Impromptu Rivian Analysis in Japan with Jfilche
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- Опубликовано: 28 сен 2024
- So much to scheme on after Rivian earnings. Had to do an off the cuff rant with Jfilche about our thoughts on earnings, cash flow, dilution and the R2. Still holding my tiny Rivian position but not hyped on the results :( more analysis comin soon!
I appreciate that you are able to quickly change your mind when new evidence presents. Many cannot.
Exceptionally important!!!;)
I think it proves just how insanely difficult it is to ramp an auto company to profitability at large scale. Almost all legacy makers haven't been able to achieve profitability at scale with EVs. Rivian and Lucid haven't either. BYD seems like the only one that's remotely close, but all pale in comparison to what Tesla has achieved thus far. Layer on FSD getting to level 4, and it's tough to see an outcome that's different from Tesla capturing almost all profits, with BYD trying to figure out how to steal some of it away over time with government backing.
It's looking like iPhone & Samsung - Auto Edition the further we go IMO.
So real. When Elon says the auto business sucks he really meant it. Seeing it play out with every EV startup… insanely capital intensive train wreck of a business model
the battery is the killer.. some tesla's have 1 tonne of battery. That cost currently is not avoidable.
Tesla committing early to make their batteries in-house with Panasonic and choosing the cheapest form factor was a very important decision.
Rivian and Lucid are basically hothouse flowers that depend on permanent fertilization with the billions of dollars of investor's that were lead to believe they would be the next Tesla. They are cash incinerators.
BYD coming out with new, cheaper EVs all the time. And improving battery tech. Tesla is like a snail in comparison.
Thanks for the update Gali, and please dont shy away from videos that showcase how much we can learn from our investments that DONT pan out, or go to zero. A huge part of investing is learning from our mistakes (what did we miss, what market did we read wrong), and using that wisdom to refine our analysis going foreward. Generating consistent, double digit returns is HARD, almost impossible, and we are all gonna make some wrong calls, and loose some money along the way. People need to understand that part of the journey too, but thats the part most youtubers dont have the balls to own up to. Keep grinding Gali
💪💪💪
Gali, Can you do a video comparing TESLA - vs - VW - vs - BYD?
Financials and overall evolution.
Like an elaborate in depth with mainstreet data financials video. Thank you!🙏
Thanks for your updates Gali! Enjoy 🇯🇵🇯🇵🇯🇵🏯🎌
I am! Such an amazing place
Rivian exists today because they IPOed at an incredibly perfect time. They raised a huge pile of cash at peak hype. Now, it looks like they haved burned though much of that cash. If they survive, they will need to sell more stocks or debt. I expect more dilution in a year or sooner.
Why did you buy Rivian shares when you have remarked in the past that the automotive industry is the worse to be in? Seemed like an odd portfolio buy when you already hold Tesla. Holding both Tesla and Rivian is too much exposure. It's very rare for new entrants to survive. Tesla barely survived at first and they had Elon at the helm.
I was being dumb
Interest rates are messing with all the vehicle manufacturer's, were going to find out who has deep enough pockets to survive.
Tough times to sell a $100k toy no one needa
I guess you don't understand how disruptions work out...
Here's a rule never invest in a company that isn't cashflow positive.
Everything Gali is saying about Rivian is also true of Tesla! 1) Flat revenues 2) Price reductions 3) Worse margins 4) Lower earnings.
Add as a spec play after dilution
Yea if cashflow approaches default alive and market cap is like $3B with $3B book equity, could be a buy
Yes yourself and chicken genius have been totally wrong on Rivian and Snap as well 😢
A good saying I once heard was nothing good ever happens under the 200 day.
Remember Tesla almost went broke at one point? It's a tough road to create a car company. Wondering what Amazon will do now.
They will make it I'm looking forward to gross profitability in Q4
RJ needs to do what Elon did during production hell😮
@@misterg4059 Yeah I could agree he also seems to have that motivation and fight but their company and ev adoption is much better positioned then when Tesla was cuase before nobody would touch an EV with a 10 foot pole.
Tesla needs to start selling their manufacturing if they want to continue their mission. Also advertising for Education. As a whole, the EV industry is hitting a wall. Education and brainwashing is what is needed next. Legacy has done this for years. Rivian and Tesla products are far superior, but no one knows. Literally AGAIN had to have a convo with someone, a cousin-in-law(is that a thing?), who said "I'm not opposed to EVs, but how are they in the cold? It gets cold up here". Referring to North Jersey. 🤷🏼
FSD is coming on strong
DCA bro…
Rivian: beautiful product; unrealistic business.
I like RJ; but he is not Elon. Just because TSLA eventually did it; doesn’t mean it’s remotely likely for anyone else.
Hopefully you didn't buy lcid
There is no sound on this clip.
I heard it loud and clear
I hear it fine
Arcimoto, Peloton, etc. So many horrible recommendations. Pump and dump or are you just incompetent?
What surprised me, iirc, is that they have only delivered 1000 vans and amazon ordered 100k which means they either can't make them which is hard to believe or they are holding back because they are losing big on each. Or amazon has changed its mind.. maybe 2 sides of the same cost premise. If that can't be solved that seems like a showstopper as well.
batteries are not that expensive now, it seems to me that it should be plenty possible to be profitable at their fairly high prices. Maybe they just have a lot of custom parts and have set themselves up with costly contracts for each. Body work, glass and electric drivetrain should be quite predictable and manageable. Like I said about 13k$ pack level for the smallest pack. Not an impossible cost item to hide in 70k base price.
Awesome points. Delivery van flop is being hidden somehow. Being able to sell the vans to everyone and Amazon this year should be amazing for growth… yet deliveries guidance is flat … and your dropping prices on R1S/T and introducing leasing and standard range models. Something doesn’t add up
@@HyperChangeTV thanks. looking forward to FSD v12 monorail test :)
Looks like someone is ready to be a Henson Shaving affiliate. ;)
R2T and RTS will have to be stripped of feature to break ever or make a profit. The bulls and thrilled owners don’t seem to appreciate they have a truck that should have cost $170,000+ that they paid $70k-$90k for.
I think folks will be shocked at what is deleted to make a $40k-$60k EV with a profit margin
Got to sacrifice something. Curious how much improvements at the factory level can fix this vs just sacrificing quality
@@HyperChangeTVI just don't see it, never have, even back in 2015 I didn't see how these companies would enter the market late and somehow compete with Tesla. The issue is that you cannot sell a super cheap interior trim car at Model Y prices with the Y readily available. Tesla will always have vertical integration, scale of production, technology of production advantages over Rivian. Just last quarter Tesla lowered their cost of production by over $1,000, and they have been doing that since 2020 for the Y and will keep lowering their cost of production through 2027 when Rivian reaches mass production of the R2.
If Rivian makes a great EV with the same trim level as the Y but more capable off road, they can charge $10,000 more than the Y costs, at most. But Rivian has no chance of manufacturing the R2 for within $10,000 of what Tesla makes the Y for in 2027.
All the reasons you correctly identified that made Tesla a good long term investment, those are reasons it super sucks to try to compete with Tesla for buyers.
And then by 2027 I am confident that Tesla will have level 5 FSD, do buyers prefer to never have to drive, or to have a car that they can go camping in every so often? Myself, I will just rent the R2 a few times a year.
In 4Q23, Rivian's gaap loss was $107.4k/vehicle. Rivian's situaion is beyond dire. in 4Q23, Rivian delivered 13,972 vehicles and reported a gaap loss of $1.5 bill. Rivian lost $107.4k per vehicle. Rivian needs to sell its cars for around $200k+ just to break even on a gaap basis. Almost impossible. And why Rivian is headed for certain bankruptcy
The R2 won't make any money either. It's a mass market vehicle, best case if they massively scale it then it might make small margins, no way enough to save the company. The mach-e is a good car for instance and totally tanked. Big mass market car companies like Toyota and VW have to have tonnes of different mass market cars at massive scale to make a small amount of money on each one to keep the company afloat.
Betting the farm on the R2 just shows how done they already are.
Don’t want to rule out R2 success yet, but even getting to break even will be a heroic task and that doesn’t justify a massive valuation
@@HyperChangeTVSuccess, fine, maybe they sell 250,000 a year, but at a loss most likely. If Rivian does a great job, the R2 will be a much more off road capable Model Y. What is the premium over the Model Y cost buyers will be willing to pay? Tesla has huge vertical integration advantages, scale of production advantages, technique of production advantages, and will easily be able to manufacture a Y for $20,000 less than Rivian can make the R2 for in 2027 when the R2 might reach volume production.
At the earliest, Rivian cannot possibly reach net profits before 2027 and even then it is very unlikely, in my opinion. Getting to the point of mass R2 production by my estimate requires an additional ten billion dollars over what they have on hand, will the market be willing to hand over that much more with profits highly theoretical?
Bro if you aren't holding Nvidia you are doing something wrong with your money
Easy to say that now
Wait no now's the bad time to buy
If you arnt selling NVDA now you are doing something wrong
@@InnovativeSustainableSolutions 🤣🤣🤣
@Smellindamix easy to say that in 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018 Nvidia has been doing very well 😁
Tesla was raising capital after model s the diff is the business environment is different. Not favorable to rivian at the moment. They should be cutting staff and hunkering down atm and focusing on production and completing the new factory in georgia.
Model S had a positive gross margin after a quarter or two of production, Tesla was always raising and spending more money to pay for R & D and building more production capacity. Rivian is burning huge amounts just producing their cars.
Don't be surprised if insiders starts saling like crazy, the CEO was shaking in he's interviewed and was trying to avoid answering the questions.
Bro, shave that thing off
😂
Maybe lol
Warren Buffet says, "Buy when there's blood on the streets" i'll take some more Rivian thanks
There are not that many buyers in the market at their price point, and they are targeting a niche of the putdoor adventure enthusiasts who can afford a high end luxury vehicle. I have no idea how they could have thought they would find 100,000 people in that niche every year, if that is what they thought.
The kind of major shutdown they are doing does suggest a major redesign. It also may be that some sections of the production line have been failing completely or often, as happened at Tesla with Model 3.
If the R2 is very capable off road with a really good range and so on, there will be buyers, but they still will have to come in within shouting range of the Model Y price, and that will be incredibly hard and make profits highly dubious. I don't share the common enthusiasm for the view that the R2 might save Rivian. They will have enormous coat of production disadvantages compared to Tesla.
With no affiliate program, little to no advertising, price points that regular americans cannot afford, all we can do is pray 🙏 as someone else who invested money and time into the company.
Is cashburn relevant with Amazon in the background? Rivian can get money from Amazon independent on stock price oder whatever. Amazon can keep Rivian alive until the figured out how to increase gros margin.
That's a mayor point isn't ,specially because owns almost a 20% ,we have here such a strong partnership, usually people forget when things get tough.But Rivian has all the potential to go successfully through headwind and the storm ,and big partner knows.
I don't understand why you bought it in the first place.. it just boggles my mind. TSLA is the king and the only EV company that knows how to generate revenue from EVs. I would never buy a TSLA competitor. Dude there are so many great hyper growth companies that you can add to that portfolio. SNOW CRWD MELI SHOP AMD CRM ENPH DDOG TTD ANET PANW etc etc
Basically Rivian and Lucid should have had both the Rt2 and Gravity respectively already prepared for production. If they are not ready now then Rivian might barely make it till then , but Lucid certainty wont make it.
Bro the mustache no beard is not the look.
All good stuff here. Gali, would love to hear your thoughts on Polestar. Owned by Geely (Chinese) whom also owns Volvo. Interesting to me that the Polestar seems to be the only Chinese made EV on American streets, and the stock is in the toilet. Would love to hear what you think about it
G and J. Ficlhe ? When did they get married
Day 1 homies
Now we know why amazon doesnt acquire them
They needed to launch the r2 before the R1T. It’s too late. Rip