Tesla Has Turned A Corner.
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- Опубликовано: 24 апр 2024
- The Robots Are Coming www.farzadmesbahi.com/merch
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
I have been a shareholder of Tesla since 2012 and currently own Tesla stock. Nothing I say constitutes as investment or financial advice.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
If you like this content I would greatly appreciate your likes and shares!
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It’s funny, all the new car ads are featuring driver assists/amenities and Tesla is eliminating the driver
Enjoy being a father! It's the greatest gift of all! Sending you good vibes and many blessings brother!!!🎉
it's amazing how depressed everyone was before the call. life is unpredictable.
Green is a bright color ;)
Very hard... I bought it last year (most at $260) on the belief $300 soon and what the future would hold. ONLY watch a sizeable chunk of my savings drip down to $150 for no real reason. Humm! I sold most and ouch... NOW when to get in! I am dripping in as prudent. Yes, I wish I had gotten out sooner to buy @ near-now low. What is the next year ?? Now need $300 without setbacks.. I am 72 haha! Go TSLA B-Elong!
I don't know how anyone saw that call as positive. Everyone is hanging on Elon saying a new model coming sooner. Tell me when has Elon ever been on time with his guidance. Musk is never off by days, weeks, or months but years. I don't know how people drink this koolaid
@@hal8683 Brother you should know by now to hold
@@bobbob-gx1iq someone saw it as positive, because the stock is up $25
now let's give elon his pay package.
I support this message
German share holders who want to vote but can't approve this message also.
Absolutely 👍
@@derjorgo2860I’m in UK, I’ve just started to transfer my shares to Degiro, a Dutch brokerage - I should then be able to vote. Is that an option for you?
@@derjorgo2860
?
Put the word out to "Influencers" who have Elons ear on X.... See if word gets through. I bet he would have an opinion on that.
Rueters should be sued
Maybe more fitting, they will quietly go bankrupt and fold up their tent when no one listens to them anymore.
*Reuters
Probably not much point in suing Reuters - move on and demonstrate their dishonesty
Reuters short TSLA 😎
Just trash their reputation.
I get the feeling Elon is in full "Trolling mode"
It’s not that people don’t want electric. They just don’t want their electric vehicles. They want a Tesla.
For me Tesla is like the Mercedes of EV's at Chevrolet prices.
Exactly! I want an EV, I just don't want a Ford EV. Most manufacturer’s an barely match the capability of the first year of Model S. Why would I buy from a company thats almost 10 years behind and doesn't have a functioning charging network. Not to mention, why wold I want to buy a car thats enter business model is to sell a car thats for near cost and then make money on the back side by needing constant repairs(also Ford). It's not that people don't want Evs, they just dont want the crap Evs that most companies are selling.
I’m waiting for investors to turn a corner.
That's why if you invest in Tesla, you need to be in the mindset that you are playing the long game. Wall Street investors will be the last group to realize Tesla is not your stereotypical "car company. "
@@tamiasthechipmunk yes play the long game but don't expect a 35% haircut on the come! Not good ... but go TSLA ( I could have been in the S&P until now) to the moon now!
Could Reuters have been right but Elon changed his mind?
@@georgeginsburg545definitely not. No way Elon changes the direction of the company based on a news article. They have been planning this for a long time. It's all to contribute to the flywheel of FSD training
no.
Every Saturday morning I take a 4 mile walk back & forth i.e a total of 8 miles. For years I have counted the number of EV's I see each time. 4-5 years ago, on a good day, I would see a total of 10 EV's. Counting this week I saw nearly 20 in each direction I walked. 80% are Tesla. Clearly, many many more people are driving EV's.
I always hang out in my car right after telling my wife to clean the house.
I found it interesting that Tesla is targeting both Waymo and Uber. And while I'm not sure I want to risk my car being trashed by the general public, I love the idea of sharing my "robotaxi" with just my extended family members.
You'll be able to restrict passengers based on their rating. E.g., if you want to only allow 5 star passengers, then have at it.
I will share my car with my neighbor and form a pod of small group that share one car. There will be many pods, each like a car club. Only vetted members can get into a particular geolocated club
@@pokerchannel6991 Now I'm thinking of the rural college campuses which could use cars for shuttling students back and forth to the airport for move-in and exit days. It cost my kiddo $40 to go one way with a private shuttle service and the town had no Uber presence to speak of.
1) Cameras in and around the car.
.
2) ALL paid for on account.
You trash the car, you pay for the repairs and the downtime.
If you don't sign that agreement, you don't ride.
.
3) Someone in your party does it, you're responsible.
.
4) You avoid payment? You're walking.
(Depending how arrangements with Uber, etc go, you won't be in their cars either)
.
5) You try with somebody else paying... Face recognition? AI driven?
People are disrespectful slobs. Ask an honest uber driver. Ask a car rental agency. Just write it off on your taxes does not work for me. I used to clean cars and businesses and homes. Your investment will work against you. Think it through. Good Luck.
hey young man, you're successful at this bc you are kind and it shows. wish you and your wife a blessed birth and wonderful family life.
Amen
Totally agree.
Anyone who thinks the public are turning away from EVs is just completely wrong
Completely wrong! Always the extremes never any thought given to the alternatives. It is true in that the majority will not be turning away from something as they were not heading in that direction in the first place. EVs are a fringe interest at present given their cost, running complexity and support structure. The current scheme trying to persuade people they want something and at the same time forcing them to buy it outlawing alternatives is doomed to failure. If there was any merit in the scheme it just would not need the coercion.
These are the folks who conveniently ignore the 10 straight quarters where Tesla murdered expectations and was only halted by finance rate hikes.
@michaeld5888 how do you determine if something is fringe or not? By your feelings? What is the EV generation growth YOY across globally?
You cannot sell ICE vehicles by 2035. Is that a fringe?
@@michaeld5888 The Netherlands, Finland, and Denmark are doing exactly that and being very successful with it.
Elon talked about on the call how people and companies are all switching to Hybrids, he said he thought it was the wrong decision.
But, I guess, by your logic, Elon is wrong. It's part of the reason Tesla's revenues dropped from 25 billion to 21 billion. It hasn't been this low for almost 2 years, and next quarter it's likely to be lower due to their sales being decimated in China.
But Elon's thesis was, "if your invested in Tesla because of cars then sell your stock", they are going to be selling Optimus end of 2025 and have the robo taxi fleet by 2026. That's the buy thesis for Tesla.
The dealership model is also pushing consumers into buying hybrid vehicles. They make more money with ongoing maintenance. Do not underestimate the influence of the dealers on the consumer.
Let's be honest, that's not going to end well, is it?
@@rogerstarkey5390 They know that. They simply want to slow down the transition to EVs, and hope Tesla has a misstep along the way.
Ron Baron trying to explain it to the media
I'm happy about this as an all-in TSLA guy. Still looking for 2030 as my retirement year.
Same here! 56 now...
Me too
I'm already retired, and if TSLA went nowhere for another five years, it wouldn't really affect me, but if it went to $500 or more, I'd probably be willing to squander money on things like first class airline seats.
I am all in and looking to retire in 5yrs
This. I’m tired of people still saying 10 years.
"Cheaper" is a term to relate to quality.
"Less expensive" is more appropriate.
Affordable.
I'm excited for the future of this company. Amazing how many people I know will not believe Tesla is ahead of all the other Auto Companies with Ai and strategies for the future.
It's amazing how the same people believe in hybrid, which is a battery, but doesn't believe battery is the future
@@jordan0changHybrid is like Blackberry was, a smart phone with a full button keyboard.
For the already heavily indebted legacy brands having to develop and produce even better EVs for years at a loss to reach a comparable scale with the associated economic benefits is simply an impossible hurdle to pass.
The year 2023 was the year of capitulation of the legacy brands realizing that bitter reality.
So either the luxury niche or temporary the hybrid route are the only options left to those legacy brands.
The OEMs could easily absorb the EV losses with their massive ICE profits, but then the shareholders, especially pension funds, would be unhappy.
Greed dilutes intilect.
Resesarch increases productivity.
In production, initial perfection kills production.
Progress is the result of making, then applying constant incremental improvements.
I believe that Tesla would only licence FSD to EVs, which maybe would get other automakers back on the electrification track.
I hope you are wrong, because the most profitable target market is likely semi's and they will probably take longer to accept Evs.
I thought the same thing, let's not let the Gassers a shot at this tech you gotta be EV.
Me too. I was expecting way less than what we got! 🚀
I think he got kicked out. Remember when he said Producer Wife was getting "quite big"? You can't get away with that!!! A few days in the car will do him good. He's a smart guy, he'll learn😅
Before the model T, when Ford did his research, people said they just wanted a faster horse. :) people cannot envision what they can’t imagine.
Remember when 1 Mb of RAM seemed outrageous? I do.
He actually never said that, but its a sexy story for sure
As some people would say,” there was an adult in the room”and he said exactly what people needed to hear!
It’s still stunning to me that he’s been saying the same thing he’s been saying since Autonomy Day 2019. Perhaps folks are just really starting to listen.
Reuters - the dark overseer of the MSM.
Nice to see you back in person, off the cuff, sitting in the garage, interesting, refreshing!
How do we know it's not AI Farzad?
This is the _first_ time the stock went *up* after an earnings report. *_WOW!_*
The first time in a long time, but not the first time ever
The times are a changing
I really think the dealer model for legacy auto makers is what the real problem is in the EV transition.
Dealers make more money from maintenance than from initial sales. Though consumers will buy EVs when available and reasonably priced, dealers won't be getting a regular shop customer from an EV sale. Dealers are the speed bump because they see self destruction and loss of primary income with every EV sale. Dealers are just specialized garages and banking businesses now. Consumers do not need them unless their cars keep breaking down and needing scheduled services every 3 months
Manufacturers and Consumers, are ready for EVs, but dealers are skewing the entire story by not aggressively selling EVs and benefits. When a dealer has to mention the benefits of EVs they just cringe in the foreseen losses, so I bet they steer people away.
I'm not sure if most dealerships are smart enough to get that idea, EV's still need maintenance don't they, I think the more direct problem could be that they do not like to adjust.
@@onlyme0349 Not much maintenance. Tire rotation, eventually tire replacement. What else? No oil changes the first few hundred thousand miles. No engine tuning. No engine air and fuel filters. No radiator flushes. No exhaust system replacement. I used to have regular maintenance on my gasoline and on my PHEV. Now it's only tire rotation on my EV. LFP batteries are lasting hundreds of thousands of miles (and CATL predicts the batteries proper will cost USD 3000 by the end of the year, presumably even less in several years). That's thin gruel for a dealership that's used to a line out its garage every 7am, of people dropping off cars for service.
@@onlyme0349 They don't have to be very smart or clever to realize that no EVs ever come back in 3 months for an oil change and to be sold more services and parts. After selling a single EV and not regularly seeing that car or customer, dealers have to know they are loosing money. ICE buyers are religious with oil changes and more for warranty reasons, while EV buyers may be a year before they need anything from a dealer parts department or service center.
@@bearcubdaycare I think that is the dam in the river of the auto industry. Dealers are just out dated and customers don't have any actual need for them even with ICE vehicles. Dealers simply add expense to every vehicle transaction. The old dealer model worked because they did the advertising and sales work. Now customers can find out anything the want to know with a click. There are repair shops on every other corner, so dealers are used because of warranty obligations more than necessity. Dealers have driven up all automotive pricing through past monopoly. They have to see the writing on the wall. Dealers are realizing, but I'm not sure legacy makers are realizing how much dealers hate to sell EVs. Everybody is thinking the public won't buy them, but dealers will only sell them if they have to for contract reasons. The worse the dealers make EV markets look, the more ICE and PHEVs (ICE) they can maintain for the next few years.
Thanks Farzad.. awesome take!
You say they didn’t cancel the $25,000 car but it sounded like the “more affordable” car will be a cheaper Model 3/Y and they will then focus on a robo taxi. So maybe they did actually cancel the $25,000 car, and potentially also the plans for the factory in Mexico?
Agreed.
Cheaper 3 is interim step, gap filler. It’ll use some future tech, but not unboxed.
It can use US made cells, get IRA credits. Not rely on CATL getting a pass to manufacture in N. America.
Next generation vehicle will start as cyber cab.
That’s the real story.
TSLA is turning in a roundabout
No they haven’t. This does nothing to stop the sales bleed. My local Tesla center is over flowing with vehicles. It’s so bad they’ve taken up a major part of the mall parking.
Words don’t sell cars.
Or maybe a ship arrived?
(If you're in the US, Was it just a shipment to your area?)
Reuters attempt to manipulate the stock price
Reuters short TSLA...
Not likely. More probably just shoddy journalism.
Thank you for this. I really needed some good news about TSLA
Great thoughtful insights. Thanks ❤
Just bought my first tesla (model 3 LR) and it feels 20 years in the future compared to my prior ICE car, amazing engineering, excited to see how far they can go
I find it interesting how alot of people used to consider Boeing as the pinnacle of American engineering and now I feel like Tesla and SpaceX occupy that position yet unfortunately instead of encouragement they are often met with unfair criticism and skepticism by the media.
big congrats on the baby man!!! awe
Farzad, brilliant observation on the slackening demand on batteries leading to a glut. I had a concern that Tesla would be overwhelm its own 4680 production trying to satisfy Model Y, Cyber truck and the Semi demand to say nothing about energy storage growth. As they say ‘it is an ill wind that does not blow anyone any good’ and Tesla stands to benefit from both low costs and massive battery cell supplies while its competitors are curtailing their commitments. Tesla recently cut $2k off vehicle prices but the significant drop in COGS will likely maintain or even improve margins.
I saw a recent chart showing that Tesla's ASP and COGS matched almost exactly, so chances are that Tesla will pass on cost savings to the consumers.
Congrats Farzad! You have grown your channel pretty quick.
Enjoyed this!
Also, with all legacy car manufacturers turning to hybrids, that will also increase the costs of batteries that target hybrid vehicles.
It's like buying bulk vs buying a single item. When you buy bulk, it works out cheaper.
Pure EV batteries are the bulk option, while hybrid ones are the single more expensive options.
Some would say an adult showed up for the call… also very important!!
Very well said! OEMs keep trying!
Excellent summary, Farzad.
It's nice video...respect you dude...
Farzad laugh is 10/10 😂 Someone needs to stitch all his laughs together…plz
Love the videos BTW ❤
Great video totaly agree with you ! it s just the start forTesla
I just had my 10th anniversary driving Tesla, have not pumped gas since dec 2021 car rental, way better for it
Me too and when I need to rent a car I find a Tesla through TURO.
@Mpr47276 yes I always rent evs, but this one time because, the last time I pumped gas b4 Dec 2021 was in Italy in 2015. Turn can be good as well
be good to hear from lee from tesla economist on battery news. no need for urgency on 4680s in the end.
The same will happen in politics or in society. The narratives we are bombarded with are overtaken and torn down by reality. Good.
In NY State, original PHEV registrations have not exceeded those of battery EVs since 2018. . . .
This is so weird. It's like he's never heard about FSD/robotaxi promises made 7 years ago. Doesn't anyone here remember the previous promises on this?!?!
Is everyone here in the bored ape bag holder club?
Irrelevant to the present
@@darylfoster7944 I bet there's a very expensive contact list with the names of people who say "irrelevant to the present".
Apparently Andrew Baglino filed to sell almost all his shares. Doesn’t sounds like he’s very optimistic.
Truth always comes out 🗣️🙏
Farzad, I know Elon follows you. Would you mind posting on X and asking if there has been any progress on the Cybertruck Longterm Shareholder program? Last contact from them was about 6 weeks ago. A lot of us are curious. Thanks so much for what you do for the community - I hope you make a killing doing it, you deserve it!
You are wrong. Hybrid drivers like the idea of city driving on electric, but not having to look for recharging stations for highway driving.
Hybrids, 50 miles on electric, 700 miles on gas. With a overall 50 mpg.
Are you STILL pushing that old story?
Sad.
@@rogerstarkey5390 I'm just passing on what Hybrid buyers are telling me directly. Hopefully, I can get my Cybertruck at a reasonable price.
@@rogerstarkey5390 there is also missing destination charging. I live in a small town with massive baseball, softball fields. Adding destination charging would encourage the adoption of EVs.
Who drives 700 miles without stopping? I don't even drive 200 miles without a stop.
Excellent update, thanks!
I’m shocked- Reuters and the others selling FUD and lies! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
agreed. added 10 shares tuesday morning because i felt setiment had changed. that's a lot for me. going to be fun watching these shares go green again.
I was never depressed or skeptical. Tesla fundamentals are super strong.
Thanks Farzad for the positive view on EV's and Tesla, I completely agree with your views but it can be hard convincing the oil burners that things have moved on and its time to leave the dirt and the poisonous exhaust behind
Tesla are literally shitting on every other company in every aspect, I don’t know how they do it but bravo! 👏🏽
Phenomenal!
Elon and Tesla playing 5D chess, most legacy auto makers stuck in 2D
Because we will automatically all positions positions in the economy we will need a Ubi based off the total automated production percentage of the GDP to protect the Free market and have actual tracking of supply and demand based off the real numbers
Good job Farzad!
7:44 .. or achieve a healthy margin, or even both.
But the supply of federal credit qualified batteries is not there. No federal credit on the M3.
Alhamdulilah brother.. sending good wishes your way for your newborn. $tsla to the moon 🌙
I’d love for them to simply buy Aptera……
There’s the low cost “car” ready to go.
It’s not a product. It (the company) looks increasingly suspect as time goes by. The vehicle just isn’t practical for anything beyond a novelty for the rich.
Apteras are more dangerous than a motorcycle, you pay 25k for a 250 range ev, when electric costs on typical evs already aren’t even the problem… insurance rates will be high as hell, and that all under the assumption that they actually deliver on specs they promise. I don’t see Aptera as the future
I think they could do better for less money
This is the issue for those suggesting the "2 set taxi"
Well said. In 2015-6, the financial/investment community and my personal financial advisor told me to sell my Tesla stock. I didn't! The current FUD is no one wants EVs..... your analysis is correct IMHO.
Keep it up dude, love your content and style.
I think one of the biggest things is, if I am correct, they will be able to manufacture multiple models, current and future, on one line, factory maximizing the efficiency of their current factories and delaying building new factories until the electric car market improves.
I live on mountain roads in Vermont. Most of them are dirt roads around me. Do you think the FSD can handle tons of ruts and potholes? I’m always having to avoid obstacles. I don’t want to ruin my car if it doesn’t stop or slow down enough. I often have to drive on the left side of the road.
Please admit that’s an edge case.
Tesla will solve eventually, not an early priority.
First demonstrate safety around pedestrians, just get A to B.
Hey Farzad, I've been invested in a major way with Tesla since 2019, and while I agree with your take that a corner has definitely been turned, I wonder about the 3 high-level execs that all chose to leave Tesla within a day of one another. Can you speculate about the possibility that they left due to some irreconcilable differences with regard to the possibility of Tesla ramping ahead of schedule with plans or some other bad news type situation responsible for all 3 leaving that might be lying in wait to ambush us all by summer?
Love your humor .
It’s taken a turn that’s is for sure 📈💯
Now everyone's gotta push to sue Reuters and NHTSA, thank you
It's hard to sue someone for shoddy reporting
Or how much a lack of a PR dept to combat the fud is dragging down the stock sentiment
Didn't mind the news. It gave me the opportunity to buy more shares.
Nope, its a short term bounce to correct oversold conditions.
Congrats on the new addition! 🎉
Totally agree. It’s also pretty obvious how Reuters have lost their credibility jumping on the “Elon bad” bandwagon
megapacks also benefit
Love the shirt, Everyday Astronaut fan?
Now that the future is looking bright for autonomous driving, I notice the media have switched their reporting to bashing Tesla’s autonomy, I am amazed that Tesla performs as it does considering the constant negative press.
hey shoutout to everydayastronaut! I have this shirt too lol
The 4680 clarification from management must have made Teslaeconomist's heart sink like crazy 😢
Yeah, that earnings call had some significant positives. The stock price seemed to jump, so other investors thought so. I wonder how the short sellers fared.
Forward P/E ratio is 95
Just was parked next to a new M 'Y' in a supermarket lot. OMG, how beautiful it is. So pretty and impressive, I would HATE to give it up to 'robotaxi' service. I would be so anxious for my 'lover's return'.
Tesla can change directions fast reacting to market conditions.
Rather then making less cars they want to make more cars on the same production lines.
By making the cheaper cars they have a bigger pool of buyers.
Possible connection: discussions with pension funds and investment firms around the upcoming Compensation Package Vote and the things they might like to hear during the Earnings Call to support a Flailing Stock Price AND SUBSTANTIALLY EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS from that call, in terms of the sort of things that actually would be likely to support a higher stock price. Rumours of 4 of the Top 10 "Investors" probably supporting the pay package ealier this month had been encouraging, but if the rest had been iffy going into the vote that'd be a Big Gamble. Perhaps that had been enough to shift Elon's approach to the call--or even to the substantial shift or transformation that the company has recently made, including more than the usual number of layoffs. (If so it'd be a bit ironic for those that look at all workers as good, and all rich CEO's as bad.)
Tesla's earnings call was positive and it made me feel optomistic about the future. With that said, I think it's important for all of us not to get ahead of ourselves. Most of what was said about FSD, Robo Taxis, and more affordable cars at this point is still just words. Really looking forward to see what Tesla is able to accomplish but I don't think it does any of us any good to get overly excited before Tesla delivers.
Hey, great channel. Please consider that All exist car manufacturing is captured by dealerships. Dealerships are the reason why they lose money on full EVs, and the dealerships want hybrids. They want all of the exact maintenance costs. I own a Prius; it will be the last car I own with an engine.
Is it too early to short GM?
If someone comes out with an affordable plug in hybrid that goes 80 miles on a charge I think there could be a huge market for that for a good while
Reminds me so much of iPhone vs Blackberry/Nokia/Motorola
QUESTION: what's to keep Legacy auto makers from licensing FSD from Tesla for their gas powered and hybrid vehicles to remain competitive?
No, it flipped because Elon's talk made sense. In the last call, he was just uninterested. But on this one, he was on target, hopeful, preachy, and sounded great. When investors see he is focused, they know he is going to achieve extraordinary things.
You should do a episode while driving FSD 12.3+