Consistently, the best analysis on YT and beyond, all substance and no hype. Democratizing serious investing for the little guys; meanwhile, the big guys are peeking behind the curtains. Please keep at it, we need you!! Love ya'll to pieces!
I bought 4 AMD today! Total 11 shares... my overall investment average dropped to $148 per share... i am still under water but buy them at a discount, and average per stock improves. I also happily own 265 NVDA shares 🎉🎉 bought 10 TEM & 33 SOUN.. 😊.. AI stock long-term holder here!!
AMD is poised to become a strong stock in the near future, driven by an impending upgrade cycle as computers purchased 5-7 years ago begin to show their age. This trend is hitting home because literally every computer in my house is crawling to a halt😭
AMD is still not a household name. Customers still buy Intel based machines. For them the small performance difference doesn't matter. Best bang for the buck desktops are typically from Dell/HPQ when they are on sale, and they typically have Intel CPUs. Gamers and enthusiasts would get AMD CPU and build from scratch because it's currently running the best. I think AMD still doesn't have the mass production capability through TSMC. They'd have to slowly chip away at Intel's market share.
This is true. Nvidia is trying to catch up but will need some time. They are using different architectures in their GPUs, which make the inference difference.
Love your presentations, reasoned analysis without the hype. I’m really grateful that you help tame my animal spirits in stock selection. Great to see your channel growing so quickly, it’s very well deserved. Thank you
I think if you don't not have a position in NVDA , buy that instead on AMD. If you do own NVDA sharesa and want another semi stock, AVGO would be my go to instead of AMD.
Love your content. Keep it up. Sentiment just isn't there for investors paying above fair value like they do with other tech stocks. Not sure why but until that changes, I think my money is invested better somewhere else.
A DCF with a growth rate of 75% for two years, followed by terminal growth rate of 7.5% doesn't make sense even for bear case. Enjoy the commentary about the industry from this channel, they have some deep insights but financial analysis wise ...
Hi guys. As always, thorough and great analysis. I do have a question, I'll much appreciate your reply if possible: It sounds as if your real concern for the stock price are the financial results to back up the expectations (as you said towards end of video), not the technology or its viability. In other words: my take from you is: AMD CAN compete with NVDA and with Intel and CAN grow and be an even better player in the market (including AI). However you aren't sure this may materialize enough financially. Would you agree with what I just said? Is that how you look at this? Thank you!
The reason I framed my question this way is because personally I believe in Lisa Su that as long as she has the tools (technology) to compete, she'll find the way to structure the finances to reward investors in a right way. So, I would be bullish. But that's just me. My question is intended to understand where is the heart of your question with this company: is it with its technology not being good enough OR with its structure and operational optimization? by the way, I do own AMD, and like said I'm bullish on the stock. Thanks again, Will much appreciate your reply if possible.
I recently added a few thousand shares of AMD to my portfolio on the thesis that AI inference compute will become a larger focus in infustructure spend. AMD is extremely competitive with NVIDEA in inferencing, even though they lost the training fight. Thoughts on this specifically?
AMD is gaining Market share from Intel in both server CPU’s and desktop/laptop CPU’s. I believe revenue will keep increasing over the next 3 years. This alone makes AMD a buy, if they gain market share in AI then the stock can go up even more. AMD is a buy and all those that did not buy it because they watched this video will be kicking themselves in a year. AMD has the best CPU’s now and profits over 2025 will improve.
do you think the demand for the 9800x3d will have bumped up gaming this quarter? the release of the 9000 series was a let down so I imagine that's why gaming was down however the 9800x3d has been selling like crazy
Honestly it’s matter of opinion like Pepsi vs coke some might say AVGO is king or AMD is king stock price doesn’t determine who’s king it’s all personal preference. I personally think AMD has far more growth from where we are in the market now vs NVDA in terms of $ growth doesn’t mean either is better I personally think I’ll make far more off AMD than I would with NVDA right now so as I said it comes down to personal preference that is why hopefully you understand now
@@kokeallen3192 $nvda is up 1000% in 2 years, of course you won't make money in it now. Well even if you do, it'll be far less than what you could've. Also keep in mind, just because amd is down 50% does not mean it's cheap. It still needs a good earnings release in 2 weeks, probably more than just good tbh
Why are you using GAP in your analysis… Are you not aware of the good will expenses associated with Xilinx… or are you purposefully not considering this nuance to prove your thesis? Please research and understand how this works for this and future analysis you do..
(GAP p/e for a company with this amount of goodwill amortization is not a rational metric, either use non-gap or a different metric that isn’t deducting costs that were not actually incurred for tax purposes…)
And their “overspending” compared to Xilinx market cap is already priced into the share price, so it’s really just double penalizing them when you try to evaluate it in such a way.
I think Lisa has to go. She has done an awesome job saving the company, but now AMD needs someone with different leadership skills - to innovate, to go forward… Lisa is too soft… Maybe I am wrong….
The situation here is not a great leader made some mistake , but a great leader facing a new tough Challenge. Change a leader does not solve the problem automatically😂
Lisa is a great CEO, I would be sad to see here move. I guess AMD will have a bright future and that’s why I‘m invested and why I even added some 2027 leaps
amd just met a tough competitior，Nvidia. you cannot find a better leader to defeat Jensen huang. it is ridiculous and impractical to replace Lisa su. I would rather give her more time to watch.
Consistently, the best analysis on YT and beyond, all substance and no hype. Democratizing serious investing for the little guys; meanwhile, the big guys are peeking behind the curtains. Please keep at it, we need you!! Love ya'll to pieces!
huh
Best analysis on RUclips!
I bought 4 AMD today! Total 11 shares... my overall investment average dropped to $148 per share... i am still under water but buy them at a discount, and average per stock improves. I also happily own 265 NVDA shares 🎉🎉 bought 10 TEM & 33 SOUN.. 😊.. AI stock long-term holder here!!
AMD is poised to become a strong stock in the near future, driven by an impending upgrade cycle as computers purchased 5-7 years ago begin to show their age. This trend is hitting home because literally every computer in my house is crawling to a halt😭
AMD is still not a household name. Customers still buy Intel based machines. For them the small performance difference doesn't matter. Best bang for the buck desktops are typically from Dell/HPQ when they are on sale, and they typically have Intel CPUs.
Gamers and enthusiasts would get AMD CPU and build from scratch because it's currently running the best.
I think AMD still doesn't have the mass production capability through TSMC. They'd have to slowly chip away at Intel's market share.
You guys rock. Best analysis on the whole social media.
The AI Inference market is bigger than AI Training. Remember this. AMD is focusing on AI Inference. Very Bullish lets go!!!! 🎉🎉🎉
This is true. Nvidia is trying to catch up but will need some time. They are using different architectures in their GPUs, which make the inference difference.
@@jiangli6533 Nvidia doesn't need to catch up as we already know that their GPUs are already being used for inferencing today.
Another awesome video🎉🎉
Love your presentations, reasoned analysis without the hype. I’m really grateful that you help tame my animal spirits in stock selection. Great to see your channel growing so quickly, it’s very well deserved. Thank you
Great level-headed and well presented analysis, thank you!
Still rooting for AMD. Hope it goes up
I think if you don't not have a position in NVDA , buy that instead on AMD. If you do own NVDA sharesa and want another semi stock, AVGO would be my go to instead of AMD.
IGPT eft
CHAT etf
Kudos for a really great analysis. No bullshit just the facts 😊
You guys do the dfc but dont show the numbers. You guys didnt reason about inference and meta partenership.
It was a reverse DCF, not a DCF, and yes we showed the numbers.
Love your content. Keep it up. Sentiment just isn't there for investors paying above fair value like they do with other tech stocks. Not sure why but until that changes, I think my money is invested better somewhere else.
Facts
A DCF with a growth rate of 75% for two years, followed by terminal growth rate of 7.5% doesn't make sense even for bear case. Enjoy the commentary about the industry from this channel, they have some deep insights but financial analysis wise ...
It wasn't a DCF, it was a reverse DCF. Big difference. Thank you for watching though.
Can you explain what you mean by reverse dcf@@chipstockinvestor
Thank you for another great video!!
Hi guys. As always, thorough and great analysis. I do have a question, I'll much appreciate your reply if possible: It sounds as if your real concern for the stock price are the financial results to back up the expectations (as you said towards end of video), not the technology or its viability. In other words: my take from you is: AMD CAN compete with NVDA and with Intel and CAN grow and be an even better player in the market (including AI). However you aren't sure this may materialize enough financially. Would you agree with what I just said? Is that how you look at this? Thank you!
The reason I framed my question this way is because personally I believe in Lisa Su that as long as she has the tools (technology) to compete, she'll find the way to structure the finances to reward investors in a right way. So, I would be bullish. But that's just me. My question is intended to understand where is the heart of your question with this company: is it with its technology not being good enough OR with its structure and operational optimization? by the way, I do own AMD, and like said I'm bullish on the stock. Thanks again, Will much appreciate your reply if possible.
I recently added a few thousand shares of AMD to my portfolio on the thesis that AI inference compute will become a larger focus in infustructure spend. AMD is extremely competitive with NVIDEA in inferencing, even though they lost the training fight. Thoughts on this specifically?
Can you explain why you used GAAP and not non-GAAP P/E in your valuation? AMD has been historically valued using non-gaap p/e right?
We did use non GAAP. Free cash flow is a non GAAP metric.
Hey guys, what about inference?
🎉🎉🎉
AMD is gaining Market share from Intel in both server CPU’s and desktop/laptop CPU’s. I believe revenue will keep increasing over the next 3 years. This alone makes AMD a buy, if they gain market share in AI then the stock can go up even more. AMD is a buy and all those that did not buy it because they watched this video will be kicking themselves in a year. AMD has the best CPU’s now and profits over 2025 will improve.
Agreed! Thanks!
I think you are being generous…need a bigger margin of safety
do you think the demand for the 9800x3d will have bumped up gaming this quarter? the release of the 9000 series was a let down so I imagine that's why gaming was down however the 9800x3d has been selling like crazy
thank you. Can you do Intel
He should collaborate with Jeff Hamilton to create a special Nvidia leather that includes the companies achievement s
I agree. AMD is not an exciting buy at current prices.
what about embedded earnings?
Great combo🫶
NVDA is king 👑. Why would anybody consider buying the 2nd best?
Honestly it’s matter of opinion like Pepsi vs coke some might say AVGO is king or AMD is king stock price doesn’t determine who’s king it’s all personal preference. I personally think AMD has far more growth from where we are in the market now vs NVDA in terms of $ growth doesn’t mean either is better I personally think I’ll make far more off AMD than I would with NVDA right now so as I said it comes down to personal preference that is why hopefully you understand now
@kokeallen3192 numbers and performance are not subjective. They are objective and show that NVDA is superior.
@@kokeallen3192 $nvda is up 1000% in 2 years, of course you won't make money in it now. Well even if you do, it'll be far less than what you could've. Also keep in mind, just because amd is down 50% does not mean it's cheap. It still needs a good earnings release in 2 weeks, probably more than just good tbh
Slight correction about the Xbox, its called the series X like the letter x not 10 (yes, horrible name)
You're absolutely right! I (Kasey) am not a Xbox user, and got it wrong! Thanks for the correction.
Fwd PE of 28, nearly the same as NVDA, for a complete dogstock! Another great video.
Advanced Money Destroyer! However they are eviscerating Intel.
Why are you using GAP in your analysis… Are you not aware of the good will expenses associated with Xilinx… or are you purposefully not considering this nuance to prove your thesis?
Please research and understand how this works for this and future analysis you do..
(GAP p/e for a company with this amount of goodwill amortization is not a rational metric, either use non-gap or a different metric that isn’t deducting costs that were not actually incurred for tax purposes…)
And their “overspending” compared to Xilinx market cap is already priced into the share price, so it’s really just double penalizing them when you try to evaluate it in such a way.
We used free cash flow, which is a non GAAP metric.
Where is everyone buying AMD? Waiting for pullback ? Or loading now
waiting for a pullback? It's been pulling back for the past 300 days lmao down ~50%
agreed!
Parker says 150
AMD still not worth the stock price? Oh well, the whole market is too high.....yeah! Good to hear they have business in the works.
Lisa Su and Jensen Huang are cousins. Basically no chance of AMD failing long term🤣
Historically, is February a bad month for the stock market?
Yes or no?
So bullish on AMD. Intrinsic value $180. Bought AMDL life changing position
AMD looks like it's going to impulsively breakout anytime soon. Grossly oversold.
Thanks for the update! Looking to DCA below $100
Amd cpu are far better than intel. Especially when it comes to handheld gaming pcs
I think Lisa has to go. She has done an awesome job saving the company, but now AMD needs someone with different leadership skills - to innovate, to go forward… Lisa is too soft… Maybe I am wrong….
Lmao. Yea you are wrong
The situation here is not a great leader made some mistake , but a great leader facing a new tough Challenge. Change a leader does not solve the problem automatically😂
Lisa is a great CEO, I would be sad to see here move. I guess AMD will have a bright future and that’s why I‘m invested and why I even added some 2027 leaps
amd just met a tough competitior，Nvidia. you cannot find a better leader to defeat Jensen huang. it is ridiculous and impractical to replace Lisa su. I would rather give her more time to watch.
@@robinwang9187 AMD doesn't need to compete with Nvidia to succeed.
First!🎉
AMD is setting up for major disappointment. Look for a 20% drop soon.
Solid analysis there. Really in-depth explanation. Thanks.
will be back here in 2 weeks. Let's see if ur right
💩 analysis 😅 more clapping in audience you can’t be real.
Give it a break buddy. They are clearly joking around. I don’t expect troglodytes to understand dry humor. I think you’re in the wrong place.
POOR AND BORING PRESENTATION
Poor and boring comment!
Here for the substance.
How much are you underwater on AMD?