cutting counterspells might increase your cEDH winrate
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- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2024
- Sandbagging is one of the best things to do in this format. And by not even having anything you sandbagg to the 100%! And the metagame of all multiplayer free for all games is to have one of your opponents deal with another one of your opponents. Taking these 2 factors into account it is quite cleare that less counterpells will aim at both of these 2 things.
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People take out counters to go faster and then somone decides to put an ouphe back in their deck and the meta shifts again.
I love your data driven approach to cEDH! The most trusted source in the format
Same. I'm Pauper but this kind ofapproach is invaluable, so thanks a ton.
you play pauper EDH? That format is awsome. I really wish there was more tournaments of that format.
Kom hit för att säga detsamma. Tack för din analys Måns!
A identical video analyzing Removal Spells would be awesome 👌
That is the plan.
You've had a few different "eras" of content creation, the data-analysis era being the current one.
Each time you change up your content, I find myself thinking how lucky the MtG cEDH community is to have a resource / channel like this.
I'd put you up with the likes of Nizzahon and The Professor for most useful channels for dataheads like myself in the Magic YT sphere! Keep it up homie! 100% you deserve 10x the subs!
Thanks man!
I wonder if people are doing better running fewer counterspells because those same people are relying on the rest of the table for stack interaction, and then once it's all used up, they can present their win attempt?
YES! That is it.
@@cedhtv Unrelated question. But do you think having Seat 1 draw their first card for turn during their end step would help fix the "Seat 1 being overpowered" problem? In addition to this, allowing Seat 3 and 4 to Scry 1 and Scry 2 as a pre-game action, respectively?
@@bretts3046 that would change balance quite a bit, as it would make top deck tutors on turn 1 much stronger
I feel like this is partially because we have started seeing turbo come back to get in under midrange again as a response to the heavy midrange meta we were seeing earlier this year.
Of course that is just one of the ways you could read this data and it is entirely biased based on games I’ve played myself or watched played by others.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the overall meta in the coming months.
Yeah at the end of 2024 we will have a strong indication I think.
This is the best cEDH channel on RUclips!
Mons is BY FAR the best for analysis :D
Idk about the best but it def is awesome and love Mons. ❤❤❤
wow thank you. That means a lot.
Taste is all about different opinions.
Cant wait for the year end reveiw vids will you be comparing 2023 to 2024?
Yes a bit. It will mostly be an update on how 2024 started and ended.
Really interesting analysis but i have a question: The bottom row of non/less winning decks i think is making your data bimodal? What would this analysis look like if you removed the bottom row of 0 win decks?
I am not sure what you mean? Remove the bottom row of all decks with zero wins?
Yes correct. I would analyze the zero win decks and non zero separately. This should reduce your standard error and maybe get some more insight from this wonderful data set you've created.
I like your analysis of the data, this is very interesting to watch.
Does that decrease in counterspells correlate with an increase in spot removal?
I don't know. I plan to do the same with a spot removal list.
If the meta is Turbo, a high amount of counterspells are needed. It is kinda common for Rog/Si to pop off turn 3. And Rog is pretty amazing since it turns on two free counters and Flare of Duplication. All on turn 1. For other commanders, they need to wait a while if not Fierce Guardianship and Deflecting Swat are shitty 3 mana spells.
I would love your input on a feeling I have! I feel like turbo meta decreases deck diversity and midrange and stax meta increases deck diversity. This makes sense to me because speed being the most valuable metric makes a few select commanders like Rog Si most valuable.
This is all just a feeling though and I would love to see data!
This is true. There is a death sceanrio to cEDH enetierly in this. If the fastest deck is the best thing to be. The sad answer is that turn order will be the fastest factor. Let's say we all play 4 identical decks where there is no interaction whatso ever. And these are the 4 best decks in the format. The starting player is the fastest deck at the table.
Don't run any interaction at all. Got it.
Would it be more helpful to show a graph with more data points? A lot of these just have like, 4 points, for what I assume is like different quartiles of # of counterspells. I feel like a more granular plot could provide more insight into what the trend is (for instance if there was a point for each exact # of them you can run, or for each 10% of the data instead of 25%)
The sample size is to small for that.
I don’t have stats to back this, but has the addition of Born Upon a Wind and “Last Chance” type effects affected the tournament players want to run more counter magic? In a statistical style of question, is there a correlation between the number of decks adding instant speed style win cons and the recent decrease in on the stack interaction?
Hummm. I don't know the answer or how to find that out. I will have to think on how I can try and answer this question.
I've been running 9 counterspells in my casual deck few mths before， trying to not exceed 5 counterspells now or maybe 4 in future.
Interesting, but is taking in account that the meta already have a lot of counterspells, so you would be leaving for the rest of the table to stop someone.
If the meta shift for fewer counterspells overall I think than decks with more counterspell will win more.
No. They will run into the problem of 3 opponents are ALL trying to win. They can only stop one of them. So they will always stop the first and lose to the second or third. This is my experience playing lots of counterspells.
@@cedhtv So you really think that is not correlated with the meta?
Because If all my oponnet have a lot of counterspells and I have few, I will probably will have more consitency on my deck and will need to have better treat assesment, and my opponets probably will use their resources.
I'm a EDH player, I just talking about my experience overall ^^
You can’t let the Rog Si players know they should be playing LESS counterspells 6:53 💀
Have you looked at how this changes in non-blue decks? I've tried putting together a few decks and feel like I have to include rather lackluster/narrow cards just to have "counter spells". Are there alternatives that decks like a boros, mono red and mono black should be playing? Sure if boros plays every card it can from your list it reaches 12 (very quick count so it might be off) but mono black only gets to 4 and deathgrip/null brooch don't feel like the best options...
As someone who loves math and facts, I find this videos amazing.
I’ve seen decks that are pure counterspell and they get mad because “they don’t win.”
Instead of focusing on the other player game develop, I think to find lines is also very crucial, of course without missing other players actions out of sight.
Selective interactions is the way to go in my opinion.
I mean, if everyone else is going Turbo, it makes sense to cut counters since no one else is going to try to fight you. Better to replace those slots with more powerful stuff.
The more cards you see of one property, you would expect a negative impact, if one assumes that card quality matters.
Imp's Mischief is missing from your counterspell list
AH! YES! thank you. Adding!
@@cedhtv Also needs Flare of Duplication, Ricochet Trap, Bolt Bend, Return the Favor, Swerve, Deflection, Divert, Shunt
If you're counting Silence as a counter spell, would you also count Ranger-Captain of Eos or does he not count because you can't draw into it on your opponent's turn? Dress Down should definitely be included though
That is a good argument. It feels like more of a stax card. And it kinda prevent people from starting the stacks war. Like start with spot removal then go for win.
Could you post that moxfield in the video with the list of all counterspells, awesome video. A year an a half ago in my jenson lurrus deck I didn't run mindbreak, force of will because I was high on defensive vs aggro counterspells at the time. It's awesome seeing it finally in the bigger meta. Zain went undefeated the whole Swiss for the invitational on a rog list with counterspells cut from the deck.
FIXED! The link is in the video description now.
❤❤❤
Another great video, looking forward to seeing the data breakdown at the end of the year.
Have you considered doing other videos centered on meta analysis? I am curious how heavily the meta skews the data because of bias, for example are the top preforming decks really out classing other commanders or are they being played so heavily that the meta and data are reinforcing that they are the best options?
I know it would be nearly impossible to attempt to adjust the results for those variables but it is interesting to try to evaluate.
I do look into the bestplayers vs the not best players to see if there is a difference now and then. Do the 2 different groups play different cards. The answer is kinda no. I also do a meta video at the start of each year. I have been doing so for about 3 years in a row now. So there are some.
Probably true until everyone starts doing it
Thanks! Looking forward to seeing updated years end. Would expect turbo needs less than midrange- tivit/ sissay.
Wondering about defense grid type cards- I missed if that was included.
Defens grid is usally getting a good winrate when added to the decklist. But it is not among my counterspell list.
The solution is simple, don't play Blue and let the other player with the job to Counter Stuff.
That has been a solution for a lot of decks. Like Godo is still good.
it's not that running counterspells lowers your win rate because "duh" your running counterspells instead of cards that help you win. Your running counterspells to stop your opponents from winning or stopping you from winning. it's a four player singleton format. You want to be the first one to win the game and 8/10 if you counter a spell that spell may as well be exiled if it didn't from Force of Negation.
Ya but if you’re trying to win a counterspell can be equally effective as an ad naus. I think every counterspell that you need to pay 2 or more mana to cast is not worth running at this point. Mana Drain is the only one that I’d even consider using at this point. If you can’t reliably win turn 2 you may NEED a free counterspell to see your turn 3. Even if you’re faster than the other players a flusterstorm or mental misstep can mean you get to see your turn 2 or stop Nadu from getting a bunch of mana and cards to stop you. I think I’m on like 14 counters in Nadu since I can’t out speed a rog//sai and I need to protect my combos. I think 5 counterspell in Rogsai is the sweet spot and I don’t think you want ones like force of negation or offer. Swan song is great because it hits rhystic and FoW
Thx you to include Najeela
Timing and Situation can be manipulated by a skilled player.
I.e. the phrase 'the bigger the stick is the bigger the fear of the wielder'.
Meaning loading up on counter/control spells gets in your way of winning. Being scared of a counter war is being unconfident in oneself(and even lacking in skill).
You gotta learn to play decks as well as people!
Run 'Glasses of Urza',
1 cmc
"tap: look at target opponents hand"
Hand Information is incredibly underrated and under used hence the real player skill.
This could change pretty fast if people start to play stax again now that the common decks have changed from midrange
The problem is value engines and multi-purpose one-sided reusable tools became too efficient.
Interesting! Would be cool to do a vid on which is currently the best pirates deck
Pure gold, keep up the great work
thank you. I will.
What cards do these decks play instead, when they cut counterspells? Would be interesting to see similar studies about other categories, like card advantage, other types of interaction, etc.
So I normally make videos looking into what cards are good in different commanders. For example I have made some looking at tymna and kraum. But to see what cards are used if force of will it not used is hard to see.
The sample size required to look at that is something similar to the stats hsreplay can get for standard. Thousands of games with the same deck and thousands each with all of its variants too.
@@cedhtv i would figure it would be more enablers to get to the combo but which ones is the question
I think looking at your full list vs a list of spells primarily used for protecting your own wins is interesting.
Like. Cut dovins veto. Spell snare. Mana drain. Strix serenade. Etc etc and look at winrates of just the pact, veil of summer, red blast, flare of dup etc.
I'll try to find time to make an example list of it later