Very common question I’m seeing here, and indeed honestly a very common question students have in my classes about statistics, is what if one of the oldest civilizations applied this reasoning - wouldn’t they get a totally different and wrong answer? Yes they would, but that’s how statistics works! Not everyone is guaranteed to be right every time. The oldest civilizations in this scenario would be the rarest and thus although they would arrive at the wrong answer, the majority of the sample would arrive at the correct answer. Think of it like this - if you state there’s a 90% chance of an event occurring, you will predict the wrong answer 10% of the time. That’s not a failure of statistics, it’s intrinsic to how it works as everything has uncertainty. All we can do in statistics is make *probabilistic* statements e.g. this is the most likely outcome, or this happens 90% of the time. Challenging to explain this in a single comment, it takes students a long time to grasp this concept usually but I hope that helps!
Intriguing and valuable data, sir. However, considering that I, and many others, have personally observed the levitating crafts of extraterrestrial civilizations here on Earth, one might suggest that it is not necessary to seek them out at this juncture, for they are here. Instead, I think that we should focus on elevating our civilization's practices, proving ourselves worthy of contact and communication.
Isn't it more convenient to use the age (stone, bronze, iron) in relation to civilizations? Are we currently in American, Chinese, or perhaps Russian civilization now, or in, say, the information age preceded by the industrial age? I believe that the duration of human life is more related to, for example, the Iron Age than Roman or Ottoman civilization?
I love this channel.. Seriously it's been one of the most thought provoking and inspirational channels I've come across. On top of that, being in lock down I've found this channel so therapeutic- it's a little easier staying positive about the world whenever I see you guys have uploaded a new video. They always reminding me to focus on the big picture.. to remain hopeful, and stay curious.
I am wondering how this thesis accounts for a couple of points: 1. it assumes a constant "rate of threat" which leads to an exponential distribution, and this is almost certainly false. You can make arguments that as a civilization ages, it both creates ways to survive better as well as new threats (similar in animal kingdom to being more likely to live to old age once you survive childhood). 2. I do not see how this proposed model accounts for lifetime of a civilization that spreads beyond its original planet, with each colony facing its own threats and being described by a different exponential. To me the lifetime of the civilization is a blend of whatever distributions the colonies have. This point is probably a case of my first point, the civilization increases its chances of survival through colonies (if rate of colonization is much greater than its lifetime), but decreases them due to potential conflict with colonies.
Since I was a kid, I've found astronomy and the possibility of life outside of our solar system to be fascinating. From an auto mechanic in southern Indiana, I thank you for your content. I am making my way through your library, and just cannot get enough, it keeps my dreams of the stars alive.
I'm surprised Trump cultists can comprehend the existence of a planet beyond one where a game show host conned 70 million people into supporting him and believing his lies no matter what.
Excellent choice! Everyone needs a car and that rock salt will eat right through those vehicles! I left that ice and snow for Florida! You have no clue how fast these cars down here!
I had already prepared a cup of tea before I started watching this video . When he said that, I just smirked to myself . It's always fun to watch his videos when I am calm and cozy .
"Hunter-gatherer society floating a message to us down the river on a piece of wood" Isn't that similar to what we attemped to do with the Voyager probe?
Assume the bottle was found then short after we would a. ("look things up in old data") check Sattellite images b.) start a silent, high flying plane to map their village (aka collect more data) with a lidar through the forest leaves and have a study on them.... but c.) others would jump on the next speed boat and go and "visit" them to become famous (aka direct ruthless encounter). These three possible actions highlight the important problem of -for a civilisation- acting as one! Assume this was not and still is not the case on earth. Therefore it is crutial to the whole meet and greet thing ... asume as well for aliens and almost for sure for us!
The most obvious reason we haven’t contacted another civilization should be obvious - the universe is unimaginably large, and our understanding of physics only allows us to reach a fraction of a fraction of our cosmic neighbors let alone the Milky Way let alone the rest of the universe
Then why haven’t they contacted us? I would say that the most obvious reason is time. It is likely that we aren’t alone but it is unlikely that we will find aliens in the same time as we exist with the same technological progress we have so we are able to communicate. Classical Fermi paradox talk here.
I think they are here. Remember we are only just down from the trees we aren't very advanced we might think we are but it wasn't long ago we invented flight let alone interstellar travel. It's like "Here sit down Alien have a beer and watch the game" and he goes "Is that what you call entertainment right hold said beer we are going for a ride".
Or maybe because only 10% of the population of the world is involved. Imagine humans clean up there acts, educate the world, and see how far humans can rise
Meanwhile that is not even the title of this video ( we haven’t contacted another civilization ) .. we are surrounded by an alien civilization is the title, and the thumb-nail shows Easter Island .. so when are we getting on topic ?? hmmmmmm
@@QueenlySweetpea - I mean if your intention is to be painfully literal... but I think the purpose of the video is to stoke imagination; so imagine we haven’t contacted aliens because the universe is big and our technological development relative to the age of the universe is unbelievably minuscule. And if your intention is to be so blandly literal you can’t appreciate the argument I raise based on what was said during the video, I want nothing to do with your kind 🤷🏼♂️🤷🏼♂️
I know that Cool Worlds would rather be studying a catalog of discovered exo-moons, but the time being put into this channel is a great gift to all of us viewers. Thanks for the awesome content.
This channel is amazing. I randomly found this channel one day ago and I am hooked. Your ability to merge the technical aspect of science with the romance and beauty of the universe. Well done!
The "Dark Forest" theory could be a reason we haven't heard from anyone...Maybe everyone stays quite because they fear the other "hunters in the forest"...It's safe to say in order to become the dominate species on a planet one would have to be a super predator like us. I'm not saying aliens will be the war mongering invaders we see in movies, but they might also not be like the trope of the highly evolved above using violence type either. They may be just like us, an interesting mix of beautiful dreams and horrible nightmares.
I find the dark forest Analogie kind of weird, because it likens it to the beginning of our civilization, and we obviously overcame this phase, and not just once, but all over the world.
@@chandler2 I’d hope you’d be right, but if the alien species didn’t see us as equals it could go very badly. How guilty do you feel wiping out an anthill? We could just be insects to them.
The effect of time causing older civilizations to be more common could be even more extreme when you phrase the question specifically as "which type of civilization are we most likely to find" because older civilizations also are most likely to have spread out among the stars to multiple planets and star systems. Obviously, if they have more territory, we're more likely to run across them (or vice-versa).
worth mentioning regarding the lifetime of civilizations on Earth: the end of a civilization didn't always mean the death of a group of people; sometimes it just meant the same group of people scattered or were under new management. Maybe the data ought to be revised to account for actual extinctions of groups of people
Absolutely loved hearing Carl Sagan's voice again. As a young boy, he sparked a true love of astronomy, and the philosophical pondering of many deep ideas. Hearing his voice again, really brings me back in time....
@@ChineduOpara Agreed! Something about his voice and presentation, really allows people to feel the same childlike wonder that I believe Carl Sagan felt his whole life. This channel, and professor Kipping's voice, also convey the same intelligence and intense love of learning, and always wanting to know more.
@Julian Watson Ha! I can definitely see your point. Still love the memories of watching Cosmos and entering a whole new world that I never knew before as a kid though.
We would indeed be the neighbours from hell. Join us as do our little bit using our music and messages to shine some light in these challenging times. TOGETHER WE ARE STRONGER.
Yeah we’re not exactly a friendly bunch. Superpowers tend to shoot first and ask questions later.. sigh smh. Look up Sentinel Island... that’s basically us in a nutshell.
This content is truly amazing. Having a professor/researcher making videos explaining the incredible complexities of our universe is truly astounding. Whenever he speaks, it's like a cascade of knowledge so well-worded and passionately delivered which is admirably poetic. Honestly, this is an honor. I'm quite passionate for astronomy and this is incredible to me. Probably the greatest channel on RUclips.
Im just an infantryman in the Army on deployment. On my off time i like to watch these videos. However I have to force focus on every word he says because it hurts my grunt brain lmao
Im sjust an infantryman in the Army on deployment. On my off time i like to watch these videos. However I have to force focus on every word he says because it hurts my grunt brain lmao
I think the concept of a Prime Directive (in some form) makes sense for an older civilization to take. The idea of non-interference seems inevitable to me, not because I fantasize about them being morally anthropomorphic, but because the act of not making contact creates less risk potential for drama, war, manipulation, boringness etc... If 'they' are likely to be far more advanced, then their indifference to us and their disinterest in us is somewhat expected. We may even be able to see their worlds, and happen upon some of their ships up close and still be 'cold shouldered' and never communicated with. They might not care unless we were interfering with their interests. I once jotted down an idea for a sci fi story plot. The idea was that a genuinely alien species came from a near-by star say 10-15 lightyears away. This star-faring species was very much hominid looking in appearance, in that they were bipedal, breathed the same gases and tolerated similar gravity/air pressure. They also made audible sounds to communicate, basically a pretty anthropomorphic species. They came to our system and basically started loitering around our moon and even taking up space on two continents in remote areas albeit in small numbers and lightweight ships. Their weapons were not catastrophic but they were continuously being violent. Our attempts to communicate with them and to understand them kept meeting with massacres and human leaders were trying to figure out what to do, considering that the alien's technology was several millennia ahead of humanity and the aliens were showing no signs of wanting to share tech, trade, or even study us. Out of nowhere, a ton more of them show up and begin obliterating satellites, 1st world air bases/missile installations and also killing the inhabitants of a few small South American cities/villages with toxic gas in an effort to annex that geography for themselves. But this is where it gets interesting. Another alien species, completely non-anthropomorphic in appearance and supremely more advanced than both humans and those invaders from Tau Ceti, comes in from Titan (moon of Saturn) and they start whipping the invading aliens butts. The non-anthropomorphic aliens are terrifying in appearance but are protecting humanity. They stand about 9-12 feet tall and are bipedal but they certainly arent anything like a mammal. Their heads resemble an eagle because they have dark beady eyes that dart around and a large ominous beak. They dont speak or make noise beyond the sounds of their devices and tech-suits. They have feather-like skin but mostly theyre covered by the bioengineered suits they wear. Normally you cant make out their face/head because they not only wear helmets but they all have personalized force-fields around them. Later it is found that the force field which distorts light, also disrupts spacetime. The field around their person dilates gravity/time among other things like noble gases, airpressure and temperature. The field enables them to move abruptly and even disappear. Its apparent they like it COLD and must be quite comfortable in conditions that are absolutely inhospitable to humans, "deep cold well below the line" as Ash would say. These Bird Aliens as I call them, wipe out the invading aliens completely. They literally smoke every last one of them in a matter of days. But not only that, they commandeer ALL the invaders' Gen Ships/space vessels/shuttle craft and hand them over to humans as an obvious leg up. We're talking about 6 LARGE Gen ships in orbit, 3 dozen mid-size starships capable of planetary re-entry and a few hundred smaller craft including some land assault vehicles. All the invaders are deceased and all their tech essentially gift wrapped for human reverse engineering. Towards the end, the super Bird Aliens leave as fast as they arrived. Except a dozen of them on one of their ships stays for a few months in northern Russia. The world's best scientists and xeno biologists make slight progress in trying to communicate with the _Berds_ but ultimately not much can be learned because they are so far evolved and superior. The Berds' own offerings, presentations and gestures dont make much sense to us. It is learned though, that they dwell on Titan but are not native to this system although theyve been in the Sol system since well before homo Ergaster roamed Earth 3 million years ago. They presented a crud diagram of Earth when the continents were shifted in the past. We deduced some of their symbols to be an Earth Calendar but the days were off compared to our modern timekeeping. It became evident that they had intervened once (perhaps more) in human affairs following the eruption of a volcano 80,000 years prior on the island of Sumatra. (TOBA ERUPTION). Although its not exactly known from the data we translated, its looks like the Berds relocated some surviving humans during that ancient crisis. Its not known whether they uplifted our genetics at any point but arguments on the topic never seem to end. And then like that, they were gone. The closing of the book reveals an astronomer reviewing James Webb Telescope data, watching a large Berd fleet appearing to leave Titan headed further out towards Neptune but we lost sight of them. No one saw any flashes or evidence of spacetime disruption (as if a wormhole or some fanciful FTL tech was being used) ... they just disappeared. Many Nations are now conglomerating on a mission to explore Titan.
I could fall asleep 😴 listening to this man. Not because he is boring because he is very good at presenting vivid imagery through his explanations. Plus his voice is soothing .
There is also another variable to consider with the longer-lived civilizations. If they lived long enough to create the technology to transcend the planetary boundaries and spread to other planets, then they would no longer be susceptible to the vagaries of a planetary catastrophe. Thus, the longer a civilization exists, the more it has the potential to continue existing after that point. That would mean that some of the red dots would never fade out and push the probability of a civilization being older even higher..
but here another important question arises: will this civilization, distributed across different systems, still be considered one civilization, given the climatic and biological differences of the environments and, thus, the different courses of evolution?
It took a little long to get there, but I’m so glad to finally see a temporal view to other civilizations. I’ve always thought the question of IF there is intelligent life was the wrong question. We should be asking WHEN is the intelligent life, and what is the chance any life could survive long enough to be able to find another life form or be found.
@@rustusandroidI think that the only way to look for life is to start with the assumption that it may be rare but no matter how rare it may be the practically infinite universe makes it almost a certainty. Using the temporal view helps us also see how it’s nearly impossible to ever even find an answer to this question even if it is “common”, it’s practically and nearly statistically impossible to ever interact with another intelligent life form.
@@danielwarren8850 There are 10 to the 95th atom particles in the ENTIRE universe. The different that ways carbon molucules can form is 10 to the 95 BILLIONTH... Only ONE way can support life. THis is an unlikely statistic by chance, and it is ony ONE statistic out of thousands that are similarily unlikely.... So NO, I think you have no idea what you really think you know.
Eheh the Narrator is professor David Kipping. University of London, Cambridge, Harvard... he's a current professor at Columbia University, where he runs the Cool World Lab. So he's not just a narrator. And yes his voice is incredible!
@@DeepUndaInAmsterdam I have the hobby to recommend sci-youtuber to science-fans. I'm often called random or even robot for that, but whatever. I keep going for those few that say 'Yes thanks'.
A bit of an odd consequence of this approach, is that the older we get, the older we should assume other civilizations should be on average. I guess that makes sense, since if we are observing our own civilization survive for longer and longer periods, it would be the safest bet (but of course, only a bet) to guess that other civilizations would be tend to survive for that kind of timespan. Here's hoping for a long-lived humanity, so other aliens out there can enjoy similarly long lives!
the way i see it, earth is the only planet proven to have life on it, and as far as we know this has been a continuous streak, not off and on - 3.8 billion years of uninterrupted life. using this we can see that for life on other planets to exist at the same time as ours it should've existed at least 3.8 billion years before earths life began, or started in the present and has at least 3.8 billion years for us to meet it before its continuation is not most likely or has started somewhere around 1.5 billion years after us and we have only half the time to find em, or we are exactly the same age, meaning that they could go extinct tomorrow and we wouldnt know they were there in the first place, but everything outside of that 7 billion year gap is probably long gone or being in the future doesnt exist yet. this narrows it down quite alot and considering its take so long to even achieve space travel and radio, we probably will not meet any aliens - even if its likely that there are an inquanitfyable number of them out there.
over time and technological advancement it becomes more and more likely that we will find other aliens, around the time that we are able to explore different systems then we could safely assume that some aliens could, but note that as we get older and more advanced coming across civilisations much younger and less advanced than us is more likely - though it is very likely that theyd have an equal amount of life to live as our mean longevities say 6 billlion and 2 billion = 4 billion meaning theyd have 2 billion more, it also becomes more likely for the opposite to happen and for us to meet a much more long lived alien civilisation first, but one thats future was entirely uncertain. lets also remember that time =/= advancement the older civilisation could be much much older but also be made up of tiny photosynthesising insects that are so small or are so well camoflaged we dont even notice them before weve already brutalised and crushed hundreds. they could be entirely gone within a week of first contact, but a much younger civilisation of hyper intelligent six armed monkeys may meet us first and use their advancement and guaranteed longevity as leverage.
Ok I’m sorry but the people grinding wheat in the beginning. Grinding the whole tassel?! That’s not how you process wheat! Ok mini rant over, probably not your fault, proceed. 😆
Awesome to see you here Cody! Big fan! I grabbed that from Andrew Marr’s History of the World show so actually that’s really interesting to hear that they got that wrong
I have to laugh because of a recent post of Facebook. There was a sign on a highway that said, "beware of crossing deer", very common in the northeast. One reader was very angry about this. She posted, "This really pisses me off. Are these people crazy? Why don't they just move that sign down the road where there is less traffic." Tell us why there are so many Socialists in the world. They're just dumb!
Assuming all intelligent species communicate by mental telepathy, we are in the dark to them and them to us. The streetlamp simply isn't even in the same town.
this guy has eyes. either that or the captions read it to him. either way, he's got perception. and that's what you need to detect aliens. Luke Sanchez, you're our only hope.
He said grab a cup of tea, "Explains the powerful truth behind Temporal Bias" one bottle of spirit later & a DMT trip and it turns out that i was already watching this 100 years ago...
I would like to believe that we are the black sheep of the galaxy and everyone avoids us deliberately. Just like my relatives avoid visiting my house because of my wacky grandmother.
We may sit in the middle of a graveyard of incomprehensible scale, the only intelligent beings alive at this time. There may have been thousands of intelligent civilizations before us, and billions to follow, but in the vastness of time, each makes its journey from cradle to grave in complete isolation.
@@availanila I don't know if you've heard of the channel, but if you're interested in astronomy, search Parallax Nick on RUclips sometime. He has a more amateur, yet still very well done channel about astronomy with far too few subscribers for the content he provides.
@@LIGHTandPEACE That's great! I never had a chance to go to college, as I had a family of my own to support, while very young and broke, lol, but it's great to learn about astronomy and the universe nonetheless. It gives me a chance to get away from the stress of life when I listen to this at night whenever possible.
Wow! Where have you been all my RUclips life lol?! Only found your channel today and so glad I did! All the videos are beautifully presented and very clearly and easily explained so a big thanks from me 😊😊
When our civilization was newer, we would capture animals and put them in cages, and show them in traveling circus. Now we are trending to larger zoo enclosures approximating their habitat, or preserves, or just observing them in the wild. I think an older advanced civilization would know how to observe us without being detected if they wanted to; whereas a civ that recently developed interstellar travel would be more likely to abduct someone or be noticed, at least.
Question is are there so many civilizations that saving this one is not a priority or do they go around grabbing samples for preservation of biological data but not culture.
Looking at how beligerent we are to practice violence upon others I would think that a more advanced civilization would choose not to interact with us, unless there was a fundamental gain for them such as having an ally in a interstellar war, gain access to an odd resource or a need to satisfy the curiosity of their scholars to study our planet´s incredible biodiversity
He pointed out in the video that if a civilisation was younger than us we would probably be more likely to contact them given the low risk, so I naturally would assume that another more advanced civilisation would arrive at the same conclusion. But after watching that kurg video about magnitudes of civilisations it convinced me that there actually is never going to be any overlap of extraterrestrial civilisations sadly.
I've just found your channel and watched 4 videos in a row. Thought provoking, informative, non-judgemental ... by any standard, you have a winner. And a new subscriber. Thanks for sharing your knowledge, keen insight and interesting presentations.
One assumption made in this discussion seems to be that technological advancement of civilizations depends on the age of the civilization. I realize that this point doesn’t invalidate the math in this, but I feel like it does play a part in how we envision older/younger civilizations and it certainly would affect our ability to detect them. It’s possible that some intelligent species develop on planets that don’t have the resources (fossil fuels) to become an industrial civilization or to develop the technology to destroy themselves. We could be surrounded by low-tech/no-tech civilizations that are similar to pre-industrial human civilizations but are much, much older than us. This is one of my preferred solutions to the Fermi paradox. We seem to assume that fossil fuels are abundant in the galaxy, but their availability depends on certain conditions occurring and the timing of those events being just right.
We even have a data point that backs this hypothesis: human civilisation basically started thousands of years ago, yet the industrial revolution started only 200 years ago and not even globally. Even on our own planet industrialisation was a historical fluke resulting from very specific circumstances and neither an obvious nor logical consequence of our development.
One of the branches of this hypothesis is that most cases of intelligence emergency could happen in places like moons with subsurface oceans of liquid water as Europa and Enceladus, then we could have plenty of civilizations that rarely discover fire and rarely develop high tecnology and they could be trapped inside those moons without even knowing of the universe outside. Another case is that civilizations could emerge in planets like superearths where the gravity is higher than earth's, and that would get costs of sending satelites and individuals to space higher or even not viable. How would that impact the development of high technology? In both scenarios we could have plenty of older civilizations with less technology than us.
Let me add the old adage 'necessity is the mother of invention'. A general systems collapse (societal collapse) occurs partly when established resources run out, leading to advancements in technology. A civilization on a planet with abundant resources which are easily gathered, distributed and consumed by the population is not going to advance as quickly because there is no perceived need to do so.
At first I thought that you are one of those people that like to hear themselves speak. But then I actually watched your videos about aliens. I think you are inspiring a lot of people , like me, that look up and wonder “how the hell are we alone?”. Thank you sir.
The guy is really not that hard on the ears either. He is as well one of the smart and most interesting auditor I've ever found on these subjects. Glad you came in. All ideas are worth hearing.
@Jack Strawb misspelling one word or going out of your way to be a dick to someone in the comment section of a video to show your superiority. Maybe societies end because everyone eventually acts like that in time.
@@andrewsarchus6036 he said "here on earth" he's saying earth societies. Lots of data on that. Alien no, earth yes. If you mean that doesn't necessarily mean they have any correlation, then yes that would be a good point.
This channel is brain food. I've always sucked at and been intimidated by mathematics but here I get the "gist" of what is discussed. This channel is one of my favourites, thanks.
I strongly agree. I somehow made it through precalculus in high school, though struggling quite a bit, and it still boggles my brain. In the video they casually drop some calculus and I'm nodding along like that makes sense. Fun to work my brain in a way I haven't for a long time.
"You're still half savage, but there is hope. We will contact you when we are ready", A "Metrone", Star Trek 1966. The concepts of empathy, mercy, forgiveness, compassion are an ethereal hazy thought processes we find being "right", noble, correct....but we don't know them fully. It may be that we are fully known by more advanced species, but a specific "hands-off" policy may be in place, so we are not aware of their presence.
@@AlexAlcyone Such a "policy" adhered to by higher beings may only apply to "conscious" aware, intelligent beings...and we are in that particular classification....as crude as we may be.
@@AlexAlcyone Well, we currently think of an advanced lifeform as coming from a biological beginning, an entity evolving from a lower form. Its initial senses could remain in a more "un-needed" form, sight, sound, touch...much as ourselves, with our not-so-needed keen sense of smell. The key would be awareness with thought & those remaining senses...Within these senses, AND our devices & inventions, our awareness has increased. Take vision for example, our sight is abysmally limited, but we can detect, manipulate a whole host of energies well outside of our visual detections of the EM spectrum. Our ancient evolutionary needs did not include detecting RF "signals" nor creations of such. The manipulations of our environments has been profound & lasting, molding our world exactly into want we want, desire or need. Just as I type this at 3"48 PM Tuesday afternoon, , from Mar del Plata Argentina, a sunny warm day outside, yes indeed I'm aware of much, my fellow man walking up the street, dogs barking outside this very moment..yes, I am aware, as you are when you read these very words & process my train of thought.
@Speedbird I understand, (feel me)...Lightspeed travel within interstellar travel would seem key to an advanced species. Just obtaining lightspeed would still be very limiting & would have "visits" very few & far between...Almost as if these sailors of space traveling some 7 KPH along the seas, take a very long time to get somewhere....jet airliner travel still thousands of years in their future.
It occurs to me that we may have been put in a planetary "playpen", when we evolve into something more advanced we will leave on our own to join up with those higher life forms (so far beyond us now) that have left behind the traces of their evolutionary processes we call "Wonders".
don't forget that it's easier to step down than step up your game. so by definition, they have more interest of engaging us than the other way around. because we couldn't figure out how/what to say to them. when they could easily learn our language to come down at our level of communication. faster and easier way IMO. after that we could learn from them. and step up our game.
This is extremely smart content that you’ve put into easy to understand terms. You have a talent for explaining this stuff. That’s a good sign that you really know what you are talking about. Thanks for making these videos!
Dr. Kipping - i know ExoMoons are your jam but just want to say you have a presence, voice and introspection about astronomy at large that rivals anyone since Sagan. You are very engaging and champion of the science.
I'm working my way through your library. This was amazing, and has started conversations with people around me that have not even considered these questions. Thank you for your time and effort.
They have no reason to be friendly towards us. Foreigners have consistently taken advantage of natives and replaced the demography. We just have to look at our history to see that. It is not only limited to humans but most species as there are many invasive species of plants and animals. If they find us first, we are doomed and if we find them first, they are doomed.
@@Brainstorm4300 yeah perhaps, but that's a very human interpretation of what aliens possibly millions of years ahead of us would be. if I were an alien species with advanced technologies then I would find more efficient ways of doing things, they wouldnt say invade us or exploit us because we probably wont even be produce a hair of what they are capable of producing
Hello. Your take on cloak planets took my interest. I've always thought of Sagan's voyager as a giant security breach. They were simply too optimistic. We are fine by ourselves, looking for contact at the expense of information asymmetry only offers danger, in my opinion. A strong flaw in many SETI people's minds is this: An alien may not be formed as "civilization". It seems there are many scales of life from the analogies we can make on earth (my cells, my organs, myself, my family, the human race, my planet): these are scaled and distinguished so clearly only to US. Let alone making contact with another civilization, the alien life that we find might not even have a notion of "communication". These thoughts have me dreaded over the possibility that we can just be erased in a blink out of existence by something out there. It doesn't need to be an epic story of World Warz. Evolution is the only mode of life we know, it doesn't mean it is the only mode of sentience or anything that can be a danger. On the matter of homogeneity: Do not forget the fact that we are trying to determine whether earth is flat or sphere based on our little, small patch of land. We can never fully trust our observations of homogeneity. It is highly biased in many ways. We have evolved based on what Earth had to offer, and what we needed to survive. We have 0 about the extent of things we do not or cannot know. Hell, calculating might be a very primitive way of acquiring information. Knowing might be a very primitive way of understanding. We all know that our minds are not built to understand the universe, but to survive our local environment. We can count because we had to distinguish the number of intruders, preys, predators. We can see an apple seperate from its background because we need that kind of recognition for everything we do. This means "seperation of things" might be just a mode of understanding or bias, or just something peculiar to us (earthlings). I know these are extreme examples but how else can we perceive the vast vagueness of scenarios? Who is to say if an alien sentient being arrives, it will perceive us as something different than earth; just like we unconsciously perceive plants as background stuff of earth? Who is to say that if an alien sentient being arrives it will acknowledge my body as one single sentient being? Who is to say we know what types of sentience there are in our home planet, maybe we are just the cellular formation in a much radically different being that we formed? Who is to say our notion of causality is native to the fabric of the universe? I also want to thank you for bringing statistical insight to these topics, something youtube content is missing altogether and something vital to proper understanding in many subjects. Your point of universe adopting exponential distributions makes me think that, just like matter strives to create heavier and heavier elements through novae, it also strives to create a sentient being that can survive the most dreadful scenarios it can offer. Perhaps, we can even think of it as the ultimate mission of the universe (a nice fantasy to think of): to create a sentient being that can survive the impending doom and break the ultimate cycle of spacetime. Something that can survive the big rip, or the heat death, or the cyclical nature of it all. Sorry for the disoriented text, I like to write as a listen.
This made me thinking that maybe aliens may be so advanced that they no longer even need civilization. Every individual of their race could be perfectly self sufficient in every environment without any dependence on things produced by others. And so that might hinder our attempts to discover them even more.
Seeing us as background information akin to earth, similar to how we see plants as a part of the earth, was insightful. Had never considered that before.
This was a great comment. Had a lot of these thoughts here and there as well but it's hard to put them in language/writing since they are so abstract and probably not even nearly abstract enough. What if the entire solar system/galaxy/universe is the equivalent to what one of the trillions of cells in my body is to me? Or I am to the entirety of humanity (1/7.9B) or even life on earth in general? I think the universe tends to work in analogies and self-symmetrie.
Very true. Our mental filters define our reality and worldview. We're basically ants on the surface of the Earth, and imagine other beings to be our mirror image.
Older technologies eventually become obsolete with time. A more advanced civilization might not be detectable because they no longer use any form of primitive technology that we consider modern. And tehnological development doesn't have to be linear or even follow along the same lines as ours!
Nice video. Statistically sound for sure, but once a civilization becomes multiplanetary their chances of survival probably go up quite a bit because so many of the extinction events no longer wipe them out entirely. This would create an interesting curve.
Istaria, yes, but our past civilizations died out because of us humans ourselves, not because of an asteroid impact, etc. Being multiplanetary does not stop us from fighting against each other like in many places on earth or like in every past civilization. This might be a war between countries or it might be because of unsatisfied people in some countries. And that is not limited to countries, to continents or to neighboring planets.
@@richard--s Definitely, but like the video states, eventually "something will hit the fan" if you stick around too long - it's just a matter of when. It's a good idea to not to stick around until this happens. Of course it's not the only way a species/civilization could fail but you can only resist the RNG gods for so long.
When Sagan says, "They're likely far ahead of us," shortly after the clip you used, he's referring to the idea that they would have moved past radio technology and wouldn't be detectable to our "primitive" SETI of the time.
As opposed to the other 4.5 billion years the planet has been here right? Theres that one tiny sliver of time thats in the 'maybe'.... yeah sure maybe that happened... maybe I'll win the lottery, maybe I'll find those socks that went missing after xmas? Who knows...?
I think our biggest issue would be the question of whether a common disease in one or both of the civilizations could wipe out the other. We would probably want to keep physical distance for that reason. It turns out that's one of the reasons why we don't go down and try to make contact with some remaining societies that have been geographically separated from ours for a long time. This was a very interesting and fun video to watch. Thank you for creating and sharing!
I love how you go into detail regarding the question of distribution. One objection though: I would hope that technological progress will over long enough times decrease the frequency of extinction level events that can’t be dealt with. If that is correct, then neither animal species nor civilizations we‘ve seen so far are good models. We’re not even a type I civ yet.
On one hand, older civilizations are less likely to be destroyed by natural disasters. However, I imagine the chance for self-destruction (or destruction by outside civilizations) increases to account for that, keeping the exponential.
Given that it looks like we're approaching self-destruction (declining west in conflicts with Russia and China which might escalate; oh, and does anyone still discuss climate change now that we all worry about where we get our gas from come winter?), this point might be irrelevant...
@@aguywithanopinion8912 I disagree that it would be exponential. An exponential distribution is memoryless and the mran time between events remains the same. Instead you'd see an exponential curve morph into another exponential curve with a larger mean time between events and then that curve morph again in the same way, etc. This would give you a much fatter tail than a simple exponential.
I haven’t read the paper yet, but a couple of comments: 1. Your model seems to assume that interplanetary/interstellar colonization can’t happen. If it does happen sometimes, then the civilizations that spread out can be expected to live longer since certain types of disasters (eg asteroid impact) would no longer wipe out the whole civ. 2. If you’re right that the average radio-using civ. only lasts 200 years, then this would imply they probably wouldn’t have time to visit us before they ended, and this could explain the Fermi paradox! It’s an interesting model, in any event!
Well, grabbed a pint instead. I really enjoy how well thought out your videos are and I’ve always found the topic of extraterrestrial life fascinating.
This is my new favourite channel. I think I've watched about 4 hours of your channel in the last few days. I can't believe how good the content you're making is. It's like the best aspects of Kurzgesagt, PBS Spacetime, and Vsauce crammed into one. I am looking forward to exploring more of your videos.
The mind-blowing thing about all this is that while it's most likey that humanity is somewhere in the middle there's also the chance that we're the outlier and are the very young or very old civilization.
@@CoolWorldsLab Mr. Cool Guy... Another mind-evacuating realization is that the oldest civilizations may be the least common , but they also are the most widespread . Considering that the first men likely walked about 8-billion years ago , such peoples should, by now , have absolutely monstrous populations by now . They most probably have also genetically engineered themselves into races of gigantic supermen , by now . Omniscient and powerfully telepathic , such dinosaur-sized giants would use their mental abilities to attempt to help the "colonies" rise , and humanize . To examine this subject more closely , read my post at : quora.com/Is-there-a-possibility-that-via-selective-breeding-and-future-advances-in-genetic-engineering-humans-could-become-godlike-beings-masters-of-the-universe-or-multi-verse/ *Concentrate on my post/comments.🙂
@@ALT3REDB3AST On the otherhand the universe hasnt existed for very long and we havent seen any signs of intelligence or life around us. We might be or might become one of the older ones.
The channel is the greatest series since Cosmos. You are the best person since the late Dr Sagan to be able to explain such complex scientific concepts into easily-understood language. Keep up the good work!
I am convinced it is an absolute certainty. We are youngsters in this great cosmos. I came across some free online books that not only confirmed life in the universe, but that life out there is every bit as competitive for resources as our own world is. If anyone is interested they are called "Allies of Humanity".
When people say that more advanced civilizations would have no interest in us, I don't think that is a factor of the age of state of technological advancement. I think the biggest factor would be their familiarity with other forms of life in the universe not originating on their own planet. Just for example, I think we'll continue to be fascinated for a long time by every new iteration of life that we discover in the universe, whether it be microscopic life or a civilization. I think that until we get to the point of understanding the nature of life, every new opportunity to study lifeforms that formed in different conditions will be of the utmost interest. I think that if we discovered a truly isolated stone age tribe on earth, I think we would be fascinated by it, although I would hope we would observe it from a distance so as not to interfere.
They can 100% hear us trying to communicate. I imagine when we become just as advanced, we’ll continue listening on all forms of communication just in case.
If by “they” you mean another civilisation similar to earth, you’re wrong. Try to piece together history with what’s to offer. The answers to why we are on a blue marble roaming in the middle of nowhere surrounded by everywhere is in historical events and knowledge passed down. It really comes down to the simple question, how can life start. And it can’t without a creator
When the idiotic sheeple just keep on wearing their freakin' masks instead of researching to find what a BIG hoax it all is .. and the cliff part is when they drag all the rest of us over the edge with them in their compliance to masks and vaccines ..
@@pickingwithdick4240 .. The virus has never been isolated, purified or past the Koch Postulates test, so basically there is no proof of any virus and now we have this wild story of it mutating. And everyone who sits in front of the TV is brainwashed as if they are under MkUltra. Once you open your eyes you can never close them again. We are in this predicament because people can't get themselves away from the TV long enough to research the lies being pounded into their heads by repetition ( a Communist tactic ) .. This all could have ended last March if people would have got away from the brainwashing being used on the Lamestream News Media. Now I fear the agenda is so far along, nothing can stop it.
@@QueenlySweetpea no proof of any virus... Well, other than the millions who got sick in excess of the average of previous years and the roughly 500-600k+ who died in excess of the average of the previous 5+ years numbers. So hilarious you post this nonsense in a video highlighting statistical analysis 😂. Now that's enough of your nonsense cluttering up this man's very well thought out video content
Great video once again. Me and my long distance girlfriend watch your videos together as soon as I get the notification about them. We both have spoken about many of the topics you cover on your channel and your videos spark even more intrigue and curiosity for us. We spend lots of time discussing and speculating on your videos and thinking even further into the what ifs and hows. Truly inspiring videos, and we genuinely look forward to every new one you create, especially with covid keeping us apart for even longer. Keep up the good work :)
Remember guys. The first iPhone came out just about 14 years ago. Right now I am holding an iPhone XS Max which is basically a mini flatscreen TV that I can literally do anything I want on.
"Over twenty years ago, a group of individuals from several different worlds gathered at a discreet location in our solar system near the Earth for the purpose of observing the alien visitation that is occurring in our world. From their hidden vantage point, they were able to determine the identity, organization and intentions of those visiting our world and monitor the visitors’ activities. This group of observers call themselves the “Allies of Humanity.” This is their report." - Excerpt from The Allies of Humanity Briefings Book 1, which can be read free online at AlliesofHumanity .org
Can you provide any additional information on how a terrestial source like AlliesofHumanity would be able to provide such a statement? What is there basis how are they possibly in contact, Can they prove this in fact what happened, how are these humans able to communicate with this “watching” entity. You should be citing your sources 1st. Its the 21st century. How did they get the privelege of getting contacted by these watchers, Tough tough tough
@@effortlessawareness8778 the Allies of Humanity are an off-world non-human group who have sent their communications to a man named Marshall Vian Summers. Regarding a "proof" of this, I can quote a passage from Allies of Humanity Book 1, in the Q&A section: “*How can people know that you are real?* Regarding our reality, we cannot demonstrate our physical presence to you, and so you must discern the meaning and the import of our words. At this point, it is not merely a matter of belief. It requires a greater recognition, a Knowledge, a resonance. The words we speak we believe are true, but that does not assure that they can be received as such. We cannot control the response to our message. There are people who require more evidence than can possibly be given. For others, such evidence will not be necessary, for they will feel an inner confirmation. In the meantime, perhaps we remain a controversy, and yet we hope and we trust that our words can be considered seriously and that the evidence that does exist, which is substantial, can be gathered and understood by those who are willing to give this their effort and their focus in life. From our perspective, there is no greater problem, challenge and opportunity to receive your attention. Therefore, you are at the beginning of a new understanding. This does require faith and self-reliance. Many will reject our words simply because they do not believe that we could possibly exist. Others perhaps will think that we are part of some manipulation that is being cast upon the world. We cannot control these responses. We can only reveal our message and our presence in your life, however removed that presence may be. It is not our presence here that is of paramount importance, but the message that we have come to reveal and the greater perspective and understanding that we can provide for you. Your education must begin somewhere. All education begins with the desire to know. We hope that through our discourses we can gain at least part of your confidence in order to begin to reveal what we are here to offer."
Pure fantasy with not one shred of evidence. Religion is believing what you*want* to believe, and by the way civilisation means living in cities-no more than that..
Another wonderful video. They always spark my curiosity and wonder. It's amazing to think of the number of possibly short lived civilisations that could have come and gone in the just the short blip of time we have existed at all.
A couple of things - yes, I would leave the primitive society alone. At least, up till now, our interaction with less developed societies has not gone well for them. Perhaps, as we grow and mature, we might be able to find ways to be beneficial to a less advanced species, but I've always liked Roddenberry's prime directive. Also, on the other hand, you mentioned species who are much more technologically advanced than we might not be interested in us - but, considering a sample size of one :) us, maybe they'd still be curious, as well as perhaps find value in living representatives of a point in their past, now long forgotten.
yes hopefully we’d leave them alone so as to not mess with their day to day , but also , we’d have to go and have a look wouldn’t we ! it’s in our nature , whether that be by satellite or quiet drones , or really sneaky whatever else we’ve got , we’d probably set up nearby but far enough away as to be very hard to find , but close enough to peek at what was happening , they might catch glimpses of our ‘tech’ but not be able to work out what it was .. sound familiar ?
Two points: 1) We cannot assume that every intelligent species will follow the same path of scientific and technological development, nor that they would want to or need to. They may also, in fact, have understood the workings of nature different than us and developed a different science and a different physics. There’s is no reason to suspect that our physics is the only physics. They may have different elements and molecular compounds on their planets that we don’t have. I think I even heard Stephen Wolfram say this. So, the point in regards to this problem and the way it is approached is the whole notion of more and less advanced. Since there is no one line of “advancement” to place them all on, it’s difficult to say one is more and another less advanced. They may just be differently advanced. 2) The universe is now estimated to be almost 14 billion years old. The earth is about 4.5 billion years old. Our solar system is young. Life arose about 3.5 billion years ago. Nothing says it would take that long everywhere in the universe for “intelligent” life to evolve. Many Advanced intelligent life forms could have arisen and died out long before the earth even existed. Those don’t really affect this in terms of “now,” but it matters when figuring out how often intelligent life arises and how long it lasts. If it’s far less probable than we might expect and doesn’t last billions of years, could the vast age of the universe lead to a situation in which we find ourselves alone even though many others may have come before? Could we go out into space and find nothing but the sad remnants of long dead civilizations? 2)
Always so inspiring, so intriguing and so mind expanding! Civilizations and their longevity. When I hear David narrating I literally can feel my brain activating and thinking. Now concerning the ages of civilizations, extraterrestrial civilizations, I think that we project our human experience a bit too much on those extraterrestrial civilizations. Who says that they actually reside in civilizations? Perhaps they have a completely different take on that. Plus, concerning technological developments, perhaps they just don't need technology or use technology to thrive and expand. Anyway, I always enjoy listening to David indescribable much. Thank you!
Also consider that the reason why we can listen to the stars, is that humanity developed the technology to do so. However, had the asteroid not struck the Earth 60 million years ago, we may well have had dinosaurs roaming the Earth to this day and humanity may never have gained a foothold. Therefore, it wouldn't be likely that technology would have arrived and as such, the Earth may have remained a silent planet, but still teaming with life. If an alien race had a radio telescope pointing at us, they might assume that Earth had no life on it because it was so silent. It makes one wonder how many silent worlds exist
Great work! I only subscribe to approximately 0.5% of channels after seeing only 1 video:) I always thought most alien civilizations out there would be older than us. Pretty much just based on the fact of how incredibly young we are compared to everything else. I actually would guess its more like 80% older.
@@CoolWorldsLab Ha thanks for the reply! I was just listening to the audio while in the car so I could have easily missed some parts, but I thought I heard 60%. Cool to know my slightly educated guess/intuition was pretty close:)
An interesting concept, can you take this further. If we did discover another more advance life or vice versa, would we be able to communicate with them or based or would they have already become extinct (making an assumption we can't travel faster than light) and in effect we will only be interstellar archaeologist examining the data available through astronomical technologies of civilisations that have died out before the light even gets to us.
@@EdricLysharae , very true, I don't think theirs any shielding that could handle even 5% the speed of light. Who knows what the future brings but the laws of physics r what they r
@@haroldburrows4770, yeah 5% c with our existing understanding sounds right. What I like about scientists, though, is when they see something new or unexpected, they go, "Cool!" I really hope we haven't already written the last chapters in our understanding of space-time. Press on!
Alien life is likely, but there is none that we can see. Therefore, it could be the case that somewhere along the trajectory of life's development, there is a massive and common challenge that ends alien life before it becomes intelligent enough and widespread enough for us to see- A Great Filter. Possibilities assume that the Great Filter is behind us-that humanity is a lucky species that overcame a hurdle almost all other life fails to pass. But What if the filter is ahead of us? It's a very deep rabbit hole
Being someone very interested in sound, there is a documentary here on youtube asking the question: "how would we recognize an alien signal?" A "dolphin scientist" had experiments saying there are patterns of most to least used sound in every language on Earth. He tested to see if the pattern appeared in dolphin sounds: it did. maybe could work for alien transmissions. Doesn't show you what they are saying, only that it really is a language.
If we humans cured death. Aka aging and disease.. And would be naturally immortal.. At most we can only live 9 to 14 thousand years before we slip on a banana or hit by a whale or eaten by flower etc
@@mikejones-vd3fg, answer: Resources. Where is the additional mass for this explosion of life coming from? Another way of looking at what you'd be up against: Our star alone is losing 4.26 million metric tonnes a second due to fusion.
No it isn't. Appreciating the truth of the sentence you've quoted doesn't solve the Fermi Paradox, because we still have to presuppose that *all* or *nearly all* civilizations have short lifetimes and therefore leave behind little evidence of their existences, but we still have to deduce *WHY* civilizations, virtually without exception, have such short lifetimes. The reason for civilizations and civilizational complexes disappearing/dying so quickly is the 'real' solution we're looking for. As an addendum, this explanation would still have to account for why, even if the average civilization leaves behind very little evidence it ever existed owing to a short lifespan, we don't ever come into contact with at least one or two others, or at least see the ruins of their societies, if indeed life, intelligence, technology and civilization are 'common' in the first place. Because if the answer to that is that life, intelligence, technology and civilization are not that 'common', then the sentence you've quoted above, even with the 'why' answered, is only partially a solution to the Paradox, and we'd have to answer why any or all of those four traits are not 'common'.
But of course according to our friends and the math there... well that only accounts for 25% of the fermi paradox civilisations... there's that whole 75% of civilisations left... and, and the 10% that are 10 times older. Even if we consider our 'civilisation' started in 1950 with the advent of digital computers.... then they are enjoying the technological level of 2721 right now. If we consider it at the agricultural revolution in 10k bce.... well they are now living in the year 12,021! The odds of a civilisation not being detectable after 10,000 years of advancing digital technology?
Imagine we could one day have a human lifespan much greater then today. Now imagine that you can connect them to a virtual reality where everything you want is at your disposal. You can assume any form you want, fly, whatever. It would be much safer, as you wouldn't be intereacting with the real world. You could put people till their, let's say 30 years, taking care of the infrastructure, and making new babies to replace those who passed away. That infrastruture can be vey difficult to spot and that kind of civilization might not be interested at all in going elsewhere or try to communicate with other beings. There are millions of things that can explain what we obserbe (or don't observe). Millions of things noone even thought of.
Any advanced civilization here on earth over 10 thousand years old would be very difficult to detect. The pyramids themselves may not be detectable in 10 thousand years. So I don’t think it’s that hard to imagine finding zero trace of any civilization older than 10k years ago.
When asking a complex question with variable unknowns, I find it helpful to bring the question in to something simple and known. Q. "how should we meet and communicate with groups encountered for the first time?" A. "slowly, cautiously, respectfully until information can be exchanged and a common ground can be found to establish trust, ensuring safety and benefit from both sides."
![Twenty One Pilots - The Line (from Arcane Season 2) [Official Audio]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/XCz7WUotXs8/mqdefault.jpg)
Very common question I’m seeing here, and indeed honestly a very common question students have in my classes about statistics, is what if one of the oldest civilizations applied this reasoning - wouldn’t they get a totally different and wrong answer? Yes they would, but that’s how statistics works! Not everyone is guaranteed to be right every time. The oldest civilizations in this scenario would be the rarest and thus although they would arrive at the wrong answer, the majority of the sample would arrive at the correct answer. Think of it like this - if you state there’s a 90% chance of an event occurring, you will predict the wrong answer 10% of the time. That’s not a failure of statistics, it’s intrinsic to how it works as everything has uncertainty. All we can do in statistics is make *probabilistic* statements e.g. this is the most likely outcome, or this happens 90% of the time. Challenging to explain this in a single comment, it takes students a long time to grasp this concept usually but I hope that helps!
Intriguing and valuable data, sir. However, considering that I, and many others, have personally observed the levitating crafts of extraterrestrial civilizations here on Earth, one might suggest that it is not necessary to seek them out at this juncture, for they are here. Instead, I think that we should focus on elevating our civilization's practices, proving ourselves worthy of contact and communication.
However, these much older civilisations would not use the stats/info we do, but have much better maths and tech to inform their analysis.
Isn't it more convenient to use the age (stone, bronze, iron) in relation to civilizations? Are we currently in American, Chinese, or perhaps Russian civilization now, or in, say, the information age preceded by the industrial age? I believe that the duration of human life is more related to, for example, the Iron Age than Roman or Ottoman civilization?
I love this channel.. Seriously it's been one of the most thought provoking and inspirational channels I've come across. On top of that, being in lock down I've found this channel so therapeutic- it's a little easier staying positive about the world whenever I see you guys have uploaded a new video. They always reminding me to focus on the big picture.. to remain hopeful, and stay curious.
I am wondering how this thesis accounts for a couple of points: 1. it assumes a constant "rate of threat" which leads to an exponential distribution, and this is almost certainly false. You can make arguments that as a civilization ages, it both creates ways to survive better as well as new threats (similar in animal kingdom to being more likely to live to old age once you survive childhood). 2. I do not see how this proposed model accounts for lifetime of a civilization that spreads beyond its original planet, with each colony facing its own threats and being described by a different exponential. To me the lifetime of the civilization is a blend of whatever distributions the colonies have. This point is probably a case of my first point, the civilization increases its chances of survival through colonies (if rate of colonization is much greater than its lifetime), but decreases them due to potential conflict with colonies.
Since I was a kid, I've found astronomy and the possibility of life outside of our solar system to be fascinating. From an auto mechanic in southern Indiana, I thank you for your content. I am making my way through your library, and just cannot get enough, it keeps my dreams of the stars alive.
Love your name and I can relate lol 😂 let’s go Brandon!!!!
@@NewsThatMatterUsa Am with you both...roll on 2024
I'm surprised Trump cultists can comprehend the existence of a planet beyond one where a game show host conned 70 million people into supporting him and believing his lies no matter what.
Excellent choice! Everyone needs a car and that rock salt will eat right through those vehicles!
I left that ice and snow for Florida!
You have no clue how fast these cars down here!
love your comment
He said, “grab a cup of tea” so I paused the video and did just that! This channel is vital for great ideas.
I grabbed a beer😉
I had already prepared a cup of tea before I started watching this video . When he said that, I just smirked to myself .
It's always fun to watch his videos when I am calm and cozy .
Youngimperialist Mk II I grabbed 2 after you lol.
@Adam Battersby And I immediately thought of Isaac Arthur's advice to "grab a drink and a snack" for his videos.
Thanks for the heads up now I can make some in advance before the video starts
"Hunter-gatherer society floating a message to us down the river on a piece of wood" Isn't that similar to what we attemped to do with the Voyager probe?
Assume the bottle was found then short after we would a. ("look things up in old data") check Sattellite images b.) start a silent, high flying plane to map their village (aka collect more data) with a lidar through the forest leaves and have a study on them.... but c.) others would jump on the next speed boat and go and "visit" them to become famous (aka direct ruthless encounter).
These three possible actions highlight the important problem of -for a civilisation- acting as one! Assume this was not and still is not the case on earth.
Therefore it is crutial to the whole meet and greet thing ... asume as well for aliens and almost for sure for us!
Exactly we see ourselves as the advanced species looking for a primitive species when we could be the primitive species ourselves
To be fair, from what I read the Voyager Messag was meant to be more symbolic than anything. They didn't really expect that someone would find it
@@KaoKacique pretty much the same as that primitive tribe floating a message down the river....
Any aliens who find Voyager will discover that we basically sent them nudes and directions to our 'house'
Among all the crappy channels, you stand out as something very different. no ufos , and ancient alien
nonsense. Thank you for intelligent content
So a channel that doesn't challenge your world view. Wow, amazing.
lol I get what you mean but aliens have been here wanted or not
@@rdaws73 "challenging your worldview" is generally code for conspiracy theorist nonsense masquerading as science
@@diegotravieso8947 Few and far between. I do like The Why Files too. That channel is a good listen for interesting stories.
Surprisingly unintelligent responses here. Just accept that there is no concrete evidence of aliens. Yet. All else is speculation at the moment.
The most obvious reason we haven’t contacted another civilization should be obvious - the universe is unimaginably large, and our understanding of physics only allows us to reach a fraction of a fraction of our cosmic neighbors let alone the Milky Way let alone the rest of the universe
Then why haven’t they contacted us? I would say that the most obvious reason is time. It is likely that we aren’t alone but it is unlikely that we will find aliens in the same time as we exist with the same technological progress we have so we are able to communicate. Classical Fermi paradox talk here.
I think they are here. Remember we are only just down from the trees we aren't very advanced we might think we are but it wasn't long ago we invented flight let alone interstellar travel. It's like "Here sit down Alien have a beer and watch the game" and he goes "Is that what you call entertainment right hold said beer we are going for a ride".
Or maybe because only 10% of the population of the world is involved. Imagine humans clean up there acts, educate the world, and see how far humans can rise
Meanwhile that is not even the title of this video ( we haven’t contacted another civilization ) .. we are surrounded by an alien civilization is the title, and the thumb-nail shows Easter Island .. so when are we getting on topic ?? hmmmmmm
@@QueenlySweetpea - I mean if your intention is to be painfully literal... but I think the purpose of the video is to stoke imagination; so imagine we haven’t contacted aliens because the universe is big and our technological development relative to the age of the universe is unbelievably minuscule. And if your intention is to be so blandly literal you can’t appreciate the argument I raise based on what was said during the video, I want nothing to do with your kind 🤷🏼♂️🤷🏼♂️
What a refreshing documentary on this subject!
I love the pace and how these ideas are presented. I am staying home and binge watching them all:)
All we can do is extrapolate. Time will tell, hopefully.
Awesome doc
Hey I watch your videos
Indeed.
I know that Cool Worlds would rather be studying a catalog of discovered exo-moons, but the time being put into this channel is a great gift to all of us viewers. Thanks for the awesome content.
Haha well we enjoy both research and communicating science, so these videos are a joy to make for us too
@@CoolWorldsLab never
@@CoolWorldsLab gonna
@@CoolWorldsLab give
@@CoolWorldsLab you
This channel is amazing. I randomly found this channel one day ago and I am hooked. Your ability to merge the technical aspect of science with the romance and beauty of the universe. Well done!
The "Dark Forest" theory could be a reason we haven't heard from anyone...Maybe everyone stays quite because they fear the other "hunters in the forest"...It's safe to say in order to become the dominate species on a planet one would have to be a super predator like us. I'm not saying aliens will be the war mongering invaders we see in movies, but they might also not be like the trope of the highly evolved above using violence type either. They may be just like us, an interesting mix of beautiful dreams and horrible nightmares.
@@chandler2I hope you’re right, though with the sheer number of conspiracy theorists that exist, they would find a reason to disbelieve it.
I find the dark forest Analogie kind of weird, because it likens it to the beginning of our civilization, and we obviously overcame this phase, and not just once, but all over the world.
Do not answer! Do not answer!! Do not answer!!!
@@chandler2 I’d hope you’d be right, but if the alien species didn’t see us as equals it could go very badly. How guilty do you feel wiping out an anthill? We could just be insects to them.
I’m a Liu Cixin fan as well. I believe he coined the term.
Legend has it he's still out there liking comments.
The effect of time causing older civilizations to be more common could be even more extreme when you phrase the question specifically as "which type of civilization are we most likely to find" because older civilizations also are most likely to have spread out among the stars to multiple planets and star systems. Obviously, if they have more territory, we're more likely to run across them (or vice-versa).
I agree. We have barely turned the first page on the history of the universe. The great barrier is not space, but time.
@@EdricLysharae Not time. But; WILL.
@@Le-rh1fi, can't argue with that. It takes courage and resolve to leave the cradle.
@@EdricLysharae Right On Brother and you also @jmmahony.
worth mentioning regarding the lifetime of civilizations on Earth: the end of a civilization didn't always mean the death of a group of people; sometimes it just meant the same group of people scattered or were under new management. Maybe the data ought to be revised to account for actual extinctions of groups of people
Yeah, citing a 'Fall of Rome' that ignores the Eastern Roman "Byzantine" Empire always makes me skeptical of data on 'lifetime of civilizations.'
Absolutely loved hearing Carl Sagan's voice again. As a young boy, he sparked a true love of astronomy, and the philosophical pondering of many deep ideas. Hearing his voice again, really brings me back in time....
@@ChineduOpara Agreed! Something about his voice and presentation, really allows people to feel the same childlike wonder that I believe Carl Sagan felt his whole life. This channel, and professor Kipping's voice, also convey the same intelligence and intense love of learning, and always wanting to know more.
@Julian Watson Ha! I can definitely see your point. Still love the memories of watching Cosmos and entering a whole new world that I never knew before as a kid though.
Did you also have sexual desires for Mr Sagan ?
@@johnfyten3392 okay thank you for clarifying, I was just concerned.
@Julian Watson.....Wtf is a boomer-centric cosmos?...can't wait to hear this one!!
Aliens probably lock their doors when they fly near Earth.
They make sure the kids are looking out the windows, though, so they can witness all the plight we Earthlings have down here.
one of my alien friends visiting Earth telepathically in my head wanted me to reply to your comment w a "LOL". So here's its response ...."LOL".
We would indeed be the neighbours from hell. Join us as do our little bit using our music and messages to shine some light in these challenging times. TOGETHER WE ARE STRONGER.
Indeed, or strengthen their forcefields. I'd have to guess that most stay far away as we seek to avoid bad neighborhoods.
Yeah we’re not exactly a friendly bunch. Superpowers tend to shoot first and ask questions later.. sigh smh. Look up Sentinel Island... that’s basically us in a nutshell.
This content is truly amazing. Having a professor/researcher making videos explaining the incredible complexities of our universe is truly astounding. Whenever he speaks, it's like a cascade of knowledge so well-worded and passionately delivered which is admirably poetic.
Honestly, this is an honor. I'm quite passionate for astronomy and this is incredible to me. Probably the greatest channel on RUclips.
OUR universe??
🌝🐣👬👨🏻🦯🤦🏻♂️
@@Laurencemardon yes, the Universe we currently reside in, it is reasonable to call it "ours" since it's our home.
Im just an infantryman in the Army on deployment. On my off time i like to watch these videos. However I have to force focus on every word he says because it hurts my grunt brain lmao
Im sjust an infantryman in the Army on deployment. On my off time i like to watch these videos. However I have to force focus on every word he says because it hurts my grunt brain lmao
I think the concept of a Prime Directive (in some form) makes sense for an older civilization to take. The idea of non-interference seems inevitable to me, not because I fantasize about them being morally anthropomorphic, but because the act of not making contact creates less risk potential for drama, war, manipulation, boringness etc... If 'they' are likely to be far more advanced, then their indifference to us and their disinterest in us is somewhat expected. We may even be able to see their worlds, and happen upon some of their ships up close and still be 'cold shouldered' and never communicated with. They might not care unless we were interfering with their interests.
I once jotted down an idea for a sci fi story plot. The idea was that a genuinely alien species came from a near-by star say 10-15 lightyears away. This star-faring species was very much hominid looking in appearance, in that they were bipedal, breathed the same gases and tolerated similar gravity/air pressure. They also made audible sounds to communicate, basically a pretty anthropomorphic species. They came to our system and basically started loitering around our moon and even taking up space on two continents in remote areas albeit in small numbers and lightweight ships. Their weapons were not catastrophic but they were continuously being violent. Our attempts to communicate with them and to understand them kept meeting with massacres and human leaders were trying to figure out what to do, considering that the alien's technology was several millennia ahead of humanity and the aliens were showing no signs of wanting to share tech, trade, or even study us.
Out of nowhere, a ton more of them show up and begin obliterating satellites, 1st world air bases/missile installations and also killing the inhabitants of a few small South American cities/villages with toxic gas in an effort to annex that geography for themselves.
But this is where it gets interesting. Another alien species, completely non-anthropomorphic in appearance and supremely more advanced than both humans and those invaders from Tau Ceti, comes in from Titan (moon of Saturn) and they start whipping the invading aliens butts. The non-anthropomorphic aliens are terrifying in appearance but are protecting humanity. They stand about 9-12 feet tall and are bipedal but they certainly arent anything like a mammal. Their heads resemble an eagle because they have dark beady eyes that dart around and a large ominous beak. They dont speak or make noise beyond the sounds of their devices and tech-suits. They have feather-like skin but mostly theyre covered by the bioengineered suits they wear. Normally you cant make out their face/head because they not only wear helmets but they all have personalized force-fields around them. Later it is found that the force field which distorts light, also disrupts spacetime. The field around their person dilates gravity/time among other things like noble gases, airpressure and temperature. The field enables them to move abruptly and even disappear. Its apparent they like it COLD and must be quite comfortable in conditions that are absolutely inhospitable to humans, "deep cold well below the line" as Ash would say.
These Bird Aliens as I call them, wipe out the invading aliens completely. They literally smoke every last one of them in a matter of days. But not only that, they commandeer ALL the invaders' Gen Ships/space vessels/shuttle craft and hand them over to humans as an obvious leg up. We're talking about 6 LARGE Gen ships in orbit, 3 dozen mid-size starships capable of planetary re-entry and a few hundred smaller craft including some land assault vehicles. All the invaders are deceased and all their tech essentially gift wrapped for human reverse engineering. Towards the end, the super Bird Aliens leave as fast as they arrived. Except a dozen of them on one of their ships stays for a few months in northern Russia. The world's best scientists and xeno biologists make slight progress in trying to communicate with the _Berds_ but ultimately not much can be learned because they are so far evolved and superior. The Berds' own offerings, presentations and gestures dont make much sense to us. It is learned though, that they dwell on Titan but are not native to this system although theyve been in the Sol system since well before homo Ergaster roamed Earth 3 million years ago. They presented a crud diagram of Earth when the continents were shifted in the past. We deduced some of their symbols to be an Earth Calendar but the days were off compared to our modern timekeeping.
It became evident that they had intervened once (perhaps more) in human affairs following the eruption of a volcano 80,000 years prior on the island of Sumatra. (TOBA ERUPTION). Although its not exactly known from the data we translated, its looks like the Berds relocated some surviving humans during that ancient crisis. Its not known whether they uplifted our genetics at any point but arguments on the topic never seem to end. And then like that, they were gone. The closing of the book reveals an astronomer reviewing James Webb Telescope data, watching a large Berd fleet appearing to leave Titan headed further out towards Neptune but we lost sight of them. No one saw any flashes or evidence of spacetime disruption (as if a wormhole or some fanciful FTL tech was being used) ... they just disappeared. Many Nations are now conglomerating on a mission to explore Titan.
So what I got from this is that there is a observation post on or near titan?
I want to read this book
Please make it
Wow! That has to be the longest RUclips post I've never read. 🤔
Mate, that sounds really cool. Try and write it, I'd be interested
One problem they find out we eat birds and they wipe us all out...
I could fall asleep 😴 listening to this man. Not because he is boring because he is very good at presenting vivid imagery through his explanations. Plus his voice is soothing .
I’ve been following this channel for about a year and this dude are so underrated. You should have millions of subscribers. Share people.
Indeed.. This channel is mind blowing..
Production value is right up there with the best PBS/BBC doc's
This dude "IS" so underrated.
....Not "ARE" !!!!!🙄
English might be a second or third language them or they could be very tired. Either way it’s a RUclips comet
@Jesse Dover "everything is vibration" Einstein...why would proper English be in the equation?
There is also another variable to consider with the longer-lived civilizations. If they lived long enough to create the technology to transcend the planetary boundaries and spread to other planets, then they would no longer be susceptible to the vagaries of a planetary catastrophe. Thus, the longer a civilization exists, the more it has the potential to continue existing after that point. That would mean that some of the red dots would never fade out and push the probability of a civilization being older even higher..
but here another important question arises: will this civilization, distributed across different systems, still be considered one civilization, given the climatic and biological differences of the environments and, thus, the different courses of evolution?
It took a little long to get there, but I’m so glad to finally see a temporal view to other civilizations. I’ve always thought the question of IF there is intelligent life was the wrong question. We should be asking WHEN is the intelligent life, and what is the chance any life could survive long enough to be able to find another life form or be found.
It's bad science to skip the initial question on life. It's far from settled.
Also that, if life does exist, is it so rare that it - probability wise - occurs once in a galaxy? Once in a local group? Ones in a super cluster?
Good thought
@@rustusandroidI think that the only way to look for life is to start with the assumption that it may be rare but no matter how rare it may be the practically infinite universe makes it almost a certainty. Using the temporal view helps us also see how it’s nearly impossible to ever even find an answer to this question even if it is “common”, it’s practically and nearly statistically impossible to ever interact with another intelligent life form.
@@danielwarren8850 There are 10 to the 95th atom particles in the ENTIRE universe. The different that ways carbon molucules can form is 10 to the 95 BILLIONTH... Only ONE way can support life. THis is an unlikely statistic by chance, and it is ony ONE statistic out of thousands that are similarily unlikely.... So NO, I think you have no idea what you really think you know.
Narrator : Sit back, have A cup of tea with me.
Me : LETS DO THIS... *While having a beer & smoking a joint*
Thats my man, i like That 😂♥️
Giant resin ball and a whiskey.
Relaxing after work 🌿🍺
Shatter & scotch.
Full Moon Fever and a Corona😂Yeah,Been Drinking Longer Than The Virus Has Been Around
This was very pleasant to watch. The narrator's voice is nice. Good job on the production overall. I subscribed
Eheh the Narrator is professor David Kipping. University of London, Cambridge, Harvard... he's a current professor at Columbia University, where he runs the Cool World Lab. So he's not just a narrator. And yes his voice is incredible!
@@DeepUndaInAmsterdam soundd really good until you hear Sagan talk :)
@@DeepUndaInAmsterdam I have the hobby to recommend sci-youtuber to science-fans.
I'm often called random or even robot for that, but whatever. I keep going for those few
that say 'Yes thanks'.
@@b4zs1 pale blue dot is arguably the best speech ever conceived by humanity. And also yes!! His voice is amazing too!
@@DeepUndaInAmsterdam sounds similar to Prof Brian Cox!
A bit of an odd consequence of this approach, is that the older we get, the older we should assume other civilizations should be on average. I guess that makes sense, since if we are observing our own civilization survive for longer and longer periods, it would be the safest bet (but of course, only a bet) to guess that other civilizations would be tend to survive for that kind of timespan. Here's hoping for a long-lived humanity, so other aliens out there can enjoy similarly long lives!
This is the problem of having only one data point...
the way i see it, earth is the only planet proven to have life on it, and as far as we know this has been a continuous streak, not off and on - 3.8 billion years of uninterrupted life.
using this we can see that for life on other planets to exist at the same time as ours it should've existed at least 3.8 billion years before earths life began, or started in the present and has at least 3.8 billion years for us to meet it before its continuation is not most likely or has started somewhere around 1.5 billion years after us and we have only half the time to find em, or we are exactly the same age, meaning that they could go extinct tomorrow and we wouldnt know they were there in the first place, but everything outside of that 7 billion year gap is probably long gone or being in the future doesnt exist yet. this narrows it down quite alot and considering its take so long to even achieve space travel and radio, we probably will not meet any aliens - even if its likely that there are an inquanitfyable number of them out there.
over time and technological advancement it becomes more and more likely that we will find other aliens, around the time that we are able to explore different systems then we could safely assume that some aliens could, but note that as we get older and more advanced coming across civilisations much younger and less advanced than us is more likely - though it is very likely that theyd have an equal amount of life to live as our mean longevities say 6 billlion and 2 billion = 4 billion meaning theyd have 2 billion more, it also becomes more likely for the opposite to happen and for us to meet a much more long lived alien civilisation first, but one thats future was entirely uncertain. lets also remember that time =/= advancement the older civilisation could be much much older but also be made up of tiny photosynthesising insects that are so small or are so well camoflaged we dont even notice them before weve already brutalised and crushed hundreds. they could be entirely gone within a week of first contact, but a much younger civilisation of hyper intelligent six armed monkeys may meet us first and use their advancement and guaranteed longevity as leverage.
Ok I’m sorry but the people grinding wheat in the beginning. Grinding the whole tassel?! That’s not how you process wheat!
Ok mini rant over, probably not your fault, proceed. 😆
Awesome to see you here Cody! Big fan! I grabbed that from Andrew Marr’s History of the World show so actually that’s really interesting to hear that they got that wrong
@@CoolWorldsLab....Actually, in those days, everything on the wheat plant was ground...they wasted nothing!
THAT is actually used as an analogy in the Bible by Yahweh!
You elwheatist Cody! 😂👍🏻
@kenneth dinning - Wild Raccoon's But what about the Jews!?
Won't somebody think of the Jews!? 😉👍🏻
Searching for alien civilizations via radio is like a drunk looking for his keys under the streetlamp. It's where we can see.
Looolz..
... or the keys are obscured by our drunken shadow
I have to laugh because of a recent post of Facebook. There was a sign on a highway that said, "beware of crossing deer", very common in the northeast. One reader was very angry about this. She posted, "This really pisses me off. Are these people crazy? Why don't they just move that sign down the road where there is less traffic." Tell us why there are so many Socialists in the world. They're just dumb!
If you eyes are working, then you also saw some unnatural elements here .
Assuming all intelligent species communicate by mental telepathy, we are in the dark to them and them to us. The streetlamp simply isn't even in the same town.
This is what my math teacher expects me to do when she says find x.
Me and My maths Teacher had sex twice
@@lucyluck9564 your teacher and I need to introduction.
@@AksamRafiz he's a man 👨 👏
@@lucyluck9564 oh no
Found it.... its right between W and Y
Thumbnail: 🗿
Brilliant comment, you're a genius.
@@YoghurtEquity no need to thank me
🍷🗿
this guy has eyes. either that or the captions read it to him. either way, he's got perception. and that's what you need to detect aliens. Luke Sanchez, you're our only hope.
@@suites.74 real
“You get the point, you’ve lived through 2020.”
I like this guy, a lot. He’s sharp, and keeps my interest. Subscribed!
You are my favourite narrator Professor Kipping. What a wonderful calming voice you have.
He said grab a cup of tea, "Explains the powerful truth behind Temporal Bias" one bottle of spirit later & a DMT trip and it turns out that i was already watching this 100 years ago...
Turns out you've been watching it for eternity.
@@zZrEtRiBuTiOnZz spot on. you follow actualized.org?
@@dradexx Nah, idk what that is.
@@dradexx nah, but that first one. Guided exercise for realizing you're God. 😉
@@nikmacfarlane6117 the answers to the universe in one podcast
I would like to believe that we are the black sheep of the galaxy and everyone avoids us deliberately. Just like my relatives avoid visiting my house because of my wacky grandmother.
I would simply like to say thank you for taking the time to make such fascinating and entertaining videos. Wonderful stuff!
Love your calming vibe as you present mind boggling themes and concepts.
I have a next door neighbour that is an elderly spinster and she reminds me of early alien civilisations.
Greetings from Italy.
We may sit in the middle of a graveyard of incomprehensible scale, the only intelligent beings alive at this time. There may have been thousands of intelligent civilizations before us, and billions to follow, but in the vastness of time, each makes its journey from cradle to grave in complete isolation.
Can we just take a moment and appreciate how he can put amazing background music. I love your voice your channel all the way from Ethiopia.
This is one of the best channels I've found on RUclips. He takes his time, and produces beautifully produced videos.
Yes, it is such high quality work.
@@availanila I don't know if you've heard of the channel, but if you're interested in astronomy, search Parallax Nick on RUclips sometime. He has a more amateur, yet still very well done channel about astronomy with far too few subscribers for the content he provides.
@@johnfyten3392 I love space stuff. Thank you for your recommendation to this beautiful channel. I already subscribed.
@@LIGHTandPEACE That's great! I never had a chance to go to college, as I had a family of my own to support, while very young and broke, lol, but it's great to learn about astronomy and the universe nonetheless. It gives me a chance to get away from the stress of life when I listen to this at night whenever possible.
Wow! Where have you been all my RUclips life lol?! Only found your channel today and so glad I did! All the videos are beautifully presented and very clearly and easily explained so a big thanks from me 😊😊
@@jg1174 John I was just going to say that, well said...
I rarely comment on videos but I loved this one! from my point of view: older civilizations would only observe us without interact.
When our civilization was newer, we would capture animals and put them in cages, and show them in traveling circus. Now we are trending to larger zoo enclosures approximating their habitat, or preserves, or just observing them in the wild. I think an older advanced civilization would know how to observe us without being detected if they wanted to; whereas a civ that recently developed interstellar travel would be more likely to abduct someone or be noticed, at least.
Question is are there so many civilizations that saving this one is not a priority or do they go around grabbing samples for preservation of biological data but not culture.
Looking at how beligerent we are to practice violence upon others I would think that a more advanced civilization would choose not to interact with us, unless there was a fundamental gain for them such as having an ally in a interstellar war, gain access to an odd resource or a need to satisfy the curiosity of their scholars to study our planet´s incredible biodiversity
He pointed out in the video that if a civilisation was younger than us we would probably be more likely to contact them given the low risk, so I naturally would assume that another more advanced civilisation would arrive at the same conclusion. But after watching that kurg video about magnitudes of civilisations it convinced me that there actually is never going to be any overlap of extraterrestrial civilisations sadly.
I've just found your channel and watched 4 videos in a row. Thought provoking, informative, non-judgemental ... by any standard, you have a winner. And a new subscriber. Thanks for sharing your knowledge, keen insight and interesting presentations.
There’s nothing better than seeing a new Cool Worlds video being released.
Agreed
@Brad Viviviyal Good one
One assumption made in this discussion seems to be that technological advancement of civilizations depends on the age of the civilization. I realize that this point doesn’t invalidate the math in this, but I feel like it does play a part in how we envision older/younger civilizations and it certainly would affect our ability to detect them.
It’s possible that some intelligent species develop on planets that don’t have the resources (fossil fuels) to become an industrial civilization or to develop the technology to destroy themselves. We could be surrounded by low-tech/no-tech civilizations that are similar to pre-industrial human civilizations but are much, much older than us. This is one of my preferred solutions to the Fermi paradox. We seem to assume that fossil fuels are abundant in the galaxy, but their availability depends on certain conditions occurring and the timing of those events being just right.
We even have a data point that backs this hypothesis: human civilisation basically started thousands of years ago, yet the industrial revolution started only 200 years ago and not even globally. Even on our own planet industrialisation was a historical fluke resulting from very specific circumstances and neither an obvious nor logical consequence of our development.
@@totalermist Which means that civilisations like us who can become a space farming species could be extremely rare.
One of the branches of this hypothesis is that most cases of intelligence emergency could happen in places like moons with subsurface oceans of liquid water as Europa and Enceladus, then we could have plenty of civilizations that rarely discover fire and rarely develop high tecnology and they could be trapped inside those moons without even knowing of the universe outside.
Another case is that civilizations could emerge in planets like superearths where the gravity is higher than earth's, and that would get costs of sending satelites and individuals to space higher or even not viable. How would that impact the development of high technology?
In both scenarios we could have plenty of older civilizations with less technology than us.
Let me add the old adage 'necessity is the mother of invention'. A general systems collapse (societal collapse) occurs partly when established resources run out, leading to advancements in technology. A civilization on a planet with abundant resources which are easily gathered, distributed and consumed by the population is not going to advance as quickly because there is no perceived need to do so.
@@newdefsys Excellent point.
I'm happy that you acknowledged the Indus Valley civilization, almost everybody seems to overlook it!
Good ole Eurocentricism for ya
At first I thought that you are one of those people that like to hear themselves speak. But then I actually watched your videos about aliens. I think you are inspiring a lot of people , like me, that look up and wonder “how the hell are we alone?”. Thank you sir.
The guy is really not that hard on the ears either. He is as well one of the smart and most interesting auditor I've ever found on these subjects. Glad you came in. All ideas are worth hearing.
There's a lot of data here to support cyclicle societies here on earth. Very interesting!
@Jack Strawb misspelling one word or going out of your way to be a dick to someone in the comment section of a video to show your superiority. Maybe societies end because everyone eventually acts like that in time.
@@andrewsarchus6036 he said "here on earth" he's saying earth societies. Lots of data on that. Alien no, earth yes. If you mean that doesn't necessarily mean they have any correlation, then yes that would be a good point.
@@andrewsarchus6036 If you think assumptions are what was presented here then you are not nearly as smart as you think you are.
@@andrewsarchus6036 YOU'RE SPECIAL ED!!
And it seems we're at the end of ours.
“ORGANIC CIVILISATIONS RISE, EVOLVE, ADVANCE AND AT THE APEX OF THEIR GLORY, THEY ARE EXTINGUISHED.” - Sovereign
You are nothing.
hehe i got that reference
Love the editing of this one! Thanks for the inspiring content you give us so often. Your channel is one of my favorites.
This channel is brain food. I've always sucked at and been intimidated by mathematics but here I get the "gist" of what is discussed. This channel is one of my favourites, thanks.
I strongly agree. I somehow made it through precalculus in high school, though struggling quite a bit, and it still boggles my brain. In the video they casually drop some calculus and I'm nodding along like that makes sense. Fun to work my brain in a way I haven't for a long time.
"You're still half savage, but there is hope. We will contact you when we are ready", A "Metrone", Star Trek 1966. The concepts of empathy, mercy, forgiveness, compassion are an ethereal hazy thought processes we find being "right", noble, correct....but we don't know them fully.
It may be that we are fully known by more advanced species, but a specific "hands-off" policy may be in place, so we are not aware of their presence.
@@AlexAlcyone Such a "policy" adhered to by higher beings may only apply to "conscious" aware, intelligent beings...and we are in that particular classification....as crude as we may be.
@@AlexAlcyone Well, we currently think of an advanced lifeform as coming from a biological beginning, an entity evolving from a lower form. Its initial senses could remain in a more "un-needed" form, sight, sound, touch...much as ourselves, with our not-so-needed keen sense of smell. The key would be awareness with thought & those remaining senses...Within these senses, AND our devices & inventions, our awareness has increased. Take vision for example, our sight is abysmally limited, but we can detect, manipulate a whole host of energies well outside of our visual detections of the EM spectrum. Our ancient evolutionary needs did not include detecting RF "signals" nor creations of such. The manipulations of our environments has been profound & lasting, molding our world exactly into want we want, desire or need. Just as I type this at 3"48 PM Tuesday afternoon, , from Mar del Plata Argentina, a sunny warm day outside, yes indeed I'm aware of much, my fellow man walking up the street, dogs barking outside this very moment..yes, I am aware, as you are when you read these very words & process my train of thought.
@Speedbird I understand, (feel me)...Lightspeed travel within interstellar travel would seem key to an advanced species. Just obtaining lightspeed would still be very limiting & would have "visits" very few & far between...Almost as if these sailors of space traveling some 7 KPH along the seas, take a very long time to get somewhere....jet airliner travel still thousands of years in their future.
It occurs to me that we may have been put in a planetary "playpen", when we evolve into something more advanced we will leave on our own to join up with those higher life forms (so far beyond us now) that have left behind the traces of their evolutionary processes we call "Wonders".
I rarely watch videos over 10 min on RUclips, except for this channel! Amazing content!
I believe they would rather leave us be until we "grow up" some more.
Well they'll be waiting a hell of a long time 😂
don't forget that it's easier to step down than step up your game. so by definition, they have more interest of engaging us than the other way around. because we couldn't figure out how/what to say to them. when they could easily learn our language to come down at our level of communication. faster and easier way IMO. after that we could learn from them. and step up our game.
Those untapped oil reserves, damn those alines😡😡😡
This is extremely smart content that you’ve put into easy to understand terms. You have a talent for explaining this stuff. That’s a good sign that you really know what you are talking about. Thanks for making these videos!
Dr. Kipping - i know ExoMoons are your jam but just want to say you have a presence, voice and introspection about astronomy at large that rivals anyone since Sagan. You are very engaging and champion of the science.
"You get the idea...you lived through 2020" lmao
@Odinson Warrior if 2021 isn't worse lol
Mark my words; 2020 is not over yet.
2020 is a speeding car on the sidewalk driven by a drunk driver and we arent out of gas yet.
@@therainbow5562.....don't need no stinking bonus!
I feel so called out right now lol
I am not a physics students but I develop some real appreciation of statistics by watching your videos
I'm working my way through your library. This was amazing, and has started conversations with people around me that have not even considered these questions. Thank you for your time and effort.
Interesting. I hope they are friendly too :S
I wouldn't worry. We have nothing a star-spanning species would need.
pretty sure it's them who need to worry about that, just a guess though.
@@gibber1944 unless they need us.
They have no reason to be friendly towards us. Foreigners have consistently taken advantage of natives and replaced the demography. We just have to look at our history to see that. It is not only limited to humans but most species as there are many invasive species of plants and animals. If they find us first, we are doomed and if we find them first, they are doomed.
@@Brainstorm4300 yeah perhaps, but that's a very human interpretation of what aliens possibly millions of years ahead of us would be. if I were an alien species with advanced technologies then I would find more efficient ways of doing things, they wouldnt say invade us or exploit us because we probably wont even be produce a hair of what they are capable of producing
Just discovered this channel. Such high-quality, careful, insightful content. This is what all pop science should be like.
Hello. Your take on cloak planets took my interest. I've always thought of Sagan's voyager as a giant security breach. They were simply too optimistic. We are fine by ourselves, looking for contact at the expense of information asymmetry only offers danger, in my opinion.
A strong flaw in many SETI people's minds is this: An alien may not be formed as "civilization". It seems there are many scales of life from the analogies we can make on earth (my cells, my organs, myself, my family, the human race, my planet): these are scaled and distinguished so clearly only to US. Let alone making contact with another civilization, the alien life that we find might not even have a notion of "communication". These thoughts have me dreaded over the possibility that we can just be erased in a blink out of existence by something out there. It doesn't need to be an epic story of World Warz.
Evolution is the only mode of life we know, it doesn't mean it is the only mode of sentience or anything that can be a danger.
On the matter of homogeneity: Do not forget the fact that we are trying to determine whether earth is flat or sphere based on our little, small patch of land. We can never fully trust our observations of homogeneity. It is highly biased in many ways. We have evolved based on what Earth had to offer, and what we needed to survive. We have 0 about the extent of things we do not or cannot know. Hell, calculating might be a very primitive way of acquiring information. Knowing might be a very primitive way of understanding.
We all know that our minds are not built to understand the universe, but to survive our local environment. We can count because we had to distinguish the number of intruders, preys, predators. We can see an apple seperate from its background because we need that kind of recognition for everything we do. This means "seperation of things" might be just a mode of understanding or bias, or just something peculiar to us (earthlings). I know these are extreme examples but how else can we perceive the vast vagueness of scenarios?
Who is to say if an alien sentient being arrives, it will perceive us as something different than earth; just like we unconsciously perceive plants as background stuff of earth? Who is to say that if an alien sentient being arrives it will acknowledge my body as one single sentient being? Who is to say we know what types of sentience there are in our home planet, maybe we are just the cellular formation in a much radically different being that we formed? Who is to say our notion of causality is native to the fabric of the universe?
I also want to thank you for bringing statistical insight to these topics, something youtube content is missing altogether and something vital to proper understanding in many subjects. Your point of universe adopting exponential distributions makes me think that, just like matter strives to create heavier and heavier elements through novae, it also strives to create a sentient being that can survive the most dreadful scenarios it can offer. Perhaps, we can even think of it as the ultimate mission of the universe (a nice fantasy to think of): to create a sentient being that can survive the impending doom and break the ultimate cycle of spacetime. Something that can survive the big rip, or the heat death, or the cyclical nature of it all.
Sorry for the disoriented text, I like to write as a listen.
👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽
This made me thinking that maybe aliens may be so advanced that they no longer even need civilization. Every individual of their race could be perfectly self sufficient in every environment without any dependence on things produced by others. And so that might hinder our attempts to discover them even more.
Seeing us as background information akin to earth, similar to how we see plants as a part of the earth, was insightful. Had never considered that before.
This was a great comment. Had a lot of these thoughts here and there as well but it's hard to put them in language/writing since they are so abstract and probably not even nearly abstract enough.
What if the entire solar system/galaxy/universe is the equivalent to what one of the trillions of cells in my body is to me? Or I am to the entirety of humanity (1/7.9B) or even life on earth in general? I think the universe tends to work in analogies and self-symmetrie.
Very true. Our mental filters define our reality and worldview. We're basically ants on the surface of the Earth, and imagine other beings to be our mirror image.
Older technologies eventually become obsolete with time. A more advanced civilization might not be detectable because they no longer use any form of primitive technology that we consider modern. And tehnological development doesn't have to be linear or even follow along the same lines as ours!
Nice video. Statistically sound for sure, but once a civilization becomes multiplanetary their chances of survival probably go up quite a bit because so many of the extinction events no longer wipe them out entirely. This would create an interesting curve.
Yep a lot of limitations, as expected for such theoretical discussions
Istaria, yes, but our past civilizations died out because of us humans ourselves, not because of an asteroid impact, etc.
Being multiplanetary does not stop us from fighting against each other like in many places on earth or like in every past civilization.
This might be a war between countries or it might be because of unsatisfied people in some countries. And that is not limited to countries, to continents or to neighboring planets.
Might be similar to human lifestyle expectancy when adding medicine etc
@@richard--s Definitely, but like the video states, eventually "something will hit the fan" if you stick around too long - it's just a matter of when. It's a good idea to not to stick around until this happens. Of course it's not the only way a species/civilization could fail but you can only resist the RNG gods for so long.
@@eowendyl yes, you are true. Good points!
That interstellar music should be used every time in your videos. It makes it sound so epic and interesting!!
11:52 "You get it, you lived through 2020." Best line of the vid!
Have not made it yet
In the future: what happened in 2020?
When Sagan says, "They're likely far ahead of us," shortly after the clip you used, he's referring to the idea that they would have moved past radio technology and wouldn't be detectable to our "primitive" SETI of the time.
Such an insightful video, I really enjoy the curious mindset you induce to the audience!
I just subscribed to the channel - you make astronomy really palatable for curious minds! Thank you and keep up the good work!
Maybe they already visit us when we are still in younger age like summerian civ.
maybe
We are probably an award winning national geographic/reality TV show to them.
Hope it's not the final season😬
I just came from a Fall of Civilizations podcast about Sumerians ...
As opposed to the other 4.5 billion years the planet has been here right? Theres that one tiny sliver of time thats in the 'maybe'.... yeah sure maybe that happened... maybe I'll win the lottery, maybe I'll find those socks that went missing after xmas? Who knows...?
I quote the simple phrase of yours which marked me years ago and made me love your channel: "We simply don't know".
I think our biggest issue would be the question of whether a common disease in one or both of the civilizations could wipe out the other. We would probably want to keep physical distance for that reason. It turns out that's one of the reasons why we don't go down and try to make contact with some remaining societies that have been geographically separated from ours for a long time. This was a very interesting and fun video to watch. Thank you for creating and sharing!
Agreed
I love how you go into detail regarding the question of distribution. One objection though: I would hope that technological progress will over long enough times decrease the frequency of extinction level events that can’t be dealt with. If that is correct, then neither animal species nor civilizations we‘ve seen so far are good models. We’re not even a type I civ yet.
While we can't be too sure of the slope of the distribution, it is likely that the underlying model would still be exponential in nature.
Perhaps this is the basis of the Great Filter hypothesis.
On one hand, older civilizations are less likely to be destroyed by natural disasters. However, I imagine the chance for self-destruction (or destruction by outside civilizations) increases to account for that, keeping the exponential.
Given that it looks like we're approaching self-destruction (declining west in conflicts with Russia and China which might escalate; oh, and does anyone still discuss climate change now that we all worry about where we get our gas from come winter?), this point might be irrelevant...
@@aguywithanopinion8912 I disagree that it would be exponential. An exponential distribution is memoryless and the mran time between events remains the same. Instead you'd see an exponential curve morph into another exponential curve with a larger mean time between events and then that curve morph again in the same way, etc. This would give you a much fatter tail than a simple exponential.
Glad I held off on that blunt before watching this, I would have been lost...
Damn... so thats why my basic math failed me... Advice welcome... but far too late!
or found even a deeper meaning
I’m too late lol
Scott Steiner math makes more sense
Wish I did 🥺
I haven’t read the paper yet, but a couple of comments:
1. Your model seems to assume that interplanetary/interstellar colonization can’t happen. If it does happen sometimes, then the civilizations that spread out can be expected to live longer since certain types of disasters (eg asteroid impact) would no longer wipe out the whole civ.
2. If you’re right that the average radio-using civ. only lasts 200 years, then this would imply they probably wouldn’t have time to visit us before they ended, and this could explain the Fermi paradox!
It’s an interesting model, in any event!
Great video. I will not pretend to understand everything covered but I am glad there are people in the world like you who try to explain it.
Exactly my thoughts.
Well, grabbed a pint instead. I really enjoy how well thought out your videos are and I’ve always found the topic of extraterrestrial life fascinating.
This is my new favourite channel. I think I've watched about 4 hours of your channel in the last few days. I can't believe how good the content you're making is. It's like the best aspects of Kurzgesagt, PBS Spacetime, and Vsauce crammed into one. I am looking forward to exploring more of your videos.
This man, has one of the most layered and probing minds, of my life time. An incredible orator.
The mind-blowing thing about all this is that while it's most likey that humanity is somewhere in the middle there's also the chance that we're the outlier and are the very young or very old civilization.
Indeed, it’s a lower probability by virtue but startling to think about!
@@CoolWorldsLab
Mr. Cool Guy...
Another mind-evacuating realization is that the oldest civilizations may be the least common , but they also are the most widespread .
Considering that the first men likely walked about 8-billion years ago , such peoples should, by now , have absolutely
monstrous populations by now . They most probably have also genetically engineered themselves into races of gigantic supermen , by now .
Omniscient and powerfully telepathic , such dinosaur-sized giants would use their mental abilities to attempt to help the "colonies" rise , and humanize .
To examine this subject more closely , read my post at :
quora.com/Is-there-a-possibility-that-via-selective-breeding-and-future-advances-in-genetic-engineering-humans-could-become-godlike-beings-masters-of-the-universe-or-multi-verse/
*Concentrate on my post/comments.🙂
Take our rapid technological progression over the last 2-300 hundred years and I'd wager that we are an infant civilization.
@@ALT3REDB3AST On the otherhand the universe hasnt existed for very long and we havent seen any signs of intelligence or life around us. We might be or might become one of the older ones.
@@ALT3REDB3AST contemplate where the tech coming from rr
The channel is the greatest series since Cosmos. You are the best person since the late Dr Sagan to be able to explain such complex scientific concepts into easily-understood language. Keep up the good work!
I am convinced it is an absolute certainty. We are youngsters in this great cosmos. I came across some free online books that not only confirmed life in the universe, but that life out there is every bit as competitive for resources as our own world is. If anyone is interested they are called "Allies of Humanity".
The message from the Allies of Humanity is very interesting, mainly due to the realistic view on life in the universe, I recommend, thank you.
Thank you . It is very important information.
Thank you!
Thank you, ALW.
Your convinced by what?
When people say that more advanced civilizations would have no interest in us, I don't think that is a factor of the age of state of technological advancement. I think the biggest factor would be their familiarity with other forms of life in the universe not originating on their own planet. Just for example, I think we'll continue to be fascinated for a long time by every new iteration of life that we discover in the universe, whether it be microscopic life or a civilization. I think that until we get to the point of understanding the nature of life, every new opportunity to study lifeforms that formed in different conditions will be of the utmost interest.
I think that if we discovered a truly isolated stone age tribe on earth, I think we would be fascinated by it, although I would hope we would observe it from a distance so as not to interfere.
They can 100% hear us trying to communicate. I imagine when we become just as advanced, we’ll continue listening on all forms of communication just in case.
Once we're advanced enough, we'll understand why highly advanced species don't spoil us with technical splendor
How can you b 100% sure there hearing us, how would they hear us ?
@@ZoomNotice If i knew how advanced aliens communicate and listen to us, I’d get a Nobel Prize and be a billionaire. 😂
@@jstudios-nqy yea but y would post the first comment
If by “they” you mean another civilisation similar to earth, you’re wrong. Try to piece together history with what’s to offer. The answers to why we are on a blue marble roaming in the middle of nowhere surrounded by everywhere is in historical events and knowledge passed down. It really comes down to the simple question, how can life start. And it can’t without a creator
as I watch this, I wonder when our civilization "falls off" the exponential cliff.
When the idiotic sheeple just keep on wearing their freakin' masks instead of researching to find what a BIG hoax it all is .. and the cliff part is when they drag all the rest of us over the edge with them in their compliance to masks and vaccines ..
@@QueenlySweetpea well there’s a thoughtful and intelligent retort.......... not.
@@pickingwithdick4240 .. The virus has never been isolated, purified or past the Koch Postulates test, so basically there is no proof of any virus and now we have this wild story of it mutating. And everyone who sits in front of the TV is brainwashed as if they are under MkUltra. Once you open your eyes you can never close them again. We are in this predicament because people can't get themselves away from the TV long enough to research the lies being pounded into their heads by repetition ( a Communist tactic ) .. This all could have ended last March if people would have got away from the brainwashing being used on the Lamestream News Media. Now I fear the agenda is so far along, nothing can stop it.
@@QueenlySweetpea no proof of any virus... Well, other than the millions who got sick in excess of the average of previous years and the roughly 500-600k+ who died in excess of the average of the previous 5+ years numbers. So hilarious you post this nonsense in a video highlighting statistical analysis 😂. Now that's enough of your nonsense cluttering up this man's very well thought out video content
@@QueenlySweetpea when all else fails just blurt out something ludicrous, now watch your step near the cliff
Great video once again. Me and my long distance girlfriend watch your videos together as soon as I get the notification about them. We both have spoken about many of the topics you cover on your channel and your videos spark even more intrigue and curiosity for us. We spend lots of time discussing and speculating on your videos and thinking even further into the what ifs and hows. Truly inspiring videos, and we genuinely look forward to every new one you create, especially with covid keeping us apart for even longer. Keep up the good work :)
That’s awesome! So glad our videos help give you guys something to chat about!
Wow, Tristan-that’s a really sweet thing for a couple to do together.
How far away is she 50 100 thousand years
If you are doubting the existence of older alien civilizations, you need to study the Megaliths in depth.
Remember guys. The first iPhone came out just about 14 years ago. Right now I am holding an iPhone XS Max which is basically a mini flatscreen TV that I can literally do anything I want on.
My $80 phone does the same thing.
@@scottashe984 meh. Maybe but it’s definitely slower than a flagship device.
"Over twenty years ago, a group of individuals from several different worlds gathered at a discreet location in our solar system near the Earth for the purpose of observing the alien visitation that is occurring in our world. From their hidden vantage point, they were able to determine the identity, organization and intentions of those visiting our world and monitor the visitors’ activities. This group of observers call themselves the “Allies of Humanity.” This is their report."
- Excerpt from The Allies of Humanity Briefings Book 1, which can be read free online at AlliesofHumanity .org
Thank you, Levy.
Can you provide any additional information on how a terrestial source like AlliesofHumanity would be able to provide such a statement? What is there basis how are they possibly in contact, Can they prove this in fact what happened, how are these humans able to communicate with this “watching” entity.
You should be citing your sources 1st. Its the 21st century. How did they get the privelege of getting contacted by these watchers,
Tough tough tough
Loonies
@@effortlessawareness8778 the Allies of Humanity are an off-world non-human group who have sent their communications to a man named Marshall Vian Summers. Regarding a "proof" of this, I can quote a passage from Allies of Humanity Book 1, in the Q&A section:
“*How can people know that you are real?*
Regarding our reality, we cannot demonstrate our physical presence to you, and so you must discern the meaning and the import of our words. At this point, it is not merely a matter of belief. It requires a greater recognition, a Knowledge, a resonance. The words we speak we believe are true, but that does not assure that they can be received as such. We cannot control the response to our message. There are people who require more evidence than can possibly be given. For others, such evidence will not be necessary, for they will feel an inner confirmation.
In the meantime, perhaps we remain a controversy, and yet we hope and we trust that our words can be considered seriously and that the evidence that does exist, which is substantial, can be gathered and understood by those who are willing to give this their effort and their focus in life. From our perspective, there is no greater problem, challenge and opportunity to receive your attention.
Therefore, you are at the beginning of a new understanding. This does require faith and self-reliance. Many will reject our words simply because they do not believe that we could possibly exist. Others perhaps will think that we are part of some manipulation that is being cast upon the world. We cannot control these responses. We can only reveal our message and our presence in your life, however removed that presence may be. It is not our presence here that is of paramount importance, but the message that we have come to reveal and the greater perspective and understanding that we can provide for you. Your education must begin somewhere. All education begins with the desire to know.
We hope that through our discourses we can gain at least part of your confidence in order to begin to reveal what we are here to offer."
Pure fantasy with not one shred of evidence. Religion is believing what you*want* to believe, and by the way civilisation means living in cities-no more than that..
Another wonderful video. They always spark my curiosity and wonder. It's amazing to think of the number of possibly short lived civilisations that could have come and gone in the just the short blip of time we have existed at all.
Yes! I thought that too. How much diversity and experiments took place that we will never know about...
Say what you want this channel NEVER DISAPPOINTS 💥‼️🤖
A couple of things - yes, I would leave the primitive society alone. At least, up till now, our interaction with less developed societies has not gone well for them. Perhaps, as we grow and mature, we might be able to find ways to be beneficial to a less advanced species, but I've always liked Roddenberry's prime directive.
Also, on the other hand, you mentioned species who are much more technologically advanced than we might not be interested in us - but, considering a sample size of one :) us, maybe they'd still be curious, as well as perhaps find value in living representatives of a point in their past, now long forgotten.
yes hopefully we’d leave them alone so as to not mess with their day to day , but also , we’d have to go and have a look wouldn’t we ! it’s in our nature , whether that be by satellite or quiet drones , or really sneaky whatever else we’ve got , we’d probably set up nearby but far enough away as to be very hard to find , but close enough to peek at what was happening , they might catch glimpses of our ‘tech’ but not be able to work out what it was .. sound familiar ?
Two points:
1) We cannot assume that every intelligent species will follow the same path of scientific and technological development, nor that they would want to or need to. They may also, in fact, have understood the workings of nature different than us and developed a different science and a different physics. There’s is no reason to suspect that our physics is the only physics. They may have different elements and molecular compounds on their planets that we don’t have. I think I even heard Stephen Wolfram say this. So, the point in regards to this problem and the way it is approached is the whole notion of more and less advanced. Since there is no one line of “advancement” to place them all on, it’s difficult to say one is more and another less advanced. They may just be differently advanced.
2) The universe is now estimated to be almost 14 billion years old. The earth is about 4.5 billion years old. Our solar system is young. Life arose about 3.5 billion years ago. Nothing says it would take that long everywhere in the universe for “intelligent” life to evolve. Many Advanced intelligent life forms could have arisen and died out long before the earth even existed. Those don’t really affect this in terms of “now,” but it matters when figuring out how often intelligent life arises and how long it lasts. If it’s far less probable than we might expect and doesn’t last billions of years, could the vast age of the universe lead to a situation in which we find ourselves alone even though many others may have come before? Could we go out into space and find nothing but the sad remnants of long dead civilizations?
2)
intelligence doesn't even mean humanoid, they could be intelligent but trapped in bodies that are useless like dolphins or whales.
Always so inspiring, so intriguing and so mind expanding! Civilizations and their longevity. When I hear David narrating I literally can feel my brain activating and thinking. Now concerning the ages of civilizations, extraterrestrial civilizations, I think that we project our human experience a bit too much on those extraterrestrial civilizations. Who says that they actually reside in civilizations? Perhaps they have a completely different take on that. Plus, concerning technological developments, perhaps they just don't need technology or use technology to thrive and expand. Anyway, I always enjoy listening to David indescribable much. Thank you!
Also consider that the reason why we can listen to the stars, is that humanity developed the technology to do so. However, had the asteroid not struck the Earth 60 million years ago, we may well have had dinosaurs roaming the Earth to this day and humanity may never have gained a foothold. Therefore, it wouldn't be likely that technology would have arrived and as such, the Earth may have remained a silent planet, but still teaming with life. If an alien race had a radio telescope pointing at us, they might assume that Earth had no life on it because it was so silent. It makes one wonder how many silent worlds exist
Great work! I only subscribe to approximately 0.5% of channels after seeing only 1 video:)
I always thought most alien civilizations out there would be older than us. Pretty much just based on the fact of how incredibly young we are compared to everything else. I actually would guess its more like 80% older.
Well we get 75% so we’re in close agreement! Thanks for joining us
@@CoolWorldsLab Ha thanks for the reply! I was just listening to the audio while in the car so I could have easily missed some parts, but I thought I heard 60%. Cool to know my slightly educated guess/intuition was pretty close:)
Amazing, I was opening my mouth for a rebuttal at 14:00 when He cut me off to address it lol. Love this.
An interesting concept, can you take this further. If we did discover another more advance life or vice versa, would we be able to communicate with them or based or would they have already become extinct (making an assumption we can't travel faster than light) and in effect we will only be interstellar archaeologist examining the data available through astronomical technologies of civilisations that have died out before the light even gets to us.
I'm glad some else understands what vast distances were talking about
The great challenge is not distance, but time.
@@EdricLysharae , very true, I don't think theirs any shielding that could handle even 5% the speed of light. Who knows what the future brings but the laws of physics r what they r
@@haroldburrows4770, yeah 5% c with our existing understanding sounds right. What I like about scientists, though, is when they see something new or unexpected, they go, "Cool!" I really hope we haven't already written the last chapters in our understanding of space-time. Press on!
Alien life is likely, but there is none that we can see. Therefore, it could be the case that somewhere along the trajectory of life's development, there is a massive and common challenge that ends alien life before it becomes intelligent enough and widespread enough for us to see- A Great Filter. Possibilities assume that the Great Filter is behind us-that humanity is a lucky species that overcame a hurdle almost all other life fails to pass. But What if the filter is ahead of us? It's a very deep rabbit hole
Being someone very interested in sound,
there is a documentary here on youtube asking the question:
"how would we recognize an alien signal?"
A "dolphin scientist" had experiments saying there are patterns of most to least used sound in every language on Earth.
He tested to see if the pattern appeared in dolphin sounds:
it did.
maybe could work for alien transmissions.
Doesn't show you what they are saying, only that it really is a language.
“On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.” - Tyler Durden
From the moment of birth there's only one absolute. Of all the myriad possibilities in life only one is a guarantee.
who says life cant rise exponentially creating a gravitational force so huge that it brings the universe back to a big crunch?
If we humans cured death. Aka aging and disease.. And would be naturally immortal.. At most we can only live 9 to 14 thousand years before we slip on a banana or hit by a whale or eaten by flower etc
@@mikejones-vd3fg, answer: Resources. Where is the additional mass for this explosion of life coming from? Another way of looking at what you'd be up against: Our star alone is losing 4.26 million metric tonnes a second due to fusion.
@@EdricLysharae how about the additional mass comes from where the original mass came from in the first place?
"If a civilization has a short lifetime, then it will leave behind less evidence of it's existence."
Solution to the Fermi Paradox right there.
No it isn't. Appreciating the truth of the sentence you've quoted doesn't solve the Fermi Paradox, because we still have to presuppose that *all* or *nearly all* civilizations have short lifetimes and therefore leave behind little evidence of their existences, but we still have to deduce *WHY* civilizations, virtually without exception, have such short lifetimes. The reason for civilizations and civilizational complexes disappearing/dying so quickly is the 'real' solution we're looking for.
As an addendum, this explanation would still have to account for why, even if the average civilization leaves behind very little evidence it ever existed owing to a short lifespan, we don't ever come into contact with at least one or two others, or at least see the ruins of their societies, if indeed life, intelligence, technology and civilization are 'common' in the first place. Because if the answer to that is that life, intelligence, technology and civilization are not that 'common', then the sentence you've quoted above, even with the 'why' answered, is only partially a solution to the Paradox, and we'd have to answer why any or all of those four traits are not 'common'.
But of course according to our friends and the math there... well that only accounts for 25% of the fermi paradox civilisations... there's that whole 75% of civilisations left... and, and the 10% that are 10 times older. Even if we consider our 'civilisation' started in 1950 with the advent of digital computers.... then they are enjoying the technological level of 2721 right now. If we consider it at the agricultural revolution in 10k bce.... well they are now living in the year 12,021! The odds of a civilisation not being detectable after 10,000 years of advancing digital technology?
Imagine we could one day have a human lifespan much greater then today. Now imagine that you can connect them to a virtual reality where everything you want is at your disposal. You can assume any form you want, fly, whatever. It would be much safer, as you wouldn't be intereacting with the real world. You could put people till their, let's say 30 years, taking care of the infrastructure, and making new babies to replace those who passed away. That infrastruture can be vey difficult to spot and that kind of civilization might not be interested at all in going elsewhere or try to communicate with other beings. There are millions of things that can explain what we obserbe (or don't observe). Millions of things noone even thought of.
Any advanced civilization here on earth over 10 thousand years old would be very difficult to detect. The pyramids themselves may not be detectable in 10 thousand years. So I don’t think it’s that hard to imagine finding zero trace of any civilization older than 10k years ago.
@@spinfrost After 1 million years you could still see the faces at Mount Rushmore.
I just love and appreciate your videos so much. They are always so well done! Thank you
When asking a complex question with variable unknowns, I find it helpful to bring the question in to something simple and known.
Q. "how should we meet and communicate with groups encountered for the first time?"
A. "slowly, cautiously, respectfully until information can be exchanged and a common ground can be found to establish trust, ensuring safety and benefit from both sides."