Great breakdown. I'm very new to baseball. I've heard that Ohtani's fast ball isn't one of his best pitches, despite throwing upper 90s to 101mph. Is it a lack of control, or is it how you disguise the fast ball with another pitch/es, or something else that makes his fast ball hittable, while other pitchers can rely on it as their go to pitch to get strikeouts? I only see placement and velocity, but there must be more that differentiate a great fast ball from a hittable one, even when the great one is slower than the other. Feels like I'm further confusing myself just trying to ask the question. Not sure I'm making any sense. Baseball is hard to understand the intricacies of, especially pitching.
Yes, there is an easy way to determine the quality of a 4 seam fastball from other 4 seams. The answer is a vertical movement, which is a combination of spin rate, true spin, and release point. The higher the spin rate, the more the backspin of the 4 seam acts to combat the gravity on the ball. The true spin, is a percentage of how much the force applied into the ball is working against gravity(the more true spin means the closer to true backspin, while low true spin would be more gyro spin like a football spiral). Lastly, the release point, as a lower release point would in general mean that there is less need for the pitch to be aimed down at the zone(this one is the least important, many pitchers have success with both high and low release). The spin rate and spin axis matter so much, that in fact, statistically, a 2300rpm(rotations per minute) 4seam, which is league average, at a speed of 100mph, has the same contact percentage as a top 2600+rpm 90 mph fastball. A 2600 rpm 100mph fastball, has almost half the contact of a 100mph 2300rpm fastball. Spin rate is only useful if you can use it the right way, however. Not all of the spin on the ball will move the ball in the right way, so the amount of spin applied to the direction of the ball, can be measured as a percentage, true spin. The pitchers will the best fastballs, for example Jacob Degrom, have both spin and velocity, with around 99mph, and upper 2500 rpm. Shohei’s fastball is around 97, with mid 2200 rpm. This entire conclusion lies on the fact that batters almost never swing and miss above a fastball. Having more spin on the ball means more movement for any pitch; for fastballs, it would be up. All stats regarding pitchers’ average velo, true spin, and spin rate per pitch is publicly available on statcast(baseballsavant.mlb.com).
An example of someone using a low release point to further prevent the ball from dropping is spencer strider. His velocity is one of the best in the league, while his spin rate is in the top 20% of pitchers. There are many pitchers, who should have better fastballs, but he seems to have far more success, as he is leading the league(by far) in strikeout, K% and Ks/9, while throwing 65% of his pitches as fastballs.
@@96fatcat Wow, fantastic explanation. Thank you for taking the time to so thoroughly explain what must be very basic knowledge for most baseball fans. Your explanation deserves more than a paltry upvote. I really appreciate it.
Great breakdown. I'm very new to baseball. I've heard that Ohtani's fast ball isn't one of his best pitches, despite throwing upper 90s to 101mph. Is it a lack of control, or is it how you disguise the fast ball with another pitch/es, or something else that makes his fast ball hittable, while other pitchers can rely on it as their go to pitch to get strikeouts? I only see placement and velocity, but there must be more that differentiate a great fast ball from a hittable one, even when the great one is slower than the other.
Feels like I'm further confusing myself just trying to ask the question. Not sure I'm making any sense. Baseball is hard to understand the intricacies of, especially pitching.
Yes, there is an easy way to determine the quality of a 4 seam fastball from other 4 seams. The answer is a vertical movement, which is a combination of spin rate, true spin, and release point. The higher the spin rate, the more the backspin of the 4 seam acts to combat the gravity on the ball. The true spin, is a percentage of how much the force applied into the ball is working against gravity(the more true spin means the closer to true backspin, while low true spin would be more gyro spin like a football spiral). Lastly, the release point, as a lower release point would in general mean that there is less need for the pitch to be aimed down at the zone(this one is the least important, many pitchers have success with both high and low release). The spin rate and spin axis matter so much, that in fact, statistically, a 2300rpm(rotations per minute) 4seam, which is league average, at a speed of 100mph, has the same contact percentage as a top 2600+rpm 90 mph fastball. A 2600 rpm 100mph fastball, has almost half the contact of a 100mph 2300rpm fastball. Spin rate is only useful if you can use it the right way, however. Not all of the spin on the ball will move the ball in the right way, so the amount of spin applied to the direction of the ball, can be measured as a percentage, true spin. The pitchers will the best fastballs, for example Jacob Degrom, have both spin and velocity, with around 99mph, and upper 2500 rpm. Shohei’s fastball is around 97, with mid 2200 rpm. This entire conclusion lies on the fact that batters almost never swing and miss above a fastball. Having more spin on the ball means more movement for any pitch; for fastballs, it would be up. All stats regarding pitchers’ average velo, true spin, and spin rate per pitch is publicly available on statcast(baseballsavant.mlb.com).
An example of someone using a low release point to further prevent the ball from dropping is spencer strider. His velocity is one of the best in the league, while his spin rate is in the top 20% of pitchers. There are many pitchers, who should have better fastballs, but he seems to have far more success, as he is leading the league(by far) in strikeout, K% and Ks/9, while throwing 65% of his pitches as fastballs.
@@96fatcat Amazing response. This is also how we know Shohei isn’t using any sticky stuff haha.
@@omegacroc2928 indeed, although nowadays I doubt anyone can get away with sticky stuff
@@96fatcat Wow, fantastic explanation. Thank you for taking the time to so thoroughly explain what must be very basic knowledge for most baseball fans. Your explanation deserves more than a paltry upvote. I really appreciate it.
Can we get an analysis on Paxton 2023? Is this legit?
guy sounds like he hit a Ohtani prop parlay
Do Reid Detmers against the twins 12k's!!
Analyze some relievers!