Why We May Be the Only Intelligent Life in the Universe with David Kipping of Cool Worlds
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- Опубликовано: 25 июл 2024
- Are We Alone? Are we the only intelligent life in the universe? Are there alien civilizations?
Prof. David Kipping of the Cool Worlds lab at Columbia University spoke with John Michael Godlier about his most recent paper. What are the odds for intelligent life? Are there alien civilizations in the galaxy? Or are the odds against intelligent life?
Prof. Kipping attempts to find answers to these questions using a Bayesian Analysis to look at life’s early start and our late arrival. The rare earth hypothesis argues that the origin of life and the evolution of biological complexity required an improbable combination of astrophysical and geological events and circumstances.
Watch and subscribe to the Cool World's channel: / @coolworldslab
The Odds of Life and Intelligence: • The Odds of Life and I...
Join the search for vanishing stars here: www.su.se/english/research/re...
Kipping, D. 2020, "An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Life’s Early Start and Our Late Arrival", PNAS: www.pnas.org/content/early/20...
Carter, B. 2007, "Five or six step scenario for evolution?", Int. J. Astrobiology 7, 177: arxiv.org/abs/0711.1985
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Are We Alone?
Watch David Kipping's video on the Cool Worlds channel for further insight: ruclips.net/video/iLbbpRYRW5Y/видео.html
Event Horizon back again !!!
@@bobabonanza9488 We are the center of the universe and everything revolves around us
Thanks dudes. These are indeed good questions.
Just assume we are not alone. That is common sense.
@@gumunduringigumundsson9344 Common sense is useless in these sorts of questions, see quantum physics.
@@gumunduringigumundsson9344 How can it be common sense when we have no idea how life is formed? What if life is a total fluke that will only happen once throughout all of time?
Awesome channel! Thanks for having me on again JMG et al!
Alright! I know it's an old video but I haven't seen it yet. My two favorite RUclipsr/Astronomers in the same vid. Stand back my brains going Supernova 🤯☄️🪐✨💫👽👽👽
@@orlandovazquez9662 Yes! Yes, that exactly. Binary brainovas; can you get that in X-ray?
@@chriskelly6574 I'm sure of it. Maybe LIGO picked up the brain"waves"hahaha! Like two Neutron stars colliding,there we go Chris! Sh*t, I left my cigarettes on Earth 🌎!
@@orlandovazquez9662 I have some but, there Canadian; wish we had some French cigarettes'.
Rather than "intelligent" life, we should be saying "technological" life, in my opinion. It makes an important distinction.
Why so important?
@@bozo5632 Detecting technology would be the only way for us to identify intelligence. We might be able to infer life from observations of the planet, but not details of that life, such as intelligence. One single radio transmission, though, would instantly prove intelligence, as would observations of artificial structures. It would also open the door to the possibility of communicating with them.
It would not arise on a 'Water world,' for instance.
It takes intelligence to make technologies.
Yes, agree with that.
This blunt is for you John
I love that you liked this one, John! ♥
You smoke more blunts than carl Sagan
@@stevencoardvenice .....so you've seen me... John is awesome to listen to. Ive almost solved the mysteries of the universe because of him. Haha 🤣🥰Btw, you made my day with your comment.
I want a blunt too please
@@Swampzoid you get a bowl, and you get a bowl, *EVERYONE GETS A BOWL*
In my experience, intelligent life on Earth is extremely rare
😂😂😂😂
No doubt!!
Well, copy-pasting other people's thoughts and statements sure isn't an example of intelligence.
@@mrloop1530
But it is an example of self replicating memes. A sort of independent process of intelligence which might occur within civilization. Perhaps the sum of us will prove to be smarter than the individuals among us. The wisdom of crowds as is.
@@nosuchperson284
The wisdom of CROWDS?
Nothing more stupid than the sheeple buying up toiletpaper en masse in a crisis where stocking up weaponry would be an actual intelligent act
I'm so old that my grandfather remembers when this comment was edgy.
This is the most realistic discussion on the topic I’ve heard, and I think I’ve kept up with most papers on the subject. It’s the first attempt, as far as I know, that has found a way (nod to Bayes) to mathematically include our own existence to enter a formula in a useful way. Thanks to both of you for this discussion. It made my day.
But isn’t it that because we are dealing with a sample size of 1 (us) we are statistically as likely to be alone than not?
I think the time and the distance all the events that happend on earth in the entirity of this planets existance we really cant comprehend the likelyhood we even exist in the universe how about the odds of the universe existing ?
Professor Kipping is my favorite, his videos, his voice, his channel and this one are gold mines on RUclips, great content Mr. Godlier, ty.
I think the simplest answer to the Fermi paradox is likely the true one ... We're alone.
In our galaxy alone there are between 300 to 400 BILLION stars, each one has a planetary system like our own, nevermind the trillions of other galaxies out there too. You can't really think that we are the only life in existence out of all those places can you?
Well, that depends upon how unlikely intelligent civilisation is. And it's reasonable to consider it very unlikely, hence why Prof Cox thinks each galaxy might only have 1 or 2 in them, or Prof Conway-Morris thinks we're prob the only one in the universe, or Prof Davies is sceptical about ET ever being out there. Since I think the universe and esp multiverse are too big to practically consider content, I'm gonna go with Cox's assessment and say civilisations are so rare as to make it plausible we are the only one in our own Galaxy. Which solves the paradox well.
This is why our lives are so precious. Don't take it for granted.
Lol precious. Ok
W.A. B the way you feel about yourself does not relate to others.
Fascinating interview. Years ago I assumed that our galaxy was teeming with technological civilizations. Over time I’ve come to the view that life is common but that intelligent creatures capable of technology are exceedingly rare.
Or just non existent. We have to also bring up- we may be alone hypothesis..especially If we can say evolution is a sci theory or hypothesis (even though its really not and cannot be sci tested) when so much fossil evidence points against it (we are the surviving
Amusing since there have been visitors from alien civilizations on Earth for millions, if not billions of years.
No there hasn't ahaha
I felt like I was in space while listening to this. The whole topic and your talk even killed some of my anxiety. My problems are so irrelevant, when remembering how special life actually is. Thank you very much.
Thank you for this excellent interview and discussion! May you all stay safe and well - and keep up the good work!
Dr. Kipping is my new favorite astrophysicist.
Watch his videos. Incredible content.
@@evanroberts2771 con people into subscribing?
IDK ..... he's like the Hugh Grant of Space Stuff. I feel like He's out there dating some of our moms. And to his credit......our moms love it!
Reminds me of Dr Alice Krippin. The archetect of the Krippin virus. Albeit not by intent. Contagion 2011 was a documentary. *I Am Legend* is a cautionary tale. What are mRNA vaccines capable of
wow, these were some very odd replies to my comment.
David Kipping and JMG, This is going to be a fantastic listen!
I really enjoy the back and forth conversations with your Guests. It makes me think of a warm fire outside a ski resort over looking a dark sky and a galactic background rising into view. Almost MST3K commenting on the absurdity of it all, yet finding it makes sense in the end.
Fascinating! One of THE best event horizon's conversations I have had the pleasure to listen to. Thank you so much John & David for this inclusive talk on many topics of the cosmos.
Yes
I’m a big fan of Dr. Kipping and his work, and I’m thrilled that John had him on to talk about this subject. I hope everyone who works on the EH team is staying well. Thanks so much, John.
Thank you Zachary!
Event Horizon of course! Happy to be catching up on all of the episodes I’ve missed recently :)
Haaa I was just browsing your old videos wishing a new one would pop up. Perfect timing. Thanks JMG!
EVERY FRIDAY.
RING THE NOTIFICATION BELL!!!
@@billykotsos4642 Every THURSDAY
Cool Worlds is by far my favorite channel. David Kipping is such a talented lecturer and the production quality of his videos are extraordinary.
What a great guest and a fantastic interview. I subscribe to both of your channels and this is definitely one of the best RUclips crossovers for me in a while. Perfect subject matter for two excellent science communicators to discuss.
I think Dr. Kipping's voice is so calming. I always love everytime I get a notification that Cool Worlds lab put out another video. Good talk gentlemen.
He’s awesome.
@@EventHorizonShow They both have very calming voices!
But does he make exceedingly good cakes ?
Listened to David on his channel, i feel i have also been slowing coming to this idea over the last few years, life can be abundant it just does not have to be intelligent enough to know we are out there. Intelligence is rare.
I also am starting to think this too. Maybe intelligence is like winning the galactic lottery. Even looking at all of the species on our planet, there's only one that became a technological civilization.
@@happyhammer1 you summed it up perfectly! We won the galactic lottery!
I think if it was intelligent as in aliens that they would be the same as us in so many ways only more advanced in technology. I think we are a superior species and a product of a very rare chemical mixture
@@geemanbmwAgreed. I think we humans are caught up in "We have to know now". The truth is given the amount of data we have vs the size of the universe, the only conclusion we should come to is... There's insufficient data to answer that question.
@@jamiemccartney3242 well I'm not writing it in stone and hope we aren't alone as a technological civilization. Though I think it is reasonable to ponder whether we are the first technociv in the galaxy. Just think of all the variables that led to our civilization.
Absolutely addicting videos! Always informative and entertaining.
Thank you for this great conversation here. Learnt a lot !
Brilliant thank you guys, this is so clear and understandable. Please follow up again quickly.
Discovered you after someone recommended your other channel on Reddit. Ever since then I think i watched pretty much all your videos, at least 2 per night. Keep them coming, one of the best subscriptions in a while. Also gave me plenty of ideas for a short sci-fi film!
You should watch Cool Worlds videos as well!
You should check out Isaac Aurthur's channel for sci-fi ideas.
@@storm123eagle Was listening to an episode with Dr David Kipping so will be checking it out tonight! Thank you :)
I would think subsurface ocean life would be quite common. It is the 1st place life developed on earth and it did so rather quickly in the grand scheme of things.
Great content as always!
I love falling into your event horizon, time gets distorted and 1h goes by in a minute
Awesome show!! Love Kipping's deep insight! Another Great show John!! The channel keeps getting better everytime!!💪
A collaboration of two of the most amazing thought provoking content creators on my list! I'm gonna savor this one😊
Edit: As soon as JMG said: "Welcome back," I realized I had been living under a rock and missed the previous episodes. Not for long.
Yes. David is great. We love having him on the show.
John both the channels are literally the only channels I listen to consistently, only listening to music is all I do besides listening to you. You’re above the music tho. The great shows and questions are like music to my ears anyway. Keep it up. Also enjoyed Supermind I must admit I need to read again. Easily understood but feel I missed something. Thank you so much.
Prof.David Kipping is my favorite astrophysicist, and Cool World channel is the best.
Hi guys hope you're all well. Thanks for the show.. I couldn't do without it. I'm on my phone at the moment as you know JMG computers some times have a mind of their own. Again guy's big massive thank you x.
I thought I would add a small comment here. Ive been wondering who dislikes Event Horizon and JMGs videos because to be honest you can tell they are produced really well , they are polished and also they must cost a fortune in funds and personal time to create and they are made with love. Come across a guy called par--a-x-ick (not showing full name but im sure people can use wordplay for a bit of fun and work it out) . He points out how he dislikes the "space people" on you tube who feel it necessary to put out short content updates on RUclips and pictures of Fraser and John pop up on the screen. What annoyed me further was h was trying very hard to emulate Event Horizon on his yearly astronomical events videos using the same music music and some video that was also very familiar. Well his vocal presentation was pretty rough and a bit boring so I switched off but this is why I love JMG and Event Horizon no negative mentions but instead great collaborations and guests of a very high calibre . I was glad though that you were named as one of the TOP RUclips Space and Physics content providers and I think people should be a bit jealous about your quality presentations which are very professional and informative and just epic....
I have been wanting to see this collaboration for a long time.
There are previous interviews with him on this channel
@@stevencoardvenice I was unaware but I mainly meant them talking about cool worlds latest episode.
@@happyhammer1 then you have only been waiting for a week 🤣🤣
Great episode 👍🏻
Two favorite folks chatting on a neat topic 😎
Listening to this while working on work project on my laptop at home. Interesting as always.
Keep up the excellent work guys!!
I think, it does all come down to the right time. If we did discover something out of our reach, that actually proved that (intelligent life) exists, then we wouldn’t have this period of time to understand the smaller things that we need to know before we come in to contact. Just think how long we’ve been looking and how much we’ve learned from searching. It’s all a preparation of what’s to come
A new way to transition into something even better!
Sadly, it is quite possible that we're the only intelligent life-form in this galaxy.
The main reason is that galaxies periodically experience sterilizing events, where a large amount of matter falls onto the central black hole, releasing intense gamma radiation. These events actually produce conditions more favorable for (future) life. This happens because this radiation causes more water and organic molecules to form in the galaxy's molecular clouds. So, the star systems that form after such an event will have more of the ingredients for life.
This likely happened shortly before our Solar System formed. Of course, this would mean that any life that had arisen in our galaxy before this event would have been extinguished. If this is the case, that would mean that the galaxy has only had about 4 billion years for creatures such as us to evolve. When you factor that into how unusual our Solar System, and the Earth is, the odds of us having company narrow significantly.
For starters, our Sun is an unusual star in that it is uncommonly stable in its output. Add to that, our unusually large moon, the chance impact of an asteroid, 65 million years ago, and many other uncommon events and it's not difficult to see how we could be an exceedingly rare fluke. Just taking that one event alone - much smaller and the dinosaurs would probably still dominate the Earth - much bigger and our ancestors would have been wiped out too!
If the above is all true, then we may well be alone in this galaxy and, even if we're not, the chances are that the next technologically advanced race is not anywhere close - not nearly close enough to contact.
Would love to be wrong here but the more we learn, the more this scenario seems likely. Maybe we should use this to better appreciate just how lucky, and rare, we are and start to place more importance on this amazing little planet of ours. We may be the only ones here. Lets not screw things up.
Thank you for demonstrating the anthropic principle. Your entire statement is predicated on the idea that the universe exists so that we can exist. There is no evidence for that. The universe exists, and we exist, but correlation does not imply causation.
Shawn Elliott I was so high when I wrote this 😂 thanks for your input but at this moment I time I really don’t care 😂👍
Antony Stringfellow I like your thinking keep up the good work
This is the best discussion of the subject I have seen. The interviewer is well-informed. Dr. Kipping is covering the bases, whereas elsewhere he has been somewhat more ambiguous. Here, they are mostly talking about our own galaxy, which is the right way to look at it.
I love topics like this they really make you think. Another fascinating video I always look forward to these :D
Watching this on a Friday after work, and having a drink every time he says slam dunk 😋 is interesting to think on how many things in earth's history that if happened maybe even slightly different, could have led to a very different present day
It takes VERY little to change history, the present, and subsequently the future.
my favorite subject thanks for posting
I'm excited! I've been binge watching cool world's during quarantine lol :P
This is a great talk.
Hey buddy, aliens are real. They have us under constant monitoring until we all figure out that consciousness is a singularity and we are all secretly the same person. The aliens know every thought you have ever had. There is no such thing as privacy or death. All life follows a similar morphology, so A LOT of aliens literally look human. Welcome to the space age.
Good chat
@@addamriley5452 Well, umm, thanks for that information...?
great stupid talk of idiots who think that they are inteligent because nobody from aliens dont park spaceship on their noses !!
@@addamriley5452 you must be on some really good drugs.or really bad drugs.
The possibility of Venus having been habitable in the past is endlessly fascinating. I wish this topic was explored more. I seem to remember seeing a video about a paper that claimed that the hellish conditions on Venus and the complete resurfacing of the planet may have only happened in the past 300 to 500 million years.
Great episode. David is fascinating to listen to. Really admire his massive brain and how he can look so vastly. His channel is one of my Favorites. Well done JMG
He’s great. Just recorded a new interview with him, will be out soon.
Great interview! Dr Kipping is a great guest and I love his channel. Thanks for the episode.
Thank you Strick! Hope you and the family are well. We’ve been working on some really fun stuff you’re going to love. Will post it on the patreon when it’s all confirmed.
@@EventHorizonShow Sweet! Looking forward to it.
Thanks John. I always enjoy listening to Dr. Kipping.
I have never clicked so fast! My 2 favourite youtube creators together🙃
kipping and JMd when ever you guys post search for aliens videos I watch them over and over while I’m falling asleep probably like over 20 times each lol
Thanks Michael, I watch every single one of your videos.
Awesome. I absolutely love David Kipping. I know this is going to be great. Haven’t watched it yet.
Good work Eryn Knight! Thank you for being awesome
No, no, no, thank YOU for being part of our journey through RUclips!
@@ErynKnight Absolutely! You always talk about such FAScinating topics! And your content promotes deep thought. Today's video really brings up a good point too. We have no idea what's out there, we need far more data... Hopefully the James Webb space telescope will help us out with that c: Great guest today, I watch Cool Worlds so it's cool seeing this collaboration
Great Episode.
I really like David's stringent and rational reasoning (in contrast to some more ehm more emotional guests).
Such a great channel, lovely vibe and sounds and most interesting topics
I believe that not only is intelligent life extremely rare, but life in general. It isn’t just about being in a habitable zone of a star.... The planet needs a multitude of other factors. A magnetic field, a rotational axis that produces weather patterns, a large moon has likely been vital, a Jupiter type planet further out sweeping up or diverting disastrous comet and asteroid impacts.....on and on. I believe the conditions that made life on earth possible are impossibly rare.
Well said, Travis!
I suggest that without an abundant source of fossil fuels, development of a technological civilization is very unlikely. And coal, oil and natural gas seem pretty unlikely and happenstance.
Finally another video! Hey John this winter I messed around with astrophotography and I got a really nice picture of the Cigar and Bodes galaxies. And I was wondering if if was possible to get it on one of your videos, I see you reuse a lot of pictures. Don't even have to credit it, it would just mean so much to me!
david kipping is the best scientist on
exoplanests and the fermi paradox at the moment...there it is....i've said it!
Think things into being. The use of the mind, desiring to learn and know as well as help others to do the same!! Keep using the power of the mind!!
Fascinating video, keep up the good work ❤️
Stunning interview. Thank you!
Strangely, I'm actually somehow a lot more excited about the possibility that we turn out to be not special at all - but just a particularly wacky configuration of something that is incredibly common and mundane in the universe. In a sense, of course, that's almost a self-evident statement - after all, we've been finding organic chemistry all over the place already, so at the least we know that having the building blocks for life present in no way requires life itself as we currently think of it. Which begs the question...
Could the same point about anthropocentrism in the way we view intelligence (i.e. we're too focused on looking for evidence of things that behave like us, such as using radio) also more broadly apply to how we've got a bit of a problem bias in the way we search for life? Maybe the thresholds in what we see as life and not-life are also off the mark or too focused on Earth biology as we know it?
My own bet is that we may actually first detect truly alien life not in space, but right here on Earth - and possibly somewhere a lot more mundane than kilometers deep under polar ice. I have no idea what that might be, what it may actually act like, and what types of instruments (observational or theoretical) we'd have to use to find it - but it does make me wonder if our binary "life vs. not-life" view might not quite hold up in the long run. And not in the "super-advanced aliens walking among us" sense, but the opposite - in things we now regard as too primitive, as life's "building blocks" rather than life itself. What if, rather than a chance product of "unusual configuration of mundane chemistry", life turns out to actually be an inherent and inevitable function of that mundane chemistry, not an exception but a natural and normal consequence of some universal law? Again - I've no idea how with the tools at hand we'd even go about demonstrating that, or if that's really possible. But it's an interesting thing to wonder about. And to me, there just doesn't seem to be anything all that uncomfortable about the idea that all we are is just a particularly eccentric configuration of something utterly normal, usual, mundane - and of which other instances are not exceptional but actually everywhere, including right here at home. In a way, finding that would be even bigger and more exciting than discovering microbes on Mars and Europa.
In short, Life is the natural evolution of matter.
Is there a podcast version of your videos? I think they're brilliant and should be available to listen to as well!
Soon
I hope these two chat again soon. Really enjoy their content and conversations.
19:30 I watched David Kipping's video on this paper on his channel before, but here he's explaining this objective bayesian logic in greater detail, much easier to understand.
i like sparking one up and just listening to this while i woodwork
If we are it an awful waste of space.
Empty space that will be ripe for the taking. The galactic human empire will reign supreme.
But does science care?
Grow up. Would you call elephants a waste of space? You're calling every living thing that's every lived on Earth a waste of space. The universe is pretty indifferent about what you think of it. It's still gonna be empty all the same, or maybe not; there is no point to caring about this. The universe is gonna do what the universe is gonna do, and right now it looks like what it does is be completely devoid of intelligent life and you gotta learn to be cool with that, or cry like a baby for the rest of your days.
Travis Hammer yea but that’s boring bro! A universe full of humans...
@@JAYFULFILMZ Humans will diverge into different species over the course of millions of years of isolated evolution.
I just wanna say, again, please never stop mr Godier!
2 of my favorite RUclipsrs. Love your content.
Super interesting, despite having already watched David Kipping's video. The only thing I was missing in this discussion is the fact that Dyson swarms seem kind of inevitable for civilizations given enough time and therefore the lack of those seems like a much more damning piece of evidence than the lack of radio waves.
@Joe Shumo nothing about a Dyson swarm is particularly advanced tbh. We could start building one right now if we really wanted. Without some advances in automated space-based mining and manufacturing it's going to take us millenia or more but that's a short time on an astronomical scale.
We have not imaged or observed even close to a fraction of a percent of the total number of stars in our galaxy (let alone the stars in other galaxies) to be able to state conclusively that there is a "lack of observed Dyson Swarms." Give it a few more centuries of galactic surveying and imaging/ spectroscopy and then it will be more reasonable to state the lack of such things to be particularly damning.
@@Shadow-In-The-East but why would an advanced civilisation be confined to one or even a couple of stars? If intelligent life was common, we'd expect it to colonise all of the galaxy. Same goes for other galaxies.
Awesome!
In my mind, the elephant in the room, as far as the elements of the Drake Equation discussed here, is why there is no mention of the failure to replicate biogenesis in a lab. Complex molecules are still not biogenesis. I wish this type of analysis would attempt to quantify/qualify the scope of what has been tested, in this area of research. If biogenesis is so easy, surely we could replicate it. The fact we haven't, IMO, should dominate the analysis of the timeline. Does it matter how early life can be detected on Earth if we can't determine the physical mechanism and conditions required? It seems like both should carry a similar weight until a breakthrough is made.
That's always been the elephant in the room when it comes to the Drake Equation. The math is sound if the variables plugged in are correct, but we have no real way of knowing if they are.
I can do it, just provide me with 4 billion years of funding and a petri dish the size of the earth
I'm pretty sure we all could do it under those parameters
@@TheNoodlyAppendage
No problem. I just invested $1 in a savings account, with a 2% annual compounded interest rate. You'll get your payments in 1k year increments. Just leave my dollar with each withdrawal. The remaining $398,264,650.66 is yours to accomplish the task.
You will need to do this withdraw four million times during your operation as proposed. My total investment, depending on how you look at it, is either $1 now or 1,593,058,610,000,000 by the end. I hope you can manage this. It is 17.3 times the current projected global GDP of the world in 2020. Good luck :-)
There is easy and there is "easy". If complex molecules make the jump to life in an environment the size of the oceans every 1000 years, life is nearly inevitable on every habitable planet. However your chances of replicating that in a laboratory are miniscule.
Just finished watch David Kipping's video. And now I see this video is uploaded :D
Amazing
I never heard anyone say "Radio is the only way", but it definitely is a good way, because what the experts here seem to overlook is that Radio is not just shows and other information we send out and will soon replace with optical cables and stuff like that, there is also Radar and we won't get rid of that technology anytime soon and even more importantly, electromagnetic signals are sent out involuntarily when using other technologies that are not even meant to send anything.
All our overland power cables send out tons of unintentional EM signals all the time. So much that there is now "Passive Radar" technology, which detects stealth aircraft by looking for "holes/shadows" in the constant ambient white noise our cities and power lines produce.
Basically every time you use electricity, you are also creating electromagnetic waves.
Since electricity seems very likely to be utilized by any technologically advanced civilization, looking for electromagnetic signals, whether intentionally emitted ones, or unintentionally, not only makes a lot of sense, but still seems to be the best bet.
Honestly, a physicist saying that radio signals aren't that useful for finding aliens because we are already moving away from the technology is shockingly ignorant.
Does this physicist not know how electromagnetic waves are created and that radio towers aren't the only things that do that?
In a universe with virtually limitless stars, to believe Earth is the only planet with life is plain nuts.
More like salty nuts.
But what if there is even more limitless time and forces acting as filters against it ? What then ?
I don't even think we humans count as intelligent life... The last months proved it.
And i really hope there are some intelligent races out there. They could guide us to be better than what we are! Or just wipe us out
Markus Schmieder I’m rooting for them helping us but I wouldn’t argue if they decided we weren’t worth it and just wiped us out to save the earth
Markus Schmieder wow very edgy
Bayesian inference for the win.
Bayesian Schmeysian. How quaint.
When you brought Dr. Kipping, you elevated the respect and admiration
I have for this channel ever so more. The last time I felt like this is when you
brought Isaac Arthur. Thanks
Thank you and expect more!
Good video. David Kipping is good to have as a guest. As a subsciber of both chanel, I enjoy his own chanel too. Both of your shows make the modern space science interesting. You raise and answer questions in an understandable way. Keep it up. You'll get your moons eventualy. Heck, we have 205 in our solar system. The odds are pretty good of finding some elswere.
OK, help me out here. He says to think of an experiment where you have a hundred glasses of water, and a chemical you want to dissolve.
You either have a result where the chemical will dissolve every time (a hundred percent) or none of the time (zero percent).
Then he says it would be odd if it only dissolved half the time (50/50), or like just 10 percent of the time.
So in the paper he considers only two possibilities. Either it's small (close to zero), or one.
And he concludes that since we see just one (life here on earth) that it means the odds are closer to zero of other intelligent life.
Here's what doesn't make sense: using his experiment with cups of water, if you test dissolving the chemical in one randomly selected cup, and it doesn't dissolve, you can reasonably assume it won't dissolve in any of them.
The same should be true conversely. If the chemical *does* dissolve in one randomly selected cup, then you would reasonably conclude it will dissolve in all of them.
So If we're the one randomly selected cup where the chemical dissolves, then it should dissolve in all. Or, since this is an analogy of the occurrence of intelligent life, if we see it this one time here, then it should be common everywhere.
Why is he assuming the opposite of what his example shows?
It doesn't make sense. Anyone want to clear up his reasoning for me here?
The problem is he has grand ideas but lacks basic understanding of much that he talks about!!
corwin zelazney Your conclusion is rational.
@@mausolos8 thanks, I appreciate that. I actually wrote out what he said so I could get my head around it. But no matter how I looked at it, it seemed like his conclusion was the opposite of what his example said.
Anyway, thanks for your support. At least I know I'm not the only one a little confused by this :)
It’s a good point but your pushing the analogy too far and taking it too literally. If the prior were what you described, it would have zero probability between 0 and 1 and two semi-infinite spikes at 0 and 1. Whilst the Haldane prior disfavors intermediate values it doesn’t make them impossible like this. The objective distribution used looks like a bowl, with a finite bottom height and then curling up at zero and one. It’s found by computing the determinant of the likelihood function’s Fisher information matrix, a method first shown by Harold Jeffreys to result in uninformative objective priors.
I believe that the example he is using is that if you are expecting either a yes it dissolves or no it doesn’t answer, and you find that the chemical generally doesn’t dissolve but in a single case it does, that is an outlying fluke result.
It kinda uses the mediocrity principle in a different way than usually used. The mediocrity principle is that if you only have a single example for consideration, it is more likely to be close to the mean than to be an outlying result. It is usually used to say the single world we find life on has to be considered to be the most likely outcome because we don’t have samples of life from other worlds to see what life is like generally.
The way the argument is being used here is not that we have only one sample of a life supporting world. Rather that we have multiple examples of worlds that do not support life so life not arising is the mean and our world is clearly an outlying result.
Life is an anomaly of physical matter, imagine looking at sand and realizing that was us at one point and somehow inanimate objects began to move on its own.
Water
A beautiful shot of my hometown in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the U.P. And the stunning Lake Superior. Nice.
Inspirational thoughts from the guest. Thank you.
Question, could a civilization, in a different supercluster, send us pictures of their observable universe? Thus giving use information we are causally disconnected from.
Yes, but the question is how long will it take for us to receive that picture? Interesting thought though
If that can happen then we aren't truly causally disconnected from it.
Notification gang?
Telluric... I learned that word playing Star Control II back in '92. Good times. Goooood times.
This is my new favourite channel
Welcome
If there was only one form of intelligent life for every 100 million galaxies, and if you went with the low estimate of 200 billion galaxies in the observable universe, that would leave 2,000 species of intelligent life. If you went with the high estimate of two trillion galaxies, that'd be 20,000 forms of intelligent life. I find it statistically improbable that we're the only intelligent life, the likelihood we simply cant find it for whatever reason (i'd guess distance, considering the size of the universe), seems much more sensible. The only exception to this is if we changed the numbers to one form of intelligent life per observable universe, in which case, maybe we still get to be special for a while longer...
then you don't understand the astronomically low chances of life evolving, surviving, and being steered towards our current state of evolution...
@@djsega4289 With a sample size of one, nobody knows the chances.
@Joshua N. Ajang True
@@microbuilder we do know the chances, and they are extremely close to zero. so close to zero that even in a near infinite universe we might be the only intelligent life capable of space travel
@@djsega4289 Chances were good enough for us, and we have no other examples, so no one knows.
There's 3 scenarios for panspermia, we are from there, they are from here or we both come from somewhere else, the last one is the most fun for me, the live galaxy idea, life everywhere. Also is it random panspermia or directed 👽👽👽
There is so much life out there it would boggle your mind in joy to know of it, although, there are those from far away who are not at all the type we would like to invite to an afternoon barbecue... We might end up being the main course... ouch...
I haven't listened yet but two of my favorite youtubers collaborating again should be good.
Being alone would be an awful waste of space.
You're not alone. Eight billion people on Earth and you're looking for either Space Jesus or aliens with which you would have very little in common.
No, it wouldn't.
Pink Floyd:
If you listen to the album, you'll hear: "there is no 'dark side' of the moon really, as a matter of fact, it's all dark"
Is the other side of the moon bright when an eclipse occurs??! Lol
People were talking about "the dark side of the moon" when I was a child in the '50s, a decade before Pink Floyd. It was a common popular misconception which amateur astronomers constantly corrected. And I think it may have been common among my parents' and grandparents' generations.
Don't forgret that around that time,roughly before the pedants kick in, David Bowie was asking if there was life on Mars.
Unless light hits it
Hasn’t intelligence occurred several times ( that we know of) I.e the other hominids, Neanderthal,etc?
all the same lineage though
A few years ago some paleontologist claimed they had found smart dinosaurs.
Octopuses and some birds are intelligent. Plenty of really intelligent creatures on earth. They just dont have bodies to be creatures that build rockets. Also their environment they live in doesn't help .
We should be using different word when looking for creatures like us . The word 'intelligent ' is not clear enough.
Instead we should say 'technologically advanced ' .
@@velkylev4217 More than the physical limitations, the short life span of the octopus dooms it.
@@velkylev4217 or maybe a "technologically capable" species.
Love this channel. So funny: this very video has gotten me to sleep 3 times. Invaluable
Am I too happy that JMG AND my boy David from Cool Worlds are on the same program, well I really don't care! Thank you soooooo much guys, I subscribe to both and didn't know you were familiar. You guys rock thank you!
Yes! We love David. In fact he’s been on the show a few other times as well. Here are those episodes. ruclips.net/video/OjXN-SmHvC0/видео.html ruclips.net/video/uYXH4rH1SwM/видео.html ruclips.net/video/qgkuXtQ5f9I/видео.html
Not only outer, but inner space? Reading my mind as far as my tardiness to the party (party nonetheless!) Many thanks my friends!
I called my dad today and called him a snowflake. He said, "Son you better start making sense". Lmao he obviously doesn't watch Event Horizon. 🤣
"Stop making sense." - Talking Heads
@@gileshabibula7006 good band 🤘🏻🤘🏻
And like a snowflake we only happen once in a lifetime.
Possibly infinitely if you're a Buddhist or into string theory.
I'm guessing your oldman is a lumberjack?
@@ThisFinalHandle no, he retired after 44 years in the Pipe-fitters Union. He helped build and installed piping in Kennedy Space Center's facilities, the new World Trade Center building and "Jerry's World" Stadium in Dallas.
And as humans being "intelligent life", that's saying very little.
Amazing, loved this
A yes! great selection of guest, now pls inv Tony from deep astronomy too pls!
We are alone in the universe 🤔 i feel the data indicates that 🤔 but we need lots more data to make this assertion
I said it over on David Kipping's channel but what really catches my eye on the timing of life's history is the ~1+ billion year gap between the chemical signatures suggestive off aerobic photosynthesis 3.25 Ga and the Great Oxygenation Event(GOE) around 2.4 billion years ago. If life developed oxygen based photosynthesis over 3.25 billion years ago why did it take until 2.4 Ga for run away oxygenation? Personally I have a strong suspicion that it likely has to do with aerobic respiration as all aerobic respiration seems to share a singular origin unlike Sulfur or metal based metabolisms which have wide variability Combining these two ideas if oxygen was poisonous to proto-cyanobacteria then perhaps that is the big gap.
After all soon after the first snowball glaciations associated with the GOE ended we see the Francevillian biota which are very convincing multicellular fossils which appear to be a first failed attempt an multicellularity that never got past an Ediacaran like ecology at least in a way that could fossilize.
On a related note there appears to be an interesting timing for Eukaryotes by molecular clock estimates as they suggest the Last Eukaryotic Common Ancestor (LECA) arose around 1.8 Ga which if true suggests Eukaryotes rapidly developed as the first Eukaryotic fossil evidence is from 1.6 Ga with older more controversial microfossils back towards 1.8 Ga. What I found interesting is studies that compared the divergence timing of Mitochondria from their free living relatives which find they diverged around the same time which seems fairly convincing though I'm no biologist so I can't be sure how much credence molecular clock dating has for such ancient life.
The curious finding that surprised me is that despite their ancient fossil record perhaps as far back as 3.25 Ga modern cyanobacteria only have a last common ancestor from around the same 1.8 Ga interval(with larger error bars however) This could be a coincidence but since the window of uncertainty both are centered around the remarkably precise date of the Sudbury basin impact 1.849 Ga. Given the geology of the time the impact apparently occurred within the shallow seas around the Super Continent Columbia/Nuna depending on the exact configuration of the continents but either way the shallow marine environment around a super continent. The apparent truncation of cyanobacteria is suspiciously similar to the Chicxulub impact except while there was a super continent (which is a major culprit implicated in the Permian extinctions) If so that complicates things and life was limited to the seas. As such perhaps Eukaryotes arose to fill a void left by a mass extinction? This seems plausible as we have found the complex Asgard Archaea which are obligate anaerobes that are so closely related to Eukaryotes that Eukaryotes as a whole fit within one of the groups branches and they seem to have evolved many of the traits needed to make the jump in evolutionary terms. The first and thus far only member of the clade cultured in a laborious effort that took over 12 years found a large tentacled archaea which carries around a species of bacteria and a methanogen archaea. It all leads to an interesting series of questions regarding the time table of life though resoling it further will be far harder.
The GOE may have been delayed after the first appearance of oxygenic photosynthesis by the geological time needed to transform the crust and form continents. The Earth's early crust was thicker than today's, was felsic rather than mafic, and had stagnant lid tectonics like modern Venus. The full set of continental plates with subduction zones and rift/seafloor spreading zones was not fully formed until the middle Proterozoic. Quite a lot of the Earth's hydrosphere has been subducted and is now part of the lithosphere.
The exposed magma at the early spreading zones was highly reduced, and took up oxygen. It may be that the early Earth's crust as well as the global ocean was simply very good at eating oxygen for a long time, and the GOE couldn't happen until the crust been transformed and the continents were well underway.
We need a biogeochemical model of the GOE (and of the entire O2 cycle history of Earth) that takes into account mantle cooling and tectonics, as well as biogenesis of O2 and uptake by reduced materials in the oceans and crust. And later on, uptake by biological respiration, once that becomes a large compartment.
Then we need to test the model not only against Earth's history, but against exoplanet spectral features.
Not to mention how long it took to get to the Cambrian explosion, Followed by a serendipitous series of mass extinction events to shake things up enough (but not so massive to take out all complex life), without which the trend towards intelligence may have been slower. It starts to feel like we got incredibly lucky.
Maybe intelligence requires a series of near deaths for life, a reason for change, be it oxygen or super continents or galactic interference. Often enough to force development, not too often so there is time for rebounds.
What you said.
Kidding!
I'm not a scientist, but find all this very interesting.
A series of die offs, a evolving of the environment to support intelligence. That sounds rather like the evolving Universe in which early stars had poor metalicity and had to cook up the elements to form planets.. perhaps big black holes had to wait for Iron stars before that mechanism of making them could work.
I look forward to watching this episode later tonight! ❤👍
Nice
Both of these channels are awesome