch baseball games.
DeGrom should be in the hall of fame for the same reasons that Sandy Koufax is in
Scherzer is a 1st ballot if he never pitched another game. I know everybody is in love with Trout, but he's not a 1st ballot if he doesn't play another game. Agree with most of this though, great video!
Trout already has 3 mvps and 4 mvp runner ups. His numbers alone will 100% get him in. Even if he retired today. But he’s still got a few good years left
I agree he'll get in. You think he's a first ballot if he retired today?
Strongly disagree. Trout would be first ballot if he retired today.
In my book, to be truly considered great among the the pantheon of greats, one has to have had at least played in a WS or have won it once. The more, the merrier, but that is the true definition of an individual playing in a team sport.
@@frankchuang6390 would you include Madison Bumgarner in your hall of fame?
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and your family, Chris! Great breakdown as always. As a Cleveland fan, I’m happy to see Lindor and Ramírez in the 50/50 list. But I’m still bummed they couldn’t bring home the most important hardware whilst playing together. They did however, provide great baseball for 6 years together though- 3 division titles, 4 playoff berths, an AL pennant in 2016 and a 22-game winning streak in 2017 (AL record).
Go cleveland...!!!!@!
I didn’t watch the video but if it wasn’t mentioned in the video….I would have Rafael Devers as a future HOF candidate for sure. I think Devers, Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge are on their way. Also Mookie Betts.
Freeman is entering the “probably” column for me…I would add to the YES column Scherzer (part of the exclusive 3000 K’s club, only 19 of them…and add 2 no hitters to his resume) and Yadier (2,000 career hits as a catcher is among the best and his defensive skills were phenomenal, and a great leader/champion)…other than that, great video
Great video, Chris! As usual it's chock full of data and useful insights. Why no mention of how the Astros cheating scandal might impact Hall of Fame voting for Bregman, Altuve, and the other Astros on this list?
Good point. It very well could. And we'll get an initial sense next month when we see how Carlos Beltran's voting goes.
Always enjoy your HOF videos! Greinke would be the first MLB starting HOF pitcher w/out a 20-win season. Kershaw's numbers are insane! Realmuto would be my sleeper pick if he can keep having WAR #'s like he did this year, especially as a catcher. Merry Christmas, Chris, to you and your family and congratulations on Argentina winning the World Cup! I'm sure there was much celebrating in your household!
Greinke should go in and when he does he should go in as a Royal because they saved his career. Just think how much WAR he would have if he did not tell batters what he was going to throw.
Two more longshots: JT Realmuto and George Springer. Unlikely but 4-5 more all-star caliber seasons would get them close.
Thank You so much buddy!!! This is going to make it so much easier because I’m about to do a double look into my cards. Now I’m putting them in sleeves and top loading my best cards!!! And just by watching this wonderful video. All these players will jump out at me every time I come across these awesome players!!! Yeah buddy!!! Sorry so long man but Im fired up again after all these years!!! I have a impressive pc!!! Saginaw in the House!!!
And to think Zack Greinke almost quit baseball to mow lawns 😂
war is a good gauge but its not fool proof. That is evident with Cole. His numbers are great and as long as he finishes strong he will make the hall. Even with a lower war.
For me the question is who are the best buys right now? Some of these guys are locks but their card values already have that baked in. So maybe marginal increases over time. But some of these guys who at one time seemed like locks, but are now on the outside looking in, could see their card values massively multiply in value if they turn it back around.
Very good point… I think Kris Bryant is a perfect case for that exact reason… values are down and I think he will crush it In Colorado and his card prices will jump big time in the next few years
Cole has added a cy young since this video. DeGrom got off to a late start, had a couple of dominant seasons then injuries derailed him which may keep him out. Judge is another who started late and though he is a HR slugger is also prone to injury. I agree with the locks but would probably add Scherzer who is not far off from Verlander in his stats.
If you have 10 ASG appearances and 9 golden glove and 2 WS titles. Molina should be a no brainer -vote him in !
Spot on Chris. I do think Scherzer and Mookie are locks.
Great video! A few notes though.
Regarding the Cabrera segment -
Tip O'Neill won a triple crown and isn't in the hall of fame.
Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles and isn't in the hall of fame.
Regarding the Molina segment -
Molina's 2000+ hits puts him 5th all time for a catcher, and one of only 10 to reach the plateau. His 1000 RBIs is also significant, and his 408 doubles is 4th all time among catchers. His hard stats are absolutely HOF level, in the context of him being a catcher.
Really cool video. Happy holidays, Chris
Thanks Chris, great watch
Great video!!!! You da man as always! Sincerely yours, lovin all your stuff Division
I always felt like 3000 K’s should be the benchmark for starting pitchers, too many variables go into Wins/Losses and the bar for what is considered a “good” ERA is kinda dependent on the era the player pitched in.
You said a few times that 200 wins is a key, but pitchers don’t get wins like they used to with teams using “openers” quite often now and guys just not going deep into games because of bullpens and analytics. HOF voters need to start adjusting expectations in that category.
I think Nolan Arenado is a lock. 10 gold gloves and 6 platinum gloves is extremely good along with 50+ war
Ohtani is too young for the list but if he only gets to 45 WAR I would consider him a lock based on his last 2 years and the fact he is doing something so unusual (like the consideration a catcher gets only about 3X the value). I think in addition to the stats is likeability and that is why guys like Betts would get a boost. Guys that are rude during interviews have to be undeniable locks to get in but guys that are pleasant get a 5 to 10 WAR boost. There is no stat to track how these guys interact with sports reporters but when a guy is especially polite or rude it makes a difference.
Great video. BTW, Steve Garvey was a 10x All Star and 4x gold glove. Also an MVP.
How about Keith Hernandez, he was a 5X All Star, 11X gold gloves, 1 MVP and 2 WS titles.
Thanks for another top-notch resource here, Chris. I’m less knowledgeable about modern baseball, so this made for great edification. That being said, I think your cases for Miggy, Kershaw, Pujols, Trout and Verlander seem a little weak ;) Happy Xmas, bruthaman.
I’ve been investing in Correa, but the thing that really scares me about him and Altuve regarding HOF voting is how the voters will like their part in the cheating scandal.
I had the same thought. Altuve is on great pace and his cards are pretty cheap but I don’t know if he will get in because of that
I pc both and honestly think if they continue to put up #’s they won’t b kept out the hall. I think that’s more an asterisk on the Astros organization more so then the players
With the news that just broke on Correa's physical with the Mets, I'd be very cautious on Correa. He might be ok the first half of his contract, but may be very damaged goods after that.
I like your research on this
PED’s will play a part in more than a couple of players.
keith hernandez 11 gold gloves and no HOF...
Low power numbers, no?
Turner remains the most underrated player in MLB...Way higher lifetime BA, HIGHER OBP AND SLG PCT AND STEALS 10 X more bases than CORREA ..YET..........
Terrific video. I think you nailed it in about every aspect. Definitely my favorite type of video you put out. It really reinforces who I buy/collect long term.
Are you in the states right now? Been missing your High and regular rollers? Thanks for the great video.
Thanks! I am travelling around a bit, basically took December off. But High & Regular rollers will be back in full swing starting in mid January.
Trout, Verlander, and Kershaw for sure. Miguel Cabrera most definitely. Altuve has a good shot at 3000 Hits, plus he's still fairly young, he's a great choice. Arenado keeps stacking up the Gold Gloves, that guy is impressive, we'll see how he keeps going. Greinke and Goldschmidt great picks too. DeGrom might be in a pickle, age 34 and 82 Wins like you showed, Kershaw is 34 and has 197 Wins, and one more Cy Young. We'll see. I think Yadier Molina DOES have a good shot. Those numbers are excellent for a catcher, plus the All-Star and Gold Gloves, maybe that career Runs total will be lucky enough to get him inducted......
Yadi is a first ballot inductee. It isn’t even a question.
& Pujols in the for sure category
and Cabrera. He’s in.
@@spic0li Oh yeah, but he's not active anymore.
Chris, for potential HOF’ers and those already in do you collect anything more than their rookies? For example, Pujols, Trout, Cabrera & Eddie Murray. Is it worth chasing anything other than their very first card aside from some low number rare parallel? What about their base card from sets throughout their career? Merry Christmas!
From a collectors standpoint, yes! You should collect whatever you enjoy. If you are talking about investing, I would stick with Rookies.
Great video. DeGroom and Lincecum are very similar.
Marris isn’t in the HOF so Judge needs to put up some great numbers the next 5 seasons.
Merry Christmas Chris! Great video today!
Great videos. Thanks for the knowledge.
Swap freeman and judge on your XLS - and bump up degrom and Molina 1 category and you’re in good shape
Hi, I have 19 unopened boxes, 1 box was opened but packs remained sealed of 1988 Donruss cards. I also have a few individual unopen boxes. Please let me know if you would be interested.
You down with ABC, yea you know me!!! Thanks for the in-depth analysis. Bumgarner, Price, and Cruz definitely will not make it. Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Thanks as always!
All 3 will have arguments(especially bumgarner), but you're probably right that none of them will get in.
Very nice video, loved it! I do think and feel that Max Scherzer is a lock for Cooprstown just based on numbers. I'll say the same about Yadier Molina too as a defensive catcher, one of the best ever. I just don't feel that Aaron Judge should in the same category of Scherzer and Molina, just like you mentioned his career numbers are a little low and he is on his thirties now. Jacob's deGrom case is very interesting, but very low win totals, but I've been thinking what if he wins a third cy young award? It saddens me to see how Madison Bumgarner it's not the same pitcher he was, I thought he was going to be a hall of famer, but yeah, like you said I don't think he's there anymore. I think that Joey Votto has more chances of making the hall of fame than Aaron Judge.
I agree. I would easily swap Judge and Votto on his list.
Great video. Very well done!
Steve Garvey has 10 all star appearances and 4 gold gloves but no HOF.
Didnt have 3000 hits or 500 home runs. Also wasnt liked by his teammates.
Garvey is a 70s icon who belongs in the HOF
@@williambartenslager4134 Garveys fame came more for his mr. Perfect persona. When it came out that he had numerous affairs and was not as clean cut as he presented, that hurt his already slim case.
Arenado is a no-brainer buy. Ive been picking up a few RCs here recently, theyre still pretty cheap raw
I think Abreu should get awarded his pre mlb statistics just like Ichiro did.
Excellent, like your choices, although Judge is 1 level too high I think, mostly because of age
I think wins for pitchers will change since they don't get the pitching time they used to to hold a win.
Yep, Also in Degrom's situation- the wins and losses don't really even tell the whole story. He should have a lot more wins; the run support just wasn't there.
Nicely done
My opinion , is your pretty much on it but one thing is HOF committee and you has to put in the pitchers category equation that prior 2011 CG leaders had 6-10 CG PRIOR 2000 WAS 10-15 CG . These prima donnas agents not wanting their meal ticket hurt are forcing managers to pull pitchers after 6 innings to put two set up relievers, then a closer. You know how many games change hands after the 6 the inning therefore even if a pitchers team is winning 2-1 gives up the lead in the 7th 2-3 and regains and wins the game 4-3 . Those mid relievers mop up the win and the last time a mid reliever made the HOF was never. To make the HOF as a pitcher you keeping saying 200 wins you better come down 50 to 60 wins. It sucks as a picture because you can have the most killer era but your team sucks at hitting so you don't get the wins for your era could be low two's but your team doesn't score example NOLAN Ryan , you know what his record would have been if he had teams that could hit behind him. My point is a as position players you get in because of your average your home runs your your RBIs nothing or nobody can hold you back from that but as a picture you got to rely on your team to hit a managers and agents aren't going for that s*** anymore and they're pulling him out in the sixth inning so who losing a lot of wiins my opinion not yours but you better come down on that 200
Love the video but dont agree with Trout. Harper has the closest stats to his and isnt considered a “shoe in” as well? Keep up the great work!
I think I heard you right when you said nobody that has four batting titles isn't in the hof. Bill Madlock won four batting titles and isn't in the hof. Also I think Pete Alonzo looks like he has a good shot. He looks like a lock for 500 home runs unless something happens.