Hyderabad real estate is on a brink of collapse. Many people booked under construction flats and supply is very high. Now the investors are unable to find end users and exit their investment. The interviewer forgot to ask about supply and demand of inventory.
I met someone yesterday who was hugely boastful that he invested in 3 RE deal.. 2 residential and 1 commercial property which will take care of his retirement.. half of middle class thinks he is doing super by “investing “ in RE
@@architgemini9411exactly..even I didn't get it...even in simple interest terms it's just 4.5% pa..I nvr saw such low interest rates in India..and he comfortably excluded admin charges like registration, brokerage etc
Edit (thanks for the explainer), the loan is staggered and thus low interest payout, essentially you are making money due to you getting loan at 8% and essentially lending it to the builder who would have otherwise gotten it at 18%, thus upfronting risk for delay/no completion on builder's behalf ------------------------------ The ₹100 at 6% inflation becomes ₹126 (selling price of house after 4 years), you put in ₹15 as equity/down payment/investment, got ₹85 financed from bank at 8%, your due to bank becomes ₹115 after 4 years. Thus after 4 years when you sell the house for ₹126, pay ₹115 from this amount(due to bank), you are only left with ₹11. On your investment of ₹15 , that is a loss of ₹4. You can not make money unless the property appreciates faster than interest rate.
I am a small builder started construction in 2022. The numbers he told like 20% for land acquisition, 45% for operations exactly matches to my current projects, and cost control techniques he is suggesting are really key for any project
I am working as a Real Estate Development consultant in Dubai and comparing these numbers with Dubai market are so similar. The cashflow and development timeline is the real game changer in this industry. Which he obviously did not explain clearly. If anyone of you in the comment section might be interested in starting your own development in Dubai Real Estate Market, Do reach out !
Real estate is totally unpredictable. So much construction and ready to occupy property coming in next 2 years. No end users will be there to buy your inflated houses. Around 50k to 1L flats will be available in next 5 years, who will buy at inflated price.
It's not an open market. With fully constructed property, there would be aloy of cash demand. Even now property dealers will say this is the last unit and we need 40% cash. Also rates whe one sells is lower than what one buys for.
Interesting breakdown! Following along, I calculated that after 3 years with a 6% annual appreciation, the house price 100 would be around Rs. 124. However, with a 9% loan interest, the Rs.85 loan would grow to Rs. 114.67. Factor in a 1.5% selling cost (roughly Rs. 1.86), and the net profit looks to be around Rs. 7.43. But that's before considering the Rs. 15 down payment. Unfortunately, with all the factors included, it seems this scenario leads to a net loss of Rs. 7.57 after 3 years.
Boss it's staggered payment.. I am in the same position un underconstruction property so it adds up.. you don't need to pay for 85.. initially emis could be as low as 500rs
Shantanu the biggest take away from this podcast , keep in touch with this Man … Keep An Eye on his IPO . Young Dynamic Entrepreneur , it will be worth taking a bet on his vision . Thank You Team Barber Shop , Maza Aali .
To all the people who are saying they’re now convinced to buy a house as an investment, remember this - Buying house as “investment” through leverage is a HUGE risk. You’ll get wiped out if you get it wrong. It’s as risky as playing with options which is also a leveraged instrument
I vouch for buying a house as an investment, reasons and sop: 1) Risk can be mitigated with proper due diligence. In just 6 months time, real estate knowledge can be acquired. Learning before investing reduces risk. 2) Real estate is tangible assets unlike equity. Most of the time it has time correction rarely price correction. 3) Entry time in real estate is critical. Trying not to be last in the chain of buyers in a bull Run. 4) Humans need a house as a shelter and will always need it. Continuous and sustainable demand.
43:00 I agree that EMIs lead to asset creation but if you lose your job, the bank will foreclose on your property, just like how you will thrown out of the rental for nonpayment of rent.
Very bad of using Prachi name who is CBSE topper for your razor brand. Trolls already affect her mental health and your company, promoting you razor in the disguise of support to her . Yaaakkkk thu
Buying house as “investment” through leverage is a HUGE risk. You’ll get wiped out if you get it wrong. It’s as risky as playing with options which is also a leveraged instrument
44:12 you are right. Renting and investing in Nifty 50 is better in the time frame of 20-30 years going forward. We will never see the real estate jump of 2000's unless, rupee devalues by 10x in that case you would be better off in gold/equity markets.
Median cost of home ownership in US (states like Texas, North Carolina) is 4 to 5x In India (which you didn't mention) cities like Gurgaon, Bengaluru, Hyderabad have a ratio of 12x to 15x Cost to buy is extremely high
Not making sense at all I hope no guy invest in property listening to this crap Only buying land makes sense not apartments flats Liquidity big issue Buying and selling price differ like crazy
By data, last 10 year average real estate returns is 3-4% even in the era of robust development. How did he take 7% return? Just calculate the math by 3-4%.
The calculations he mentioned on making profits in real estate by leveraging money sounds good in theory only. But actually thinking about it, the end user has to bear a lot more risk and the only way the user will make money is if everything works out the way it was planned. I feel like that's too many variables to depend on. Hence a poor strategy.
Maybe, maybe not A few Loft properties coming up in Hyderabad, i am not sure 1-2 or many, see a lot of advertisements around. And am seeing Ajitesh on few podcasts off late. But anyways, everything is business, so cannot complain! Amazing insight though
Let's debunk his stupid logic at 46:00 House purchased at 100 with 15 as down payment and rest as loan. At first, person will pay stamp duty, registration, and other fees including paperwork and lawyer that will be 5-7% depending on the state which in this case would make actual buying price as 105. Four years later at 6% inflation it will be 126 which you have purchased at 105. Interest at 8.5% (average home loan rate) for first four years will make it up 15 which leaves 6 lakh profit where you will pay 20% taxes of LTCG on profit. Therefore net profit will be 4.8 lakhs after investing 15 lakhs for 4 years where returns will be 7.1%
Edit: Aah okay good you added explainer disclaimer at 47:52 . So this works out only in case of new project and primary investing in the construction phase. The risk factor on builder is important consideration then... --- 45:00 Not getting how 15 comes out to be the interest component on 85 for 4 years... Is it because how EMI or the said staggered interest works? Laying it down: 100 is original cost, 15 equity 85 loan leverage Assumed 6.5% inflation comparable capital gains & 4 year timeframe, house value is now 130.. Principle is 85, so shouldn't interest on 85 at say 8% for 4 years be around 35ish and not 15 as claimed..? This 15-35 delta changes IRR from 18% to nearly null... Would be good to know what am I not getting here...
It is 15 because banks don’t disburse all 85 at once, loan money is disbursed based on construction progress. Assume bank will disburse 40 1st year, another 20 2nd year, another 20 3rd year and another 5 around 4th year. I am not saying it’s exactly 15, am assuming it should not cross 20 for sure, you can check more, may be it’s 15 or less.
This all is given that you sell the house in 4 years. I’m not sure if people are buying a primary house with the mindset of selling it in short term. This only makes sense if you’re trying to invest.
that applies to the loan the developer takes. But for the investor, the 100 Rupees is an upfront investment. Interest cost from day one. Even if we take staggered payments into account, the roe is nowhere near what is mentioned. Unless I've missed something and messed it up.
@@rajivkallianpur5106 There's an attached note in description, have a look. They are indeed talking only about primary investment where payment cycles are staggered based on milestones which is why this math works. It's only for that niche category of early pre-deveopment investments, not otherwise for end use investment.
at 43:00 he says you pay 1L rs rent. how many people pay 1L rs in rent vs 1.5L rs in loan installment ? his calculations are based off of that assumption which itself is not right for many. people pay rs 45K for rent on a 3bhk. but if they have to buy it in a metro, cost is 1.5-2CR. making loan installment 3 times that of rent.
Shantanu please bring a few holiday specials like u did with tOSHAN. was going through that interview again. Stumbled upon your holiday special. Great work. keep Going. Feels good when we see snippets from ur personal hangout. Raw conversations. please like if anyone who is an early subscriber.
Super episode. So informative and happy to know the new approach taken by the developer and his sincere effort to scale it and such an innovative and empathetic way of looking at one's product and service development, solving age old problems of the industry. Kudos and thanks team Barber shop
@ Shantanu and the Barbershop team - Yet to watch - However we are seeing these guests repetitive with most of the leading content creators Ajitesh was with Raj Shamani a couple of weeks ago - With all due respect however A Couple of months ago Radhika Gupta and Palki Sharma was all over the place - So does with Mr. Sanjeev Bikhchandani etc. I have also commented on Figuring out's podcast since Raj has been inviting Tapasee Pannu, Kriti Sanon, Manoj Vajpayee, Vidya Balan and recently Parineeti Chopra ahead of their upcoming films or show on OTT The point I made with Raj was that we surely have some Entrepreneurial take aways from Entertainment industry people however doing it just ahead of their upcoming projects is a silent marketing and it's okay if Raj wants to do it only if he says so upfront coz that's not what he has set out to do and there are enough of Kapil Sharma's and Reality Shows and News cum Reality Shows cum Entertainment stuff out there in the market It's just that we are losing the essence thinking is this happening because these people are readily available or you have some filtering criteria that also suit to your core mission to why you started this in the first place? Mind you it's just a mere question arises in my mind, I do have a strong objection in my mind and I can only request if this looks fair and do not wish to thump my thought process on you all who are really making characteristics of Entrepreneurship readily available for us? Kindly consider my thought process - There may be more like me ? Regards Nishant Awale
Bro hosts are not doing charity. They’ve to pay bills too !! Time is money . Guests are giving time and getting their stuff promoted which Will make them money
@@alok3009- Mate - The theory of commercial pressure forces you to take decisions aligned to it is a reasonably predictable argument - Point I made here is that's not what Shantanu and his team set out to achieve in the first place - Shantanu has mentioned several times that once you achieve something, you become unapproachable and that's what they want to avoid - In other words they want to chalk path for small entrepreneur and if that's true then 'Commercial Pressure' kind of fit to all kind of theory that you mentioned should not be any interest to Shantanu and his team If it's mutual convenience than bringing in something unheard of to their audience then even Shanatnu and his team would agree it's a slight deviation from their core value Hope you would agree...
I’ve seen a lot of people claiming to be gurus of real estate on social media. But man oh man - this guy has the brain of a supercomputer and he understands his business like a mother understand her child
You don't have to pay the entire amount upfront, it is usually construction linked plan, first 20% goes from buyer pocket and subsequent demands are paid by the bank
Shantanu I used to think that you're a good guy, but your company did really bad by using Prachi's name, you knew what you were doing. Your company is going to pay someday for this.
Calculation of returns on purchase of under construction property is incorrect at 47:20. When paying back the loan to the bank, you are also paying part of the principal. So the total capital put in to purchase the house is not 15. It is 15, plus the staggered capital payment. Under construction properties only make sense if cost appreciation is much more than the loan interest rates. Edit: above statement is incorrect. The loan is not disbursed immediately but is also staggered, hence the calculations are correct.
Absolutely..even I was about to say the same thing.. In a away it's a conflict of interest for builders to promote leverage ..if there is more leverage, the whole ecosystem is greedy..if leverage tightens , rates become more realistic
@@MrPakure In that case, the interest paid would be much higher. At 8.5%, interest on 4 year would be 29, and the discounted value of the interest would be even higher.
@meetsinghal7131 payment is construction linked, especially in hyderabad, it's like 10% to 15% per stage.. so only interest is paid. Full EMI with principal only gets paid after handover. Anyone thinking of selling, will take preEMI option and not Full EMI option during construction
@@MrPakure it doesn't matter whether it is pre EMI or full EMI. Even in pre EMI, at 8.5%, the interest you will pay is 0.72*4 = 29. Total money paid at possession = 15 (Downpayment) + 29 (Interest) + 85 (Principal) = 129. Selling Price = 128 You will actually make a loss of 1.
Really insightful discussion on the real estate industry, got to learn a lot about the nitty gritties of the business. Ajitesh seems to be a really smart, new age entrepreneur, someone who's trying to revolutionalise an industry filled with incumbent players and old-school way of doing things. Focus on product development and innovation, convenience and consumer satisfaction in a space like real estate is very refreshing to hear about. Thank you Shantanu for inviting such great guests. Hoping to see ASBL and BSC both grow multifold in the years to come!
He doesn't speak sense ....steel initially went up 100% post COVID ..now it's at 50%.. that's more than 15% cagr at the least ... Cement has gone up by 35%=..a minimum of 10% cagr...its not just about finance... Compliance charges have gone up 100% post covid ..
SHANTANU, Your discussion with Ajitesh dwelled into Sector Specific age old Problems & Innovative Solutions. On the same intensions & interest to mitigate risk for buyers, I have workable & profitable win x win ideas . Pl provide opportunity for a meeting. I am in staying in Pune. Thanks
Totally wrong calculation on home purchase example. 85 debt + 15 equity and with assumption of house price growing of 6% (inflation). I have not seen any getting housing loan below 6%. If you assume 6% loan rate, you will get 6% growth on your equity 15 if house price grows at 6%. Tax advantage also gets negate as rent have the same advantage.
Also can someone please explain/justify How is buying a home(a one that you'd live in) an asset? You're basically spending a huge amount of money to buy a house to live in it, thinking that's an asset. But you literally can't sell the only house you're living in. Also it's not very easy(mentally and financially) to keep selling and buying houses as per your needs at different ages. Yes the 4cr house that you bought is for 8cr now, but what? Are you gonna sell it? You'll have a hard time finding a customer. Not only that but you also have to realise that you need another house to live in since you sold this one. What makes you think the new house will be cheaper? Prolly have to spend those 8cr anyway. So what are you building exactly?
Hyderabad real estate is filled with investors who inflate and exacerbate the prices by 4x. It's not worth buying a flat in Hyderabad. It's not worth investing in Flat/apartment in Hyderabad. Better to look for Tier - 2 cities like Kakinada, Rajahmundry and buy a piece.
Thik heee.remove or replace bgs.It's not the editor job.Shantanu is a guy who is one made person.He might be busy not to disrespect or misguide you.If he chosen you please be wise to this man.
Superb overview of the industry. Such deep knowledge and articulation of the subject is seldom found in real estate sector. My takeaways - innovation, product research, digitization and foremost being sensitive towards fulfilling the importance of housing need of a person. Request to keep posting some more similar Real Estate Industry related videos.
If the house market is going to correct itself (like you said during the podcast at 1:04:00 onwards), since the ratio was disturbed during the pandemic, won't it mean that people buying now are purchasing houses at inflated prices and there is no hope for that to appreciate in the near future?
The calculation of returns on property is absolutely wrong. How will interest payments made will not form part of calculation. If we invest that money elsewhere wouldn't we earn higher returns than what we get after selling the house.
Really good to hear Real Estate, being one of the highest employers of the country untouched by technology, using AI and doing R&D as a product which is known to be the most emotional aspect and decision of a middle class person in a metropolitan. 🥂 I work in Real Estate in Sales & Marketing in NCR region with a reputed developer and I think a lot of tech can also be enabled into sales process, CRM & procurement.
Initial EMIs are loaded with interest, principal repayment is minimal. So yes some part of 4 years worth of EMIs would be equity, but fair to assume to count it as interest for broad calculations.
@ShubhamKumarpro1 when you take a loan for an under construction phase, you can opt to pay full EMI for the loan or only pay interest for the amount of loan disbursed, which is disbursed in stages, as per construction. So for a 80 lakh loan, say 15% is disbursed per each construction stage, you pay interest only for the amount say, 10k for 15 lakhs and it goes up as more loan is disbursed. There is no principal paid in preEMI scheme until handover and then full EMI kicks in
I did the math. Doesn't work out. He has forgotten registration duty which is a sunk cost and the fact that longer the tenure, higher the interest portion in emi. Overall the investment in flat doesn't work out unless one is registering a 15%+ gains per year
1. Many Indians believe that real estate prices cannot go down. This assumption was proven wrong in the USA in 2008-09 and is currently happening in China. Prices is a function of supply and demand. If supply > demand, prices will drop. It's a matter of economics, not faith. 2. There are costs of holding real estate as an asset (compared to stocks, mutual funds, etc.), such as taxes, maintenance, repair, etc. After all of these costs, if return on investment < inflation (say 7%), then it makes no sense to invest in real estate. Of course, owning a home may still make sense for one's own consumption. 3. We evaluate stock prices using metrics such as price/earnings ration. Similarly, real estate prices can be evaluated using price/rent ratio. If this ratio is lower than stocks, then it makes more sense to invest in stocks or mutual funds than in real estate.
All those prices in the US have tripled from the highest before they collapsed so if you look over 100 year period it’s a 45° line of appreciation… On a long-term the price is never collapsed in a great me
I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
Hyderabad real estate is on a brink of collapse. Many people booked under construction flats and supply is very high. Now the investors are unable to find end users and exit their investment. The interviewer forgot to ask about supply and demand of inventory.
Everything is marketing
Pp
Many Hyderabad people feel they will overtake Bangalore in IT sector. So, the supply is based on that. Let us see…!!!!
Cause this podcast is sponsored by the builders 😂
Good, real estate is unaffordable for 90% people
House for own consumption ✅
Investment ❌❌
Wrong to assume house prices will matxh inflation in short run
Short run? What about long run?
Wrong to assume 15 interest cost on 85 principal over 4 years too.
I met someone yesterday who was hugely boastful that he invested in 3 RE deal.. 2 residential and 1 commercial property which will take care of his retirement.. half of middle class thinks he is doing super by “investing “ in RE
@@architgemini9411exactly..even I didn't get it...even in simple interest terms it's just 4.5% pa..I nvr saw such low interest rates in India..and he comfortably excluded admin charges like registration, brokerage etc
Edit (thanks for the explainer), the loan is staggered and thus low interest payout, essentially you are making money due to you getting loan at 8% and essentially lending it to the builder who would have otherwise gotten it at 18%, thus upfronting risk for delay/no completion on builder's behalf
------------------------------
The ₹100 at 6% inflation becomes ₹126 (selling price of house after 4 years), you put in ₹15 as equity/down payment/investment, got ₹85 financed from bank at 8%, your due to bank becomes ₹115 after 4 years. Thus after 4 years when you sell the house for ₹126, pay ₹115 from this amount(due to bank), you are only left with ₹11. On your investment of ₹15 , that is a loss of ₹4.
You can not make money unless the property appreciates faster than interest rate.
Shouldn't the EMI paid over the course of 4 years be incorporated in the XIRR calculation?
@@ShubhamKumarpro1u can delay the emi till possession.
1:19:37
I am a small builder started construction in 2022. The numbers he told like 20% for land acquisition, 45% for operations exactly matches to my current projects, and cost control techniques he is suggesting are really key for any project
Getting the capital is the challenge here
@@shivvasampathinteresting perspective bro..good to see Young builders...whr do u build ? Hyd?
@@narenreddy5647 Banglore
🤔
I am working as a Real Estate Development consultant in Dubai and comparing these numbers with Dubai market are so similar. The cashflow and development timeline is the real game changer in this industry.
Which he obviously did not explain clearly.
If anyone of you in the comment section might be interested in starting your own development in Dubai Real Estate Market, Do reach out !
Real estate is totally unpredictable. So much construction and ready to occupy property coming in next 2 years. No end users will be there to buy your inflated houses. Around 50k to 1L flats will be available in next 5 years, who will buy at inflated price.
It's not an open market. With fully constructed property, there would be aloy of cash demand. Even now property dealers will say this is the last unit and we need 40% cash.
Also rates whe one sells is lower than what one buys for.
Interesting breakdown! Following along, I calculated that after 3 years with a 6% annual appreciation, the house price 100 would be around Rs. 124. However, with a 9% loan interest, the Rs.85 loan would grow to Rs. 114.67. Factor in a 1.5% selling cost (roughly Rs. 1.86), and the net profit looks to be around Rs. 7.43. But that's before considering the Rs. 15 down payment. Unfortunately, with all the factors included, it seems this scenario leads to a net loss of Rs. 7.57 after 3 years.
Boss it's staggered payment.. I am in the same position un underconstruction property so it adds up.. you don't need to pay for 85.. initially emis could be as low as 500rs
@@subhashreevenkatesh3868u didn't understood the caluclation it seems...check again once.
Shantanu the biggest take away from this podcast , keep in touch with this Man … Keep An Eye on his IPO . Young Dynamic Entrepreneur , it will be worth taking a bet on his vision . Thank You Team Barber Shop , Maza Aali .
Kya mazaa aali ....uske 80% inventory unsold hai bhayya ...hum hyderabad se hai
To all the people who are saying they’re now convinced to buy a house as an investment, remember this - Buying house as “investment” through leverage is a HUGE risk. You’ll get wiped out if you get it wrong. It’s as risky as playing with options which is also a leveraged instrument
I vouch for buying a house as an investment, reasons and sop:
1) Risk can be mitigated with proper due diligence. In just 6 months time, real estate knowledge can be acquired. Learning before investing reduces risk.
2) Real estate is tangible assets unlike equity. Most of the time it has time correction rarely price correction.
3) Entry time in real estate is critical. Trying not to be last in the chain of buyers in a bull Run.
4) Humans need a house as a shelter and will always need it. Continuous and sustainable demand.
MS Dhoni was the brand ambassador for Amrapali Group in Noida & Gaziabad 😝
43:00 I agree that EMIs lead to asset creation but if you lose your job, the bank will foreclose on your property, just like how you will thrown out of the rental for nonpayment of rent.
Very bad of using Prachi name who is CBSE topper for your razor brand. Trolls already affect her mental health and your company, promoting you razor in the disguise of support to her . Yaaakkkk thu
Amazed by the guest! he really did convince me to buy a house as an investment !
Buying house as “investment” through leverage is a HUGE risk. You’ll get wiped out if you get it wrong. It’s as risky as playing with options which is also a leveraged instrument
44:12 you are right. Renting and investing in Nifty 50 is better in the time frame of 20-30 years going forward. We will never see the real estate jump of 2000's unless, rupee devalues by 10x in that case you would be better off in gold/equity markets.
Median cost of home ownership in US (states like Texas, North Carolina) is 4 to 5x
In India (which you didn't mention) cities like Gurgaon, Bengaluru, Hyderabad have a ratio of 12x to 15x
Cost to buy is extremely high
Not making sense at all
I hope no guy invest in property listening to this crap
Only buying land makes sense not apartments flats
Liquidity big issue
Buying and selling price differ like crazy
By data, last 10 year average real estate returns is 3-4% even in the era of robust development. How did he take 7% return? Just calculate the math by 3-4%.
Is the price appreciation part of the return?
The interviewer acted dumb .. in order to elevate the guest.. asked carefully selected topics and left out all topics where the end user is exploited
The calculations he mentioned on making profits in real estate by leveraging money sounds good in theory only. But actually thinking about it, the end user has to bear a lot more risk and the only way the user will make money is if everything works out the way it was planned. I feel like that's too many variables to depend on. Hence a poor strategy.
The basic assumption that house prices will compound at 6-7% per year- needs to be tested based on locality, entry price etc.
Thank you for this podcast, really appreciated for bringing person from real estate industry
Again a paid content. At least give the disclaimer
Nope😅
Please do not eat in between the podcast as it distracts us. Thank you.
is it paid podcast ??🤔🤔🤔
I don't think so😅
Maybe, maybe not
A few Loft properties coming up in Hyderabad, i am not sure 1-2 or many, see a lot of advertisements around.
And am seeing Ajitesh on few podcasts off late.
But anyways, everything is business, so cannot complain!
Amazing insight though
Buying land requires black money. And the real estate price rise is due to black money.
Thank you Shantanu. This is how business interviews should look like, I was expecting a little more deep insight of the sector.
Let's debunk his stupid logic at 46:00
House purchased at 100 with 15 as down payment and rest as loan.
At first, person will pay stamp duty, registration, and other fees including paperwork and lawyer that will be 5-7% depending on the state which in this case would make actual buying price as 105.
Four years later at 6% inflation it will be 126 which you have purchased at 105.
Interest at 8.5% (average home loan rate) for first four years will make it up 15 which leaves 6 lakh profit where you will pay 20% taxes of LTCG on profit.
Therefore net profit will be 4.8 lakhs after investing 15 lakhs for 4 years where returns will be 7.1%
Hey shanatanu
I am a fan of your content but the recent ad campaign by your team was just disgusting and disrespectful!!!
May you never be bullied for using razors and other c class items of Bombay shaving company
Edit: Aah okay good you added explainer disclaimer at 47:52 . So this works out only in case of new project and primary investing in the construction phase. The risk factor on builder is important consideration then...
---
45:00 Not getting how 15 comes out to be the interest component on 85 for 4 years... Is it because how EMI or the said staggered interest works?
Laying it down: 100 is original cost, 15 equity 85 loan leverage
Assumed 6.5% inflation comparable capital gains & 4 year timeframe, house value is now 130..
Principle is 85, so shouldn't interest on 85 at say 8% for 4 years be around 35ish and not 15 as claimed..?
This 15-35 delta changes IRR from 18% to nearly null...
Would be good to know what am I not getting here...
It is 15 because banks don’t disburse all 85 at once, loan money is disbursed based on construction progress. Assume bank will disburse 40 1st year, another 20 2nd year, another 20 3rd year and another 5 around 4th year.
I am not saying it’s exactly 15, am assuming it should not cross 20 for sure, you can check more, may be it’s 15 or less.
This all is given that you sell the house in 4 years. I’m not sure if people are buying a primary house with the mindset of selling it in short term. This only makes sense if you’re trying to invest.
That's exactly my thoughts. Error in calculation here. For the numbers given you barely make enough to cover FD interest, forget risk premium
that applies to the loan the developer takes. But for the investor, the 100 Rupees is an upfront investment. Interest cost from day one. Even if we take staggered payments into account, the roe is nowhere near what is mentioned. Unless I've missed something and messed it up.
@@rajivkallianpur5106 There's an attached note in description, have a look. They are indeed talking only about primary investment where payment cycles are staggered based on milestones which is why this math works. It's only for that niche category of early pre-deveopment investments, not otherwise for end use investment.
I wish i could have worked with ASBL...I would have felt like worthy of my 25 years
at 43:00 he says you pay 1L rs rent. how many people pay 1L rs in rent vs 1.5L rs in loan installment ? his calculations are based off of that assumption which itself is not right for many. people pay rs 45K for rent on a 3bhk. but if they have to buy it in a metro, cost is 1.5-2CR. making loan installment 3 times that of rent.
rent is now easy for lot of people, sometime landlord suddenly sell the house, or makes ppl change the ouse in every 11 months
Hyderabad is full of disgusting pigeon holes houses built by flattening beautiful landscape with no sensitivity to design or environment
Shantanu deshpande ko bohot gaaliya pad rhi aaj, gaali
Khaane wala kaam bhi kiya hai
What an eye opener... This man has a vision and i wish him all the very best for the future.
This young developer from H’Bad should become a housing minister and stream line variya lagislations comprehensively 😊
Shantanu please bring a few holiday specials like u did with tOSHAN. was going through that interview again. Stumbled upon your holiday special. Great work. keep Going. Feels good when we see snippets from ur personal hangout. Raw conversations.
please like if anyone who is an early subscriber.
Housing cannot just be a commodity
HE MAKES ANY WHere BETWEEN 200 % + ON EACH PROJECT...but he has unsold inventory of 80%
Super episode. So informative and happy to know the new approach taken by the developer and his sincere effort to scale it and such an innovative and empathetic way of looking at one's product and service development, solving age old problems of the industry. Kudos and thanks team Barber shop
@ Shantanu and the Barbershop team - Yet to watch - However we are seeing these guests repetitive with most of the leading content creators
Ajitesh was with Raj Shamani a couple of weeks ago - With all due respect however A Couple of months ago Radhika Gupta and Palki Sharma was all over the place - So does with Mr. Sanjeev Bikhchandani etc.
I have also commented on Figuring out's podcast since Raj has been inviting Tapasee Pannu, Kriti Sanon, Manoj Vajpayee, Vidya Balan and recently Parineeti Chopra ahead of their upcoming films or show on OTT
The point I made with Raj was that we surely have some Entrepreneurial take aways from Entertainment industry people however doing it just ahead of their upcoming projects is a silent marketing and it's okay if Raj wants to do it only if he says so upfront coz that's not what he has set out to do and there are enough of Kapil Sharma's and Reality Shows and News cum Reality Shows cum Entertainment stuff out there in the market
It's just that we are losing the essence thinking is this happening because these people are readily available or you have some filtering criteria that also suit to your core mission to why you started this in the first place?
Mind you it's just a mere question arises in my mind, I do have a strong objection in my mind and I can only request if this looks fair and do not wish to thump my thought process on you all who are really making characteristics of Entrepreneurship readily available for us?
Kindly consider my thought process - There may be more like me ?
Regards
Nishant Awale
Bro hosts are not doing charity. They’ve to pay bills too !! Time is money . Guests are giving time and getting their stuff promoted which Will make them money
@@alok3009- Mate - The theory of commercial pressure forces you to take decisions aligned to it is a reasonably predictable argument - Point I made here is that's not what Shantanu and his team set out to achieve in the first place - Shantanu has mentioned several times that once you achieve something, you become unapproachable and that's what they want to avoid - In other words they want to chalk path for small entrepreneur and if that's true then 'Commercial Pressure' kind of fit to all kind of theory that you mentioned should not be any interest to Shantanu and his team
If it's mutual convenience than bringing in something unheard of to their audience then even Shanatnu and his team would agree it's a slight deviation from their core value
Hope you would agree...
I’ve seen a lot of people claiming to be gurus of real estate on social media. But man oh man - this guy has the brain of a supercomputer and he understands his business like a mother understand her child
he has unsold inventory of 80% ....😁
@@manchimaargam where did you read this, do you have any data/ links
Takulu Barber owned the real estate agent
I haven't seen a developer so emphatic to customers
46:05 Rs. 15 of interest on 85 principal for 4 years, Who is giving you loan at 4% sir ?
You don't have to pay the entire amount upfront, it is usually construction linked plan, first 20% goes from buyer pocket and subsequent demands are paid by the bank
Exactly in India we get home loan at 7.5% minimum and how many people take 5 year loans avg would be 20 30 year loan
Shantanu I used to think that you're a good guy, but your company did really bad by using Prachi's name, you knew what you were doing. Your company is going to pay someday for this.
Calculation of returns on purchase of under construction property is incorrect at 47:20. When paying back the loan to the bank, you are also paying part of the principal. So the total capital put in to purchase the house is not 15. It is 15, plus the staggered capital payment. Under construction properties only make sense if cost appreciation is much more than the loan interest rates.
Edit: above statement is incorrect. The loan is not disbursed immediately but is also staggered, hence the calculations are correct.
Absolutely..even I was about to say the same thing..
In a away it's a conflict of interest for builders to promote leverage ..if there is more leverage, the whole ecosystem is greedy..if leverage tightens , rates become more realistic
Read about Pre emi, during construction.. no principal paid, only interest is paid on disbursed loan in tranches
@@MrPakure In that case, the interest paid would be much higher. At 8.5%, interest on 4 year would be 29, and the discounted value of the interest would be even higher.
@meetsinghal7131 payment is construction linked, especially in hyderabad, it's like 10% to 15% per stage.. so only interest is paid. Full EMI with principal only gets paid after handover. Anyone thinking of selling, will take preEMI option and not Full EMI option during construction
@@MrPakure it doesn't matter whether it is pre EMI or full EMI. Even in pre EMI, at 8.5%, the interest you will pay is 0.72*4 = 29.
Total money paid at possession = 15 (Downpayment) + 29 (Interest) + 85 (Principal) = 129.
Selling Price = 128
You will actually make a loss of 1.
Really insightful discussion on the real estate industry, got to learn a lot about the nitty gritties of the business.
Ajitesh seems to be a really smart, new age entrepreneur, someone who's trying to revolutionalise an industry filled with incumbent players and old-school way of doing things.
Focus on product development and innovation, convenience and consumer satisfaction in a space like real estate is very refreshing to hear about.
Thank you Shantanu for inviting such great guests. Hoping to see ASBL and BSC both grow multifold in the years to come!
sum up this in few lines
He doesn't speak sense ....steel initially went up 100% post COVID ..now it's at 50%.. that's more than 15% cagr at the least ...
Cement has gone up by 35%=..a minimum of 10% cagr...its not just about finance...
Compliance charges have gone up 100% post covid ..
A smart salesperson meets a naive customer 😝
SHANTANU, Your discussion with Ajitesh dwelled into Sector Specific age old Problems & Innovative Solutions. On the same intensions & interest to mitigate risk for buyers, I have workable & profitable win x win ideas . Pl provide opportunity for a meeting. I am in staying in Pune.
Thanks
Maal nahi bika toe personality banakar blah blah kar lo
Totally wrong calculation on home purchase example. 85 debt + 15 equity and with assumption of house price growing of 6% (inflation). I have not seen any getting housing loan below 6%. If you assume 6% loan rate, you will get 6% growth on your equity 15 if house price grows at 6%. Tax advantage also gets negate as rent have the same advantage.
100 will become 130 in 4 years? That too in an, under construction property?
Besides said point, no rental income!
Good luck
Also can someone please explain/justify
How is buying a home(a one that you'd live in) an asset?
You're basically spending a huge amount of money to buy a house to live in it, thinking that's an asset. But you literally can't sell the only house you're living in. Also it's not very easy(mentally and financially) to keep selling and buying houses as per your needs at different ages. Yes the 4cr house that you bought is for 8cr now, but what? Are you gonna sell it? You'll have a hard time finding a customer. Not only that but you also have to realise that you need another house to live in since you sold this one. What makes you think the new house will be cheaper? Prolly have to spend those 8cr anyway. So what are you building exactly?
Hyderabad real estate is filled with investors who inflate and exacerbate the prices by 4x. It's not worth buying a flat in Hyderabad. It's not worth investing in Flat/apartment in Hyderabad. Better to look for Tier - 2 cities like Kakinada, Rajahmundry and buy a piece.
The time he said he gets inspiration from Modiji!!
I stopped.
57:44 FACT CHECK Nizam never owned the Kohinoor, He used Jack diamond as a paper weight.
Insightful!
Thik heee.remove or replace bgs.It's not the editor job.Shantanu is a guy who is one made person.He might be busy not to disrespect or misguide you.If he chosen you please be wise to this man.
Superb overview of the industry. Such deep knowledge and articulation of the subject is seldom found in real estate sector. My takeaways - innovation, product research, digitization and foremost being sensitive towards fulfilling the importance of housing need of a person.
Request to keep posting some more similar Real Estate Industry related videos.
If the house market is going to correct itself (like you said during the podcast at 1:04:00 onwards), since the ratio was disturbed during the pandemic, won't it mean that people buying now are purchasing houses at inflated prices and there is no hope for that to appreciate in the near future?
Wow, this guy was unassuming in the initial few minutes, after sometime it's like wow. Amazing wealth of information and knowledge.
@shantanu could not find this podcast on Spotify?
I usually listen to them while commuting, it's easier there..
If possible Can you please sync them?
Also additional cost of buying - broker cost , cost transferring in ur name etc????
The calculation of returns on property is absolutely wrong. How will interest payments made will not form part of calculation. If we invest that money elsewhere wouldn't we earn higher returns than what we get after selling the house.
Boss I expected u to have better maths. Interest rates are not 6 % and the house may not appreciate.
Brilliant interview ❤
And 15 rupees interest is too low. It should be 30 rs interest on 85 rs for 4 years given 8-9% interest rate
1:19:36 ?
This is a gem of an episode. Thank you for the episode
Really good to hear Real Estate, being one of the highest employers of the country untouched by technology, using AI and doing R&D as a product which is known to be the most emotional aspect and decision of a middle class person in a metropolitan. 🥂
I work in Real Estate in Sales & Marketing in NCR region with a reputed developer and I think a lot of tech can also be enabled into sales process, CRM & procurement.
Enjoy your videos and learn a lot. California USA
XIRR calculation is wrong. Wouldn't the EMIs paid over the course of 4 years also be included as equity?
Initial EMIs are loaded with interest, principal repayment is minimal. So yes some part of 4 years worth of EMIs would be equity, but fair to assume to count it as interest for broad calculations.
Read about Pre emi, during construction.. no principal paid, only interest is paid on disbursed loan in tranches
@@MrPakure could you point to some relevant resource?
@@nikunjsj I didn't really get it.
@ShubhamKumarpro1 when you take a loan for an under construction phase, you can opt to pay full EMI for the loan or only pay interest for the amount of loan disbursed, which is disbursed in stages, as per construction. So for a 80 lakh loan, say 15% is disbursed per each construction stage, you pay interest only for the amount say, 10k for 15 lakhs and it goes up as more loan is disbursed. There is no principal paid in preEMI scheme until handover and then full EMI kicks in
I am first
That was a wonderful episode
Bhai tum dadii banane ka saman kab bechte ho.. Jo interview ke liye ata hai ussi ki hazamat bana dalo😂
This was wamazing. Such deep insights and smashing the real estate myths. Every minute was worth it
Informative Session !!
Beautiful podcast 😭
Very good insights from a builder's mind about the entire RE business..good work
hawa hawa
Thanks for calling a Telugu person(Telangana)👍👍👍👍👍👍
amazing
Very informative
Bro anth ga anthe ga ...👌
I did the math. Doesn't work out. He has forgotten registration duty which is a sunk cost and the fact that longer the tenure, higher the interest portion in emi. Overall the investment in flat doesn't work out unless one is registering a 15%+ gains per year
just amazing.
Enriching!
Wow perfecto
1. Many Indians believe that real estate prices cannot go down. This assumption was proven wrong in the USA in 2008-09 and is currently happening in China. Prices is a function of supply and demand. If supply > demand, prices will drop. It's a matter of economics, not faith.
2. There are costs of holding real estate as an asset (compared to stocks, mutual funds, etc.), such as taxes, maintenance, repair, etc. After all of these costs, if return on investment < inflation (say 7%), then it makes no sense to invest in real estate. Of course, owning a home may still make sense for one's own consumption.
3. We evaluate stock prices using metrics such as price/earnings ration. Similarly, real estate prices can be evaluated using price/rent ratio. If this ratio is lower than stocks, then it makes more sense to invest in stocks or mutual funds than in real estate.
All those prices in the US have tripled from the highest before they collapsed so if you look over 100 year period it’s a 45° line of appreciation… On a long-term the price is never collapsed in a great me
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I'm guided by a widely known crypto consultant
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Wonderful souls..may God bless you both..to make a better world..
one of the best podcasts I have ever seen