US Naval Blockade Against China Won't Work - Here's Why
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- Опубликовано: 17 окт 2024
- We examine the impact on the Chinese war economy from a US naval blockade of the Strait of Malacca, and how China might respond to mitigate the impact.
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Keywords: Malacca dilemma, PLAN, PLA Navy, Chinese Navy, military
US seem to think all their enemies will just sit back and let them do whatever they want.
they think will be the same as cuba, no way.
It's the politicians
@@YSKWatch
Cuba was an island.
Soviets shouldn't have back down then.
Should have exercised freedom of navigation like the USA does nowadays.
@@John.S.Patton No it is not only politicians because when America invaded Iraq in 2003 without valid reason based on lies American people went along with American politicians government and US President
Supposed the blockage happens, this would likely threaten China's existence because they rely on food/oil import. Does it mean this allows China to just use nuclear weapons because either way (use or not use nuclear), they will die anyway, but with nuke threats, China can actually have a way out because the other party won't push China to corner.
Even if the US fleet was capable of intercepting the Chinese missles they would simply run out of interceptors really quickly.
How are they going to stop hyper and super-sonic ballistic missiles specifically built to take down air-craft cerriers plus most U.S military hardwares are built in 70s, 80s, 90 amd 2000 with upgrades here and there. War in China's backyard is impossible to win.
They can barely supply enough weapons for Ukraine where the whole of NATO falling behind. Its impossible to win a war with china in China backyard
MINES
SUBMARINES
@@jonathanaustinstern1 China has got more submarines together conventional and nuclear compare to Americans nuclear ones only also China has got enough Ships with countermine mesures and they can build more easily in their shipyards
@@jonathanaustinstern1 if u.s put mines in malacca strait...... they're declaring war with the whole south east and east asia, the middle east etc..
@@jonathanaustinstern1 China has huge number of underwater drones. Remember the USS Connecticut that hit an underwater mountain?
This is a wonderfully comprehensive video on the topic of a potential US blockade of the PRC. However, it still misses 3 key points that should be part of any conversation about a Sino-US war, so some constructive criticism is warranted here:
1. By omitting the data about the structure & makeup of Chinese exports, this video gives off the false impression that any "blockade" would only be a one-way affair. In reality, the PRC will also deny critical resources that the US would need to sustain a lengthy war, namely - rare earth minerals, steel, UAV components, electronics, etc. Granted that in time the US would be able to make up the shortfalls in all of these areas, the time it takes to do so is FAR more lengthy than Chinese import substitution (switching from supplier A to supplier B). Rare earth minerals refinement is not an industry that can be propped up overnight, same applies to electronics & UAV manufacturing.
2. This video seems to have omitted any mention of whether a sustained blockade of Malacca (or any other SLOC in the APAC region) is militarily sustainable, given that the PLA has the means to strike anywhere along these SLOCs from the relative safety of its interior territory, using long-range HGV-equipped missiles such as the DF-26, DF-27, etc. The only assets that can conduct a blockade mission in relative safety are the US SSNs, assuming that the US is able to continue maintaining its lead vs the PLAN in this field. The PLAN might not be able to end the blockade overnight, in a Mahan-style decisive naval engagement, but it is more than capable of wearing down the USN through attrition (via long-range strike). Moreover, the superiority of PRC's industrial capacity means that it can replace ships at a far faster rate than the US.
3. All the discussion centers on the assumption that such a blockade scenario takes place within the decade, given that it's centered on China's existing energy consumption patterns. By the end of this decade, China's energy consumption structure will have fundamentally changed. Nuclear power & renewables will make up a far larger percentage of Chinese energy consumption, & China's ability to harness its domestic shale reserves (which are vastly larger than that of the US) will be far more mature than it is today.
Still, this is an impressive video that summarizes the key basic issues in a reasonable amount of time. Nevertheless, I hope a follow up video can address some of the aforementioned points.
China will not be a major steel producer once iron ore imports are blocked.
Rare earths and consumer electronics would cause a lot of disruption to the economy but not impact the military. America produces more than enough rare earths than the military needs.
It's the fact that China basically makes all the clothing, all the hammers, all the shovels that will cause the most disruption. Nobody is going to care about cheap UAVs when your shirts cost 5 times as much. That was the lesson from Covid and that's why diversification is important.
Agree...
Wow, thank you this is gold. Thank you for your insight and knowledge.
According to an article on Asia Times by David Goldman, China has more than enough anti-ship missiles, ballistic missiles to target all U.S. surface warships and their missile defense. Plus, China's advanced, AI manufacturing capacity can produce thousands of missiles and other military hardware per week.
Yup, at 30% of the world's manufacturing capacity, China can literally saturated the USN missile defense and send their ships to Davy Jones's locker.
It may be an anti-China propaganda on behalf of the Pentagon to have authorization to fight China.
Another issue is Malaysia and Indonesia as well as Singapore, who are increasingly aligned with China, won't let the sea battle happen just at their frontyard. They will probably won't allow any party, including China, to block the sea traffic. If pushing to corner, I believe they will work with China to ensure smooth sea traffic in their frontyard. Why risking to offend China to please the US? If I were them, I would think this way.
@@oceanwave4502 Indeed. The survival of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore depends on the strait.
These people are not just out plans, they are also crazy
decoupling with china is crazy.... declaring war with china is madness to say the least..
also chinese are more flexible and willing on rationing during war time.... they see it as their civic duty to those who are fighting on their behalf
Not madness but “Whiteness”!
the US doesn't need the CCP for anyting
@@jonathanaustinstern1 typed on the phone or keyboard that's made in china....
@@fatdoi003
Wow a high tech item
The United States already defeated China on a battlefield.
Learn history -- History repeats itself
most of oil is from Russia and iran, russia send oil to china by piping, and iran can send oil by train or road directly from parkistan and rail to china, also china is building piping from iran directly to china via Pakistan , china does not even need ship via the sea, also , china has huge reserve of its own oil too, china imports lots of oil , but china itself is also big producer of oil in last 60 years, it store most of oil as reserve, also china economy is now using more green engery, it is reducing oil using,
In addition to oil and gas import, China also ships its goods to the world. That's why the country needs to access to the Malacca Strait. Now, it works with Thailand to build a channel which enables to go to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Malacca Strait.
China using more green energy is just BS
@@GGLEDOUAll Railway nowadays. Malaysia cam send goods to China pastime through Thailand and Lsos ny Train. Just launched last week. I trust from Africa and Middle East there be railway too. Sea route are actually expensive and burn a lot of fuel.
@@truthful3777 I agree. But the result will be the same. China has to ship its goods through the Malacca Strait controled by the evil U.S. That's why a common project with Thailand to build a canal, like the Panama Canal, is designed.
Pipeline can be sabotaged. Remember Nordstream?.
Even if marginally successful, which is highly questionable given superior Chinese EW (proven in recent SCS confrontation) and A2AD technologies (driven home by Houthis), US naval blockade against China would result in quick suspension of consumer, commercial, and military exports America require to run its economy and its military. Since government and private consumption is more than 70% of the US economy, which it has no short-term alternatives to Chinese imports either directly or through third-party nations, US economy would grind to a halt faster than Chinese economy because while you could print endless dollars, you can't print manufactured products. Also, economies of US vassal states like Japan, RoK, and Philippines would implode just as quickly.
Dream on.....
@@Andy-P - smoke more copium.
@@Andy-P
Maybe you need to wake up?
@@AnneliedeWet I am awake. I think you underestimate America
You think too much of America.@@Andy-P
US DDG attempting blockade can't dodge Mach-10 DF-27, DF26 in the Indian Ocean, SCS or in the Pacific. Twenty years ago would have been a viable plan when PRC had neither the means nor the space based ISR capability.
US ships failed to defeat the Jemeni blockade.
USA is a paper tiger, they got the nuclear terrorism, bio terrorism and islamic terrorism but nothing else.
China has railroad to Europe and ASEAN, which is currently their LARGEST trading partner. In addition, China/Russia will have Northern Sea Route as alternative. For energy, China can get oil/LNG directly from Russia by land. Did I miss something? China also has large strategic reserves of oil/LNG/rare earth/grains, and even uranium (to operate nuclear facilities). China plans to increase their nukes to 5000 til 2035. If any party threatens China's right to existence, why wouldn't China just use nukes on the enemies?
I wonder why the US is comfortable to understate their tactic and weapons capabilities -- unlike other countries
DF27 is for carrier in Hawaii. For destoryer in Indian Ocean YJ21 is more common.
If China loses, Russia would be alone to face the US next. Russia has to make sure China is well supplied.
Have you been to China yet? Otherwise, you have no concept.
The US economy will collapse from the lack of Chinese goods and supplies before China dies of the lack of oil.
China nor russia cannot lose. They both are one.
China will never allow Russia to fall and Russia will never allow China to fall. Both Russia and China need each other like no other countries.
@@mymonster156 China is unsafe for westerners to travel to.
The Chinese will rain down missiles on the naval blockade. No body knows how many missiles are on store in China. Judging by Russia endless flow of missiles in Ukraine, i believe China might have the same capacity as Russia.
It would be worse for colonial hypocrite west because Chinese military is technologically more advanced than Russia
More actually.
The industrial prowess of China is unmatched and their deployed arsenal is so vast that it doesn't even need the replenishment from the industries.
chinese manufacturing 200 times of RU
Russia used up its old stockpile and NK shipped trainload of bombs and missiles in exchange for technology. China has uniformed personnel assigned to Russian MOD.
You have no idea about China's capability of manufacturing my friend.😂
This is how the US caused their Pearl Harbour incident - by blockading Japanese imports, so as usual the US was the aggressor. The Chinese Brass know this very well, and so "mitigation" of such an attempt will be a very high priority. This might also underpin their pre-eminence in almost all types of commercial shipping - plenty of "replacement capacity" should things become "interesting" for the wrong reasons.
Gotta love cutting out important context.
America blockaded Japan in order to oppose Japan’s invasian of China, so using the context they were not the agressor. Now you could extend the context even further beyond and argue about morals, but it doesn’t affect the blockade.
Save China?
What you watching, Bollywood movies?
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
To save China?
What are you watching, Bollywood movies?
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
In the 1940s, western colonizers and Russia literally controlled 100% of global oil production. The situation China is facing is much better than that of Japan in the 1940s.
@@taiwanstillisntacountry Your lack of knowledge in history is a very good way for me to revise my knowledge of history.
Yes, the US did help China, in more ways than one. Lets completely disregard everything before WW2 and stick with just WW2 events.
- The US performs air raids for China
- The US “donates” airmen to China (They were known as the Flying Tigers)
- The US donates planes to China
- The US donates, god knows how many vehicles to China
-> That includes armour, so tanks
- The US donates resources to China (Need to double check that)
That in total was around USD$145 million in 1940, which is ~USD$2.8 billion in today’s money, which is quite a bit. If you want me to travel further back in time I’ll be happy to :)
Edit: Typed USD$145 instead of USD$ 145 million
Lets face facts. We couldnt beat China back in the Korean war when they had no air force, no navy and up against 17 nations including UN, Nato, you name it.
The Korean War ended with the US getting everything it wanted. Bridgehead on the Asian mainland, stand off distance for the safety of Japan (and for US forces stationed in Japan), North Korean buffer state so US forces didn’t have to be hard up on the border of the USSR, undisputed control of the Tsushima Strait.
The final border was basically unchanged from what the US negotiated with the USSR when the US was bargaining from the position of having the overwhelming military advantage that the US enjoyed at the end of WW2. Remember, at the end of WW2, the US had the only nukes, completely outclassed the entire rest of the world combined in air power, and had just used the combination of those two advantages to obliterate Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
(It should also be noted that that same overwhelming US bargaining position is why the USSR agreed to return Manchuria to China.)
@@yopyop3241 Good points. Sometimes we forget the US has helping the South Koreans defend themselves from a northern invasion.
@@yopyop3241 You forgot to mention that the rag tag chinese were able to push the mighty US from the Yalu river back to the 38th parallel. So much for victory.
@@richardkong4387 China “succeeded” in pushing the US to where the US wanted to be. In contrast, the Chinese would have dearly loved to have pushed the US off the Asian mainland and obviously failed to achieve that objective.
US got everything it wanted; China did not.
China is welcome to many more such “glorious victories.”
Oh, and North Korea. Seems like a giant pain in the ass to have as an ally. Have fun with them.
@@yopyop3241 Chinese goal was the 38th line. It was why USA never set a foot into north Vietnam.
US naval blockade of China? The Americans must be really tired of living. 😂😂😂😂😂
The CCP can do their best worst or whatever
The United States already defeated China on a battlefield.
Learn history -- History repeats itself
They couldn't even handle the Houthies, and they wanted to fight Ciena ?!?!?!
@@MetaView7 Who wants to fight John Ciena ?
@@RectalRooter Are you tired of living too, rectom? 🤔🤔🤔
China will just sit back and let that happen ? Childish !!!
Why just China ?
No nation will.
Just look at Yemen.
Pretty much.
What can they do? Start a war against the US?...
That's the point what can China do? Britain was nearly bought to knee's in both world wars. Same for Japan
Britain was brought to it's knees. It was never the same after ww2 and lost most of its relevancy and power in the decades after.
nice one, the best islanders' mindset @@Andy-P
one thing to mention here
the most of natural resources import is for civilian industrial production, as China is now producing about 60% of world industrial products
at war time, the actually military and internal resource consumption will be much less than peace time production actually needed
and this kind of war is actually a world war, civilian usages will be controlled at war time
i don't understand how or why western people think of eliminate Chinese natural resources will limit Chinese war production, the most of Chinese factories and Chinese worker are actually working on export, a war will simply cut more than half of western nations industry production supply, and send Chinese workers onto battlefield
all data are available on Chinese national statistic agency website, you can find how these natural resources are used with several clicks, now the fact is, Chinese natural resources imported are used for exporting industry produces for export, Chinese people do not need that much amount of natural resources at war time, as the world is fighting against China, the biggest export destination of China is European Union, the second is America, and this kind of war will simply cut the whole western world from civilian production supply
and Chinese controls agricultural produce even at peace time, the land used for produce grains are limited at peace time for more than 1.8 billion 亩(about 666.7 square meters), China would to pay for fruits and vegetables import at peace time just incase war happens, the food storage at peace time is around 3 years consumption of Chinese people and the state government pay for that
i don't actually know those who are sitting in Pentagon calculate war resource, for me to estimate a mainly exporting nations resource consumption, i will count the export amount first, then to calculate domestic need
or maybe they are just sitting in office, and drinking coffee contains in a mug cost 3000 USD, and watch money in their own account jumping and watch money from middle east, Africa, and Europe just coming in
all data is available on website of national statics agency of china, and they offer English version, and most data can be free download
also china will block every merchant ship to US too, china can also send land force and enter Alaska via russia , another thing is china can supply all big gears to alll those groups such as Houthi movement , they will block entire gulf for any shipment to US and EU, also china can send air force taking off from iran or parkistan to block entire gulf region for any shipment to US , also china has way more navy warships to dispatch to gulf region than US navy
True. Eventually the US itself will be blockaded by her enemies. Russia, Iran , Yemen, North Korea and China. Just like the US sanctions on so many countries. Now it looks like it is surrounded by the sanctioned countries that it is feeling being sanctioned by the rest of the world 😂😂😂
Fallout timeline🤣
@@xinyiquan666 While I completely see where you’re coming from, you’re either on high amounts of copium or extremely short sighted. I will adress each topic one by one, starting with land forces.
Literally neither side wants to fight in Alaska. IIRC, Alaska and Siberia weren’t nearly as heavily armed during the Cold War as other parts of both nations. The reason is simple, logistics and conditions. While both sides do have units trained for that weather, nether side wants to actually fight in that terrian. Also moving both people and equipment into that region is much harder that it may seem, for both sides.
The Houthi movement is, well, first of all a terrorist organisation, so I don’t think that will help China win any allies. Secondly, they’re fairly incompetent. Allied forces fighting against the Houthis have been purely aerial and naval forces because it’s a waste of resources doing a land invasion, and also leaved them open to a Chinese invasion. Supplies to the US can also go through the Pacific or around South Africa with ships to the EU(Many ships are already doing this). They won’t have as much of an affect on shipping as you might think.
As for the air force in Iran and Pakistan, well lets just say America has allies nearby to take care of them. Plus China will want to keep as many planes in it’s airspace as possible.
China may have more ships, but America has
A- More carriers, which are the epitome of naval power
B- Allies, who will also help the US
Pakistan has nukes. Nk has nukes. China has nukes. Russia has nukes. Iran can have nukes easily. Who's taking care of who? Only Iran can be touched because it has no nukes.
@@shashankojha368the u.s have nothing up on its sleeves in this region, only being a sitting duck, with its bases marked for death by Chinese hypersonics missiles. Logistics wise, its a lost cause to defeat. Its u.s. carriers are for target shooting by China's airforce. Its a grim scenario for bullying amerika.
An old fleet going to blockade a new fleet??? US fleet average age of their warships were 35 years old while the Chinese were 15! This is not to mention that the Chinese is still adding new ships to their navy!
Not to mention China had very long-distance hypersonic missiles which the US don't have and US can't intercept hypersonic missiles at current stage!
Exactly!!!! 👌
@@marvinfok65 China is developing a new war winning weapon every week. Fantastic for a country that still has Developing Country status at the WTO
I mean, yea, China's Navy is fast becoming formidable but the age of ships point is weak. Fact is, US forces are well funded, supplied, maintained, trained and even practiced. Most of it happens in the service of making things worse everywhere but they're formidable nevertheless.
@@snizami it's almost a century have passed that the US faced a major naval war they don't have any experience, On the modern era. And all the countries didn't have an industry and were week then.
Now we're talking about a super power that has more industrial capabilities and capacity then the current super power and is expanding. And now has more ships in numbers as well as more new ships in numbers. And both are expanding faster everytime.
@@snizamiit's almost a century have passed that the US faced a major naval war they don't have any experience, On the modern era. And all the countries didn't have an industry and were week then.
Now we're talking about a super power that has more industrial capabilities and capacity then the current super power and is expanding. And now has more ships in numbers as well as more new ships in numbers. And both are expanding faster everytime.
Don't need 30 minutes to explain. Common sense dictate that you would need a vastly superior navy to make it work.
@oboknb. Not everyone will just accept your common sense. You need to persuade. Today, even a vastly superior navy may not do the trick as we are in the era of hypersonic missiles and very capable drones.
@@katong1953 And the US dont have any of those hypersonics...
@@katong1953 You're not going to persuade anybody here.
@@katong1953”Vastly superior navy might not do the trick against hypersonic missiles and drones,” well hypersonic missiles fired from Russia have been intercepted by Patriot systems in Ukraine and the Aegis system is better so… Also U.S. destroyers have shot down drones in the Red Sea so no a superior navy still matters.
@@erwin5760”The U.S. doesn’t have hypersonics,” the Minuteman 3 travels as Mach 20, so your wrong.
china has way bigger iron ore reserve than australia, only thing it does not produce much of its own its grade is not very high for those iron ore, but it only add cost to refine , , also china has most of granite and magnets and other metal reserve, which are crucial for all weapnoary and electronics and batteries, china will block all these supply to US, that will shut down every industry in US and EU, plus 99% rare earth is from china
Keep silence ,
What they don't know , wouldn't hurt them .
Raytheon CEO literally said on FT it'll take them decades to be able to build weapons without Chinese supply chain.
And that's today's weapons, not weapons from a few decades in the future.
When war breaks out America is entirely fighting on inventory, once it runs out, it's unconditional surrender.
It is also possible to move oil through the Indonesian archipelago from the Indian ocean if push comes to shove. Remember that China is now one of west Asian countries biggest customers for their oil. Any blockade will cause huge losses for all of them, and there are also a lot of incentives for Indonesia to help facilitate trade with China.
Indonesia join China in a war against America? I guess part of that deal will be Indonesia handing over all her SCS territory to China. And anything else the CCP desire?
Conducting a naval blockade requires massive logistics - ship and crew rotations, resupply missions, not to mention similar missions for aviation. Just look at what is happening off the coast of Yemen. Even the yankee navy cannot sustain it indefinitely.
Besides these will be vulnerable to attack. Naval blockades only work against an enemy of inferior sea and air power. The PLA can easily destroy amerikan naval and air assets within the first island chain and amerikan ships at sea. To execute the blockade, the yankees will need to divert ships and concentrate them presumably in the Straits of Malacca. And that's when the PLA can strike. After its ships are lost, how will amerika conduct a war against China? Its a catch 22 for the yankee war mongers.
Yeah, also i wanted to added,
That Single US carrier battlegroup can't even beat the Houthis even after a year.
@@alifm4098 After like 6 mths on the high seas, the yankees are sick and tired of fending off Yemini attack boats and missiles. Imagine sending a 1 million dollar missile against a 1k drone. Just think of the logistics of re-supply and crew getting their leave all cancelled. LOL
The yankees also don't have the ground capability for a land attack. They'll have thei asses handed to them if they tried. Amerikan POW on global tv is the last thing they want.
Once US capital ships and aircrafts are destroyed, it will take them years and years for them to rebuild replacement. US is screwed.
@alifm4098 have you considered the US has no real interest in defeating them? It's not there trade that is affected! If they did care they could turn the entire region into glass.
Why would the US risk their surface fleet in a blockade, when long range drones and submarines would do the job just fine.
Well researched, thanks. Is this a new format kinda thing? Id love to see more.
LOL
The key issue is not "can the US Navy impose a blockade?" but "who would ship valuable goods through an active war zone?" Insurers would either refuse coverage or impose sky-high rates. Mines, torpedoes, drones, and missiles are cheap.
Indonesia and Malaysia border the Straits of Malacca. Both these countries do extensive trade with China. They might not be too receptive to the USN disrupting that trade. USN ships could find themselves under attack, also unable to resupply and refuel
Not to mention, gulf states would also be upset to have their oil trade disrupted too
Yup
China is the largest trading partner for every countries in Asia including Japan and South Korea,Europe follow anglo saxon orders to sanction Europe's largest trading partner which is Russia and now Europe is suffering the consequences with inflation high,recession and factories closing
Additionally, both Malaysia and Indonesia aren't too cosy with the U.S due to the Israeli war on the Palestinians since both nations are Muslim majority. The USN may not find a warm welcome if they need to dock or try to resupply at those countries ports. EVEN if the governments of those two country were to let the USN dock at their ports it will be political suicide because the people will probably rise up with anti-US protests which will put pressure on the governments.
Or Indonesia could benefit exporting materials to America and allies?
Perhaps you missed a point about alternates, One is Gwader Port in Pakistan. That's another alternate / backup route for China's trade / oil supplies if Malacca is blocked or war happens. This port is at mouth of persian gulf, all middle east oil passes right in front of it. There is already a land route connection (highway) from Gwader port straight to China. Russia will be primary oil supplier and then there are other alternates. Malacca was relevant 20 years ago. Today it's blockage will not hurt China as much. Secondly, China has enough Naval power & missile power to deter any blockage at first place.
also , china has huge reserve of its own oil too, china imports lots of oil , but china itself is also big producer of oil in last 60 years, it store most of oil as reserve, also china economy is now using more green engery, it is reducing oil using, another thing is a full on war, means china will cut every supply to US, from everything, such as most of rare earth , china hold 99% of all rare earth , and 100% of techology of extraction and refinery, which US is totally depend on china to supply this in almost every aspect of industry, espeically those electronics and car industry and AI, radar system and missile and chip industry, this will shut down entire supply chain to US defense sector, also entire economy because everything in US are pretty much came from china even those from japan or SK or germany are built with all chinese parts or chemicals or material metals, minerals, rare earth,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
The biggest flaw in the theory is this: ships don't go through the Strait of Malacca because that is the ONLY way to get from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Oceon.
No. They go through that Strait because it is the EASIEST way to get from one to the other.
There is also the entire Indonesian Archipelago.
Ships don't go that route because it is longer and, therefore, more expensive.
Put a blockade in the Strait of Malacca and that is no longer true, and so ships will simply stop using the Strait of Malacca and switch to using the routes through Indonesia.
Yea Indonesia is going to fight by China's side. No doubt giving up all her SCS and any other claims a victorious China will have on Indonesia
I think this is a unique but valid point that no one else has mentioned
@@Mearex_ The blockade can and would extend into the Indian Ocean. As soon as the ships leave the Gulf...
Australian air bases close to Indonesia would make that difficult. Assuming Australia sides with the US.
@@Andy-P true, but blockading the entire Indian Ocean is obviously orders of magnitudes more difficult.
You miss out South America. China is importing wheat and other food as well as iron ore from Brazil. As well as oil from Venezuela.
Food will not be an issue for China, iron ore might be.
But it's pointless in an ongoing war.
You will find China can live without Brazilian imports far easier than America can live with only Brazilian imports.
that goes via the Mallaca straits too
A naval blockade of Chinese ships could be escalated into military action against a Chinese military ship. It would be China’s way of settling the blockade one way or the other instead of letting it draw out. This means after China verified the blockade is no bluff, they may deliverer the knock out punch with a sudden overnight sinking of 3000 large commercial ships en route from/to NATO ports, as well as most NATO military ships at sea. Without shipping, the distant foreign powers are both militarily and economically irrelevant. The reason would be based on China concluding NATO was committed to escalation regardless.
Cargo container ships can easily have some shipping containers hiding many 1200 mile range antiship cruise missiles.
中国绝不会去打击商船，这是无耻的。同样的，把军事设施放在民用设施上也是是无耻的，美国和北约应该不会这么邪恶吧。我们不想与全世界为敌，只想与全世界做生意，我们现在提升军力，只是因为美国在我们家门口设军威胁围堵我们几十年了，我们只想突破出来与世界进行正常的交流，我们真的很讨厌战争。
any blockade is an act of war
China will sink ships in European waters? Maybe the ones in port at that time. Meanwhile the west raises the white flag and surrenders. I mean highly unlikely they will fight back......unlike Pearl Harbour?????
Sounds like fan fiction.
封锁，从国际法和联合国文件军事术语就是直接宣战。美国对古巴用的是隔离。
Well America is forgetting one thing. China has got land border with Russia. China and Russia are in great bilateral relations so Russia has got huge resources of oil and natural gas so there is no problem
you think that that couldn`t be disrupted...
transporting over water is much cheaper than over land, even via pipelines
It's not that easy to switch or ramp up supply. Plus, oil markets are heavily interdependent so any blockade or disruption of any sort anywhere has impacts the world over. Heck, blockading China would not just raise US energy prices, it would make nearly everything more expensive. What's mad is that the world is even preparing for such scenarios when we should be cooperating in ending oil dependence and wars altogether.
@@williamblomster2387 try and see
Blockade the largest navy armed with hypersonic carrier killer missiles? What is your IQ? 70?
They CAN'T STOP THE HOUTIS😂 against CHINA only in Hollywood 😮
The United States already defeated China on a battlefield.
Learn history -- History repeats itself
Stop the Houthis doing what .. firing missiles at merchant ships..... isn't that going to be China's problem?
The US killed
Osama Bin Laden
Ayman al-Zawahiri
Mohamad Atef
Hamza Bin Laden
And KSM is in jail forever
The US also killed
Imad Mughniyeh
Qasem Soleimani
Muammar Gaddafi
Saddam Hussein
Somehow the US usually gets their man
If the US really lost in Afghanistan, then why is it that Afghanistan no longer hosts Al Qaeda?
Russia is a nice to have for China, but it is well capable of defending itself, the maximum Russia will do is to increase the price because they will have an edge in the energy dealings
Russian energy prices are lower than average because of sanctions from EUROPE since the Ukraine war. India also buying Russian energy.
China coal to power their industrial complex mainly their steel mills.
False, Russia is now at the mercy of China.
Russia is almost giving all its OIL and GAS for free to China.
"Beggers can't be choosers"
You know nothing.
If China loses, Russia would be alone to face the US next. Russia has to make sure China wins. Therefore, no increase in oil prices of any kind.
Did you just see the joint naval drills and the joint air bomber patrol done by Russia and China in the past 2 weeks?
Excited to watch after my shift!
You've just dealt a big blow to most of Zeihan's far-fetched predictions about China's imminent collapse in case of US intervention in East Asia
Its hilarious that anyone takes Zeihan seriously
Zeihan is a 🤡
Zeihan's popularity in the West is a testament to the decadence and failure of Western politics, given that an ignorant clown can earn himself endless wealth and attention simply by peddling the banal adage of street politics.
I just realised .... this is the Chinese version to Zeihan 🤣
Zeihan is a clown
China can bypass malacca straits by using the Pakistan and Cambodia ports and then use land transport in event of a blockade. Malacca straits is bordered by Indonesia and Malaysia and the oil is the life line of the Middle East. Will all these countries stand idly by.
Pakistan-China land corridor can handle a couple Hundred trucks by day. When the weather allows it at all.
It's not a solution. It isn't even a drop in the ocean of problems China would be on.
Myanmar too... that's why the US wants to destabilize Myanmar all the time. They were building pipelines to China from the sea.
Indonesia and Malaysia lost territory to the CCP in South China Sea.
Sea transport is only preferred because it's relatively cheaper, that difference is irrelevant in time of war. Pretending you can blockade China from Euroasia via sea is like pretending you can blockade Texas by shutting down Panama canal.
@@tiagogomes3807 You're confusing the number of trucks using those roads today with how many trucks can drive on those roads.
One truck per minute and only 10 hours a day is already 600 a day, and that means you sitting on an empty road for 50 seconds between trucks, lol
I think China will use naval blockade tactics in the future. This is because many Western countries are maritime nations (the EU is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, while Canada and the United States are surrounded by the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Arctic Ocean). China has built good relations with Russia and Central Asian countries through many years of diplomatic efforts, and is separated from India by the Himalayas. This means that there is no need to worry about military logistics being cut off on land transport, and the military resources of the People's Liberation Army Ground Force can be incorporated into sea power and air power. From now on, China will build naval and air force bases on sea lanes around the world, and if it carries out a naval blockade with a fleet of nuclear submarines and nuclear aircraft carriers, it will be able to hold the lifeline of all Western countries.
Keep in mind that China is reducing its need for oil and gas by increasing its nuclear, solar, wind, and hydro sources. Especially nuclear, China will have the world's largest nuclear power fleet in the world by 2035.
As for bypassing the Malacca Straits, there are also routes to China via Pakistan, Myanmar, and Cambodia. And, if the Kra Canal becomes reality, another route to bypass the Malacca Straits will exist.
Good points... and canals are so difficult to block
The land routes are small compared to the sea transport.
@@gvibration1 Pakistan, Myanmar, and Cambodia are sea routes then land either by pipeline or rail. Look at a map.
@@MASMIWA sea routes will be blocked.
@@gvibration1 You wish.
The idea of a naval blockade against China is similar to how the West thought that massive sanctions on Russia would destroy Russia's economy during the start of the Ukraine War. While sanctions caused intitial damage and panic in Russia, the Russian economy quickly adapted, while the sanctions also did major damage to EU economies. I believe a naval blockade against China will play out in a similar way.
Thanks.
I hope it doesn't come
To that.
Metoo
The United States is not self sufficient with oil although we produce a lot, it isn’t used for domestic use. Our refineries aren’t made to refine the thicker us oil but more finer oil from other countries. We extract our oil and trade it with other countries to get oil that our refineries use
Even if the Malacca strait is blocked, can just use Sunda strait... Or any of the waters in Indonesia. Whats usa gonna do? Block all of Indonesia's waters inside Indonesia?
India and Australia are also in the QUAD.
Here’s a recent quote from Bloomberg; _The three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the aerospace industry and the Mining industry. The three largest employers in the United States are Walmart, McDonalds and Home Depot._
today, chinese navy is more powerful than US , china has more modern warships and more 5th gen fighter jet and long range b m,or, also more advanced electronic warfare planes and early warning planes,, and more crucially china has way more subs and more anti ship supersonic BMs such as DF17 DF21 DF26, and other BM , it covers west pacific and can reach australia, and south indian ocean, a regiment of DF21A can easiley pieces entire US carrier groups including all its ships with ease,
The United States already defeated China on a battlefield.
Learn history -- History repeats itself
So what are they waiting for?
@@Andy-P Correct.. Some people need to claim their 2 inch pecker is a monster
等你们动手啊！？除了恐吓以外！@@Andy-P
@@Andy-P they are waiting for US to finally recognize the reality and stop its aggression.
Congratulations on another excellent video.
Why you did not discuss about the blockade of all supplies to the US? If there is war, all ships that sails to USA will also face missiles and rockets and massive drone strikes. What if Russia and China team up to face the US and their allies? What about North Korea?
hahahahaha
Problem is that US has pretty much every mineral needed and oil/gas/coal.
@@heksogen4788 There will always be people that need to claim their 2 inch pecker is a MONSTER. Ignoring everything else on purpose.
So its the game of who gonna survive longer
Unlikely that North Korea would contribute anything to a global naval war.
Let us hope it never comes to this
It's more effective to clear the blockade militarily and reinforced the straits than to do all that's mentioned. How much is the US willing to lose to hold the blockade?
About as much the Chinese are I reckon
Plus Japan, India and Australia.
18:40 - it seems to me one other very obvious point that appears to have been omitted is the fact that if Chinese food imports are halted, Chinese food EXPORTS would also likely be halted, therefore the surplus supplies that can no longer be exported would be diverted to domestic consumption, & partially fill any import gap. Moreover, it's important to point out the nuance that much of China's food imports are luxury imports - fancy meats, seafood, etc. In war time, a more spartan diet can be enforced to mitigate any shortfalls.
Chinese on war can eat only potato & rice & salt. Vegetables. Vegetarians diet.
I'm sure that what I said. I talked about 'net imports' of food, which means imports minus exports.
@@EurasiaNaval ahh yes, I stand corrected.
Great Video. I would also be interested in video about how many USN ships it would take for a blockade, if other simultaneous operations are possible, and how vulnerable they would be to PLAN attacks.
What most people get wrong & is probably on the U.S side; is that fact that the U.S has many allies. Japan, South Korean, Australia, also probably India, and Vietnam (maybe on those two) and those are just the allies in indochina/western pacific
“allies” more like Puppets and Occupied Colonies. Nobody wants to wind up like Ukraine. Look at Ukraine the U.S. is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. Too Chicken to do it’s own dirty work.
China was fighting NATO in Korean war and Vietnam war with farmers and no air support.
China was able to push the US and their allies all the way back! Those 2 war isn't about NK or Vietnam vs US, but the US and its allies vs China.
Now imagine with modern weapons on China's side. That's why the US think their biggest threat is not Russia, but China, because China is the only one push them back on its own!
Oil? No problem as Russia already provided as many as it can. Do they still think they can block Southeast Asia by using my country against Mainland is just absurd.
They are most welcome to try. It seems someone is clueless as to the simple fact that the largest supplier of China oil is also the closest to it, just to the north of its northern coast.
Yes --- You are clueless.. Thank you for pointing that out.
Yea, how's that new pipeline going. Last I heard China was sticking out for a better price from the Russians. Oil pipelines are long and hard to defend.
@@Andy-P Undefended pipelines are undersea pipelines and nobody owns the sea, not land based pipelines.
Or dont you know?
Oil price is subject to supply and demand. If mideast oil is blocked where do you think China will b clawing its oil back to?
Where have you been? inside a cave?
@@mejust8392 It is of course possible to defend pipelines. Just takes a lot of effort to do so along their entire length
@@Andy-P Nobody defends an undersea or under-ocean pipeline.
You can try and be the first.
老粉了，每期都看，讲的真的好非常客观全面，要不要考虑去中文网站上发？
Are there a lot of Chinese publications that do that already?
@@camt8804基本没有😢
If Thailand and China build the canal linking the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, oil shipments to China won't need to go through the Straits of Malacca.
Thailand can never be trusted
That is why U.S. protesting.
Easy to blockade.
@@gvibration1 easy to torpedo blockading ships.
@@Wooster77easy to lay mines at the entrance and exit of canals
The real question is
WHO THE **** does USA Think they are?
A fascist white nationalist Empire!
Dreamers lol🤣
Exceptional!
More than you
They are delusional 😂
Green Energy?
EV'S?
Best Public Transport of the world?
This is an easy solve for China. Just sell air and sea defence system to Malaysia and Indonesia at heavily discounted price to a point they can rival us vassal states in SEA. Subsiding some 5th gen jets to them too will further secure malacca straits for themselves and inevitably for China.
Yea, Malaysia and Indonesia really want to fight for China........why?
@@Andy-P why would they help US? Back at you
@@Wvk5zc Good question. I think they would try and stay as neutral as possible. So they could sell stuff to China.... and America but not escort the ships passed their territorial waters - 12 miles. At that point the Chinese or Americans could strike. I'm basing this on WW1 when America supped both sides. I think the vast majority of countries including China's neighbours will not want to get directly involved unless they have to or there is a clear winner. Oh yes America will be keen these countries don't allow over flights for Chinese aircraft or any other support and threaten to intern them. I expect China to demand the same. But this is more of a gray area.....
Indonesia has already ordered French fighters, they don't need anything from China.
Note that the overwhelming majority of Russian resources are transported to China via the Indian Ocean and Malacca. When China loses access to the Persian Gulf, it will also lose access to the overwhelming majority of Russian resources, too.
Also note that the great circle arc from China to anywhere in the Western Hemisphere runs along the US West Coast, up by the Aleutians, and down past the main Japanese islands. Shipping from the New World is easily interdicted. Mark that down as a loss as well.
1、你的地理知识如此缺失真是让人吃惊，请你多看看世界地图。2、日本作为二战战败国，根据联合国决议，五常依然享有驻军权和直接使用核武器权力。3、你太缺乏对亚洲政治和历史的了解。
@@tonyhy5698You need to look at some detailed maps, and you need to learn what Siberia is. Siberia is a continent-sized swamp and is one of the most formidable barriers to transport on the planet. The infrastructure across Siberia was mostly built by the USSR. Much of it was built with gulag labor at an unknown but sky high cost in human lives. The infrastructure across Siberia was sized to support the Russian Far East. It is inadequate- by multiple orders of magnitude- for supporting China.
@@yopyop3241 中国有个谚语故事。外国人看到前面有座山，会绕过去或翻过去，当完全不通后就是祈祷上帝。中国人是团结起来一点点在山前掘出一条路，以保后人能都通过。（愚公移山）
@@tonyhy5698Infrastructure across Siberia is built by Russians. Do the Russians have a proverb about volunteering to bail out a dying China?
@@tonyhy5698Russia forbids China from building infrastructure across Siberia, so the sentiment in your quote is worthless here.
Should do a follow up video this time going into goods the US will no longer receive from China after a blockade. The main ones I can think of is legacy chips and pharmaceuticals.
Chinese long range cruise & hypersonic missiles will make sure every US surface ship is sunk if they come anywhere close. Literally they make so many missiles they can blot out the sun. Then the only option US has is submarines, but those will have to fend against hordes of Chinese subs with their own sonar network near their coastal waters, whilst helicopters will be hunting from the skies. US cannot secure air dominance since Chinese air-defense and jets will make sure nothing survives in the sky within their range. US carriers in particular will be useless due to hypersonic threat.
hahahaha Do you overstate everything in your life ??
Is your little 2 inch pecker a MONSTER ??? hahaha
American subs are invisible
@@SilverforceX what is China waiting for then. Sounds like be all over by lunch time with Emperor Xi planning his victory parade in Tapei ... then Tokyo finally Washington where the Whitehouse will become his American residence
Yes, like the one that was rammed in the South China Sea. Pathetic ignorance!
@@bubuneowoo6161 Rammed by a CCP reef?
this planet doesn't only belong to US.
It belongs to the Middle Kingdom.
Cjona is not Japan WWII. Japan was truly foreign resource dependent, whereas China is not full dependent but has 50% self sufficiency. With means china may surfer but wont die like Japan or Germany would. It has large territory and has almost everything to satisfy its minimum/war time needs
China has large Naval and Air Force base island near Malaysia and Palawan island
@@totzinfo which island is that Singapore?
The closest one in ream cambodia now.
@@andrean2247 Thanks for responding
Did U.S forget that Russia exist? If they put blockade malacca strait then china can just buy those oil from Russia
The US poses a greater threat than is suggested here. For example, producing dietary protein is no small thing… Chinese soy imports are massive. But as an American, I think this is all insanity. We’re really going to fight a war, just to keep another country from developing? And let’s say it is successful and Chinese begin to starve… are we really sure they won’t use nukes in retaliation? It’s unlikely, but we’re taking a huge risk to fight a country that is clearly happy to live in peace with us.
Because the white house is in coccaine, remember they got it few years ago?
China will not starve, they are agriculture origin people, and there are a massive wheat production from russia also.
China import goods are to balance the trade.
What do you think to import goods from US if not foods? Household? Electronic? Chips? Car? 😂😂😂😂😂 they have them all.
No air defence system is immune to being overwhelmed by bombardment en masse. Didn't learn anything from Operation Millenium Challenge back in '02, did we?
it is very stupid idea to have blockage to China. how will it affect to Middel eastern countries? who they can sell the oil beside China?
For example, European countries or the United States?
You think the US cares for Saudi more than its desire to defeat China?
@@williesaw1213 rest of the world that imports oil?
The gas production chart at 6:20 is a bit odd. The two biggest producers of natural gas are Australia and Qatar but they are not mentioned on the chart.
As you have already stated, China would require the cooperation of Russia and surrounding countries for support during war time. As for items such as steel and aluminium for military production, China would cease exporting and non-aligned countries will find themselves without these materials, the US and allies would need these materials for their own military production, which they won't have. Given Chinese naval power and missiles, US and allies would find it difficult to blockade Chinese imports for long. Both sides would find themselves losing ships and planes which would be required for both the blockade and war efforts. China's unsinkable carriers (manmade island fortresses) would also come into play in attacking enemy forces. There are just too many variables to be certain that China would even "suffer". China could also count on its energy reserves for the short term, etc until it removes the blockade
Where is the water supply for the "unsinkable aircraft carriers"?
@@Andy-P Rainwater catchment, desalination, resupply ships and planes and the list goes on 😂😂😂
@@Andy-Pdesalination tech. See singapore. artificial rain, Weather engineering.
@@pv4509 Thanks for replying and indicating all those very vulnerable sources of fresh water. All of them easily defeated in a war. Small airstrip, small harbour and desalination equipment and associated fuel easy to see and hit. Yes of course there is rain water. That is impossible to stop.
@@Andy-P Electronic Warfare systems would blind US missiles. Chinese naval vessels as well as defensive systems on the islands would counter US naval assets. US warships couldn’t handle the Houthis with far inferior weapons, Russians are jamming and destroying US made weapons as we speak. Chinese kicked US butt during Korean War with just ground forces, what do you think an on par Chinese force will do now
Can you make more videos, perhaps every few days. I enjoy your content alot.
they dont call thier hypersonic missiles 'carrier sinkers' for nothing ? ?
hahahaha The gullible leading the blind
Correct. It's for domestic consumption like wolf warrior
Another ignorant Endian
China is rapidly diversifying its energy generation technologies and electrifying transportation. In doing so, China is pursuing a strategy of distributed generation. Furthermore, China is building a rail network with BNR partners to reduce dependance on shipping through the Malacca Straits. So, even assuming the US would actually attempt such a blockade, short-term impacts could be mitigated.
China can also block shipment from US and Europe.
By deploying its navy to the Atlantic Ocean. I guess the nuke subs could go there. Will give the European Navies something to deal with and keep them out of Asia. Long transit routes though....
Blockading the Atlantic Ocean from China?
Also, they need Indonesia's blessing to do the blockade. They also have the patrol the Indian ocean because companies will just take the longer route to the straits in Indonesia. Thus making Indonesia a key ally to both China and the US.
China doesn't need to do much to woo Indonesia. It just needs to have friendly relations because Indonesia is able to make some money off this change in shipping routes. Thus trade can still go through but US on the other hand needs to woo Indonesia.
Indonesia has lost territory to the CCP in the South China Sea.
I just thought of this right now:something like this will bring the world to a crossroads:Choosing China or the US.
@@mobiuszero1018 ...or sit on the fence.
so glad that the US in a war only tries to blockade the Strait of malacca, not the whole first island chain, what Luck for China, and also so what a win, that a country that hasn't been alone in any major war for the lst 120 years, this time goes in without any allies (which however are the casus belli). There are so many strategic and operational complexities, that are quite interesting, and I dont know how it would play out. But the take here, is just sooo devoid of any complex thought....
US is going to FAFO
Images of empty grocery store shelves are a bit misleading. The USA doesn't import much food from the PRC, and what it does import can be replaced
US imported 98% electronics from China. Automobile parts, rare earth minerals, clothes even US F-35 jets part are made in China. Basically, US don't have the same logistics and production with China. Even your warship and carrier need to dock at Japan for repair, the recently damaged Connecticut has to be retired because of lack of known-how technicians. Chemical and Pharmas all sources from China.
It is delusional to think US can replace the current imported goods and stuff during wartime. Even the rare earth refinery technologies is monopoly by China, it's would take US more than 20years to develop according to your own expert.
The United States is indeed an agricultural power, and he can satisfy himself. But I don't think he can provide good quality and cheap daily necessities, but the COVID-19 pandemic has raised prices, and conflict with China is unimaginable
Toilet tissue, diapers. Menstrual pad. nececcities.
The blockade would harm its allies eg japan, taiwan, korea, pinoi more than China
Very possibly. But it's who wins on the end that counts
@@Andy-Pthe end of that, NK will take SK, China will take Taiwan, Japan and Phi will ask for peace and to be a new allies.
@@Andy-P so they are expendable in the end? Some "friends" US are lmao
The US thanks them for their sacrifice.
@@january10005 that is one scenario.....
China has plenty of oil reserves themselves. They just chose to import first.
Riiight. That’s definitely what the CCP has the general Chinese populace believing.
In contrast, easily conducted foreign government and foreign industry intelligence gathering has found that the people who actually work in the Chinese petroleum industry believe otherwise.
What would toiletless country, US poodle 🐩lapdog do ??
Nothing. Would sit on the sidelines. If China started to lose big time then maybe risk moving into Tibet and pushing back in the other areas
@@Andy-P
Absolutely agree
But it will just sit there and yelp, yelp, yelp
😂😂
@@TingTong-mh6ns yelp yelp yelp. Though I don't consider them a lapdog considering their relationship with Russia. No where near an ally. If they got involved they would have their own agenda which America would want little to dp with
@@Andy-P
India is 2 faced. Sitting on the fence to get as much advantage as possible. India is in BRICS and the SCO and in the US led Quad too. And even attended the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan. It's not to be trusted.
Russia literally next door about to give a MASSIVE discount on oil : 🗿🍷
Nah, that’s silly. Russia will jack the price up sky high. At those prices, they would love to send a lot more, but they’ll be prevented from doing so by the scanty infrastructure across Siberia.
China is gorging out Russia due to its on going war and getting huge concessions for supplies. Russia is going to do the same when the shoe's on the other foot. They're only allies against the United States.
If say one day a very isolationist America 1st president gets in office and declare to the world they are not going to care what happens outside America and focus on rebuilding America only. Russia and china might go back to being at each other's throats over Siberia, Manchuria and likely the entire Russian far east
China can do the same with its navy bigger than usa although tonnage is much smaller .
Its about the missile numbers, not tonnage
there are no restrictions on when and where Chinese can drive ..and they have millions of electric cars anyway ..
And electric can come from nuke reactors
How would Walmart get its products to sell.
Excellent point. Walmart won't be able to import the white surrender flags that America will desperately be needing.
finally something rather unbiased. those of yall who think hes biased hes not.
Why the US always act like an asshole..
Because china defeated USA in 3 times wars, korea, vietnam and afghanistan 😂😂😂
USA wants to revenge 😅
Do you think the countries bordering the Straits of Malacca will allow it?
Yes. They have indicated that they will likely remain neutral.
F* around and find out!
F* the Empire, F* the Monroe doctrine!
America doing crazy things as downfall starts now loosing in every sector's.
China has a lead in 37 important sectors while the U.S. only leads in 7
I’m half expecting China to make an aircraft carrier that pays for itself by creating a million ton oil tanker dedicated to shipping Mideast oil to China. The tanker would be big enough to have a runway on top with some military aircraft. Such a large ship would be an economically viable candidate for nuclear powered propulsion. The ship would pay for itself by shipping oil and 10 of them could be built for economies of scale.
The only blockade that might work is the entrances to the Indian Ocean including Singapore. But if it comes to that, NATO shipping in western Pacific and their allies Japan S Korea Taiwan Philippines will also be blockaded for the duration.
US foreign policies has created enough enemies and land routes for China to punch through any blockades or choke points. Thanks to “Freedom Of Navigation” any advantages of maritime strategies had evaporated.😂😂😂
So I think there are two distinct scenarios here that could involve a blockade. The first is an all out war between America and China where a blockade is used in conjunction with other military means. Cutting 60% of Chinese oil supplies would significantly limit Chinese military and industrial capacity, which means fewer Chinese ships operating at sea and fewer replacements being produced when they suffer losses, allowing America and her allies to gain a substantial lead in materiel. This will also lead to significant inflation in China and uncomfortable restrictions on the lives of ordinary Chinese people, which makes the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan in the first place less attractive.
The other scenario is that America imposes an indefinite blockade on China as a response to an invasion of Taiwan that falls short of all-out war. Eventually the Chinese economy would shift to get around this, although there would be significant short term hardships and long term limitations. More importantly for the US, it would decouple China from the global economy, essentially operating as a "Continental System" for the US. It would be a big step towards containment of the Russo-Sino-Iranian axis, essentially boxing them in. This would play into the weaknesses of current Chinese strategic decision making, which focuses on securing the territory immediately around China and just relying on freedom of movement in international waters. By cutting them off from the world, the first island chain goes from being China's Great Wall to being China's prison fence.
you think too highly of the Americans 🤣
No mentions of the socio-economic impact it would have on the US and the west as a whole? The loss of trade with the single biggest producer of finished products for America would have severe consequences for it, and raises serious questions about how it would last without major social upheaval/breakdown. Sure, the US may be a bigger oil producer, but oil alone won't save America in a confrontation with China.
Not to mention the diplomatic and political pressure from outside and socio-political pressure from inside would mean that even if the US were to "win", it would be pyrrhic, as the economy would be on the floor by then. It wouldn't be able to afford a large standing military of superpower levels at that point, let alone have the economic power to project power.
And that, is assuming China somehow won't hit the blockading fleets with an ever-expanding arsenal of interdiction weapons, which only continues to grow by the day.
@@the-shut-in-yt-watcher But keep in mind that China’s trade will already be shut down.
As noted repeatedly throughout the comments section, a blockade is an act of war. The most likely way a war between the US and China starts is with a Chinese sneak attack on US and Japanese forces as part of an invasion of Taiwan. The blockade will be imposed as a backstop behind the shutdown of Chinese trade due to the targeting by the various combatants of all vessels seeking to enter or exit the East China Sea.
The initial economic effects that you are decrying will already be baked in as a result of China’s decision to launch its sneak attack. The blockade is much more of a long term strategy. And I do mean long term. It is likely that the blockade will still be in place many decades after the fighting dies down.
Although China imports 60% of its oil, not all petroleum products are consumed by the Chinese.
China extracts various materials from petroleum and uses them to produce various products, such as: pharmaceutical raw materials, explosives raw materials, plastic products Dyes, synthetic fibers and other commodities, and exported large quantities to countries around the world.
For example, the United States imports 80% of its pharmaceutical raw materials from China, India imports 70% of its pharmaceutical raw materials from China, and Vietnam and Bangladesh imports large amounts of dyes and fabrics from China.
If China stopped exporting completely, it would immediately save a lot of oil.
As a result of an all-out war with China, the U.S. would have a massive shortage of goods, and thus the U.S. would experience severe inflation, while China would have the opposite situation, with deflation due to a huge backlog of goods.
Great video that befits the channel.
While addressed, China did well when no household held a car for private transportation - what can't be switched to electric or gas driven public transport can always be reversed to BICYCLES - unthinkable in the US, but well accustomed in Chinese tradition.
We heard little on the Sino-Russian *'Power of Siberia' pipeline expansion* - or whether any effort was made to extend pipelines from the Yamal fields far into the 'Power of Siberia' lines... since *natural gas export to the European Union will **_never_** come back as long as the Norwegian oilfields are operational* , there is certainly an incentive for such a large scale Sino-Russian infrastructure investment...
If there were sufficient *LNG gas terminals at Yamal, Sabetta* the *North East Passage* it would allow for the respective gas imports by China much faster than a pipeline construction would take...if China had built several *LNG tankers* , recently it can be interpreted as timely preparations toward that very scenario...
Readily available energy beside coal is arguably the only strategic resource, China is depending on to import - but so is Europe if anything were to happen to Norwegian and Saudi trade routes or ports - as is currently happening to Israeli shipping through Yemen... one can assume that China has not only hoarded physical gold to hedge it's currency, but has also built up strategic stockpiles of metals like iron for steel production - how much will be anyone's guess, considering Chinese 'stratagem accounting methods' during the massive construction boom of the last three decades...
What the video makes clear, is how grave the incentives are that resulted in *the Sino-Russian Joint Statement of January 2022* - weeks before the Russian military intervention in the Ukrainian civil war...
What is also clear: the Americans will try to choke the Straits of Malacca and the Pakistani and Myanmar ports to the 'Burma Roads', anyway - as they will join Israel in attacks on Iran - and thus there may be *a blow-back to all maritime shipping through novel unmanned underwater drones (including Russian nuclear armed 'Status-6 Poseidon', transferred to North Korea)* , rendering the US desired New World Order of 2035 rather akin a 'Fallout Series'...
We have all been warned.
Oh China, you get more and more like North Korea everyday
No, NK become like china day by day.
That's what war mongering Yankee colonialist would say 😁
Typically US style to have a massive navy in the name of protecting the movement of shipping and free trade around the world but to actually intend to use it to blockade shipping!
USN cant even do nothin with Houthis .. i doubt it can do sheet 😂
The United States already defeated China on a battlefield.
Learn history -- History repeats itself
There is a political dimension of the blockade of the Strait of Malacca that wasn't discussed much here. I don't think the nations surrounding the strait will be that compliant with an outside power to do whatever it wants here. But the video is correct in pointing out by the time the United States lines up its ducks to blockade the strait, China will have taken Taiwan already, and maybe more.
I feel like this channel is just all about how "great" china is, and all just Chinese propaganda
You must be depressed reality is not travelling well for you.
The truth is pretty frightening!!
The author is from Taiwan, he is neutral.
More and more I’m learning how much propaganda goes on in the United States.