Can Rolex beat Patek? At what price do you get most value for money? Can Tudor beat Omega? - Q&A
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 1 авг 2024
- Hi guys,
Q&A time with me answering all your questions. Enjoy!
0:00 - Intro
0:40 - Omega watch auction fraud
5:44 - Watches that make me feel confident, opulent, utilitarian
8:27 - Will JLC and others profit from their price hikes?
13:24 - Value for money. When do diminishing returns kick in?
23:23 - What I do
24:06 - Will Tudor beat Omega?
25:06 - Can Rolex compete with Patek, AP and high horology?
Thanks for the support to everyone that watches my content.
Subscribe if you like so you can get more of my content.
Cheers!
For inquiries and collabs: twtw.mike@gmail.com
Just encountered this channel and instantly subscribed. Some of the most thoughtful watch analysis I have seen on RUclips.
The comments on Rolex vs. holy trinity were spot on. Many Rolex buyers will never be Patek or RM buyers, but nearly anyone who owns a Patek or an RM will also be a Rolex buyer.
Yay! Thanks a ton for the sub - It's truly appreciated 👍👍👍😀
You are more than a 'jack of all trades'.
Exhaustingly detailed, objective no nonsense commentary.
Nice change.
I try at least.... 😀
I am watching (no pun) this video about a year after it was first posted.
I recognize the milestone of 2500 subscribers, but a year later, I'm seeing close to 50000. No small wonder.
Great channel and good topics, presented in a very subjective manner.
Thanks Mike!
The topic of fakes is fascinating especially in antiques. I once collected Japanese swords which there are considered many fakes. Interestingly they're real swords made in Japan by a proper swordsmith in the same traditional method but the signatures chiselled into the tang were forgeries. These fakes were even made in the 18th century. Some swordsmiths that famously produced these fakes were great craftsmen in their own right & now their swords are highly collectible. As you mentioned, when there's money to be made. There's a lot of foul play and the authenticity is questionable. In Japan there was an independent company established to authenticate swords and they issued a document of certification after assessment. However the company was later exposed taking bribes to authenticate forgeries. Consequently all the swords they authenticated over several decades since WW2 are now void, considered useless as the paper they are printed on. Now that Omega's former museum director is implicated in the Speedmaster forgery, I wonder about the certificates he signed and issued as extracts from their archives? I heard Omega has since stopped providing this service
Fascinating! - Where there's money, there's going to be somebody with questionable morals...
As to Omega, it wouldn't surprise me. There's too much risk in doing those validations and certifications. I think it's partly the reason why Rolex doesn't do it.
Thanks for contributing😀😀
Very interesting!
Keep posting - an analysis of value is really welcome.
Thanks. Will do. Upcoming 😉
Definitely my favourite watch guy!
Love the format- please repeat sopner rather than later
Will do. I'm aiming for 5000 and then we'll do another Q&A.... Spread the word 😉😉😉
Always enjoy your episodes and the way you go about explaining things analytically and dissecting certain subjects
Happy to hear that you like my approach 😃
Excellent viewpoint on market positioning at the end.
I have another way to look at it (that corresponds to your ‘value for money’ segment). This has to do with brackets…if I am looking at a $8,000, I am likely open to spending $10,000 or slightly more, if there is a higher perceived value option available (same movement in a precious metal case, for example.)….similarly, someone who has already gotten themselves to where they feel comfortable spending $60,000 on a platinum Rolex, is easily open to spending $120,000 on a Patek…
I watch a lot of unnecessary RUclips (please no offense it’s more a reflection of me lol) your content is far above average from production to your delivery and content it’s all top notch…my first thought when I found the channel was “wow I can’t believe he doesn’t have more subscriber”….come to find out you haven’t even been doing this for a calendar year !?I see this channel gaining subscribers faster than most. Keep it up your gonna have a shit ton of subscribers much sooner than you think.
lol! Thanks a ton. Really glad you enjoy it. I'm having fun and if I grow = Yay! Trying to improve every time and we'll see where it goes.
Thanks for joining the community 😀😀😀
Well done! How refreshing compared to RUclipsrs simplistically ranking watch brands while yelling at the camera. I've really come to enjoy your channel.
Glad you enjoyed! 😀
Great work, very enjoyable and educating.
Many thanks! 😀
I used to want to buy a Rolex for my college graduation but the situation from the last 3 years completely threw me off this brand. I associate it with people that I dont look up to now and Im not interested anymore, specially when there are so mamy amazing other brands.
This has happened to soo many people - They've really succeeded in alienting some people a lot 😀
Still going through the archives. Great perspectives as always. I figured you were in the (non-watch) business realm. Nice example with the clasp.
As far as pricing - I’d love to see Rolex raise prices $2k on all steel sports watch’s 1 Jan - would kneecap flippers immediately.
Great video as per usual. I am so happy your channel is growing, proof that you are doing something we all enjoy.
Thanks a ton. Especially as you are one the very first subscribers. Appreciate you sticking around 😀
Fresh approach to mature questions. Well Done 👌🏻 and congrats on you 2500 subscribers, onwards and upwards! 🥂
Thanks so much! Glad you enjoyed 😀😀
Great, great answers and thank you for taking mine! I had similar numbers in my head: something like $1200-1500 USD for your first step up, and then arguably $4-5000 as my upper range of value At that point you get into entry-points of the "premium" or "entry-level luxury" brands like Omega, Tudor, IWC, Bulgari or something like the nomos club 37, as well as impressive complications from mid-tier brands like FC, Longines or Maurice Lacroix, for instance. It seems like at that point, there's a lot on offer and a lot of opportunity.
Cheers and congratulations on 2.5k!
Thanks!
They were fun questions to answer 👍👍👍
Great discussions here and can’t wait to hear more Q&As like this. Big congrats on your evergrowing following also! 🍻
Thanks so much! 👍😀😀😀
I love your videos, please continue with your insight! Love from Italy
Cheers, thanks 😀
Truly thoughtful and intelligent perspective on the industry. Mike- your background obviously gives you a great advantage when it comes to discussing marketing, strategy, and brand position. Great- Just what I needed- I have a new channel that is going to suck me in and force me to devour all its content. ;)
Thanks for that and for taking the time to share your thoughts. Really appreciated 😀
Have to say I really like the thought you've put into each video and your perspectives on this industry. You have another new sub here !
Welcome aboard! 😊😊
Thanks again for some really thought provoking analysis. I approach this hobby often with my engineering brain engaged, but with a fascination with the business aspects. You tickle the business part to help me understand different perspectives.
Very welcome! 😀
Really appreciate your insight into the VFM / Diminishing returns topic. Many thanks!
Glad it was helpful!👍😀😀
I really enjoyed your perspectives on product and competitive positioning of these watch brands. Great video! Congrats on the growth of your channel.
Much appreciated! 😀😀😀
My don’t care watch is a yellow gold day-date I bought a few years ago. I bought it because I am bored with white metal watches and needed some colour in my small collection, and I am not getting any younger so I thought it’s now or never. I love wearing it because it’s different, and I don’t care.😄
I am a bit late to the party but glad to be here! That JLC of yours is seriously stylish! I completely agree. I no longer wish to have a Rolex because of the stigma attached to it. Its funny... I didn't want one because of the "I have made it factor" but rather because its a well made watch brand and I believed that every watch enthusiast should own one. I have also heard it costs crazy money to service them where as Sellita or ETA costs way less. Those are some exceptional pieces you got there! There are watches out there that we can only ever imagine owning. I cant imagine paying 300k on a watch in Rands nevermind in dollars! 😅 Have a great weekend bud!
You're not wrong. A rolex service will easily cost you a 1000 USD for service. It's bananas....
cheers bru👍👍👍
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch That nuts. I could rather use that money to invest in something else. 😅 Have a great week boet!
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch In the UK - Watch Doctors at Tring charge circa £300 to service a Rolex.
Someone else on RUclips said his experience with A. Lange & Söhne was approx 50% more than a lower cost Rolex service.
I agree Rolex themselves may like to charge significantly more
Congrats 🍾 and love your take on watches!
Glad you like them! Really appreciated that you took the time to comment as well. 😀😀😀
Great video. You always provide thought provoking topics. And congratulations on your growing channel!
Thank you so much 😊
I have five issues with Rolex that I don't have with Patek. The first is that a mass-produced item loses value for me. Second and related, their prices are preposterous given their mass production. Third, I generally don't like their looks. That oculus is hideous, in particular. But I don't think much of the dial colors or textures either. Fourth, I have tool watch and dive watch fatigue. Fifth, I do not want to walk around with a watch that is bought, I feel, only for unjustified prestige. That's why even when I see a used Rolex at a somewhat good price, I do not buy.
Now, I don't have a Patek because it's outside my price range, and I do think the prices are crazy now, but I have a few Grand Seikos, a Seamaster, and several Longines (talk about bang for buck). As I started out with Orient, I have too many of them, but I periodically gift one to a deserving person with some interest in watches, and I can wear them anywhere without fear of them being stolen. Plus, they look surprisingly good with handmade straps.
The impracticality of the Reverso is delightful, made extra impractical in the duo face models, as the motivation for the reversibility--protection of the crystal--is not even relevant. But they sure look cool, and the movements are nice pieces of engineering.
Thanks for this Mike. It's making me look at several things from a different angle. I would fit in with the type who would have bought one JLC, not a recurring customer so it's an explanation for my annoyance at their huge price hikes though I still remain annoyed! JLC are betting the farm that the margin increase will more than make up for the lost sales (which would, in any case, mainly occur in the stainless steel models and lower complication watches, I expect) Where does Grand Seiko come in your different price points? I suspect they just about manage to fit into the level before diminishing returns for the £7k to £9k price points.
GS? I think they're really good value. Especially on grey market but even on AD pricing. They make really well finished products with excellent specs. They are huge value for money as I see it
😀😀
Great video. I always liked the way You look at brands and analyse them. Nie i know where that sharp eye comes from. I think also partly that explains why the channel is growing so fast. Thumbs up!
Thanks!!!! Appreciate you sticking around 😀😀😀
Great video, you make understanding the watch market, marketing, hierarchy and value a simple process. 👌
Cheers
Glad it was helpful! 😀😀
Replicas get better and better everyday. If manufacturers don’t guarantee quality materials being used, which is where “fakes” fault, they are going to feel it. There are plenty of videos online that highlight the difference. The screws on a replica movement are soft as butter, so longevity is the big issue.
The video was fascinating, it explains many things that I was starting to understand . . . thank you so much.
Recently considered buying a watch with the Sellita Caliber SW330-2 basic movement and asked the brand if they would fit the premium movement instead (happy to pay). The movements are interchangeable . . . or my local watch shop could do the same job.
This service is only available if I buy 25 watches.
However if the watch was customised - I would also like to change the hands - so I am starting from the wrong place . . .
An appealing alternative seems to be one watch, with many different watch straps to keep life simple.
To make the watch choice more difficult please add . . . thinner cases (max 11mm) and something similar to baton watch hands.
Thanks. Glad you found it worthwhile. 😀😀
Great video, I have the same reverso you have, and I just changed the strap to a fabric one JLC just released, and it became so sporty, you should try it.
Been wanting to switch the strap on it for a while. Maybe I need to follow your lead 😀😀
Great logic, especially at the end of your presentation.
Good work! 👍
Thanks! 😃
Favorite episode so far, thanks! Could you recommend any literature on business strategies and marketing? There seems to be a lot but it I can't find anything of a real help.
Thanks - Glad you enjoyed it. Sorry - Can't help you out there on specifics. But go to university websites. Many colleges have course curriculums readily available where you can see which books are part of the syllabus 😊😊
I have 2 near vintage GL Evolution Sport GMT pieces. One of my GOs is on a SS bracket with the ratcheting clasp. GO designed the ratcheting type clasp.
Great video!! Your comments are on point 🙌🏻 I agree with you that JLC and other brands are making business decisions (like price increases) to move upmarket.. JLC belongs in an upper echelon and I think they’re going to “claim” their place in the next 5 years
Thanks!!!
They're definitely going to try for sure 😀😀😀
Great format
Stay the course!
Will do my best 😀😀
The best most informative shows I watch 😀
Glad you find my videos worth watching 😀
I like moonphase.
The reason why “buying the gold to get the silver” model works for Patek and won’t for Rolex in the long-term is because of sheer volume. There are way too many grey listings for the steel models for *less* than the gold models at MSRP. The total spend will be much less by just going grey for what you want. The entry point and rarity of Patek means there are no unworn cheap models of any kind on the grey market. Why spend 20k on a sub i don’t want to be offered the sub I do want at 10k when I can just cut all that out and spend 14k for a grey sub and pocket the difference?
Agree on that - Those 1.2 million Rolex watches almost by definition exclude them from any normal definition of exclusivity. Scarcity yes. Exclusivity - not really 😀
I like the format 👍🏽
Happy to hear it 😃
The Cartier Santos comparison brought to mind Casio’s newest Cartier-Tank-inspired offering (really just wanting to share, since you appreciate Casios), larger and different than their previous version - Casio LTP-B165L-5BVEF. It gets its usual share of hate so far, like having 50 WR on it cheapening its appearance apparently and criticism of the second hand’s color, but I think for anyone on a budget it’s hard to pass it up and compares favorably to much more expensive Cartier homage watches
Salute to Perezcope! Certain auction houses are either the stake holders too or they are not competent.
Perezcope knows what he's talking about 😃😃
The best channel on watches.
thank you 😀
There are examples against this rule. Is there anything better than a Nomos Orion Neomatic before you get to JLC?
Who would have thought that art authentication is the same as selling real estate.
Very nice!
Thanks! 👍👍
I think in college they kind of called "Snob appeal" with the alternate "appeal to the common man" being addressed by Plain Folks appeal. It seems to me that when these strategies are being used, the products are not really designed to be clearly set at a fair price. This is one of the reasons I became uninterested in Rolex and settled for Ginault (and to some extent OceanX).
Very nice talk. In relevance to your topics may I suggest you a book (if you have not already read it) - Diffusion of Innovations by E.M.Rogers. My apologies if my suggestion is uncalled for.
spot on
it’s only through man’s vanity that Rolex et al can make money
Thx! 😀
I like your take on the last question. You didn’t speak about quality or product as watch per dollar question is already scrapped out at that price point. You chose to look at exclusivity and attractiveness to the wealthy. The only factor I would include is that to a wealthy man, Rolex might be his G-Shock or Beater and a Patek would be his Dress or occasion watch. To that segment of people, is Rolex even special with 1 million watches produced a year?
To me it's all about how you define "beating" or "better" or as "desirable". All shiny things look the same to same people. To others the level of work that goes into a Patek movement is an objective level of superiority.
and yeah... pretty sure some billionaire tycoon types have white gold subs as beater watches 😀
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch Fair enough!😁
Ummm why wouldn't people go back to person that says it's fake. That's the one you want.
First! Uno! No.1! Gold!
What about value retention? Are you better off buying a Rolex gmt Pepsi today in a bad Rolex environment for 21k which is almost double retail. You probably won’t lose buying that today at that price and will most likely make a few grand when the economy turns around. Or are you better off buying a a sea master for 6.5k and and end up losing 2-3 grand? Probably better off spending double on the Rolex.
Rolex is pretty much the only brand that holds their value over time for many models. For me though... if I'm never sending it anyway, then value retention is irrelevant 😃
@@Mike.thiswatchthatwatch seems unlikely given the current value, but isn't this fallacious in that you expect the future trends to match the past?
But also yeah I think buying a watch for value retention is pretty questionable. I bought the bapex pepsi clone and glad I did, because it told me I don't want a pepsi not at all the watch I like.
Even John Mayer can’t get 7,000 submariners out of his AD!
But if anyone could, it would be him.... 😂😂
One blind spot in this analysis is that you're making the assumption that many or even most watch buyers are watch enthusiasts/collectors. The reality is that the vast majority of luxury watch buyers know little to nothing about watches, but simply have the wealth to buy a piece of bling that they think looks good and/or will impress people in their orbit. The other increasingly large buying group is resellers with no passion for watches other than the financial opportunity for profit that they may represent. "Watch Nerds" actually account for a tiny % of overall sales.
I think for those high end buyers who just have a shirt-ton of money, all the horology mumbo jumbo and heritage talk is irrelevant to them like you say. A frosted gold Royal oak and rainbow daytona that I mention in the video don't speak to collectors in the way a Calatrava or historique might. Money has no taste... 😀😀😀
Hard to say what the % is. I think there are more guys with some knowledge of watches buying Rolex for the ‘I’ve made it’ factor. But no doubt - the posers have rushed into the space. And sadly - short of WWIII or a meteor strike - they probably aren’t leaving.
With all their resources, Rolex could easily beat the holy trinity in haute horology and finishing. If they wanted to. Let's be real, we're talking about 18th and 19th century technology. But I think fine dress watches go against the design philosophy and branding of Rolex. Which is why the 1908 had me scratching my head. Still, I'm sure they know what they're doing.
I agree, at least partially. Technically Rolex is already way ahead of them, but that comes down to the fact that, I think that Rolex have really mastered luxury mass production. They get the absolute maximum out of their production processes - and any sub process where mass production can lead to higher quality, Rolex will be head and shoulders ahead of someone like Patek.
On the other hand: Hand finishing, engraving is not something that lends itself to mass production and although I'm sure Rolex can hire good people, some of the in house knowledge and expertise in those techniques is not something Rolex can easily replicate. Can they get close? Maybe... But it's just a totally different way of making something.
Thanks a ton for chiming in. Really cool perspective.😃
Agree. Rolex making an exhibition caseback Daytona might signal their effort to start down that path. Not like too many Daytonas are taken into the ocean diving. A few get a splash of champagne occasionally. 🤣
lol holy shit Rolex marketed the hell out of your brain. Talk about delusional
An outstanding comparison of Rolex with the holy trinity of watches. You hit the nail on the head! Every collector of high horology pieces DOES own at least one Day Date or Daytona!
One day I will walk into my AD and convert mu net worth into Submariners
Lol 😂
Yay, thank you very much, amazing Q&A - love your analysis and insight as always. Was very much looking forward to the 24th.
Appreciate addressing my Qs, too. Pretty interesting thought that Rolex competes with nobody, but at the same time gives a run for their money to various brands that offer superior watchmaking and / or superior value for money (@omarion07 summarized above perfectly). That's what makes them "the greatest", I guess. Not a fan of Rolex myself at all, but - hey - credit where credit's due; your view makes me appreciate them even more.
Cheers,
T.
You had some really cool questions that I enjoyed answering and had to put some thought into - so thanks for sharing and "putting me on the spot" (in a good way) 😀😀😀