Thank you for illustrating clearly how much human work is needed to produce the food consumed by an average consumer in a developed country. This reality has been hidden from us due to the oil based industrial agriculture and this is the reality that we will face when the oil market collapses. We need to prepare for this and other "great waves of change".
All your videos are awesome Chris, so much knowledge packed into such a short window and made so easy to understand. You are awesome for bringing this knowledge to the public domain. Kudos to you. It has been said that we will be 50 years past the point of no return with regard to global warming before we know it and the predictions by some of a sea level rise of 7m as a result of that is a 20% loss of land mass. But like the peak oil issue and technological advances in oil extraction also and what oil fields remain to be discovered in unexpected places, we cannot be certain of. The as and when of the bell curve roller coaster dip of oil we cannot predict with certainty. Perhaps in a way, the fact that CO2 laden fuels are on the decline it will save the planet from a worse case of global warming as necessity level and economics drive the viability of green alternatives to the fore. Electric vehicles - solar powered, blah, battery technology. Technology is there but the infrastructure investment and (all the energy that requires) is not.
Well ... having criticized Chapter 19, I must point out that Chapter 20 is very accurate and raises serious questions. My disagreement with Chapter 19 is the implication that wind or solar or other 'alt' technologies can do anything to resolve our energy problem - when in fact these sources have their own production and utilization curves (even pretending they have positive EROEI ratios, which they don't).
Never waste a good disaster.... Marshal law conditions here in Melbourne Australia. Don't know why people are so shocked and upset, vote for war criminals and this is what you get.
In a market economy, when supplies of a commodity such as oil go down, prices go up, leading to improvement in energy locating and extraction technologies -- which increases supplies -- and in the efficiency of everything that runs on it, which decreases demand. It also leads to substitution. Many of the products that are made from oil can also be made from natural gas, and manufacturers of everything from paint to polyethylene are retooling to make the switch. Electric cars can run on power generated by natural gas, or nuclear, solar, or wind for that matter. These are the reasons why there will never be that pessimist's dream moment when the modern world and the profligate lifestyles that drive it come crashing down because oil ran out. The most that could happen is that prices would rise. Even if energy costs doubled or tripled for the average consumer it would be no big deal, given how cheap energy actually is, and it would set off another round of innovation, substitution, and efficiency improvements that would bring them back down again.
The portion of the chart at 7:21 in the red rectangle doesn't actually look flat -- it just looks as if the vertical axis is poorly chosen. It clearly has trended up. Maybe this isn't anywhere near what it has been in the past, but this isn't depicted on the chart, either.
I enjoyed the comparison of one gallon of gas to the labor of one human! Humans better come up with another energy source or there will be some rough times ahead.
I'm onboard with the conclussions and it's a great video, but that said the predictions weren't stellar. World crude oil production soared to 100MB in 2019 and the 1970's us production peak has been surpassed. Again to be clear I think it';s a matter of time, and not much more time.
How’s about getting back to nature with small eco home using off grid 12v solar with compost loo, local food, grey water, ground heat pump, natural solar (glass windows orientated strategically), insulation , etc?
i would like to know if the comparison on investment in oil discovery has been inflation-adjusted. If not, then we are actually spending similar amount of money on that ?
I've been debating Peak Strawberry Margarita for years...unfortunately I think we've already peaked. People are now buying pre-made margarita mix. What does that say about the current Margarita supply? Taco night will never be the same.
But only for some time. Also you have to take into account that cities and suburbs in USA have been designed in such way that a lot of gasoline is needed for transportation, unlike Europe.
We will have to "discover" new energy sources and as I investigated Nikola Tesla has allready developed some "free energy" source (for electricity). For some reason it was suppressed and today we are still heavily dependent upon oil. When time comes we will have to make a shift. Hopefully that will not be too distruptive in a negative way.
The tricky part will be turning all that "energy" into petroleum based products such as plastics. The real problem is everything is tied to oil. The higher costs of that fluid is amplified by it's many uses. Oil is wealth in a very real way, in this consumer driven nightmare.
He said it's just a flash in the pan, and he's correct. The high production you see currently is resting on the shoulders of shale oil, but that will not last. Shale oil will likely peak in 2020-2021 because the wells depletion occurs much faster. ANd once shale oil reach it's peak, the shale oil bubble will burst and US economy will implode.
@Chris, I had a debate with my friend that solar is the replacement of cheap oil and that there are countries like Sweden which are running on Solar (He said 50%). What do you say to that?
Hi Chris, your message is stinging and for the most part undeniable. Thank you for sharing your insight and foresight. My question is, what do you hold against statements that oil can be substituted by another form of energy. I know that you stated that it would be irrational to think that it would be possible to substitute it by using nuclear or renewable energies. This would only work with electricity anyway. But what about the other sectors. For example, in your video you point out that about 70% of US oil is used for transportation. I assume a lot of people would say that we could meet that challenge by switching to gas or electricity operated engines. You could argument that there is not enough rare-metal-earths such as lithium, but some studies show that there should be a sufficient supply for about next 50 to 200 years or so. Gas run engines are already state of the art concerning cars and are in discussion for airplanes and ships. Electricity and heating theoretically could be generated by the renewables, leaving only the industrial sector. Would it in your opinion just take to long to replace these energy sources or am i missing something? Thanks for your answer.
You ve got a mistake, speaking of 1964 as a peak, and that now is 44 years later (roughly @8min)- just to let you know. It would fit to video from 2008 although :)
Oil prices are being manipulated down as a backstop for Europe economy. Oil is simply another tool for the Banksters to use to revive an economy along with Zero Interest Rates and QE.
Again the problem here - and which sparked vehement disagreement from my family - is that the focus on the technical problems and physical limitations are of greater concern than the political ones. But the decision to NOT discover oil and to NOT produce discovered oil is also tied to the decisions to 'rely' upon wind and solar 'power' sources ... which simply make certain fossil fuel producers incredibly rich. Solar and wind are essentially fossil fuel plays - to burn more fossil fuels faster and faster at higher and higher prices for the benefit of the most dangerous, malicious and murderous regimes on the planet ...
According to Forbes: "The Saudis are locked in a struggle with Iran for the control of the cartel, and the two countries now are playing a game of chicken over prices. Both said they intend to keep producing regardless of how far prices fall. Whose economy can hold out the longest? The Saudis are happy to take that bet. Saudi has more reserves, and while it needs higher oil prices to continue funding the kingdom’s vast and expanding social programs, it can hold out for a while.
I have to disagree with your point about technology not being an energy source. Yes, it doesn't literally create energy, but it's completely facetious to dismiss the possibility of creating *functional* energy where there was little before from energy. Most solar energy and wind energy is completely unharnessed; technological advances in solar panels would quite literally create *functional* energy.
I love your videos but technology CAN produce energy. Sun energy is free and increasing Solar efficiency gives more free energy. If we will be finally able to control nuclear fusion there is even bigger source of energy from very cheap energy source (hydrogen, you told also that it is never an energy source but in case of nuclear fusion it actually is) we cannot use now, so there are technologies that can save us.
It’s worth mentioning that by burning plastic, you create diesel fuel. Yep. The problem is that we’ve been lied to about the presuppositions this video rests on.
I think this one is missing the advancements in producing oil from algae. These micro-organisms are extremely efficient for converting sunlight energy and CO2 into a very similar compounds that can replace oil. I wouldn't be surprised if these technologies start occupying a tangible market share as soon as the price of oil starts climbing. Resources on earth are finite, but energy is not. The real problem is with storing that energy. So I disagree with this video on the assumption that technology can't save us all at least on that matter. It's pretty clear however that the price of oil will rise, although it could very well drop again over time as technologies improve, perhaps even further than we can imagine today.
Thank you for illustrating clearly how much human work is needed to produce the food consumed by an average consumer in a developed country. This reality has been hidden from us due to the oil based industrial agriculture and this is the reality that we will face when the oil market collapses. We need to prepare for this and other "great waves of change".
Well done Chris, keep up with the good work
Thank you Chris,that was most illuminating.And now,I'm going to watch it again.Thanks.
All your videos are awesome Chris, so much knowledge packed into such a short window and made so easy to understand. You are awesome for bringing this knowledge to the public domain. Kudos to you.
It has been said that we will be 50 years past the point of no return with regard to global warming before we know it and the predictions by some of a sea level rise of 7m as a result of that is a 20% loss of land mass. But like the peak oil issue and technological advances in oil extraction also and what oil fields remain to be discovered in unexpected places, we cannot be certain of. The as and when of the bell curve roller coaster dip of oil we cannot predict with certainty. Perhaps in a way, the fact that CO2 laden fuels are on the decline it will save the planet from a worse case of global warming as necessity level and economics drive the viability of green alternatives to the fore. Electric vehicles - solar powered, blah, battery technology. Technology is there but the infrastructure investment and (all the energy that requires) is not.
Thank you, so much for this Chris. Excellent video!!
Well ... having criticized Chapter 19, I must point out that Chapter 20 is very accurate and raises serious questions. My disagreement with Chapter 19 is the implication that wind or solar or other 'alt' technologies can do anything to resolve our energy problem - when in fact these sources have their own production and utilization curves (even pretending they have positive EROEI ratios, which they don't).
Nice video!
who is here after the oil crash of 2020 hidden by the global pandemic?
Never waste a good disaster....
Marshal law conditions here in Melbourne Australia.
Don't know why people are so shocked and upset, vote for war criminals and this is what you get.
Great explanation, very clear and very informative!
Thank you
Excellent video.
thank you for your videos! very informative, it would be great to see the references though. Good Luck!
Col Drake's first well in Pennsylvania is still producing after 150 years. It produces about a quart a day.
awesome video ! thank you!
In a market economy, when supplies of a commodity such as oil go down, prices go up, leading to improvement in energy locating and extraction technologies -- which increases supplies -- and in the efficiency of everything that runs on it, which decreases demand. It also leads to substitution. Many of the products that are made from oil can also be made from natural gas, and manufacturers of everything from paint to polyethylene are retooling to make the switch. Electric cars can run on power generated by natural gas, or nuclear, solar, or wind for that matter. These are the reasons why there will never be that pessimist's dream moment when the modern world and the profligate lifestyles that drive it come crashing down because oil ran out. The most that could happen is that prices would rise. Even if energy costs doubled or tripled for the average consumer it would be no big deal, given how cheap energy actually is, and it would set off another round of innovation, substitution, and efficiency improvements that would bring them back down again.
I hope you're right but fear you're not.
Point being we live in a finite planet. Only thorium looks to be up for the challenge. Potentially.
The portion of the chart at 7:21 in the red rectangle doesn't actually look flat -- it just looks as if the vertical axis is poorly chosen. It clearly has trended up. Maybe this isn't anywhere near what it has been in the past, but this isn't depicted on the chart, either.
Great explanation. Thanks
I enjoyed the comparison of one gallon of gas to the labor of one human! Humans better come up with another energy source or there will be some rough times ahead.
very clear thank you merci
Thxxx chris
I believe the "massive price spikes" will also turned out to be a wrong prediction, but as for the rest I am 100% onboard.
Are you sure?
Are you sure?
Excellent job! Could you provide sources in the description?
What do you thing about the oil price in April 2020 ?
Good luck trying to live in April 2020 conditions forever.
10:26 umm..is the color legend wrong on this graph?
I'm onboard with the conclussions and it's a great video, but that said the predictions weren't stellar. World crude oil production soared to 100MB in 2019 and the 1970's us production peak has been surpassed. Again to be clear I think it';s a matter of time, and not much more time.
How’s about getting back to nature with small eco home using off grid 12v solar with compost loo, local food, grey water, ground heat pump, natural solar (glass windows orientated strategically), insulation , etc?
i would like to know if the comparison on investment in oil discovery has been inflation-adjusted.
If not, then we are actually spending similar amount of money on that ?
Do you have any comment on the recent price drop in oil prices?
The exchange rate of the US $ has almost a direct correlation on the relative price of oil.
MrModelaer Something to do with "petro dollar" Iguess. :)
I've been debating Peak Strawberry Margarita for years...unfortunately I think we've already peaked. People are now buying pre-made margarita mix. What does that say about the current Margarita supply? Taco night will never be the same.
Now I want a margarita! 🧉😋
Conventional oil peaked in 2006. The IEA admitted it in it's global energy outlook of 2018
Now we have less Easy oil left?
If the US truck/automobile fleet would be swapped for fuel efficient european/asian cars and trucks, then the US could be oil independent tomorrow.
But only for some time. Also you have to take into account that cities and suburbs in USA have been designed in such way that a lot of gasoline is needed for transportation, unlike Europe.
@@VFatalis i think it's was an exaggerated joke
We will have to "discover" new energy sources and as I investigated Nikola Tesla has allready developed some "free energy" source (for electricity). For some reason it was suppressed and today we are still heavily dependent upon oil. When time comes we will have to make a shift. Hopefully that will not be too distruptive in a negative way.
The tricky part will be turning all that "energy" into petroleum based products such as plastics. The real problem is everything is tied to oil. The higher costs of that fluid is amplified by it's many uses. Oil is wealth in a very real way, in this consumer driven nightmare.
Please provide evidence for the Aether.
Free energy ? You're delusional. It's impossible.
What do you have to say about the recent all time high oil production in the USA?
He said it's just a flash in the pan, and he's correct. The high production you see currently is resting on the shoulders of shale oil, but that will not last. Shale oil will likely peak in 2020-2021 because the wells depletion occurs much faster. ANd once shale oil reach it's peak, the shale oil bubble will burst and US economy will implode.
@Chris, I had a debate with my friend that solar is the replacement of cheap oil and that there are countries like Sweden which are running on Solar (He said 50%). What do you say to that?
You can't replace oil with solar, it's impossible. Especially for transportation. Also Sweden does not rely on solar ! It's 40% hydro 40% nuclear.
Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s? Explains why The Beverly Hillbillies premiered in 1962.
Ha!
Hi Chris,
your message is stinging and for the most part undeniable. Thank you for sharing your insight and foresight.
My question is, what do you hold against statements that oil can be substituted by another form of energy. I know that you stated that it would be irrational to think that it would be possible to substitute it by using nuclear or renewable energies. This would only work with electricity anyway. But what about the other sectors. For example, in your video you point out that about 70% of US oil is used for transportation. I assume a lot of people would say that we could meet that challenge by switching to gas or electricity operated engines. You could argument that there is not enough rare-metal-earths such as lithium, but some studies show that there should be a sufficient supply for about next 50 to 200 years or so. Gas run engines are already state of the art concerning cars and are in discussion for airplanes and ships. Electricity and heating theoretically could be generated by the renewables, leaving only the industrial sector. Would it in your opinion just take to long to replace these energy sources or am i missing something? Thanks for your answer.
Found an answer yet?
Doesn't the US stockpile the majority of it's own production, choosing to import to fuel it's needs?
Seems solar and battery technology may be able to address transport and heating markets.
Not for transportation. Besides there's not enough cobalt, nickel, lithium on this limited earth to make the batteries.
You ve got a mistake, speaking of 1964 as a peak, and that now is 44 years later (roughly @8min)- just to let you know. It would fit to video from 2008 although :)
Oil prices are being manipulated down as a backstop for Europe economy. Oil is simply another tool for the Banksters to use to revive an economy along with Zero Interest Rates and QE.
Again the problem here - and which sparked vehement disagreement from my family - is that the focus on the technical problems and physical limitations are of greater concern than the political ones. But the decision to NOT discover oil and to NOT produce discovered oil is also tied to the decisions to 'rely' upon wind and solar 'power' sources ... which simply make certain fossil fuel producers incredibly rich. Solar and wind are essentially fossil fuel plays - to burn more fossil fuels faster and faster at higher and higher prices for the benefit of the most dangerous, malicious and murderous regimes on the planet ...
According to Forbes:
"The Saudis are locked in a struggle with Iran for the control of the cartel, and the two countries now are playing a game of chicken over prices. Both said they intend to keep producing regardless of how far prices fall. Whose economy can hold out the longest? The Saudis are happy to take that bet.
Saudi has more reserves, and while it needs higher oil prices to continue funding the kingdom’s vast and expanding social programs, it can hold out for a while.
Nuclear fusion TECH could provide access to limitless energy ...so TECH kinda could equal ENERGY [not literally]
Except nobody has figured out how yet. And may never, for all we know.
Are you an expert in that specific field?
I have to disagree with your point about technology not being an energy source. Yes, it doesn't literally create energy, but it's completely facetious to dismiss the possibility of creating *functional* energy where there was little before from energy. Most solar energy and wind energy is completely unharnessed; technological advances in solar panels would quite literally create *functional* energy.
Also, google the "hubbert curve" to understand peak oil and future implications...not rocket science for sure :)
invest in oil everybody
Without fusion we are f**ked
Fusion isn't coming. So f**cked we are.
I love your videos but technology CAN produce energy. Sun energy is free and increasing Solar efficiency gives more free energy. If we will be finally able to control nuclear fusion there is even bigger source of energy from very cheap energy source (hydrogen, you told also that it is never an energy source but in case of nuclear fusion it actually is) we cannot use now, so there are technologies that can save us.
It’s worth mentioning that by burning plastic, you create diesel fuel. Yep.
The problem is that we’ve been lied to about the presuppositions this video rests on.
I think this one is missing the advancements in producing oil from algae. These micro-organisms are extremely efficient for converting sunlight energy and CO2 into a very similar compounds that can replace oil. I wouldn't be surprised if these technologies start occupying a tangible market share as soon as the price of oil starts climbing.
Resources on earth are finite, but energy is not. The real problem is with storing that energy. So I disagree with this video on the assumption that technology can't save us all at least on that matter.
It's pretty clear however that the price of oil will rise, although it could very well drop again over time as technologies improve, perhaps even further than we can imagine today.
LOOK OUT GUYS THE SKY IS FALLING
Your squeaky voice needs a little work.