Love the fact that your general demeanor off the cuff is exactly the same as your videos. Just a genuine sense of humor and clear intellectual engagement
Never expected to see Patrick on this channel! Patrick is one of the best RUclipsr when it comes to the financial industry content. He worked as a quant & he is now a professor in King's College London
There are too many influencers around youtube without any technical background in the subject talking about China/US and global economy. It is good to hear someone who actually knows what he is talking about
@@1queijocas if you're looking for anyone else, I would also recommend Aswath Damodaran. He's a professor at NYU. He posts all of his lectures online for his two classes, Corporate Finance and Valuation. I should warn you that some of his lectures are a bit boring, but that's par for the course, quite literally.
@@davidc4408 i still don't get where the "problem" is here. Teaching without the need for money is the best situation a teacher can be in. They can teach because they enjoy it and if they're not allowed to teach the way they want they can walk away and go somewhere else that will let them.
@@nomadcapitalist The fact that Trump is the only critic of imperialism known to our host Andrew Henderson unfortunately shows Henderson to be a vapid uneducated git.
Pleased that Patrick admitted that he lives in a bubble of rich people and one has to be careful about extrapolating any opinion from his circle to the wider population. The trouble with hedge fund managers in general is they only live and see the rich person's perspective. They are as bad as economists at assuming every single decision made by an individual is based on a monetary assessment. People make emotional choices first and foremost. Great data point from Patrick about mobility, quite contradictory to the attempted assertion that everyone will move to where the taxes are lowest. Which in turn is a nice illustration of emotion taking precedence over analysis.
Emotions are key to finding out who you really are and what personal evolution is required.. we have a long way to go but things are coming together fast in the information age. Exciting times, nothing to fear but fear (entropy)
Yeah this is true. The Western assumptions about Chinese rail transport are also dangerous. I can tell you personally that inter provincial Chinese trains are consistently packed and sold out.
@@rapier1954 the US interstate highway system also doesn't turn a profit, and whose coat of operation is comparable to that of Chinese HSR - does that make the interstate system a failure?
@@XDTape the US interstate highway system lack of maintenance will become a liability soon. @bonquaviusdingle5720 Chinese HSR is a public service that the public use, not a cash generator.
Awesome interview. This guy knows his stuff, and throws in that wit which is just hilarious, while still learning something. Thanks to all involved with this interview.
im a noob on this, but is interesting that they seems to see China as a place to invest, and i think that was in the past, China is now investing in other places, i think they are seeing things from the wrong perspective, China is now in the other side, and they are doing it much much better than the west.
The railroad situation in the past in the US is a great example. I used to go to a private supper club where the bathroom walls were papered with stock certificates from defunct railroads.
I'm a big fan of Patrick Boyle. He is one of the very very few financial youtubers that when they speak I listen intently. It is rare for me to listen to someone as much as I have to Patrick about financial topics and have never once said "well that was just wrong". I've disagreed with a statement, only one statement which is still impressive to me, from Nomad Capitalist but not from Boyle.
@@theodorehsu5023that kind of statement can get you into a bar fight! Irish guys usually hate being confused with the English/ British even if it’s a bit like distinguishing between a Dane and a Norwegian.
@@theodorehsu5023 my favorite quote from Boyle is something like "I wouldn't say that because it wouldn't be nice and I pretend to be nice on this channel" 🤣
Thank you so much for having Patrick on! Exceptional content creator 👏 👌 I can confirm Patrick's statement about our TV channels. 80s baby- I was almost called Charlene (the poison dwarf from Dallas). Bless 80s Dublin ❤
But he never mentions colonialism or Opium Wars. Only communism. He has a political agenda and doesn't stick to fact: he is a neocon more than an economist.
This is exactly what autocratic empires experienced: you get one emperor who made a good, smart decision, and then subsequent emperors are incompetent and destroy what was built. They are incapable of learning, and they can't be replaced.
i am rolling my eyes, you know what confucisusism is about? It is about intellectuals gaslighting emperor on what equality he should have, and what he should do. China was ruled by intellectuals groups since Song dynasty, emperor was just a symbol. You really believe one man can rule one of the largest and long lasting empire? Go learn some history.
On the subject of Americans not moving "as much as it makes financial sense" the level of disconnect from people doing regular jobs is insane. Most people don't have savings enough to just up sticks and move, and the most valuable asset is their family being nearby. The weird people are the rootless classes with no attachments to the local areas.
Yea, Patrick is good at analyzing what rich people will do. Not so good at analyzing what other countries and working class will, as they have a completely different economic, financial out look and social mores, and priorities. For example, China deliberately pop their real estate bubble and refuse to bail out the overleveraged developers, making sure the home buyers and suppliers get their stuff first and let the vulture investors have the scraps. Then they used this opportunity to diversify the entire country's economy away from real estate, and impose strict limits on developers. This is unheard of in the west, it broke every rule in their book and it boggles their minds and all they can do is keep saying it won't work, it won't work, it won't work. Well, what do you know, taking care of your people first result in even higher approval ratings and the economy will eventually recover from the pivot and put energy in other useful sectors instead of useless and endless financial speculations. China is doing just fine because it does not work the same way as the western economies. Their policies and the actions will never be taken by western neoliberal capitalist governments and it is blowing the minds of western economists who have drank their own kool-aid on neoliberal economic dogmas.
@@gelinrefirawhat do you mean? They propped up their real estate bubble for ages, and when they finally did something about it, the general reaction was "Wow they're actual trying to solve it! Might be too late, but better now than never."
@@kanucks9 What a dumb take. They develop their real estate because they needed infrastructure so they invested in developing the capacity to build things. They had a purpose to it. Now the priorities have switch and they have excess building capacity, so they want to pared it down and invest the energy of the economy somewhere, and to prevent a bubble from popping uncontrollably, so they did something about. Your take is completely backward, and smack of bad faith.
@@kira-le9qr Yawn... if you stop watching western fake news, you would have know those "ghost cities" were planned for influx of people coming to the cities to find work. Those buildings are filled up now. Be better. Stop watching western corpo-state media propaganda. China is winning because they can plan their economy and steer it in the right direction. The US is losing because the neolibs are sucking up all the capital. Cope.
I'm sure all those millions that migrated on ships to America had lots of savings to "just up sticks and move", so did countless millions that moved countries within the EU for economic reasons. The only savings you absolutely need to be able to move is to have enough for a one-way ticket and to survive until the first salary - I know, I moved cities within my country three times and moved to a different country twice.
The floating mortgage rate and 5 year terms are only really a problem when the price of housing is allowed to balloon out of control. If the underlying price is remains anchored by wages, it's a much more equitable policy because you don't win the lottery by buying a house at a certain point in time and locking in low rates. But that's a big IF.
What's funny is that I love his deadpan, but I actually also love seeing him get the opportunity to laugh at his own jokes. Because they're really funny.
Patrick is insightful as always, with one glaring exception: the reason the train tracks were ripped up is from the car companies buying up these tracks, ripping them out, and convincing the government to build roads instead. They successfully lobbied and made themselves integral to infrastructure planning and ensured this car centric design was the ONLY thing that was invested in moving forward. Train access should be much better in the US, and the road should be far less subsidized than they are.
Ehh that’s partially true. Your thinking of the electric light rails. I think he is talking more about the longer distance tracks used for both passenger and freight. Planes impacted longer distance train travel substantially. Containers allowed shipping and trucking to compete better with rail and reduced which rail routes are profitable. Car companies gad a roll but it wasn’t everything.
Not only car companies but oil companies played a major role during great new deal when they are building up the Highways. To maximize your profit, you need more trucks on the road not rail tracks. Nothing happens suddenly/trendy in economies or politics, everything is calculative. Dealers and brokers create markets.
@@adeyemi8730 your pointis what I've been saying to my friends: "you don't wait for demand in Capitalism, you MAKE the demand". And as a Communist, the Chinese, for me, hitted the jackpot - the infrastructure projects there helped not on the short term economic growth, but on the long term, the results are even impossible to predict, but are always on the positive.
Huge kudos to Andrew for being an excellent interviewer. You prompted Prof. Boyle with great questions, let him flesh out his arguments and let the conversation flow and evolve organically. Truly a pleasure to listen to. It also doesn't hurt that I could listen to Prof. Boyle for hours 😁
As an observer of China since 1980, and now an investor, I came to the same general conclusions that Patrick has. A couple of years ago my investing teacher was wanting to go big into Chinese stocks as they were declining He even sent his analysts over to China to learn more about the companies he was interested in. What he missed learning about was still hidden by the nature of their society, their government and by barriers they intentionally operate behind. My warning to him took a while to sink in. After starting a new position in one stock more Chinese dominos fell and he saw what I have been seeing for years. The story in China is radically different now compared to what it was 4 tears ago. Rarely is there ever just one event that changes an investment thesis. Patrick is good at seeing the while picture and is good at knowing when the thesis has changed and new strategy is required.
So you are now a billionaire due to your wise investments? Chinas growth since 1980 to now is a miracle basically, unseen and unmatched by any country. You can talk about corruption, hiding numbers, bubbles and this and that, but you can't deny that china has gone from nothing into a superpower in like 40 years, 70 max when modern China was founded in 1949 and CPC took power. So I don't see what your point is, China did great and is still doing great. Even if the gov completely collapsed tomorrow and had zero gdp and zero growth, it's accomplishments and China's advancement over the last 40-70 years cannot be denied. The infrastructure, education, technology and everything else would still exist, and if China can go from absolute poverty with zero tech and economy, zero literacy rate, 30-35 year life expectancy and half the countries population still being opium addicts in 1949 to what they are now, they can easily do it again when they are starting from an exponentially higher starting place. They've already done all the hard work like education and have 98%+ literacy rate(India still 70% for context/comparison), have higher life expectancy than even USA now, zero drug addicts, and technology level that can only be rivalled by USA, with China leading already in many specific sectors and technologies. But I digress. Playing stocks anywhere is a risk and is literally gambling, and a country as big, complex, and diverse as china of course would have risk, same as any other country. If anything, China's system allows for much more predictability and stability since their gov doesn't change and their policies don't flip flop every 4 years in every direction. The gov also means what they say, and more importantly, they actually achieve and accomplish all their plans and policies. The only time this isn't true is if the policy itself was wrong to begin with, and the gov will change their policies accordingly. But this is a gradual process, and China always tests out new tech or policies at small scale first and only if successful on village level, will it proceed to move to city, then province, then national etc. Imo most westerners or foreigners in general have little to no real understanding of Chinese society, government, system, culture, etc etc. Most don't even know enough about their own countries system, gov etc to be making valid criticisms, let alone offer alternatives to improve on the current situation/system/policies.
@@joephysics5469 it has its problems just as any country but in general, 5% growth of 20 trillion dollar economy(forecasted to continue for 2-3 decades at least) with 8 trillion in foreign reserves and 1-2% inflation would be considered doing well for any country. In fact if USA had 5% growth it would be considered a miracle and doing great. Even 4% or 3% would be considered great, let alone 5% and 1-2% inflation. USA is like 8-10% inflation, and only 1-2% growth. And that is already considered reasonably good, although not great. If it was just 2% growth and 1-2% inflation then that is good, but not with 8-10% inflation. Any further out than 2-3 decades is too far and anything can happen from now to then so I won't comment too much about that. Also, Chinese leaders are capable, the country is united, isn't in any wars, and due to their political system and unity and smart capable leaders, I am confident that any problems can be rectified where if they happened to western liberal democracy, it would be a catastrophy that would cripple them. For china it will maybe slow them down and they will have like 3-4% growth instead of 5%. Just see Ukraine war. They couldn't even cripple Russian economy, China protected Russia from the worst effects and now eu trade is being replaced by China, while eu cannot replace Russia and thus is taking more losses than Russia. It also pushed Russia completely into Chinas open arms which was the dumbest move ever for usa. Brezinsky must be rolling in his grave. And Kissinger too if he was dead. 😂
@@ex0duzz That sounds nice and fuzzy . You could be right. Most American Wall Street types get their information from the same places and few ever do better than someone who just buys an S&P 500 etf.
@@ex0duzz china has great development but don't think westerners can make money on chinese stocks. its opaque and control of govt . good example Alibaba and its founder which has hit dust in terms of price 😢
Great interview. I was curious about the comment towards the end regarding “lots of countries” in Europe outside of EU. Seems to me that the list is quickly dwindling unless you include some of the remaining Balkan states that have not been swept up.
18:00 Holy f####! I made exactly the same argument in 2020. And you really can see that here in Germany. There’s definitely a labor cost inflation for entry level professionals, I’m entry level, my dad is manager in the broader technology consulting sphere. An extremely people driven business. He is having problems attracting and holding juniors, despite attractive compensation, a good working environment etc…, while I see some weird competition for good candidates. Salaries will keep rising nominally, but progressive tax rates will eat up a lot of income thanks to cold progression. A bit of a bad place to work now.
It's great to see Patrick on this channel. I feel this was a pretty good session, as a Malaysian, where I agree with Patrick is Malaysia will take the same stance with India, trade with everyone. Where I think my thoughts diverge is on the topics of BRICS, I don't think people feel only "uneasy" with the USD, I feel it's MUCH stronger than "uneasy", at least that is my opinion. He's right it's not a position of taking US or China side, it's that Unipolar world order is no longer acceptable, and a DUOpolar argument is also not an palatable option, small countries such as Malaysia will group with ASEAN which represents a larger trade bloc, which shields us from Unipolar or Duopolar pressure, Malaysia stance will likely be towards a multi-polar position, in this Patrick is 100% right, small countries will side with themselves first.
Unipolar world is 'no longer acceptable'? Well the non-Western countries need to get their act together regarding corruption, nepotism and sheer incompetence then, because nobody is going to give it to them on a plate.
People always take the piss out of using demographics to make economic predictions on the basis it is "overly simplistic", but from my experience, it's one of the only axes of analysis that reliably leads me to predictions that wind up aligning with reality.
People here correctly identify that Patrick is very knowledgeable but I also find him very reflective. For example, on Brexit, he correctly points out that other people will have different perspectives from him most people don't really recognise that they are in a bubble.
He's an intelligent man for sure, but that doesn't keep him from being full of shit sometimes. His orthodox views are completly at odds with what's happening in the the world right now. With the growing scarcity of ressources, the skyrocketing levels of US foreign debt, and the sheer violence and intransigence of the western foreign policy, the dollar is simply becoming an existencial threat for many countries around the world ! BRICS countries, whose work and ressources are needed to support western growth, are therefore bound to become way fiercer than any of us can imagine.
I really like patrick's understanding of information. I would read and catch myself up with the news ... And then hear what patrick's take on those news; should he decided to make a vid on the topic xD
I lived in China for 3 years and I came to the conclusion that it's a hype. Yes they've achieved a lot with the train system but... that's just one aspect of a massive massive country which half the population live on less than a few hundred dollars a month. The thing which shocked me was how shoddily many things are actually done and there's a word for it "chabuduo" which means "just good enough". And no one takes responsibility because no one wants to lose face Chinese nationalism is also extreme and if wars starts, it will get really nasty
KL is an amazing city, I agree with that. However China did not open up 20 to 30 years ago. It did so in 1979, that's 44 years ago and the early money came mainly from HK, I was part of it. I follow Patrick and think highly of him. This was not one of his better interviews, he needs to spend some time IN China to learn. It's a bit obvious that he's not as knowledgeable about China as he is in other areas, his remarks when he was talking about China and BRICS was also a bit questionable, he should talk to leaders in various African countries and see what they think of Chinese vs. US partnerships. Perhaps Nomad Capitalist can set Patrick up in Shanghai?
Patrick is so intelligent and knowledgeable. He can talk high-value content as a constant stream for 3/4 of an hour. Andrew does a good job as interviewer - essentially letting Patrick run with it - but is fairly limited on the deep knowledge front...
Yeah. I also feel like some of Patrick's humor went right above Andrew's hate. Maybe he just doesn't find it funny or maybe he is missing the required knowledge to understand the references
I'm not worried about BRICS, I'm worried FOR BRICS, I'm surprised they exists considering all sorts of problems they have, most iconic is the fued between India and China.
Any organisation that thinks it can have both Iran and Saudi Arabia as members and everything will be fine is either stupid or delusionally optimistic. It’s hilarious watching BRICS enlarge in such a way that would ensure it’s impotence in the future. India hates China, Russia resents China and the Chinese don’t have any great love for either. It’s an alliance of convenience- which is as good as not having much of an alliance at all. (And Brazil - it’s telling how little we or anyone talk about Brazil let alone South Africa which literally can’t keep the lights on.)
On the part about relocating for work, while they mostly focus on culture being the main factor I believe it is mostly economic. Not that moving is totally unaffordable, but unless you have a job lined up it is incredibly risky, but more importantly if you move away from family you lose your childcare, which is completely unfeasible to afford on low income, you are basically working all day to pay someone to watch your child with barely anything left. Great video though thank you.
I like Patrick, his views make sense. First time watching - the interviewer certainly says some unique takes - and given this should be a finance channel,.some interesting gaps.
So if a person would not trust the currency of any individual country in BRICS, why is an aggregate currency going to be more reliable? The dollar has problems as does the Euro, but is a combination of rupee, yuan, ruple and Brazilian Peso ever going to be preferable?
Aiyah! He was here in Malaysia , especially KL? I missed him! Love his dry-humour takes on all financial matters! Hope Patrick enjoyed his stay in KL 🙏👌
It is absolutely true that people are reluctant to move for much obvious increases in opportunity. I have moved across the country multiple times for all of my jobs and when I mention that people seemed impressed or find it unusual, while I found it to be pretty unremarkable since I just saw it as what I had to do.
Hi Andrew, it was a pleasure meeting you and the team at Nomad Capitalist in Malaysia. Hopefully your viewers will enjoy our conversation. Patrick
Love the fact that your general demeanor off the cuff is exactly the same as your videos. Just a genuine sense of humor and clear intellectual engagement
Awesome thank you guys
Great session. I always learn from your perspective...
Make a podcast dammit!
You're the best finance RUclipsr, why wouldn't we enjoy the conversation?
Patrick's dry sense of humor is priceless. Extremely smart and equally funny.
What on earth do you mean. Patrick is always very serious and never makes jokes. He has said so himself several times.
He is the type to hear people laughing at something he said and look around and say " That wasn´t a joke, that was not meant to be funny"
Patrick once made Chuck Norris laugh. Then told him it wasn't a joke
"Thats like winning the beauty contest at a burn ward"
You know
Never expected to see Patrick on this channel! Patrick is one of the best RUclipsr when it comes to the financial industry content. He worked as a quant & he is now a professor in King's College London
There are too many influencers around youtube without any technical background in the subject talking about China/US and global economy. It is good to hear someone who actually knows what he is talking about
No body knows when it comes to China. Not even the no 1 in China because of how the system works. @@1queijocas
@@1queijocas if you're looking for anyone else, I would also recommend Aswath Damodaran. He's a professor at NYU. He posts all of his lectures online for his two classes, Corporate Finance and Valuation. I should warn you that some of his lectures are a bit boring, but that's par for the course, quite literally.
Just started watching, but I'm stoked for 40 minutes of Patrick!
@@davidc4408 i still don't get where the "problem" is here. Teaching without the need for money is the best situation a teacher can be in. They can teach because they enjoy it and if they're not allowed to teach the way they want they can walk away and go somewhere else that will let them.
Only 40 minutes?? Come on guys surely we can make this a weekly podcast as I could listen to this for hours.
Stay tuned for another exciting interview next Sunday!
Absolutely an Excellent Proposal!
Hear Hear! These guys are well dressed, and present a good image well also.
@@nomadcapitalist The fact that Trump is the only critic of imperialism known to our host Andrew Henderson unfortunately shows Henderson to be a vapid uneducated git.
@@busyrand He's not worried about BRICS, but the Legos are a different Matter:P
I love Patrick's content. It's fun to see him work "off script" to get his more visceral reactions to things.
he still has his blind spots and biases, which is borderline delusional and unreliable. he can teach about the basics of finance, but that's about it.
Pleased that Patrick admitted that he lives in a bubble of rich people and one has to be careful about extrapolating any opinion from his circle to the wider population. The trouble with hedge fund managers in general is they only live and see the rich person's perspective. They are as bad as economists at assuming every single decision made by an individual is based on a monetary assessment. People make emotional choices first and foremost. Great data point from Patrick about mobility, quite contradictory to the attempted assertion that everyone will move to where the taxes are lowest. Which in turn is a nice illustration of emotion taking precedence over analysis.
Emotions are key to finding out who you really are and what personal evolution is required.. we have a long way to go but things are coming together fast in the information age. Exciting times, nothing to fear but fear (entropy)
Yeah this is true. The Western assumptions about Chinese rail transport are also dangerous. I can tell you personally that inter provincial Chinese trains are consistently packed and sold out.
@@bonquaviusdingle5720Doesn't mean they are making money.
@@rapier1954 the US interstate highway system also doesn't turn a profit, and whose coat of operation is comparable to that of Chinese HSR - does that make the interstate system a failure?
@@XDTape the US interstate highway system lack of maintenance will become a liability soon. @bonquaviusdingle5720 Chinese HSR is a public service that the public use, not a cash generator.
Awesome interview. This guy knows his stuff, and throws in that wit which is just hilarious, while still learning something. Thanks to all involved with this interview.
The analogy with the heart patient, who has been living for 5-10 years on a system is so good. Company leaders have forgotten how basic things work.
Always good to hear Patrick's wisdom.
Liked before watching. Very good guest and I would love hearing the intelligent questions from the host with the intelligent answers from the guest.
Glad you liked it!
Two of my favourite finance experts!!
Love Patrick and follow him too!!
Brilliant interview, thanks guys!
Thank you!
im a noob on this, but is interesting that they seems to see China as a place to invest, and i think that was in the past, China is now investing in other places, i think they are seeing things from the wrong perspective, China is now in the other side, and they are doing it much much better than the west.
Wow! Patrick Boyle with Nomad Capitalist in my country. Welcome to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Mr. Boyle. I am your subscriber.
The railroad situation in the past in the US is a great example. I used to go to a private supper club where the bathroom walls were papered with stock certificates from defunct railroads.
Loved the closing lines "its like winning the beauty contest but in the burns ward of the hospital".
So level headed practical down to earth and wicked smart , love this guy nice to see him from a different angle
Totally agree. Patrick is fantastic
I'm a big fan of Patrick Boyle. He is one of the very very few financial youtubers that when they speak I listen intently. It is rare for me to listen to someone as much as I have to Patrick about financial topics and have never once said "well that was just wrong". I've disagreed with a statement, only one statement which is still impressive to me, from Nomad Capitalist but not from Boyle.
On his own channel, Patrick can show a dry British sense of humor too when he does his channel.
@@theodorehsu5023that kind of statement can get you into a bar fight! Irish guys usually hate being confused with the English/ British even if it’s a bit like distinguishing between a Dane and a Norwegian.
@@MrBlaxjax Good thing I am not in the United Kingdom then, because I would have to duck and dodge then.
@@theodorehsu5023 my favorite quote from Boyle is something like "I wouldn't say that because it wouldn't be nice and I pretend to be nice on this channel" 🤣
That's funny because Patrick disagrees with Nomad Capitalist a few times in this video, so if you agree with Patrick then it has to be more than once.
good to see two great RUclipsrs together in a room (vs. a audio-lagged video call)
That is where listening to it at 1.75X or 2X helps....... 🙂 I don't have 40 mins spare 🙂
Did not expect to see Patrick on this channel! Epic
" If you pay a guy to dig a hole and another to fill it in thats GDP " . What a line !
You realize that's been said before. It's not an original thought.
‘Not awfully positive on the economy of China at the moment’. Classic understatement!
That's our Patrick - measured understatement occasionally frosted with tender sarcasm.
@@Longtack55 and throwing in the occasional dry jab
I couldn’t disagree more ! China has a tremendous future !
Come and have a look.
Beijing has incredible prosperity
I don't think that this guy knows anything about China.
@@maxflight777 The Chinese are good mathematicians and physicists. Firms over there put a lot of money into research and the education is top-notch.
Thank you so much for having Patrick on! Exceptional content creator 👏 👌 I can confirm Patrick's statement about our TV channels. 80s baby- I was almost called Charlene (the poison dwarf from Dallas). Bless 80s Dublin ❤
You can tell just by listening to Patrick that he is very well read, and understands the world very well. Great guy.
But he never mentions colonialism or Opium Wars. Only communism. He has a political agenda and doesn't stick to fact: he is a neocon more than an economist.
Really? 😂😂
I’ve learned so much from Patrick over the years.. Really appreciate his insights
Great guest. Love Boyle, watch his stuff all the time.
Wow, what a Collab!
Was not expecting this, but certainly happy to see it .
Thank you guys! Very interesting talk.
As always, a great pleasure to listen to Patrick.
This is exactly what autocratic empires experienced: you get one emperor who made a good, smart decision, and then subsequent emperors are incompetent and destroy what was built.
They are incapable of learning, and they can't be replaced.
i am rolling my eyes, you know what confucisusism is about? It is about intellectuals gaslighting emperor on what equality he should have, and what he should do. China was ruled by intellectuals groups since Song dynasty, emperor was just a symbol. You really believe one man can rule one of the largest and long lasting empire? Go learn some history.
On the subject of Americans not moving "as much as it makes financial sense" the level of disconnect from people doing regular jobs is insane. Most people don't have savings enough to just up sticks and move, and the most valuable asset is their family being nearby.
The weird people are the rootless classes with no attachments to the local areas.
Yea, Patrick is good at analyzing what rich people will do. Not so good at analyzing what other countries and working class will, as they have a completely different economic, financial out look and social mores, and priorities. For example, China deliberately pop their real estate bubble and refuse to bail out the overleveraged developers, making sure the home buyers and suppliers get their stuff first and let the vulture investors have the scraps. Then they used this opportunity to diversify the entire country's economy away from real estate, and impose strict limits on developers. This is unheard of in the west, it broke every rule in their book and it boggles their minds and all they can do is keep saying it won't work, it won't work, it won't work.
Well, what do you know, taking care of your people first result in even higher approval ratings and the economy will eventually recover from the pivot and put energy in other useful sectors instead of useless and endless financial speculations. China is doing just fine because it does not work the same way as the western economies. Their policies and the actions will never be taken by western neoliberal capitalist governments and it is blowing the minds of western economists who have drank their own kool-aid on neoliberal economic dogmas.
@@gelinrefirawhat do you mean? They propped up their real estate bubble for ages, and when they finally did something about it, the general reaction was "Wow they're actual trying to solve it! Might be too late, but better now than never."
@@kanucks9 What a dumb take. They develop their real estate because they needed infrastructure so they invested in developing the capacity to build things. They had a purpose to it. Now the priorities have switch and they have excess building capacity, so they want to pared it down and invest the energy of the economy somewhere, and to prevent a bubble from popping uncontrollably, so they did something about.
Your take is completely backward, and smack of bad faith.
@@kira-le9qr Yawn... if you stop watching western fake news, you would have know those "ghost cities" were planned for influx of people coming to the cities to find work. Those buildings are filled up now.
Be better. Stop watching western corpo-state media propaganda.
China is winning because they can plan their economy and steer it in the right direction. The US is losing because the neolibs are sucking up all the capital.
Cope.
I'm sure all those millions that migrated on ships to America had lots of savings to "just up sticks and move", so did countless millions that moved countries within the EU for economic reasons.
The only savings you absolutely need to be able to move is to have enough for a one-way ticket and to survive until the first salary - I know, I moved cities within my country three times and moved to a different country twice.
Wowzers! Didn’t expect Patrick Boyle to be in Malaysia! Been following his content for a while, didn’t expect him to be in my country lol😅
That's why you should always attend our Live Event. It's full of surprises and exciting people! nomadcapitalist.com/live/
Wow! I didnt know Patrick Boyle was in KL. Would love to meet up with him in person.
The floating mortgage rate and 5 year terms are only really a problem when the price of housing is allowed to balloon out of control. If the underlying price is remains anchored by wages, it's a much more equitable policy because you don't win the lottery by buying a house at a certain point in time and locking in low rates. But that's a big IF.
What's funny is that I love his deadpan, but I actually also love seeing him get the opportunity to laugh at his own jokes. Because they're really funny.
Patrick is insightful as always, with one glaring exception: the reason the train tracks were ripped up is from the car companies buying up these tracks, ripping them out, and convincing the government to build roads instead. They successfully lobbied and made themselves integral to infrastructure planning and ensured this car centric design was the ONLY thing that was invested in moving forward. Train access should be much better in the US, and the road should be far less subsidized than they are.
Nope
Ehh that’s partially true. Your thinking of the electric light rails. I think he is talking more about the longer distance tracks used for both passenger and freight. Planes impacted longer distance train travel substantially. Containers allowed shipping and trucking to compete better with rail and reduced which rail routes are profitable. Car companies gad a roll but it wasn’t everything.
Details matter
Not only car companies but oil companies played a major role during great new deal when they are building up the Highways. To maximize your profit, you need more trucks on the road not rail tracks. Nothing happens suddenly/trendy in economies or politics, everything is calculative. Dealers and brokers create markets.
@@adeyemi8730 your pointis what I've been saying to my friends: "you don't wait for demand in Capitalism, you MAKE the demand".
And as a Communist, the Chinese, for me, hitted the jackpot - the infrastructure projects there helped not on the short term economic growth, but on the long term, the results are even impossible to predict, but are always on the positive.
Huge kudos to Andrew for being an excellent interviewer. You prompted Prof. Boyle with great questions, let him flesh out his arguments and let the conversation flow and evolve organically. Truly a pleasure to listen to. It also doesn't hurt that I could listen to Prof. Boyle for hours 😁
As an observer of China since 1980, and now an investor, I came to the same general conclusions that Patrick has. A couple of years ago my investing teacher was wanting to go big into Chinese stocks as they were declining He even sent his analysts over to China to learn more about the companies he was interested in. What he missed learning about was still hidden by the nature of their society, their government and by barriers they intentionally operate behind. My warning to him took a while to sink in. After starting a new position in one stock more Chinese dominos fell and he saw what I have been seeing for years. The story in China is radically different now compared to what it was 4 tears ago. Rarely is there ever just one event that changes an investment thesis. Patrick is good at seeing the while picture and is good at knowing when the thesis has changed and new strategy is required.
So you are now a billionaire due to your wise investments?
Chinas growth since 1980 to now is a miracle basically, unseen and unmatched by any country. You can talk about corruption, hiding numbers, bubbles and this and that, but you can't deny that china has gone from nothing into a superpower in like 40 years, 70 max when modern China was founded in 1949 and CPC took power.
So I don't see what your point is, China did great and is still doing great. Even if the gov completely collapsed tomorrow and had zero gdp and zero growth, it's accomplishments and China's advancement over the last 40-70 years cannot be denied. The infrastructure, education, technology and everything else would still exist, and if China can go from absolute poverty with zero tech and economy, zero literacy rate, 30-35 year life expectancy and half the countries population still being opium addicts in 1949 to what they are now, they can easily do it again when they are starting from an exponentially higher starting place. They've already done all the hard work like education and have 98%+ literacy rate(India still 70% for context/comparison), have higher life expectancy than even USA now, zero drug addicts, and technology level that can only be rivalled by USA, with China leading already in many specific sectors and technologies.
But I digress. Playing stocks anywhere is a risk and is literally gambling, and a country as big, complex, and diverse as china of course would have risk, same as any other country. If anything, China's system allows for much more predictability and stability since their gov doesn't change and their policies don't flip flop every 4 years in every direction.
The gov also means what they say, and more importantly, they actually achieve and accomplish all their plans and policies. The only time this isn't true is if the policy itself was wrong to begin with, and the gov will change their policies accordingly. But this is a gradual process, and China always tests out new tech or policies at small scale first and only if successful on village level, will it proceed to move to city, then province, then national etc.
Imo most westerners or foreigners in general have little to no real understanding of Chinese society, government, system, culture, etc etc. Most don't even know enough about their own countries system, gov etc to be making valid criticisms, let alone offer alternatives to improve on the current situation/system/policies.
@@ex0duzz Do you see the Chinese economy as doing well right now?
@@joephysics5469 it has its problems just as any country but in general, 5% growth of 20 trillion dollar economy(forecasted to continue for 2-3 decades at least) with 8 trillion in foreign reserves and 1-2% inflation would be considered doing well for any country. In fact if USA had 5% growth it would be considered a miracle and doing great. Even 4% or 3% would be considered great, let alone 5% and 1-2% inflation. USA is like 8-10% inflation, and only 1-2% growth. And that is already considered reasonably good, although not great. If it was just 2% growth and 1-2% inflation then that is good, but not with 8-10% inflation.
Any further out than 2-3 decades is too far and anything can happen from now to then so I won't comment too much about that.
Also, Chinese leaders are capable, the country is united, isn't in any wars, and due to their political system and unity and smart capable leaders, I am confident that any problems can be rectified where if they happened to western liberal democracy, it would be a catastrophy that would cripple them. For china it will maybe slow them down and they will have like 3-4% growth instead of 5%.
Just see Ukraine war. They couldn't even cripple Russian economy, China protected Russia from the worst effects and now eu trade is being replaced by China, while eu cannot replace Russia and thus is taking more losses than Russia. It also pushed Russia completely into Chinas open arms which was the dumbest move ever for usa. Brezinsky must be rolling in his grave. And Kissinger too if he was dead. 😂
@@ex0duzz That sounds nice and fuzzy . You could be right. Most American Wall Street types get their information from the same places and few ever do better than someone who just buys an S&P 500 etf.
@@ex0duzz china has great development but don't think westerners can make money on chinese stocks. its opaque and control of govt . good example Alibaba and its founder which has hit dust in terms of price 😢
Brilliant discussion, I always learn something from Patrick.
Great interview. I was curious about the comment towards the end regarding “lots of countries” in Europe outside of EU. Seems to me that the list is quickly dwindling unless you include some of the remaining Balkan states that have not been swept up.
holy s***. Two of my favorite people together. 👍💯💪 Great talk together. Hopefully you do it yearly.
Never thought of see Sir Patrick here, but I love it! 🤩
18:00 Holy f####! I made exactly the same argument in 2020. And you really can see that here in Germany. There’s definitely a labor cost inflation for entry level professionals, I’m entry level, my dad is manager in the broader technology consulting sphere. An extremely people driven business. He is having problems attracting and holding juniors, despite attractive compensation, a good working environment etc…, while I see some weird competition for good candidates. Salaries will keep rising nominally, but progressive tax rates will eat up a lot of income thanks to cold progression. A bit of a bad place to work now.
Patrick Boyle is a fantastic presenter
Always love to listen to Patrick. Using his own words…it is very interesting❤
Happy to see Patrick here. Great content!
Always like to hear Patrick's view of the world economy, finance and culture.
It's great to see Patrick on this channel. I feel this was a pretty good session, as a Malaysian, where I agree with Patrick is Malaysia will take the same stance with India, trade with everyone. Where I think my thoughts diverge is on the topics of BRICS, I don't think people feel only "uneasy" with the USD, I feel it's MUCH stronger than "uneasy", at least that is my opinion.
He's right it's not a position of taking US or China side, it's that Unipolar world order is no longer acceptable, and a DUOpolar argument is also not an palatable option, small countries such as Malaysia will group with ASEAN which represents a larger trade bloc, which shields us from Unipolar or Duopolar pressure, Malaysia stance will likely be towards a multi-polar position, in this Patrick is 100% right, small countries will side with themselves first.
Unipolar world is 'no longer acceptable'? Well the non-Western countries need to get their act together regarding corruption, nepotism and sheer incompetence then, because nobody is going to give it to them on a plate.
Awesome, big fan of both channels. Excellent crossover 😁
Glad to hear that!
Fantastic Guest, great podcast!
Thanks for watching!
Glad to see more variety in the channel content. Macroeconomics matter.
People always take the piss out of using demographics to make economic predictions on the basis it is "overly simplistic", but from my experience, it's one of the only axes of analysis that reliably leads me to predictions that wind up aligning with reality.
Zeihan's career in a nutshell
Patrick doesn't appear to live in a bubble because he's conscious of the fact he does. Gotta remember that
Still lives in a bubble to me
Patrick is a real one.
This was so good! Just love listening to Patrick
Always great to hear Patrick. Great analysis with a great sense of humor.
People here correctly identify that Patrick is very knowledgeable but I also find him very reflective. For example, on Brexit, he correctly points out that other people will have different perspectives from him most people don't really recognise that they are in a bubble.
He's an intelligent man for sure, but that doesn't keep him from being full of shit sometimes. His orthodox views are completly at odds with what's happening in the the world right now.
With the growing scarcity of ressources, the skyrocketing levels of US foreign debt, and the sheer violence and intransigence of the western foreign policy, the dollar is simply becoming an existencial threat for many countries around the world ! BRICS countries, whose work and ressources are needed to support western growth, are therefore bound to become way fiercer than any of us can imagine.
Wait a minute!... Two of my favorite economic RUclipsrs?... Awesome!
Wow, thanks!
EXCELLENT INTERVIEW
Thanks!
Always nice to see Patrick
This was better than expected thanks gents.
Awesome - didn't know you guys were taking this direction. More please!
Great interview. Thankyou for that discussion.
Thanks for watching!
FANTASTIC interview, what an interesting guest
We agree!
I really like patrick's understanding of information. I would read and catch myself up with the news ... And then hear what patrick's take on those news; should he decided to make a vid on the topic xD
Wow i love this interview, glad to see patrick on your channel.
Glad you enjoyed it!
This is awesome, two of my favorite RUclipsrs in the same video! Was not expecting that collab
Blown away by Patrick. Genius is a term thrown around all too often but he is a genius.
First time i've seen patrick from the side
Patrick is such a treasure, thanks for giving him the long form interview spot! awesome listen
I lived in China for 3 years and I came to the conclusion that it's a hype. Yes they've achieved a lot with the train system but... that's just one aspect of a massive massive country which half the population live on less than a few hundred dollars a month. The thing which shocked me was how shoddily many things are actually done and there's a word for it "chabuduo" which means "just good enough". And no one takes responsibility because no one wants to lose face
Chinese nationalism is also extreme and if wars starts, it will get really nasty
What do you mean, digging a hole and filling it back in doesn't work? here in my country we've been doing it for decades.
Cheers from Argentina!
KL is an amazing city, I agree with that. However China did not open up 20 to 30 years ago. It did so in 1979, that's 44 years ago and the early money came mainly from HK, I was part of it. I follow Patrick and think highly of him. This was not one of his better interviews, he needs to spend some time IN China to learn. It's a bit obvious that he's not as knowledgeable about China as he is in other areas, his remarks when he was talking about China and BRICS was also a bit questionable, he should talk to leaders in various African countries and see what they think of Chinese vs. US partnerships. Perhaps Nomad Capitalist can set Patrick up in Shanghai?
I could listen to this for hours.
PB as a guest = new sub. Glad to find the channel and looking forward to digging in.
Thanks and welcome!
Great interview. Love this guy.
Patrick Boyle on Nomad Capitalist. great video!
Patrick is so intelligent and knowledgeable. He can talk high-value content as a constant stream for 3/4 of an hour. Andrew does a good job as interviewer - essentially letting Patrick run with it - but is fairly limited on the deep knowledge front...
Yeah. I also feel like some of Patrick's humor went right above Andrew's hate. Maybe he just doesn't find it funny or maybe he is missing the required knowledge to understand the references
Patrick is levels above.
Just say quality content. High value sounds like something alpha males would say 😂
He can't even multiply 8x8 in his head.
Very true,but those guys in Beijing seem to be smarter
I'm not worried about BRICS, I'm worried FOR BRICS, I'm surprised they exists considering all sorts of problems they have, most iconic is the fued between India and China.
Any organisation that thinks it can have both Iran and Saudi Arabia as members and everything will be fine is either stupid or delusionally optimistic. It’s hilarious watching BRICS enlarge in such a way that would ensure it’s impotence in the future. India hates China, Russia resents China and the Chinese don’t have any great love for either. It’s an alliance of convenience- which is as good as not having much of an alliance at all. (And Brazil - it’s telling how little we or anyone talk about Brazil let alone South Africa which literally can’t keep the lights on.)
As a Brazilian, this is a very important topic - but I hope the common prosperity helps in easing such problems.
Same argument can be extended to UN!
Love Patrick. Great interview.
Great video. What a wise man
patrick is one of the best in the business.
What a guest... Love it
Patrick is the man!
good conversation topic, great camera angle for you
Patrick Boyle, your best guest so far...
On the part about relocating for work, while they mostly focus on culture being the main factor I believe it is mostly economic. Not that moving is totally unaffordable, but unless you have a job lined up it is incredibly risky, but more importantly if you move away from family you lose your childcare, which is completely unfeasible to afford on low income, you are basically working all day to pay someone to watch your child with barely anything left. Great video though thank you.
PB in the house!
As always Patrick analysis are just great,makes sense.. good interview
Patrick is my favorite finance nerd
Mr Patrick is very very good guest.
Looking good Patrick
Love the chat! Where was it filmed?
In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Patrick was a speaker at the Nomad Capitalist Live Event. You can join us next year: nomadcapitalist.com/live/
Patrick fan from Nepal🇳🇵
Looking forward to this
I'm a simple man. I see Patrick Boyle...i click.
I like Patrick, his views make sense. First time watching - the interviewer certainly says some unique takes - and given this should be a finance channel,.some interesting gaps.
I enjoyed the conversation. Thank you.
Our pleasure!
Excellent interview. Very informative. Thanks, Andrew.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Great stuff!
So if a person would not trust the currency of any individual country in BRICS, why is an aggregate currency going to be more reliable? The dollar has problems as does the Euro, but is a combination of rupee, yuan, ruple and Brazilian Peso ever going to be preferable?
Nope.
Aiyah! He was here in Malaysia , especially KL? I missed him! Love his dry-humour takes on all financial matters! Hope Patrick enjoyed his stay in KL 🙏👌
It is absolutely true that people are reluctant to move for much obvious increases in opportunity. I have moved across the country multiple times for all of my jobs and when I mention that people seemed impressed or find it unusual, while I found it to be pretty unremarkable since I just saw it as what I had to do.
Would you move overseas?