Snow totals going up

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  • Опубликовано: 5 янв 2025

Комментарии • 109

  • @not2zen
    @not2zen День назад

    I’ve recently stumbled across your forecast and I’m glad I did, it only took a couple of them to earn you another subscription, thanks for what you do I really like the way you present yourself and the weather. Cheers my friend.

  • @ralphwillis1126
    @ralphwillis1126 2 дня назад

    Travis, I trust you more than the click bait idiots. You are realistic. Thank you.

  • @johncosgrove2738
    @johncosgrove2738 День назад

    Cold air damming is a frequent occurrence here in Southwest Virginia. So I believe the Euro version could be more reasonable outcome for us here in the base of the eastern slopes

  • @rlperryspage9311
    @rlperryspage9311 2 дня назад

    Hey Trav,,, I'm still putting my money on a big Nor'Easter or 2,,, the way the patterns seem to be rolling.

  • @andrewwilson707
    @andrewwilson707 День назад

    Presentation was awesome! You found your calling!

  • @travismcfaden818
    @travismcfaden818 2 дня назад

    Why in the world does my apple weather app give my area in central Virginia 10-12 inches of snow?

  • @daveeyde9622
    @daveeyde9622 2 дня назад

    Thundersnow is something to behold

  • @michelebadey3883
    @michelebadey3883 2 дня назад +14

    WE HAD THUNDER SNOW IN FAIRFAX VA AT 3:30 TODAY!!!!

    • @FishingNature87
      @FishingNature87 2 дня назад +2

      Yup we did in western Maryland today blizzard conditions many points in the day. These models aren’t taking into consideration the temperatures are going to be in low 20s in western Maryland northern Wv during the snow . The snow totals with fluffy snow will be way higher than forecasted if we get the moisture models are forecasting

  • @larrymeyer6978
    @larrymeyer6978 2 дня назад

    You do a good job perjecting the weather!!!! What about VA beach early in the storm and late in the storm!! Thanks Larry

  • @Zach-xc3vd
    @Zach-xc3vd 2 дня назад

    They bombed our forecast today. It was supposed to be a couple inches and stop at 10am here in w PA and that evolved to it still snowing (as of midnight Saturday) and 6+ inches

  • @sfuzombiefreak7833
    @sfuzombiefreak7833 2 дня назад

    Thanks for the video, man! I love your channel

  • @dennissvitak5475
    @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад +30

    OK...Jan 1982, I was a meteorologist stationed at Scott AFB, Illinois. We had a VERY similar setup...with 850 mb temps forecast to remain at +5 or better. Rain all night, changing to snow by about 4 am. Dynamic cooling cooled the column hugely..and we changed to all snow 12 hours prior to the models indication. Scott AFB got enough snow to close the base, and cost our Wing Commander his job. The thunderstorm that hit at 5 pm dropped SNOINCR 9. They've changed it to SNINCR...same thing. We got eight inches of snow in 45 minutes. Never seen anything like it. Given the DEEP pool of cold air, I would estimate total totals in the 60's...with a superadiabatic lapse rate from 700mb to 400mb. Absolutely unstable..and I would absolutely expect thunder snow with this system.

    • @timme2844
      @timme2844 2 дня назад +2

      I lived in Mt. Vernon at the time and remember that storm well!

    • @joewiese4174
      @joewiese4174 2 дня назад +2

      I believe that was the year that Northeast Missouri got .68 inches of ice on top of 2.3 inches of snow. Worst sled ridding of my life. And schools was only out one day.

    • @blackpearl9504
      @blackpearl9504 2 дня назад +1

      Funny thing is, we got a emergency alert on our phone here about a upcoming snow squall today.
      This storm didn't dump alot of snow... HOWEVER. The description you gave eerily fits. In a minor version.
      The snow seem to have literally BUSTED out of the clouds at high speeds. And was met with a LOUD BOOM. Thunder snow.
      It sounded like a legit thunderstorm outside. But when you opened the door, it was a ass tone of snow everywhere.
      Though not much snow accumulated because it didn't last long enough. I texted relative and told them I have never seen snow accumulate that fast in my entire life..
      The relative I was talking to is about 27 years older than me. And basically agreed. He said
      "I LITERALLY WATCHED IT SNOW A HALF A INCH TO 3/4th of a inch in a matter of a few MINUTES."
      I could only imagine, if it stayed like that for a whole hour. With some areas getting a half inch of snow every few minutes.
      It sounds strangely close to the scenario you just described.

    • @dennissvitak5475
      @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад +2

      @@blackpearl9504 - The thunderstorm topped out at 46 thousand feet. Snow flakes were as big as dinner plates, and you could HEAR them hit the ground. Pretty astonishing.

    • @gregalbert4033
      @gregalbert4033 2 дня назад +2

      I remember my first thundersnow. Day before our Christmas break in 1984, Northwood High School north of Shreveport, LA, in 1984. (I happened to watch Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel live witnessing HIS first.... 11 years later in 1996. And he's from Vermont.) The dividing line was I-20, and Shreveport Regional is right along it. Getting nothing but rain. Distance between the two? 14 miles.

  • @deancade114
    @deancade114 2 дня назад

    All depends on which Japanese channel your watching

  • @cody0010
    @cody0010 2 дня назад +2

    Can't help but keep noticing it seems it keeps shifting slightly further and further south. I live in northern middle TN and am keeping a close eye on this because it seems a little too close and showing we are going to get more ice than originally expected.

  • @linkrules32
    @linkrules32 2 дня назад +2

    It's usually gfs that's southern bias not the euro and I looks like the south can't catch a break even with a perfect pattern

  • @Boohpoop
    @Boohpoop День назад

    The NBA is going to freeze it's balls off.

  • @jeffcallahan8713
    @jeffcallahan8713 2 дня назад +2

    If so, pray 🙏 for southern indiana.

  • @darinlogsdon3429
    @darinlogsdon3429 2 дня назад +8

    Dang bud your subs are climbing fast. I just started watching you a few weeks ago but I deleted all other weather guys I watched. You’re the best.

    • @linkrules32
      @linkrules32 2 дня назад

      Mitch west is good, I don't watch the obes that focus on just 1 area that isn't on your local news

  • @franny5295
    @franny5295 2 дня назад

    I'm really concerned that Indianapolis could get freezing rain on top of snow and if that happens, we are in deep boo boo

    • @2012_cats
      @2012_cats 2 дня назад

      I'm in Indy and it keeps changing. I agree, we will be in deep doodo! Stay safe

  • @dennissvitak5475
    @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

    I gotta say that I don't like the deepening upper level low. Oftentimes, a low that is "closing" vertically will capture the surface low, and become vertically stacked. It then slows down, just like a polar vortex chilling in the base of the longwave trough. IMMEDIATELY prior to this, I would call it a late-stage dynamic low...and intensifying at the greatest rate possible. Surface low pressure center values may drop quite rapidly..and this will increase the low level wind field, and the magnitude of the low level jet just east of the surface low, bombing water vapor up and over into the cold air. You go from 35 kts at the boundary layer, to something above 50 kts, or even higher. The rate of precipitation formation will increase rapidly as well. That's the key.

    • @dennissvitak5475
      @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

      Pro tip. IF the storm tracks at all to the south (I live in St. Louis), we're screwed. Look for the surface pressure values for St. Louis (STL) and Cape Girardeau (CGI). This is your best indication of where the surface low is...by interpolating the two pressure systems.

    • @dennissvitak5475
      @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

      2nd pro tip: Most young forecasters take the models at face value. Their "analysis" is determining which model that want to use, lock, stock, and barrel. Weather forecasting, TRUE weather forecasting doesn't work like that. Take the new model run (either 00Z or 12Z), and physically compare the analysis to the 12-hour old, 12-hour forecast. Even minor differences may be huge. This process of model initialization and verification is critical, and just isn't done to the extent that it NEEDS to be done. Are the models so good that you can simply follow them blindly? Sure...if you've never done any real analysis or forecasting in your life. I spent thousands of hour hunched over a table, with markers and pencils, vertically stacking paper charts, to produce my forecasts. I don't see that..and HAVEN'T seen that for decades. Yep...I'm a dinosaur.

    • @WeatherWithTravis
      @WeatherWithTravis  2 дня назад

      You might find it entertaining. I would begin my shift, if time allowed, hand drawing a map with colored pencils. It helped me grasp the current regional set up for short term forecasting. Initialization of the models is huge. Stacking the papers is something that I have never had the pleasure of doing. I’ve definitely had my share forecasting through the wobbles that they each operational run can give you. Always viewed myself as the human ensemble, finding the mean, using some climatology, analog data if it exists, and sometimes, a gut feeling based on past experiences and trends.

    • @dennissvitak5475
      @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

      @@WeatherWithTravis - OK. You have yourself a new subscriber. Not that I won't occasionally throw a cranky old man's input into your videos. Occasionally.

    • @dennissvitak5475
      @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

      @@WeatherWithTravis - I have stated, hundreds of times, that experience is all about pattern recognition. You have to learn to pay attention to the alarm bells from previous blown forecasts. Trust me..I have thousands of them.

  • @picknponies
    @picknponies 2 дня назад +5

    These west to east storms for WV-DC/Metro never pan out as far as snow goes. I call BS on anything over 3 inches in accumulation.

    • @jasonsmith373
      @jasonsmith373 2 дня назад +2

      Hopefully you're wrong this time, but you ARE right.🤷‍♂️

    • @NWLegacyChannel
      @NWLegacyChannel 2 дня назад +1

      DC has already been called off. Its just gonna be about 1 inch of snow with rain for the rest of Monday. sucks

    • @BrandoMan1328
      @BrandoMan1328 2 дня назад

      @@NWLegacyChannel where did you see that? I'm still seeing about 6 inches in DC, Baltimore etc.

    • @BrandoMan1328
      @BrandoMan1328 2 дня назад +1

      I could see like 6 inches but like 12 to 15, I'd be shocked.

    • @NWLegacyChannel
      @NWLegacyChannel 2 дня назад +2

      It still says 3-6 inches for me but Im referring to the recent models like the GFS and NAM seem to show it just being mostly sleet and freezing rain. I think we will get 1 inch. The official forecasts i dont think have updated yet but youll see the downgrade tomorrow

  • @stlhd4lyfe1
    @stlhd4lyfe1 2 дня назад

    Northern summit county Ohio getting plenty of Lake Effect all day yesterday and into the AM today.

  • @FishingNature87
    @FishingNature87 2 дня назад +1

    Set up after this storm with those southern low pressures with northern energy dropping down has me thinking a similar situation like 1993 blizzard could set up next week

    • @lincmerc1581
      @lincmerc1581 2 дня назад +2

      @@FishingNature87 I remember that in Birmingham. It was surreal.

  • @williamtennal
    @williamtennal 2 дня назад +4

    NWS Springfield Missouri posted "travel on Sunday is highly discouraged"

    • @Yanks4life99
      @Yanks4life99 2 дня назад

      Have fun with the storm if u love it! Enjoy it while it lasts! I saw snow in interior northeast from lake effect and it was fun. So have fun

    • @kygoers
      @kygoers 2 дня назад

      Iv been trying to find out how it will be here in springfield. With us being right on the line basically it’s hard to tell how it will be here.

  • @emanualholcombe6422
    @emanualholcombe6422 2 дня назад

    GOOD STUFF AS USUAL. LOVING THAT NAM TOTALS MAP. HOPING THAT IT CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER, IF THATS POSSIBLE

  • @jasonsmith373
    @jasonsmith373 2 дня назад +3

    Back in '87 or '88 here in eastern WV, we got a similar storm - got about 3 inches of snow, then like 5 inches of sleet. I've never seen that much sleet at one time since, lol.

    • @DebraMooney-y3n
      @DebraMooney-y3n 2 дня назад +1

      I remember that. I am a West Virginian.

    • @joshbunnerwvarmwrestler
      @joshbunnerwvarmwrestler 2 дня назад

      I'm not old enough to know of that storm, but I have pictures of me from the storm of 93. Here in WV.

    • @jasonsmith373
      @jasonsmith373 2 дня назад

      @joshbunnerwvarmwrestler I was 17 - it snowed 4 inches an hour at times. Some of the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded locally. It was an incredible storm. ('92-'93 was a good winter in general.)

  • @marywegrzyn506
    @marywegrzyn506 2 дня назад +1

    Hi, could you please tell us whats gonna be happening in South Eastern, MI????

  • @dennissvitak5475
    @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

    FWIW, I live near St. Louis..and this is a back-side snow event. Freezing rain/ice pellets advancing farther north than expected...and waiting for the cold air to collapse back behind it. Interestingly, models keep St. Louis in the deformation zone for the entirety of the storm....so Monday snows will be the majority of the accumulating stuff, for eastern Missouri.

  • @mikewhatley8237
    @mikewhatley8237 2 дня назад

    Hello Travis..we wound up getting a good bit of snow flurries with some accumulation today in western North Carolina..it is showing warmer air and just rain on Monday..I'm thinking western North Carolina may be colder than what the models are expecting..may wind up being just rain..or ice or snow..it is very cold here with a lot of moisture in the air currently

  • @SimplyDavid78
    @SimplyDavid78 2 дня назад

    The set up of the first system reminds me the 2015 blizzard in Chicago. Feb 1 and 2 2015. Go look at the maps. Happy weekend.

  • @EmmyPierz-ek7hi
    @EmmyPierz-ek7hi 2 дня назад

    Sadly, people will NOT heed these warnings, drive their cars
    in the ice and freezing rain, crash, get injured, causing US
    Intelligent folks, who are smart
    enough to stay home, HIGHER
    CAR INSURANCE RATES. CB

  • @Denny-uw1on
    @Denny-uw1on 2 дня назад

    Are the latest models strengthening the shortwave in the Ohio Valley ? If it is strengthening, this system is going to trend north, if not, it will go south.

  • @FishingNature87
    @FishingNature87 2 дня назад

    Have you seen the negative tilt of the jet stream as the system is coming into pacific coast . I think the Nam is picking up on what I have been thinking . When the temperatures are in Low 20s and it snows Heavily snow piles up so fast . Fluffy snow is way different from wet snow . Living in the Appalachians of Western Maryland that is always first thing I look at is what is the temperature going to be when it snows. If it is below 29-28 and it’s going to be 20-24 degrees the snow absolutely piles up . Small systems give 3-6 when that happens and models showing 12 hours of snow . I’m predicting at least 12 inches in western Maryland if it is all snow .

  • @joewiese4174
    @joewiese4174 2 дня назад

    Either 1980, 81, or ,82 North Missouri got over 1/2 inch of ice on top of snow from a storm like this. Then there was 1973 with feet of snow and blizzard conditions. This will shut several areas down for days. It is just a matter of the exact track it takes.

    • @Kay-pq1uo
      @Kay-pq1uo 2 дня назад +1

      @@joewiese4174 I was at Benedictine College (Atchison KS on MO River) in fall 1982 as a freshman. I remember that ice storm. The trees were covered in ice and ‘cracked’ branches for days. I’m just more worried about the extreme temperatures

    • @joewiese4174
      @joewiese4174 2 дня назад

      @@Kay-pq1uo This storm will be MUCH worse than 82 because of the temps. I was 8 years old in 82 and we only missed one day of school. The temps in that storm and after stayed mostly in the 20. We had a lot of fun on that ice because it was warm enough. I think for the snow, it will be closer to the high end and that will cause big shut downs for this storm. This storm will shut some places down for a week to 10 days because rock salt will get to cold to activate. On a side note. Any time spent on the Mo. River is always good.

  • @linkrules32
    @linkrules32 2 дня назад

    12:37 south texas more snow then arkansas, weird!

  • @tombartholomew75
    @tombartholomew75 2 дня назад

    Trying to find the website for the GFS Ensembles. Can someone provide a link or website name

    • @Yanks4life99
      @Yanks4life99 2 дня назад

      Tropical tidbits for gefs ensemble(free) or weather bell for bigger ensembles up to 50 models in 1 which costs 30 per month or300 per year. I’m sure there are others but that’s what I have heard of

    • @tombartholomew75
      @tombartholomew75 2 дня назад

      @ thank you

  • @veronicaaaaa3430
    @veronicaaaaa3430 2 дня назад

    Wet snow squall this afternoon in SW Va.. slick roads this evening

  • @petechaklas6168
    @petechaklas6168 2 дня назад +1

    Well this was our chance for NC. Our chances are over. Like always

  • @linkrules32
    @linkrules32 2 дня назад

    Hopefully the deep south can have cold air aloft like kansas

  • @FishingNature87
    @FishingNature87 2 дня назад

    We had thunder snow in western Maryland today blizzard conditions many points in the day. These models aren’t taking into consideration the temperatures are going to be in low 20s in western Maryland northern Wv during the snow . The snow totals with fluffy snow will be way higher than forecasted if we get the moisture models are forecasting .

  • @robertbrown9927
    @robertbrown9927 2 дня назад

    Great presentation; comprehensive, detailed but not overburdening so us common people can understand. I was in NORAD in the 70's and always kept in touch with the weather office to assist with running daily operations 24/7. We didn't have all the modeling there is now, nor did we have Doppler radar so we relied on the forecasters to advise us on conditions from the ground up and the changes we could expect during missions. I learned to appreciate and respect our meteorologists because they gave us a third dimension to our two dimensional world of surveillance and height radar. I'm retired as you are but enjoy the vast amount of information that feeds in every minute to the conditions around us. I don't think the younger generation appreciates the enormous value of Doppler radar in the modern world of Meteorology. Maybe you can relate? Rob in Goldsboro, N.C. (Home of Seymour-Johnson AFB).

    • @dennissvitak5475
      @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад +1

      The agency you coordinated with was the Alaskan Forecast Unit, at Elmendorf. I know...I ran it from 1991-1994. We were Alaska NORAD Region's weather support unit.

    • @robertbrown9927
      @robertbrown9927 2 дня назад

      @@dennissvitak5475 And I was stationed at Cape Lisburne AFS on the northwest tip of Alaska, 1974 to 1975 where we had some of the most extreme weather conditions I have ever seen. AAC was my favorite command that I worked in during my career even though it was remote duty.

  • @ALT-k8l
    @ALT-k8l 2 дня назад

    The national weather service shows pittsburgh in the 12 inch range and less ice

  • @quincyvenable2279
    @quincyvenable2279 2 дня назад

    Hey Man, bring that snow to Albany, New York! Lol

  • @SILAS-y7j
    @SILAS-y7j 2 дня назад

    yeah it just snowed around 0.4 inches and it was very epic it was near phili.

  • @robertwood3970
    @robertwood3970 2 дня назад

    1977 all over again.

  • @trulylynn9941
    @trulylynn9941 2 дня назад

    Watch the trails in the sky!

  • @TravisCrickmore
    @TravisCrickmore 2 дня назад

    Hi from west virginia charleston are we looking at a snow storm or ice storm????

    • @Yanks4life99
      @Yanks4life99 2 дня назад +1

      Probably both. I’m going to study meteorology and models show ice and snow for west virginia

    • @DebraMooney-y3n
      @DebraMooney-y3n 2 дня назад +1

      Sounds like both.

  • @jamesdavidson676
    @jamesdavidson676 2 дня назад

    Hello Travis looks like a nice decent size snowstorm for the Jersey Shore.

  • @dorexmx152
    @dorexmx152 2 дня назад

    We had about an inch of accumulation in the dc area today

  • @IloveYehusha09876
    @IloveYehusha09876 2 дня назад +6

    I recently found you..I really like you...there is something about your spirit i like. You seem like a calm kind genuine gentle person.

    • @mattmyers4832
      @mattmyers4832 2 дня назад +1

      Travis is amazing man. Prayers for righteousness for you🙏

    • @IloveYehusha09876
      @IloveYehusha09876 2 дня назад +1

      @mattmyers4832 aww amen🙏🏽🙌🏽

  • @KnoxFirewood-x1q
    @KnoxFirewood-x1q 2 дня назад

    How much so do you think Knox county Ohio will get more or less than a foot

  • @NWLegacyChannel
    @NWLegacyChannel 2 дня назад

    DC snow has been called off

  • @linkrules32
    @linkrules32 2 дня назад

    Great videos minus th editing

  • @dennissvitak5475
    @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

    Takes a very specific set of circumstances for an official blizzard. I don't think that this will occur..and if it does, it will be highly local, and very modest in duration. Blizzards have a duration requirement as well.

    • @WeatherWithTravis
      @WeatherWithTravis  2 дня назад +6

      35mph and visibility less than 1/4 miles for three hours. Possible, NWS Topeka: "Once this transition occurs, snow will come down fast and furious with snowfall rates of one to
      two inches an hour. Some thundersnow is even possible with this extremely dynamic system. These rates, combined with wind gusts to 45 mph will lead to significant blowing and drifting snow. Whiteout conditions are possible. A Blizzard Warning may be needed for Sunday afternoon and evening. "

    • @dennissvitak5475
      @dennissvitak5475 2 дня назад

      @@WeatherWithTravis - Sounds about right. My recollection was for heavy snow, six hours duration, 40 mph, and "visibility near zero." Having said that, this was ... 40+ years ago, when I taught severe weather analysis and forecasting for the Department of Defense.

  • @LifeofDeVonsha
    @LifeofDeVonsha 2 дня назад

    I'm hoping Northeast Illinois get a good snow. 😩

  • @Nemura12
    @Nemura12 2 дня назад

    The disapoment continues to crow in NC 😂

  • @Crankinstien
    @Crankinstien 2 дня назад

    No snow in Oklahoma

  • @LifeofDeVonsha
    @LifeofDeVonsha 2 дня назад

  • @ThatOneGuy01
    @ThatOneGuy01 2 дня назад +2

    I'm glad that missed Se michigan! I know winter just started, but I'm ready for spring! Thanks for the update.

  • @Yanks4life99
    @Yanks4life99 2 дня назад +2

    Bring this storm to New York please! I have 5 tests upcoming. I want a snow day! I want to avoid 5 tests for at least a day. Please bring snow to New York!