AMD is a sizable part of my portfolio, second only to NVDA. As long as Lisa Su stays at the helm, I'm comfortable holding it. I don't expect them or anyone to be able to compete with NVDA, but there's a large enough TAM for more than one AI winner. And I believe Su is smart enough to invest in opportunities for 3-5 years from now.
AMD is in 2nd place, in the AI race. With Nvidia releasing a new GPU every year, they will be hard to catch. With the future growth rate higher with Nvidia over AMD and the forward price to earning less with Nvidia. Nvidia does look like the more attractive buy.
@@michaelknight8459 AMD is also releasing new CPUs and GPUs at least once a year if not sooner. And they have Chiplet design architecture which is much more advanced than Nvidis' monolithic approach.
I am very bearish on NVDA. They are basically holding the entire Nasdaq up. To say we are in a bubble would be the greatest under exaggeration in tech history.
Thank you for the informative video today. I am a long-time AMD holder--my cost basis is $18 a share. I bought in at 5 and then added some as time went on--It is not a big position, but it was the first stock I ever bought. I think I might continue to hold it and see what happens with it. I would request that you put out videos about it from time to time--I find them really helpful
Okay good analysis but you lost me at AMDs data center CPUs being cannabilized by 'accelerated compute', you always need a CPU to run any GPU workloads. You can't just have a GPU sitting by itself and expect it to magically work......especially for running LLMs (that's why larger LLMS require more RAM to run ). If anything the inference workloads is where the real money will be in the long run (and AMD is already well positioned there just needed better software integration). In terms of inference, for the compute price AMD is quite competitive with Nvidia....which will be more important for the inference market than the GPU training market (which is why the hyperscalers are spending hand over fist on those ultra expensive Nvidia GPUs).
Hi guys. If at all possible, can you review AMD again? It is getting to ridicilous levels and good chance it can outperform. Just wondering your thoughts.
I think the comments from Jensen about gpus replaceing CPU’s entirely has been taken as gospel by these two . The numbers are saying different . Amds DC cpu business is growing nicely , no mention of epyc being used at the head of the node either . They’re basically saying yes Amd will grow GPU sales but it will be at the expense of cpu sales oh and that it’s already priced in . Well isn’t nvidias already priced in ? Some good valid points about margins especially xillink but that will bottom , no mention of managements design win momentum in that business either I don’t think this video will age well
I've been invested in Nvidia for a few years now. I realized they had developed a competitive advantage within their industry and invested. The same investment principle applies to my other holdings: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, TSM. I've been researching AMD for a few years now and really like their CEO. While they've made great progress, I just don't see the company asserting any competitive advantage with what they do. They just seem to always be trying to catch up with the leader; meanwhile, the leader continues to introduce more innovations.
You guys have the same portfolio as me. Google is my biggest position, then AMD, then NVDA, then Broadcom and Palo Alto Networks. I also have a small amount of META. But pretty close. I hope to trim my AMD position as well, but I'm not doing it during a fire sale
You did well if you have sold it. I have not sold it and amd has caused me a loss in my portfolio for the year 2024 in one of the greatest stock markets in years.
Shortsided IMHO. M350 will compete with Blackwell, and it will hopefully ship 2nd half of 25. AMD cap of 230B as of today, NVDA is 3.4.T...SU is playing the long game here.
It’s funny i came across your video just now. I sold all my AMD shares at the market open today. I just think AMD keeps trying to play catch up to Nvda but continue to fall short. Moreover, i don’t like AMDs gaming division. NVDA gives me more exposure to AI. So I’m building that position further.
This is a look at it from a pro stock investors point of view. However, looking at it from the perspective of a tech enthusiast, the new 9800X3D processor is going to sell like hot cakes because it's just so good. This is a big shift. I think PC sales will pick up because the console generation is aged right now. Even with the PS5 Pro's recent release. If RDNA4 GPUs can land a good release early next year, that's going to give AMD a huge boost. Consumers are looking for two things from RDNA4, AI upscaling (FSR 4, and good Ray tracing). Consumers are unaware of the good performance and stability already existing from RDNA3. Also, consumers do not know how to set up these cards in Windows for AI use. Namely Stable Diffusion and local LLM. When consumers realize what they can do with these cards and how much they save, that is when the confidence will come back. By that time, it will be too late to buy back into the stock.
I believe the main part of workloads in companies's On Premises data centers do not need AI or GPU centric chips. And with an increasing lack of trust in Intel, companies turn to servers with AMD Epyc chips. After moving to Epyc, they will continue to replace servers every 3-5 years.
You mentioned low FCF Margin but next year it is projected to grow 86% to ~$7B in FY25 and 38% to $9.3B in FY26. Shouldn't that be mentioned in your analysis?
@@evansd11 Do you always look in the rear view mirror? amd was $165 a share over 3 years ago. i stand by the facts that lisa su is not delivering. they did good if they have sold their amd shares. And yes, their comments aged well. Some actually hold the shares while many like yourself probably trade it. I own it and haven't seen any gains in over 3 years.
@@fred-ts9pb with the same reasoning Tesla, Amazon, etc would be bad companies to own because they got stuck in a trading range for 2-3 years. AMD is a future AI giant, if you don’t see that then sell the stock and move on.
This is the 2nd video of yours Ive watched. I like your analysis here and agree. AMD just can't get it together. AI people I know say amd hardware is good but their software is too hard to work with....of course on the retail gpu side they've always had software problems.
Guys, Open AI just recently stated they are now a semiconductor manufacturing company. How is this possible? How are they going to compete with NVDA, who is 10 years ahead of competitors due to R&D?
You may need to know that amd competes with cpu producers and gpu mgf. Arm rics intel/nvda. Generally semicon associates interfacing with software like cuda. How does amd do with cuda or similar. Get out from amd and go to nvda to make more money.
@RickSide-g5f I quizzed Copilot about this and got a lot of good info. It tells that AMD's use of ARM tech is not competing with Nvidia. Nvidia is mostly data center. AMD is a good spread into the tech of the world. That actually aligns better with my interests. Thanks for the thread to pull 🐸
I like AMD as a company, but honestly don't have much invested in the company. The issue I've had with the company is that the valuation, based on price-to-earnings, just seems excessive. I think the major issue is that the valuation has been impacted by NVDA. Way too expensive at the moment, IMHO.
@@jakesim6580Forward PE of 28 divided by PEG of 0.4 implies a growth rate in earnings of 70%. You think AMD is cheap with a PEG OF 0.4 because it will grow earnings at 70%?
Intel quarterly revenue is twice that of AMD. But they are spending a lot of money to catch up to TSMC and Samsung. We can't have tsmc be the only fab on the planet
How much has amd fallen since this video was posted? lisa su is overhyped, overpaid and an under performing ceo. amd stock is negative for 2024 and hasn't kept a new high in over 3 years, all the while lisa su is paid millions.
amd is the lowest quality IT stuff you can buy. never amd. its forbidden by rule. no products amd, no stock amd. nothing AMD. utter low quality design of everything. always second place - amd.
AMD is a sizable part of my portfolio, second only to NVDA. As long as Lisa Su stays at the helm, I'm comfortable holding it. I don't expect them or anyone to be able to compete with NVDA, but there's a large enough TAM for more than one AI winner. And I believe Su is smart enough to invest in opportunities for 3-5 years from now.
AMD is in 2nd place, in the AI race. With Nvidia releasing a new GPU every year, they will be hard to catch. With the future growth rate higher with Nvidia over AMD and the forward price to earning less with Nvidia. Nvidia does look like the more attractive buy.
@@michaelknight8459 AMD is also releasing new CPUs and GPUs at least once a year if not sooner. And they have Chiplet design architecture which is much more advanced than Nvidis' monolithic approach.
I agree
@@AlMoreno-p7j amd does not have the dev community to support its hardware like Nvda with cuda..... end of story we kno who the winner is...
I am very bearish on NVDA. They are basically holding the entire Nasdaq up. To say we are in a bubble would be the greatest under exaggeration in tech history.
Thank you for the informative video today. I am a long-time AMD holder--my cost basis is $18 a share. I bought in at 5 and then added some as time went on--It is not a big position, but it was the first stock I ever bought. I think I might continue to hold it and see what happens with it. I would request that you put out videos about it from time to time--I find them really helpful
Okay good analysis but you lost me at AMDs data center CPUs being cannabilized by 'accelerated compute', you always need a CPU to run any GPU workloads. You can't just have a GPU sitting by itself and expect it to magically work......especially for running LLMs (that's why larger LLMS require more RAM to run ). If anything the inference workloads is where the real money will be in the long run (and AMD is already well positioned there just needed better software integration). In terms of inference, for the compute price AMD is quite competitive with Nvidia....which will be more important for the inference market than the GPU training market (which is why the hyperscalers are spending hand over fist on those ultra expensive Nvidia GPUs).
Hi guys. If at all possible, can you review AMD again? It is getting to ridicilous levels and good chance it can outperform. Just wondering your thoughts.
I think the comments from Jensen about gpus replaceing CPU’s entirely has been taken as gospel by these two . The numbers are saying different . Amds DC cpu business is growing nicely , no mention of epyc being used at the head of the node either .
They’re basically saying yes Amd will grow GPU sales but it will be at the expense of cpu sales oh and that it’s already priced in . Well isn’t nvidias already priced in ?
Some good valid points about margins especially xillink but that will bottom , no mention of managements design win momentum in that business either
I don’t think this video will age well
I've been invested in Nvidia for a few years now. I realized they had developed a competitive advantage within their industry and invested. The same investment principle applies to my other holdings: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, TSM. I've been researching AMD for a few years now and really like their CEO. While they've made great progress, I just don't see the company asserting any competitive advantage with what they do. They just seem to always be trying to catch up with the leader; meanwhile, the leader continues to introduce more innovations.
Could you do a video on ONTO and their recent purchase (and stock drop)
Thank you
yall are a unique pair for sure
You guys have the same portfolio as me. Google is my biggest position, then AMD, then NVDA, then Broadcom and Palo Alto Networks. I also have a small amount of META. But pretty close. I hope to trim my AMD position as well, but I'm not doing it during a fire sale
Once again you guys are the best on RUclips and right up there with Stacy from Bernstein. Tip of the hat.
I appreciate the depth of your analysis and the effort you put into explaining these concepts. Thank you!
You did well if you have sold it. I have not sold it and amd has caused me a loss in my portfolio for the year 2024 in one of the greatest stock markets in years.
Shortsided IMHO. M350 will compete with Blackwell, and it will hopefully ship 2nd half of 25. AMD cap of 230B as of today, NVDA is 3.4.T...SU is playing the long game here.
I think so as well. AMD is still well positioned and is able to become a 1T MCap company at least
amd will be in double digits before the middle of the year. amd below 200B market cap now, and going lower. Time for lisa su to take a hike.
Very helpful analysis from a non-AMD investor who has at times considered taking a position. Much appreciated. Be Well.
It’s funny i came across your video just now. I sold all my AMD shares at the market open today. I just think AMD keeps trying to play catch up to Nvda but continue to fall short. Moreover, i don’t like AMDs gaming division. NVDA gives me more exposure to AI. So I’m building that position further.
What might’ve been more helpful though it’s difficult is to assess the $500 billion figure for 2028. Thank You both.
This is a look at it from a pro stock investors point of view. However, looking at it from the perspective of a tech enthusiast, the new 9800X3D processor is going to sell like hot cakes because it's just so good. This is a big shift. I think PC sales will pick up because the console generation is aged right now. Even with the PS5 Pro's recent release. If RDNA4 GPUs can land a good release early next year, that's going to give AMD a huge boost. Consumers are looking for two things from RDNA4, AI upscaling (FSR 4, and good Ray tracing). Consumers are unaware of the good performance and stability already existing from RDNA3. Also, consumers do not know how to set up these cards in Windows for AI use. Namely Stable Diffusion and local LLM. When consumers realize what they can do with these cards and how much they save, that is when the confidence will come back. By that time, it will be too late to buy back into the stock.
love you guys. love your quiet humor
I believe the main part of workloads in companies's On Premises data centers do not need AI or GPU centric chips. And with an increasing lack of trust in Intel, companies turn to servers with AMD Epyc chips. After moving to Epyc, they will continue to replace servers every 3-5 years.
Magnificent 9: add Broadcom and NFLX to MSG 7
I really like Broadcom, because they have both the chips and software just like with Nvidia.
You mentioned low FCF Margin but next year it is projected to grow 86% to ~$7B in FY25 and 38% to $9.3B in FY26. Shouldn't that be mentioned in your analysis?
Very bold fundamental predictions. You must know the sector really well to make such predictions.
Excellent job guys
This will not age well.
Really? lisa su is clueless, and has failed shareholders for over 3 years.
@@fred-ts9pb LOL - Check the returns on AMD since she took over as CEO
@@fred-ts9pb That's hilarious, do your research before spready FUD.
@@evansd11 Do you always look in the rear view mirror? amd was $165 a share over 3 years ago. i stand by the facts that lisa su is not delivering. they did good if they have sold their amd shares. And yes, their comments aged well. Some actually hold the shares while many like yourself probably trade it. I own it and haven't seen any gains in over 3 years.
@@fred-ts9pb with the same reasoning Tesla, Amazon, etc would be bad companies to own because they got stuck in a trading range for 2-3 years. AMD is a future AI giant, if you don’t see that then sell the stock and move on.
I bought your dump. 1,000 shares today.
Any update on Axcelis?
The price is very appealing but it's only been trading down for the past year.
Holder AMD 😊
Happy monday!
Happy Monday to you!
Recent Astera Labs earnings shows a strong growth. Can you guys share any insights about this chip company?
This is the 2nd video of yours Ive watched. I like your analysis here and agree. AMD just can't get it together. AI people I know say amd hardware is good but their software is too hard to work with....of course on the retail gpu side they've always had software problems.
I’m thinking of selling all my AMD stocks as well and add SNPS that I already have for three years
SNPS is a great one
@@reggie2261 i sold all my snps about 2 weeks ago. I couldn’t get a good feel for the stock or the company
What about TSM?
ruclips.net/video/iLIKAkSIPpE/видео.html
Holding on Lattice semiconductor ❤
Trim Snip Cut Sell... Sounds like a smart move with the dip today (11/15/24)
By the way told ya buy more Applovin up 51 percent after blow out earnings and an stock buy back!
Guys, Open AI just recently stated they are now a semiconductor manufacturing company. How is this possible? How are they going to compete with NVDA, who is 10 years ahead of competitors due to R&D?
Open AI is not a publicly traded company .. however microsoft is it's biggest partner.
AMD MI350 will win much bigger market share from the AI training workload. with Pensando UE and UAlink lock and load in 1Q 2025.
AMD = Advanced money destoyer...I held for 18 months with 20% loss. I sold it ...But may be a good stock to buy the dip..
why did you sell it if its good to buy the dip?
@@MrMutantbass Good question. I wanted to free up capital to buy something else. I have limited capital right now..
@@eversunnyguy I see. What did you buy?
@@MrMutantbass Not yet...waiting for some correction...but put a little in AVGO.
You may need to know that amd competes with cpu producers and gpu mgf. Arm rics intel/nvda. Generally semicon associates interfacing with software like cuda. How does amd do with cuda or similar. Get out from amd and go to nvda to make more money.
Tanke ❤
To me, TSMC is the second next to NVDIA best winner in this new AI reality. Just my opinion.
I just opened a small AMD position. I trust Lisa Su like most people.
uhm .. if intel goes bankrupt .. AMD is posed to inherit the CPU market
so, what would you buy instead?
PLTR?
I think Rick Rude and Mr. Perfect were both denied championship title runs. Ironic, since they were friends in real life, and both died in their 40's.
Those that are not talking about Ai are not human
Ayone is not talking about AI is suspicious
Both Nvidia and Intel are simply one announcement away from going 10X it's just a matter of if and when such an announcement happens
Sorry since when AI inference was done by CPU infrastructure?? I am quite confused 😂😂
Now $115 following a number of broker downgrades. Looks like we will have to see what happens at month end when earnings come out.
Hope you sold your AMD at 170 or $165. Selling your long term AMD position on 145 or less is regarded.
No reason to touch Advanced Money Destroyer when NVDIA exists and dominates. There is no 2nd best.
Clearly there is...
screw youtube. ads. Not enough money, Google?
AMAT
Please make your AMD stock sell, so that we fly in 2025 with a lighter load.
AMD let the big boys change the game to ARM based processors.
AMD is both ARM and X86, actually AMD is loaded with opportunity
@RickSide-g5f I quizzed Copilot about this and got a lot of good info. It tells that AMD's use of ARM tech is not competing with Nvidia. Nvidia is mostly data center. AMD is a good spread into the tech of the world. That actually aligns better with my interests. Thanks for the thread to pull 🐸
@@RickSide-g5f I quizzed Copilot about AMD's acquisition of Xilinx and got a lot of good and positive info.
Shazam!
Dump AMD. Buy at 80.
😂😂
@@FSGallipoli Haha, it's already at 119.
@skylounge it might go down to 105 even 100 but 80 😂😂
@skylounge $127. Over %50 than your prediction. I take it any day. Stay away from stock market dude, you might go bankrupt.. 😂😂😂
Amd need to play catch up with Nvidia or they will beocme irrelevant
I like AMD as a company, but honestly don't have much invested in the company. The issue I've had with the company is that the valuation, based on price-to-earnings, just seems excessive. I think the major issue is that the valuation has been impacted by NVDA. Way too expensive at the moment, IMHO.
That is due to the Xilinx acquisition. Their Forward PE is only 28 and PEG ratio of less than .4 ATM.
@@jakesim6580 Does that PEG ratio account for the Xilinx acquisition distortion in their earnings?
@@jakesim6580Forward PE of 28 divided by PEG of 0.4 implies a growth rate in earnings of 70%. You think AMD is cheap with a PEG OF 0.4 because it will grow earnings at 70%?
keep selling 😂📈
I started a position in SIMO
INTEL WHO? LoL
Intel quarterly revenue is twice that of AMD. But they are spending a lot of money to catch up to TSMC and Samsung. We can't have tsmc be the only fab on the planet
How much has amd fallen since this video was posted? lisa su is overhyped, overpaid and an under performing ceo. amd stock is negative for 2024 and hasn't kept a new high in over 3 years, all the while lisa su is paid millions.
went from 145 to 139
ASML SMCI and AMD ruining the market. Time for PURE STORAGE to lead us.
Chips are the new Tulips
Time to dump all stocks!
amd is the lowest quality IT stuff you can buy. never amd. its forbidden by rule. no products amd, no stock amd. nothing AMD. utter low quality design of everything. always second place - amd.
T.I.T.
With MI325x and RDNA4 coming out, now is a time to buy AMD. Thankfully I wasn’t in AMD but have been buying now under $130