China is not the real problem. WE are! Consumer debt to income hit 40%, highest since 2008 39%. We are swamped in debt with high inflation and interest rate.
Avoids Discussing the elephant in the room. 30 years ago Chinese was generations behind in technology, infrastructure, manufacturing, etc. China's plans to address this was to seek foreign investment, "partnering" with international companies dangling the prospect of huge Chinese markets, and literally stealing technology via espionage. China inflated their GDP growth using state controlled reporting mechanisms to encourage massive foreign investments. The real estate debt has 3 main components: Chinese businesses, chinese individual investors, and foreign investment. I believe letting the debt default on the Chinese businesses and investors would collapse their economy and possibly the CCP. Therefore, I believe the CCP will allow bankruptcies to occur which substantially keep the Chinese businesses and indivual investors whole, but totally default on foreign debt. Something similar is occurring in their manufacturing with international companies abandoning their investments as they exit the Chinese markets (Tesla being the exception). The Soviet model does not work, and China is revisiting the Soviet conclusion.
Yes, the foreign debt will just be defaulted on and the chinese parts will be kept running as long as possible. Of course, the banks also have foreign debt, EVERYTHING in china seems to have foreign debt. So defaulting on ALL the foreign debt will pretty much destroy the creditrating for easily ten years or longer. Which leaves them with what... generating their money, sure at inflation levels. Which is just as destructive. The biggest worry should be how much foreign traders got stuck with chinese debt. How much of that will have to be written off and what that means for the people who actually deserve that money. How many funds will have to bring out letters off, "Some bad investments lead to us having to write off a huge amount"
Foreign investors in China at present deserve all they get, hopefully it's "their" money. Tesla are between a rock and a hard place I suppose they are making money and they might as well continue until the "wheels" fall off, China has BYD but it's not a patch on Tesla and Tesla has other factories worldwide, China needs Tesla more than Tesla needs China. China's model looks like the Soviet model, more than the Japanese model, but the CCP will spend all its citizens money to stay in power, and it has all the levers to do so!?!
We have been hearing Chinese collapse since 2001and 21yrs later China is within striking distance of America. Check the facts and get real. China is undergoing structural changes, and is still expected to grow at 5 percent which is well above average of major economies bar India. By the way India is less than 20 percent of India economically.
Don't worry about China. When the Jews were crucifying Jesus, the Chinese invented Paper money. I think they know what they are doing. Since their money is toilet paper, they will just ditch the Mao RMB note, and come out with the Xi Jinping note. Maybe they will blame everything on Mao? Maybe they will blame everything on the evil capitalist system? Then employ the rioting masses in the army to attack Taiwan? You see the Communists always thought that money was a 'means to an end'. Because look around China: All the skyscrapers, and freeways, and roads, and bridges, have been built. This is reality. Who cares about anything else, and especially maintaining the Western Monetary system of investment. Furthermore: The Chinese Government has just about every dollar ever given them by the west. They simply printed RMB to give their people. These dollars will come back to inflate America into an early grave, when the Chinese flood the market with them, along with their treasury bills.
Yes in the West eyes China's economy is collapseing every year, But yet in reality China is going up over Japan and now over Europa and it's going to over the USA so it's really funny you Westerners! In actually your Short culture history of the Westerner makes you never understand China😂
Autocracy along with inability to lose face is what is causing the downturn. Putting off corrective actions at the micro and macro levels due these issues is allowing the chickens to come home to roost all at once. Just like Mao, Xi's propensity for dictatorship will lead to China's downfall unless descenting voices can be allowed to correct the trajectory.
I listen to WSJ in 2012 and didn’t invest in China’s real estate. I missed the whole boat. WSJ always talk about problems, but never the solutions. Chinese government always come up with the right solutions. I won’t trust anyone who doesn’t read Chinese.
Unfortunately they over relied and banked on property. Sales and prices are down dramatically, even more than official figures suggest. Listings are super high and confidence at all time lows. Inventory of developers are also a problem ,causing a serious cash crunch for heavily indebted dev. This also affects a myriad of industries related to housing - furniture , electronics, renovations, housing materials etc. As households struggle to pay mortgages and experience massive wealth destruction tied to home values , consumption will drop. Local govt income will fall due to far less land sales. As dev defaults rises, potential buyers will avoid developments of future homes. I think it is multi year problem.
It was actually the government that satrted it all the trouble with Evergrande and the real state sector. If in the US there are sectors/corporations too big to fail, that's not the case with China. When the chinese government saw Evergrande existing with unlimited borrowing, they imposed policies to stop that and they never bailed out Evergrande when it fell as a consequence. This "experts" always get it wrong because they think China will do it the way the west do it. They don't get that the political system China has that they are always vilifying makes them different that they can do things the west can't do or can do but too late.
Why are we so concerned about the failure of China's economy, will the failure of China's economy cause the US economy to fail also or would be really good for US and boost the economy?
Wall-street and China figured out ways to funnel US investment funds into Chinese stocks. Trump tried to stop it , but was unsuccessful. Canada’s largest retirement funds have slowly withdrawn money, but US retirement accounts are still exposed.
It will be very bad for the world economy. It might be as bad or worse than 2008. The US, Canada, and Mexico should fare better than most because they are more integrated now. There will likely be famine in China and possibly North Korea. The potential immigration issues in Asia will make what’s going on in Europe and the US look like child’s play. The US and EU will have even less money support African nations, so I could see famine there as well. Conditions are already so bad in Africa that we have seen multiple coupes and civil wars start again. It could get very very bad… Our generations have never seen Great Depressions and World Wars because the US has been able to hold order with its allies, but this could all change.
I am very glad that you are one of the few westerners who might know about the truth. The US media and politicians have been demonizing China for decades, their views of China are also distorted. I suggest you check out the video clip of Kishore, the ex diplomat of Singapore, he knows both the US and China very well, he has also been invited by business forums and summits in many continents to talk about China and the US, his views are more reliable than any western media.
@@chillxxx241USA had allowed World Bank in 2001 to grant China membership hoping China would either toe its line in regards to foreign/economic/defence policies or would socially/economically/politically collapse, and afterwards pave the way for USA and its willing allies to step in as it happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia and numerous other places in Africa and Latin America. Hopefully USA will miss the chance this time around and let others take care of themselves.
(1) real estate is a good investment only when the time you flip it, someone is there to get it off your hands with a profit for you. (2) to be attractive it has to have local income, not a dead town with no people, no income, no tourists and no sustainable local GDP (3) local government should collect property tax, that money will help the development and infrastructure, in which then to build a livable and vibrant city to attract residents and businesses. (4) Piling up the bricks to build buildings with no local economic development, is nothing more than kids play Lego in an adult version
Just returned from my second trip to China. 2 more to go before the year ends. Was brought to see whatbthe west called a 'ghost town'. The locals explain it's far from that. Too long to describe here but the whole township was designed for civil servants while the government agencies are being relocated to new buildings. Yet to occupy. Meanwhile many are travelling and shopping. Property is only one part of the economy. So is China going bust yesterday? Afterall they have been predicting this annually since more than 15 yrs ago..
Actually, real estate is more than 30% of the economy (Chinese figures, not the West), and the ‘market’ is nothing like the Western model: the CCP own the land and incentives the developers to build and sell the leases, ie, for all intent and purpose and the whole problem is run and owned by the CCP. So it’s nothing like the 2008 crash in the US at all. Add to that the largely ignored fact that China has a LOT less than 1.4 billion people, in fact it is likely to be more like .8 billion. This is on a scale unseen anywhere at any time in human history.
Not really. These predictions of economic woes have gathered momentum in the last three years or so, supported by the economic data coming out of China. No doubt there were earlier predictions but the volume of newsflow has been more recent and data driven. Note also that the public sector has an important role but does not generate revenues - in fact it consumes them.
@@coopoylozenge5964 It gained momentum since the last 5 years due to the increased US government and media disinformation about CHina. The US is bent on kneecapping the rise of CHina because it can't compete with China. The US is actually waging a one-sided cold war against China since the years you noticed the change. The US is bent on protecting its hegemony.
China's economic crisis is the biggest story of the next few years. What about when the Chinese middle class lose their life savings from this insane real estate bubble? Can the CCP maintain control after that?
No one mentioning the fact that many 1st and 2nd tier cities still have restrictions on none residents from buying houses, and also set limits on house price, as low as 50% of nearby 2nd hand housesi it's called "限价，限购"。People have to take part in lottery to have a chance to buy houses, some times 3% buyers got the tickets.
Rent all the houses out cheaply? Maybe demand for houses will shift to other areas as they are for living in, not speculation. Too much focus on housing everywhere, too expensive.
What crisis? Why not talk about your own country, U.S.A?. What a damn thing that you're talking abt China, when U. S is facing the grevious & worst crisis in the c
Oh yeah maybe you should be opining on the economy of the UK. the Chinese economy is gonna grow 3% this year. The uk economy is gonna grow .3%. Except the Chinese have prices dropping due to production efficiencies.
The USA will still have action moves, pretty girls, and football. Everyone else will still lose because of those. Hey, maybe some big guys congressmen? They can show people how congress really works around here. Then call the government soccer.
Can you provide examples of such 'fake news'...? What does 'woke' mean? Here is a definition for you:"Woke is an adjective derived from African-American Vernacular English (AAVE) meaning "alert to racial prejudice and discrimination". Beginning in the 2010s, it came to encompass a broader awareness of social inequalities such as racial justice, sexism and LGBT rights." I don't see what is objectionable about that. What do you find objectionable about that, if you do? What has George Soros got to do with any of this?
What aboutism at its finest. It seems that hordes of people want to enter the US . Who wants to immigrate to China? In fact, people with money want to leave.
0:37: 📉 China's economy is facing serious challenges, including declining manufacturing activities, falling exports, and financial instability. 4:30: 💼 China's real estate sector is experiencing a crisis due to overbuilding and excessive investment, with property prices falling and transactions volumes collapsing. 9:06: 🏢 The Chinese government is taking measures to address the real estate problem, but is cautious about implementing heavy stimulus to avoid further instability in the economy and financial system. 13:09: 📉 China's economic model is facing systemic problems and needs a dramatic overhaul. 17:40: 📉 China's current economic policies and government leadership under Xi Jinping are unlikely to change, leading to potential economic troubles in the future. 22:13: 📉 China's macroeconomic structure and governance are not fit for purpose, making a successful transition to a dynamic sustainable economy unlikely. 26:06: 🌍 The outcome of China's economic power and its impact on global governance remains uncertain, with a weakened China potentially posing a threat in international relations. Recap by Tammy AI
Why is a Economic Decline of a Dictatoship Communist State a "Dissapointment" for this Podcast "Free Expression"?? Isn't an economic Decline of such state Good for US all!??
china has been trying to avoid turning into a consumer based economy like the US and Europe. logic is simple. if you consume way more than you produce. debt is inevitable. and for this to be sustainable. Bullying weaker countries to steal others resources and exploit their cheap labor also become inevitable
A few million out of job , same as every country more or less. It wii survive like every other countries in this present situations and it will change for the better, expanding the far away villages, etc....... it is a new upgrade
I live in a country that loves taxes, invented VAT, etc., but at least I see where the taxes are going (roughly), and for pension and health care the tax money is directly allocated to these. The fiscal system in China is maddening, so much is based on "land sale auctions", it's totally ridiculous.
LOL you must be living in another country, cause Birmingham the 2nd largest city has gone bust with London running out of cash, and had to bring in new taxes called ULEZ. UK govt "clear and transparent" LOL slow down on the kool aid bro. LOL
I would say half of China bubble money that they enjoyed in the past thirty years is financial from the. Too bad Xi Jinping didn’t enough patience to wait to bring down US Dollars; he screwed it up.
There is no connection between Birmingham's bankruptcy and ULEZ.. the Ultra Low Emission Zone in London which aims to reduce the extremely damaging air pollution in London. I agree that the UK government is not clear and transparent. @@tigading2177
Respectfully, you are saying a whole lot of nothing. The dictators invested foolishly. Chinese are great and hard working people. They need a democracy to realize their potential.
If you paid attention to the speech Xi would rejuvenate the economy thru wages Redistribution.. Ask Bidenomics what structural changes have been done besides pumping the dollar which has steered most countries not just Bidens enemies like Saudis to shift to alternatives
Exactly. It is impossible to have a free-market, capitalist economy with a autocratic political system. The USSR has proven that already. Also, was not mentioned in the interview, is the collapse of the globalization which ruled the world in the last 30 years or so. But that's no more. China does not have the customers who bought its cheap products, especially in the face of the US and Western Europe, which are by far the largest consumers on Earth. Every export-based economy will come to collapse at some point as it's dependent on others for its growth. This is also one of the reasons China will never become a rich country.
Chinas economy consists of western mainly American multi national corporations The USA is currently spending two trillion $ in reshoring many of these companies The result will be the crumbling of the Chinese economic foundation Why do people who make these videos don’t mention this important situstiin
Its hard for us average thinkers to try and understand China's current problems . The days of fast economic growth and rising living standards are probably over . According to the CCP this is not necessarily a bad thing . Probably average Chinese people will go back to wearing all military green clothes , wearing the same sort of footwear and indiviualism will disappear.
China is most stable country, far stable than the US. Their government enjoys more than 95% approval from their citizens for years now. It is not China claiming this, it is from Harvard University that does an annual study of China from 2006 to 2019 (cut short by the pandemic). Your idea of their army doing something is another wishful thinking stemming from you constantly being disinformed/misinformed by your MSM.
Good point. The number of imprisonments and disappearances of high-level PLA officials - which is way up - is a sure indicator that Xi is worried about this, too. Indeed a big problem the speaker didn't mention is that Xi has eliminated all top leaders that had enough ability to ever challenge him for leadership. The country is being micromanaged by the B team.
How bad does the US want it to be? 'Cause that's exactly how bad it will get. Imagine the cheek of them!! Actually building railroads and ports in OUR empire!!😅😅
I think China has hit the wall much like Japan did in the 90s. They no longer have a demographic tailwind, they have a demographic headwind due to the pre-one child policy kids hitting retirement and not having enough youth to carry the economy. The oldest "one child" children are now in their mid-40s and entering the post prime period of their careers. Their real estate meltdown will likely take real estate from 1/3 of the economy to less than 1/5 of the economy like the developed world, and it will likely be less than that as the bubble's real estate inventory and the debt to build it is worked off. They will face falling foreign investment and exports due to the CCP's wolf warrior policies and the end of growth. Finally, they are at the stage where easy high return infrastructure investments are over, and a lot of the current Chinese "investments" may never give economic pay back. Take all those issues, and realize that China really needs to transition from an investment based economy to a consumption based economy, and to succeed you have to imagine they will succeed where Japan failed, despite having more problems to face than Japan had.
China was made with euros and dollars, just like Russia. Once these autocratic regimes feel strong enough, they will bite the hands that fed them. They take everything you offer, and steal what you don’t, and they never give a single penny in return.
Consumption based economy has failed in US esp when the source was primarily debts. Investment backed by sound money in a moderately regulated market would be more sustainable as long as wages are in steady growth
@@dancahill9585 Japan wages had been stagnated until very recently which has been fueled by exports. Consumption thru debts scaling without fiscally monetized expansion is called Socialism which basically one day the Government is running out of others people's money.
@@ssuwandi3240 If you think China's economy will be successful on the path it is on, by all means, invest all your money in China, lol. Don't be surprised when you can't get it out due to capital controls. Also don't be surprised if the Chinese company you invest in is cooking its books, because China kicked out a lot of foreign accountants and consultants who wanted the books to reflect the truth.
China’s hyper-shadow banking “system” (if it can be labeled that) has reached its mathematical limit and is imploding. China has NO ‘firewall” risk system to prevent a cascading contagion. The real question is about the degree of Western exposures to pending defaults.
YTD August China runs a 550B$ trade surplus or about 800B$ for the whole year at this rate. This is slight lower than 2022 which was an astounding $850B. So trade surplus China is doing well. There was a housing crash. Tell me one country which has never had one, including the US ? So it does not look dire as all the English papers say.
@@azmodanpc China 2023 is nothing as epic as 2008 US subprime crisis which took down Bear Stern and several banks. The US has been running 22 consecutive years, that's a whole generation, of fiscal deficits to goose the economy.
I'm adding, perhaps having not heard about it yet in the blog, the effect of the real estate collapse ' influence on the BANKING & SHADOW BANKING system. . .certainly catastrophically significant!
I left 14 months ago for Thailand, and relieved I did.
9 years there...left 3 months ago to Vietnam.
But IMF is saying that China's GDP in 2023 will grow +5.4%, indicating a strong post-covid rebound. So who is right about China??
China is not the real problem. WE are! Consumer debt to income hit 40%, highest since 2008 39%. We are swamped in debt with high inflation and interest rate.
Yeah, but we're not going to be invading Taiwan anytime soon.
Nonsense and Rubbish. Fake news. Can be sue for defamatory remarks. Okay
Avoids Discussing the elephant in the room. 30 years ago Chinese was generations behind in technology, infrastructure, manufacturing, etc. China's plans to address this was to seek foreign investment, "partnering" with international companies dangling the prospect of huge Chinese markets, and literally stealing technology via espionage. China inflated their GDP growth using state controlled reporting mechanisms to encourage massive foreign investments. The real estate debt has 3 main components: Chinese businesses, chinese individual investors, and foreign investment. I believe letting the debt default on the Chinese businesses and investors would collapse their economy and possibly the CCP. Therefore, I believe the CCP will allow bankruptcies to occur which substantially keep the Chinese businesses and indivual investors whole, but totally default on foreign debt. Something similar is occurring in their manufacturing with international companies abandoning their investments as they exit the Chinese markets (Tesla being the exception). The Soviet model does not work, and China is revisiting the Soviet conclusion.
Yes, the foreign debt will just be defaulted on and the chinese parts will be kept running as long as possible.
Of course, the banks also have foreign debt, EVERYTHING in china seems to have foreign debt. So defaulting on ALL the foreign debt will pretty much destroy the creditrating for easily ten years or longer. Which leaves them with what... generating their money, sure at inflation levels. Which is just as destructive.
The biggest worry should be how much foreign traders got stuck with chinese debt. How much of that will have to be written off and what that means for the people who actually deserve that money. How many funds will have to bring out letters off, "Some bad investments lead to us having to write off a huge amount"
Foreign investors in China at present deserve all they get, hopefully it's "their" money. Tesla are between a rock and a hard place I suppose they are making money and they might as well continue until the "wheels" fall off, China has BYD but it's not a patch on Tesla and Tesla has other factories worldwide, China needs Tesla more than Tesla needs China. China's model looks like the Soviet model, more than the Japanese model, but the CCP will spend all its citizens money to stay in power, and it has all the levers to do so!?!
We have been hearing Chinese collapse since 2001and 21yrs later China is within striking distance of America. Check the facts and get real. China is undergoing structural changes, and is still expected to grow at 5 percent which is well above average of major economies bar India. By the way India is less than 20 percent of India economically.
Don't worry about China. When the Jews were crucifying Jesus, the Chinese invented Paper money. I think they know what they are doing. Since their money is toilet paper, they will just ditch the Mao RMB note, and come out with the Xi Jinping note. Maybe they will blame everything on Mao? Maybe they will blame everything on the evil capitalist system? Then employ the rioting masses in the army to attack Taiwan? You see the Communists always thought that money was a 'means to an end'. Because look around China: All the skyscrapers, and freeways, and roads, and bridges, have been built. This is reality. Who cares about anything else, and especially maintaining the Western Monetary system of investment. Furthermore: The Chinese Government has just about every dollar ever given them by the west. They simply printed RMB to give their people. These dollars will come back to inflate America into an early grave, when the Chinese flood the market with them, along with their treasury bills.
Yes in the West eyes China's economy is collapseing every year, But yet in reality China is going up over Japan and now over Europa and it's going to over the USA so it's really funny you Westerners! In actually your Short culture history of the Westerner makes you never understand China😂
West: "China will collapse at any moment! " (since 1995 LOL)
Is not has bad as tent city's zombieland third-world country amurdeca 😅😂❤
This channel should have Ray Dalio on the show, to tell us all there are no problems in China and we should invest 😅😂
Ray the Red.
Ray is a joke.
Ray had no clue of CCP.
@@henryshen1156 Ray is clueless? I doubt it!
@@henryshen1156 Ray has no idea about China, financial risk or geopolitics either
.. how about your USA 32 trillion dollar debt...
Right on cue! ALWAYS, there's some butt hurt Bot screaming "But Whatabout America?" lol. SO predictable!
Point of order...it's not how about, it's Whatabout
China's OFFICIAL debt is higher than US.
The world wants dollars so the USA will always be able to run a huge deficit....unlike any other country.
Right additional $1 trillion per annum just to service the debts dor next 10 years.. Inflation adjusted my bumm
Autocracy along with inability to lose face is what is causing the downturn. Putting off corrective actions at the micro and macro levels due these issues is allowing the chickens to come home to roost all at once. Just like Mao, Xi's propensity for dictatorship will lead to China's downfall unless descenting voices can be allowed to correct the trajectory.
Proverbs 12:13
Verse Concepts
An evil man is ensnared by the transgression of his lips,
But the righteous will escape from trouble.
I listen to WSJ in 2012 and didn’t invest in China’s real estate. I missed the whole boat. WSJ always talk about problems, but never the solutions. Chinese government always come up with the right solutions. I won’t trust anyone who doesn’t read Chinese.
Unfortunately they over relied and banked on property. Sales and prices are down dramatically, even more than official figures suggest. Listings are super high and confidence at all time lows. Inventory of developers are also a problem ,causing a serious cash crunch for heavily indebted dev. This also affects a myriad of industries related to housing - furniture , electronics, renovations, housing materials etc. As households struggle to pay mortgages and experience massive wealth destruction tied to home values , consumption will drop. Local govt income will fall due to far less land sales. As dev defaults rises, potential buyers will avoid developments of future homes. I think it is multi year problem.
It was actually the government that satrted it all the trouble with Evergrande and the real state sector. If in the US there are sectors/corporations too big to fail, that's not the case with China. When the chinese government saw Evergrande existing with unlimited borrowing, they imposed policies to stop that and they never bailed out Evergrande when it fell as a consequence.
This "experts" always get it wrong because they think China will do it the way the west do it. They don't get that the political system China has that they are always vilifying makes them different that they can do things the west can't do or can do but too late.
Real estate is deliberately suppressed by the Chinese government
Why are we so concerned about the failure of China's economy, will the failure of China's economy cause the US economy to fail also or would be really good for US and boost the economy?
Wall-street and China figured out ways to funnel US investment funds into Chinese stocks. Trump tried to stop it , but was unsuccessful. Canada’s largest retirement funds have slowly withdrawn money, but US retirement accounts are still exposed.
Made in usa.
It will be very bad for the world economy. It might be as bad or worse than 2008. The US, Canada, and Mexico should fare better than most because they are more integrated now. There will likely be famine in China and possibly North Korea. The potential immigration issues in Asia will make what’s going on in Europe and the US look like child’s play. The US and EU will have even less money support African nations, so I could see famine there as well. Conditions are already so bad in Africa that we have seen multiple coupes and civil wars start again. It could get very very bad… Our generations have never seen Great Depressions and World Wars because the US has been able to hold order with its allies, but this could all change.
I am very glad that you are one of the few westerners who might know about the truth. The US media and politicians have been demonizing China for decades, their views of China are also distorted. I suggest you check out the video clip of Kishore, the ex diplomat of Singapore, he knows both the US and China very well, he has also been invited by business forums and summits in many continents to talk about China and the US, his views are more reliable than any western media.
@@chillxxx241USA had allowed World Bank in 2001 to grant China membership hoping China would either toe its line in regards to foreign/economic/defence policies or would socially/economically/politically collapse, and afterwards pave the way for USA and its willing allies to step in as it happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia and numerous other places in Africa and Latin America. Hopefully USA will miss the chance this time around and let others take care of themselves.
You can’t build anything on a corrupt political social system.
(1) real estate is a good investment only when the time you flip it, someone is there to get it off your hands with a profit for you.
(2) to be attractive it has to have local income, not a dead town with no people, no income, no tourists and no sustainable local GDP
(3) local government should collect property tax, that money will help the development and infrastructure, in which then to build a livable and vibrant city to attract residents and businesses.
(4) Piling up the bricks to build buildings with no local economic development, is nothing more than kids play Lego in an adult version
Just returned from my second trip to China. 2 more to go before the year ends. Was brought to see whatbthe west called a 'ghost town'. The locals explain it's far from that. Too long to describe here but the whole township was designed for civil servants while the government agencies are being relocated to new buildings. Yet to occupy. Meanwhile many are travelling and shopping. Property is only one part of the economy. So is China going bust yesterday? Afterall they have been predicting this annually since more than 15 yrs ago..
Actually, real estate is more than 30% of the economy (Chinese figures, not the West), and the ‘market’ is nothing like the Western model: the CCP own the land and incentives the developers to build and sell the leases, ie, for all intent and purpose and the whole problem is run and owned by the CCP. So it’s nothing like the 2008 crash in the US at all. Add to that the largely ignored fact that China has a LOT less than 1.4 billion people, in fact it is likely to be more like .8 billion. This is on a scale unseen anywhere at any time in human history.
Real Estate is 25 percent plus of core GDP v something like 5/6 percent in The US so it's actually pretty damn important.
Not really. These predictions of economic woes have gathered momentum in the last three years or so, supported by the economic data coming out of China. No doubt there were earlier predictions but the volume of newsflow has been more recent and data driven. Note also that the public sector has an important role but does not generate revenues - in fact it consumes them.
@@coopoylozenge5964 It gained momentum since the last 5 years due to the increased US government and media disinformation about CHina. The US is bent on kneecapping the rise of CHina because it can't compete with China. The US is actually waging a one-sided cold war against China since the years you noticed the change. The US is bent on protecting its hegemony.
How bad is the propaganda from the WSJ ?
They have massively overbuilt the only investment families have. No way to fix….
WSJ takes care of yourself to be ethical media
Can a country have increased economic participation by women, at the same time as bearing two point one children?
Excellent question!!
"Women hold up half the sky " Mao saying ,which allowed China to propell itself to world Power with a moderately wealthy people.
Why does the US and other western nations like Australia where I am, want to maintain business ties with China if China is collapsing?
Because China is not collapsing. The old colonial mindset is wishing China collapses but it is not.
China's economic crisis is the biggest story of the next few years. What about when the Chinese middle class lose their life savings from this insane real estate bubble? Can the CCP maintain control after that?
Would it require repression or intimidation?. . .
No one mentioning the fact that many 1st and 2nd tier cities still have restrictions on none residents from buying houses, and also set limits on house price, as low as 50% of nearby 2nd hand housesi it's called "限价，限购"。People have to take part in lottery to have a chance to buy houses, some times 3% buyers got the tickets.
These two talking heads used "kind of" and "sort of" more rhan rhirty times! Whats that All about?
They are completely detached from the reality and do not have enough definitive answer.
It is not as bad as the illegal immigration and homeless problems in the USA Also, I don't read replies to my comments.
Well, I don't read comments.
Rent all the houses out cheaply? Maybe demand for houses will shift to other areas as they are for living in, not speculation. Too much focus on housing everywhere, too expensive.
There’s enough housing in China to give a family two houses for free. There’s no way cheap rent will solve the issue.
China's GDP growth is forecast to be 5% for 2023 and 4.5% for 2024.
The USA GDP growth is forecast to be 1% for 2023 and 0.5% for 2024.
Will the last person still to believe China's GDP figures please turn out the lights.
It’s easy to get 5% GDP . Any country can have it . Just write down 5% and don’t show how you calculate the figures . It’s been working for China …
@@whilewaitingforthemothersh5366 just like the US printing fake money. enjoy the food stamps when the US gov can't print fake money anymore.
@@whilewaitingforthemothersh5366 By the way, these figures are from the IMF.
The WSJ has become a joke
The host talked too much. You don’t need 60 seconds to ask a question.
Yes, you are right.
Why would you take anything seriously that the WSJ says about China when it is the mouthpiece of US capitalism? Why?
Gosh interview - looooong questions. Just ask and let the guest speak.
I agree with you.
The China crisis growing at 5% according to the IMF.😂
@jckbquck
Yes these people made up their talking point from the propaganda news delivered to their living room.
Imf uses the data a country sents to them are not allowed to use anything else
The IMF, the Iniquitous Manilla Fraudsters, Ex-EU management "propped up" by Russia and China!?!
How bad is it, not as bad as the US
😂😂
What crisis? Why not talk about your own country, U.S.A?. What a damn thing that you're talking abt China, when U. S is facing the grevious & worst crisis in the c
Another Gordon Chang, a comedian
Oh yeah maybe you should be opining on the economy of the UK. the Chinese economy is gonna grow 3% this year. The uk economy is gonna grow .3%. Except the Chinese have prices dropping due to production efficiencies.
The USA will still have action moves, pretty girls, and football. Everyone else will still lose because of those. Hey, maybe some big guys congressmen? They can show people how congress really works around here. Then call the government soccer.
Mainland China has no property tax, which is the main source of revenue for local governments in other countries.
I was wondering about that and the income tax system in general. Is there a provincial income tax?
@@malin5468 When I lived there, no local tax was levied.
All boils down to greed n corruption this is the result come clean n slowly rise up again learn from this painful lesson hopefully
Coming from george soros fake news agency😂
anti semitism?
Can you provide examples of such 'fake news'...? What does 'woke' mean? Here is a definition for you:"Woke is an adjective derived from African-American Vernacular English (AAVE) meaning "alert to racial prejudice and discrimination". Beginning in the 2010s, it came to encompass a broader awareness of social inequalities such as racial justice, sexism and LGBT rights."
I don't see what is objectionable about that. What do you find objectionable about that, if you do?
What has George Soros got to do with any of this?
Just went to China for a month for a multi city tour, restaurants, hotels and trains are full, no sign of slow down.
How about the US crisis? LOL.
Wumao much? What about Winnie the Pooh?
What aboutism at its finest. It seems that hordes of people want to enter the US . Who wants to immigrate to China? In fact, people with money want to leave.
0:37: 📉 China's economy is facing serious challenges, including declining manufacturing activities, falling exports, and financial instability.
4:30: 💼 China's real estate sector is experiencing a crisis due to overbuilding and excessive investment, with property prices falling and transactions volumes collapsing.
9:06: 🏢 The Chinese government is taking measures to address the real estate problem, but is cautious about implementing heavy stimulus to avoid further instability in the economy and financial system.
13:09: 📉 China's economic model is facing systemic problems and needs a dramatic overhaul.
17:40: 📉 China's current economic policies and government leadership under Xi Jinping are unlikely to change, leading to potential economic troubles in the future.
22:13: 📉 China's macroeconomic structure and governance are not fit for purpose, making a successful transition to a dynamic sustainable economy unlikely.
26:06: 🌍 The outcome of China's economic power and its impact on global governance remains uncertain, with a weakened China potentially posing a threat in international relations.
Recap by Tammy AI
So much doubt but China excels
China's belt and road went bust.
@@justmenotyou3151Source trust me bro 😂🤣
@@accountantthe3394 Numerous sources. Can't just stay with one opinion when trying to see what's going on.
@@justmenotyou3151 Feel free to cite said sources, let's review them together
Why is a Economic Decline of a Dictatoship Communist State a "Dissapointment" for this Podcast "Free Expression"?? Isn't an economic Decline of such state Good for US all!??
A new respiratory virus has broken out in recent times in China also.
china has been trying to avoid turning into a consumer based economy like the US and Europe. logic is simple. if you consume way more than you produce. debt is inevitable. and for this to be sustainable. Bullying weaker countries to steal others resources and exploit their cheap labor also become inevitable
Western companies should leave so they do not lose their assets like in russia
A few million out of job , same as every country more or less. It wii survive like every other countries in this present situations and it will change for the better, expanding the far away villages, etc....... it is a new upgrade
I live in a country that loves taxes, invented VAT, etc., but at least I see where the taxes are going (roughly), and for pension and health care the tax money is directly allocated to these. The fiscal system in China is maddening, so much is based on "land sale auctions", it's totally ridiculous.
Go to military industry
LOL you must be living in another country, cause Birmingham the 2nd largest city has gone bust with London running out of cash, and had to bring in new taxes called ULEZ.
UK govt "clear and transparent" LOL slow down on the kool aid bro. LOL
I would say half of China bubble money that they enjoyed in the past thirty years is financial from the. Too bad Xi Jinping didn’t enough patience to wait to bring down US Dollars; he screwed it up.
There is no connection between Birmingham's bankruptcy and ULEZ.. the Ultra Low Emission Zone in London which aims to reduce the extremely damaging air pollution in London. I agree that the UK government is not clear and transparent. @@tigading2177
Which SHIRE do you hail from? Young hobbit?
Respectfully, you are saying a whole lot of nothing. The dictators invested foolishly. Chinese are great and hard working people. They need a democracy to realize their potential.
WSJ still talk about sick people of Asia, referring to Chinese with onset of COVID 2019 ?
Chinese podcast predicts the collapse of Australian economy. Who do I believe??? I am so naïve.
How about fixing the America crisis , Instead of talking about how bad China’s is.
jinping is bringing mao 2.0
China could be on fire and Pooh would be like “all is good nothing to see here, our gdp is up 50 percent this year, the fires is Chinese new year” 😂
You are talking nonsense about things you know nothing about
If you paid attention to the speech Xi would rejuvenate the economy thru wages Redistribution.. Ask Bidenomics what structural changes have been done besides pumping the dollar which has steered most countries not just Bidens enemies like Saudis to shift to alternatives
How bad is it? As bad as the US 😂. Stop lying.
Lets hear some USA crises, one hears that besides homelessness, there's now vehical residency. Look forward. 😊
I hope China remains stable. Good Lord.The alternative is unimaginable
Autocratic governments usually end with a big bang.
Tally Ho !
Housing there? Back to bamboo made homes and wooden homes(sticks, stones and mud bricks,
Should have listened to Confucius. Too late
How can economy grow with a decreasing population ? Given all the other factors of course
It is a contradiction in itself for an autocratic system to have a high degree of economic development.
The US is an autocracy for the rich, China is a Socialist Democracy for the people.
China is neither very socialist nor very democratic.
Exactly. It is impossible to have a free-market, capitalist economy with a autocratic political system. The USSR has proven that already.
Also, was not mentioned in the interview, is the collapse of the globalization which ruled the world in the last 30 years or so. But that's no more. China does not have the customers who bought its cheap products, especially in the face of the US and Western Europe, which are by far the largest consumers on Earth. Every export-based economy will come to collapse at some point as it's dependent on others for its growth. This is also one of the reasons China will never become a rich country.
How? It works for the US.
Are you saying, in last 30-40 years, China is either not autocratic system or they don’t have high degree of economic development?
I like the technical language the guest uses - "oozes excess equity".. My word! and the "interviewer" talks way too much.
The one asking the questions needs to learn to shorten his question length
Chinas economy consists of western mainly American multi national corporations
The USA is currently spending two trillion $ in reshoring many of these companies
The result will be the crumbling of the Chinese economic foundation
Why do people who make these videos don’t mention this important situstiin
Dream on and get real 😅
Its hard for us average thinkers to try and understand China's current problems . The days of fast economic growth and rising living standards are probably over . According to the CCP this is not necessarily a bad thing . Probably average
Chinese people will go back to wearing all military green clothes , wearing the same sort of footwear and indiviualism will disappear.
- - - - - - and ride bicycles again.
@@ishaks8152 YOU MEAN E LECTRIC CARS
Sounds like the WEF plan to cancel fashion and have everyone wear a uniform.
@@icet6665that catch fire
Danie, especially in Hong Kong.
Great Wall Street Journal of lies.
Since we don't know if China will collapse into regionalism, as history suggests, I would really want to know any clues about what the army thinks.
They must wait for Retaliation from China. Unless you thing Chinese are fools.
They are thinking of removing xi fast & furious.
The "Army" don't think!?!
China is most stable country, far stable than the US. Their government enjoys more than 95% approval from their citizens for years now. It is not China claiming this, it is from Harvard University that does an annual study of China from 2006 to 2019 (cut short by the pandemic). Your idea of their army doing something is another wishful thinking stemming from you constantly being disinformed/misinformed by your MSM.
Good point. The number of imprisonments and disappearances of high-level PLA officials - which is way up - is a sure indicator that Xi is worried about this, too. Indeed a big problem the speaker didn't mention is that Xi has eliminated all top leaders that had enough ability to ever challenge him for leadership. The country is being micromanaged by the B team.
no big deal, worst before year 1980.
But it's so much worse in the current US Regime dire straits! 😢
Ha Ha … it is so amusing that Wall Street had huge hopes of Communist Party and dashed …..he he 😁😁😁
Gerry Baker looks like Peter Mansbridge
How bad does the US want it to be? 'Cause that's exactly how bad it will get.
Imagine the cheek of them!! Actually building railroads and ports in OUR empire!!😅😅
Crisis? What crisis?
I dont click on RUclips to listen to the radio
Winnie the Pooh and his kingdom of delusions is turning out to be just that, delusional
Excellent interview!
"Pin the donkey on the person" - I've never heard that expression before, but it fits the context perfectly
I think China has hit the wall much like Japan did in the 90s. They no longer have a demographic tailwind, they have a demographic headwind due to the pre-one child policy kids hitting retirement and not having enough youth to carry the economy. The oldest "one child" children are now in their mid-40s and entering the post prime period of their careers. Their real estate meltdown will likely take real estate from 1/3 of the economy to less than 1/5 of the economy like the developed world, and it will likely be less than that as the bubble's real estate inventory and the debt to build it is worked off. They will face falling foreign investment and exports due to the CCP's wolf warrior policies and the end of growth. Finally, they are at the stage where easy high return infrastructure investments are over, and a lot of the current Chinese "investments" may never give economic pay back.
Take all those issues, and realize that China really needs to transition from an investment based economy to a consumption based economy, and to succeed you have to imagine they will succeed where Japan failed, despite having more problems to face than Japan had.
China was made with euros and dollars, just like Russia. Once these autocratic regimes feel strong enough, they will bite the hands that fed them. They take everything you offer, and steal what you don’t, and they never give a single penny in return.
Consumption based economy has failed in US esp when the source was primarily debts. Investment backed by sound money in a moderately regulated market would be more sustainable as long as wages are in steady growth
@@ssuwandi3240 Good luck with all that, Chief. It will be as successful in China as it was in Japan.
@@dancahill9585 Japan wages had been stagnated until very recently which has been fueled by exports. Consumption thru debts scaling without fiscally monetized expansion is called Socialism which basically one day the Government is running out of others people's money.
@@ssuwandi3240 If you think China's economy will be successful on the path it is on, by all means, invest all your money in China, lol. Don't be surprised when you can't get it out due to capital controls. Also don't be surprised if the Chinese company you invest in is cooking its books, because China kicked out a lot of foreign accountants and consultants who wanted the books to reflect the truth.
Where is your VIDEO?
Radio killed the video star
A video that doesn't move?
China’s hyper-shadow banking “system” (if it can be labeled that) has reached its mathematical limit and is imploding. China has NO ‘firewall” risk system to prevent a cascading contagion. The real question is about the degree of Western exposures to pending defaults.
Ask shorter questions.
Chine 33% GDP is false
You are "Alibaba and the 40 thieves. That's why.
Look your own country. 😂
Not as bad as BidenFlation
YTD August China runs a 550B$ trade surplus or about 800B$ for the whole year at this rate. This is slight lower than 2022 which was an astounding $850B. So trade surplus China is doing well. There was a housing crash. Tell me one country which has never had one, including the US ? So it does not look dire as all the English papers say.
The sheer scale and percentage of gdp invested in real estate in China is mind boggling. That's why it's different.
"Move along folks, move along. Nothing to see, nothing to see".
@@azmodanpc China 2023 is nothing as epic as 2008 US subprime crisis which took down Bear Stern and several banks. The US has been running 22 consecutive years, that's a whole generation, of fiscal deficits to goose the economy.
@@joem0088 And the CCP has been doing it since 2008. At least with the extent and size that has been causing them problems.
@@azmodanpc Yes, and the US has been running big fiscal deficits to pretend there is grow. GDP by debt balloon.
Very bad. More bad.
I loved the 64 trillion yuan question “comment.
In general I do not trust the WSJ but I ck in once in a while.
I'm adding, perhaps having not heard about it yet in the blog, the effect of the real estate collapse ' influence on the BANKING & SHADOW BANKING system. . .certainly catastrophically significant!
Nonsense.
Boring
🎵🎶🎵Bye bye American Lie (Pie) LOL 😂😂😂
Bye bye Chinese Dumpling filled (with cardboard)😅
Die Die America Die 😭
Every lie uas a price that eventually has to be paid
Is this really WSJ?