Macron's call for a snap election in France is a huge gamble | Europe In :60
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- Опубликовано: 10 июн 2024
- What happened in the European Parliament elections? Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France?
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Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Berlin, Germany.
What happened in the European Parliament elections?
Well, there was a shift, no question, but not the fundamental shift to the far-right that quite a number of pundits have been speculating about. If you look at what's been the sort o, the governing coalition, if you might use that phrase, of the center-right DPP, the Social Democrats, and the liberals Renew, they used to have roughly 59% of the seats in the European Parliament. They now have 56% of the seats in the European Parliament. It is a shift, no question about that, but hardly a fundamental one. And I don't think you will see much of a shift in policies resulting out of that.
Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France?
Well, of course, even if there wasn't the major shift in European Parliament, there was a significant shift in individual countries. And, most dramatically, it was in France where President Macron suffered a very significant setback with the far-right, combined, getting roughly 40% of the electorate. Well, he decided this can't go on. So, he dissolved the National Assembly, called for new elections, got to be, sort of, in the early July, the decisive round. It’s a huge gamble. He might not have had much of a choice, but it’s a gamble anyhow. Will we end up with some sort of cohabitation between President Macron and elements of the nationalist right to France? Remains to be seen, but highly likely. Or will he succeed to mobilize those that are against this development in the country? That also remains to be seen. But that, of course, is going to have a fairly fundamental impact on what happened, not only in France but in the rest of Europe as well.
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Can you get out of wind when posting?
I wish someone would give Bilt a brief lesson on how to do this. Most of his vids have audio problems.
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The world is healing
Cohabitation would only happen if the National Rally got an outright majority in the National Assembly and Jordan Bardella would then be made prime minister. That is incredibly unlikely. First, NR would need to triple the amount of seats it now has. Second, the European Parliament election is nation-wide, has a much lower turnout than parliamentary elections and is typically a protest vote against the incumbent, as in other European countries. The chances of Le Pen getting a coalition with the other right-wing parties is also very very low.
The big thing to watch are Les Républicains. Their leader, Eric Ciotti, made a very big leap in promising a coalition with LR and NR. That did not go well with the LR leadership, at all. The two parties have very different programs and voter bases, as well as hostile histories. In effect, Ciotti went against his own for electoral reasons, which will not play well. We will see how badly LR splits. If it does in fact fall apart in two, Macron will scoop up the defectors on his side.
The left-wing coalition, NUPES, did have a good showing in 2022, but they then fell apart in the European elections and their renewed coalition (or "front") is looking very shaky in practice. There could be defectors to Macron's camp as well. The logic behind the snap election seems to be for Macron to split up both the left and the right and motivate the French to vote against Le Pen. We will see how it plays out, but it is audacious.
It would do France good to put Macron out of office.