I am french and let me tell you : our country is VERY divided. On one hand, as you said, there is the far left, then the far right, then Macron. But, many less polarized people struggle to find good representation : many voted for Macron as the only option, socialists voted for Melanchon or the green party (neither truly hold the same exact values as the Parti Socialiste used too). Meanwhile on the right, your choice is either Lepen (who also strays further and further from the traditional ideas) or candidates laking any charisma (Valérie Pécresse). So, here we have a huge gap comprised of center left/center right without any real effective representation, if we exclude Macron (who even among his followers, is not really appreciated anymore to say the least). and that's how we end up with 26% of abstention even during the first tour of the presidential elections. This is a disaster : we are heading more and more towards a two party system like the US. This is shame considering the plurality of opinions in France.
@@pacotaco1246 far-left is seven different kinds of stupid if you flip s*** at the very mentioning of the far-right you should have the same reaction to the far left
@@pacotaco1246 Feel like the whole "far left" is made up by right wingers to say "look they are extreme too!". For i have no idea wtf far left is, people who wants free education, healtcare, better worker right, pro immegration?
The end of a war, the start of another, changing economics and trade ties, a likely recession and the ability for any of these leaders to mess somehing up. This video was just made because the current president has done some unpopular things so some people would prefer another. Its practically click bait
Perhaps not everyone has such short memories. Why are you so certain that these revolts occurring today will be forgotten tomorrow? I would wager that YOU are being too speculative.
Still, a lot of hopeful far-righters everywhere consider a Lepen victory a done deal for some reason (and of course according to them this would lead to the death of the EU, again), so I guess it`s not so bad to kind of set things straight.
Perhaps not everyone has such short memories. Why are you so certain that these revolts occurring today will be forgotten tomorrow? I would wager that YOU are being too speculative.
Hollande was right wing. Even though he presented himself as being on the left with a historically left-wing party, his party had gradually drifted to the right since 1983 and he himself was on the right of this party. He led a policy very close to that of Macron, Macron who was also his adviser and then Minister of the Economy, so clearly a right-wing policy at the service of the richest.
The biggest problem in France is that most people don't vote anymore for the candidate they really support, but for the candidate which is the most likely able to beat the one they cannot support at all... And it's quite ironic that 20 years ago, French people voted the "moderate" candidate to block the far-right candidate ; whereas nowadays, many people would vote the far-right to block the "moderate" candidate... sincerely, in 2022, how many people voted Macron just to eliminate Le Pen, and vice versa ? It's really ridiculous. I think that France urgently needs new institutions and a big reform to unite people instead of dividing them. The Fifth Republic shows more and more its limits and inadequation with the new political landscape, reducing voters' trust, increasing abstention and extreme behaviors, and the last months events clearly show that it's not possible anymore to give so much power to a President who doesn't have a clear majority... we are not anymore in a context of WWII sequel when it was necessary. But I'm afraid that a very few politicians would have the guts to call this system into question...
That's what polarization does, it turns each and every policy position into a pass/fail exercise, and no one can pass them all for more than a handful of the electorate. When it becomes "you must match code 345457224545898987583 or you have at least one position I refuse to support, no one's going to match that code. So you just end up going "well, they match eleven digits, I suppose I'll settle" that naturally leads to disappointment.
Bullshit. The right wing vote consistently for the candidate they really support. That does not make them more astute or savvy voters. Many do so by blind loyalty to the Le Pen family name. The real problem is candidates like Macron who have tried to game the system and rule by being the least hated. They are the true demagogues and sleazes who destroy confidence in the institutilns, in political parties, in democracy. If like me you have voted Macron but find his policies disgusting - it is not your fault - just a trick he played on us. Voting for the moderate candidate is not always the best course of action - it's just the lazy choice of the uninformed voters. Also the 5th republic does not give this much power to the executive. It is the Macron executive that has grabbed for this kind of power. None of the successors to Macron is to his left and none supports any political reforms. So if you want more 49.3 politics, vote for them : they will deliver you into the hands of the right wing in less than 10 years from now.
Yes, I think you're quite right. Here's my hot take on the current French institutions of the 5th Republic : The 5th Republic nowadays is in a similar spot as was the USSR 40 years ago. Let me explain: - Both cases involve a system emerging 60 years in the past, in a tough context for the country (Russian revolution and civil war vs. Algeria war and threat of coup by military officials) - Both regimes were founded around an ideology strongly associated with one charismatic leader (Communism/Marxism with Lenin and later Stalin vs. Gaullism with Charles de Gaulle), with personality cults revolving around them (the USSR imposed personality cult of Lenin and Stalin on the citizens vs. Charles de Gaulle already had it, being basically worshipped like a god by many French people 60 years ago, and still today), which ensuing leaders are explicitly or implicitly expected to follow in the footsteps. - At this point in time, this regime is showing signs of weaknesses (the USSR of the 1980s was chronically corrupt and dysfunctional on every level, as shown by a report from KGB and then communist party leader Iuri Andropov, not to mention the Afghan quagmire vs. Macron provoking massive unrest and resentment in the population by, among other things, abusing the institutions to pass an unpopular law).
@@christianterraes8334 Waouh, quelle argumentation, je ne peux qu'y adhérer instantanément. De toute façon, que je supporte Le Pen, ou Macron, ou ni l'un ni l'autre, ça n'enlève absolument rien au problème de base : l'abstention progresse de plus en plus, aucun candidat ne dépasse la barre des 30% au premier tour, beaucoup de Français ne se sentent plus représentés car les institutions donnent trop de pouvoir à la majorité présidentielle et pas assez à l'opposition ; bref, la crise démocratique va continuer. Et ce n'est pas juste un changement de président qui va la résoudre d'un seul coup, mais toute une réforme des institutions à mener. Soit dit en passant, les extrêmes ne parviennent pas toujours à s'installer de façon durable, cf. Trump et Bolsonaro qui n'ont effectué qu'un seul mandat. Comme quoi, même si c'est une solution alléchante au premier abord, ce n'est pas pour autant garanti qu'elle va solutionner la crise de façon pérenne.
Surprised to see there is no word on the NUPES, the alliance uniting effectively all left-wing parties. "France Unbowed", while being the strongest element of this alliance to this day, is not alone and the chance of success the left will have in 2027 will likely depend on the stability of the alliance and the ability to coordinate and agree on a single candidate in order to avoid splitting the vote like in 2022.
Yeah it's weird not to talk about the NUPES alliance especially since it's the first time in 25 years that the left united. But it has many challenges internally and we'll see what they do for the 2024 European elections
lets be real NUPES doesn't stand a chance, it is a mismash of the left from the far to the center all the way to the greens. It does not have any real ideology and raison d'être except "not being the right", which isn't enough and is already filled by Macron and I can't see them uniting for real. All the while Lepen has pretty much a monopoly on the right with only center right Les republicains and far far right Zemmours party that are pretty much minorities.
Unfortunately, left-wing parties are too proud to ally themselves for a presidential polling... They could have a chance in 2022 with an independent vote destined to left-wing voters to select a single candidate for left-wing parties, but idid worse than better. Not only none of the left-wing candidates withdraw, but we almost had one more (Christine Taubira), which luckily withdrawed at last minute because she didn't have enough sponsorships to stand. It clearly shows that even with an opportunity to be more unite, they managed to be more divided... it's really hopeless. Nonetheless, they (after all !) united as NUPES for legislative polling... but even in this context, they remain quite divided, and the other parties don't really like the idea to be Mélenchon's sidekicks. So unless it evolves during the next four years, I'm afraid they will likely do the same mistake they did in 2022... and with all the respect, if opponent parties in Turkey understood that uniting is the key to overthrow the actual president, it would be a shame for French parties not to understand that...
*sigh* Well at least, there's no more need for invasion between european nations, we'll all be saved or fucked deeply at the same moment for the same reasons by the same people ....
A small comment. 06:48 "Macron having never held elected office emerged" - this statement is technically correct. However, this should be nuanced. It doesn't mean that Macron was unknown to the general public and emerged from anonymity (the anti-establishment theory of new candidates). On the contrary, he is an elitist, Science Po/ENArque - meaning he always had ambitions of the highest order, it's like how in the UK you have Eton alumni having a guaranteed government career. He was a member of the cabinet of Manuel Valls (2014-2016) and also worked personally with Francois Hollande (2012-2014) as assistant secretary to the Presidency (some say he was personally ushered/mentored by Hollande). In any case, he was never seen as anti-establishment, he tried to be seen as "new" but this didn't work. I think this might be the difference between the Anglo-Saxon and Continental views on office, particularly on elected office. To be noted that in France, elected office is not as significative as in the UK for example, with some exceptions (the mayoral elections in big cities) the public's disinterest for parliamentary elections (national and european) are quite significant in the past 10 years.
The comparision between Eton and ENA is not relevant. Eton is a private school for boys only, until the age of 18. The tuition fee is £46 K per year, and the selection is based on revenue and who you parents are. ENA's selection is based on academic skills, with one of the most compettive test there is. It's for students (20 y.o. +), men and women. The fee is much lower than any British university. So ENA can be compared to Oxford and Cambridge, both universities do provide a number of elite members, but Eton is a totally different story.
@@camillecotillard8706 I beg to differ. It's still an elitist institution. In France, if you don't have the money to go at prep schools you don't have a chance of getting into ENA (or SciencesPo). Yes, you have scholarships and other supportive financial instruments, but all and all, it doesn't change the principal elitist characteristic of those types of establishments.
@@lixav1 - of course ENA, Polytechnique, HEC, ESSEC is where the French leaders are made, whether it's for business, politics or engineering. It's "la crême de la crême". Just like Oxford, Cambridge, or the IVY league in the US. But again Eton is on different world, it's an aristocratic institution that selects people on money and background, not on academic skills. Money can buy you Eton, but it can't buy you ESSEC, Médecine or Normal Sup. Different take on "élite".
@@camillecotillard8706 Yes but I gave that example to emphasise the "elitist" characteristic of two very different systems (French and UK), Eton is for the "regular" UK learning institutions like ENA/ScPo is for their "regular" French counterparts. I agree that they are different types of elitism but I never said they were 1:1 copies of each other.
@@lixav1 - I get your point, and I agree that at the end of the day Macron is the "product of an elite factory". One comment I would add, is that Eton being so expensive, it tends to create "Conservatives" leader only. You can't be a credible Labour leader if you went to Eton. ENA on the other hand creates both left wing and right wing politicians. Anyway, nice discussing with you :)
Politics in France are more about taking stances than bringing actual solutions. The problem is that no party wants to compromise on anything. The left is refusing to discuss anything on security matters and immigration, while the right and far right are linking all problems to these two subjects. On the opposite, no party wants to work on complex subjects, like health (hospital, local doctors, ...) or housing, because you cannot solve these problems by communicating on a series of measures the government would implement. Even the electorate of the parties are not very keen to compromise : LFI (far left) focuses on young students and people living in poor districts of the big cities, who have a very intense conception of far left policies Ecologic party relies on educated and wealthy urban who tends to have a very idealistic and far from practice idea of Ecology LREM (Macron's party) relies on retired or wealthy voters who are mostly liberals (economically speaking) and conservative RN (far right) electorate basis relies mostly on racist, poor and lower middle classe voters, in small to medium cities where unemployment is very high More and more, RN is attracting voters angry at LREM for its liberal laws, and at the far left for its electorate I am afraid communication is broken between the parties and the people for theses stances, and no compromises can be found
@@FoxTrotteur ik . I am French but I also know that it is difficult for people to pronounce foreign names and words. For instance, for the war in Ukraine they’ve improved greatly on their pronunciation
French are always correcting their language. Don't bother the other comments about the pronunciation. I'm really grateful you are talking about my country ❤
A reminder to all the non-EU watchers - saying that France has only had 2 left-of-center presidents since the founding of the republic does not mean what it would mean across the pond; Europe in general is far more left-wing than the US or Canada in general, thus our "center" is where most other countries moderate left would be.
Really ? Macron even coming from teh socialist party is as right and liberal as it can be. he just knows that he cannot show it really and has to hide it. but is plan is absolutely clear and his allegance is obvious even if hidden.
And let's not forget about Chaban's social policies. Back then, De Gaulle's conservatism and Chaban's socialism were well balanced and way more common people oriented in their policies than "real socialists" ever were under Mitterand.
@@padriandusk7107 The Communist leader, Georges Marchais, was strongly anti-immigration, believing it a capitalist plot to destroy working-class solidarity. In 2023 parlance, he was a “Far Right” Communist.
Probably a few month before the 2027 elections: *Philippe:* _Sorry I'm late, President. Good polling institutes are so hard to come by this days. So, everything ready to our next election?_ *Macron:* _There is a change of plan, Edouard._ *Philippe:* _What?_ *Macron:* _I decided to lead the fleet of attention to Europe... alone. You will remain here, in France._ *Philippe:* _But, I thought we would do it together!_ *Macron:* _My decision is final._ *Philippe:* _You, you can't treat me like this. You can't treat me like Valls._ *Macron:* _Edouard, silent yourself._ *Philippe:* _But it was my idea to get the leadership of Europe. I deserve to be by your side!_ *Macron:* _Edouard! Listen to me, I need you here to watch over the homeland. It is a very important job that I can only entrust to you._ *Philippe:* _Really?_ *Macron:* _And for your loyalty, I declare you the new President._ *Philippe:* _President Philippe? It does seem appropriate, but what about you?_ *Macron:* _President Macron is no more. Just as the world will be reborn in Nuclear Energy, I will be reborn the prime ruler of Europe. From this moment on, I will be known as the King In Europe!_ (A display of fireworks is happening, while Macron is heading to his personal airplane)
My french friends used to boast of the plurality of french parties compared to the US. But they never vote and out of the dozens of political parties there are none seem to represent them or interest them. Last election cycle felt like American politics without the electoral college (which is a bit scary considering it means that a significant portion of the popular vote will swing far right). But it's understandable after seeing Macron's governance. It's just sad that at the end all the french had was either macron or la pen. Just like another Joe Biden vs Trump. 🤢🤮
You overlooked one of the most likely way out. Adopting proportional representation. The left bloc is officially for it, Marine le Pen is officially for it, half of the Macron coalition is officially for it and it now seems they would also save their ass by switching to proportional representation: Macron’s MPs would keep seats and it will prevent the left bloc or Marine le Pen’s party to get a majority of seats in Parliament. The direct consequence of this would be to strongly diminish the power of the President, whose party would not be able to hold a majority of seats in Parliament. France’s balance of power would evolve towards that of Finland, Poland or Portugal, so the stakes would be deeply reshuffled, with the parliament election becoming the central event of French political life, as they used to be in France and are anywhere else in the EU.
Everyone is strongly in favor of a parliamentary system with a proportional representation until the presidential election comes up and the party leaders figure out that it would strongly reduce their room for manoeuvre once elected.
@@alexism.7441 Today the situation in France is different: Marine le Pen will probably strongly benefit from the current voting system at the next parliamentary elections, while Macron’s party could simply be obliterated by it and fully disappear. Moreover for the first time in the history of France there are three “party coalitions” with none that can get a majority, and under the logics of the two rounds system they are better off out of a coalition. Hence the incentives are completely different than what they usually are. The situation actually looks like the party balance in the Netherlands, Denmark or Luxembourg when they introduced proportional representation in 1917-1919. It is similar to the House of Commons in 1923, when no party had a clear majority with a growing Labour, and at the 1924 election Labour finally replaced the Liberals as the main opponent of the Conservatives. Somehow at the time the Liberals were not able to implement proportional when they were still the main party, they did not feel the momentum, did not reform the voting system and almost disappeared. The same could happen and France could come back to a two party system with on the right a coalition based around Marine le Pen, but I doubt it. The Macron coalition implementing some sort of proportional representation is a more likely outcome. Proportional representation is not the experimental voting system it was in 1923.
@@josipag2185 I too believe that Macron does have common sense, which also explains why he is deeply dangerous for France’s social fabric: he is the least representative president in term of electoral support and yet enjoys wide powers, he knows that he will quit politics at the end of his mandate and therefore “does not have anything to lose” just as much as many of the MPs that support him who equally believe that “after Macron their party will disappear” and are preparing their return to business life instead of being popular to be elected again. Nobody knows what will follow but they are pushing any policy they can without making any compromises, regardless of what the electorate wants.
Let us hope we as a global society can reduce the partisanship of our nations in a way that does not negatively impact the effectiveness of our governents. Patisan governments as in the US are not helpful and only sow the seeds of discontent as I am afraid Le Pen will do. A central government that shares and balances the concerns and views of all people is the democratic (and best) way to achieve both social and economic progress.
"Partisan government" just means a government with 2 or more parties. Political parties that represent different bodies of the electorate are a vital part of democracy. The problem comes from party inefficiency, corruption, or unsustainable polarization. BTW, centrists aren't always perfect for democracy too. They can be either too much on the fence or too controlling. Ie: Macron is a centrist, but the type everyone hates. Furthermore, his actions recently have legitimately been negative to democracy, the rule of law, & cooperation.
LePen will sow the seeds of discontent? didn't Macron push through a policy without it being voted on, didn't Macron appease Xi to such an extent that the Chinese Ambassador to France vented his true feelings about Ex Soviet States, isn't Macron making a play for head of EU without the authority, and making his own overseas policy in direct conflict to Baltic and Nordic States security concerns!?!
It is a good summary but there are two likely candidates Laurent Wauquiez and Eric Ciotti representing "Les républicains" There the remaining of the former president Nicolas Sarkozy's party. And after this term their audience that was absorbed by Macron might come back as a mild opponent.
@@padriandusk7107 they had the same odds last election, that is true but the circumstances will not be the same and the center/center right of macron might loose some voter that goes back to the Republican.
@@remiplainard5968 Problem is, Macron's group is made of everyone that was possibly able to win anything in both the right, the center and the left. Those left behind only won local elections due to loyalty from voters and outright disapprobation of the mess of a group full of opportunists Macron created. Add to this that most heavyweights in the Republican aren't well liked for those who don't vote for the right....and you get only weak pretenders like Pecresse, who should have had at least 10% votes, but was so lame she didn't even get 5%. The only members of LR might've accepted to support and people outside of the right side of politics could've voted for in 2027 were Francois Baroin or Aurelien Pradié. The first one is a solid, well known and liked Chiraquist and have yet to be sent to trials for illegal things and stuff, making him one of the very few of the Repulican with influence to be morally correct. At least, for most people. Problem is, he clearly stated he didn't want to be President or anything of the sort. Probably out of fear of a possible loss that would've destroyed his popularity....or a win that would've put too much light in shadows never uncovered yet. The second one is seen as a young and promising man, trying to bring more social politics and progress and less prone to blame it all on immigration, islam and so on. Problem is, the heavyweighters of the Republicans don't like him for both his personality and ideas and banished him., and people aren't likely to vote for someone like him: right voters will listen to instructions to not make him a candidate, and even if he somehow managed to be so, left voters would have little reason to vote for someone who has yet to show them anything social. The only one who is likely to win is the one who will end up against Le Pen or her sucesssor. And even this, nowadays, is less sure with each passing day....
@@remiplainard5968 The republicans gave their ass to Macron during the retirement reform. They clearly said in the parliament that they are going to back Macron's politics from now on. People will not vote for Macron's dog.
@Tigran-Khan Abazyan it isn't low properly speaking. However, France polling system is made as, if your candidates are from a right wing party or an ultra left one, unless you have 50+% of popularity, you basically already lost, hence my comment. That's what is called "le barrage républicain" and it has been more a norm than an exception since the 90's.
@tigran-khanabazyan I don't know if you know anything about french politics, but you must understand that Marine Le Pen is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who created the Front National and is a far right politician. In 2002, Jean-Marie got to the 2nd turn of the Presidential elections and everybody lost their minds believing it was the second coming of a certain painter. 20 year later, some people still believe her daughter is the same and would litteraly elect someone that : - Used armed force against his own people. - Banned demonstrations. - Bypassed the republican debate by abusing a constitutional right. - Is the only european ally of the worst president-butcher of Africa. - Tried to pass a law to restrain freedom of speech online. - Passed a law against "fake-news" to control the medias. - Created sub-citizens based on their health. Rather than a woman whose father was antisemitic and racist because they still believe a 20 years old lie.
The problem is many considered nothing has changed, they changed the painting on the building but the ideas stay the same... And MLP is an absolute liar telling she's concerned with poverty, everytime they vote a low this is in favor of the capital and rich owners... Obviously RN followers are not concerned enough to just check these facts
I wouldn't bet on Edouard Philippe being on 2nd round so soon. Macron notably dislikes him and he probably wants Le Pen to win to come back appearing as a saviour in 2032. Philippe also enjoys his quietness to increase his popularity (he's not a representative anymore), but he will have to go in the arena with actual ideas in 2027. And since he has stated multiple times that he's in favour of raising retirement age to 67 instead of 64, when you see how people reacted to Macron's reform... He's like Le Pen, raising in popularity while we're far from an election, but it might not last as we'll get closer and closer to 2027. Le Pen is the same way, all polls always give her 4 or 5 points more than her actual score in the end. She's very overestimated and ends up lower because she's terrible when debating against actual contradictors. That's why Macron, who didn't want to debate anyone remotely competent and able to attack his policies during 2022's elections, did everything he could to face Le Pen who was not a threat to him in any way in that department. If we take the same polls back in 2018, the placed Melenchon at 14% when he ended up at 22% in 2022. Now he rougly stays around 18-19% in most polls, which is huge considering how polls always underestimate the left. He was given at 8 or 9% when starting his campaign in 2021 and ended up at 22%. We shouldn't underestimate the left, especially if they stay united next time.
What a load of speculations, counterfactual assertions. From which a** did you pull that Macron wants Le Pen to win and then come back in 2032? He most certainly doesn't and would prefer literally anybody else.
Melanchon and le pen are not representing themselves in 4 years … this video is all a joke they said it them selfs they are not putting them self up for election it’s going to be someone new !
The 2017 election was fascinating because the 2 big parties both were eclipsed by the far left, the center and the far right. The 2022 was boring af. But the 2027 might be very interesting, since the Historical Far left leader won't be candidate, Macron won't be able to be candidate too, and the Historical Far right leader won't be candidate. So it's gonna be a complete turn over of the political figures.
Unless Macron shows the middle finger and gives no f about rules, destroying em and aiming for a third mandate anyway. I mean, it's Macron. Dude would shit in your children's bed and still get away with it.
@@rebme7793 And will probably not win. Again. Not that people won't vote for her, but really....there are too many people who would lose many things WITHOUT Macron, and people who won't vote because "Vote isn't real!". She can't really win imo
0:58 Small point on pronunciation. Le Havre is pronounced (in French) as Le 'Avruh, with the last part said like the 'u' in Ugg. (I really thought you guys would've gotten this one, as Le Havre is directly across the Channel from England.) It's like if you caught Americans pronouncing Tijuana, Mexico (right across the border from California) as Tee-ju-wana.
It is pronounced Edwar like Edward in English but without the D at the end. 😊 Why make easy things complicated 🤣 Regarding Édouard Philippe candidature ..... if he is still alive in 2027 because he looks extremely sick.
Far to early to even try to predict the presidential future of France. This report was a waste of my time, you can do better than this as your reporting before was far more interesting and current.
I love TLDR but why would we need a vid about potential presidential candidates in an election that will happen in 4 years? That's a long time, and I'm sure there will be an avalanche of upcoming things that will change french presidential prospects.
Bellamy was the party leader at the last European elections and got 8%. It was a harbinger of what would happen to Pécresse three years later. LR is dead because it appears less moderate and serious than Macron (or Philippe), less populist than Le Pen and less security-oriented than Zemmour. Ruffin is not a party leader and has no room to the left. Mélenchon's stance is hegemonic and he is the only one able to almost unite the left despite all the problems he has that will certainly never get him elected.
French viewer here. Needless to say, many things could happen between now and 2027. Regarding the three potential designated successors to Macron within the ranks of his own clique : - Darmanin likely wouldn't sit well with center-left voters that would've otherwise voted for Macron in 2017 and 2022, being broadly seen as the most authoritarian conservative. - Philippe could score well among moderate voters, being himself perceived as a moderate (at least in appearances) On the left, things are uncertain, but definitely, it won't be someone from the formerly powerful PS, which is now basically defunct on the national level. Also, we don't know what's in store for LFI after Mélanchon. The Greens have gained ground in big cities, even running Lyon, Grenoble, Strasbourg, Tours, Poitiers and Bordeaux, but they're still struggling to overtake this level of support. Another player in 2027 could be Laurent Wauquiez as a candidate for the formerly powerful conservative LR. Who's Laurent Wauquiez, you may ask ? Basically, the French Ron DeSantis : young (he's 48, that's young by French politician standard), aggressively conservative, vocally anti-LGBT, climate change denier, will go full witch hunt against "woke", "islamo-leftism" in culture and university, all while running a populated region of the country. (It's worth noting that his party used to be the center-right 20 years ago, is now barely distinguishable from the far-right RN) Zemmour could run again, but winning or even making it to the second round is another story.
@@RadicalizedRadical good jokes, but knowing france, they definitely are going to vote for the moderate. Also, as a French guy, there is no way I'm gonna vote anything from the right-wing.
Macron's successor will dwarf both Le Pen and the next far far left leader because the french elections are based on eldery demographics and there is a generation still alive today that despises Le Pen due to decades of socialist propaganda that won't be dying yet.
Amazing how there is no solid potential candidate from the "traditional right" (LR) or the "traditional left" (PS). Imagine in the UK, if both Labour and Conservatives had been totally destroyed almost overnight. The score of their respective candidates added up to around 7% in the French presidential election of 2022.
French, Spanish, who cares? They are all foreigners. Right. 😊 PS: he didn't say it only once. If you make the same mistake consistently, _misspoke_ is not the correct word.
Making such prospects 4 years before the election doesn't make much sense. Just for the record, let's remember Macron himself emerged on the public stage less than 3 years before the election by becoming minister and became a serious presidential contender only in 2016, just 1 year before he was eventually elected.
Either you call both le pen and mélenchon far-left/right or you call them both hard-left/right. Mélenchon is not less radical than le pen. Enough of this
Bollocks, Melenchon is not far left. Far left does exist in France and it's not LFI, it's LO or NPA (for the parties). He's not even further left than Mitterand in 81 when the socialist party won the election.
@@opheliedebroise9446 if melenchon is not far left , then Le Pen isn't far right either. Her programme is closer to the 80's communist party than mussolini's
@@jagorsimp7020 That's BS, and you know it. His party is leaning more and more towards internal democracy, and mélenchon himself told that he will not run for the 2027 election and wants to the new generation of his party to take the lead. But then again, I guess it's suuuuch a dictator-to-be behaviour compared to Le Pen's ruling on her party with an iron fist and with a Napoleon's style discipline... 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ Educate yourself, for God sake.
@@Shuyin781 lol do you even follow French politics Mr teacher? Explain to me how Bompard takeover of LFIs head is a sign of a democratic movement. How he is being placed by Melenchon in a arbitrary manner and how Autain, Ruffin and Co. have reacted. How he supported his wife beater protégé, whilst the majority of his party wanted to get rid of him? Or the famous "la republique, c'est moi!" is the sign of a very Democratic and stable guy. Not even mentioning his open support of authoritarian governments in Latin America. And if I was you, I wouldn't be so sure he will not run in 2027. The guy is a megalomaniac
I do not like Macron, but he is a pragmatist, and right now, France needs pragmatists. People who are willing to face up to the realities of the world and make difficult decisions. Macron will not be re-elected since he is serving his second, and therefore final, term, but I suspect his replacement will be a man or woman who (1) staunchly supports the EU (so bye bye Melenchon and Le Pen), (2) has a vision to lead France, and indeed Europe, towards greater military and energy independence, and (3) make difficult but necessary decisions to keep France economically viable. Melenchon and Le Pen fail miserably on all fronts.
Let's hope you're right, but the way the Front National keeps getting better results with each election doesn't make me optimistic. If they lose in 2027 it will probably be by a very small margin.
@@luernios9075 The Front National has pretty much reached its full potential. 55% of the French population will never vote for it. Le Pen will usually be one of the two finalist because she will garner more votes in the primaries, but she will not be elected in the national election. The next president will either be Mélenchon (although his anti-EU stance sits ill with a majority of French citizens) or the leader of a centrist party similar to Macron. Most French citizens are liberal at the core. They cannot bring themselves to vote for a nationalist, conservative candidate.
@@alextabet9247 In the 2022 election polls Mélanchon always scored lower than Marine Lepen in a face-off against Macron and I believe he was also predicted to lose in a Lepen - Mélanchon face-off, so him or another far left candidate becoming the next president seems unlikely to me, but you never know.
She's technically far right on the current political spectrum. Of course it doesn't mean she has anything in common with the Italian or German far-right of the 1930s, but that's the only thing medias and leftists can bring to discredit her. Also this "far-right, right, left, far-left" thing is totally outdated. For exemple when it comes to economics, Macron is "right-wing" (in fact he is the most right-wing candidate) and Le Pen "left-wing".
You missed a single probability in this list : although it ended quite low in the last presidential election, but still higher than the traditional right and left parties, Zemmour's Reconquest brand new party shouldn't be underestimated as a future force to be reckoned with...
France should adopt a Dutch style electoral parliamentary system. 4 year election terms and that's it. Maybe a 2-3% threshold with transferable vote just so that the old guard cant complain that it will be ungovernable.
Also a major question is: does the left stay unified. A broad coalition of often rivals came together to try and breathe life into the dying left in france. And while the results look impressive for a party, its less so for an alliance. The unified left came in their behind a Reagan esque neoliberal and a right wing le pen. Thats a recipie for disaster if infighting breaks up that coalition. Plus the unions have, despite their best efforts, failed to defeat the pension reforms. As they have been in decline for a decade or longer was this a final grasp for the french unions? And what will that in turn mean for the lefts unity and political relevence.
Quite an accurate overview of things. One thing made me laugh a lot: Ben, bless you, it is 'Édouard Philippe' (pronounced as 'Edward', not 'Eduardo', which makes him sound like a Latino drag queen or builder! 😸)
It’s not very accurate because melenchon and le pen are not representing themselves in 4 years time it will be someone else from there party’s ! Like a Ruffin or a bandella!
What’s with “Western” countries having a generational problem with objectively good leaders? Whether they’re left wing or right, the quality has declined, and populists are gaining control, and rather fixing things that are obviously broken, you see them barely touching issues, and focusing on the next election
This is an excellent question. As a Westerner I think you’ve hit one reason why. I also think that it has to do with the way Democracy and Republics work. I don’t know but it’s just really hard to develop political leaders in a country where the leadership is elected. Not that electing leadership is bad, but man the country really suffers when it elects people that don’t know what they are doing. Campaigning is more like selling yourself as a problem solver, which is something that the people want to hear. I think something that is us regular folk don’t want to hear is that the stability and efficiency of our governments depend on us too and that we can be at fault because of our lack of caution and vigilance. People get complacent and just start voting for anyone who promises them everything. Idk man.
@@saintyveslaurent It's not hard to develop political leaders in Democracies by default, a big problem with many Western Democracies is that the ranks of Politicians are all people who are generally quite old, how often do you look at a sitting parliament or senate and see a sea of old men past their 50th? Having such an entrenched political elite stifles any chance younger people have for getting into the political arena and can result in the incumbents molding the system to ensure they keep their well paid government jobs all the way until they retire, or die. End result is a bunch of people coasting on their laurels clinging to ideologies and ideas that are painfully out of date.
@@S3Cs4uN8 I don’t think being old is the problem. There is such as thing as too old, I will agree with you there. I’m a Traditionalist so I guess I’m one of those people who hold on to politically outdated ideas 😭, but I guess where I was trying to get at is that a democracy requires a lot of cooperation and understanding which I am all for, but what is needed for that is effective and experienced leadership. Youth doesn’t always make right and it is the responsibility of the Old to guide the youth and pass on the mantle which the old isn’t doing anymore. Maybe politics needs to be an actual profession, like being a doctor or a lawyer. I mean Donald Trump instantly become President with no previous political or military experience was wild. There definitely needs to be some levels to it. Experience won’t always guarantee that someone will be great but it’s so much better than having someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing. When the chips are down experience always wins.
@@S3Cs4uN8 Like bro would you trust a med student to diagnose some serious condition you have or would you trust an experienced physician with a decade of experience? I’m not saying we shouldn’t criticize our elders and not hold them accountable, but I think we should put more trust in them to do their job because it’s all we can do. Dude I’m like 20 years old I can’t even run my own life properly 😭. I’m grateful for our democracy but I think we need to start being real with ourselves that realize that democracy isn’t the only system of government that can work well. I think we get too caught up on ideals and utopias, but it’s time for us to accept that this world isn’t meant to be perfect and that we need to focus on doing the best we can. Once we do that I feel like our world will be a whole lot better.
@@GrosPointRouge, in today's France, where both the far-right and -left are strong, I consider both the centre-right and centre-left to be France's political centre. Allthough, there is no doubt about that Macron's political movement has to be considered as centre-right.
Yes, I like neither of them but they both seem equally radical in their own ways, so I'm always wondering why the media make this distinction and whether it's really justified.
The main left political force in France is not far left, actually. We have far left parties (NPA, LO) but they are not in the left alliance. The NUPES (left alliance) is not anti-capitalist. It is quite radical compared to the traditional french left wing party though (the PS, center left) so I can understand the "hard left" qualification.
@@louisg6296 Is LFI far left, or just hard left, or radical left? I don't know. Maybe it doesn't matter that much. What seems important to me, however, is to be consistent, so if we decide to call the RN far right but not call LFI far left, that implies that the RN is further from the center than LFI is, and I'd like to know who decides this and on which criteria.
I have a definition of right and left, far right and far left that can explain that Basically this definition of the political spectrum doesn't depends on the ideas (because ideas can change according to the changes in the society) but on a chronological point of view according to a certain place (and it always works) The right is basically the status quo, the ones who doesn't want anything to change in the society (so basically right now the ones who supports macron are according to this definition from the right) and of course (because this definition doesn't depends on ideas but on places and time) the ones supporting the communist party in China are right now from the right wing because they defend the status quo now what is far right? they are the one searching answers to the current problems by looking into the past (that's how we can group together royalists and zemmourists in France for exemple even though they don't share a whole lot in common), just to give an example Zemmour took inspiration from the General de Gaulle (in the form) during the last presidential election because he is nostalgic of a france of the past where there was less sub european immigration, where there was less muslims, etc. and what is the left? the left want to search new solutions to the problems faced by society basically (that's how a green party and a marxist party can both be at the left even though they don't share everything in common) so basically: the far right wants the society to go backward the right wants the society to stay as it is the left wants the society to progress forward what us far left? well they don't really exist with this definition, what is farer at the left is what is more against the current system and more for something new, that's why anarchists and communists are more at the left than social democrats for exemple I myself call far-left the ones who want to change the society at its core, wanting a non capitalist society for the current state of France for exemple So following these definition is LePen from the far right? Yes she is because she is against the status quo but as well as against social progress, she wants a france of the past, more nationalistic, with less strangers, with more regulations of the borders, etc. she is from the far right now is Melenchon from the far-left? no he is not because he doesn't want to change the current society at its core, he just wants to reform it, he is a social democrat so he is not from the far left
Three major pieces of information are missing: The French left has been united under the "NUPES" since the legislative elections in 2022. So it's very possible that a candidate wouldn't from Melenchon's party. François Ruffin isn't from his party. He's associated with them, but is an independant (like Bernie Sanders not being a democrat in the US). And most importantly: Melenchon explicitely said multiple times that he wouldn't be candidate in 2027. So your entire point of the video where he's a candidate is just not valid. I don't know why it's not in your video.
@@parisgaming2345 Thx, but I know that already. The problem is that it's closer to the previous election than the next, so why "predict" what's next so early.
Apparently, according to some people, Castex (the previous prime minister) would also run for the elections. Because when people ask Emmanuel Macron "who would be your ideal successor ?" his description reminds the one of Castex. But nowadays Castex is at the head of the RATP and seems to be indifferent.
Agree ! Under such a centralized regime, both will find no constitutional opposition to stop their radical policies, leading the country to even more violence. That regime was designed for a temperate character, able to build a consensus. Chirac was probably the very last President to fulfill that requirements. (That's why he is often refereed as the "lazy king")
@@louisg6296his policy seems quite good (and indeed standard for a European social democrat) until he starts talking about EU and NATO. Especially given how much Europe has been united in the aftermath of Russian aggression in Ukraine, his ideas are so fucking out of place.
The 2 party system in the US is supposed to be basic left and basic right, where each side contains the full spectrum of affiliations and tendencies in each end. The left is stuck with the communists and the right is stuck with the fascists but they're the minorities way out on the far edges. So the 2 parties contain each sub party, they're like a sum, and we choose candidates who most represent certain places on the spectrum so they can evoke that in government. The 2 parties are like combined sums of all parties. If you think of it, any theoretical party will either be right or left of center. On a long enough time line, as voting and elections go, they eventually consolidate. I am most interested in electing people who do what's right and the best possible thing that can be done with as much wisdom as can be applied. Today that to me has been like 1 notch center right. When I say that, most people who read this will know almost exactly what that means, it has certain features, and the further out from center you go the more extreme it is. I hope France chooses well. As a man of history I know they're a huge part of what made the US even exist at all so I like seeing them do well. Cheers.
She won’t be elected. But I’m curious to know the reason which push you to a polexit as Poland is probably the country which benefited the most of the European Union during the last 20 years
I am French from the countryside and i can tell you, people don't want her THAT MUCH but nowadays, are willing to vote for her, or even Dark Vador if he were to enter the fray, to NOT have Macron or any of his group again.
I am proud to have had the opportunity to experience the French countryside and its smart, thoughtful, honest and hardworking people, and what you say about them sounds to me at least dissonant and borderline slanderous! One hopes that the smart citizens of rural France will not vote to return to the Old Regime's oppression! What's behind Le Pen is very dark indeed, a bunch of monarchists, outright Putino-fascists, and Vichy France holdouts!
@@DanielLLevy "French countryside". heheh. Yeah right. Did you also experience the daily life of the smart, thoughtful, honest and hardworking workers, farmers, nurses and the myriad of other of those great people barely getting by with what they earn because they're "nothing"? Your "opportunity" is unlikely to have lasted as long as what i see on a daily basis, in factories, in hospitals, during memorials and events, or any other times. Inevitably, people talk about their life. About their family. Their situation. The feeling that things are being worse and worse. The fact that politics, especially traditionnal ones (the Right: LR, the Left: PS-PC-EELV, and the Center: LREM) are full of criminal and immoral people makes them mad. The fact that the far-left (LFI) is made of unskilled agitators. Many of em thought that Le Pen wasn't fit to be anything else than the leader of the far-right wing of the political picture. Now? To them, she the "lesser evil". The one with potential scary ideas and allies, but had yet to do ANYTHING bad and harming while Macron IS doing bad things and harming the common people with a smile and the middle finger raised. The "smart people" of rural France hardly experienced anything like their ancestors. The horrors of what far-right can bring is far from them, and they will no longer think of the future if they already want to shoot nukes at the present. I could go even further if i had the patience, but at this point, if you don't understand that fast glances at the people's smiling faces in the streets or in their shops won't give you a solid idea of what they want, what they think and what they fear, whatever i'll bother to write won't matter anyway.
Like somebody who things you have to reverse pension age and let the French economy collaps in a few years? That’s Left for you? What does it mean anyway?
Agreed. Conservative governments screwed everyone over (including themselves) by acting so appallingly people end up having to vote in a half-assed 'liberal'
My country is dying, the vote can maybe change something but we have to act in the local scale. Our tradition and our people are disapearing. Save the eternal France. Vive la France et vive le Roi.
Not Edouardo Philippe, EDOUARD. There is no O at the end... And good luck to find out who will be in last draw (out of 14 potential candidates - Real democracy!)!
How to make an empty video for views : Ask a question about politics that will happen in 4 years which is very long in political time. Answer by wait and see.
I am french and let me tell you : our country is VERY divided.
On one hand, as you said, there is the far left, then the far right, then Macron.
But, many less polarized people struggle to find good representation : many voted for Macron as the only option, socialists voted for Melanchon or the green party (neither truly hold the same exact values as the Parti Socialiste used too).
Meanwhile on the right, your choice is either Lepen (who also strays further and further from the traditional ideas) or candidates laking any charisma (Valérie Pécresse).
So, here we have a huge gap comprised of center left/center right without any real effective representation, if we exclude Macron (who even among his followers, is not really appreciated anymore to say the least).
and that's how we end up with 26% of abstention even during the first tour of the presidential elections.
This is a disaster : we are heading more and more towards a two party system like the US.
This is shame considering the plurality of opinions in France.
Go far left. Mix things up a bit, expand workers rights and protections!
@@pacotaco1246 far-left is seven different kinds of stupid if you flip s*** at the very mentioning of the far-right you should have the same reaction to the far left
@@pacotaco1246 The far left is the problem.
@@pacotaco1246 Feel like the whole "far left" is made up by right wingers to say "look they are extreme too!". For i have no idea wtf far left is, people who wants free education, healtcare, better worker right, pro immegration?
@@pauljohnson1664 not really in France they been successful in the past. But wouldn't presume you to know about french parties history.
Four years from now? A ton of things can happen till then, this is super speculative.
The end of a war, the start of another, changing economics and trade ties, a likely recession and the ability for any of these leaders to mess somehing up.
This video was just made because the current president has done some unpopular things so some people would prefer another. Its practically click bait
see, that was also said in the video. For now this is just a perspective of who are the potential candidates for 2027.
Perhaps not everyone has such short memories.
Why are you so certain that these revolts occurring today will be forgotten tomorrow?
I would wager that YOU are being too speculative.
@@Doyourbest4245 YOUR comment is super speculative since you read a perfectly understandable sentence, and gave it a wild interpretation
It's the Dunning Kruger Channel.
Please guys, it's in four years
It must be a slow news day
Still, a lot of hopeful far-righters everywhere consider a Lepen victory a done deal for some reason (and of course according to them this would lead to the death of the EU, again), so I guess it`s not so bad to kind of set things straight.
the Primaries are in 3 years, and in France they have elections every 5 years
Perhaps not everyone has such short memories.
Why are you so certain that these revolts occurring today will be forgotten tomorrow?
I would wager that YOU are being too speculative.
Yes, but I bet that many French people wish it were next month, just to have someone else as soon as possible...
If Ruffin wins he would be the third left wing president called Francois 😂
good sign. maybe it is the right way to go ...
Second one. Hollande was no left-winger.
Hollande was right wing.
Even though he presented himself as being on the left with a historically left-wing party, his party had gradually drifted to the right since 1983 and he himself was on the right of this party. He led a policy very close to that of Macron, Macron who was also his adviser and then Minister of the Economy, so clearly a right-wing policy at the service of the richest.
Mitterand was a collaborationist
Hollande seems to be a fake socialist
Wow
I also like that now, when a commentator mentions a politician's age, they use stock photos of.. Biden ! 😂
He's become a meme at this point, poor guy.
Ah yes, the famous Eduoardo Filipe mayor of Le Havrey XD
as long as it isn´t Manuel Valls mayor of Barcelona ...
Lay Havray.
The biggest problem in France is that most people don't vote anymore for the candidate they really support, but for the candidate which is the most likely able to beat the one they cannot support at all...
And it's quite ironic that 20 years ago, French people voted the "moderate" candidate to block the far-right candidate ; whereas nowadays, many people would vote the far-right to block the "moderate" candidate... sincerely, in 2022, how many people voted Macron just to eliminate Le Pen, and vice versa ? It's really ridiculous.
I think that France urgently needs new institutions and a big reform to unite people instead of dividing them.
The Fifth Republic shows more and more its limits and inadequation with the new political landscape, reducing voters' trust, increasing abstention and extreme behaviors, and the last months events clearly show that it's not possible anymore to give so much power to a President who doesn't have a clear majority... we are not anymore in a context of WWII sequel when it was necessary. But I'm afraid that a very few politicians would have the guts to call this system into question...
That's what polarization does, it turns each and every policy position into a pass/fail exercise, and no one can pass them all for more than a handful of the electorate. When it becomes "you must match code 345457224545898987583 or you have at least one position I refuse to support, no one's going to match that code. So you just end up going "well, they match eleven digits, I suppose I'll settle" that naturally leads to disappointment.
Bullshit. The right wing vote consistently for the candidate they really support. That does not make them more astute or savvy voters. Many do so by blind loyalty to the Le Pen family name. The real problem is candidates like Macron who have tried to game the system and rule by being the least hated. They are the true demagogues and sleazes who destroy confidence in the institutilns, in political parties, in democracy. If like me you have voted Macron but find his policies disgusting - it is not your fault - just a trick he played on us.
Voting for the moderate candidate is not always the best course of action - it's just the lazy choice of the uninformed voters.
Also the 5th republic does not give this much power to the executive. It is the Macron executive that has grabbed for this kind of power.
None of the successors to Macron is to his left and none supports any political reforms. So if you want more 49.3 politics, vote for them : they will deliver you into the hands of the right wing in less than 10 years from now.
Yes, I think you're quite right. Here's my hot take on the current French institutions of the 5th Republic : The 5th Republic nowadays is in a similar spot as was the USSR 40 years ago. Let me explain:
- Both cases involve a system emerging 60 years in the past, in a tough context for the country (Russian revolution and civil war vs. Algeria war and threat of coup by military officials)
- Both regimes were founded around an ideology strongly associated with one charismatic leader (Communism/Marxism with Lenin and later Stalin vs. Gaullism with Charles de Gaulle), with personality cults revolving around them (the USSR imposed personality cult of Lenin and Stalin on the citizens vs. Charles de Gaulle already had it, being basically worshipped like a god by many French people 60 years ago, and still today), which ensuing leaders are explicitly or implicitly expected to follow in the footsteps.
- At this point in time, this regime is showing signs of weaknesses (the USSR of the 1980s was chronically corrupt and dysfunctional on every level, as shown by a report from KGB and then communist party leader Iuri Andropov, not to mention the Afghan quagmire vs. Macron provoking massive unrest and resentment in the population by, among other things, abusing the institutions to pass an unpopular law).
Le mieux Marine le Pen que ça vous plaise ou non !
@@christianterraes8334 Waouh, quelle argumentation, je ne peux qu'y adhérer instantanément.
De toute façon, que je supporte Le Pen, ou Macron, ou ni l'un ni l'autre, ça n'enlève absolument rien au problème de base : l'abstention progresse de plus en plus, aucun candidat ne dépasse la barre des 30% au premier tour, beaucoup de Français ne se sentent plus représentés car les institutions donnent trop de pouvoir à la majorité présidentielle et pas assez à l'opposition ; bref, la crise démocratique va continuer. Et ce n'est pas juste un changement de président qui va la résoudre d'un seul coup, mais toute une réforme des institutions à mener.
Soit dit en passant, les extrêmes ne parviennent pas toujours à s'installer de façon durable, cf. Trump et Bolsonaro qui n'ont effectué qu'un seul mandat. Comme quoi, même si c'est une solution alléchante au premier abord, ce n'est pas pour autant garanti qu'elle va solutionner la crise de façon pérenne.
Surprised to see there is no word on the NUPES, the alliance uniting effectively all left-wing parties. "France Unbowed", while being the strongest element of this alliance to this day, is not alone and the chance of success the left will have in 2027 will likely depend on the stability of the alliance and the ability to coordinate and agree on a single candidate in order to avoid splitting the vote like in 2022.
Yeah it's weird not to talk about the NUPES alliance especially since it's the first time in 25 years that the left united. But it has many challenges internally and we'll see what they do for the 2024 European elections
lets be real NUPES doesn't stand a chance, it is a mismash of the left from the far to the center all the way to the greens. It does not have any real ideology and raison d'être except "not being the right", which isn't enough and is already filled by Macron and I can't see them uniting for real. All the while Lepen has pretty much a monopoly on the right with only center right Les republicains and far far right Zemmours party that are pretty much minorities.
NUPES has proven itself kind of disunited. And Mélanchon is insane.
If the left wants to win, they need someone less polirazing than Mélanchon.
All European left wing parties are bound to divide or secede over some petty shit. That’s why no one talks about left wing alliances.
Unfortunately, left-wing parties are too proud to ally themselves for a presidential polling...
They could have a chance in 2022 with an independent vote destined to left-wing voters to select a single candidate for left-wing parties, but idid worse than better. Not only none of the left-wing candidates withdraw, but we almost had one more (Christine Taubira), which luckily withdrawed at last minute because she didn't have enough sponsorships to stand. It clearly shows that even with an opportunity to be more unite, they managed to be more divided... it's really hopeless.
Nonetheless, they (after all !) united as NUPES for legislative polling... but even in this context, they remain quite divided, and the other parties don't really like the idea to be Mélenchon's sidekicks.
So unless it evolves during the next four years, I'm afraid they will likely do the same mistake they did in 2022... and with all the respect, if opponent parties in Turkey understood that uniting is the key to overthrow the actual president, it would be a shame for French parties not to understand that...
We're in the weimar moment again not just in europe but globally and people have no fkn idea
I'd say many are aware.
*sigh* Well at least, there's no more need for invasion between european nations, we'll all be saved or fucked deeply at the same moment for the same reasons by the same people ....
A small comment. 06:48 "Macron having never held elected office emerged" - this statement is technically correct. However, this should be nuanced. It doesn't mean that Macron was unknown to the general public and emerged from anonymity (the anti-establishment theory of new candidates). On the contrary, he is an elitist, Science Po/ENArque - meaning he always had ambitions of the highest order, it's like how in the UK you have Eton alumni having a guaranteed government career. He was a member of the cabinet of Manuel Valls (2014-2016) and also worked personally with Francois Hollande (2012-2014) as assistant secretary to the Presidency (some say he was personally ushered/mentored by Hollande). In any case, he was never seen as anti-establishment, he tried to be seen as "new" but this didn't work. I think this might be the difference between the Anglo-Saxon and Continental views on office, particularly on elected office. To be noted that in France, elected office is not as significative as in the UK for example, with some exceptions (the mayoral elections in big cities) the public's disinterest for parliamentary elections (national and european) are quite significant in the past 10 years.
The comparision between Eton and ENA is not relevant. Eton is a private school for boys only, until the age of 18. The tuition fee is £46 K per year, and the selection is based on revenue and who you parents are.
ENA's selection is based on academic skills, with one of the most compettive test there is.
It's for students (20 y.o. +), men and women.
The fee is much lower than any British university.
So ENA can be compared to Oxford and Cambridge, both universities do provide a number of elite members, but Eton is a totally different story.
@@camillecotillard8706 I beg to differ. It's still an elitist institution. In France, if you don't have the money to go at prep schools you don't have a chance of getting into ENA (or SciencesPo). Yes, you have scholarships and other supportive financial instruments, but all and all, it doesn't change the principal elitist characteristic of those types of establishments.
@@lixav1 - of course ENA, Polytechnique, HEC, ESSEC is where the French leaders are made, whether it's for business, politics or engineering. It's "la crême de la crême". Just like Oxford, Cambridge, or the IVY league in the US. But again Eton is on different world, it's an aristocratic institution that selects people on money and background, not on academic skills. Money can buy you Eton, but it can't buy you ESSEC, Médecine or Normal Sup. Different take on "élite".
@@camillecotillard8706 Yes but I gave that example to emphasise the "elitist" characteristic of two very different systems (French and UK), Eton is for the "regular" UK learning institutions like ENA/ScPo is for their "regular" French counterparts. I agree that they are different types of elitism but I never said they were 1:1 copies of each other.
@@lixav1 - I get your point, and I agree that at the end of the day Macron is the "product of an elite factory".
One comment I would add, is that Eton being so expensive, it tends to create "Conservatives" leader only. You can't be a credible Labour leader if you went to Eton. ENA on the other hand creates both left wing and right wing politicians.
Anyway, nice discussing with you :)
Politics in France are more about taking stances than bringing actual solutions. The problem is that no party wants to compromise on anything.
The left is refusing to discuss anything on security matters and immigration, while the right and far right are linking all problems to these two subjects.
On the opposite, no party wants to work on complex subjects, like health (hospital, local doctors, ...) or housing, because you cannot solve these problems by communicating on a series of measures the government would implement.
Even the electorate of the parties are not very keen to compromise :
LFI (far left) focuses on young students and people living in poor districts of the big cities, who have a very intense conception of far left policies
Ecologic party relies on educated and wealthy urban who tends to have a very idealistic and far from practice idea of Ecology
LREM (Macron's party) relies on retired or wealthy voters who are mostly liberals (economically speaking) and conservative
RN (far right) electorate basis relies mostly on racist, poor and lower middle classe voters, in small to medium cities where unemployment is very high
More and more, RN is attracting voters angry at LREM for its liberal laws, and at the far left for its electorate
I am afraid communication is broken between the parties and the people for theses stances, and no compromises can be found
Agreed
the only thing we're sure about 2027 is that we're sure of nothing
Ah yes, the very French name Eduardo, and the very French town of Le Havray
TLDR is usually good with pronunciation but that was really bad. Lol
Well as a French I can assure you that they always struggled with french pronunciation, although this video takes the cake 😂
@@FoxTrotteur ik . I am French but I also know that it is difficult for people to pronounce foreign names and words. For instance, for the war in Ukraine they’ve improved greatly on their pronunciation
Well, Édouard should be quite easy to pronounce by just cutting the final "d" of Edward... 💁♂️
As a french, i can tell you our people have no lesson to give to any foreigner regarding accents, words and speech.
French are always correcting their language. Don't bother the other comments about the pronunciation. I'm really grateful you are talking about my country ❤
A reminder to all the non-EU watchers - saying that France has only had 2 left-of-center presidents since the founding of the republic does not mean what it would mean across the pond; Europe in general is far more left-wing than the US or Canada in general, thus our "center" is where most other countries moderate left would be.
Really ? Macron even coming from teh socialist party is as right and liberal as it can be. he just knows that he cannot show it really and has to hide it. but is plan is absolutely clear and his allegance is obvious even if hidden.
What’s more, Gaullism was culturally conservative, but quite dirigiste on the economy.
Canada is left wing country.
And let's not forget about Chaban's social policies. Back then, De Gaulle's conservatism and Chaban's socialism were well balanced and way more common people oriented in their policies than "real socialists" ever were under Mitterand.
@@padriandusk7107 The Communist leader, Georges Marchais, was strongly anti-immigration, believing it a capitalist plot to destroy working-class solidarity. In 2023 parlance, he was a “Far Right” Communist.
Probably a few month before the 2027 elections:
*Philippe:* _Sorry I'm late, President. Good polling institutes are so hard to come by this days. So, everything ready to our next election?_
*Macron:* _There is a change of plan, Edouard._
*Philippe:* _What?_
*Macron:* _I decided to lead the fleet of attention to Europe... alone. You will remain here, in France._
*Philippe:* _But, I thought we would do it together!_
*Macron:* _My decision is final._
*Philippe:* _You, you can't treat me like this. You can't treat me like Valls._
*Macron:* _Edouard, silent yourself._
*Philippe:* _But it was my idea to get the leadership of Europe. I deserve to be by your side!_
*Macron:* _Edouard! Listen to me, I need you here to watch over the homeland. It is a very important job that I can only entrust to you._
*Philippe:* _Really?_
*Macron:* _And for your loyalty, I declare you the new President._
*Philippe:* _President Philippe? It does seem appropriate, but what about you?_
*Macron:* _President Macron is no more. Just as the world will be reborn in Nuclear Energy, I will be reborn the prime ruler of Europe. From this moment on, I will be known as the King In Europe!_
(A display of fireworks is happening, while Macron is heading to his personal airplane)
Excellent Avatar TLA reference.
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
My french friends used to boast of the plurality of french parties compared to the US.
But they never vote and out of the dozens of political parties there are none seem to represent them or interest them.
Last election cycle felt like American politics without the electoral college (which is a bit scary considering it means that a significant portion of the popular vote will swing far right).
But it's understandable after seeing Macron's governance.
It's just sad that at the end all the french had was either macron or la pen.
Just like another Joe Biden vs Trump. 🤢🤮
Macron is quite further right than Biden
@@edsiles4297 true...
how is the population switching far right scary ?
You overlooked one of the most likely way out.
Adopting proportional representation.
The left bloc is officially for it, Marine le Pen is officially for it, half of the Macron coalition is officially for it and it now seems they would also save their ass by switching to proportional representation: Macron’s MPs would keep seats and it will prevent the left bloc or Marine le Pen’s party to get a majority of seats in Parliament.
The direct consequence of this would be to strongly diminish the power of the President, whose party would not be able to hold a majority of seats in Parliament.
France’s balance of power would evolve towards that of Finland, Poland or Portugal, so the stakes would be deeply reshuffled, with the parliament election becoming the central event of French political life, as they used to be in France and are anywhere else in the EU.
Everyone is strongly in favor of a parliamentary system with a proportional representation until the presidential election comes up and the party leaders figure out that it would strongly reduce their room for manoeuvre once elected.
@@alexism.7441 Today the situation in France is different: Marine le Pen will probably strongly benefit from the current voting system at the next parliamentary elections, while Macron’s party could simply be obliterated by it and fully disappear. Moreover for the first time in the history of France there are three “party coalitions” with none that can get a majority, and under the logics of the two rounds system they are better off out of a coalition. Hence the incentives are completely different than what they usually are. The situation actually looks like the party balance in the Netherlands, Denmark or Luxembourg when they introduced proportional representation in 1917-1919.
It is similar to the House of Commons in 1923, when no party had a clear majority with a growing Labour, and at the 1924 election Labour finally replaced the Liberals as the main opponent of the Conservatives. Somehow at the time the Liberals were not able to implement proportional when they were still the main party, they did not feel the momentum, did not reform the voting system and almost disappeared. The same could happen and France could come back to a two party system with on the right a coalition based around Marine le Pen, but I doubt it. The Macron coalition implementing some sort of proportional representation is a more likely outcome. Proportional representation is not the experimental voting system it was in 1923.
Thing is the downside is non existent, FPTP has the same downside it's just harder to see
@@RalfAnodin
Yes, I do agree, and Macron has common sense IMO.
@@josipag2185 I too believe that Macron does have common sense, which also explains why he is deeply dangerous for France’s social fabric: he is the least representative president in term of electoral support and yet enjoys wide powers, he knows that he will quit politics at the end of his mandate and therefore “does not have anything to lose” just as much as many of the MPs that support him who equally believe that “after Macron their party will disappear” and are preparing their return to business life instead of being popular to be elected again. Nobody knows what will follow but they are pushing any policy they can without making any compromises, regardless of what the electorate wants.
“since Napoleon” *u guys went there! 😂 *with that image on background at same time 🤣
Let us hope we as a global society can reduce the partisanship of our nations in a way that does not negatively impact the effectiveness of our governents. Patisan governments as in the US are not helpful and only sow the seeds of discontent as I am afraid Le Pen will do. A central government that shares and balances the concerns and views of all people is the democratic (and best) way to achieve both social and economic progress.
"Partisan government" just means a government with 2 or more parties. Political parties that represent different bodies of the electorate are a vital part of democracy. The problem comes from party inefficiency, corruption, or unsustainable polarization.
BTW, centrists aren't always perfect for democracy too. They can be either too much on the fence or too controlling. Ie: Macron is a centrist, but the type everyone hates. Furthermore, his actions recently have legitimately been negative to democracy, the rule of law, & cooperation.
@@kingace6186 Very good points .. very good indeed ..
LePen will sow the seeds of discontent? didn't Macron push through a policy without it being voted on, didn't Macron appease Xi to such an extent that the Chinese Ambassador to France vented his true feelings about Ex Soviet States, isn't Macron making a play for head of EU without the authority, and making his own overseas policy in direct conflict to Baltic and Nordic States security concerns!?!
Good graphics all around! 👍
You guys aren't even close. It's gonna be me.
Don"t you have anybody who can help you with your pronunciation of French names?
Yes Nigel Farage, his best bit of advice is "if they don't understand, just shout louder"!?!
Marine le Pen is now thr favourite.
Ces recommandations sont intriguantes x)
No suprise its gonna be Zinedine Zidane
Why Zidane ? He haven't ant political expérience ?
What if the next president of france is Jean-Christophe napoleon
Is he related to the Bonaparte family (dynasty)
In that case Europe should start worrying
@@Azmodaeus49 yes he is Napoleon great-great-great-grand nephew
@@marcobisi7768 absolutely
What a based scenario if that happened
It is a good summary but there are two likely candidates Laurent Wauquiez and Eric Ciotti representing "Les républicains" There the remaining of the former president Nicolas Sarkozy's party. And after this term their audience that was absorbed by Macron might come back as a mild opponent.
Pfffrt. Those two are as likely to win as Pecresse.
@@padriandusk7107 they had the same odds last election, that is true but the circumstances will not be the same and the center/center right of macron might loose some voter that goes back to the Republican.
@@remiplainard5968 Problem is, Macron's group is made of everyone that was possibly able to win anything in both the right, the center and the left. Those left behind only won local elections due to loyalty from voters and outright disapprobation of the mess of a group full of opportunists Macron created.
Add to this that most heavyweights in the Republican aren't well liked for those who don't vote for the right....and you get only weak pretenders like Pecresse, who should have had at least 10% votes, but was so lame she didn't even get 5%.
The only members of LR might've accepted to support and people outside of the right side of politics could've voted for in 2027 were Francois Baroin or Aurelien Pradié.
The first one is a solid, well known and liked Chiraquist and have yet to be sent to trials for illegal things and stuff, making him one of the very few of the Repulican with influence to be morally correct. At least, for most people. Problem is, he clearly stated he didn't want to be President or anything of the sort. Probably out of fear of a possible loss that would've destroyed his popularity....or a win that would've put too much light in shadows never uncovered yet.
The second one is seen as a young and promising man, trying to bring more social politics and progress and less prone to blame it all on immigration, islam and so on.
Problem is, the heavyweighters of the Republicans don't like him for both his personality and ideas and banished him., and people aren't likely to vote for someone like him: right voters will listen to instructions to not make him a candidate, and even if he somehow managed to be so, left voters would have little reason to vote for someone who has yet to show them anything social.
The only one who is likely to win is the one who will end up against Le Pen or her sucesssor. And even this, nowadays, is less sure with each passing day....
@@remiplainard5968 The republicans gave their ass to Macron during the retirement reform. They clearly said in the parliament that they are going to back Macron's politics from now on. People will not vote for Macron's dog.
Great video!
Just so we're all clear.
If you were to organise a Lepen vs Folding Chair election : the chair would win.
@Tigran-Khan Abazyan it isn't low properly speaking.
However, France polling system is made as, if your candidates are from a right wing party or an ultra left one, unless you have 50+% of popularity, you basically already lost, hence my comment. That's what is called "le barrage républicain" and it has been more a norm than an exception since the 90's.
@tigran-khanabazyan I don't know if you know anything about french politics, but you must understand that Marine Le Pen is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who created the Front National and is a far right politician.
In 2002, Jean-Marie got to the 2nd turn of the Presidential elections and everybody lost their minds believing it was the second coming of a certain painter.
20 year later, some people still believe her daughter is the same and would litteraly elect someone that :
- Used armed force against his own people.
- Banned demonstrations.
- Bypassed the republican debate by abusing a constitutional right.
- Is the only european ally of the worst president-butcher of Africa.
- Tried to pass a law to restrain freedom of speech online.
- Passed a law against "fake-news" to control the medias.
- Created sub-citizens based on their health.
Rather than a woman whose father was antisemitic and racist because they still believe a 20 years old lie.
@@pseud026this sounds insanely un democratic and rigged system lol
The problem is many considered nothing has changed, they changed the painting on the building but the ideas stay the same... And MLP is an absolute liar telling she's concerned with poverty, everytime they vote a low this is in favor of the capital and rich owners... Obviously RN followers are not concerned enough to just check these facts
Because xenophobia or ignorance is still the main reason of RN success
Not really relevant in this particular video, but TLDR claiming they are non-partisan and unbiased will never fail to get a chuckle out of me.
u fasc bro?
I wouldn't bet on Edouard Philippe being on 2nd round so soon. Macron notably dislikes him and he probably wants Le Pen to win to come back appearing as a saviour in 2032. Philippe also enjoys his quietness to increase his popularity (he's not a representative anymore), but he will have to go in the arena with actual ideas in 2027. And since he has stated multiple times that he's in favour of raising retirement age to 67 instead of 64, when you see how people reacted to Macron's reform...
He's like Le Pen, raising in popularity while we're far from an election, but it might not last as we'll get closer and closer to 2027. Le Pen is the same way, all polls always give her 4 or 5 points more than her actual score in the end. She's very overestimated and ends up lower because she's terrible when debating against actual contradictors. That's why Macron, who didn't want to debate anyone remotely competent and able to attack his policies during 2022's elections, did everything he could to face Le Pen who was not a threat to him in any way in that department.
If we take the same polls back in 2018, the placed Melenchon at 14% when he ended up at 22% in 2022. Now he rougly stays around 18-19% in most polls, which is huge considering how polls always underestimate the left. He was given at 8 or 9% when starting his campaign in 2021 and ended up at 22%. We shouldn't underestimate the left, especially if they stay united next time.
What a load of speculations, counterfactual assertions. From which a** did you pull that Macron wants Le Pen to win and then come back in 2032? He most certainly doesn't and would prefer literally anybody else.
Melanchon and le pen are not representing themselves in 4 years … this video is all a joke they said it them selfs they are not putting them self up for election it’s going to be someone new !
Problem is he is also a Capitalist if his time in office before Macron is reflective of his leaning.
7:30 It's always been Romania.
The 2017 election was fascinating because the 2 big parties both were eclipsed by the far left, the center and the far right.
The 2022 was boring af.
But the 2027 might be very interesting, since the Historical Far left leader won't be candidate, Macron won't be able to be candidate too, and the Historical Far right leader won't be candidate.
So it's gonna be a complete turn over of the political figures.
Unless Macron shows the middle finger and gives no f about rules, destroying em and aiming for a third mandate anyway.
I mean, it's Macron. Dude would shit in your children's bed and still get away with it.
Marine lePen will be candidate
@@rebme7793 And will probably not win. Again. Not that people won't vote for her, but really....there are too many people who would lose many things WITHOUT Macron, and people who won't vote because "Vote isn't real!". She can't really win imo
0:58 Small point on pronunciation. Le Havre is pronounced (in French) as Le 'Avruh, with the last part said like the 'u' in Ugg.
(I really thought you guys would've gotten this one, as Le Havre is directly across the Channel from England.) It's like if you caught Americans pronouncing Tijuana, Mexico (right across the border from California) as Tee-ju-wana.
You're not even correcting correctly... The last part is not pronounced at all, we say "Le avr"
It is pronounced Edwar like Edward in English but without the D at the end. 😊
Why make easy things complicated 🤣
Regarding Édouard Philippe candidature ..... if he is still alive in 2027 because he looks extremely sick.
I'm diggin that Eduardo Felipe tho
It's Édouard Philippe - there is no 'o' at the end
Far to early to even try to predict the presidential future of France. This report was a waste of my time, you can do better than this as your reporting before was far more interesting and current.
I love TLDR but why would we need a vid about potential presidential candidates in an election that will happen in 4 years? That's a long time, and I'm sure there will be an avalanche of upcoming things that will change french presidential prospects.
Le Pen 2027 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why isn't anybody talking about LR? Bellamy perhaps? I've been hearing predictions of a Rufan (FI) vs Bellamy (LR) run off.
Bellamy was the party leader at the last European elections and got 8%. It was a harbinger of what would happen to Pécresse three years later. LR is dead because it appears less moderate and serious than Macron (or Philippe), less populist than Le Pen and less security-oriented than Zemmour. Ruffin is not a party leader and has no room to the left. Mélenchon's stance is hegemonic and he is the only one able to almost unite the left despite all the problems he has that will certainly never get him elected.
Eduardo Philippe, mayor of Lay Havray
¿Quién es?
Why call him Edouardo Philippe ??
French viewer here. Needless to say, many things could happen between now and 2027.
Regarding the three potential designated successors to Macron within the ranks of his own clique :
- Darmanin likely wouldn't sit well with center-left voters that would've otherwise voted for Macron in 2017 and 2022, being broadly seen as the most authoritarian conservative.
- Philippe could score well among moderate voters, being himself perceived as a moderate (at least in appearances)
On the left, things are uncertain, but definitely, it won't be someone from the formerly powerful PS, which is now basically defunct on the national level. Also, we don't know what's in store for LFI after Mélanchon. The Greens have gained ground in big cities, even running Lyon, Grenoble, Strasbourg, Tours, Poitiers and Bordeaux, but they're still struggling to overtake this level of support.
Another player in 2027 could be Laurent Wauquiez as a candidate for the formerly powerful conservative LR. Who's Laurent Wauquiez, you may ask ? Basically, the French Ron DeSantis : young (he's 48, that's young by French politician standard), aggressively conservative, vocally anti-LGBT, climate change denier, will go full witch hunt against "woke", "islamo-leftism" in culture and university, all while running a populated region of the country. (It's worth noting that his party used to be the center-right 20 years ago, is now barely distinguishable from the far-right RN)
Zemmour could run again, but winning or even making it to the second round is another story.
I wish the best for Laurent. May France vote for him
@@RadicalizedRadical good jokes, but knowing france, they definitely are going to vote for the moderate.
Also, as a French guy, there is no way I'm gonna vote anything from the right-wing.
@@RadicalizedRadical Well certainly better than Le Pen, i must admit.
Being french myself, the answer to this question is quite simple : we don't fuckin know
Votes for left wing in France are declining
Yeah vote for left wing cause France isn’t enough declining of course!
Probably someone from Macron’s party, Le Pen doesn’t have enough broad support, and we can only pray Melanchon doesn’t win
We can pray he will win and put liberals capitalist like U in some camps.
LePen came close in the last election and with the peoples regret for Macron I can see her win next time. I wish her and her party good luck.
Macron's successor will dwarf both Le Pen and the next far far left leader because the french elections are based on eldery demographics and there is a generation still alive today that despises Le Pen due to decades of socialist propaganda that won't be dying yet.
It's a fascist group actually
@@colletnottcolletnott4703 Nice.
Amazing how there is no solid potential candidate from the "traditional right" (LR) or the "traditional left" (PS). Imagine in the UK, if both Labour and Conservatives had been totally destroyed almost overnight. The score of their respective candidates added up to around 7% in the French presidential election of 2022.
The next president will likely be Marine Le Pen.
I doubt. Too many dumb people brainwashed by medias who still believe it will be a "return to the III Reich"...
The wording of the title made it sound like Macron was out now, like he resigned or something
I still can't believe you convinced yourself he was called EDUARDO
How?
Cuál es el problema ?
Man misspoke foreign name 😱 omg omg.
French, Spanish, who cares? They are all foreigners. Right. 😊
PS: he didn't say it only once. If you make the same mistake consistently, _misspoke_ is not the correct word.
This is typical TLDR
@@lllluka three or four times?
Making such prospects 4 years before the election doesn't make much sense. Just for the record, let's remember Macron himself emerged on the public stage less than 3 years before the election by becoming minister and became a serious presidential contender only in 2016, just 1 year before he was eventually elected.
Either you call both le pen and mélenchon far-left/right or you call them both hard-left/right. Mélenchon is not less radical than le pen. Enough of this
True. He's even shown more "dictator-to-be" behavior than le pen over the last years, and his party more fascist type of actions than RN.
Bollocks, Melenchon is not far left.
Far left does exist in France and it's not LFI, it's LO or NPA (for the parties). He's not even further left than Mitterand in 81 when the socialist party won the election.
@@opheliedebroise9446 if melenchon is not far left , then Le Pen isn't far right either. Her programme is closer to the 80's communist party than mussolini's
@@jagorsimp7020 That's BS, and you know it.
His party is leaning more and more towards internal democracy, and mélenchon himself told that he will not run for the 2027 election and wants to the new generation of his party to take the lead.
But then again, I guess it's suuuuch a dictator-to-be behaviour compared to Le Pen's ruling on her party with an iron fist and with a Napoleon's style discipline... 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
Educate yourself, for God sake.
@@Shuyin781 lol do you even follow French politics Mr teacher?
Explain to me how Bompard takeover of LFIs head is a sign of a democratic movement. How he is being placed by Melenchon in a arbitrary manner and how Autain, Ruffin and Co. have reacted. How he supported his wife beater protégé, whilst the majority of his party wanted to get rid of him? Or the famous "la republique, c'est moi!" is the sign of a very Democratic and stable guy. Not even mentioning his open support of authoritarian governments in Latin America.
And if I was you, I wouldn't be so sure he will not run in 2027. The guy is a megalomaniac
Marine Le Pen!!!
I do not like Macron, but he is a pragmatist, and right now, France needs pragmatists. People who are willing to face up to the realities of the world and make difficult decisions. Macron will not be re-elected since he is serving his second, and therefore final, term, but I suspect his replacement will be a man or woman who (1) staunchly supports the EU (so bye bye Melenchon and Le Pen), (2) has a vision to lead France, and indeed Europe, towards greater military and energy independence, and (3) make difficult but necessary decisions to keep France economically viable. Melenchon and Le Pen fail miserably on all fronts.
Let's hope you're right, but the way the Front National keeps getting better results with each election doesn't make me optimistic. If they lose in 2027 it will probably be by a very small margin.
@@luernios9075 The Front National has pretty much reached its full potential. 55% of the French population will never vote for it. Le Pen will usually be one of the two finalist because she will garner more votes in the primaries, but she will not be elected in the national election. The next president will either be Mélenchon (although his anti-EU stance sits ill with a majority of French citizens) or the leader of a centrist party similar to Macron. Most French citizens are liberal at the core. They cannot bring themselves to vote for a nationalist, conservative candidate.
@@alextabet9247 In the 2022 election polls Mélanchon always scored lower than Marine Lepen in a face-off against Macron and I believe he was also predicted to lose in a Lepen - Mélanchon face-off, so him or another far left candidate becoming the next president seems unlikely to me, but you never know.
@@alextabet9247 marine le pen le seul recours pour l odre et l immigration le reste c est de la merde
@@alextabet9247 the French are stupid then
David Lisnard !
She's not far right she's just normal right Wing.
She's technically far right on the current political spectrum. Of course it doesn't mean she has anything in common with the Italian or German far-right of the 1930s, but that's the only thing medias and leftists can bring to discredit her.
Also this "far-right, right, left, far-left" thing is totally outdated. For exemple when it comes to economics, Macron is "right-wing" (in fact he is the most right-wing candidate) and Le Pen "left-wing".
You missed a single probability in this list : although it ended quite low in the last presidential election, but still higher than the traditional right and left parties, Zemmour's Reconquest brand new party shouldn't be underestimated as a future force to be reckoned with...
Zemmour isn't "presidentiable" enough to most people.
No, that's a steam screen this guy will never get more than 15%
@@colletnottcolletnott4703 true but the dude started with 20% and even 8f he got only 8% that's still a massive amount of the french population
@@iliveinyourwalls5193 he never started with 20%.....
France should adopt a Dutch style electoral parliamentary system. 4 year election terms and that's it.
Maybe a 2-3% threshold with transferable vote just so that the old guard cant complain that it will be ungovernable.
Also a major question is: does the left stay unified. A broad coalition of often rivals came together to try and breathe life into the dying left in france. And while the results look impressive for a party, its less so for an alliance. The unified left came in their behind a Reagan esque neoliberal and a right wing le pen. Thats a recipie for disaster if infighting breaks up that coalition.
Plus the unions have, despite their best efforts, failed to defeat the pension reforms. As they have been in decline for a decade or longer was this a final grasp for the french unions? And what will that in turn mean for the lefts unity and political relevence.
Quite an accurate overview of things. One thing made me laugh a lot: Ben, bless you, it is 'Édouard Philippe' (pronounced as 'Edward', not 'Eduardo', which makes him sound like a Latino drag queen or builder! 😸)
It’s not very accurate because melenchon and le pen are not representing themselves in 4 years time it will be someone else from there party’s ! Like a Ruffin or a bandella!
Have mercy on us. Darmanin ? Le Maire ? These are utter failures
It's done on purpose. The governement acts under the control of the military.
What’s with “Western” countries having a generational problem with objectively good leaders?
Whether they’re left wing or right, the quality has declined, and populists are gaining control, and rather fixing things that are obviously broken, you see them barely touching issues, and focusing on the next election
This is an excellent question. As a Westerner I think you’ve hit one reason why. I also think that it has to do with the way Democracy and Republics work. I don’t know but it’s just really hard to develop political leaders in a country where the leadership is elected. Not that electing leadership is bad, but man the country really suffers when it elects people that don’t know what they are doing. Campaigning is more like selling yourself as a problem solver, which is something that the people want to hear. I think something that is us regular folk don’t want to hear is that the stability and efficiency of our governments depend on us too and that we can be at fault because of our lack of caution and vigilance. People get complacent and just start voting for anyone who promises them everything. Idk man.
@@saintyveslaurent It's not hard to develop political leaders in Democracies by default, a big problem with many Western Democracies is that the ranks of Politicians are all people who are generally quite old, how often do you look at a sitting parliament or senate and see a sea of old men past their 50th?
Having such an entrenched political elite stifles any chance younger people have for getting into the political arena and can result in the incumbents molding the system to ensure they keep their well paid government jobs all the way until they retire, or die. End result is a bunch of people coasting on their laurels clinging to ideologies and ideas that are painfully out of date.
@@S3Cs4uN8 I don’t think being old is the problem. There is such as thing as too old, I will agree with you there. I’m a Traditionalist so I guess I’m one of those people who hold on to politically outdated ideas 😭, but I guess where I was trying to get at is that a democracy requires a lot of cooperation and understanding which I am all for, but what is needed for that is effective and experienced leadership. Youth doesn’t always make right and it is the responsibility of the Old to guide the youth and pass on the mantle which the old isn’t doing anymore. Maybe politics needs to be an actual profession, like being a doctor or a lawyer. I mean Donald Trump instantly become President with no previous political or military experience was wild. There definitely needs to be some levels to it. Experience won’t always guarantee that someone will be great but it’s so much better than having someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing. When the chips are down experience always wins.
@@S3Cs4uN8 Like bro would you trust a med student to diagnose some serious condition you have or would you trust an experienced physician with a decade of experience? I’m not saying we shouldn’t criticize our elders and not hold them accountable, but I think we should put more trust in them to do their job because it’s all we can do. Dude I’m like 20 years old I can’t even run my own life properly 😭. I’m grateful for our democracy but I think we need to start being real with ourselves that realize that democracy isn’t the only system of government that can work well. I think we get too caught up on ideals and utopias, but it’s time for us to accept that this world isn’t meant to be perfect and that we need to focus on doing the best we can. Once we do that I feel like our world will be a whole lot better.
Even though I supported the pension reform, it might have killed the political centre of France.
It just reinforced the idea that centre always means center-right.
@@GrosPointRouge,
in today's France, where both the far-right and -left are strong, I consider both the centre-right and centre-left to be France's political centre. Allthough, there is no doubt about that Macron's political movement has to be considered as centre-right.
Far right vs “hard” left. Hmm no bias there.
Yes, I like neither of them but they both seem equally radical in their own ways, so I'm always wondering why the media make this distinction and whether it's really justified.
The main left political force in France is not far left, actually. We have far left parties (NPA, LO) but they are not in the left alliance. The NUPES (left alliance) is not anti-capitalist. It is quite radical compared to the traditional french left wing party though (the PS, center left) so I can understand the "hard left" qualification.
@@louisg6296 Is LFI far left, or just hard left, or radical left? I don't know. Maybe it doesn't matter that much. What seems important to me, however, is to be consistent, so if we decide to call the RN far right but not call LFI far left, that implies that the RN is further from the center than LFI is, and I'd like to know who decides this and on which criteria.
I have a definition of right and left, far right and far left that can explain that
Basically this definition of the political spectrum doesn't depends on the ideas (because ideas can change according to the changes in the society) but on a chronological point of view according to a certain place (and it always works)
The right is basically the status quo, the ones who doesn't want anything to change in the society (so basically right now the ones who supports macron are according to this definition from the right) and of course (because this definition doesn't depends on ideas but on places and time) the ones supporting the communist party in China are right now from the right wing because they defend the status quo
now what is far right? they are the one searching answers to the current problems by looking into the past (that's how we can group together royalists and zemmourists in France for exemple even though they don't share a whole lot in common), just to give an example Zemmour took inspiration from the General de Gaulle (in the form) during the last presidential election because he is nostalgic of a france of the past where there was less sub european immigration, where there was less muslims, etc.
and what is the left? the left want to search new solutions to the problems faced by society
basically (that's how a green party and a marxist party can both be at the left even though they don't share everything in common)
so basically:
the far right wants the society to go backward
the right wants the society to stay as it is
the left wants the society to progress forward
what us far left? well they don't really exist with this definition, what is farer at the left is what is more against the current system and more for something new, that's why anarchists and communists are more at the left than social democrats for exemple
I myself call far-left the ones who want to change the society at its core, wanting a non capitalist society for the current state of France for exemple
So following these definition is LePen from the far right? Yes she is because she is against the status quo but as well as against social progress, she wants a france of the past, more nationalistic, with less strangers, with more regulations of the borders, etc. she is from the far right
now is Melenchon from the far-left? no he is not because he doesn't want to change the current society at its core, he just wants to reform it, he is a social democrat so he is not from the far left
Three major pieces of information are missing:
The French left has been united under the "NUPES" since the legislative elections in 2022. So it's very possible that a candidate wouldn't from Melenchon's party.
François Ruffin isn't from his party. He's associated with them, but is an independant (like Bernie Sanders not being a democrat in the US).
And most importantly: Melenchon explicitely said multiple times that he wouldn't be candidate in 2027. So your entire point of the video where he's a candidate is just not valid. I don't know why it's not in your video.
Les français sont ingouvernables
That is the (very good) question, my friend.
Isn't it too early to talk about such things?
It's just a prediction
The concrete things will be debated in 2 years
@@parisgaming2345 Thx, but I know that already. The problem is that it's closer to the previous election than the next, so why "predict" what's next so early.
Apparently, according to some people, Castex (the previous prime minister) would also run for the elections. Because when people ask Emmanuel Macron "who would be your ideal successor ?" his description reminds the one of Castex. But nowadays Castex is at the head of the RATP and seems to be indifferent.
Both Melenchon and Le Pen presidencies would be a disaster of huge proportions lmao
Agree ! Under such a centralized regime, both will find no constitutional opposition to stop their radical policies, leading the country to even more violence. That regime was designed for a temperate character, able to build a consensus. Chirac was probably the very last President to fulfill that requirements. (That's why he is often refereed as the "lazy king")
What's violent or disastrous about Mélenchon's political agenda ? He advocates for pretty normal social-democrat policies
@@louisg6296his policy seems quite good (and indeed standard for a European social democrat) until he starts talking about EU and NATO. Especially given how much Europe has been united in the aftermath of Russian aggression in Ukraine, his ideas are so fucking out of place.
@@c.guibbs1238 Macron's policies are very radical.
They cannot even produce the names properly. They should rename TLDR the "Dunning Kruger Channel".
This look like a bfm propaganda (from france)
TLDR News EU, can you please make next a video about the poll for the 2028 Presidential Elections in USA?
It’s called tldr eu for a reason 👍. There’s a global channel I think check there
@@dampmaky That's the part where you have a problem with my statement? :D
The 2 party system in the US is supposed to be basic left and basic right, where each side contains the full spectrum of affiliations and tendencies in each end. The left is stuck with the communists and the right is stuck with the fascists but they're the minorities way out on the far edges. So the 2 parties contain each sub party, they're like a sum, and we choose candidates who most represent certain places on the spectrum so they can evoke that in government. The 2 parties are like combined sums of all parties. If you think of it, any theoretical party will either be right or left of center. On a long enough time line, as voting and elections go, they eventually consolidate. I am most interested in electing people who do what's right and the best possible thing that can be done with as much wisdom as can be applied. Today that to me has been like 1 notch center right. When I say that, most people who read this will know almost exactly what that means, it has certain features, and the further out from center you go the more extreme it is. I hope France chooses well. As a man of history I know they're a huge part of what made the US even exist at all so I like seeing them do well. Cheers.
Exactly
It will be anyone that our medias will choose as usual
im polish, if le pen wins there is a high propobylity I might want a polexit
She won’t be elected. But I’m curious to know the reason which push you to a polexit as Poland is probably the country which benefited the most of the European Union during the last 20 years
"Eduardo" lol
I am French from the countryside, and I can tell you we mostly want LePen in the countryside.
I am French from the countryside and i can tell you, people don't want her THAT MUCH but nowadays, are willing to vote for her, or even Dark Vador if he were to enter the fray, to NOT have Macron or any of his group again.
I am proud to have had the opportunity to experience the French countryside and its smart, thoughtful, honest and hardworking people, and what you say about them sounds to me at least dissonant and borderline slanderous!
One hopes that the smart citizens of rural France will not vote to return to the Old Regime's oppression!
What's behind Le Pen is very dark indeed, a bunch of monarchists, outright Putino-fascists, and Vichy France holdouts!
@@DanielLLevy "French countryside". heheh. Yeah right. Did you also experience the daily life of the smart, thoughtful, honest and hardworking workers, farmers, nurses and the myriad of other of those great people barely getting by with what they earn because they're "nothing"?
Your "opportunity" is unlikely to have lasted as long as what i see on a daily basis, in factories, in hospitals, during memorials and events, or any other times. Inevitably, people talk about their life. About their family. Their situation. The feeling that things are being worse and worse. The fact that politics, especially traditionnal ones (the Right: LR, the Left: PS-PC-EELV, and the Center: LREM) are full of criminal and immoral people makes them mad. The fact that the far-left (LFI) is made of unskilled agitators. Many of em thought that Le Pen wasn't fit to be anything else than the leader of the far-right wing of the political picture.
Now? To them, she the "lesser evil". The one with potential scary ideas and allies, but had yet to do ANYTHING bad and harming while Macron IS doing bad things and harming the common people with a smile and the middle finger raised.
The "smart people" of rural France hardly experienced anything like their ancestors. The horrors of what far-right can bring is far from them, and they will no longer think of the future if they already want to shoot nukes at the present.
I could go even further if i had the patience, but at this point, if you don't understand that fast glances at the people's smiling faces in the streets or in their shops won't give you a solid idea of what they want, what they think and what they fear, whatever i'll bother to write won't matter anyway.
@@DanielLLevy 😂😂😂😂😂
Many things can happen before 2027
Hopefully someone from the (actual) Left!
hopefully NOT!
Like somebody who things you have to reverse pension age and let the French economy collaps in a few years? That’s Left for you? What does it mean anyway?
Hopefully
@@ai-d2121 Nothing a classic French revolution can't fix.
Agreed. Conservative governments screwed everyone over (including themselves) by acting so appallingly people end up having to vote in a half-assed 'liberal'
LaPen is a mess
My country is dying, the vote can maybe change something but we have to act in the local scale. Our tradition and our people are disapearing. Save the eternal France. Vive la France et vive le Roi.
Not Edouardo Philippe, EDOUARD. There is no O at the end... And good luck to find out who will be in last draw (out of 14 potential candidates - Real democracy!)!
Best luck to Melenchon or Ruffin!
Marine Lepen ❤🇫🇷💪🏻
De Pen Needs to WIN,It,s theOnly Way France can be Saved!
Good joke.
How to make an empty video for views :
Ask a question about politics that will happen in 4 years which is very long in political time. Answer by wait and see.
Le Pen 2027 💙🤍❤
After some macarons I normally have a coffee or 3
I hope le pen finally wins and starts hitting the deport button
Ok Himler
0:14 no marine le pen is not from the far right, her father was
Ruffin is interesting, I like the idea of a moderate bringing left leaning ideas to rural areas.
You mean packing rural areas with Muslim immigrants who will have zero problems with integration at all, and 100% respect all women😂
Mayor of WHERE?
Le Havre a city a costal city in normandy near the channel
@@laiphone8972 The presenter completely butchered the pronunciation.
@@atomic4650 I know im french
@@laiphone8972 The comment was joking about the pronunciation not where it is but ok.
Can we get another monarchy that would be cool this whole republic business doesnt seem to be working out for them
Word!
Is Édouard not Eduardo :)
Eduardo Philippe 💀 L video
Liked this - despite the mangling of the French language.
Le Pen? A disaster for NATO. I would hope that Les Republicains can find a decent candidate.
No, she is not very different from Macron, she consults the same policy design offices. She would be a kind of French Meloni or Berlusconi.
I just want someone who tries to stop French imperialism in Africa
Cry about it
What is France doing in Africa exactly? Hope it's more than the usual CFA franc stupidity
Based
This only possible if the left coalition finally wins, we hope so.
West Africa would collapse without the French
What about French Centre Right(Les Républicains) and French Centre Left(Parti Socialiste)? You didn't mention them