Awesome video. I dabbled with this a few years ago just placing the +EV bets with BOG. After an initial upswing, then losing some of those profits I stopped though. One very important thing that I haven't seen mentioned is that the each way odds are subject to change if there are non-runners. This can cause the each way part of the bet to become less/not-profitable and needs to be considered.
Guys I’m drunk and I think I got the rough idea about how things like this work. What I want to know is are there any guys on this channel who can verify that this is a serious opportunity to make a sensible living. I want to hear from viewers and not posters. I can see the sense in this. I’m going to read through this myself when I’m not drunk and I’m very interested. I’m not a mug punter. I’m going to have a look before we talk anymore. One thing I like to see is probably people being real xx
Hey Neill, I'm the OP but I'll give you the most direct answer I can and I'm sure others will add to it. This is clearly something that works from the numbers and it can turn a nice result if you have quite a large bankroll and stick to the numbers mathmatically without deviating. It's advantage play. However, the downside is the sportsbooks - they monitor such behaviour (all winning behaviour) and know all the tricks so after a while they will certainly start to ask questions or restrict bet sizes on your account which obviously prohibits the chance to make lots from it. I do know of people who do it full time although wouldn't recommend it though this strategy, it becomes a game of cat and mouse trying to get bets on which isn't fun. As a side-income or top-up thousands do it and use services like oddsmonkey that help them with tools etc. Unfortunately, the reality is - if you're using a bookmaker/sportsbook they will only let you continue if you lose consistently. They have algorithims and traders checking things all over the place to ban winners whilst allowing losers to crack on, the sharper you are and the more positive expected value you take in your activity the quicker they will be looking at you it's just how things work. Using exchanges however is a different story! They don't care as everyone pays commission and bets against eachother. Only downside there is after 1/4 mil profit Betfair slap the account with an extra 'premium charge' which is something explained in other videos on the channel. Hope that helps :) p.s. hope the hangover was worth it!
In summary The method works It's more a bankroll builder than a means to make a living as you will get your accounts suspended. Also you need a relatively large bankroll to make any serious money from it look at the example given you need several hundred just to make a tenner.
You share such good succinct information at your own cost, asking nothing in return but a like and subscribe. I see value there, but more so for us punters.
Always enjoy your vids...... Previously did quite nicely as a matched bettor, but have done nothing in the last year or so.... ended up with a lot of restricted accounts, which no longer offered free bet incentives. Then did very nicely on footie accumulators until that dried up. Now, I must be missing something here. My understanding from this is that I place E/W bet with a bookie on a race where I've located an edge. I lay it at the exchange. Why does simply placing an E/W bet with a bookie on a regular basis lead to me being restricted? How do they know that I'm laying it off elsewhere? Or is it that some software/algorithm indicates that I only bet on races where an edge has been detected?
Was thinking exactly the same. Also wondering why bother with the win part. Why not just bet on the place portion at 1.875 and then lay it off on Betfair at a stake value that would guarantee a profit whatever the result.
because you're taking value for a mum that's the only thing they care about whether you win or lose it doesn't matter you were taking a value position in bad each way races particularly on the place section.
@@CaanBerryProTrader that is true but smaller stakes will extend the life and reduce the chances of losing an account before profiting from it. One big firm gubbed me years ago (like 10 years), and I've recently started using it again with no restrictions!
i smashed these races once upon a time and got restricted from every account - was also the basis that kevin booth used to tip his horses with Isiris about 20 years ago
As I said, they will do that. They're corporations that aren't going to let people sign up and take money off them repeatedly! If accounts aren't getting restricted, you're wasting your time. Its just the truth!
Hi Caan - Great vid as always. Just wondering if you can explain option C in more detail. I am just struggling to get my head around the numbers on the "lay the place liability with exchange". Please can you try explain that in a little more detail? Maybe some numbers from your example would help on how to 'lay the liability' rather than hedging. Thanks
How do they clock on about it. Who bans you first, 365 or betfair? If your only laying with betfair and backing only on 365 I don’t no how they will clock on
When looking at a place bet on Betfair for a top 3 finish, the back price is 1.02 and the lay is 1000. Are they saying this horse will deffo place or deffo not place? Newbie here, trying to get and understanding on how it works.
Interesting video. I used to do something similar but with fixed odds Football to help avoid scary fluctuations whilst striking the bets. The bookies used to put out their fixed odds coupons early in the week and keep to the prices on them. Again looking at betting and laying off various games where there was value in such a way as to make a small profit regardless of the result. I managed to do it for 3 months but it was getting so difficult to get a bet on that I packed in eventually. You have to bet big to make decent cash though is the only thing.
Yes I think a loto of people get mislead on this by the media. Successful sports betting is much like stockmarket investing, its a game of small margins over time and limiting risk. The way to speed things up is with staking - which the house trys to prohibit, because they know it works.
You have done some very good videos over the years, this is arguably the best yet in terms of educating viewers of a very profitable way to exploit a mathematical edge. Fantastic job of breaking this process down in a simplistic way for everyone to understand.
Bad E/W races have been around since the old king died - unfortunately nowadays you'll be stake restricted before you think you've just discovered the latest money printing machine
They have indeed mate, however, I've found some online providers won't restrict that fast at all. Coupling it up with extra places and stuff too can be helpful on a weekend if they are doing a ridiculous promo. But im sure you knew that!
Have you ever seen a poor homeless bookie ? I know i haven`t . I like a flutter now and again but i know there`s only really one winner at the finishing post. The lockdown results were so aimed at covering the bookies supposed lost track betting revenue it stank to high heaven 💩💩😤
No nonsense great video 👍 👏. Your efforts are very much appreciated by me and I hope most of your followers .it makes sense. And I will follow your advice. Very simple 👌 maths but great profit 📈 potential in the long run 🏃♂️..great tips. Bookmakers must hate you...
I find that the bookies know what an Each Way Stealer is and; 1. Close your account 2. Reduce the win odds 3. On course, the SP firm only takes into account EW books. 4. Arbitrage means the BF lay price rises to meet demand. But nice work if you can get it. Which do you prefer; A. A bet to nothing or B. Green up?
Except you're not. Your bet with the bookie will win or lose the same as it always has. If it loses, you are making up the shortfall from another exchange player.
A really well made video - and some good points but ithere are some serious caveats includiing ; When was the exchange ever equal to a bookmkers price ? Never ! Exchange is always bigger and therefore a simultaneous bet and lay is impossible ! Bookmkers up and down the country are using the exchange themselves and taking a margin where it suits them themselves between their price and the exchange. Betfair commisions are now increasing and therefore tight margin arbitraging is more difficult after commisions . In order to lay your win portion of the bookie bet youd need to hope the horse is backed in to a lower price on the exchange and only then can you strike the saving lay bet
Thanks Tony, I appreciate the feedback. to answer your questions - it happens fairly regular I'm the live shows, that's when the example was recorded and it was the first race I looked at to record. obviously not all selections in the field match the exchange price but your find one or two regularly. Betfair commission have three different tiers available to customers 2% 5% and 8% depending on what bonuses you want, I'd advise 2%. Other exchanges are available. I wouldnt advised hoping I just look for the opportunities intact on what's available there and then, the place markets are more liquid in the final live show too, either way you're onto a winner with this strategy because there's a significant margin in the place section.
@@CaanBerryProTrader what value have u given anyone in this video though? What if they don’t get matched 4.5? Which u know they wouldn’t 🤔 you’ve given a break even at best maybe a -ev one
Do that few times and your account will be restricted...These days it doesn't take long to be restricted especially when you bet each way on the ponies.
Then why do the bookies offer it, if they're going to restrict you if you make use of something they're actually offering. Why is it suspicious doing reach way bets
Hey Caan Berry I really like your content and I need advice from you. I am thinking about arbitrage betting and I want to start doing it. I found a free tool called Arb Adviser, but I want to hear your opinion about arbitrage betting and this tool because you have much more experience. Is it worth it or not? Hope that you will answer my question!
Good strategy providing you can place your lay bets on an exchange. However, this is not an option in South Africa, but I note the profitability and maths. Well done
@@CaanBerryProTrader we have interbet, but that is a bookmakers exchange and the public can only place a beer but not lay one. Odds are usually better but it's not a Betfair
Give up on SkyBet months ago with no best odds guaranteed, just use the Ladbrokes app and shop in local town ,, at the beginning skybet was ok but with restrictions on MAX payout and No BOG cyaaaaa
I got banned from nearly all online bookmakers for similar strategies. They are not silly but I had a good run. Warning do not lay bets with Betfair, they do communicate with other bookmakers. I used Smarkets for my laying
Great video. Maybe I’m missing something as a newbie, but why are the bookies concerned about this type of betting (so long as the rating is under 100% and there’s no arb betting)? Whether you are laying your bet off or not doesn’t seem to effect the bookies profit/loss?? Advice on this appreciated
Just to make sure I'm getting this: The strategy is to look for races where the bookies odds for EW places is higher than the exchange. Then place a EW bet on the bookies while simultaneously placing a counter EW bet on the exchange?
there are four different exchanges to choose from smarkets Betfair BETDAQ and matchbook, you can see all of their exchange odds for free without logging in.
Decimal odds. Remove 1 (the stake) you got 3.5, divide that and you get 0.875. Then put your returned stake back on. 1.875. Other comments asked the same :)
Here lad to much talking ,and no results it's got too the stage now I can't listen to you, gab gab gab to much gab tell people something new they don't know, your just talking crap, try listening to your recording yourself and you will see what I mean, you will soon see turn your self off 🤣🤣🤣🤣👎👎👎👎👎
This is the common trap people fall into, its also why "results" catch people out so much. Maybe you'd prefer me sat in front of a Ferrari throwing cash in the air? lol
Are you not in a country with an exchange? An exchange is where people bet against eachother instead of the house. Like eBay but for sports bets. Lay is the side of the person that takes the bet. So if you bet against me, I would be laying your bet. Have a look for some explainers on Betfair exchange or Smarkets exchange, they will make it clearer.
If your bets are losing regularly with the bookie (so you win mostly on the exchange) surely they won't ban you will they? That's what's happened to me this week almost every bet I made (and I did about 30 including free bets) lost at the bookies but won at the exchange! I really wish I'd known & understood the place gap strategy, especially in the gold Cup though... I'll need to get that sorted in my brain before the grand national!!
PS, first week of match betting this week and I made about £300! Of course that was mostly free bets, so I'm not sure how to maintain that without creating extra "fake accounts", having said that I see there's at least another 10 bookies I've not signed up with yet, and I still have free bets left over too... Interesting side note though, I did spot when getting on American horse races that I could put extra lay bets on after the race started, because if you are betting on a longer odds horse they are often in the running to start with so the lay odds can drop quite quickly just after the start... Obviously it's a BIT risky as they don't always, and of course there is always the danger of them winning too... This is back to proper gambling of course, so not really recommended, but I had a bit of fun with it while practicing!
Trouble is, if you are winning on the exchange and not the bookie, you are hemouraging massive value in the odds when you factor in commission too. Makes it non-viable. The reason the money goes from the exchange to the bookies when you bet at +EV is because thats where the value is. Doing it the other way doesn't work because you lose through the -EV odds and also the commission piled on top. So sure you can be happy your account stays open, but it costs a fortune.
Hi Caan, Thank you for this very informative video. Is there a quick method for finding the best definable value in these markets on different sports books or software available to help find them ?
Is there high street bet off limits. Never used to be. Placed 20 50 100. Take it 200 is ok to place ? Or more in cash booties. Not gone cash less yet have they high street bookies ?
Free calculators all over the internet mate, just have to search them. Each way betting calculator should do it. Different ways to play it so make sure you're calculating for the outcome you want though as shown in the vid.
It would have made a few pence difference. There are far better examples most days but this was just to show how it works. Rather do that than promise people the earth and find the best opportunity of the week. Ultimately they'd be disapointed if I did that. I know its how others operate though :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader You suggested a profit of £9.81 using 4.5 as your lay price and a stake of £100 e/way.The 0.1 difference would lead to an overall loss,there is no way any sensible punter would take 4.5 from you on the exchange and pay 2% commission when the 7/2 available with the bookmaker has no commission.
The only reason people this because they think they are going to get solid information to help them win this isn't going to happen watching this so just move on
I used to do this and earning a tenner was nice work. BUT putting £200 on a horse in the bookies soon gets you noticed. (The rest were putting on 20p accumulators). They had me in as a problem gambler and limited me to £50. You can’t really explain that you’re laying off on BF!
Also a bit misleading - you showed 3.5 on bet365 and 3.5 on exchanges - 98/100 the exchanges price is way higher than 3.5 - such as a 7/1 chance on bet365 being 14/1 on exchanges. I rarely see prices on each way steals on win markets with bookies and exchanges being comparable!
No it was definately 4.5 on 365. They are higher generally speaking, but thats part of the strategy. It's not like it's rare where they match either, happens every day. Unfortunately it's not just a conveyor belt of free money with no account restrictions.
100% This. You would have to be extremely lucky, or get in within seconds of a race being priced up for you to have any chance whatsoever of backing a horse with the bookies and immediately laying it at that same price on the exchanges - it just doesn't happen like that !
It’s not exactly some deep dark secret, it’s just a standard bookie and exchange arb. Every successful better is banned with the bookies so this doesn’t really help anyone looking for a sustainable betting strat.
Looks interesting. Just tried it. £5 e/w on a horse @5.0 . Lay bet at 6.6 - (stake £3.80) and another lay bet against the e/w 2.84 (£4.05). i think i have got my lay bet for the e/w wrong - Horse lost and so i lost the placed stake of £10 and got back from smarkets £2.20 and 3.84 - so i lost £3.95.. help me................
Essentially this is just another way of seeking out arbs between bookies and the exchange, so likely to be a quick route to gubbing / heavy stake restrictions?
just another way of finding +EV bets yes. Unfortunately placing bets at -EV guarantees you lose, which is why bookies don't restrict them! if you're not getting gubbed or restricted you're doing it wrong. To expect them to take bets where they lose money and you don't get restricted is a bit mad too :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader yeah I guess this the downside of the invention of exchanges. It felt a bit more of a genuine battle beforehand, trying to price things yourself to identify where you believed the odds were wrong and backing yourself with your cash - where bookies didn't have the same sophistication / armies of statisticians that make it almost impossible for anyone now to outthink (unless you have the resources of Tony Bloom!) and punters didn't have the exchange price to make it black and white where the value was. Just wish I had the ability to start fresh accounts with all the big boys that no longer take my bets :)
I don't really get what is being taught here. What is the criteria for selecting qualifying races? Which horse should be selected in the race? What should be the odds range or odds difference of the selected horse in the exchange and in the sportsbook? What is the mathematical formula for placing all the bets to give a profitable outcome, no matter the result, as stated in the example?
To calculate it You can use an each way calculator, or you can calculate it yourself. An each way bet , as Caan said , it s basically two bets in one , so you need to calculate both to figure out how much you need to bet. Finding the right horses is a more complicated matter...
unfortunately can't make it much simpler. If you're new to this sort of advantage play it's well worth your time to re-watch and take the time to digest what's being shown here. You don't see it shared anywhere else :)
If you keep hitting the same shops to Arb you will get clocked in no time. To make high street betting viable for Arbing you will have to travel, sometime a good distance, to make it work.
So in theory if I place a £5 win on a 4-1 horse at say Hills to win £25 I'm then looking to lay that horse for £15 at at least 1.5 at betfair to make a profit??
I'm sure you're not at all :) take a look at those numbers near the end again and see how the different outcomes cancel any risk whilst leaving some juice. Its pretty much the opposite of how bookies play.
Hi Caan, please reply if you see this.. big fan of the channel. I've been doing this for a while with some success. However I've noticed BF exchange literally has its own each way market. Surely when the lay odds are lower there than on the bookies sites, it would be quicker (and easier) to just lay all at once like that rather than splitting it into two separate bets. I feel like I'm missing something here, maybe just less liquidity in this BF market?
There's less liquidity and you gotta make sure it's the right market with the same place terms - usually the bookies offering is that bad that there needs to be a very large skew in odds... Or a promo.
great video, the only thing im confused about, the only option on the bookmaker is an each way bet, on the exchange you do a bet on placed. what is the difference ?
@@CaanBerryProTrader thank you for replying much appreciated, where is the best calculator to work out all the odds and options for this video, as i cant find a multi option calculator ?
Every bookie gubbs anyone that wins, its how they operate. It's a sign you're doing it right. They're sumbags! If you're not getting restricted, you aren't winning money - don't see the point in that myself.
Hi mate banging video mate just wondering where you got the 1.875 odds from for the place bet can you explain please. Because I thought it was 4.5 divide by 4. Thanks
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks mate for the quick reply that makes sense. So correct me if I’m wrong. For places what ever the odds are say 5.5 or 4.8 etc you have to subtract 1 for the stake then divide the remainder by the quarter or fifth etc and then add the stake (1) back on
All very interesting What happens - when you only bet a small amount ? £5 E/W The odd would have to be 10/1 ?Betting £100 - E/W - Horse /Donkey Not in first 3 ? - Soon Be Homeless 😍🤣😂😂 Sure you Not Working for Bookmakers ? 🤣🤣🤣
When you bet a small amount it's still value? value is value, no matter the stake size. Can you explain a bit more as doesn't really make sense ...and no, the bookies hate me, they'd never pay me in a million years :D
There's another helpful strategy video here once you've finished this one! Always win long term: ruclips.net/video/3cEdjH4TBh4/видео.html
I would want to have a conversation with you about the games
load of bollocks exchange prices are always higher so it dosnt work
How can I going to pay you from Nigeria 🇳🇬
That's what I want to do
I'd had a "couple" of beers when I viewed this video, so I'll be back to take another look when I've just had "one!" LOL
Am sober but still didnt get it lol....gonna re-watch it another 100 times so it sinks in..maybe make some notes etc lol
Defo one for a clear head, George. Enjoy, its a decent one.
Hahaha
You still be non the wiser
Maybe give up the beers
i have NO idea what the heck youre talking about !
Awesome video. I dabbled with this a few years ago just placing the +EV bets with BOG. After an initial upswing, then losing some of those profits I stopped though. One very important thing that I haven't seen mentioned is that the each way odds are subject to change if there are non-runners. This can cause the each way part of the bet to become less/not-profitable and needs to be considered.
Why did you stop
facepalm
He’s that good he has to make money on you tube
You gotta be right mug to put 213£ to £9
Guys I’m drunk and I think I got the rough idea about how things like this work. What I want to know is are there any guys on this channel who can verify that this is a serious opportunity to make a sensible living. I want to hear from viewers and not posters. I can see the sense in this. I’m going to read through this myself when I’m not drunk and I’m very interested. I’m not a mug punter. I’m going to have a look before we talk anymore. One thing I like to see is probably people being real xx
Hey Neill, I'm the OP but I'll give you the most direct answer I can and I'm sure others will add to it. This is clearly something that works from the numbers and it can turn a nice result if you have quite a large bankroll and stick to the numbers mathmatically without deviating. It's advantage play. However, the downside is the sportsbooks - they monitor such behaviour (all winning behaviour) and know all the tricks so after a while they will certainly start to ask questions or restrict bet sizes on your account which obviously prohibits the chance to make lots from it. I do know of people who do it full time although wouldn't recommend it though this strategy, it becomes a game of cat and mouse trying to get bets on which isn't fun. As a side-income or top-up thousands do it and use services like oddsmonkey that help them with tools etc. Unfortunately, the reality is - if you're using a bookmaker/sportsbook they will only let you continue if you lose consistently. They have algorithims and traders checking things all over the place to ban winners whilst allowing losers to crack on, the sharper you are and the more positive expected value you take in your activity the quicker they will be looking at you it's just how things work. Using exchanges however is a different story! They don't care as everyone pays commission and bets against eachother. Only downside there is after 1/4 mil profit Betfair slap the account with an extra 'premium charge' which is something explained in other videos on the channel. Hope that helps :) p.s. hope the hangover was worth it!
In summary
The method works
It's more a bankroll builder than a means to make a living as you will get your accounts suspended.
Also you need a relatively large bankroll to make any serious money from it look at the example given you need several hundred just to make a tenner.
You share such good succinct information at your own cost, asking nothing in return but a like and subscribe. I see value there, but more so for us punters.
thank you feel that's the way it should be isn't it? I'll endeavour to do more like this soon.
Thank you caan always throwing light into the betting community.
No problem, I appreciate it. Thank you these kind of comments make it worthwhile :)
Surely if the horse is not placed then you would lose all your bet and that’s going to take a long time to recover
Always enjoy your vids...... Previously did quite nicely as a matched bettor, but have done nothing in the last year or so.... ended up with a lot of restricted accounts, which no longer offered free bet incentives. Then did very nicely on footie accumulators until that dried up. Now, I must be missing something here. My understanding from this is that I place E/W bet with a bookie on a race where I've located an edge. I lay it at the exchange. Why does simply placing an E/W bet with a bookie on a regular basis lead to me being restricted? How do they know that I'm laying it off elsewhere? Or is it that some software/algorithm indicates that I only bet on races where an edge has been detected?
Was thinking exactly the same.
Also wondering why bother with the win part. Why not just bet on the place portion at 1.875 and then lay it off on Betfair at a stake value that would guarantee a profit whatever the result.
because you're taking value for a mum that's the only thing they care about whether you win or lose it doesn't matter you were taking a value position in bad each way races particularly on the place section.
Good luck keeping accounts open with £50 e/w stakes in bad each way
Good luck keeping accounts open if you are doing anything except throwing money down the drain! :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader that is true but smaller stakes will extend the life and reduce the chances of losing an account before profiting from it. One big firm gubbed me years ago (like 10 years), and I've recently started using it again with no restrictions!
i smashed these races once upon a time and got restricted from every account - was also the basis that kevin booth used to tip his horses with Isiris about 20 years ago
As I said, they will do that. They're corporations that aren't going to let people sign up and take money off them repeatedly! If accounts aren't getting restricted, you're wasting your time. Its just the truth!
The infamous Isiris I was a member what a character Mr Booth was
This is a pretty good strategy, I used it myself with some variations and it does deliver.
yes it's very reliable, but like all good ones, the sportsbooks try to stop anyone doing it.
Well explained sir thank you for the hint 🙏 big fan from India 🇮🇳
No problem thank you!
Exchange is a mess in Australia
agree with this, even it’s very hard to find +EV
He never uses the letter r when he speaks, sorry so annoying , can’t listen to you..
sorry to hear that!
Hi Caan - Great vid as always. Just wondering if you can explain option C in more detail. I am just struggling to get my head around the numbers on the "lay the place liability with exchange". Please can you try explain that in a little more detail? Maybe some numbers from your example would help on how to 'lay the liability' rather than hedging. Thanks
How do they clock on about it. Who bans you first, 365 or betfair?
If your only laying with betfair and backing only on 365 I don’t no how they will clock on
When looking at a place bet on Betfair for a top 3 finish, the back price is 1.02 and the lay is 1000. Are they saying this horse will deffo place or deffo not place?
Newbie here, trying to get and understanding on how it works.
This is ok for a sharb but doing it on an account will get you gubbed
All profitable strategies will. In shop they will let you have £100 each way in most cases without question.
Interesting video. I used to do something similar but with fixed odds Football to help avoid scary fluctuations whilst striking the bets. The bookies used to put out their fixed odds coupons early in the week and keep to the prices on them. Again looking at betting and laying off various games where there was value in such a way as to make a small profit regardless of the result. I managed to do it for 3 months but it was getting so difficult to get a bet on that I packed in eventually. You have to bet big to make decent cash though is the only thing.
Yes I think a loto of people get mislead on this by the media. Successful sports betting is much like stockmarket investing, its a game of small margins over time and limiting risk. The way to speed things up is with staking - which the house trys to prohibit, because they know it works.
You have done some very good videos over the years, this is arguably the best yet in terms of educating viewers of a very profitable way to exploit a mathematical edge. Fantastic job of breaking this process down in a simplistic way for everyone to understand.
Thanks for such kind words. Will endeavour to share a few more things then, appreciate the comment.
I dont think this works in Australia?? The fixed odds arent 1/4
Bad E/W races have been around since the old king died - unfortunately nowadays you'll be stake restricted before you think you've just discovered the latest money printing machine
They have indeed mate, however, I've found some online providers won't restrict that fast at all. Coupling it up with extra places and stuff too can be helpful on a weekend if they are doing a ridiculous promo. But im sure you knew that!
Have you ever seen a poor homeless bookie ? I know i haven`t . I like a flutter now and again but i know there`s only really one winner at the finishing post. The lockdown results were so aimed at covering the bookies supposed lost track betting revenue it stank to high heaven 💩💩😤
There are many bookies that have folded because they weren't making book.
That's great stuff, but at days end, that's all work, isn't it?, and there's a thousand ways in life to make money easier than this!
I agree, its not the best payoff, but its one that the masses can understand :)
No nonsense great video 👍 👏. Your efforts are very much appreciated by me and I hope most of your followers .it makes sense. And I will follow your advice. Very simple 👌 maths but great profit 📈 potential in the long run 🏃♂️..great tips. Bookmakers must hate you...
thanks I really appreciate it there was an extension of this strategy uploaded tonight if you look at the channel page
I find that the bookies know what an Each Way Stealer is and;
1. Close your account
2. Reduce the win odds
3. On course, the SP firm only takes into account EW books.
4. Arbitrage means the BF lay price rises to meet demand.
But nice work if you can get it.
Which do you prefer;
A. A bet to nothing or
B. Green up?
Green up, I don't like risk. Only exception is if I see an in-play edge to use the green with, but thats another task altogether.
Bookies are dcimbagd they ban you when you eon
Thank you for helping us to get one over the scummy bookies. Really appreciate these videos Caan.
No problem it's my pleasure.
Except you're not. Your bet with the bookie will win or lose the same as it always has. If it loses, you are making up the shortfall from another exchange player.
@@csb7376 lol
A really well made video - and some good points but ithere are some serious caveats includiing ; When was the exchange ever equal to a bookmkers price ? Never ! Exchange is always bigger and therefore a simultaneous bet and lay is impossible ! Bookmkers up and down the country are using the exchange themselves and taking a margin where it suits them themselves between their price and the exchange. Betfair commisions are now increasing and therefore tight margin arbitraging is more difficult after commisions . In order to lay your win portion of the bookie bet youd need to hope the horse is backed in to a lower price on the exchange and only then can you strike the saving lay bet
Thanks Tony, I appreciate the feedback. to answer your questions - it happens fairly regular I'm the live shows, that's when the example was recorded and it was the first race I looked at to record. obviously not all selections in the field match the exchange price but your find one or two regularly. Betfair commission have three different tiers available to customers 2% 5% and 8% depending on what bonuses you want, I'd advise 2%. Other exchanges are available. I wouldnt advised hoping I just look for the opportunities intact on what's available there and then, the place markets are more liquid in the final live show too, either way you're onto a winner with this strategy because there's a significant margin in the place section.
What a terrible example u used there and u know it.
Probably more miss leading with ur prices there than Hugh Taylor
There are far bigger margins on some yes, but why would I want to pick the very best one and build up peoples expectations? :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader what value have u given anyone in this video though? What if they don’t get matched 4.5? Which u know they wouldn’t 🤔 you’ve given a break even at best maybe a -ev one
Your playing such poor margins long term
Do that few times and your account will be restricted...These days it doesn't take long to be restricted especially when you bet each way on the ponies.
Yep, and if you're not getting restricted in any way you're doing it wrong. They don't tollerate winning from sportsbooks.
@@CaanBerryProTrader what about if you are at the in house bookie and lay off your phone. How are they supposed to sus that out.
Then why do the bookies offer it, if they're going to restrict you if you make use of something they're actually offering. Why is it suspicious doing reach way bets
Hey Caan Berry I really like your content and I need advice from you. I am thinking about arbitrage betting and I want to start doing it. I found a free tool called Arb Adviser, but I want to hear your opinion about arbitrage betting and this tool because you have much more experience. Is it worth it or not? Hope that you will answer my question!
Is that an advert? haha. Arbing is fair enough, low-risk strategy for making a few quid. Just dont get over-exposed on one side.
You posted a similar video where you went into a betting shop and placed £100 e/w but i cant find it, it was useful.
Yes its on the channel page up the top somewhere.
I need to understand this ? I'll have to watch a few times looks easier than trading forex .
Fixed strategy here, worth the re-watch no question. There's another video like this with a different strategy on the channel page too.
U should give us tips on hoses
Why would I do that? There's no advantage there!
Good strategy providing you can place your lay bets on an exchange.
However, this is not an option in South Africa, but I note the profitability and maths. Well done
do you not have any exchanges at all in South Africa?
@@CaanBerryProTrader we have interbet, but that is a bookmakers exchange and the public can only place a beer but not lay one. Odds are usually better but it's not a Betfair
Hi John I am also from South Africa but I'm finding it difficult to understand the video. Is there a way for you to help me understand?
Give up on SkyBet months ago with no best odds guaranteed, just use the Ladbrokes app and shop in local town ,, at the beginning skybet was ok but with restrictions on MAX payout and No BOG cyaaaaa
haha
I got banned from nearly all online bookmakers for similar strategies. They are not silly but I had a good run. Warning do not lay bets with Betfair, they do communicate with other bookmakers. I used Smarkets for my laying
Low comm on smarkets too. Decent :)
Great video. Maybe I’m missing something as a newbie, but why are the bookies concerned about this type of betting (so long as the rating is under 100% and there’s no arb betting)? Whether you are laying your bet off or not doesn’t seem to effect the bookies profit/loss?? Advice on this appreciated
Mate it IS an arb. But only on the place half of the bet.
Just to make sure I'm getting this:
The strategy is to look for races where the bookies odds for EW places is higher than the exchange. Then place a EW bet on the bookies while simultaneously placing a counter EW bet on the exchange?
dont know what the exchange is when loosing .
Where do I find the exchange market everything I Google wants me to sign up and pay
there are four different exchanges to choose from smarkets Betfair BETDAQ and matchbook, you can see all of their exchange odds for free without logging in.
I tried this once, got all my accounts gubbed within days. Probably worked well many years ago before Bookies were so greedy
Ouch, you should try it with some of the newer firms ;)
How 1/4 from 4.5 is 1.875 🤔
Decimal odds. Remove 1 (the stake) you got 3.5, divide that and you get 0.875. Then put your returned stake back on. 1.875. Other comments asked the same :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader so if you do 1£ ew is it profit or loss?
2 per 😂😂😂😂 try 7 per for australia atm
Caan, people should be thanking you all the time as you lay it all out for them to make some money from those old skinflints and twisters
Plenty do, thanks for the comment, appreciate it.
Please come up with videos of football betting.
Sure, will do soon.
Here lad to much talking ,and no results it's got too the stage now I can't listen to you, gab gab gab to much gab tell people something new they don't know, your just talking crap, try listening to your recording yourself and you will see what I mean, you will soon see turn your self off 🤣🤣🤣🤣👎👎👎👎👎
This is the common trap people fall into, its also why "results" catch people out so much. Maybe you'd prefer me sat in front of a Ferrari throwing cash in the air? lol
The terminology used here is hindering my comprehension capability.
What does 'Lay' and 'Exchange' mean?
Are you not in a country with an exchange? An exchange is where people bet against eachother instead of the house. Like eBay but for sports bets. Lay is the side of the person that takes the bet. So if you bet against me, I would be laying your bet. Have a look for some explainers on Betfair exchange or Smarkets exchange, they will make it clearer.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I'm not sure if we have Exchanges here in South Africa
Does this strategy only work with exchanges?
If your bets are losing regularly with the bookie (so you win mostly on the exchange) surely they won't ban you will they? That's what's happened to me this week almost every bet I made (and I did about 30 including free bets) lost at the bookies but won at the exchange!
I really wish I'd known & understood the place gap strategy, especially in the gold Cup though... I'll need to get that sorted in my brain before the grand national!!
PS, first week of match betting this week and I made about £300! Of course that was mostly free bets, so I'm not sure how to maintain that without creating extra "fake accounts", having said that I see there's at least another 10 bookies I've not signed up with yet, and I still have free bets left over too...
Interesting side note though, I did spot when getting on American horse races that I could put extra lay bets on after the race started, because if you are betting on a longer odds horse they are often in the running to start with so the lay odds can drop quite quickly just after the start... Obviously it's a BIT risky as they don't always, and of course there is always the danger of them winning too... This is back to proper gambling of course, so not really recommended, but I had a bit of fun with it while practicing!
Trouble is, if you are winning on the exchange and not the bookie, you are hemouraging massive value in the odds when you factor in commission too. Makes it non-viable. The reason the money goes from the exchange to the bookies when you bet at +EV is because thats where the value is. Doing it the other way doesn't work because you lose through the -EV odds and also the commission piled on top. So sure you can be happy your account stays open, but it costs a fortune.
@@CaanBerryProTrader what's +EV and -EV?
Positive expected value / negative expected value. Have a google of them!
Backing in bad EW races will get you marked regardless of result.
Hi Caan,
Thank you for this very informative video. Is there a quick method for finding the best definable value in these markets on different sports books or software available to help find them ?
Yep the best secrets are best shared on here
Is there high street bet off limits. Never used to be. Placed 20 50 100. Take it 200 is ok to place ? Or more in cash booties. Not gone cash less yet have they high street bookies ?
100 EW is probably max before you get yourself flagged.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thanks Caan
What about the commision?
It's factored into the calculation on the screen!
Is there a Software available that you can use to calculate this Caan?
Free calculators all over the internet mate, just have to search them. Each way betting calculator should do it. Different ways to play it so make sure you're calculating for the outcome you want though as shown in the vid.
Brilliant video, one of the best betting strategies I have seen explained in a clear manner.
Thanks, Clive. There are more on the channel page in a playlist.
The ''LAY'' price on Betfair was 4.6 in your example,thats means a loss,right?
It would have made a few pence difference. There are far better examples most days but this was just to show how it works. Rather do that than promise people the earth and find the best opportunity of the week. Ultimately they'd be disapointed if I did that. I know its how others operate though :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader You suggested a profit of £9.81 using 4.5 as your lay price and a stake of £100 e/way.The 0.1 difference would lead to an overall loss,there is no way any sensible punter would take 4.5 from you on the exchange and pay 2% commission when the 7/2 available with the bookmaker has no commission.
Yet again another quality video... only question I have is where do I get a each way calculater from? I've looked around but can't seem to find one 😕
I used the one in the description link mate
I'll tell you a secret, if you google "each way calculator" you'll find one at the very top.
The only reason people this because they think they are going to get solid information to help them win this isn't going to happen watching this so just move on
Its all laid out for you numbers and all bro!
I used to do this and earning a tenner was nice work.
BUT
putting £200 on a horse in the bookies soon gets you noticed. (The rest were putting on 20p accumulators).
They had me in as a problem gambler and limited me to £50.
You can’t really explain that you’re laying off on BF!
Also a bit misleading - you showed 3.5 on bet365 and 3.5 on exchanges - 98/100 the exchanges price is way higher than 3.5 - such as a 7/1 chance on bet365 being 14/1 on exchanges. I rarely see prices on each way steals on win markets with bookies and exchanges being comparable!
No it was definately 4.5 on 365. They are higher generally speaking, but thats part of the strategy. It's not like it's rare where they match either, happens every day. Unfortunately it's not just a conveyor belt of free money with no account restrictions.
Caan is right loads of value ,prenty on greyhounds if you know what your looking at bet365 and paddy with favourite market loads and loads of value
100% This. You would have to be extremely lucky, or get in within seconds of a race being priced up for you to have any chance whatsoever of backing a horse with the bookies and immediately laying it at that same price on the exchanges - it just doesn't happen like that !
They call this buying money .
+EV strategy :) The only way it should be done!
Problem with this is the Betfair liquidity, or in the case in your example the lack thereof.
If your getting banned eventually by online bookies is this possible on the high street bookies Caan?
Yes, if you see this video you'll see I did exactly that!! ruclips.net/video/3LQJhcPha4k/видео.html
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks Caan, your a top man. Appreciated.
Do booking shops on a street check your id? Is it possible to get banned from just walking into a shop?
Some do depends on how much you are betting and how often you go in there and if they really want to ban you lol.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks mate. We have load of them in London so if they ban me online I guess I can just go to an offline shop to place the bet 😁
It’s not exactly some deep dark secret, it’s just a standard bookie and exchange arb. Every successful better is banned with the bookies so this doesn’t really help anyone looking for a sustainable betting strat.
There is such thing as a strategy, or we all would be rich, I actually had to put you on mute I was getting a headache
I just showed you the numbers, the downside being you'll get banned if you take such value.
Is there a loop hole where you can do a reverse forcast
Not that I'm aware of... only if you find prices above BSP would that be beneficial unless there's something I haven't considered.
got as far as "7 to 2 which is also 4 point 5 in decimals " (2:30 mark) and stopped
why? it is.
Looks interesting. Just tried it. £5 e/w on a horse @5.0 . Lay bet at 6.6 - (stake £3.80) and another lay bet against the e/w 2.84 (£4.05). i think i have got my lay bet for the e/w wrong - Horse lost and so i lost the placed stake of £10 and got back from smarkets £2.20 and 3.84 - so i lost £3.95.. help me................
Essentially this is just another way of seeking out arbs between bookies and the exchange, so likely to be a quick route to gubbing / heavy stake restrictions?
just another way of finding +EV bets yes. Unfortunately placing bets at -EV guarantees you lose, which is why bookies don't restrict them! if you're not getting gubbed or restricted you're doing it wrong. To expect them to take bets where they lose money and you don't get restricted is a bit mad too :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader yeah I guess this the downside of the invention of exchanges. It felt a bit more of a genuine battle beforehand, trying to price things yourself to identify where you believed the odds were wrong and backing yourself with your cash - where bookies didn't have the same sophistication / armies of statisticians that make it almost impossible for anyone now to outthink (unless you have the resources of Tony Bloom!) and punters didn't have the exchange price to make it black and white where the value was.
Just wish I had the ability to start fresh accounts with all the big boys that no longer take my bets :)
Hi caan Berry I want to make career in the gambling sites can you please guide I would really be greatful if anyone could help me on this
I don't really get what is being taught here.
What is the criteria for selecting qualifying races?
Which horse should be selected in the race?
What should be the odds range or odds difference of the selected horse in the exchange and in the sportsbook?
What is the mathematical formula for placing all the bets to give a profitable outcome, no matter the result, as stated in the example?
To calculate it You can use an each way calculator, or you can calculate it yourself. An each way bet , as Caan said , it s basically two bets in one , so you need to calculate both to figure out how much you need to bet. Finding the right horses is a more complicated matter...
unfortunately can't make it much simpler. If you're new to this sort of advantage play it's well worth your time to re-watch and take the time to digest what's being shown here. You don't see it shared anywhere else :)
If you keep hitting the same shops to Arb you will get clocked in no time. To make high street betting viable for Arbing you will have to travel, sometime a good distance, to make it work.
Hi Caan. Do you have a strategy for picking losing horses? Rather lay than back. Many thanks
So in theory if I place a £5 win on a 4-1 horse at say Hills to win £25 I'm then looking to lay that horse for £15 at at least 1.5 at betfair to make a profit??
Wow I feel dumb...literally not got a clue.🤦😫
I'm sure you're not at all :) take a look at those numbers near the end again and see how the different outcomes cancel any risk whilst leaving some juice. Its pretty much the opposite of how bookies play.
I will dedicate some time tomorrow to go through it more thoroughly....sure once I grasp it i should be OK, thanks so much for your advice.🙏
Hi Caan, please reply if you see this.. big fan of the channel. I've been doing this for a while with some success. However I've noticed BF exchange literally has its own each way market. Surely when the lay odds are lower there than on the bookies sites, it would be quicker (and easier) to just lay all at once like that rather than splitting it into two separate bets. I feel like I'm missing something here, maybe just less liquidity in this BF market?
There's less liquidity and you gotta make sure it's the right market with the same place terms - usually the bookies offering is that bad that there needs to be a very large skew in odds... Or a promo.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thank Caan, appreciate the reply
This is great I presume you can do this on smarkets aswell ?
yes.
yes.
This is not good
Great video. How do you work out 1.875 as the odds for the place bet?
I just found out lower in the comments, thanks Caan
Sorry for the late reply :) another video later you might find an interesting watch.
great video, the only thing im confused about, the only option on the bookmaker is an each way bet, on the exchange you do a bet on placed. what is the difference ?
Place bets are for the place section of the EW bet, because there are 2 sections. The Win and the Place.
@@CaanBerryProTrader thank you for replying much appreciated, where is the best calculator to work out all the odds and options for this video, as i cant find a multi option calculator ?
No future in it .One way street to Gubsville....
Every bookie gubbs anyone that wins, its how they operate. It's a sign you're doing it right. They're sumbags! If you're not getting restricted, you aren't winning money - don't see the point in that myself.
Another way for me to lose a fortune lol no got a clue what you are going on about here
If you don't know the game you're playing, how can you win? Good idea to read up and understand market limitations and follow the maths as shown here.
I get the concept but instantly lost in the jargon and convertoing odds to decimal
Oh I may need to watch this over again. Em how do you put an EW bet on shop and lay on exchange?
Easiest way to get banned from the bookies.
...is to win.
Awesome video Caan. Is there any scalability with this, as in the more you back (and subsequentlly lay) the more profit can be made?
You can scale to what they will let you have on. When they realise, it wont be much. Take what you can!
Ew above 4-1 was wat started making my betting pay
But where’s the excitement in winning £9 lol
It's in the actual winning, supposed to throwing money away on underround odds like the rest of the mugs :D
been doing this for a few weeks, been suspended on most bookies what do i do to keep profiting?
Hi mate banging video mate just wondering where you got the 1.875 odds from for the place bet can you explain please. Because I thought it was 4.5 divide by 4. Thanks
4.5 includes your stake, 3.5 is the total return, divide that by 4 and put the stake back on :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader thanks mate for the quick reply that makes sense. So correct me if I’m wrong. For places what ever the odds are say 5.5 or 4.8 etc you have to subtract 1 for the stake then divide the remainder by the quarter or fifth etc and then add the stake (1) back on
correct.
Thanks is there a quick way to find these sort of bets or just putting the time in and looking through each race
Dont talk mor sho as
Didn't quite understand that? It does show...
Hello sir
Please how get that top 1 to 5 or any number on paddy power
So If you're just a punter and not a trader and you find value in 7/2 shots each way in small fields this will get you banned?
probably
...do you think they care who you are? If you take value, you get banned and restricted. Even if its by accident.
@@CaanBerryProTrader yh pathetic
Thanks m8 new to this what is the exchange and how do I bet with it
Thanks 🙏
All very interesting
What happens - when you only bet a small amount ? £5 E/W
The odd would have to be 10/1 ?Betting £100 - E/W - Horse /Donkey
Not in first 3 ? - Soon Be Homeless
😍🤣😂😂 Sure you Not Working for Bookmakers ? 🤣🤣🤣
When you bet a small amount it's still value? value is value, no matter the stake size. Can you explain a bit more as doesn't really make sense ...and no, the bookies hate me, they'd never pay me in a million years :D