IKEA furniture is very interesting. All the particles in the boards should statistically make the furniture more durable, yet that shit breaks so easy. Interesting.
@@jackietreehorn8643 the issue is the durability of the binder in composite materials, if they used a stronger binding agent it wouldn’t break as much. The reason they don’t do that is one it would raise the price for at least half a decade until the economies of scale catch up and two less breaking furniture means less sales for them.
I mean hey, that's how the world works right now. If an uneducated Twitter mob with no knowledge of the situation decides you're guilty, then you may as well be.
Kramnik gets the statistics completely wrong. If Hikaru went out and said "I'm gonna play 50 times against 2500s and win 48", it would probably never happen. But thats not what he did. He played 50000+ games, and in that sample set there are streaks of 48 wins or whatever. its a completely different scenario. If you flipped a coin 50000 times, you would get strange long streaks. and in Hikarus case, because nearly everyone he plays is lower rated or equal to him, its like having a biased coin, which would make much longer streaks.
Not "never" but if Hilaru made that claim that tens of thousands of times (after each and every game) it would eventually happen. Even a one in a million coin will flip heads with probability 1% after 10000 tosses. 5% with 50000.
@@nafaidni also a coinflip is always 50% with a fair coin, so if you flip 47 heads in a row , there is still a 50% chance of heads the next flip. The improbability comes from multiplying all the 50%'s together But with Hikaru , the "coin" might be something like 54% win and 46%( loss + draw) against many of these players , so in 50k flops (or games) you get freak streaks
And also, it is rather pointless IMO to pretend calculating the objectively true probability of these streaks is possible. Kramnik's rambling about time controls and taking into account the rating difference between the players makes it sound as if there is a way to know exactly, but there really is not. And these factors are not likely to be any more important than numerous other "hidden factors" such as how well did Hikaru sleep during this or that period, how happy was he in his private life and relationships, how was his nutrition and exercise, and maybe the weather... so it is simply silly beyond belief to demand any attempt to account for such factors, because it would only create a pretend accuracy that does not exist. Instead, one has to use some interval and say for example Hikaru is on average between 90% and 93% likely to win an average online game, calculate the upper and lower bounds of different confidence intervals assuming these upper and lower probabilities, and end up with either high confidence but a very wide range of "probable outcomes" or use a low confidence in order to get a narrower expectation... There's a reason the DNA testing services operate as they do. 23andme tells people they are 14.7% Polish and that sort of thing, but only in the small print can you find out that they used 50% confidence, so each thing they told you is at least 50% likely according to their (surely imperfect) model! But unlike other services they did at least disclose this, if hidden away a bit, and even let users choose to see what the analysis looked like with higher confidence. Just a pity that for most users, going up to 90% confidence leads to just a single claim saying "you're mainly from this continent", which sounds a bit less impressive than being 14.7% Polish, and still in fact must be expected to be wrong one in ten times!
@@AndersHaalandverby The "improbability" part is technically a misunderstanding of statistics. The likelihood of flipping a fair coin heads 47 times *in a row* is equal to any other *sequence* of 47 flips. All outcomes of 47 flips are equally unlikely. 47 total heads is unlikely relative to the *total* number of heads you would expect (23.5), but the sequence (multiplying all the 50%s together) is only as unlikely as any other sequence. Consider, for example, the odds of flipping heads and tails, alternating every other on each flip. That sequence is equally as probable as 47 consecutive heads. However, it has a more reasonable total number of heads, and shares that total with many more sequences, whereas there is only a single way to flip 47 heads out of 47.
@@joustmaster_69probability is still valid. Soccer is another skill based game. What is the probability of Real Madrid scoring 100 goals in the next game? How about exactly 1 goal?
@@BishopStars I've been trying to understand how Kramnik does math. It looks like he conveniently switches out data range and what they are predicting. If Hikaru starts a streak right now, the chance of it coming to 40 is pretty low. But since he plays so many games it should eventually happen. Yet when he compares it to his football scores it's like Real Madrid would score 3 goals in the next game, instead of in one of many games, and it's also against a very good team, instead of teams on a lower level (like the opponents in Hikarus streaks). It all just comes off as disingenuous, and the name-calling and attacks left and right is only making it look worse.
Kramnik’s Real Madrid analogy proves he lost the plot and doesn’t understand. It’s not “like looking at real Madrid’s games for the season including practice games against second tier teams”. It’s like “looking at how they played vs every team in the league regardless of whether this team was good or not” whereas kramnik is saying “we should only look at the games they played vs Barcelona and teams with the same standing as Barcelona”
Its more fundamentally flawed than even that. Estimating the probability of a future event occurring ie. The odds that you flip 10 heads in a row starting now is completely different to calculating the probability that you flipped 10 heads in a row in the same circumstances after. Saying they're the same is blatant sampling bias.
@@lewis4402 If the condition is met, the dice rolls are random and independent of each other, so it doesn't matter if you previously rolled 6 in a row 10 times in a row. It will just take longer before you can measure if you start measuring after this series.
In other words, the probability that the same combination of numbers will fall in the next draw as in the previous draw is the same as any other specific number. If by chance the number will actually be repeated 2 times, so that it happens even if it is crossed out again, it is the same as if another concrete number falls.
Me a couple weeks or so ago: "Okay yeah, cheating in Chess is something that still doesn't get talked about enough. I can see where Kramnik is coming from, even if some of the stuff he's saying is a little off..." Me now: "Kramnik is an idiot."
@@shausableI'm dead😂. I've never seen someone use that as a reference in this context, but it fits perfectly. Imma add it do my internal idioms/sayings. Full Glass Onion, figure of speech: Starting off seemingly intelligent or reasonable, but eventually revealed to be sheer idiocy.
Kramnik claims he wants a discussion but it’s clear he doesn’t. He wants them to confirm his predisposed conclusion and will dismiss anything that says otherwise. Tinfoil hat behavior.
@@aluminiumknight4038 his "opinion" that he articulates as undisputable fact. Except its neither undisputable nor is it factual. He's an old man yelling at the clouds.
What's probably the most frustrating part about this is that Kramnik is ultimately talking about important issues for Chess, so much so that I want to be on his side, it's just that he's doing it in the most volatile and abrasive way possible.
Kramnik decided to play a statistician and came to wrong conclusions due to being incompetent at statistics. Then, when publicly corrected by people who actually know what they were talking about (hint: statisticians), Kramnik decided to double down. That's just what arrogance does to people: those who are good at one thing (like playing chess) assume they somehow know any better when it comes to an unrelated area. Nope. Doesn't work like that.
Kramnik: "No one is above the law! Everyone should be investigated and treated equally!!!" Also Kramnik: "HOW DARE YOU DISRESPECT THE FORMER WORLD CHAMPION?!?!" The fact that that is how he refers to himself is just hilarious 😅
Invite a statistician and let him and Kramnik talk on the channel. That would be some content and also might make for an actually interesting discussion
It is hard to reply to a spray of different accusations on the fly. The accusations may be 100% accurate but it is far, far, easier to make them and then possibly shift ground to different accusations if some accusations are refuted.
My take is that hes basically like the conspiracy theorists where they misunderstand some feature of the world and then rather than accepting they were wrong they continue to double down until they feel there is nothing they can do
@@duhfish6030like most conspiracy theorists, he is full of shit. My favorite thing they do is try to take a lack of a clear answer as proof that theyre right despite having the same amount (read:0) evidence as before
16:40 the problem with what Kramnik is saying about the children vs Hikaru is.... Hikaru doesn't use prep against them. If Hikaru was playing all out, rather than just trying to get a game, he probably wouldn't lose. He's also doing it while streaming, he wins a lot of his games, but he still isn't 100% focused because he has to talk/read chat.
@@helo98736Hah he has played some rapid games recently, not blitz, so if you are following Kramniks accusation you are not even doing it properly. Hikaru had the best classical performance in 2023 btw.
Mathematician: "The probability of winning the Power Ball is 1 in 292 million." When someone wins the Power Ball.... Kramnik: "This is cheating and this must be addressed seriously. Also, these Mathematicians does not know how probabilities are calculated. My way is the only correct way"
Personal opinion - dont bring him for an interview. You will just give him a platform to push his own points and he doesn't deserve it. If he is not open to listening, I am not open to listen to him
Levy, I've been following your updates on this issue and previously had an open mind. I'm not a math professor, far from it, but I did study some statistics at Uni Cambridge and it seems to me that Kramnik is lacking understanding of fundamental statistics. Most people (and sometimes even Uni researchers) gets statistics wrong, it's really hard, and Kramnik has fallen to this. Don't invite him on your podcast, I'm sure he will just spread more misinformation.
I think he should but as a sort of debate or discussion between Kramnik and a mathematician/statistician especially if they did and analysis on the possibility of the streaks. That way he can hide behind nuh-uhs.
Lazivek is clearly a prodigy. His games at the recent GCT Finals was proof as to how good he is. It’s obvious that this younger gen raised on online chess and engines are able to play the game way differently than someone from Kramnik’s era
Lazavik is extremely talented. Prodigys are higher then 2560 standard at the age of 17. Most of them are 2700 or higher at that point. Prodigys are players like Abhimanyu Mishra
@@YouGotTheFluechess growth isnt linear if you'd know chess you'd know that there are several players that broke through later in their career like mvl, rapport or nepo
@@95octavianHowever, there is just so much information available online that this kid (who is still so early in his mental development) would not face the same stumbling blocks as the older generations. He can use official recorded games both online and over the board, chess engines (which get better basically every year), or he could just play online until he learns what he needs to (he can quite comfortably play 100 blitz games a day which takes only a bit more than 8 hours or 50 games for rapid). The new generation of prodigies are going to be insane, and you might say theyre too robotic, but this is what peak performance looks like
Speaking as an actuary who works with probability and statistics regularly, this is a complete misunderstanding by Kramnik of how to think about basic probability, which is actually very common when you haven’t been formally taught probability concepts (Monty Hall problem, anyone?) What’s alarming is how confident he is in being right despite professionals telling him point-blank that he is wrong
Seems like a problem of this decade, people forgoing experts analysis because they just don’t agree. You could tell people that the fire over there will burn them but they won’t believe you until their hand has felt the flames…
Thank you. As for Kramnik, he claims to have a mathematical cheat detection system. As someone who once tried and failed to find equations to describe chess, I'd LOVE to see this system. In reality he has no system. He's simply recording results and opining on them. Is there cheating in chess? Well the problem is that we have no way to actually know. Looks like it. But that's the real issue. There is no reliable way to detect much.
To be fair, even professional mathematicians of the time got the Monty Hall problem wrong, probably because they lacked the formalism of probability that Kolmogorov had introduced just a few decades earlier.
no shade to levy i think he handled it well, but i mean he had no choice about being transparent about it; kramnik publicly stated that he asked levy to be on his channel.
That's why I appreciate Levy. At the end of the day, despite whatever clickbaity title he posts, he thinks about the value of the content and provides well thought-out information.
lets be honest here he wants to invite Kramnik for more contents, more contents means more money, he got nothing to lose, a mere IM chasing that money, which i respect
I'm not a statistics specialist, but I think Kramnik lacks fundamental understanding of some principals of statistics. The way he tries to isolate a part of the sample and look at games as independent events is a big no-no. Statistics is hard, especially with such big numbers and he should really know better. He's just gonna lose respect over this.
Why don't you interview / talk to an ex cheater (not Hans) to get their perspective about cheating on online chess (why they stopped, how it impacted them, how long they got away with it and what they did to remain undetected etc.) - this may actually provide new insights that could help the online cheating situation!
Kramnik is just giving "old man yells at cloud" energy now. If he has articulable concerns about the methodologies used to detect cheaters, that's one thing. Baselessly accusing random players is entirely different and should not be tolerated.
And some people learn the lesson and won't repeat it, but most people only think their mistake was getting caught and that's what the only thing they try to change for next time.
The key word in the regulations is ‘recklessly’. Magnus raised doubts about an opponent in a game he himself played, where others considered Neiman’s behaviour odd. Proved to be unsupported, but hardly reckless. What Krammik is doing, throwing out accusations about players he knows nothing about based on his faulty understanding of statistics is definitely reckless.
Reckless or not. In both cases it’s unfair to hand out punishment before doing proper research. In the former case, because it’s Magnus, they punished Hans before deep diving which honestly confirmed the suspicion to most people. Accordingly, Hikaru should’ve been punished first and labeled as a cheater as well.
@@dinjoe828 Kramnik is keeping his conspiracy theory to one thing. Alex Jones throws a bunch of conspiracies about a bunch of different things. So I think turning into is more appropriate for now
It would be fun to present kramnik with some early results of bobby fisher, manus carlsen or kasparov in a anonymous manner and see if he deems it suspicious.
If you do invite Kramnik, please consider inviting a PhD Statistician to join so that they can explain to your audience and him the error in Vlad’s thinking.
FIDE could ban him from FIDE-affiliated chess tournaments, which is most of the ones that regularly get IMs, FM, and/or GMs. That'd end his career entirely, assuming chesscom bans him as well (I'd expect they would if he got banned by FIDE).
I don't doubt that online cheating is a major issue, especially in tournaments, but I'm not convinced Kramnik's pointing fingers at the right people, because he doesn't seem to know how to determine when somebody's cheating.
I don’t know how they could possibly kick Kramnik out given what happened with magnus and hans. I feel like magnus’ accusation was just as unhinged as Kramnik’s.
This whole scandal can be summed up easily like this; Former world champion, wanting to stay relevant is letting the fact that he is a GM get to his head bc he’s an arrogant “know it all” and thinks he’s right and everyone else is wrong. No matter how much you prove he is wrong with stats, math, etc he will always act like a victim who is right. Bc simply he’s a “chess master” and he knows everything more than statisticians, mathematicians, etc etc. He is trying so hard to be “a good guy just fighting cheating” but instead he is accusing people blindly and then not accepting the fact he is wrong.
No doubt we'll see a lot of very young "chess genuses" in the future ( which already has started) due to the fact we are dealing with children bottled up with computers and they handle computers just as easy as we did with our toys years ago (I'm 64) and it took me a couple of years to handle all the computer programs in Windows office whereas my granddaughter 3 years of age handles a computer like she had it with her in the womb. I think Big Vlad overlooks the fact that the young generation of chess players consume chess knowledge with a speed that we old players don't always fathom. To me the main issue is that the "Integrity" of the beautiful game of chess is on the line to be destroyed. Cheers!
That's the thing, it seems like Kramnik is viewing the rise of young players through the lens of when he grew up and can't comprehend the shear amount of information available to everyone because of the internet and the fact that young kids are like sponges and can learn a lot quicker than an adult.
@@fbch32that is true, plus the ability of engine analysis of a game just played is a new tool that creates much more rapid feedback about what moves were weak.
Information... AND, of course, the fact that one can play 80-100x the number of games. Hikaru, playing bullet, probabl plays more games in a month than Kramnik did in a decade. It's a whole new world.
I mean, it seems this whole thing boils down to: chess players used to share one single social skill passed between them, but now Levy has hoarded it for his RUclips channel.
Because this isn't about punishing cheaters - putting it all together, Kramnik seems to believe that he should still be on top of the chess world, and this is about getting himself back up there. He might think he's got a chance of getting Hikaru kicked out of the game because he's predominantly an online player, but there's precisely zero chance of doing the same against Magnus because his performances are a matter of FIDE-backed real-world data.
@@digiscream That line of thinking doesn't make sense to me. He retired several years ago. Tearing down Hikaru, even if successful, wouldn't do anything for him personally.
@@PumperKrickel - really? There's money involved, and he's still there in the chess world. Even if anyone forgot, even casual online players know his name now.
Not Kramnik: I heard this interesting thing the other day that made me reconsider my absolute stance and approach, and motivated me to engage in open discussions to hear people out, and got me hungry to learn more.
I find it funny that he said he was "silenced" but when people tried to converse with him, to discuss what was right, who, which, when and how, he never listens. And then he continued "voicing" his opinions by making accusations of cheating left and right, against Hikaru, against other young top tier chess players.. As a former chess champion, this is truly an embarassing and unprofessional act done by someone who hold that title. A GM saying a statistician is incorrect is like my stupid 800 elo chess thinking first move A4 as white is a solid starting move and actually unbeatable.
@PenguinLord10 I was gonna say that makes no sense but then I remembered the guy who called out dream at first was literally cheating for world records lol
Speedrunning is way different than chess. You can see clues on thr footage of the speedrun where some tricks can not be replicated however chess is just movibg pieces you cant prove cheating because to prove that you need to disprove the probability of a human thinking of it and thats hard if the person doesnt just admit it
While cheating is bad I think the analysis is missing the scariest part. Not the cheating itself but the fact that vague, spurious accusations of cheating gain so much traction in the first place. Kraminik's accusations against Hikaru allude to evidence that he still to this day has not posted. His accusations against the Turkish kid merely amount to pointing out he's good at online chess. Cheating is a serious issue for chess, but these types of vagueposted accusations and innuendos aren't just a guess or hypothetical, they've done real tangible damage to the sport and continue to. That makes them just as bad, maybe worse.
It seems kramnik's fundamental misunderstanding is that this "extremely low probability" applies to selecting a random 46 consecutive games... When you cherry-pick the games, it's no longer random And that is on top of all the other problems with using rating to calculate probability, when he even acknowledges the flaws in rating itself (shared across multiple time controls). And of course Hikaru is hand-picking opponents, because he knows their rating is above their actual strength in 3+0 Anyway it's sad that kramnik refuses to learn, but I guess you can't teach an old dog new tricks...let alone math
One of the things that hurts me the most is the higher the status the lower the punishment, which means that you just need to cheat long enough and not get caught to gain that privilege? Why aren't Kramnik and Magnus being severely punished for their false allegations? Because loke what happened with Niemann, those false allegations can take a heavy toll on the mental health and earnings potential, which are akin to the consequences of libel defamation and slander.
Gotta love Kramnik's approach, just name every FM/IM/GM in the game and hope that some of them cheat. In his mind that proves his theory that everyone is cheating.
Honestly, I don't care if a 12 year old is cheating or not. For an adult to openly threaten and accuse a 12 year old on the internet is just pathetic on a whole new level.
As someone with beyond high school level knowledge and even semi-professional experience with statistics, listening to any of Kramnik's "stats" cause me physical pain. It's like listening to flat-earthers trying to use "PHYSICS" to justify their "theories". The existence of such stupidity, but more importantly, such confident stupidity, really makes me question everything in life.
Merry chrismas, levy, you really help me through the year you made me laugh and smile while bad times were happening. Thank you for everything. The chess community loves you. ❤️
Kramnik is arguing against the methodoligies without providing any results from his own flawed methodoligies. He's angry at the results and seems to assume that everyone is cheating. That's not rational detection. That's baseless accusation.
The fact that Hikaru has statistical anomalies in his games should be an expected norm rather than something to be concerned about - this is the de facto best or second best speed chess player online, and the man has played thousands of games spanning decades; the sample size alone would show up anomalous streaks, let alone the relative strength of his opposition in an online setting.
Kamnik's math is incorrect, he forgets about the essential "look-elsewhere" effect: if you extract the worst possible streak of games out of all games ever played, you will find something improbable for sure. But if you compute the probability of such a success streak happening, it is not improbable at all. This is extremely well-known by statisticians and particle physicists, there are well-known ways to correct the computation of probabilities to take that into account. Second problem: due to "farming", successes are very correlated (one opponent is played multiple times). For the sake of argument, let's assume 100% correlation for the games against the same player (meaning that when Hikaru wins one game, he is certain to win all the other games against that same player, which is a rather reasonable hypothesis for the sake of this argument). This means that the success streak can actually be broken down into sub-streaks, with each sub-streak actually being equivalent to one single game. This immediatly makes the success streak a lot more probable! Anyways, all that just to say that computing these probabilities is not easy at all. And while a basic education is enough to suspect the existence of a problem, I believe that it is not enough to claim that there is a problem for sure. These computations are seriously hard to perform, even if you are very knowledgeble in statistics. Meaning that we are looking at subtle effects: yes, catching someone who cheats only one or two moves in just a few rare games is hard; maybe not impossible, but hard for sure.
Cheating is rampant in every other online game. Why should chess be any different? Maybe soon all the top level games will just be Stockfish vs. Stockfish, and we can move on with our lives.
The part towards the end about cheaters not cheating just once is much more true than people realize. Human behavior is so faulty and predictable that cheaters can't maintain a straight story forever. There are many examples of these on the Karl Jobst channel. He covers a lot of different cheaters across different video game genres and the story is surprisingly consistent across all of the cheaters. I don't believe the hype. Cheaters can't hide from the algorithm. They think they might but unless some GM or group of them can somehow trick the anticheat and prove it, it's not possible.
This. If it can be tricked, then prove it. Show yourself playing thousands of games cheating and getting a really, really high ELO and beating Hikaru etc. with it without being banned. Prove you can beat the system.
The number of people at the 1000 level who will literally tell you that they're a much high rank, and just on a different account, is really annoying. The other day I was having a great match and then the guy drops in the chat "my friend is going to help me win" (or something like that) People really just don't understand what cheating is.
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
So, Levy Rozman won't invite Kramnik, which doesn't surprise me.
We thought you had balls Levy, like Batman, but only Chessbrah has.
Shame of shin!
One of the Shin of pame of all time
Like Batman XD
!?!?!? Shame pin Of
pin of balls?..
You should invite Kramnik on and then just ask him about IKEA furniture.
IKEA furniture is very interesting. All the particles in the boards should statistically make the furniture more durable, yet that shit breaks so easy. Interesting.
Lmfao
@@jackietreehorn8643 the issue is the durability of the binder in composite materials, if they used a stronger binding agent it wouldn’t break as much. The reason they don’t do that is one it would raise the price for at least half a decade until the economies of scale catch up and two less breaking furniture means less sales for them.
Guess the elo with Kramnik and ikea furniture = most viewed video of all time
Lol so he can accuse them of cheating too
I get investigating cheaters, but it really seems like Kramnik is taking the “guilty until proven innocent” approach.
And this approach is totally ok in sports, see any doping scandal
No, he's just using faulty logic to prove his point, which discredits his generally valid arguments re cheating as a whole.
No, it's "still guilty even proven innocent"
No, he's taking the "guilty even when proven innocent" route, which is even worse.
I mean hey, that's how the world works right now. If an uneducated Twitter mob with no knowledge of the situation decides you're guilty, then you may as well be.
It's nice that Magnus allows you to branch out from time to time
lol
xd
I mean, Levy has been sneaking behind his back with Hans for a while now.
lmao
Please stop using gendered language at the beginning of your videos..."Ladies and Gentlemen" It's offensive. Thank you
Kramnik gets the statistics completely wrong. If Hikaru went out and said "I'm gonna play 50 times against 2500s and win 48", it would probably never happen. But thats not what he did. He played 50000+ games, and in that sample set there are streaks of 48 wins or whatever. its a completely different scenario. If you flipped a coin 50000 times, you would get strange long streaks. and in Hikarus case, because nearly everyone he plays is lower rated or equal to him, its like having a biased coin, which would make much longer streaks.
Not "never" but if Hilaru made that claim that tens of thousands of times (after each and every game) it would eventually happen. Even a one in a million coin will flip heads with probability 1% after 10000 tosses. 5% with 50000.
@@nafaidni also a coinflip is always 50% with a fair coin, so if you flip 47 heads in a row , there is still a 50% chance of heads the next flip.
The improbability comes from multiplying all the 50%'s together
But with Hikaru , the "coin" might be something like 54% win and 46%( loss + draw) against many of these players , so in 50k flops (or games) you get freak streaks
i.e. the improbability is related to prediction and to what extent we are predicting. @@AndersHaalandverby
And also, it is rather pointless IMO to pretend calculating the objectively true probability of these streaks is possible. Kramnik's rambling about time controls and taking into account the rating difference between the players makes it sound as if there is a way to know exactly, but there really is not. And these factors are not likely to be any more important than numerous other "hidden factors" such as how well did Hikaru sleep during this or that period, how happy was he in his private life and relationships, how was his nutrition and exercise, and maybe the weather... so it is simply silly beyond belief to demand any attempt to account for such factors, because it would only create a pretend accuracy that does not exist. Instead, one has to use some interval and say for example Hikaru is on average between 90% and 93% likely to win an average online game, calculate the upper and lower bounds of different confidence intervals assuming these upper and lower probabilities, and end up with either high confidence but a very wide range of "probable outcomes" or use a low confidence in order to get a narrower expectation...
There's a reason the DNA testing services operate as they do. 23andme tells people they are 14.7% Polish and that sort of thing, but only in the small print can you find out that they used 50% confidence, so each thing they told you is at least 50% likely according to their (surely imperfect) model! But unlike other services they did at least disclose this, if hidden away a bit, and even let users choose to see what the analysis looked like with higher confidence. Just a pity that for most users, going up to 90% confidence leads to just a single claim saying "you're mainly from this continent", which sounds a bit less impressive than being 14.7% Polish, and still in fact must be expected to be wrong one in ten times!
@@AndersHaalandverby The "improbability" part is technically a misunderstanding of statistics. The likelihood of flipping a fair coin heads 47 times *in a row* is equal to any other *sequence* of 47 flips. All outcomes of 47 flips are equally unlikely. 47 total heads is unlikely relative to the *total* number of heads you would expect (23.5), but the sequence (multiplying all the 50%s together) is only as unlikely as any other sequence.
Consider, for example, the odds of flipping heads and tails, alternating every other on each flip. That sequence is equally as probable as 47 consecutive heads. However, it has a more reasonable total number of heads, and shares that total with many more sequences, whereas there is only a single way to flip 47 heads out of 47.
Kramnik arguing with mathematicians about their statistics being wrong is like me arguing with Kramnik that my 1200 elo chess is better than his 😂
Your elo is wrong. It is much higher according to my statistical analysis
And Kramnik doesn’t even provide actual arguments. He just says “nuh uh” and ends it there.
this
@@joustmaster_69probability is still valid. Soccer is another skill based game. What is the probability of Real Madrid scoring 100 goals in the next game? How about exactly 1 goal?
@@BishopStars I've been trying to understand how Kramnik does math. It looks like he conveniently switches out data range and what they are predicting. If Hikaru starts a streak right now, the chance of it coming to 40 is pretty low. But since he plays so many games it should eventually happen. Yet when he compares it to his football scores it's like Real Madrid would score 3 goals in the next game, instead of in one of many games, and it's also against a very good team, instead of teams on a lower level (like the opponents in Hikarus streaks). It all just comes off as disingenuous, and the name-calling and attacks left and right is only making it look worse.
Kramnik’s Real Madrid analogy proves he lost the plot and doesn’t understand. It’s not “like looking at real Madrid’s games for the season including practice games against second tier teams”. It’s like “looking at how they played vs every team in the league regardless of whether this team was good or not” whereas kramnik is saying “we should only look at the games they played vs Barcelona and teams with the same standing as Barcelona”
Its more fundamentally flawed than even that. Estimating the probability of a future event occurring ie. The odds that you flip 10 heads in a row starting now is completely different to calculating the probability that you flipped 10 heads in a row in the same circumstances after. Saying they're the same is blatant sampling bias.
@@lewis4402 If the condition is met, the dice rolls are random and independent of each other, so it doesn't matter if you previously rolled 6 in a row 10 times in a row. It will just take longer before you can measure if you start measuring after this series.
In other words, the probability that the same combination of numbers will fall in the next draw as in the previous draw is the same as any other specific number. If by chance the number will actually be repeated 2 times, so that it happens even if it is crossed out again, it is the same as if another concrete number falls.
This whole saga gives "old man yells at cloud" vibes
It's the related, "old man yells at PC".
XD
The sad thing is, he's not even that old
at this point I think cramlick is projecting and I am starting to think he is so sure there is cheating bc he has been doing it
Kramnik just bought several new Keep off the lawn signs for his front yard,
Me a couple weeks or so ago: "Okay yeah, cheating in Chess is something that still doesn't get talked about enough. I can see where Kramnik is coming from, even if some of the stuff he's saying is a little off..."
Me now: "Kramnik is an idiot."
full glass onion lmao
@@shausableI'm dead😂. I've never seen someone use that as a reference in this context, but it fits perfectly.
Imma add it do my internal idioms/sayings.
Full Glass Onion, figure of speech: Starting off seemingly intelligent or reasonable, but eventually revealed to be sheer idiocy.
@@jacobstevens7046 TIL that's what a Full Glass Onion is...and yes, that perfectly describes Kramnik at this point LMAO
@@jacobstevens7046thanks for explaining. Yeah, glass onion seems to sum this up perfectly
@@jacobstevens7046 what does 'full glass onion' mean?
Kramnik claims he wants a discussion but it’s clear he doesn’t. He wants them to confirm his predisposed conclusion and will dismiss anything that says otherwise. Tinfoil hat behavior.
He just wants a platform to voice his opinions
But some of those opinions can hurtother people. If alot would agree with kramnik he could just ruin lives@aluminiumknight4038
@@aluminiumknight4038 his "opinion" that he articulates as undisputable fact. Except its neither undisputable nor is it factual. He's an old man yelling at the clouds.
@@safersephiroth943least biased hikaru fan
boomer behaviour
What's probably the most frustrating part about this is that Kramnik is ultimately talking about important issues for Chess, so much so that I want to be on his side, it's just that he's doing it in the most volatile and abrasive way possible.
Kramnik decided to play a statistician and came to wrong conclusions due to being incompetent at statistics. Then, when publicly corrected by people who actually know what they were talking about (hint: statisticians), Kramnik decided to double down. That's just what arrogance does to people: those who are good at one thing (like playing chess) assume they somehow know any better when it comes to an unrelated area. Nope. Doesn't work like that.
he is so lost in his world and now because he getting blocked from posting he views it as "silencing" the truth.
What was he wrong about? Can you say anything specific?
@@tillwill3232most things. Let me throw that dumb comment back at you. What was he right about?
Most chess players are more self aware and know that being a chess GM makes you a GM a chess not all life
@@iKSmurf I guess whatever you're not including in the subset you called "most things" which is part of the set "all things" :)
i sometimes forget this channel has nearly 5 million subscribers. the videos still feel just as chill as when you had 100k
Never thought about that, you're absolutely right. He's sat down with Magnus but he's still the same dude talking at us 🫡
Trueeee, Gotham replied to my comment the other day, such a chill dude. Great level-headed channel to watch.
@@palbi yesss
And Kramnik sacrifices... THE INTEGRITY!!!!
😂
uncompetent 🤦♂
Well he certainly moved into an endgame...
😂😂
@@logirexincompetent*
Sort of sad when you're insulting someone's intelligence.
Kramnik: "No one is above the law! Everyone should be investigated and treated equally!!!"
Also Kramnik: "HOW DARE YOU DISRESPECT THE FORMER WORLD CHAMPION?!?!"
The fact that that is how he refers to himself is just hilarious 😅
Kramnik went to your house, criticized your food, accused you of covering up a crime and still thought he would get to sleep in your bedroom lol
Invite a statistician and let him and Kramnik talk on the channel. That would be some content and also might make for an actually interesting discussion
It is hard to reply to a spray of different accusations on the fly. The accusations may be 100% accurate but it is far, far, easier to make them and then possibly shift ground to different accusations if some accusations are refuted.
@@vholes2803yes that's true, but showing that process happening publicly would certainly settle some opinions on kramniks outbursts
Dorian Quelle would be a great guest.
Don't think it would be super interesting cuz it won't take long to refute
It would be exactly what you expect. Lmfao
My take is that hes basically like the conspiracy theorists where they misunderstand some feature of the world and then rather than accepting they were wrong they continue to double down until they feel there is nothing they can do
Yeah, and nearly every conspiracy theorist over the past 5 years has been proven right.
@@littlejames9824 seek help
@@littlejames9824 Which theories specifically
If you're going to be wrong, dont just be embarrassingly wrong.
@@duhfish6030like most conspiracy theorists, he is full of shit. My favorite thing they do is try to take a lack of a clear answer as proof that theyre right despite having the same amount (read:0) evidence as before
16:40 the problem with what Kramnik is saying about the children vs Hikaru is.... Hikaru doesn't use prep against them. If Hikaru was playing all out, rather than just trying to get a game, he probably wouldn't lose. He's also doing it while streaming, he wins a lot of his games, but he still isn't 100% focused because he has to talk/read chat.
I would love to see that kid play against Hikaru OTB(over the board) and see how many he wins. What do you honestly think ?
Is that the reason hikaru got destroyed by everyone in recent otb games he is definitely cheating in his online games 😂
@@helo98736Hah he has played some rapid games recently, not blitz, so if you are following Kramniks accusation you are not even doing it properly. Hikaru had the best classical performance in 2023 btw.
Levy was so excited by the chess drama that he failed to like his own video
bro is begging for that pin
And you were so excited to get the pin that you forgot to like your own comment
@@hamzapatel5617 bros coping
Wwhat
@cygnuscraft9544 It’s because usually levy likes his own videos but this time he didn’t
Mathematician: "The probability of winning the Power Ball is 1 in 292 million."
When someone wins the Power Ball....
Kramnik: "This is cheating and this must be addressed seriously. Also, these Mathematicians does not know how probabilities are calculated. My way is the only correct way"
Lol
Personal opinion - dont bring him for an interview. You will just give him a platform to push his own points and he doesn't deserve it. If he is not open to listening, I am not open to listen to him
I agree for somewhat different reasons but I do agree with you.
Yeah his interview yesterday on chessbrah was 3 hours of time lost to the universe
People who think like you are utterly insufferable.
@@vickmackey24 elaborate
You are alincapable of being a good person
Levy, I've been following your updates on this issue and previously had an open mind. I'm not a math professor, far from it, but I did study some statistics at Uni Cambridge and it seems to me that Kramnik is lacking understanding of fundamental statistics. Most people (and sometimes even Uni researchers) gets statistics wrong, it's really hard, and Kramnik has fallen to this. Don't invite him on your podcast, I'm sure he will just spread more misinformation.
I think he should but as a sort of debate or discussion between Kramnik and a mathematician/statistician especially if they did and analysis on the possibility of the streaks. That way he can hide behind nuh-uhs.
Statistics is _really_ counterintuitive. I took a statistics course as part of my education and Kramnik doesn't know what he's talking to. Sad.
Bro Cambridge is such a good university. U must be pretty smart to just get in
Agree, it’s sad to see Kramnik acting like this and to see Nepo supporting him
ye
Lazivek is clearly a prodigy. His games at the recent GCT Finals was proof as to how good he is. It’s obvious that this younger gen raised on online chess and engines are able to play the game way differently than someone from Kramnik’s era
Lazavik is extremely talented. Prodigys are higher then 2560 standard at the age of 17. Most of them are 2700 or higher at that point.
Prodigys are players like Abhimanyu Mishra
@@YouGotTheFluechess growth isnt linear if you'd know chess you'd know that there are several players that broke through later in their career like mvl, rapport or nepo
@@95octavianHowever, there is just so much information available online that this kid (who is still so early in his mental development) would not face the same stumbling blocks as the older generations. He can use official recorded games both online and over the board, chess engines (which get better basically every year), or he could just play online until he learns what he needs to (he can quite comfortably play 100 blitz games a day which takes only a bit more than 8 hours or 50 games for rapid). The new generation of prodigies are going to be insane, and you might say theyre too robotic, but this is what peak performance looks like
It's amazing to consider how many more games a 15 year old IM in 2023 has played compared to the greats of the past
Speaking as an actuary who works with probability and statistics regularly, this is a complete misunderstanding by Kramnik of how to think about basic probability, which is actually very common when you haven’t been formally taught probability concepts (Monty Hall problem, anyone?) What’s alarming is how confident he is in being right despite professionals telling him point-blank that he is wrong
Seems like a problem of this decade, people forgoing experts analysis because they just don’t agree. You could tell people that the fire over there will burn them but they won’t believe you until their hand has felt the flames…
jonharwood1863
"They probably just cheated to get where they are"
- Him, probably
Thank you. As for Kramnik, he claims to have a mathematical cheat detection system. As someone who once tried and failed to find equations to describe chess, I'd LOVE to see this system.
In reality he has no system. He's simply recording results and opining on them. Is there cheating in chess? Well the problem is that we have no way to actually know. Looks like it. But that's the real issue. There is no reliable way to detect much.
To be fair, even professional mathematicians of the time got the Monty Hall problem wrong, probably because they lacked the formalism of probability that Kolmogorov had introduced just a few decades earlier.
Levy, more power to you, man. You are more of a man than most for being transparent with the potential effect of inviting Kramnik on the channel.
no shade to levy i think he handled it well, but
i mean he had no choice about being transparent about it; kramnik publicly stated that he asked levy to be on his channel.
That's why I appreciate Levy. At the end of the day, despite whatever clickbaity title he posts, he thinks about the value of the content and provides well thought-out information.
lets be honest here he wants to invite Kramnik for more contents, more contents means more money, he got nothing to lose, a mere IM chasing that money, which i respect
@@dafuqmr13 He said that too, in this video, but argued why he decided to not invite him, after all.
I'm not a statistics specialist, but I think Kramnik lacks fundamental understanding of some principals of statistics.
The way he tries to isolate a part of the sample and look at games as independent events is a big no-no.
Statistics is hard, especially with such big numbers and he should really know better.
He's just gonna lose respect over this.
I think he already lost respect he had, that's why he carries on with this.
Kramnik farming cheating allegations against other grandmasters? Very interesting
Why don't you interview / talk to an ex cheater (not Hans) to get their perspective about cheating on online chess (why they stopped, how it impacted them, how long they got away with it and what they did to remain undetected etc.) - this may actually provide new insights that could help the online cheating situation!
Maybe he can interview Hans’ teacher Gm Dlugy he also got caught in cheating scandal.
Terrible idea
Coffeezilla colab!
Would love that, great idea!
Don't want to teach people how to do it though
Kramnik is just giving "old man yells at cloud" energy now. If he has articulable concerns about the methodologies used to detect cheaters, that's one thing. Baselessly accusing random players is entirely different and should not be tolerated.
So then did you defend Hans Niemena or the Armenian team
If not the you are worse than a hypocrit
@@alexlehrersh9951nobody said anything about Hans, what are you on
Many of those who said that Hans or the Armenian Gms were cheaters are no atacking Kramnik.
Its hypocrtisim in its purest form@@chaselauderback3266
@@alexlehrersh9951 Petrosian was banned after an investigation and Niemann confessed to previous cheating. Not exactly baseless, I'd say. Get a grip.
Nope Kramnik investigated those players too.
So stop being a hypocrit@@PumperKrickel
Cheating is like shoplifting. When someone gets caught, it’s rarely the first time they did it. It’s just the first time they got caught.
And some people learn the lesson and won't repeat it, but most people only think their mistake was getting caught and that's what the only thing they try to change for next time.
How do you know people don't get caught their first time?
@@liljackypaper Sometimes I’m sure it is. But in my opinion, that’s the exception.
unlike shoplifting, cheating is bad
Kramnik attempted the Gaslight Gambit.
The key word in the regulations is ‘recklessly’.
Magnus raised doubts about an opponent in a game he himself played, where others considered Neiman’s behaviour odd. Proved to be unsupported, but hardly reckless. What Krammik is doing, throwing out accusations about players he knows nothing about based on his faulty understanding of statistics is definitely reckless.
Reckless or not. In both cases it’s unfair to hand out punishment before doing proper research. In the former case, because it’s Magnus, they punished Hans before deep diving which honestly confirmed the suspicion to most people. Accordingly, Hikaru should’ve been punished first and labeled as a cheater as well.
Kramnik is turning into the Alex Jones of chess.
*has turned
@@dinjoe828 Kramnik is keeping his conspiracy theory to one thing. Alex Jones throws a bunch of conspiracies about a bunch of different things. So I think turning into is more appropriate for now
Except Alex Jones turned out to be right most of the time.
Good mix because Alex Jones is a good fellow and is mostly right
It's the chemicals in the pieces, it's turning the fricking pawns into queens!
Kramnik the type of guy to accuse 30 different people and when even one would turn out to be, he would say "See? I told you, I knew it!"
It would be fun to present kramnik with some early results of bobby fisher, manus carlsen or kasparov in a anonymous manner and see if he deems it suspicious.
Don't you mean Carlus Mansen?
@@vholes2803 lol
Levy: Its binary. You are either cheating or you aren't
Kramnik: So 50% of chess players are cheaters
essentially the level of understanding of probability kramnik has lol
Levy never Fails to include the phrase „complete Pandamonium“ into his videos
@@pimientamolida5083monium
Levy opium
@@pimientamolida5083 panda... panda panda panda oanda
@@kidn00b1🐼🐼🐼🐼🐼
If you do invite Kramnik, please consider inviting a PhD Statistician to join so that they can explain to your audience and him the error in Vlad’s thinking.
Kramnik has thrown his reputation away. That’s more than FIDE could do at this point in his career.
FIDE could ban him from FIDE-affiliated chess tournaments, which is most of the ones that regularly get IMs, FM, and/or GMs. That'd end his career entirely, assuming chesscom bans him as well (I'd expect they would if he got banned by FIDE).
Kramnik has convinced me that most of the perceived cheating problem is actually just salty chess dudes who think they’re smarter than they truly are.
It's a huge element.
He's so confidently wrong it's painful
@@TheBswan no, what's painful is this censorship culture.
@@valeriekeefe8898 Could you elaborate?
I don't doubt that online cheating is a major issue, especially in tournaments, but I'm not convinced Kramnik's pointing fingers at the right people, because he doesn't seem to know how to determine when somebody's cheating.
I don’t know how they could possibly kick Kramnik out given what happened with magnus and hans. I feel like magnus’ accusation was just as unhinged as Kramnik’s.
Smearing the names of actual children without any legitimate proof to back it up is such heinous behavior. Fide needs to take action against Kramnik
"Actual children" lol
Levey never fails to mention chess in his videos.
Levey? 😂
Levey? 😂
Levey? 😂
Levey?🤣🤣
This is true.
This whole scandal can be summed up easily like this;
Former world champion, wanting to stay relevant is letting the fact that he is a GM get to his head bc he’s an arrogant “know it all” and thinks he’s right and everyone else is wrong. No matter how much you prove he is wrong with stats, math, etc he will always act like a victim who is right. Bc simply he’s a “chess master” and he knows everything more than statisticians, mathematicians, etc etc. He is trying so hard to be “a good guy just fighting cheating” but instead he is accusing people blindly and then not accepting the fact he is wrong.
No doubt we'll see a lot of very young "chess genuses" in the future ( which already has started) due to the fact we are dealing with children bottled up with computers and they handle computers just as easy as we did with our toys years ago (I'm 64) and it took me a couple of years to handle all the computer programs in Windows office whereas my granddaughter 3 years of age handles a computer like she had it with her in the womb. I think Big Vlad overlooks the fact that the young generation of chess players consume chess knowledge with a speed that we old players don't always fathom. To me the main issue is that the "Integrity" of the beautiful game of chess is on the line to be destroyed. Cheers!
That's the thing, it seems like Kramnik is viewing the rise of young players through the lens of when he grew up and can't comprehend the shear amount of information available to everyone because of the internet and the fact that young kids are like sponges and can learn a lot quicker than an adult.
@@fbch32that is true, plus the ability of engine analysis of a game just played is a new tool that creates much more rapid feedback about what moves were weak.
@@fbch32 You just nailed it!
Information... AND, of course, the fact that one can play 80-100x the number of games. Hikaru, playing bullet, probabl plays more games in a month than Kramnik did in a decade.
It's a whole new world.
@@jonsalvadori6275 Agree!
I mean, it seems this whole thing boils down to: chess players used to share one single social skill passed between them, but now Levy has hoarded it for his RUclips channel.
levy never fails to chess his drama
what
Mother from another brother
levy never fails to drama his chess
I’m deadass, my phone lagged at the first frame, so I just looked at an extended Gotham stare
It just dawned on me has kramnik ever considered if Magnus was cheating lol, I mean he's on another level
Because this isn't about punishing cheaters - putting it all together, Kramnik seems to believe that he should still be on top of the chess world, and this is about getting himself back up there. He might think he's got a chance of getting Hikaru kicked out of the game because he's predominantly an online player, but there's precisely zero chance of doing the same against Magnus because his performances are a matter of FIDE-backed real-world data.
@@digiscream That line of thinking doesn't make sense to me. He retired several years ago. Tearing down Hikaru, even if successful, wouldn't do anything for him personally.
@@PumperKrickel - really? There's money involved, and he's still there in the chess world. Even if anyone forgot, even casual online players know his name now.
@@digiscream I don't see it, that's all.
Not Kramnik: I heard this interesting thing the other day that made me reconsider my absolute stance and approach, and motivated me to engage in open discussions to hear people out, and got me hungry to learn more.
Holy crap Kramnik is projecting hard on all the other players.
I find it funny that he said he was "silenced" but when people tried to converse with him, to discuss what was right, who, which, when and how, he never listens. And then he continued "voicing" his opinions by making accusations of cheating left and right, against Hikaru, against other young top tier chess players..
As a former chess champion, this is truly an embarassing and unprofessional act done by someone who hold that title.
A GM saying a statistician is incorrect is like my stupid 800 elo chess thinking first move A4 as white is a solid starting move and actually unbeatable.
This entire thing is a masterclass in the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
You can't blame 12 year old , that is insane, imagine how it will effect him. Kramnik is crazy. Imagine the possibility he is wrong.
Kramnik's entire argument seems to hinge on "Cherry picking is good actually."
It looks like someone who cannot handle the fact that he cannot compete at the highest level anymore. He needs to seek medical advice.
Levee never fails to keep the course of rivers from changing and to protect against flooding of the area adjoining the river or coast.
Lol
bruh
Thank you Kramnik for giving Erdogmus some recognition. All I see from this accusation is "Erdogmus is so good that Kramnik thought he was cheating".
Kramnik didn’t buy your courses, so this is what happens
"Even with a basic education..." then immediately goes on to use the word "uncompetent"
I feel like some of the cheating scandals in speedrunning are a good place to look to see the way people start and then keep going with cheating
Kramnik should hire an astrophysicist to prove his accusations. :^)
@PenguinLord10 I was gonna say that makes no sense but then I remembered the guy who called out dream at first was literally cheating for world records lol
Speedrunning is way different than chess. You can see clues on thr footage of the speedrun where some tricks can not be replicated however chess is just movibg pieces you cant prove cheating because to prove that you need to disprove the probability of a human thinking of it and thats hard if the person doesnt just admit it
@@MIDO44444 yeah, but the sorta psychological stuff that levy mentioned is the stuff that has more overlap
While cheating is bad I think the analysis is missing the scariest part. Not the cheating itself but the fact that vague, spurious accusations of cheating gain so much traction in the first place. Kraminik's accusations against Hikaru allude to evidence that he still to this day has not posted. His accusations against the Turkish kid merely amount to pointing out he's good at online chess.
Cheating is a serious issue for chess, but these types of vagueposted accusations and innuendos aren't just a guess or hypothetical, they've done real tangible damage to the sport and continue to. That makes them just as bad, maybe worse.
our bro levi is snorting the drama like good good
Kramnik is snorting something else that's not doing anything good for him... and I wonder where his grandma's ashes went, her urn is empty.
@@CaTastrophy427 yea that bro is tryna stay relevant
Hikaru Nakamura accused Arjun Erigaisi of cheating without any evidence now Hikaru gets accused.
It seems kramnik's fundamental misunderstanding is that this "extremely low probability" applies to selecting a random 46 consecutive games... When you cherry-pick the games, it's no longer random
And that is on top of all the other problems with using rating to calculate probability, when he even acknowledges the flaws in rating itself (shared across multiple time controls). And of course Hikaru is hand-picking opponents, because he knows their rating is above their actual strength in 3+0
Anyway it's sad that kramnik refuses to learn, but I guess you can't teach an old dog new tricks...let alone math
Alireza Ferusia literally does that “farming” in real life and there’s a double standard 😮
Levy never fails to call us "my friends" in his videos.
I doubt Kramnik will be receiving any more invites to any chess events
Seems that kramnik will only accept an evaluation or methodology that agrees with his outcome
Levy never fails to Merry the Christmas 🎄
One of the things that hurts me the most is the higher the status the lower the punishment, which means that you just need to cheat long enough and not get caught to gain that privilege?
Why aren't Kramnik and Magnus being severely punished for their false allegations? Because loke what happened with Niemann, those false allegations can take a heavy toll on the mental health and earnings potential, which are akin to the consequences of libel defamation and slander.
Gotta love Kramnik's approach, just name every FM/IM/GM in the game and hope that some of them cheat.
In his mind that proves his theory that everyone is cheating.
Honestly, I don't care if a 12 year old is cheating or not. For an adult to openly threaten and accuse a 12 year old on the internet is just pathetic on a whole new level.
Magnus was fined not because of baseless accusations but because he did not follow the regular procedure when he dropped out.
I want to confirm something; If a top level player cheats for 1 move per game, is that not impossible to catch?
Muting Kramnik was a good call, imo. Hopefully we can catch cheaters without resorting to public accusations in the future.
As someone with beyond high school level knowledge and even semi-professional experience with statistics, listening to any of Kramnik's "stats" cause me physical pain.
It's like listening to flat-earthers trying to use "PHYSICS" to justify their "theories". The existence of such stupidity, but more importantly, such confident stupidity, really makes me question everything in life.
Sadly the cheating problem in chess is only going to get worse
How do you know?
Kramnik is well on his way to replicating Bobby Fischers approach to chess retirement.
Merry chrismas, levy, you really help me through the year you made me laugh and smile while bad times were happening. Thank you for everything. The chess community loves you. ❤️
I cheat every game. I continue thinking when it is not my move.
You copied that tactic from Stockfish. Oooooh!
Drama: exists
Levy: "its milking time"
He’s informing 🤓
You’re consuming and commenting on it too, great huh?
Kramnik is arguing against the methodoligies without providing any results from his own flawed methodoligies. He's angry at the results and seems to assume that everyone is cheating. That's not rational detection. That's baseless accusation.
The fact that Hikaru has statistical anomalies in his games should be an expected norm rather than something to be concerned about - this is the de facto best or second best speed chess player online, and the man has played thousands of games spanning decades; the sample size alone would show up anomalous streaks, let alone the relative strength of his opposition in an online setting.
Kamnik's math is incorrect, he forgets about the essential "look-elsewhere" effect: if you extract the worst possible streak of games out of all games ever played, you will find something improbable for sure. But if you compute the probability of such a success streak happening, it is not improbable at all. This is extremely well-known by statisticians and particle physicists, there are well-known ways to correct the computation of probabilities to take that into account.
Second problem: due to "farming", successes are very correlated (one opponent is played multiple times). For the sake of argument, let's assume 100% correlation for the games against the same player (meaning that when Hikaru wins one game, he is certain to win all the other games against that same player, which is a rather reasonable hypothesis for the sake of this argument). This means that the success streak can actually be broken down into sub-streaks, with each sub-streak actually being equivalent to one single game. This immediatly makes the success streak a lot more probable!
Anyways, all that just to say that computing these probabilities is not easy at all. And while a basic education is enough to suspect the existence of a problem, I believe that it is not enough to claim that there is a problem for sure. These computations are seriously hard to perform, even if you are very knowledgeble in statistics. Meaning that we are looking at subtle effects: yes, catching someone who cheats only one or two moves in just a few rare games is hard; maybe not impossible, but hard for sure.
Great video Levy. Btw if you had to eat a chess piece, which would it be?
The pawn is the smallest, and probably easiest to get down. With bishop being a close second.
The ROOOOOOK!!!!!! (Cough, cough, choke....)
Cheating is rampant in every other online game. Why should chess be any different?
Maybe soon all the top level games will just be Stockfish vs. Stockfish, and we can move on with our lives.
Hikaru accused a young arjun ergaisi nobody said anything then.
sometimes chess brilliance circumstantially goes hand in hand with insecure narcissism. it sucks but it happens
Love your content Levy.. never stop making chess videos!!
Chess is a game that encourages paranoia. A lot of people who are very good at the game become paranoid off of the chess board too.
BALLS
😂
Basically gist of this is Levy holding himself from saying kramnik has gone loneey toones
The part towards the end about cheaters not cheating just once is much more true than people realize. Human behavior is so faulty and predictable that cheaters can't maintain a straight story forever. There are many examples of these on the Karl Jobst channel. He covers a lot of different cheaters across different video game genres and the story is surprisingly consistent across all of the cheaters.
I don't believe the hype. Cheaters can't hide from the algorithm. They think they might but unless some GM or group of them can somehow trick the anticheat and prove it, it's not possible.
This. If it can be tricked, then prove it. Show yourself playing thousands of games cheating and getting a really, really high ELO and beating Hikaru etc. with it without being banned. Prove you can beat the system.
The number of people at the 1000 level who will literally tell you that they're a much high rank, and just on a different account, is really annoying.
The other day I was having a great match and then the guy drops in the chat "my friend is going to help me win" (or something like that)
People really just don't understand what cheating is.
I agree Gotham, blaming a 12y/o without sufficient evidence is bad.
Vlad knows soooooo much about cheating at chess, it would make sense if he himself is a cheater
Kramnic simply does not understand stats. Which is very common with people who don't do stats.
So exciting that Gotham has 3 topics for his videos already! Magnus, Hans and Kramnik - can't wait for all three to be in vidwo name.
hey, he also talks about AI and Hikaru too!
Ah yes. "vidwo"