Problems with Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analyses of U.S. LNG Exports and Locally Produced Coal

By law, exports of natural gas must be in the public interest. On 26 January 2024 the Department of Energy (DOE) announced it was updating its public interest analysis, and pausing permitting of facilities allowed to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) while this update is underway. An important element of the public interest analysis is an assessment of the contribution of LNG to global climate change. A 2019 National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) life cycle analysis found that use of U.S. LNG results in lower overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than locally produced coal or Russian pipeline gas. The NETL study has been called into question by Robert W. Howarth (Cornell) who found that life cycle GHG emissions from U.S. LNG equals or exceeds that of locally sourced coal. Howarth’s study has been publicized in the mainstream media, including the New Yorker magazine. Bloomberg reported that it attracted attention in the White House, contributing to the decision to pause DOE permitting of new LNG projects. Examination of the technical details of both reports reveals that NETL selected methods and data that favor gas, while Howarth selected methods and data that favor coal. Both groups used the Global Warming Potential / carbon dioxide equivalent assessment method, which can be misleading. These results argue for better analytical methods, as described in this report
Robert L. Kleinberg is Senior Research Scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy and Senior Fellow at the Boston University Impact Measurement and Allocation Program. His current interests include energy technology and economics, and environmental and regulatory issues associated with the oil and gas industry. From 1980 to 2018 Dr. Kleinberg was employed by Schlumberger, the premier oilfield service company, attaining the rank of Schlumberger Fellow, one of about a dozen to have held this rank in a workforce of 100,000. From 1978 to 1980 he was a post-doctoral fellow at the Exxon Corporate Research Laboratory. Dr. Kleinberg was educated at the University of California, Berkeley (B.S. Chemistry, 1971) and the University of California, San Diego (Ph.D. Physics, 1978). Dr. Kleinberg has authored more than 200 academic and professional papers, holds 41 U.S. patents, and has invented several geophysical instruments that have been commercialized on a worldwide basis. He has testified to the United States Congress on greenhouse gas measurement and is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering.

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The decay rate of methane in the atmosphere will also depend upon the absolute concentration - about 600 ppb (C-600). The rate of biological removal increases linearly up to 0.1% methane in the air. You will see this as a decreasing lifetime in the atmosphere which is an instability not included in the thinking on this subject.
Some of the emission data on oil fields is very suspect. For example an aerial survey of So. California will include all the natural methane seeps. These natural seeps provided a lot of business for SCS engineers decades ago and had nothing to do with the oil/gas industry. People who live in So. Calif. have all visited the La Brea Tar pits as children. You get to see all the ice age animals' bones trapped in these natural oil seeps. You see bubbles of methane in the oil even today.
One of the major hold-ups in building our underground transit line in LA was the incompetent design relative to natural methane seeps that they discovered could make explosive concentrations with their design. They had a high permeability area between the inner wall and the dirt. Any leak in the inner water could be fed by any seep along the whole path.
These leak numbers like 3% or 5% leaks are insane. Just look at the billions of dollars worth of gas involved with any significant leak and the explosion hazards associated with even 0.001% leak on a major line. All the household lines that are small enough to have leaks without blowing up the house (not as common as half a century ago) have pipelines pressure-tested as per building codes. You must pressurize the line with a pressure gauge and it can't lose pressure.
Remember leaks are point sources but seeps are all over the place. Putting a plastic barrier under a house on a sand layer above the soil with venting to a permanently light torch was common in Newport Beach.