I truly appreciate people in the RUclips community who also participate in the real scientific community and publish papers and get time on JWST etc. David is a real hero in the science community. Pushing science forward and explaining it in laymens terms for the rest of us and producing top quality content for us all to consume. Great work having him on the program so many times. Best of the best.
@@wheredowegofromhere79 prior to the invasion by the hoards of mind numbingly dumb illiterate savages there was a rather large region in the middle of England where everybody had this specific vocabulary. Some, as I, call it Oxfordian, others quite derogatory call it posh English and others will simply stare at you with a stupid look on their face. That's unfortunately 75 percent of England and about 97 percent of the US.
There’s an octopus garden that was recently found around San Francisco. Just like the Beatles sang 🎤 🎶, maybe part of y’ ( Y’s club) beatlejuice is otw and a 2nd movie 🎥 coming. I just look from a weird view’ a true frootloop 🌈3 days til Christmas 🤶🎄🎅 🌈💯🗽🔥❄️. Because of the WONDERFUL THINGS SHE DOES! I follow GOD, LOVE. And definitely 💯 Peace on EARTH 🌏 AMEN 🙏 (11:26amen)🆙🙌🏖️🎁
@@trippyliquids Indeed, and Clarkes three laws. 1. _When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong._ 2. _The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible._ 3. _Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic._ I've tried to live by that second one. 😉
@@SirAntoniousBlock Good fiction and describing reality are typically not compatible. E.g. Most distinguished but elderly scientists are stating that it's impossible for there to be no other life in the Universe besides Earth. Clarke's first law would say they're wrong.
it's crazy how far the cool worlds channel has come. I remember when david first came on and even made a whole presentation about subbing that i just had to
I rarely if ever hear about what importance access to fossil fuels had on our evolution to a technological society. What if it was common to have a species get to where we were 500 years ago but they didn’t have hundreds of millions of years worth of stored hydrocarbons to accelerate their growth? Is it even possible? If everything was the same in our history but there was no coal or oil where would we be now?
I completely agree with you. Makes sense. But I do wonder if a civilization would just immediately resort to wind and hyrdo power and later solar. That would have a definite impact on how their society evolves. Who knows what that would look like.
This is quite an interesting question! I've NEVER heard anyone speak on the topic. Maybe it'd just add like another 100,000 years to getting to an equivalent of where we are now? Maybe it'd force humanities hand to harness much greener energy sources without even knowing the bullet they'd avoided.
For sure there would be more back breaking, hard work in the field, just to sustain yourself and your family. Renewables are great, but there would be no cars for a while.
@@blakeb9964 could we even invent solar or wind to produce electricity given that it requires mining metals and creating composite materials/ circuit boards etc which would be rather challenging without motorised mining equipment. Can metal be smelted in large volumes using only wood or charcoal?
We have just found out there is a 13 billion year movie running at the local cinema, have rushed to the cinema bought the popcorn and without time to clean the smudges from our glasses, walked in to the cinema and are now trying to find a seat in the darkness of the cinema, all all while only one frame of the movie has been shown. Don't expect to find ET anytime soon. Am 😊 with this expectation.
Was just listening to Dr Kipping talking with Jordan Peterson on the Daily Wire. He is masterful at discussing his research and other topics slightly differently for different audiences without the elitist attitude and talking down to people that comes with some other physicists and cosmology scientists. A class act.
@@spiritualanarchist8162 Yeah, imagine actually talking with people you don't agree with on every single topic. You realise that is very cultish behaviour, don't you? I could actually ask what exactly is 'dark' about Peterson or the Daily Wire but I doubt that much sense would come my way if I did. Feel free to demonstrate otherwise.
@@spiritualanarchist8162 So asking a question is projection now, good take champ. I never accused you of anything. The cultish behaviour is refusing to discuss ideas that you don't agree with and demonizing the people who have them instead. I did not know that you were an adherent of that kind of behaviour or if you were just being sarcastic. But now I do. It is telling that you can't find anything specific to criticise Peterson with, he is just on the 'dark side' Don't worry, most people in a cult do not realise they are in one and they die blissfully ignorant
@@spindoctor6385I agree. I dislike Peterson but I also find it valuable to listen to views different from my own, when people can articulate them. I'm not sure what happened to "liberals" over the last 20 years, they've become as censorious as Christians during the 80s Satanic Panic.
So, Dr Kipping's main point here, if I understand him correctly: Either the Universe typically makes intelligent life on any reasonably suitable planets, or it very rarely does. Very interesting. I'm reminded of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, which says that systems will get more and more disordered over time. The reason for the increasing disorder is that there is just one state of perfect order, but there are enormous numbers of different states of disorder. Perhaps we can see the emergence of intelligent life in the same vein. Perhaps there is one long path of very many steps required to create intelligent life, and there are huge numbers of ways to screw up one of more of these necessary steps. If so, it follows naturally that extremely few planets will be able to create intelligent life.
Fantastic video! The conversation about Bayesian statistics and the future likelihood of civilizations appearing is extremely interesting. Dr. Kipping's insights make the complex topic accessible and engaging for all viewers.🥰
Having watched Dr. Kipping's video on this, importantly he doesn't rule out intelligent ET. The analysis doesn't rule out other civilizations, just that the parameter space for them seems to be extremely low, maybe even zero. We just don't know how low it is, thus he does mention in the paper there is likely more potential to find ET if we start looking outside the milky way as the numbers get much bigger. I hope I'm making sense distilling this.
If there is no life in our galaxy besides us, we will never communicate with an alien intelligence. Looking beyond our galaxy the best case scenario is seeing evidence of a type 3 civilization remaking it's galaxy.....hundreds of millions of years ago.
Personally I am of the opinion that are understanding of science is sufficiently incomplete that we don’t know how to listen in on the “great intragalactic party line”.
Love Dr. Kipping!! I know his is a big proponent of the “Rare Earth” theory and even though I’m not of the same opinion I have nothing but the deepest respect for his fantastic intellect and dedication to online education!! Thank you so much for continuously bringing us an all star lineup of guests on Event Horizon John!! 💫🙏
Seriously though, I understand that the possible permutations given the number of stars and the possible number of planets in our galaxy is staggering, but if you really dig into the science of our environment you discover that there is a very specific set of variables that allow us to have liquid water oceans, oxygen rich atmosphere, favorable pressure and temperatures. Just slightly more or less mass, temperature, pressure, different composition, etc and we aren't here. Even If you allow for life to develop in less hospital conditions we likely wouldn't have fire, or be able to develop technology or be able to escape our gravity/atmosphere to launch satellites or space vehicles. We would be limited to a low tech civilization, trapped here by our gravity and or environment. Life in the galaxy could be abundant, but Earth like planets and technological, space faring civilizations could indeed be very rare.
@@avenuePadSo you’re saying he’s outright lying to everyone. He knows the rare earth hypothesis is bunk, but he lies to everyone that it’s not. What’s his motivation for lying? Or maybe some people want a thing to be true, despite all evidence to the contrary?
Dr Kipping is getting a lot of attention these days, he has just been on both the Chris Williamson and Jordan Peterson podcasts. And now he is topping it off with JMG!
Exactly. We havent even scratched the surface and we're trying to make blanket assumptions about life in the universe. The Rare Earth Hypothesis barely rises above religous doctrine.
It's called technosignatures, and we're not looking for life on mars, it's dead. We are looking for signs of life forming there billions of years ago when mars would have had oceans.
@@avenuePad you need to understand the complexity of life, and the literal millions of things that have to go just right for any complex life to form at all. This isn't star wars.
I think this is argument "from expansion". Life always expand to fill all available nieches, and we always expanded. So it is fairly likely that another civilization driven by curiosity, such as ours, would expand and they wouldn't need much time to colonize the whole of almost whole galaxy, which we would be able to detect.
13:58 that's a GIANT assumption. If a civilization existed 5 million years ago, how would you know? Between volcanism, weather, flooding, tectonic activity in general, what would even be left?
A world where living cells never diversify in a common body you would have no higher life forms. And our mitochondria are essentially an invasive lifeform. That had never happened we would probably get nowhere.
Human civilization will be lucky to make it intact out of this century. Life is fragile. Intelligent life even more so. And civilizations? They hang by a thread. While technology has advanced by leaps and bounds here on planet Earth, ethical, spiritual and intellectual advances have been few but far between. How many civilizations like ours have self-destructed in the remote past? We may never know.
Yes, we do not yet have the knowhow to construct a self-sustaining spaceship (lifeboat) able to support breeding & protect its occupants from cosmic hazards - and yet our usage of the only known safe habitat for our species & supporting biology is in serious overshoot, whilst numerous existential threats abound.
I have to think this is it. We are the first. Our conditions are ludicrously favorable to life. How many planets in the habitable zone have a huge gas giant shielding it from debris; and an enormous satellite that both absorbs impacts AND gives the planet a magnetic force field against radiation?
Or it could be the fact we exist means others must, as the entire universe has the same chemistry that made life possible here. Further, we have no idea that our conditions here are the only set of such that makes life happen. For all we know, life has an easier path in some other worlds. Bottom line is we can't know anything unless we continue researching and looking.
Even if our planet is 1 in 10,000 for ideal conditions in a solar system, life would still be incredibly common. It's possible, but I think it's unlikely. What if stars are too far away from us to detect life yet, I mean we only knew the earth orbits the sun a few hundred years ago. Maybe the light just hasn't reached us yet that shows evidence of life. If a solar system is hundreds of thousands of light years away, we could be thousands of years behind other civilizations and not even detect them for thousands of more years. The fact life exists at all, seems like it would be more likely to be lots of places, than we just won a lottery in an empty universe.
What a treat to get a Cool Worlds upload (go watch it!) AND another great Dr. Kipping feature here within hours of each other! I really REALLY love how often he's coming back to Event Horizon, you two have a great synergy and it's always interesting!
of all those whistleblowers he's honestly the least trustworthy, only heard stuff by word of mouth and immediately claimed they're interdimensional beings? sure buddy now take your pills
Who is he, what did he claim, and what is the proof? They last whistle blower claimed, among other things, it was a top secret program, while in reality he obtained permission from Pentagon to speak about it publicly! This is how top secret it was...
I don't think statistical arguments are very persuasive, when we have a sample size of one. There is no 'great' silence, just an aparent silence as we A: don't know exactly what we are looking for and B:have not been looking for long or at large numbers. In Dr Kipping's beaker examole it would be like checking one of his beakers for half a second and declaring that no disolving had occured. Therefore none of the beakers are likely to have had any disolving of the chrmicals.
I like to think of Humanity as an elder species, enslaving the populations of lesser worlds to toil endlessly, dragging giant slabs of stone to build a great monument to our dark glory. Then, after hundreds of years, when the monument is finished, we will get back in our spaceship, without saying anything, and go on to the next planet.
In a universe that will support life for at least dozens of trillions of years (maybe longer), and couldn't support life for the first several billion, it's safe to say we are EXTREMELY early to the game. It is feasible we could be the first in this galaxy, and one of the first in the entire universe.
@@avenuePadWhat are the figures you base your opinion on? I did some napkin calculations and discovered that if you set the probability of intelligent life emerging just a couple orders of magnitude lower, then we being the only ones in the local galaxy cluster is entirely likely, and the only ones in the observed universe within a realm of possibility.
That's a nice little neatly arranged division that is utterly at odds with everything we know about life, it is haphazard ad hoc, sometimes exploding when circumstances are favourable and being annihilated when not.
@@avenuePad Absurd, Debatable, Hot Take, Preposterous... I myself prefer to go with an honest answer like, I don't know... & the best bit is, neither do you.
Forget Red Dwarf suns. The planets are tidally locked to their stars and the reason scientists are finding planets around Red Dwarf stars is because it is easier to find a planet passing a low light level star.
And because 'goldilocks' planets close to their relatively cool stars may transit every few days? Much easier to find than one like ours that transits just once a year.
It's a fascinating subject and one I've long agreed with David on. It seems to me that intelligent life is very very rare, but that once it develops it spreads quite easily. I find it very difficult to envisage a filter that could totally prevent our growth at this point. So the most likely of the unlikely answers? We're the first.
I hate how much Dr Kipping makes sense... I'm really in that camp that wants to believe that we will find evidence for other intelligent life in our universe in our lifetime. So every time he says otherwise he kind of ruins my party.
Seriously - I don't rule out a galactic empire, so to speak. We don't have the data to do that. All we've done is effectively take weak core samples of planets somewhat near us. We can't yet see all the planets around most of the stars we've considered. We've mostly just looked at transits. When you consider that any civilization even slightly more advanced than us wouldn't be blasting radio comms like we do, combined with our utter (current) inability to detect a civilization, combined with the possibility that most life could be on moons rather than planets... we cannot say we are not indeed surrounded by a galactic "community". Note: I highly doubt there could even be a galaxy-wide empire. But a galaxy practically full of civilizations? That actually is possible. We could be in the middle of a community that is just becoming aware that we're here (due to light emissions showing changes in our atmosphere due to our technological development). Before then, aliens could detect there was life for a very long time. So if I had to guess, given we are inside that community, we've been the equivalent of a natural forest or zoo that aliens have no reason to visit except for maybe a rare science expedition. But when they detect a smart entity is here, then their interest may well be piqued. Bottom line is they will know we're here before we find any of them. And we're now detectible out to 100-150 light years.
There is not ONE piece of evidence of ANY life beyond Earth, let alone intelligent life. Talk of galactic civilizations is science FICTION. Scientists should not be in the business of wishful thinking. That's mainly what I hear any time these two "scientists" get together. To hear them talk about "being optimistic" is ridiculous. That's not science, it's religion.
At best we may become like the ancient Egyptians or Mesopotamians in being one of the first technological civilizations in the galaxy (we are more analogous to cavemen right now...until we spread to a few other solar systems). We are still in the very long minimal flat line phase of intelligent galactic populations, as human population on earth were from 300,000 BC until the industrial revolution. Give it another 13 billion years and then maybe the population of intelligent galactic civilizations will start to climb exponentially, as it did with humans on earth after the industrial revolution. The galaxy will eventually be full of civilizations, but we won't be around to experience it.....hopefully some evidence of our existence will remain for future alien archeologists to find and puzzle over.
Time is probably a big factor as well. It took time for heavy elements to be formed in the universe which is necessary for life and in the 12 billion years of the universe it took around 4.6 for us to evolve on this one specific planet. Just based on that it seems we are semi early overall.
Just became a bit sad that there's nothing to watch from CoolWorlds after watching their latest video and then I saw this! I haven't even started the video but I like it already!
Still have to watch the clip...but I don't think we are nearly the first. However, the unique circumstances of Earth which allowed for huge biodiversity and a gravity well that makes it barely possible for a civilization to develop space technology may be so unusual that we may be the first to stand a chance of spreading beyond our home planet. Fishbowl hypothesis...most intelligent species don't have the opportunity that we do. Intelligent does not mean space technology.
Finished the clip. I haven't changed my mind. My ideas were not so radical but have a different emphasis. The S curve can be used for every milestone of life, not just space technologies and spreading beyond a home planet. So in my mind the analysis must go far deeper to be convincing.
Can't agree more David, leave the feelings out of it. It's science. Facts or no facts. Once we have facts, then we can deal with our feelings regarding them.
I find Kipping's argument very anti-copernicus. This kind of thinking doesn't resonate with me at all. I think It's a step backwards. Love how some people on this thread thinks he makes 'exceedingly good cakes'. It's Kipping, not Kipling! lol
A good summary of the present situation although needlessly convoluted at the beginning. In clearer terms, the idea is that having a value close to 50/50 chance that alien civilizations exist could happen only in an artificially fine tuned universe which is not the case, so the probability is either low of high. Given that, from observation so far, no alien civ were detected then it is the low probability part of the S curve.
Is life scarce, or is intelligent life just unlikely to happen simultaneously in a galaxy? Maybe our solar system is in a black hole, so we will never be able to see alien life because their light won't get to us. Maybe looking at our solar system from a galaxy away, aliens are watching our solar system get torn apart, but time dilation makes it seem like everything is normal here, our only clue is that our universe is expanding for some unknown reason by some unknown force.
I think it's incredibly arrogant and human centric to think we are the first intelligence in the universe, just because we don't see Dyson spheres everywhere we look
Dyson Spheres are HIGHLY theoretical. Not to be a contrarian, but I don’t even think they exist, or are possible. You’d have to dismantle your entire star system, and even then your star is eventually gonna expand and go supernova. It’s just insanely impractical, not feasible. They’re fun for sci-fi though!
@@WarlockHolmes420 That would imply that there are multiple intelligent species on our planet and that we are only the most intelligent life that we know of right now. We aren't alone on the intelligence ladder, we're just the most capable in a very specific measure. That specific measure being the use of tools and abstract thinking.
The fact that we can change our environment makes us intelligent. Measuring sticks have nothing to do with it. Animals can't do it, we can. Therefore we are more intelligent. We are capable of passing on experience and memories to our offsprings either by language or in writing Animals can't do it, we can. Therefore we are more intelligent.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think we'll eventually find out that life, and even intelligent life, is relatively common. With earth as an example, we have several species right now that would be considered "intelligent" (cetaceans, corvids, primates, cephalopods), but in the entire 3.9 billion years of known life on earth, only one species has developed technology. I think that's the first filter. And I don't think technological species stick around too long. I think life will generally tend towards "intelligence itself is a useful tool in survival," and most animals will see that as enough: if they breed and eat and survive, they can pass their genes on and they're successful. The amount of resources it takes to create actual tools and technology is a whole different level of weirdness that I think would be exceedingly rare - not unique, given the numbers involved, but I think it's far more likely we find a galaxy full of chimp analogs rather than human analogs, if you read me. One of the pressures that might have caused us to go that route is the competition from other hominids creating a literal arms race
43:08: "The greatest threat to Humanity, is Humanity." I think is really why there could be countless intelligent species that spring to life out there. But ultimately Politics comes into play, whether if you're talking about a small tribe, a tiny village, a large city, a large country or an entire planet.
![Everything NASA Discovered with JWST's Year 2. Closest to Farthest [4K]](/img/1.gif)
I truly appreciate people in the RUclips community who also participate in the real scientific community and publish papers and get time on JWST etc. David is a real hero in the science community. Pushing science forward and explaining it in laymens terms for the rest of us and producing top quality content for us all to consume. Great work having him on the program so many times. Best of the best.
Science? Detail just 1 viable hypothesis produced by heliocentrism... make my day
@@sensualgoat3718all of them
I see 'David Kipping', I click. My favorite guest.
@@Splucked me too
@@mortytvvv Same here! Cool Worlds and Event Horizons are both my favorite channels on RUclips! Having them together is Stellar! (pun intended)
100 percent this.
Two of the most soothing voices on RUclips
2 Kipping podcasts dropped on the same day 😅
JMG and Dr. Kipping?! Our lucky day.
Great, now I have something interesting to watch tonight. Kipping is one of the best guests on this podcast, along with Stephen Webb!
First time listening. That was one of the most interesting conversations I’ve heard in a while. Thank you I am now hooked on your channel.
Happy you found us. You have years of shows to watch. Let us know what you like!
Y'all're The Avengers of internet space-thinkers. This was a delightful meeting of minds - please do it again!
Assemble!
JMG w/ David Kipping, an instant recipe for a great and insightful podcast!
We agree!
The host was born to be a narrator, his voice is really uncannily good
@@wheredowegofromhere79 prior to the invasion by the hoards of mind numbingly dumb illiterate savages there was a rather large region in the middle of England where everybody had this specific vocabulary. Some, as I, call it Oxfordian,
others quite derogatory call it posh English
and others will simply stare at you with a stupid look on their face.
That's unfortunately 75 percent of England and about 97 percent of the US.
@@wheredowegofromhere79 Hard disagree. He's got a valley girl accent and zero tenor.
@@helloidharbl6753 Envy much?
@@helloidharbl6753 I can't unhear it now
Lol can't both be true@@helloidharbl6753
David Kipping. This will be a good one.
David Kipping is one of my favorite guests! Great interview! I personally would love an AI Octopus. Thanks for the episode.
There’s an octopus garden that was recently found around San Francisco. Just like the Beatles sang 🎤 🎶, maybe part of y’ ( Y’s club) beatlejuice is otw and a 2nd movie 🎥 coming. I just look from a weird view’ a true frootloop 🌈3 days til Christmas 🤶🎄🎅 🌈💯🗽🔥❄️. Because of the WONDERFUL THINGS SHE DOES! I follow GOD, LOVE. And definitely 💯 Peace on EARTH 🌏 AMEN 🙏 (11:26amen)🆙🙌🏖️🎁
Much needed relaxation for tonight. Thanks for what you do, and easing this restless mind!
Glad it helps, Greyson.
We have not been listening long enough to come to any conclusions.
_'Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the universe or we are not, both are equally terrifying.'_
Arthur C Clarke.
@@SirAntoniousBlock one of my absolute favorite quotes
@@trippyliquids Indeed, and Clarkes three laws.
1. _When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong._
2. _The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible._
3. _Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic._
I've tried to live by that second one. 😉
@@SirAntoniousBlock right on thanks for that 😎
@@trippyliquids They're from his book _Profiles of the Future_ a short but cracking read. 👍
@@SirAntoniousBlock Good fiction and describing reality are typically not compatible.
E.g. Most distinguished but elderly scientists are stating that it's impossible for there to be no other life in the Universe besides Earth.
Clarke's first law would say they're wrong.
This is one of these nights where everything just goes right.
it's crazy how far the cool worlds channel has come. I remember when david first came on and even made a whole presentation about subbing that i just had to
He’s doing great work. It’s been great to see.
he's a sub? huh. guess you never can tell
Kipling!!! The two best voices in cosmology ❤❤❤❤
Never mind the amazing content!
His name is Kipping.
Kipping*
Yes !!
@@faizanrana2998 hahaha. My poor ability to spell strikes again! ❤️
Always nice to have David back in the show!
Dr. Kipping please come on more! Never enough!
Dr. David Kipping...? Always a must watch 😊
Dr Kipping is one of my favorite.
I rarely if ever hear about what importance access to fossil fuels had on our evolution to a technological society. What if it was common to have a species get to where we were 500 years ago but they didn’t have hundreds of millions of years worth of stored hydrocarbons to accelerate their growth? Is it even possible? If everything was the same in our history but there was no coal or oil where would we be now?
We would be in apsolutly better position then now.
Just my uneducated observation.
I completely agree with you. Makes sense. But I do wonder if a civilization would just immediately resort to wind and hyrdo power and later solar. That would have a definite impact on how their society evolves. Who knows what that would look like.
This is quite an interesting question! I've NEVER heard anyone speak on the topic. Maybe it'd just add like another 100,000 years to getting to an equivalent of where we are now? Maybe it'd force humanities hand to harness much greener energy sources without even knowing the bullet they'd avoided.
For sure there would be more back breaking, hard work in the field, just to sustain yourself and your family. Renewables are great, but there would be no cars for a while.
@@blakeb9964 could we even invent solar or wind to produce electricity given that it requires mining metals and creating composite materials/ circuit boards etc which would be rather challenging without motorised mining equipment. Can metal be smelted in large volumes using only wood or charcoal?
Very cool interview thanks John salute from Ontario
I feel my consciousness expand infinitely when I listen to conversations like these.
We have just found out there is a 13 billion year movie running at the local cinema, have rushed to the cinema bought the popcorn and without time to clean the smudges from our glasses, walked in to the cinema and are now trying to find a seat in the darkness of the cinema, all all while only one frame of the movie has been shown.
Don't expect to find ET anytime soon.
Am 😊 with this expectation.
Agreed but they found us 😊
Beautifully worded like an old Infocom interactive fiction game. Bravo, lizard! ♥
or maybe weve walked into the sequel of an infinite trilogy
💯
There's probably a prequel knocking about somewhere.........
Glad to find another destination on David Kipping’s Podcast Tour
This is gonna be a good one. Really like Prof kipping and the work he and cool worlds do.
Oh i cant wait to watch this tonight!!
Yes!!! Love Dr Kipping!
Omg!!
YESSSS!
When two of your FAVORITES collaborate!!❤
I'm a big fan of you both so it would be awesome if you, Mr. Godier, would be a guest on Mr. Kipling's Cool Worlds podcast too!
This🎉
You always hit a home run when David Kipping is a guest
Was just listening to Dr Kipping talking with Jordan Peterson on the Daily Wire. He is masterful at discussing his research and other topics slightly differently for different audiences without the elitist attitude and talking down to people that comes with some other physicists and cosmology scientists. A class act.
So even Dr.Kippling went over to the dark side now.
@@spiritualanarchist8162 Yeah, imagine actually talking with people you don't agree with on every single topic. You realise that is very cultish behaviour, don't you?
I could actually ask what exactly is 'dark' about Peterson or the Daily Wire but I doubt that much sense would come my way if I did. Feel free to demonstrate otherwise.
@@spindoctor6385
Maybe you shouldn't project so much on so little. And, no , Not listing to Jordan Peterson is not 'cultisch' It's a waste of time.
@@spiritualanarchist8162 So asking a question is projection now, good take champ. I never accused you of anything. The cultish behaviour is refusing to discuss ideas that you don't agree with and demonizing the people who have them instead. I did not know that you were an adherent of that kind of behaviour or if you were just being sarcastic. But now I do.
It is telling that you can't find anything specific to criticise Peterson with, he is just on the 'dark side'
Don't worry, most people in a cult do not realise they are in one and they die blissfully ignorant
@@spindoctor6385I agree. I dislike Peterson but I also find it valuable to listen to views different from my own, when people can articulate them. I'm not sure what happened to "liberals" over the last 20 years, they've become as censorious as Christians during the 80s Satanic Panic.
Awesome, been waiting for Dr. Kipping coming to your show, thanks JMG!
Great episode as always
30 Kilometers/second is 67,108 MPH and he calls that slow! I love Dr. Kipping!
Oh, David Kipping, my good night lullaby is here! 🙂
Love David Kipping. The work he does and how he communicates through his channel is excellent. And I love his approach to statistics
Always interesting with Dr Kipping
What a thought provoking conversation. It was so fascinating to hear that it kept me up at night before going to bed ! Thank you 🙏🏽
So, Dr Kipping's main point here, if I understand him correctly: Either the Universe typically makes intelligent life on any reasonably suitable planets, or it very rarely does. Very interesting. I'm reminded of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, which says that systems will get more and more disordered over time. The reason for the increasing disorder is that there is just one state of perfect order, but there are enormous numbers of different states of disorder. Perhaps we can see the emergence of intelligent life in the same vein. Perhaps there is one long path of very many steps required to create intelligent life, and there are huge numbers of ways to screw up one of more of these necessary steps. If so, it follows naturally that extremely few planets will be able to create intelligent life.
Fantastic video! The conversation about Bayesian statistics and the future likelihood of civilizations appearing is extremely interesting. Dr. Kipping's insights make the complex topic accessible and engaging for all viewers.🥰
Having watched Dr. Kipping's video on this, importantly he doesn't rule out intelligent ET. The analysis doesn't rule out other civilizations, just that the parameter space for them seems to be extremely low, maybe even zero. We just don't know how low it is, thus he does mention in the paper there is likely more potential to find ET if we start looking outside the milky way as the numbers get much bigger. I hope I'm making sense distilling this.
If there is no life in our galaxy besides us, we will never communicate with an alien intelligence. Looking beyond our galaxy the best case scenario is seeing evidence of a type 3 civilization remaking it's galaxy.....hundreds of millions of years ago.
Always a good episode when Dr. Kipping is on
Personally I am of the opinion that are understanding of science is sufficiently incomplete that we don’t know how to listen in on the “great intragalactic party line”.
You get the best guests John!
Love Dr. Kipping!! I know his is a big proponent of the “Rare Earth” theory and even though I’m not of the same opinion I have nothing but the deepest respect for his fantastic intellect and dedication to online education!! Thank you so much for continuously bringing us an all star lineup of guests on Event Horizon John!! 💫🙏
@@js70371 I find how he pushes the Rare Earth Hypothesis to be infuriating. I guess it's because I know he smart enough to know it's bunk.
@@avenuePad Earth is rare though.
Rare Earth is 100% the correct opinion 😃
Seriously though, I understand that the possible permutations given the number of stars and the possible number of planets in our galaxy is staggering, but if you really dig into the science of our environment you discover that there is a very specific set of variables that allow us to have liquid water oceans, oxygen rich atmosphere, favorable pressure and temperatures.
Just slightly more or less mass, temperature, pressure, different composition, etc and we aren't here. Even If you allow for life to develop in less hospital conditions we likely wouldn't have fire, or be able to develop technology or be able to escape our gravity/atmosphere to launch satellites or space vehicles. We would be limited to a low tech civilization, trapped here by our gravity and or environment.
Life in the galaxy could be abundant, but Earth like planets and technological, space faring civilizations could indeed be very rare.
@@avenuePadSo you’re saying he’s outright lying to everyone. He knows the rare earth hypothesis is bunk, but he lies to everyone that it’s not. What’s his motivation for lying?
Or maybe some people want a thing to be true, despite all evidence to the contrary?
Always love when Dr Kipping is on, was listening to the most recent episode of his podcast yesterday!
Dr Kipping is getting a lot of attention these days, he has just been on both the Chris Williamson and Jordan Peterson podcasts.
And now he is topping it off with JMG!
One more great episode! Thank you!
So we cannot even verify if there is life on Mars or not but we already know that there is no intelligent life form in our entire galaxy ?!?
Exactly. We havent even scratched the surface and we're trying to make blanket assumptions about life in the universe. The Rare Earth Hypothesis barely rises above religous doctrine.
We don’t know. This is a statistical argument.
It's called technosignatures, and we're not looking for life on mars, it's dead. We are looking for signs of life forming there billions of years ago when mars would have had oceans.
@@avenuePad you need to understand the complexity of life, and the literal millions of things that have to go just right for any complex life to form at all. This isn't star wars.
I think this is argument "from expansion". Life always expand to fill all available nieches, and we always expanded. So it is fairly likely that another civilization driven by curiosity, such as ours, would expand and they wouldn't need much time to colonize the whole of almost whole galaxy, which we would be able to detect.
This is an always rewarding pairing of space exploration/ Fermi Paradox experts that are also entertaining and a pleasure to listen to.
13:58 that's a GIANT assumption. If a civilization existed 5 million years ago, how would you know? Between volcanism, weather, flooding, tectonic activity in general, what would even be left?
Wonderful to see David again!!
The universe is teeming with simple life. We are simple life
A world where living cells never diversify in a common body you would have no higher life forms. And our mitochondria are essentially an invasive lifeform. That had never happened we would probably get nowhere.
@@michaelpettersson4919just trying to make a pun lol you are correct imo. Ciao
Dr Kipping and Dr Kopparapu are always my favorite guests!
Ah yes… this is the Ying Yang we need…
Great episode, and exactly the right length for more journey to work, and the drive back home.
Human civilization will be lucky to make it intact out of this century. Life is fragile. Intelligent life even more so. And civilizations? They hang by a thread. While technology has advanced by leaps and bounds here on planet Earth, ethical, spiritual and intellectual advances have been few but far between. How many civilizations like ours have self-destructed in the remote past? We may never know.
Yes, we do not yet have the knowhow to construct a self-sustaining spaceship (lifeboat) able to support breeding & protect its occupants from cosmic hazards - and yet our usage of the only known safe habitat for our species & supporting biology is in serious overshoot, whilst numerous existential threats abound.
I absolutely love this Chanel and his other Chanel.
You got Kipping?!? Ok let me arrange my snacks and beers and sit down for this one. SO EXCITED ok I like you too John
Snacks !
holy shit JMG and Kipping. amazing duo
I have to think this is it. We are the first. Our conditions are ludicrously favorable to life. How many planets in the habitable zone have a huge gas giant shielding it from debris; and an enormous satellite that both absorbs impacts AND gives the planet a magnetic force field against radiation?
Or it could be the fact we exist means others must, as the entire universe has the same chemistry that made life possible here. Further, we have no idea that our conditions here are the only set of such that makes life happen. For all we know, life has an easier path in some other worlds. Bottom line is we can't know anything unless we continue researching and looking.
Even if our planet is 1 in 10,000 for ideal conditions in a solar system, life would still be incredibly common. It's possible, but I think it's unlikely. What if stars are too far away from us to detect life yet, I mean we only knew the earth orbits the sun a few hundred years ago. Maybe the light just hasn't reached us yet that shows evidence of life. If a solar system is hundreds of thousands of light years away, we could be thousands of years behind other civilizations and not even detect them for thousands of more years. The fact life exists at all, seems like it would be more likely to be lots of places, than we just won a lottery in an empty universe.
Cool worlds and event horizon at the same time! Always love it
This theroy is probably more horrifying than the dark forest, because it means the fate of all life ever is up to us...
Very scary 😱
What a treat to get a Cool Worlds upload (go watch it!) AND another great Dr. Kipping feature here within hours of each other! I really REALLY love how often he's coming back to Event Horizon, you two have a great synergy and it's always interesting!
How can such a question be asked after David Grusch came forward?
The IGIC confirmed his claims.
of all those whistleblowers he's honestly the least trustworthy, only heard stuff by word of mouth and immediately claimed they're interdimensional beings? sure buddy now take your pills
@@AmonTheWitch if you really think that, I respectfully suggest you look again.
Proof was given.
@@AmonTheWitchhe has firsthand knowledge. It is being reviewed by DOPSR. It is not just “hearsay” 🙄
@@dherosoen I'm sure some of the stuff he says is correct but the rest is delulu
Who is he, what did he claim, and what is the proof? They last whistle blower claimed, among other things, it was a top secret program, while in reality he obtained permission from Pentagon to speak about it publicly! This is how top secret it was...
Dr. Kipping! His story of the first race to achieve sentience stays with me. 💫
I don't think statistical arguments are very persuasive, when we have a sample size of one. There is no 'great' silence, just an aparent silence as we A: don't know exactly what we are looking for and B:have not been looking for long or at large numbers. In Dr Kipping's beaker examole it would be like checking one of his beakers for half a second and declaring that no disolving had occured. Therefore none of the beakers are likely to have had any disolving of the chrmicals.
Rite John n David, great talk... Why are we here because we're here roll the bones roll the bones! TFS, GB :)
I like to think of Humanity as an elder species, enslaving the populations of lesser worlds to toil endlessly, dragging giant slabs of stone to build a great monument to our dark glory. Then, after hundreds of years, when the monument is finished, we will get back in our spaceship, without saying anything, and go on to the next planet.
😂. GO HUMANS!
Hope not.Humans are the worst species in all multiverses.
First phrase our people learn in human speech, "EARTHMAN GO HOME !"
@@sunstardrummerthere’s good and bad news stories everyday. Try and read the good. Blessings and Love to you 🙏
Absolutely love this show and all the subjects.
In a universe that will support life for at least dozens of trillions of years (maybe longer), and couldn't support life for the first several billion, it's safe to say we are EXTREMELY early to the game. It is feasible we could be the first in this galaxy, and one of the first in the entire universe.
That's statistically absurd. Alone in the galaxy is debatable, but still a hot take. Alone in the universe is preposterous.
That would make us the great old ones . Or we will become the precursors.
@@avenuePadWhat are the figures you base your opinion on? I did some napkin calculations and discovered that if you set the probability of intelligent life emerging just a couple orders of magnitude lower, then we being the only ones in the local galaxy cluster is entirely likely, and the only ones in the observed universe within a realm of possibility.
That's a nice little neatly arranged division that is utterly at odds with everything we know about life, it is haphazard ad hoc, sometimes exploding when circumstances are favourable and being annihilated when not.
@@avenuePad Absurd, Debatable, Hot Take, Preposterous... I myself prefer to go with an honest answer like, I don't know... & the best bit is, neither do you.
oh what a treat today
Forget Red Dwarf suns. The planets are tidally locked to their stars and the reason scientists are finding planets around Red Dwarf stars is because it is easier to find a planet passing a low light level star.
And because 'goldilocks' planets close to their relatively cool stars may transit every few days? Much easier to find than one like ours that transits just once a year.
Two of my favourites in one video!
Can you make an Interview with Kevin Knuth on this topic?
We will reach out to him.
@@EventHorizonShow Awesome!
@@EventHorizonShow I would absolutely love that!
It's a fascinating subject and one I've long agreed with David on. It seems to me that intelligent life is very very rare, but that once it develops it spreads quite easily. I find it very difficult to envisage a filter that could totally prevent our growth at this point.
So the most likely of the unlikely answers? We're the first.
I hate how much Dr Kipping makes sense...
I'm really in that camp that wants to believe that we will find evidence for other intelligent life in our universe in our lifetime.
So every time he says otherwise he kind of ruins my party.
UAPs are aliens. Don’t be sad.
He has also said that he hopes that he is wrong.
@@shantiescovedo4361 He is wrong. UAPs are aliens ;)
God damn, the intellectual horsepower on display here is mesmerizing. Gripped from start to finish, fantastic vid!
A thing of beauty: my two favorite science people talking about my favorite thing in the world... SCIENCE
Ha, I just finished the new Cool Worlds episode! A great day for space content!
Seriously - I don't rule out a galactic empire, so to speak. We don't have the data to do that. All we've done is effectively take weak core samples of planets somewhat near us. We can't yet see all the planets around most of the stars we've considered. We've mostly just looked at transits. When you consider that any civilization even slightly more advanced than us wouldn't be blasting radio comms like we do, combined with our utter (current) inability to detect a civilization, combined with the possibility that most life could be on moons rather than planets... we cannot say we are not indeed surrounded by a galactic "community".
Note: I highly doubt there could even be a galaxy-wide empire. But a galaxy practically full of civilizations? That actually is possible. We could be in the middle of a community that is just becoming aware that we're here (due to light emissions showing changes in our atmosphere due to our technological development). Before then, aliens could detect there was life for a very long time. So if I had to guess, given we are inside that community, we've been the equivalent of a natural forest or zoo that aliens have no reason to visit except for maybe a rare science expedition. But when they detect a smart entity is here, then their interest may well be piqued. Bottom line is they will know we're here before we find any of them. And we're now detectible out to 100-150 light years.
There is not ONE piece of evidence of ANY life beyond Earth, let alone intelligent life. Talk of galactic civilizations is science FICTION. Scientists should not be in the business of wishful thinking. That's mainly what I hear any time these two "scientists" get together. To hear them talk about "being optimistic" is ridiculous. That's not science, it's religion.
At best we may become like the ancient Egyptians or Mesopotamians in being one of the first technological civilizations in the galaxy (we are more analogous to cavemen right now...until we spread to a few other solar systems). We are still in the very long minimal flat line phase of intelligent galactic populations, as human population on earth were from 300,000 BC until the industrial revolution. Give it another 13 billion years and then maybe the population of intelligent galactic civilizations will start to climb exponentially, as it did with humans on earth after the industrial revolution. The galaxy will eventually be full of civilizations, but we won't be around to experience it.....hopefully some evidence of our existence will remain for future alien archeologists to find and puzzle over.
Time is probably a big factor as well. It took time for heavy elements to be formed in the universe which is necessary for life and in the 12 billion years of the universe it took around 4.6 for us to evolve on this one specific planet. Just based on that it seems we are semi early overall.
We are not even the first intelligent life on this planet.
True, but we are, as far as we know, the first technological civilization here.
@@StefenTower idk about that, it’s a rabbit hole
Just became a bit sad that there's nothing to watch from CoolWorlds after watching their latest video and then I saw this! I haven't even started the video but I like it already!
Still have to watch the clip...but I don't think we are nearly the first. However, the unique circumstances of Earth which allowed for huge biodiversity and a gravity well that makes it barely possible for a civilization to develop space technology may be so unusual that we may be the first to stand a chance of spreading beyond our home planet. Fishbowl hypothesis...most intelligent species don't have the opportunity that we do. Intelligent does not mean space technology.
Finished the clip. I haven't changed my mind. My ideas were not so radical but have a different emphasis. The S curve can be used for every milestone of life, not just space technologies and spreading beyond a home planet. So in my mind the analysis must go far deeper to be convincing.
Can't agree more David, leave the feelings out of it. It's science. Facts or no facts. Once we have facts, then we can deal with our feelings regarding them.
But are we Intelligent??????
At least some humans
We are violent in ways animals are not. That's unsettling. Is there an intelligence species that's non violent, doesn't kill?
I think the standard is at least as intelligent as our moderately evolved ape species that are fresh from the trees, in evolutionary terms.
This makes a lot of sense! Kipping has changed my view on this issue
"Intelligent"
This channel is the Art Bell show for adults..super 👏👏
I find Kipping's argument very anti-copernicus. This kind of thinking doesn't resonate with me at all. I think It's a step backwards.
Love how some people on this thread thinks he makes 'exceedingly good cakes'. It's Kipping, not Kipling! lol
A good summary of the present situation although needlessly convoluted at the beginning. In clearer terms, the idea is that having a value close to 50/50 chance that alien civilizations exist could happen only in an artificially fine tuned universe which is not the case, so the probability is either low of high. Given that, from observation so far, no alien civ were detected then it is the low probability part of the S curve.
Is life scarce, or is intelligent life just unlikely to happen simultaneously in a galaxy? Maybe our solar system is in a black hole, so we will never be able to see alien life because their light won't get to us. Maybe looking at our solar system from a galaxy away, aliens are watching our solar system get torn apart, but time dilation makes it seem like everything is normal here, our only clue is that our universe is expanding for some unknown reason by some unknown force.
I think it's incredibly arrogant and human centric to think we are the first intelligence in the universe, just because we don't see Dyson spheres everywhere we look
@@macfine until observational evidence gives us 1 example of non human advanced intelligence we must assume we are first. (Or unique)
it is arrogant, but i think it is more dumb than it is arrogant
@@willy-mp5bm unique.not first.
Dyson Spheres are HIGHLY theoretical. Not to be a contrarian, but I don’t even think they exist, or are possible. You’d have to dismantle your entire star system, and even then your star is eventually gonna expand and go supernova. It’s just insanely impractical, not feasible. They’re fun for sci-fi though!
Almost like the person who posted this didn’t listen to the entire episode. Dr Kipping addressed this exact language “arrogant” 😂
Man this is awesome, two of my favorite astronomy RUclipsrs, Saludos desde Panama
Who is saying we are intelligent life? We have 1 measuring stick and it's us. Not very good.
We can measure it next to every other animal we know of.
@@WarlockHolmes420 That would imply that there are multiple intelligent species on our planet and that we are only the most intelligent life that we know of right now. We aren't alone on the intelligence ladder, we're just the most capable in a very specific measure. That specific measure being the use of tools and abstract thinking.
Intelligente until proven dumb
The fact that we can change our environment makes us intelligent. Measuring sticks have nothing to do with it. Animals can't do it, we can. Therefore we are more intelligent.
We are capable of passing on experience and memories to our offsprings either by language or in writing
Animals can't do it, we can. Therefore we are more intelligent.
You’re annoying. We define ourselves as intelligent. There’s no life as intelligent as we are.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think we'll eventually find out that life, and even intelligent life, is relatively common. With earth as an example, we have several species right now that would be considered "intelligent" (cetaceans, corvids, primates, cephalopods), but in the entire 3.9 billion years of known life on earth, only one species has developed technology. I think that's the first filter. And I don't think technological species stick around too long.
I think life will generally tend towards "intelligence itself is a useful tool in survival," and most animals will see that as enough: if they breed and eat and survive, they can pass their genes on and they're successful. The amount of resources it takes to create actual tools and technology is a whole different level of weirdness that I think would be exceedingly rare - not unique, given the numbers involved, but I think it's far more likely we find a galaxy full of chimp analogs rather than human analogs, if you read me. One of the pressures that might have caused us to go that route is the competition from other hominids creating a literal arms race
All I saw was the title and I instantly knew who the guest was. One of my all time favorites.
Also.. Dr. CoolWorlds is the hero we need!
43:08: "The greatest threat to Humanity, is Humanity." I think is really why there could be countless intelligent species that spring to life out there. But ultimately Politics comes into play, whether if you're talking about a small tribe, a tiny village, a large city, a large country or an entire planet.