Back Every Horse And Profit Using This Simple Technique
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- Опубликовано: 13 сен 2024
- Dutching extra places is one of the most beloved strategies in matched betting when it comes to targeting the bookmaker's extra place promotion.
Dutching relies on backing all of the horses in a race and making a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome.
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Using OddsMonkey and a spreadsheet we are able to target certain horse races to make a profit by implementing the dutching strategy which sees bookmakers payout on additional places.
As a rule of thumb, targeting horse races where the bookmaker maintains their 1/4 odds place terms as they increase the number of places that they pay out on whilst offering out a generous overround is what we look for with this strategy.
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Hi Liam, many thanks for breaking this down, I must have spent an hour watching this and winding your clip back to understand what to do 🙂
If you manipulate the "Actual Stake" on the spread sheet you can change the Min Profit percentage in your favour:
In your example you spread £10 evenly across all horses. So the horses with the worst odds will have a lower profit and the horses with better odds with give you a higher profit.....with me so far?
If you weight your stakes so the horses with the "worst" odds (e.g twisted dreams at 4) have a higher stake than the horses with better odds you can change the min profit as its more likely the those horses as going to win or place therefore giving you a much higher return on minimum stake.
I found it best to put £50 stake in the spreadsheet on the horse with the lowest odds and work my way down the list finishing with the horse with the highest odds, if seen 10 - 30% improvement in minimum profits on this calculator.
If you put all the data in and start with £10 actual stake on every horse and your min profit lies at 20% you've got a great chance to manipulate this to bring you're min profit to a +%
Prep your sheet.
In cell C2 type
=1/$B2
Then drag that down the rest of the column and beyond.
In D2 type
=(($B2-1)/0.25)+1
Then drag that down.
Do this prior to filling in the odds and they’ll auto populate as you enter the odds saving you time.
Came here to do the same thing 😊👍
Very helpful guide, I have created my own spreadsheet using horse ew calculator and same each way stakes. one thing you must be aware of is check the NON RUNNERS, as if a horse is withdrawn the places go down. so 4 places could only pay out 3. Best time to place the bets are an hour before the race. This would be helpful to mention in the tutorial :)
If you could only bet on the 'place' (rather than each way) you are guaranteed a profit by dutching because the overround is less than 100%. But you are forced to bet each way so you need to combine the win overround with the place overround. That will give a result substantially above 100%. This is just like any other bet where the bookie will win, albeit with a slightly less profit for the bookie. The example you give shows the result with high odds for the top 4. The more likely result is low odds top 4 which will result in a loss.
OK I get the theory. But what do you do when selecting a race and preparing to bet like this? Dp you just take any race where the bookie will pay 25% of the win odds on Place 1-4 and then bet e/w on every horse? Or do you still go through the spreadsheet routine to check other things? If so what extra features/calculations do you need to see before you bet?
I thought dutching used variable stakes to ensure an optimised outcome whatever the result. Using a 10 basic stake is leaving you open to some big losses should all the best horses win I think. Your example assumes high odds horses will win, which can’t happen very often surely, or am I wrong,.
Can you use just one bookmaker to place all the bets? Surely they'll notice and gub you after you've done it once.?
Tempted to try this without actually placing any bets as a practice
Sometimes, less than 4 horse's will finish the race, what happens then?
So im completely new to betfair trading.. having watched your video, which was excellent by the way. Ive a theory which i want to put to you to pick your brain.. if say you have 10 horse race instead of backing all 10. Why not pick 8 and divide your stake between the 8 horses thus increasing payout potential over the 8 horses and removing the loss potential because two of the horses will undoubtedly come nowhere so essentially you are not going to lose any money on two of the horses.. but the reward for winning/placing is going to increase if that makes sense? Im still learning and im starting with £100 pot with the idea that small bets will increase the pot size gradually. Im trying to find ways to increase my pot with low risk.
Any other help would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Finally a video I can understand. This really helped thank you so much 😊
Not a problem, glad it helped!
A mistake was made when pasting the horse names and odds in. Had Jomont been placed in the orange box D18 then the sheet would have taken the stake for that horse (which is shown in cell D2) and calculated the stakes for all of the other horses to give the best possible outcome. If you didnt want to place £100ew on Jomont which is the sheet default you can change that figure and the sheet adjusts. I use the "actual" column for the times when I cant get that full stake at the bookie (though I then use another bookie to make up the difference). Hope that makes sense
is therre any page which i can know the opening odds from horse racing?
What happens it one bookie was 4 places another one was 6 places and another one 5 places do you put the lowest in
Surely you wouldn’t do this on the same bookie would you? But if you don’t, other bookmakers are likely to not have this place offer on their website. You didn’t clarify about using different bookmakers. And not meaning to be pedantic but more for others, you either multiply by a quarter, or divide by four. Google seems to understand what you mean but others using something different will get crazy results. For instance technically 3 divided by a quarter is 12.
Can’t you put less on the high odds horses and more on the fav . Won’t that cut the potential loss. I’ve match bet for years and your explanation for this strat is spot on.
Glad it helped, doing this will just distribute your exposure in a different way across the field, in general for this to be completely profitable the odds need to be favourable across the entire dutch
It's really not practical to have 10 bet365 accounts to bet on each horse. Cant this be done on an exchange?
I'm not sure if I'm understanding the placing the actual bet side of things. If you place all these bets with one Bookmaker wouldnt that be a red flag to the bookmaker as in they can see what your trying to do? Using your example above do I need 13 different bookmakers to place this bet so placing one bet each way 13 times? Can you advise?
Yes Sergio, good point. You should probably only place 1..2 horses per bookmaker. Even if you only bet on one horse, if you're constantly only betting on their "extra place" offers you can be sure they will gub you / stake restrict you and that is "game over" then for that bookmaker.
What happens if you keep landing in the Minus profit bracket like 4 or 5 times in a row?
If your unlucky and this happens to you 4 or 5 times in a row you will make a loss each time.
For this reason, it's important not to apply this extra place strategy across each and every horse race.
It's best to target races that have a small/tight win overound as close to 100% as possible as the place odds and overround is derived from this. You should also look for races to have multiple extra places paid out on with the fractional payout being ¼.
If and when you find these criteria it's likely that the maximum possible downside you can take is very small in relation to your maximum possible upside.
So had the 1st 2nd 3rd 4th favourite placed in that order I presume we would make a loss ? Do you not need to lay any of these ?
So to choose which race to use the place overound % has to be as closest to 100%? For example if a horse race gives me 80% place overound and another 90%, I should bet on the 90%?
You want the place overound figure to be as far below 100% and as close to 0% as you possibly can.
Anything above 100% represents value to the bookmaker, so getting the overound as low as possible will provide you with a small downside in relation to your upside.
In your example, 80% would be better.
Another excellent video.
Much appreciated, thanks for watching 👍
I've tried this strategy as mentioned in the video on a Saturday, Doncaster 22 runner race. I'm new to this, so I gave this a go with the minimum 1 EW stake, which worked on gubbed accounts too.
I'd stick to certain percentages, a 50% loss, and minimum of 180-200% profit would make sense using this strategy IMO. On this race my maximum loss would have been 49%, maximum profit 476%. Actual outcome was 112,26% ROI, which added up to 44,86 pounds on these restricted stakes.
Oddschecker is a great help on determining which bookmaker to use for certain horses.
My only hesitation using this strategy is unexpected non-runners before the race, which could affect extra places being paid, which might bite into the pre-calculated sheet.
Thanks for the info, great explanation!
Liam, being cheeky any chance to get a copy of the spreadsheet?
Which one of the spreadsheets are you referring to Paul?
@@ProfitPineapple Liam, I think i can make your example if | view the video a few time. The other spread sheet ? Thanks
is it a good idea to do it all on one bookie? on some events only one bookie does the extra places etc
This can be risky for account health, it’s recommended to hit no more horses than the amount of places paid per bookmaker.
This technique works really well with huge horse races (commonly at the Cheltenham festival) with various bookmakers paying out on lots of EP’s
@@ProfitPineapple so what is the best way to dutch? have a mix of different book makers? what do you mean by this? ("it’s recommended to hit no more horses than the amount of places paid per bookmaker") ? please explain??
@@oyekunlesalami7482 It's best to have as many bookmaker accounts as you can and split the horses across them.
In terms of hitting no more horses than the places paid…
If Bet365 were paying out on 4 places total, its recommended on OddsMonkeys website to get on no more than 4 places with that bookmaker account
the ev is 1/overround x stake
so for your example the ev is -40 quid
Hi Aaron, thanks for your comment mate.
I had a look at the your equation and I’m struggling to find how you managed to calculate a negative EV of -£40.
I tried taking the number one and running this across each of the overround figures (win, initial place book and the overround for 4 places) and multiplying each figure by my total stake £260 and none give me a value of -£40.
For an equation to provide a negative value there must be at least one term which is negative, as the overround and stake are both positive values it isn’t possible for an equation to provide a negative EV.
Please clarify the exact equation you used
Think you have missed out the dutching part of the trade? If any of the more fancied horses had won or been placed you would have lost.
That is generally a downside to dutching the field in many horse races, making a profit is quite commonly reliant on an outsider winning the race. For this reason it’s important to ensure your downside is very small in relation to your upside
@@ProfitPineapple But if you Dutch them with a 96% book you should be able to make a profit whoever wins the race, you have placed the same stake on every runner, rather than proportional to their odds?
@@antagonistic9009 If you dutch the win market with an overround below 100% you will absolutely guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome, however this doesn't work in the same way when dutching the e/w market rather bizarrely. I have found that the lower the figure of the place book after dividing the places paid out on by the bookmaker by the initial place book number the smaller the downside is in relation to the upside.
You can use the spreadsheet to change your each-way stake that you want to use on different runners in proportion to their odds, this will manipulate your potential return
@@ProfitPineapple Agh ok, did not realise it would not work in a place market, can’t say I have ever used a bookie since Betfair started. best of luck with it then.
@@ProfitPineapple so are you saying that with your example above, if the favoured horse actually won, you would have lost money? i thought getting the 4th extra place would have guaranteed the profit if we follow as you explained in the video?