Scientific Evidence Shows Extremely Powerful El Niño’s will happen more often with Global Warming
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- Опубликовано: 6 окт 2024
- Guest appearance: Sally, my 14 year old feline and Shackleton’s backup sister:)!!
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
I need to upgrade my laptop and iPhone for filming and researching my videos, so please consider helping me out.
I wasn’t planning on attending the next global climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan in November, but may reconsider if people support my work and video channel and badges to get in are available.
Sincerely,
Paul
Scientific Evidence Shows Extremely Powerful El Niño’s will happen more often with Global Warming
A new peer-reviewed scientific paper has come out showing that we should expect many more extreme powerful El Niño events to occur as our planet continues to warm.
We can also expect more variability, given that the El Niño itself triggers the subsequent La Niña.
The paper has also figured out new insights into how the equatorial Pacific sea-surface-temperatures (SSTs) depend on the atmospheric wind speeds (Walker Circulation strength) and on the ocean temperature variations with depth (so called warm pool) via the so called Bjerknes Feedbacks. I explain all of this within this video.
The paper examines the strength of the ENSO from Paleorecords going back 21,000 years to the peak of the last ice age known as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Going back, the El Niño was at its absolute weakest, with minimum variability, about 15,000 years ago and has increased maximum strength and variability up to the present day, and will get even stronger and more variability as we head to doubling and even quadrupling global CO2 atmospheric levels.
We have experienced three so-called super-El-Niño events in recent history, specifically in 1982, 1997, and 2015 which wreaked havoc in many places around the planet. Each of these events had central equatorial SSTs over 2 degrees C warmer than normal.
We can expect many more of these super-El-Niño’s to occur as global warming accelerates.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
I need to upgrade my laptop and iPhone for filming and researching my videos, so please consider helping me out.
I wasn’t planning on attending the next global climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan in November, but may reconsider if people support my work and video channel and badges to get in are available.
Sincerely,
Paul
Guest appearance: Sally, my 14 year old feline and Shackleton’s backup sister:)!!
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
I need to upgrade my laptop and iPhone for filming and researching my videos, so please consider helping me out.
I wasn’t planning on attending the next global climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan in November, but may reconsider if people support my work and video channel and badges to get in are available.
Sincerely,
Paul
Scientific Evidence Shows Extremely Powerful El Niño’s will happen more often with Global Warming
A new peer-reviewed scientific paper has come out showing that we should expect many more extreme powerful El Niño events to occur as our planet continues to warm.
We can also expect more variability, given that the El Niño itself triggers the subsequent La Niña.
The paper has also figured out new insights into how the equatorial Pacific sea-surface-temperatures (SSTs) depend on the atmospheric wind speeds (Walker Circulation strength) and on the ocean temperature variations with depth (so called warm pool) via the so called Bjerknes Feedbacks. I explain all of this within this video.
The paper examines the strength of the ENSO from Paleorecords going back 21,000 years to the peak of the last ice age known as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Going back, the El Niño was at its absolute weakest, with minimum variability, about 15,000 years ago and has increased maximum strength and variability up to the present day, and will get even stronger and more variability as we head to doubling and even quadrupling global CO2 atmospheric levels.
We have experienced three so-called super-El-Niño events in recent history, specifically in 1982, 1997, and 2015 which wreaked havoc in many places around the planet. Each of these events had central equatorial SSTs over 2 degrees C warmer than normal.
We can expect many more of these super-El-Niño’s to occur as global warming accelerates.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
I need to upgrade my laptop and iPhone for filming and researching my videos, so please consider helping me out.
I wasn’t planning on attending the next global climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan in November, but may reconsider if people support my work and video channel and badges to get in are available.
Sincerely,
Paul
If you need help with screen capturing instead of filming your screen, reach out. I enjoy your videos, share a similar bummed feeling with regards to climate change, and want to help you get your message out to more people.
Ok thanks!
I actually appreciate the authenticity. But whatever he chooses I’m sure is fine.
The message is more important than the presentation optics.
@@michaeloreilly657 good optics can help a message reach more people
@@michaeloreilly657 Nothing wrong with picking up a few extra computer skills.
So sorry to hear about Shackleton’s passing. Thank you Paul for all your hard work over the years. Everything you said would happen is happening and I see little reason for optimism 😢.
My own thought: "What happens next will be as bad as any human as seen before". I hope I am wrong.
My kitty jethro is getting older, he’s 13. He’s ripening like fruit, getting sweeter as he ages
La Niña is expected to continue through November 2024 and January 2025. We're looking at more hurricane activity to end of the year. Currently in the Gulf of Mexico, TS Milton is already predicted to be a Cat 2 by end of week 10 Oct 2024. OTOH Hurricane Helene went from a TS to a Cat 4 hurricane in 48 hours. Stronger hurricanes in the Gulf are becoming more frequent even if El Niño will suppress them.
Oooh, sad to hear about Shakleton, sorry for your loss mr. Beckwith but at least you have Sally and Newton to chear you up.
Sorry to hear about Shackleton. He was an inspiration to cats everywhere and really just the best climatesplainer on RUclips!
the best 😢
To paraphrase the immortal words of Charlton Heston, "Damn those interglacials. Damn them all to hell."
Man...The Antarctic Belt has expanded 1000km north!
And the Thwaites Glacier is collapsing.
How do I access further information on this? I tried an internet search with no luck
@@auggiemarsh8682It's just an approximation.
The southern MSLP anti-cyclones have been merging with the northern cyclones in and around Melbourne. Normally they're seperated by half the height of the continent, so I guestimated 1000k's.
We're in it now!!
Sorry to hear that Shackleton is gone.
Kitty!!!.
I’m so sorry to hear about Shackleton. May he rest in peace over the rainbow bridge.
R.I.P.....Shackleton....
Sorry to hear about Shackleton. Sally is cute. 🥰
Thanks, Paul. Most informative,
B-yerk-ness feedback
paul the planet red kachina is here again earth will move soon hi sally
I’m suprised that El Niño map didn’t include typically elevated rainfall and intense storms in Southern West Africa. This invariably elevates likelihood of hurricane activity across the mid Atlantic.
Mrs Beckwith you saying less hurricanes with this strong El'Nino
Thank you Paul.
We ain’t getting out of this one alive!
Sadly.
Interesting video.
Sally is very cute!
I'm getting a "replacement " kitty tomorrow!
my older cat passed a little while ago.. which left the younger one alone..
so I'm getting this younger cat a kitten..
omg, we will see how it goes
👍
I take this study with a grain of salt. Error margin of key data in Fig1 is overlapping which is a red flag. How did the reviewers/editors let this slip??? Also pointing out that the current trend seems to be the opposite more la ninas...
Paleo-climatology which is almost to say the study of Hothouse Climate states...
Niño seems dominant...so it presumably must/will dominate
Hi Sally. Sorry to hear Shackleton left us.
bigger more powerful el nino's are great for los angeles, bring it on! last time when we had the neural phase that was becoming a el nino phase we actually got a hurricane to come up baja in to the desert it was AWESOME!!!! but now we are in a neutral phase that is heading to a la nina phase and i predict horrible drought here in california... last years el nino brought the biggest snowstorm to the sierra nevada mountains that we have ever seen.
Shacketon the Explorer will be missed. Hi Paul, Sally ,Newton ❤👋😊
This looks a lot like poetic justice to me....
Hi, Sally. :)
Please do a video on the effects of cat food on the marine environment.
You will be surprised.
please don't be the Pussy Police
Cats can survive on mice and leftovers if you have a farm though.
I don't know why I had not considered this previously, but I'm now really thinking on it...
Great video Paul many thanks and very interesting just have to wonder what or what numerous factors trigger these El Ninos ?? Is it sudden fluctuations of the CO2 levels? Or maybe rapid amounts of fresh water melting around Greenland or the poles? Or perhaps its all the above?
Neither. But don't know correct answer.
Permanent El Niño is called El Padre and occurred before northern hemisphere glaciation in Pliocene with slowly declining CO2
The physics of weather is interesting, and without this being a critique of you - a meteorologist, I don;t know why science as a whole seems more concerned with measuring the phenomenon, proving the case to Bishops that won;t look down the telescope, than with making a case for what to do about it. I don't know why science has reserved itself to describing and measuring climate change; and left it to sociologists to inform policy through protest. Where are the engineers?
Hallo Sally. Nice to meet you - purrrr. Enjoy your day.
Weather is a fascinating topic and often works opposite to what one expects. In terms of climate & weather, I am trying to hold a few seemingly contradictory phenomena in mind when trying to decipher weathef phenomena
- in a warmer world the atmosphere can hold more water (it should be raining everywhere a lot)
- warmer oceans means more evaporation & more energy to fuel hurricanes etc especially as deeper ocean layers warms too (there should be lots of storms & lots of rain everywhere)
- higher temps means greater evaporation from the land, eg soils & water sources (there should be drought everywhere)
- the temp gradient between the equator & poles is weakening the polar vortex (especially in the NH) so the midlatitudes should be hotter in summer & colder in winter
- in the SH the polar vortex is strengthening (even though the south pole is also heating up) affecting the ozone hole
- in a hotter world the AMOC will slow resulting in colder temps to NH higher latitudes, eg ireland, uk, nordic countries etc so they could possibly expect MUCH colder weather / climate
- in a hotter world the jet stream is becoming wavier and slowing down bringing hotter & colder weather, awa storms with a tendency to stall in place (bringing heatwaves & floods)
- in a hotter climate with hotter oceans with more evaporation & fueling bigger storms surely this means stronger trade winds... but no, the opposite is true (weaker trade winds, less rain, more drought)
- even as oceans warm, the world recently experienced a triple year La Nina (the cooler ENSO)
Huh?!
I don't know if the term climate "change" is very relevant anymore... climate rollercoaster?
El Nino is very bad for my country. We're naturally a water stressed country and El Nino brings serious drought. Couple this with ageing water infrastructure in disrepair, a growing population awa high urbanisation rates with an unimaginably high housing backlog. This ain't going to be fun...
Blessings
Would you do a piece on what individuals can or should do to address the climate situation? Thanks
A plant-based diet is by far the impactful thing an individual can do not just for the climate, but for healthier land, water and people.
total social change
@@nataliajakubek8830 Soviet working class communism, not this bullshit middle class leftism we have.
Salleee!
Sorry to hear about your kitty, Shackleton.. it’s hard to lose an old friend…
wonderful! Sally is beautiful too!
This dude is Mr. FUZZY Britchees 😊
El nino is an euphemism for weakening thermohaline ocean circulation
Noooo Shackleton!
😥
Like a large seiche
All to do with the sun and magnetic field.
EL Ennis are great, because they keep hurricanes from the east coast and dry up the south west!! Less snow in the midwest & east& drought in the south west!!( Bye,bye las Vegas)!!!!!!
I can live with that👌