Ukraine's Offensive Looks Like A Diversion
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- Опубликовано: 10 сен 2024
- Ukraine's Kursk operation looks more and more like a diversion. It's not clear what the other or larger objective might be but the standard explanations right now don't make a lot of sense, it feels like this is phase one of something larger.
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Tracking audio might be off, my apologies. Had to hard restart the computer last night and lost all previous settings. Thought I had it back to normal but reading a few comments can tell it’s not there yet. Will be tinkering this afternoon to get it sorted out so next video doesn’t have the issue. Apologies again and thank you all for your continued support!
Thank God, I thought my earphones broke
Thank God, I thought my earphones broke
It seems to me that just about every time they get a major update in tech that they try to exploit it. Just got the Vipers so it makes sense for _something_ to occur. No word about them being used in Kursk area so I suspect that whenever they finally move whatever chess pieces that are needed for phase 2 that a big push with ATACMS & 16’s.
@@davisdelp8131same I was really annoyed these things are brand new… still great video
Preston, restart your PC from time to time. It needs a kind of refresh.
Also, do more funny stuff with Habitual Linecrosser AKA: "Will you intercept me?" 😊
I love how you own how "what I'm saying could be completely wrong". No one's an expert in predicting the future. But I extremely value your perspective.
No one can predict the future, least of all economists
I often disagree with Preston's assessments, but he always presents the data in a clear, honest way and as outsiders, we're all just guessing and hoping.
Soldiers value precision , politicians on the other hand ......
Ah yes "Kursk". My 104yo Grandpa here in Germany fought there. He also follows the News and obviously supports Ukraine but he is totally flabbergasted that he can watch TV seeing Places being fought over he fought over in WW2.
Prost & Cheers from Berchtesgaden in the Bavarian Alps
So your grandpa was a Nazi lol
@@Howtohandlemebaby8173by that logic russia also fought with nazis
The packt with germany with which they invaded poland
Must be wild. Wish my gramps was here so I could ask him about that aswell.
What was it like for him fighting on the other side?
Ah yes, gramps good stories about back in the days when he was a nazi.
1. Forces Russia to expend resources they had allocated elsewhere to counter the incursion.
2. Increases the Russian economic cost of prosecuting their ‘Special Military Operation’ than had been budgeted.
3. Forces Russia to reinforce their whole border so this does not happen again.
4. Forces the West to commit more resources than the current measured flow, especially if Russia responds with a massive offensive.
5. Goes ‘all in’ with the current U.S. administration to support the war effort before the election and secure more support than would otherwise be offered by either side.
Bullshit. Expanding the front line is in Russia's favor. The US threatened Russia saying that if they kept expanding the fonrtline they would give green light to the Ukrainians for using American made weapons deep in Russian territory. But now, the Ukrainians have expanded the front line themselves. It doesn't makes any sense, other than the need for a morale boost. It fact, the US tried to stop the offensive in the days before the attack.
And I don't see how attacking Russian soil is gonna increase the support from abroad, since they disobeyed the US and have created divided opinions among their allies on the attack
Takes territory to steal Russian border defenses to use in the eastern front
All that seems reasonable. Also Russia is over half way through their tank reserves from the USSR. They were probably planning on moving to defense but now they have to stay on offense.
Also if it makes it less likely that Russia will accept the Trump peace plan of making the current borders the official borders.
Damn.. this sounds spot on.
Correct, Remember it's a war of attrition now, not land.
ATM fighting within Russia provides better bang for buck towards Ukraine's War goals.
Russia's movements within Ukraine have already been slowed to a snail pace
Sun Tzu. Strike where the Enemy is Not.
Exactly. And now Russia has to fight to get it back, putting Russian land into ruins instead of Ukrainian land. I'd call that a win.
Maginot Line
...
French were real proud about their impenetrable line..
Till the Germans just went around it.
LMAO Then the Germans made the same mistake with the Siegfied line.. Which the US just punched right through by covering sections up with dirt.
I think Ukraine had a number of well trained and well equipped brigades ready for the 2024 summer offensive, and they kept staring at the frontlines and didn't want to waste this force on a repeat of the 2023 zaporizhia offensive. Then someone said the russian border isn't half as well fortified, and then they said 'F it, we ball'.
In a way it almost seems like an extension of the attrition of Russia that Ukraine is trying to achieve this year: they don't really care about the territory, but this gives them a chance to inflict losses on the russians.
But u dont seriously think russia will be depleted before ukraine right? This aint 'winnable' for ukraine they can only hold on and survive
The problem with that is the Ukrainians are also taking rather significant losses and because they are In hostile territory they are more vulnerable than usual.
And Russia has the resources to withstand the loss, Ukraine is already struggling with manpower so throwing away several thousand men seems pointless without a good clear objective
@@InglouriousFrogssurvival is the entire reason they are fighting.
@@islandwills2778They hit back at a bully who thought had everything going their way.
The only way Ukraine can win this war is making it too costly for the potential benefit. Russia could be so stretched thin that they can no longer defend their land from anyone. They keep talking about the West but do you really think they'd want that fight right now?
@@KhronogiI call BS… They’re fighting because they want to join NATO, that’s the only stumbling block to peace earlier on… Now, negotiations are off the table.
10:30 Ukrainian here with some relatives in Russia. I'd like to respectfully disagree on this point. Russian mainland lost is worth far more than whatever Ukrainian land gained, I'd say by a factor of 100:1. It's all about PR. In Russia (as far as my relatives go), nobody really gives a hoot about any of the Ukrainian lands especially if Kremlin just stops mentioning it entirely. But they'll all talk about the 1 sq km of Russian land lost in the process. Again, it comes down to PR optics.
Yeh but how much does the average Russian know about whats happening in the Kursk region? Im pretty sure everything they get is filtered and played down.
Out of all the hypothesis I've heard, Ryan McBeth's struck home. Attacking Kursk requires the Russian army to commit troops that would not otherwise be committed to combat. The troops around there are mostly drawn from Moscow or nearby. This is something Putin has deliberately avoided. His power base comes from Moscow and he has avoided major conscription that affects Moscow. This offensive means they have to get involved. A few thousand casualties or POWs might just stir up enough anger in Moscow to put Putin in a very difficult position. People will start asking why so many troops are being held in reserve when the country is being invaded.
You'd better look after your own household while you have it... Otherwise, one day you will wake up in the CALIPHATE😂
Now with that offensive it got me thinking maybe Ukraine has an actual plan instead of defending for the rest of the war
Seems like that's Syrsky's plan, unlike his predecessor
Or they could just be playing another PR war like they did in 2022 while hiding the truth about how badly they’re losing.
@@Penigale "if I was Syrsky, I'd be under moscow right about now" - Prigozhin
Facts:
1. Look at the areas of occupation in ration to major freeways and railways. They're not trying to occupy these, but they're all well within artillery and himars range. This effectively makes these logistical routes offlimits
2. They're not trying to take the actual roads, instead building up defensible positions where ever geography is most permissable
3. They're continuing South and East, and my guess is that they will continue, perhaps actually taking Belgorod and beyond, in order to choke off logistics from Rostov-on-Don.
4. This region, within 20 - 30km from the border is the soft underbelly of Russia, and takes all of the existing Russian logistical routes off the table.
5. Without logistics, the Russian army will starve from lack of fuel, water, food, and ammunition.
Spot on. They also move the range on their long range drones further into russia. Look out oil refinaries!
Yes. Also I think the huge psychological concept that Russia was invaded, and the world did not end. Similar for the Russian population itself, which has now seen their army and putin in weakness. I imagine it's a land grab as well, and hopefully they intended the logistics effect too.
Conscripts are not allowed to fight unless they’re on Russian soil, For Russia to take this back, they would have to send in the sons of Russians who are 18 to 20 years old. In the Donbas they have been fighting with mercenaries & prosooners
This is about forcing politically sensitive casualties, while also bringing reality to break the informational monopoly the Russian state has over it peoples.
The fog of war is far too thick for large, encompassing speculation , since Ukraine has been social media and radio silent for the most part more than they ever have ever seen in this war.
That's my impression too.
They would need waaaaaaaay way more personnel and equipment to have at least some chance of taking Belgorod. With the forces the Ukrainians have committed, they will be able to take some villages, and MAYBE, hold them. This offensive makes no sense strategically, other than to humiliate Russia
No, it is not a diversion, it's deciding where the battlefield is, how can this be so hard to comprehend? In Russia Ukraine can conduct mobile warfare and they do not have to worry about protecting civilians and infrastructure. In Russia, the Ukranians can straight out direct the movement of Russian troops.
Thats one way to look at it. If this offensive is eventually planned for conversion to a defensive position, then they get to pick the ground, and presumably Russia wouldnt want to employ their usual scortched earth tactics trying to dislodge them. (I hope for the Russian civilians sake that is true.)
Though UA haven't had much practice they have to think they are better at manoevre warfare than RU conscripts, border guards and the Rosguard. I suspect UA will keep the defence very flexible trying to avoid falling back onto static lines that can just get hammered by superior firepower. It will be a different fight to UA's advantages e.g. proper IFV's not golf carts!
Gotta have something to negotiate with. Better to bring the war to them its been the us doctrine for 100 plus years.@stvrob6320
Whatever other factors are meant to be in play, Ukraine is at the very basic level taking command of the OODA Loop, forcing russia to be reacting to AFU actions, not being able to plan and push how and where they want to act.
Good thing we have you here to let us know exactly what's going on! Did Zalenski tell you the plans himself!?
So we are 900+ days into this war and Ukraine is still standing and had a lot of victories.
They pushed Russians back in Kyiv, took land back in Kharkiv and Kherson and defeated Russian fleet in the Black sea and attrition Russian 3 to 1 at low estimates.
But somehow pundits are still not giving Ukraine the credit is deserves. 🤨
The past year it's been a slow, and grinding battle backwards for Ukraine. I really hope the progress by Russian forces in the east finally stops, but they have a lot of manpower and artillery to make brute force gains. One thing that Russia has trouble with is adapting to new tactics, it takes them a few months due to the rigid structure of their military. It'll be interesting to see what happens next.
@@Saltedcoilhorrendously down bad the year or so has been but let’s see what happens from now on but on other fronts it’s still the same depressing situation or they have collapsed such as situation in New York
@@Saltedcoila lot of rumor this is a trap but idk with Russians still driving in massive cope coveys out in open space I kinda doubt that , but then again this country in question is notorious for doing scorched earth on its own people in order to prevent/ deny resources for opforce or lure in said enemy
Thank you for this comment I have been waiting to see if someone would say this. They deserve way more credit than they're getting. Russia cannot invade the whole of Ukraine, does not have air superiority, does not have superiority in the black sea, and has sustained massive losses the would needs to recognize this and give Ukraine everything that it needs.
@@Saltedcoilall the more reason to open new front. Russia takes a long time to establish logistics and get the upper hand they need to grind out territory.
Really question is can Russia keep this up for another year or two to gain the territory they want. I don’t know for sure. but I do know is it will take them a decade to recover from this war at best.
West is the only winner in this war as they are getting everything they want for min losses of old equipment
Everyone is asking "Why Kursk" but not one person has asked "How is Kursk" :(
Not doing so hot these days I hear
F***ed.. it is f***ed.
Mr. Stark, I don't feel so good
hows newyork🙈 hows andriivka direction 🙈. remember all the hype of robotyne 🙈. expectation:odessa 3 weeks, reality:small 200 person village after driving though mine fields, artillery and heavy fighting just to lose it
Or "Who is Kursk"
My bet is they're just doing what they can.
1. It shows the world they're still capable of progressing. Meaning other countries are more likely to keep supporting.
2. Boost the morale of their own troops by retaliation on enemy soil.
3. Keep enemy on alert and undermine the confidence in the regime (as was pointed out).
A political objective, rather and a strategic one.
It could have ended in two weeks provided enough western support, but now it requires Sun Tzu wisdom
@@bigcheese781 1) PR stunt
2) Boosting the morale by taking troops from other parts of the front for PR stunt?
3) Boosts Russian morale and gives them extra reasons to join the army
It's more than a diversion. It accomplishes or aims to accomplish multiple goals. In places where the border was jagged, moving forward allows Ukraine to shorten their defense lines. It undermines Putin, because the stated reason for the "special military operation" was that it was necessary for the security of the Russian people, but now it can be seen that it has actually made them less safe. It creates a dilemma for Putin where he either has to pull forces from other parts of the front or scratch together other forces to try to drive Ukraine out. This gives Ukraine time to fan out as far as possible with smaller mobile forces while the main force fortifies positions in the territory they occupy. It also serves as a morale booster for Ukraine.
Well said.
To my mind nearly all the benefits of this and there are many more, are all political. It is primaily a politically motivated use of force. As indeed all such force should be.
But couldn’t Putin just send pmc contractors to Kursk or even Wagner forces or other contractors so that he dosent have to move his forces from the front line. I want Ukraine to succeed but it’s a thought that came to my head
@@gamesmovienation3516 No, as most PMC been effectively collapsed into regular forces and Wagner exists no more, except in name as a shadow of former self.
I’m guessing Kursk gives Ukraine a window into how future offensives could play out, I don’t think it’s a coincidence this offensive happened basically right after the F-16s arrived.
EXACTLY. Ukraine has air superiority, and the Kremlin's air force is staying away and quite useless.
Question, F16s can’t be used as bombers?
@@TheVanpablo79they are a multi role fighter. Can be used for air to air and air to ground
@@TheVanpablo79I mean yea and no
They can bomb targets on the ground yea
But can they carry enofh. For effective large scale bombing campaigns ? No
It takes 2.5 years to train tank crews, etc, in NATO combined warfare. We started training Ukrainian tank crews 2.5 years ago.
The kursk invasion has generated 100K+ internal refugees. If AFU keeps this up Moscow will be overrun by its own citizens fleeing the outlying regions. Just this one effect justifies the invasion!
Dude, your analysis is laughable. How big is Russia?
Put the crack pipe down bro... SMH
no facts on refugees whatsoever
@@airon89toyota no, he is right. The ouest of Russia is where almost all the population is.
Russia is big, yes... But also very void. 100'000 to 200'000 people flying as also a great advantage : break the propaganda from Moscow and force the Russian civilians to see reality.
Yes, Russian win. Slowly. Painfully. Losing 3 man for each Ukrainians soldiers they kill. Wasting load of ammunition and tanks for almost nothing.
What the point?
@@ombrepourpre7562 y'all really believe that attacking Russian soil will turn the Russian people against Putin? Stalin was 100x worse than Putin and no one overthrew him. The Russians are more likely to rally behind Putin because you just made this personal.
This seems like less of a diversion than a "fork" (in chess terms). Ukraine gives Russia a dilemma: a number of bad outcomes that they have to choose between, risking other salients if they react, or losing more territory and embarrassment if they do not.
Since russian forces figthing in kursk arent reinforcements from a place elsewhere but dedicated north group forces out of the belgarod region there hasnt been any real impact on the eastern and southerfront
I think ukraine realised that it doesnt matter how much they reinforce the frontline becaus they will still lose, so they just opend a new front where the russians where clearing mines for their own offensive actions but the ukrainians surprised them
This will probably give them some leverage in expected peace talks
@@kuunoooo7293 It isn't that UA thinks it will lose in Donbas. It is what is the point of winning there? It doesn't force RU to the negotiating table. Krim would. Kursk is certainly something either RU sorts out beforehand AT WHATEVER COST or is very much in play during talks. Donbas, it is irrelevant to both sides (RU doesn't need it except to control UA via Minsk Accords; UA doesn't need something that might be better considered RU when it take Belgorod which histoically was UA! LoLz).
So, then obviously Donbas isn't pari passu Kursk/Belgorod Oblasts. Suspect that the value is more like 1km of RU Oblasts is at least equal to 10km of the Donbas.
The deeper point may also be that UA is prepared to trade these lines As now they are economically ravage, denuded of ethnic UA populations are requiring hundred of billlions of aid that would be better left as a hinderance to RU than as something UA wants to take on during its own post-war reconstruction. So, there isn't any point in going down to the last man for some Godforsaken hamlet out there.
In Chess terms, Putin has been walking into a Fools Mate since 24/2/22!
Ukraine probably has a plan for every one of those bad outcomes
This is my take as well. They can't win via the status quo so they need to force a shift in dynamics. It would be interesting if all the talk about manpower shortages were a feint and a larger counter offensive is in the chamber but I doubt that. This is going to be about opportunism
Ukraine is definitely up to something. They don’t make a move out of impulse. It is going to be VERY interesting seeing how this and other actions we are not aware of play out.
For us, Ukrainians, it's more like "will we be executed in camps, or accede to the civilized world" issue
Thank you for your support so much!
@@jamesonlowe7602 Ukraine made impulse attack on Krinky and plenty of attacks on Belgorod previously
@@MIchaelSybibut you got executed on the borders with Europe, lmao.
Russia gave you citizenship, but your country closed borders :)
@@user-ee6nb9ec6v Vanya, russia demolished Mariupol and many cities to the ashes, if not russia this war would not exist and we would live a happy life. Who are you lying to, yourself?
As a former NCO, with some strategic and tactical knowledge myself. I’m with you Preston, I think something bigger is cooking. Maybe this is Ukraine’s attempt at a Tet Offensive style turning point in the war, like how U.S. claimed everything was going well and to planned then the Tet Offensive kicked off and flipped that narrative on its head. By bringing the war to Russian soil this will upend the Kremlin’s Narrative that Russia is handily winning and everything in the War in Ukraine is going exactly to plan. Kind of hard to continue that narrative when Ukraine takes and now holds 1000 Square Kilometers of your territory and pulled that off in mere days.
Ты глупец если так думаешь. Но ты простой американский сержант и не можешь думать как русский. Поэтому все что ты написал, не имеет и намека на то, как будут развиваться события.
I firmly believe the Crimea is the ultimate goal. Putin's entire campaign will fail if this took place.
@@user-po2yt5ub6mcope 😂
As a fellow OSINT bro, maybe there are no military objectives, sounds ridiculous but maybe they’re all political objectives, restore morale at home, definitely happened. Humiliate the Russians, definitely happened. Show the west that ‘no, Russia won’t press the big red button because a Bradley drove over a Russian road’, maybe happening. And maybe the big prize; there’s a large Russian oil pipeline thing that’s a major exporter to the EU, not sure the proper details but it’s notable enough to be mentioned…guess who’s in control of that? Where’s the money go? Hm
I’m just an OSINT bro I’m not claiming anything as factual, but objectives need not be objective (if you see what I’m saying)
No military objectives? Seriously? Well, then a boxer hitting his opponent when opportunity raises also has no boxing objectives.
Exactly! I think the same way. But I'm not sure if a morale boost is worth all the personnel and resources wasted in the offensive. You could have help stabilize the eastern front for months with those resources.
it is definitely not related to energy infrastructure. The Sudzha gas metering station only directs gas that goes into pipelines that go through Ukraine. There are infinite points where Ukraine could stop that gas flow from Russia to Western Europe if they wanted to.
That pipe runs through Ukraine. They could have destroyed it at any time since the war began. Why would they travel to Russia to do anything with it? I don't think it has anything to do with that at all outside of being an embarrassment ton lose the station.
Eh.. that pipeline goes through Ukraine, so no.
Biggest leverage in that area is either the Kursk NPP or Kursk town itself, realistic or not.
My guess, based on Sun Tzu.
What are the 5 principles of war in Sun Tzu?
1. The Moral Law, or discipline and unity of command. Ukraine with its super tight opsec and a major surprise has demonstrated this.
2. Heaven, or weather factors. Rasputitsa, the time mud prevents mobile warfare is coming and this operation is timed against it depriving mobile warfare from Russia when Ukraine has maximally exploited it itself, before Ukrainian culmination.
3. Earth, or the terrain. The areas selected are the best for mobile warfare with no much forests, mountains, heavy urban terrains or fortifications on the way.
4. The Commander; Syrskyi and his helper Budanov are quite cunning having lured Russia to a false sense of invincibility which so fooled Gerasimov he ignored troop concentrations.
5. Method and discipline, which included logistics and supply. This is a drastic new gear unleashing experienced mobile warfare with novel tactics using modified drone swarms and electronic warfare never seen used this way, combined by maximising the mobile warfare not seen with efficient Western gear, combined with use of troops in Russian uniforms, all in a brutally efficient combined warfare achieving even local control of skies also thanks to GUR lead radar and air defense attrition.
The result will be a shocking land grab and cutting of Russian logistical routes (remember Western Kherson 2022) combined with chaos on the Russian side thanks to mobility of the warfare Russia does not master, giving a real boost to the strategic goal of winning the attrition game by the time Putin's Soviet stock piles of armor and wealth funds run out by mid 2025.
I suspect there is more than 1 reason for this. It could also be that this turned out better than the Ukrainians suspected and they just pushed in further.
August 12, 2000 is the 24th anniversary of the KURSK submarine catastrophe. Zelensky has commented that Putins' reign began with the Kursk catastrophe and will end with the Kursk catastrophe.
A reminder to Russians of Putins failures., and anniversaries are important markers for Putin.
Putin would just be replaced by hardliners that would glass Ukraine at a moment's notice
It is definitely making problems for Putin and it forces Putin to re allocate troops to address the Kursk problem 💯
Yeah but not from the front. They are taking them from Kaliningrad and so on.
@@nukularpictures from what I have seen most of the Russian troops that are defending Kursk are Russian naval infantry units, which are that best Russia has to offer. 🥱
Except Russia is near a strategic success in being within 10 miles of Pokrovsk which could collapse the entire logistics for the Donetsk and they're not slowing down. There's no evidence of a slowdown in Russian advances in the Donbass since the Kursk offensive.
No trenches, no dragon teeth, no razor wire fronts, no minefields,...way to go. Go Ukraine!
@@UniversalAwareness101 fog of war is way too thick to even know if that’s true stop speculation just give it some time
They built two defensive lines just a few years back for about 15billion rubles... not much worth if being guarded by conscripts and achmad battalion who either fled or surrendered
@@BruceAlrighty1991of course it's true. You think Russia will put minefields in the carpark of the local shops for locals to dodge? Haha😂
Now they are Ukrainian defences
NAFO loser
One more thought: Russia will have much more difficulty retaking their territory because their main method of fighting in ukraine is total scorched earth. They completley destroy every city they take, and even the territory around it, wich will be difficult to do inside of russia. Sure they can just blast everything like in the Donbass and blame it on ukraine, but the russians are not THAT stupid, and their military will need to get more innovative now if they dont want to embarass themselves any further. Russian cities burned to the ground by their own forces are not a good picture for a regime that supposedly does everything to "protect russians"
They would just blame the scorched earth on the Ukrainians. And the populace would believe them.
No, they will absolutely flatten their own cities and blame it on ukraine for bieng there. Human life means nothing to russia. Only the people in power matter.
They aren't deliberately fighting scorched earth, it's a sign of poor military leadership, they need their overwhelming artillery advantage to take ground, the issue with arty party is you flatten the infrastructure too, if all you conquer is ruins what have you really won?
This whole war has been an exercise in the futility of conflict.
russia will 100% demolish settlements in Kursk if they can/need to, they're sending the refugees to occupied Zaphorizhna and gave them 100 USD, they don't give a shit about their own people.
Russia is absolutely going to flatten those towns. It's not a democracy. No one will complain.
The danger for Putin is if he has to do another conscription. Russians do care about conscription.
I don't understand why this is a confusing move by Ukraine.
The objective is force Russia to commit their Kharkiv offensive reserves. Not to pull Russians all the way from Donbas, or weaken the Kherson front, etc.
The only Russian combat forces, ready and equipped near Kursk to quickly respond, are the reserves allocated to the nearby Kharkiv offensive.
There may be secondary goals and benefits to this particular location, but the primary goal is to force Russia to commit their Kharkiv reserves. Without these reserves, the Kharkiv offensive is effectively over. The Russians in Kharkiv are now vulnerable to a counter attack and encirclement, because their reserves are committed elsewhere and unable to react either to a counter attack or any offensive breakthrough in Kharkiv. These reserves are now forced to go on the attack, in the open, at a time and place of Ukraine's choosing.
Love This Video & Respect you so much because of it Preston! Much Respect!!
Thank you for your service. Thank you for explaining it to folks that may not understand. Thank you for being a good person. Happy ness and love to you family. Respect you.love frm Michigan USA 🇺🇲💜.
Although I understand this and I'm not the expert here, I would like to point to Tim Marshall's book "Prisoners of Geography" and the part where he mentions that Putin's legacy (from his perspective) has to be one of gaining land and rebuilding the Soviet Union. So, although I highly doubt that Ukraine want the land, losing land as Putin gets older is about the biggest nightmare because his legacy could be one of losing modern Russia's land. The land he gained would be almost insignificant if it comes at the cost of current Russian land.
Having said that, I doubt it is the aim. If it was, they would have also brought in equipment to entrench like Russia did in Crimea.
The advance into Kursk coincides with Ukraine receiving f-16s which may be significant. I've heard lots of commentators saying the f-16s won't make a huge difference but it wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine use them in a creative way that we're not expecting. They're up to something and Russia is on the back foot. 🇺🇦 ❤
At this point we should expect it from Ukraine. They have been incredibly resilient, brave, and resourceful.
They are not bringing F-16s near the frontline
Their is a minor benifit to keep Russian aviation away from the Salient as the F-16 has long range air to air missiles which out range Russians and can bully them away from the border.
Too early. Also west has not played and supplied munitions
Ukraine is also building trenches so i dont think they plan on leaving anytime soon.
I made similar comments on the sun news earlier, they are rotating the troops in rotation and advancing with bulldozers and supplies
Basically preston we are all guessing but fair play Ukraine 🇺🇦
The Ukraine war needs a SportsCenter commentary panel to keep up.
I think it looks like a successful diversion, and they're trying to figure out what to do with plan a now
It would be successful if Russia diverted forces from the East. They didn't. In fact it lead to increase in signing military contracts.
Russia knows it and theu know that they have more soldiers than ukraine
@@Feffdc Increased signing of Russian contracts in 2024 is not from Z patriotism. Drastically increased pay promises and fear of involuntary mobilization are more likely.
Actually pull up today's newspapers and you'll see that they are pulling troops out of Ukraine
And, fighting on Russian soil means conscripts can be used, they couldn't be used in Ukraine. But as we see, the conscript quality sucks. So take that as you will
As for the increased in signups, apparently Russia has ceased throwing people from the signing ceremony to the front line, it's going to take at least 2 or 3 months before those people show up. But it's real.
@@Feffdcwho told u there is such an increse? Solovyov?
There are 2 points, the first of which you talked about :
1. The negotiating table talks advantage
2. Russia has dug in in Ukraine and left most of their borders nearly undefended!
The Ukrainian move is to not keep hitting their heads into the Russian fortification, but to burst where there is almost noone, AND play "chase us" in inner Russia, where there are no defenses, since most able men are at the front ;)
This can take the war into a dynamic situation where troops move around, and then you can plan to take advantage of that with a secret Ukrainian plan :)
Just my opinion.
Slava Ukraina from Israel
MKuch of what you say is so very true. The war will not be won or lost in Donbas. A shitty post-industrial place before that now neither side actually really wants (because of the now massive economic costs of reconstruction there after a decade of war). Continuing to fight for deserted hamlets out there is not the war for UA to win.
I agree that whilst some UA defences will go up in Kursk UA will fight a mobile, flexible defence that negates RU airpower, to some extent and plays to their strengths. Especially now RU has to equip its mobile units with golf carts...!
1km Kursk/Belgorod is worh at least 10km of Donbas. This is hugely important when the world has been talking about peace negotiations. RU now ffinally has some skin in the game...!
There were 2 defensive lines in Kursk region but were filled with recruits of zero combat experience.
golden words 👍🏼
Israel has the issue of missile systems delivered to Iran that uses an ICMB pathing. FYI that is something you can’t shoot down
What happens if Russia just does nothing?
I think we are making the same mistake as at the start of the war, thinking Russia will act like a western military. If Russia just ignores this incursion, then it will have no advantage to Ukraine other than diverting troops.
Historically Russia's enemies have taken land and expected the Kremlin to care in the same way a western country would, only to end up advancing further and further into Russia with no real advantage and even to their detriment.
Good point actually
it would essentially show the west that their fears of escalation are unwarranted so could help Ukraine get weapons for pretty much whatever they need
We can see them reacting pulling troops all over, even out of crimea, stealing belorussian equipment to equip and throwin concripts into battle
It looks terrible for them, the hardcore nationalists won't accept this. It'll probolody get priority attention. Unless they fail to counter attack, then they might just keep the status quo and do nothing
RUssia is clearly doing something by transfering troops over from north kharkiv, Belogorod, and east ukraione.
You are not the only one that came to this conclusion I watched some other Polish channels and they have this same impression
Which channels?
@@spamcan9208 “WoW” means „Wolski o wojnie” he says that Ukrainian incursion makes sense if it’s diversion before something bigger in near future
@@cameltorun thanks
@@spamcan9208 he makes quite comprehensive studies based on troops recognition in the areas without political bias. Sometimes it’s sad to hear as he tells what the situation is rather what we want it to be
This is an atrittional war, ukraine simply saw a better place to get more favorable ratio against russia and went in and its working so far, but to think that is is a diversion and somehow ukraine can have even more reserves that could be used else where for an offensive doesnt look that plausable
Er sorry that doesn't really make any sense. If UA punches through a defenceless border it isn't going to attrit anything. It has got lucky with some troop convoys and whilst it wouldn't have expected the best to come at it too soon it wouldn't have planned for chronic RU stupidity not once but twice.,
If UA wants to attrit RU it continues with the grinding battles of mostly the Donbas.
@@ostweltsay that to the thousands of Russian conscripts who were killed there or the 3 to 5 hundred who Ukraine captured. Russia took some of its most significant losses of its troops of the entire war in Kursk - the likes we haven't seen since the first weeks of the invasion, like entire convoys of hundreds of troops getting knocked out by HIMARS
@@ostwelt say that to the ka-52s mi-28 and the thousand prisioners they took plus all the captured equipment and the reinforcments getting whacked there
I think you are often rather correct. I heard ( as you have too) Sweden recently got them right with the artillery and been making a DIY hacked together I think it is called combined weapons or the air controlled targeting and such. i think they could start cleaning up the battlefield and doing some big tent tricks!
Great video again
Thanks a lot!
@@PrestonStewart Preston I believe this is about forcing politically sensitive casualties while also bringing reality to Russia’s informational monopoly it has on its peoples. Looking at Russian media It seems to be breaking. Russian conscripts are not allowed to fight , unless it’s Russian soil. Russian army so far in Ukraine, RA soldiers are contracts, mercenaries, and prisoners. For Russia to atop the advance and or to take back the land, they will take high losses of 18 to 20-year-old Russian sons. Who have been relatively safe until now.
God bless you, brother keep up the good work .
@@PrestonStewart you are overly optimistic of russia being able to push ukraine out of kursk in weeks or months. look at their offensive from avdiivka and how long it took them from start of 2024. russia clearly lacks the man power as they are pulling from other active combat zones from various reports from kherson to zaphorizia, donetsk, luhansk and even kharkiv.
we dont know the size of the ukrainian forces but its safe to say its 10-15k and maybe even 20k. for russia to have a chance at pushing ukraine out of kursk, they need 30-45k troops and maybe more if they do frontal meat wave attacks. russia attacking ukraine in kursk is no different than defending in ukraine. the only difference is the damage is being done in russian territory and the russians will likely take a year to push ukraine out if they are successful.
the problem for russia is they have slow logistics and slow decision making since 1 man makes all the decisions. he distrusts his military so much he assigned his fsb bodyguard who has little military experience to head the kursk operation.
what is the goal? force russia to defend its border making russia use more resources and man power to do so. they lack it now as they are pulling troops from active fronts to move to kursk.
it makes the war alot more expensive for putin as well. he used up his reserve fund already and is printing roubles now to finance his war to spend 40 percent of the russian budget on war that brings back no tax revenue back to the russian economy. it means the high inflation you see in russia now rising will be going up alot faster as he prints more roubles. it also creates more of a labour shortage in russia, raising wages and driving up inflation more as well.
it forces russia to shut down the kursk nuke plant which they have started which supplies 5 regions with power for the winter. that not only affects civilians but the economic activity of 5 regions.
the slow manner russian decison makes moving, it likely take them mid to end of next week to move the troops from other fronts with heavy weapons to kursk. which means ukraine expanding control zone 4km a day moves the front line about 20-25km. what we have now is russia sending in groups of 300 russian soldiers into towns and villages to try to slow the ukrainians. but all ukraine is doing with mobile warefare is moving around and behind cutting off supplies and reinforcements and then surrounding them and forcing a surrender or elimination.
will have to see what happens next week, right now the big battle will be at belitsa where both sides moving reinforcements.
i think with ukraine attacking tolfino north of korenove, and drg groups going up and attacking up the e38 to rylsk, korenove will fall within a day or two. ukraine is attacking korenove with 2 pincers, one at tolfino in north and one from south in snagost. ukraine also have a force coming up from west from tetkino to korenove. russia is already evacuating the towns and village between tekino and korenove.
how far can ukraine go. i think the upper limit for logistics is 80-100km from border. beyond that you cant supply until you get really established. i think russian mod is conceding this, and its why they are slow moving in troops. also its why they building defensive lines near the kurks nuclear power plant westward. if they send in small units they will just get wiped. so i think they move close to kursk city and likely belgorod as an operating base and then move from there once they have sufficient numbers. with drones if they try to position closer with large groups the russians will just get himared.
the other goal here is ukraine is getting alot of high value prisoners. conscripts have a high value as well as kadrovites and the fsb officers captured. rumor is up to 1000 pow so far. why so high, cuz their motivation to die in battle is low.
Thank you for the commentary.
My speculation is that it is a diversion to pull Russian reserves and suppliea from the south to slow or delay future Russian offensive operations until mud season.
This would help stabilize the southern front.
Another thing to remember is how conscription works in Russia. Mandatory conscripts from wealthier and politically influential regions like Moscow and Saint Petersburg are only for internal security forces. The kids of the politically connected are not being sent to the front lines of Ukraine. But they are stationed inside Russia is kursk. So the dead, wounded, and captured Russian soldiers in kursk are the kids of the well connected . Not some tiny town in Siberia. Ukraine is potentially looking to how the soviet quagmire in Afghanistan led to large scale political instability in the soviet union. A siberian farmer's son dying has no impact on Moscow. But the middle to upper class moscovites losing their sons in kursk will put a huge pressure on the Kremlin.
Great vid, and well done for acknowledging the collective limitations of the analysis we all rely on. A diversion makes sense, but assumes a significant build up of UA forces - well trained, heavily equiped, and well supplied - to launch a 'proper' offensive. This may be the case, but the reason for such a motley group for the Kursk Incursion may be that such a force doesn't yet exist.
Anders Nielsen's take from last week is still the most convincing: UA made a quick land-grab into a soft area which they can then harden with prepared defenses to make Russia's inevitable counterattack costly, in line with the 3:1-5:1 ratios we've seen throughout the war. In this case, it is preparation for a war-ending move in the future but that future remains a long way off, but brought nearer by keeping the grim attritional fight going in their favour and avoiding stagnation. See also Perun's last summary of Russia's ex-Soviet stocks - reduced at least 60%, and in several cases already largely expended.
Either way, good stuff, keep it up!
You really ignore the Russian political perspective of the Kursk incursion, the Russians fight wars based on political objectives, not military objectives. If the Russian truly fought the war based on military logic instead of political goals, Ukraine would no longer exist today. From the Russian political perspective, it is not acceptable, *AT ALL* for Ukraine to control *ANY* internationally recognized Russian lands, this entirely destroys the veneer of a "Special Military Operation" and is the main reason why Putin has refused to call for a general mobilization, despite the military realities demanding so.
Bye, bye bridge.
My thoughts exactly.
Yes but they have shifted to majority of supplies to the rail line they recently completed so it does nothing but a symbolic victory
@@andrewscott8892 Um... Says who?
@@cabanford says Ukraine themselves.. maybe you should do more research and pay more attention on a day to day basis
Love your bravery
. putting your head above the parapet.. and calling it. Well done ✅
hi preson!
very interesting analysis.
may I make a humble suggestion, that could possibly make sense too?
breaking the lines and taking so much of Russia's territory forces the Russian military to put more resources on defence all over the border, if they want to prevent more of such line breakings.
this probably would come on the expense of the resources allocated on offense
arguably, this is a good trade off for Ukraine, where they risk one or two brigades but force Russia to move much broader units home
Eventually Putin will fear for his ability to hold onto power, even his life. There are other powerful forces that can play into this. Doubling down isn't what he needs to do to survive. He better start focusing on his internal security apparatus.
I think this was a thunder run that went way better than they expected.
"There's far more we don't know than we do" - well said sir!
At last another video!
Very well presented 👍🏻
11:58 - I also think this is most realistic reason for the incursion. What is the benefit? The benefit is that Ukraine would retake initiative when ruzzian "summer" offensive is about to culminate, so they don't want to allow any time for ruzzian to rest, consolidate, regroup and rebuild the capacity. As such, Ukrainian attack was inevitable once ruzzian offensive culminated. It could have been more of suicidal assault to retake Avdiivka, or maybe Bakhmut, or maybe try again to counter-attack Tokmak... however Ukraine does not want to lose men, they have none to spare, the whole point of Ukraine's defence is to preserve manpower, so wasting it on assaults into reinforced killzone is not an option. Also is not an option to let ruzzians rebuild strength and start again with another meat assault on another direction... maybe Sumy... So this was dilemma for Ukraine - what to do to keep ruzzians going and attriting themselves with ration of something between 3:1 and 10:1 when ruzzians culminate and stop attacking.
And they brilliantly turned their dilemma into ruzzian dilemma - they struck undefended Kursk, with minimal casualties and A LOT of captured equipment and soldiers on the way, they did it at the time ruzzian offensive is about to culminate, but have not yet culminated. Basically, ruzzian troops are still out on assault, finalising their assault and just before the time they dig in for defence for maybe upcoming 6 months, when winter weather allows for heavy vehicles to cross the terrain and when new "winter assault" could start. And this is now huge dilemma for ruzzia...
1. they could continue with their assault, finish the goals there, dig in and only then rotate troops to defend Kursk... also those troops would be in shambles, just completely demoralised and exhausted, without any time to rebuilt strength, retrain and refill units, repair equipment etc. And they would have to go against dug in Ukrainians, and continue to attrit themselves... meaning "winter offensive" would not happen. Not ideal.
2. they could pull troops immediately, leaving positions in the east vulnerable and at risk of rapid collapse and Ukrainian counter-offensive (like Kharkiv thunder run) and risk losing the gains of at least last 9 months and perhaps more... and the force coming to Kursk would still be tired and poorly organised, just pulled out of the front, going against best Ukrainian troops that are "box fresh".
3. Most importantly - ruzzia has to something, they can't just not react... so far they have failed to react hoping Ukrainian offensive is small, but they basically forcing ruzzian hand here. So not only it is dilemma, where both outcomes are bad, it is also a question that ruzzia must answer now and answer it quickly. They can't just wait and do nothing, because in 1 month Ukraine may have entire Kursk Oblast in their control. I know Ukraine probably does not have desire to control it all, but for example controlling NPP would be mortal blow to ruzzian economy, it is supporting like 20% of of ruzzian economy and could literally leave Belgorod in the dark, so this also just as a side note undercuts entire Kharkiv offensive.
In short - it is triple dilemma for ruzzia and the more they delay, the worse it gets.
Very good points.
Would amplify that retaking Donbas towns does nothing for either side in defeating the other to accept peace terms. Tokmak has importance as on the way to Krim which does have the ability to bring peace by, like this operation, showing the failues of the RU state and VVP's policies. But that sort of move wasn't ever on the cards for 2024.
A thrust into Kursk/Belgorod isn't the same as recapturing Krim. Arguably it is even more politically important as meaningless territory to Kiev but crucial to Moscow. It is a brillant move. But to look at it simply as a military operation is to miss much of it's importance.
@@ostwelt Also forgotten to mention, with better intelligence and some NATO intel Ukraine is likely going to know when and where the reinforcements are coming from. ruzzia is horrible on logistics, so the reinforcements will be huge column, which has to go all the way back to Voronez and have to come in all the way on predictable route to Kursk. Ukraine can easily sabotage the railroad at least 200km away from current incursion in Kursk, meaning ruzzia will have quadruple dilemma - bring light mechanised troops (likely the type that Ukraine can easily defeat), or drive heavy armour on it's own power across Kursk... which is likely going to be break down and run out of fuel before they even reach Ukrainian lines, or they will have to have column of trucks with fuel and spare everywhere and will be seen literally from space.
In short, even if ruzzia now decides to reinforce the Kursk... it is not so easy to do. Superior tactics, intel and drones warfare will turn any large column moving towards the Kursk into catastrophe, and any smaller/lighter units will be taken apart peace meal. Basically, they now need entire division, dedicated to new "special military operation", that is to take "Kursk back in 3 days", with dedicated leadership and logistics to support it. Where they going to get division from when they can't even find few brigades?
Honestly anytime I think "surely they can't be that bad", ruzzians keep proving they are even worse. This is epic blunder, not having any reserves on flanks, on your own sensitive territory, knowing full well that reinforcing it or retaking it would be major struggle is just unbelievable. Also it shows how ruzzian army is not only second best in Ukraine now, but it turns out second best on it's own territory, they really have thrown everything they had at war, if they don't even have few brigades to spare for their own territory defence. It is laughing stock, not all is known, but so far it seems Ukraine deployed 4 partial brigades, basically like one battalion from 4 different brigades, totalling something like 2000 men. And ruzzia seems to be unable to scrape a single full brigade in the entire Kursk?! How? How they are that bad at it?
@@lp9280 Very good points again and as you present it a huge ongoing problem for RU simply getting combat units in region. Gerasimov isn't going to be around after this just now being kept in place to avoid embarrassment because, as you describe, it is a major strategic failure. Not going to be easy for RU to get out of this especially if UA can keep the railway lines U/S.
Really you think as low as 2k UA?!? I must admit I take those OSINT numbers as deliberate low-balling for disinformation. Personally think it is 10x that. Though that would be all in face value of committed units.
Anyway, the UA impact on RU is at least 10x the current cost!
@@ostwelt Allegedly... based on units that released the footage. Whenever Ukraine brought more troops after they achieved breakthrough to exploit it... who knows... perhaps we will know in few more days. As you say, Ukraine did good job with OPSEC and OSINT is at best late by 2-3 days, if not completely skewed to confuse ruzzians even further.
I still don't know why gerasimov is even around, he made fool of himself for 2 years straight, the man has so little to his name that my opinion about him as ruzzian commander can't get much lower than it already is (putka seems to agree, but then why being master strategist he does not replacing him?!)... however I think the mistakes goes much deeper, all the way to putka himself. I think overall, putka, gerasimov, whole ruzzian intel didn't believe that US would allow Ukraine to do it, or that it was possible and this was mistake so crucial that it will be hard to recover now. So perhaps the answer here - gerasimov just does what putka tells him to do, then when it goes wrong takes the fall for him. The problem is that putka makes so many mistakes it is now becoming embarrassing even when somebody takes the fall for him, because overtime it just seems like he is either idiot himself for keeping them around, or that he surrounded himself with idiots. Both bad look for somebody pretending to play 4D chess.
Also... I don't think that US allowed Ukraine to do it, however it is still unbelievable to me, but ruzzians and putka are actually that dumb - they believe in their own propaganda. Basically, they do not comprehend the fact that Ukraine has agency of it's own, they still think in 19th century imperialist way and in the theory of "zones of influence". They honestly (it seems) do not believe that Ukraine is fighting for itself, rather they probably believe that Ukraine being played like pawn by US/NATO or maybe aliens... They simply thought, because US does not allow it, then Ukraine will not do it, completely overlooking the fact that Ukraine is free country and can do whatever they damn want without asking for permission. Their flawed mindset and worldview basically prevented them from considering this outcome seriously.
Fair to say.. Ukraine did a little gamble here, because although they don't take order from US, they still rely on US and all allies for support. So Ukraine decided to ask for forgiveness instead of asking for permission... and it turns out US and west actually didn't minded it anyway, so gamble played off.
The only negative side of it... if it could be called that. This was one time only opportunity and ruzzia won't make this mistake again (although I might need to eat my words... because they are that incompetent they may fall twice on the same rake). So for Ukraine it is best to exploit it as much as they can.
Thank you so much for this video and the work you are doing.
I'm not a microphone guy, but I think something was off on the first 15 seconds of this video, for headphone users.
Interesting take that aside.
Yeah, the mic issue was very funky, but for me it lasted quite awhile longer than the first 15 seconds.
It's louder on the left side
Well said big bad Preston as always
Yep, they moved their knight across the board and put Russia in check. Now Russia needs to move pieces. Then the next move by Ukraine will be interesting.
The problem is, some months ago, for the first time in the war, Russia managed numerical superiority due to Ukrainian losses. 500k Russians against 420k Ukrainians was the last estimate I saw. Russian won't have to pull forces from the east, rather they will use their reserves.
Great analysis
audio seems weird, anyone else ?
seem like only one channel (left).
Happens to the best of us lol.
Might be. This was the fourth recording because the first three had awful audio. Had to hard restart the computer last night and settings are all off now. I think after listening to it so bad for a few takes this one came across as normal! Alright, digging into it this afternoon and will get it resolved. Thanks for pointing this out!
@@PrestonStewart To me it sounds like left headphone is little bit louder than right one.
@@PrestonStewart Still a great vid thanks for the work getting it out for us!!
@@sivaltogamingsame here. Glad to hear it's not my headphones failing.
@Preston
It's interesting to hear your points in general and with the Kursk offensive in special.
I think you sometimes miss out some of the very good channels from europeans, that have a different angle.
I would recommend Anders Puck Nielsen - he's a danish officer teaching in the military, and fluent in russian. He's foreseen a lot of the things happening in this war, and is a excellent strategist.
Try out his youtube channel, short videos regarding both the war, the politics behind the war, and the overall influence on the world.
I think you'll like it as well as everybody else taking an interist in this war.
I think that this offensive into Russia, is as much a show for the west, as it is a strategic choice. I think Ukraine is like, look the west just gave us all this aid, and they have been worried we have been slowly losing ground, so we are gunna show west that "Hey if you keep the support coming, we will make good use of it."
So, exactly this is as ever one of the key political reasons in what is a near 100% political move. And, drum-roll, who is this particualrly important for but our boy Preston has completely overlooked even though it is in his own backyard!?!??! The US presidential elections on 05-Nov.
My bet is that UA will not pullback or, out from this salient before those are done. For, exactly as you say, the Kursk attack gives the US Administration (this time D but would have been to which ever party was supporting it) a big thank you. You backed us and together we (US-UA) are winners. because nobody likes losers...
Which has now become VVP's problem in front of Trump, Xi, Lukashenko etc.
Thank you for the analyy
Its demilitarization, de-nazification and liberation of Ukrainians, have you seen video with two elderly ladies in Kursk speaking Ukrainian?!
They're Nazis too wym /s
Yes, a diversion; I came to a similar conclusion a few days ago. Your experience, knowledge and info sources are far broader than mine. Curious...
Turn southeast and pour in.
Behind the Russian front lines. Glorious
I don't think this is a diversion at all. Too risky for just a diversion. Just like what most analyst are thinking, the possibility of Trump winning the elections puts Ukraine in a good position during negotiations, trading Kursk for the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine, however big Russia is willing to trade. Kursk is also a good target since it is directly along Ukraine's border and is most probably already "reconed" to be lightly defended prior to invasion. Ukraine actually only has 3 choices: Bryansk Oblast, Kursk Oblast and Belgorod Oblast. The rest of the border with Russia is already occupied. Retaking a heavily defended Russian occupied Crimea and eastern Ukraine will be a very bloody battle that will definitely inflict staggering casualties on both sides. Attacking a lightly defended Russian territory and negotiating an exchange later on is actually a brilliant plan if you ask me.
@@arash9255but what will Trump do if Ukraine is willing to negotiate and Putin isn't? Trump wants to proof that he's an "angel that brings peace everywhere". Trump is unpredictable and that can be good or bad for Putin.
Assuming they manage to hold to the 20 villages they have captured, what are they gonna trade them for? Fucking Crimea???
@@Mark-cw4tg Trump isn't unpredictable. He's an egomaniacal dictator worshiper. He is constantly singing the praises of the likes of Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un. Trump most certainly is NOT on the side of Ukraine as he is best friends with Putin. They're all idiots, but idiots with power and a distinct lack of care for the human race and lives expended in their vainglorious ambitions. The lot of them.
There's not going to be any negotiations from Russia as long as it looks like Putin is doing it out of fear for the Ukranians offensive. He can't afford that narrative and will endlessly double down on trying to kick out Ukraine first before he'll sit down to negotiate.
"just a diversion"? If a diversion is necessary for a plan's success, then its not risky at all.
Agreed, waiting for the other hand to show.
Information on the location of ukrainian troops is somewhat public.
They dont have the reserves for anything big. The only new units not yet know to be commited are 152th and 154th brigade.
Thats not enouth
I highly doubt the information you have on the amounts and location's of Ukrainian troops is anywhere near accurate. Nothing either side say or publish is correct. The 1000km2 of land statement is not true. No "Expert" can do anything but guess and speculate and I can do exactly the same about the total number of bicycles in Scarborough - it's 69,000.
you're so full of shit
I've been searching exactly those words in the last days because no analyst had a convincing view in my humble opinion
As you point out, the reason and end goal of this is unclear. With that in mind, the following is also a bit of speculation. Anders Puck Nielson was speculating that the primary purpose of the Kursk assault is to force Russia to continue to attack. The idea being to keep bleeding Russia by not giving them an opportunity to pause their assaults.
My own added speculation: Ukraine didn't think it would be this successful and are now being opportunistic.
How could UA not think they would be able to advance tens of kms across an undefended border? They knew no-one was really there and thus nothing was going to stop them for about 48hrs.
My take is thay haven't pushed far enough being too timid.
Preparing the reserves that could have exploited a breakthrough would have made it much more likely the operation would have been detected in advance and responded to. My bet is that rather that reinforcing this breech, Ukraine is going to raid another area, and keep Russia off balance.
@@michaelsandy2869 To be plain, I don't think that Ukraine has the reserves to exploit a breakthrough, at least not "exploit" in the WWII sense. What we are seeing is the extent that either of the combatants can exploit anything.
Great breakdown of events thanks for the information. Your point about using these units somewhere else with much less results and greater loses seems correct. Using your best forces to hit the enemy where they are weak seems wiser. Also expanding the front forcing RF to deploy proper forces all along the border allows Ukraine options to make it as hot as the east, and this will show who has enough men and material and who is stretched thinnest. Lets consider that if RF had enough men, material, and logistics to attack in the South and North all along the lines for 800 days past, then why didn't they do this? Ukraine has interior lines in this war and should be be able to attack or defend any point easier if there forces have supply.
Honestly I don't think ukraine is doing anything crazy, because this is asset removal i bet. And also forcing resource usage along with economic damage to the region. Because russia has to respond, but the lines are dynamic now making it less safe and more chaotic to use any asset. Ukraine just got a bunch of trooops trains and western gear. This makes planes, armor, and all that stuff more likely to get hit. Well ukraine is currently more organized here thus their risk is lower. Ontop of that, all the shit moving through will effect the regions economy and stability thus having longer lasting effects. And ukraine only has to keep attacking until just before russian has a solid defense. Then ukraine just stops, and pulls back through scorched earth. Putting russia on the attack through an area where logistics is harder now, and having to fight ukraine who's being defensive in a tactical withdrawl. All well russia is porbably going to lose a lot of stuff, one being aircraft i bet. Since those glide bombs are a real threat, and russia can't just magically pull out more aircraft quickly for service.
Despite the way it looks on the map, the western flank of the Kursk salient, south of the Seym river is probably not that hard for the Ukrainians to defend. The only supply route the Russians have to that whole area is the bridge at Glushkovo - the Ukrainians are probably able to collapse Russian defences there and claim everything on the Southern side of the river, using it as a defensive barrier. But they have realised that they need to do the hard work of harrying supply routes further north to precipitate this. Unfortunately the Northern side of the river is the high ground though so it's not a perfect defensive line but it's a reasonable conservative goal.
Dont tell them haha
I've had the same thoughts since the initiative began.
The world has been saying for months that Ukraine doesn't have the resources for any sort of counter-offensive, and isn't even capable of holding the line as Russia incrementally advances - and then this happens.
No one is talking end goal - because in Kursk there simply isn't one. But with enough interesting targets like the gas distribution hub and Kursk's nuclear reactor, there's enough of a threat to have everyone guessing about what the motivation is.
I am leaning to a Valkyrie-esque plot, or a massive landing push in Sevastopol. I guess we''ll know within weeks.
diversion and high stake gamble.....
Everything about this war is high stakes to Ukraine.
You've always present thoughtful analysis. Keep on doing so.
I wanna see zoomies go boomies
Agreed, that's what I was thinking perhaps Crimea or the Kerch bridge since they knocked out that gas platform.
The Ukrainian assault is a public relations move analogous to the Doolittle raid in WW2. The Russians are slowly but steadily grinding them down, so they need some action to show they can still attack and generate some hope in their population. Basically, to show they are still worth the investment in NATO resources and possibly push off pressure to negotiate.
The problem is that this attack amounts to a lot of guys driving armored vehicles as far as they can before getting hit with Russian drones and aviation. They have grabbed some ground and inflicted casualties but are also taking casualties and losing armored vehicles. Coming out of concealed defensive positions to drive in the open against an enemy with air, drone and artillery superiority is going to end badly. And Ukraine doesn't have 4 experienced brigades to spare on a PR stunt.
Is this a diversion for a larger assault somewhere else? Maybe, but that would require the presence of a substantial, uncommitted Ukrainian force somewhere in the country. And it would have to be 10+ brigades to be effective in any strategic sense. Attacking with a few brigades somewhere along the eastern front will do some damage, then run out of steam and be driven back.
So is there any credible intelligence or belief that Ukraine has 10+ brigades in reserve ready to exploit the Kursk diversion? Not territorial defense brigades, not some ramshackle thrown together brigades full of press ganged conscripts but actual trained and equipped mech infantry and armored brigades. It just doesn't seem likely.
The problem the Russians have is that their "drones and aviation" are failing to do anything except die...
The Russians have ground themselves down to the point of using golf carts and motorbikes.
This offensive is as unexpected as unpredictable. Interesting overview, thanks. Also, today Lithuanian defense minister announced that Russia is moving troops from Kaliningrad to Kursk Oblast.
I love that none of the military analysts have any clue what’s going on. It means we are witnessing something brilliant.
One hopes.
It is because the "military analysts" have become map-obsessed with grinding battles in the Donbas that don't do anything for anyone. But obsessing over these metres of ground won or lost means their first reaction has been to see this as all a diversion from those attritional battles. When those battles don't mean anything to anyone and won't lead to a conclusion of the war because they aren't what is being fought over.
Something extremely brilliant or something extremely stupid. As they said "it`s a thin border"
@@1liryx167 Crazy like a fox and crazy are sometimes in ambiguous superposition until the results are observed.
Another open, honest assessment. It would seem to be a military operation without objectives in the traditional sense, but it still has huge advantages. Russian defences in occupied Ukraine have proved a big obstacle, and a war of attrition there suits Russia - ruining Ukrainian land and creating a lot of regugees there. Having to retake Russian soil with the same scorched-earth tactics, with loads of Russian refugees soaking up resources and telling people what's really going on, does not suit Russia one bit. And Russian relief convoys are a juicy target - the whole process of re-taking Russian land will be hugely costly and a lot of forces can be fixed there with a relatively small Ukrainian defence. They can't just ignore it and maintain Putin's image - saving Russia from imaginary foes is his entire mantra, he can't fail to save them from real ones. Once Russia has sufficient combat power in Kursk, Ukraine can just punch another hole in the border somewhere else, make rapid gains again, and get on the front foot again in terms of morale and damaging Putin's reputation. This is something they can do again and again along the massive border, leaving behind mines and a small cover defence force. In that way they can indeed drag away significant Russian resources - especially in creating the defences and minefields that proved so costly to assault in southern Ukraine. All the time the ongoing reputational risk to Putin is massive, and casualties are likely to worsen significantly as manouvre warfare has proved incredibly dangerous for them right from the first drives into Ukraine.
Take care of your own household while you have it
So was D-Day
Yeah that is what naughty Germans thought for a few days
@looinrims exactly, and that is why the frenchies still have a country. Don't know for how long, but yes. I don't think this is anything but a diversion to get some breathing room elsewhere. Maybe this can be the start of the russian spring/autumn?
Except Germany never had a portion of the continental United States into their hands
@@SovietBear4 and volvograd that belongs to china
I don’t think you can call it a distraction with this number of troops and what they’ve achieved. It might have started that way but I think they found such a weak target they’re now exploiting it
That’s exactly what I said, when they did it
The obvious thing for everybody, even the Russians, is to think this is a diversion. The goal of course is to draw both attention and troops. But I think they may be a victim of their own success.
I personally think they were a lot more successful than they thought they would be. Now faced with the dilemma, do they support this, or do they do whatever plan a was?
Can they do both?
3:06 _"So delicious"_ 😂
AFU also left Google reviews of various places, it's all hilarious
Russian VLogger reports: In Sudzha District, Russian forces struck AFU positions in the area of Oleshnya, Mikhailovka and Sudzha. According to preliminary data, a strike was carried out on the Sumy Cardiology Center and the War Veterans Hospital in Sumy, where members of Ukrainian formations are undergoing treatment. In order to reduce "leaks" of information about the movement of Ukrainian equipment and the results of fire strikes, the General Staff of the AFU has imposed restrictions on the movement of civilians within a 20-kilometer zone of Sumy Region: now only locally registered residents can be there.
Read up to "Russian VLogger reports" and then I couldn't bear to read any further. have no desire to read a bunch of clunky prose of dubious veracity full of faux formal military speak.
I believe this is less of a PR move and more of a culmination of what Ukraine has learned coupled with their aspirations for winning this war. The way they managed to achieve a sort of surprise offensive in the face of all that’s happened, the preparations taken leading up to the attack and the manner in which they’ve managed to coordinate and maneuver their forces seems to me like it’s more of a test bed for working out the failures of the 2023 offensive, better planning, better coordination between their version of a combined arms operation given their lack of air power, they’re launching this offensive against weaker Russian formations to gain experience in an area where they can pull out rapidly if needed and not be hammered by the cream of Russian forces that are pushing in the east.
Well it’s a pretty costly diversion considering the recent videos being published on telegram by Russian propagandist showing a bunch of Ukrainian armored vehicles being smacked by lancet drones and ambush groups. This Kursk operation as they call it is a huge gamble ngl
Ok general
First?
First
"Something nobody thought was possible", or, as the Ukrainians call it, "Tuesday" 😅
There is a 4th reason. If Ukraine are digging in defensive libes within Kursk, it forces Russia to continue to take an offensive posture. Keeping their loss ratios high. Ukraine is steadily taxing Russias capability and this is helping to continue that collapse.
Well at least you are making a fair analysis with the information you have and that you believe as accurate as possible under the circumstances.
We cannot ask for more, and we should thank you for it.
At least I am thanking you.
Do your best, Preston, your ideas are as good as anyone else. Just tell us your limitations. That's all you can do.
Give your opponent dilemmas, not problems.
Cheers Preston. Great work as always.
Crazy how Ukraine wouldn't have invaded Russia if Russia didn't invade Ukraine. Truly crazy time to be alive. Never thought I'd see anyone invade Russia in my lifetime.