Tesla pivots away from Chinese EV 'bloodbath' to autonomous FSD gamble
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- Опубликовано: 2 июн 2024
- Tesla pivots away from Chinese EV 'bloodbath' to autonomous FSD gamble
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I bought a Tesla a few weeks ago to get access to FSD. It's a breakthrough. I don't drive myself anywhere anymore. My wife has poor night vision and has been afraid to drive at night for years, and now she's driving at night. Or, really, the car is driving her. I parked my Tesla at the gym a week ago and another Model Y pulled into the spot next to me at the same time. As the other driver got out, I saw he was handicapped on his left side. I started a conversation with him and asked if he was using the FSD. He said if he didn't, he wouldn't be able to drive at all. It's liberation.
Wow! Those are the stories that need to get out there! My understanding is that once people experience it, especially those that have any kind of stress driving, it is no brainer. Great Share!
Absolutely life saver to some people literally.
Just reckless to rely on unproven technology to put lives of others at risk. If you have poor vision you should not be driving at night, FSD still requires interventions.. Your license should be revoked and reported to police
your wife should not be driving if she cant handlie it. you are endangering other road users.
@@travisjazzbo3490 its illegal.
Every car I’ve ever owned has been fool self driving.
This joke is underappreciated.
🤣🤣🤣
😂
M 2 ha
I say continue to make tesla's compact with the FSD hardware, Tesla can further benefit from having the full package. A small car with FSD. That should be a goal
In a perfect World, yes. In the real world both are extremely difficult projects to pull off - if you do both at once failure is guaranteed. He picked the far more promising option. Beer and peanut gang disagree but those who think as entrepreneurs do see the pure genius of the move.
It's funny how the narrative shifted from "How can anyone ever compete with Tesla" to "IT'S A BLOOD BATH!!. TESLA CAN'T COMPETE!! TESLA HAS TO PIVOT NOW!!!"
I think that started with Elon's 4/16/2024 tweet "Not quite betting the company, but going balls to the wall for autonomy is a blindingly obvious move. Everything else is like variations on a horse carriage."
I am an investor, I am in the negative figures and I will definitely stay on board. Building as many cheap BEVs as possible is a very short-sighted target. But Tesla is no car manufacturer. Musk’s ideas are much more visionary.
" Building as many cheap BEVs as possible is a very short-sighted target" Tesla on this plan should be worth maybe $75 a share, at least in the current interest rate environment. Tesla with an AI focus could 2x, 5x, 10x or 100x depending on how the chips fall.
Why can they not keeping pushing the envelope on car manufacture and rollout FSD in China?
The problem with neural networks is that it can work perfectly fine for some time and suddenly something happens and nobody can know why to correct it. So of course, some will still say that it's statistically safer than a human driver. Driving safe is something, being aware about firefighters, ambulance or police that need you to get out of the way is something else.
There have been some problems in the past as Tesla has developed their system. I'm hearing exactly zero problems with firefighters, etc. with the later versions.
Interestingly, Tesla FSD seems to now be reading hand signs from traffic directors or even other drivers who are telling the car to go ahead of them. I understand that this is not yet a 100% reliable feature but is already working to some extent. This is how the system develops. You go from no success to partial success to full success.
@@bobwallace9753
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
Are you an AI software engineer?
@@markmercieca5569look at statistics .
Human drivers are worse
The problem is they are experimental. Like the cyber truck is still a prototype. My god.
It’s not so much a pivot but a concession to reality. Elon concluded the low cost model idea wasn’t likely to be particularly profitable, might siphon off sales on higher margin vehicles, and might damage brand image. Manufacturing cars shouldn’t detract from software development and other projects. Not if tesla actually believed in the profitability of a newer low cost car. It doesn’t.
The ‘unboxed’ model is simply another instance of empty hype. 50% cost reduction! It’s so easy to talk hype. So much harder to follow through.
Hype to scam retail investors.
makes sense to me. In China, there is a big competitive ecosystem of competing EV manufacturers with low price floor. Hard ground to make a profit even for Tesla. At the same time, the regulatory framework for self-driving taxis is much further along than in the U.S. and Tesla has both a lot of experience and tech developed for this and is well-positioned to compete for a dominant market share of the potentially enormous robotaxi market in China. Once they prove it out there many other markets could be opened up as western countries slower political and regulatory process catches up.
It’s FAKE competition literally only tesla and sometimes BYD can turn a profit on EVs….selling cars at a massive loss isnt competition its suicide. Of corse it’s happening in china same place that builds fake cities with no one living in them just so on paper they can show real estate growth. It’s a total house of cards
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
Good move Tesla. Who wins in a price war? No-one. Let the others go bust playing that game.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
Arthur Schopenhauer
When FSD (Tesla liability), happens you'll have to wait in line to buy a Tesla. It's close enough you can taste it. Jeannine
Why?
No way I want one of those things and I like driving my car.
@@oldbloke204 As old blokes also probably said of driving their horse and cart. Do you want to drive the bus or train you might get in? Or a taxi? Driving is a chore, drudgery, it was actually better with a horse! My father, as a boy, delivered milk by horse and cart, he says they were great as they learnt the route and knew where the stops were. Sounds 'closer' to self driving than the infernal combustion vehicles that replaced them, we went backwards to ICE cars. lol.
12.4 being released internally this week providing 5x-10x improvement in interventions. Yes, chasing the nines!
12.5 released in June, single stacked is crazy
Residual income from licencing FSD dwarfs EV sales, and this nugget of proprietary is applicable to Optimus
Nobody outside Tesla's fan circle sees these FSD updates as significant.
@@Withnail19697.5x improvement is significant by definition
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
Am I missing something here?
Not seeing Tesla using advanced AI in China when the chips needed for that are banned for export to China.
Definitely the right move, if they can allocate the hardware without violating US law and protect the technology against theft.
nnah, tsla gonna fail big time. FSD is a joke compare with Chinese counterparts
Tesla has grown at an astounding rate. I would not bet against musk. Hes usually late with his predictions but he has come thru!
No he hasn’t.
FSD is a completely different ball game compared to just scaling to production. This promise might just fall
@@i6power30 And tho, Tesla's autonomous adaptive cruse control is definitely impressive, it's not a self-driving in any meaningful way.
All his predictions have been overhyped or completely false, he's a conman.
@@i6power30
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
People LOVE a con artist. They forgive all lies, as long as the lies make them happy.
Elon could have waited on FSD for the time being and used that time to improve an imperfect product.
Even if Elon solves the FSD riddle soon he will still have regulatory hoops to jump through and that will take time
Elon doesn't solve anything, the engineers working on the project do. He just takes credit for their work.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
imperfect product? Have you driven one? Have any of the traditional car manufacturers wasted their time on trying to make their vehicles perfect? If they had, unicasting would have been a thing long before Musk. Welding and bolting frames and chassis together is a really inefficient way to build but it’s been like when all the incandescent bulb manufacturers had an industry wide cap on statistical life expectancy for their products. It was all fine until somebody showed up and said I ain’t playing that game.
tesla has no choice but to pivot. They only have 2 models that sell well and they are both dated, 4 to 5 years old.
Investors and analysts that don’t understand that FSD 12.3.6 is a huge breakthrough are either blind or they have a short seller skew. FSD success is a gateway to the success of the humanoid robots. Foolish foolish foolish investors who cannot see the forest for the trees, or to recognize leadership in technology and all of the AI opportunities that come from this.
By no means is Tesla just a car company. I believe Tesla will figure out a way to get nearly free AI deep learning processes running on 1 million FSD NPU’s in the fleet while the rest of the world is trying get get enough computes due to shortage of grid power and server farms. It is ingenious! Yet the investors, Wall Street is just too blind to see
I don't see why not cheers mate
Has anyone got the FSD they paid for?? On top of enormous depreciation???
Early adopters usually bear the brunt of the cost of development. Millions of (my impression) potential buyers, are now so steeped in the the “what’s ahead” for the battery technology, that they’re waiting to get the one that charges in minutes, costs less, and has more range than the average driver would care to attempt in a day’s travel.
Yes....but when Tesla cracks it.....what do you think it will be worth?
Buying FSD in NA is pointless. This is software and can be unlocked and/or downloaded anytime. Might as well wait for FSD to become reality before purchasing. They're not going to say no to money.
@@markmercieca5569 Actually I’m a die hard ICE guy currently due to practical issues. My son 4 Teslas and one is a cybertruck. I love it. FSD will be absolutely a game changer and huge money maker. It makes no sense for many people to own a car and FSD will rectify that.
How much would you pay for a car that drove itself?
It’s an interesting question.
I guess you could say how much time would it save you a week= 4 hours = $400= $20000 per year, for example.
But if you could hire an autonomous car quickly and it cost 💲20.00 per day for your trip= $4000.00 per year = $40000 over ten years which is getting to vehicle end of life.
15000 to 20000 dollars extra seems about right.
But it will mean Tesla sells a lot more vehicles.
I think they will 10x vehicle sales and get 25% margin on each vehicle while they maintain the competitive advantage.
Stock should 5x from here because some of this is already priced in based on fsd working.
But this doesn’t include Tesla bot. They could make similar amounts of profit on the bot as the car division.
Does it occur to anybody else that in Tesla “betting” on the success of its FSD, only they have true insider knowledge? How much of a gamble it is, involves how much they already know, - that we don’t.
All in on Revux - disrupting loyalty programs with huge potential!
Why do "Autonomous Full Self-Driving" needs to be trained in each and every nation, city and may be also hamlet? I got idea of how AI work. But if it needs to train on every road, then it's neither "Autonomous" nor "Self-Driving". And it's not even any proper AI model of self-driving involved. Just some map navigation.
It generalizes. There was a video of it driving fine in Georgia (the country) where it has zero data. They obviously hacked its GPS.
@michaelnurse9089 It actually doesn't. At least, not in the sense that you and I do. For a system that can learn and adapt like a human it'd need to be an artificial general intelligence.
It's not a bad idea but to go all in like this is pretty foolish of a move. Tesla is ahead in this field and trying to corner at least some market is a possibility especially since Teslas are popular in China the used ones could be used for this as well for small starting enterprises.
Personally I don't think it will work out and they will have to pivot to just being the AI for other cars.
I just want these things to get cheaper. I enjoy driving so FSD is not a draw for me.
I don’t care for self driving at all. I know how to drive. I’d take lane keeper and cruise control for long trips though any time. It’s reducing fatigue a lot.
You may like driving, but everyone needs a car that can drive him to the office, then come back to take the kids to school and come back to take the wife to shopping
REAL FSD means I can sleep in the backseat, and that would be great. Saying, "Its FSD but you have to pay attention" is the same as pretending that, "hoverboards" actually hover. People fall for Marketing lies so easily.
“Tesla gets purchase tax exemption in China same week Elon Musk argues Taiwan should be a ‘special autonomous zone’ under Chinese government rule”
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
Re Tesla pivoting away from Chinese EVs to autonomy/FSD ridesharing, it's disappointing to see Tesla wave the white flag so early and surrender their EV market share to competitors. A future where Tesla decides where I can travel and when I can travel and how I can travel is not progress. People who can afford personal transportation will continue to buy vehicles and have the best freedom of mobility. If it boils down to a choice of relying on Tesla Cybercabs or driving my own vehicle (or letting my own vehicle drive me via FSD), I will always choose to own or lease my own vehicle. The ONLY reason I own an EV today is because Tesla is the gold standard and also has the Supercharger network. If Tesla is pivoting away from making compelling EVs to providing a rideshare service, then I would probably end up buying a PHEV or ICE vehicle again when my Tesla wears out. Tesla's pivot seems very risky for them and it does not instill confidence to buy a Tesla vehicle today when there is doubt they will remain in the personal vehicle business in the future. Maybe Tesla will learn to do both (make great EVs and Cybercabs/rideshare)?
Does Tesla get to use the data in China to improve the FSD in the uS and elsewhere?
Huawei also has FSD and it looks great too and even exceed Tesla FSD in may areas.
Can you suggest some reviews?
I greatly doubt it
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 iTs only available and tested in China. You can search for Huawei FSD. Very impressive live demo. I believe and have used Huawei products and they have produced great smartphones, gadgets, 5G tech and devices.
I hardly think that's likely.
@@KingLutherQ
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
To the side - I believe that the cancellation of project Titian was Apple’s similar move. China has squashed Ev profitability so go fsd as a subscription service.
Well Elon is doing the same thing in the US with this Robo Taxi push in making them. There still is no hint or mention on the low cost Model 2 being developed or when something maybe released to the public - is there a 2025 date??? Just seems to be Robo Taxi talk, Cyber Trucks, and high cost Roadster which no Average person can afford.
I have my Tesla Model Y, but I don't see Tesla looking at low cost vehicles. Maybe I am wrong, but getting kind of hints from various You Tube videos.
Yeah it sounds like they may have abandoned the low cost model 2. Probably figured they can't compete in the low cost market with all the news of $11k BYD Seagull and such.
If Musk wants to build data centers in China, wont that mean that the export restrictions on state of the art hardware will also apply to him?
edit: oops I wrote too early, Viking is addressing this
An issue is also if I trust that Tesla knows how to built a model that can solve self driving, maybe a partnership with OpenAI would be good thing... or some more experts on how to use transformers etc.
Unfortunately no. A language model or similar approach is never gonna solve these kind of problem. So get a feel of it - take this simple example. Why do u think it's hard to drive while talking? Mainly because these are two fundamentally different tasks, u can't do one with another. Controlling complex movement and spatial reasoning is a completely different game than reasoning with language. This also implies that LLMs are never gonna grow into AGI. And yeah, I'm well aware of GPT-4o, Gemini and other multimodal things. They are based on the same thing and thus has the same weakness.
@@aniksamiurrahman6365
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
what happened to tesla's 20minllion vehicle production ?
That was last year. This year, sales will likely be less than in 2023.
What part of "Tesla pivots..." didn't you understand. FSD has taken much more money/time than thought and BYD is catching up.
Exciting times ahead - Revux impact is undeniable!
If i sold 10 items on day one,
20 a day on day 2,
40 a day on day 3,
80 a day on day 4,
90 a day on day 5,
95 a day on day 6,
my sales are still at the highest they have been, but growth is slowing. Slowing growth means sales are not growing as fast.
Uggg. I fear the model 2 is dead 😢
This has always been his direction. (and why I won't buy a Tesla)
Taxi driving is a massive employer in China.u think d jobless taxi drivers will just roll over for robotaxi? Unless only current taxi owners allowed to own d robots is. And many ignir NIO's self driving. China will localise d tech away from tesla in time. TRUTH BOMBS!
Not just China, I see this shift as global for Tesla and related to all the layoffs/firings.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
❤❤❤
it's not a choice.
Self driving is a useful addition but in certain countries the geography causes black spots with technology. Insurance companies will want to see greater data and the fossil fuel industry will go all out with negative data and paint it as big brother control over your independence...
Nothing to prevent gas or diesel vehicle makes from making them drive assistant or auto drivings.
They would be cheaper because patrol is still cheaper then lithium battery cars due to battery weight.
@@Eric.1I37 The better hurry up Cummins are ending all diesel engine manufacturering in 2025. ICE are being phased out by all other manufacturers. Tyoata announced it has 2 million unsold fossil fuel vehicles unsold World wide with no buyers or dealers willing to take the stock.
Seriously, Another M2 cancellation rumor?
@ 0 0 : 0 3. Smarter than Elon disease just as plain sgt. Carter-( Gomer Pyle voice )
lol, musk believes he will will have a monopoly on this technology !! I laughed when you said that the musk want to become the Uber of china. The new model of Tesla, Uber lol
We are months away from Tesla's Alpha GO moment!
Except it's not a game but a multi trillion $ TAM of autonomous transport.
@graham aside from what Musk says, what convinces you FSD will be a trillion dollar market? There were 200,000 taxis in the USA now and 6M ride-share drivers today. People won’t give up private ownership anytime soon and most won’t pay $10G for a FSD reature. The market might reach into the billions but trillions is probably a stretch.
@@greghelton4668 Global autonomous ride hailing market TAM, according to ARK.
An autonomous ride could drop to below 50c per mile, at this point it would not make sense for most people to own their own vehicle. Under 25's insurance cost alone is prohibitively expensive, which is why we are seeing an Uber generation. If the cost of autonomous transport cuts an Uber ride by more than half the younger generation may not move into car ownership.
BTW, there is a world beyond USA.
@@grahambrown42 car ownership doesn’t make sense now but we still drive our own cars. Societal habits are almost impossible to change. Religion still exists despite the advances in our understanding the world. Wars still exist despite the impact it has on the world. Cars just replaced buggies. We still have large swaths of people driving ICEVs despite knowing BEVs are less harmful to the environment. I can on and on with examples but to me FSD won’t convince large number of people to abandon their cars. Maybe in a hundred years but it’ll be slow.
@@greghelton4668 Don't think you actually read and understood my post. Nobody needs to abandon car ownership, the next generation will not see the need to move into car ownership.
@@grahambrown42 I read it and don’t necessarily disagree with you. I’m saying it’s going to take a long time before people, young and old, abandon cars. FSD won’t take off as quickly as Musk hopes, especially at $100k per license.
I think Elon is several games ahead of us, we are guessing what his last move was, he has already moved on. That's what I think.
As the late Charles Munger said of Elon Musk,” Never underestimate the man who overestimates himself," acknowledging that overconfidence could lead to extraordinary achievements.
Elon Musk has always stated the Tesla was a Technology company not a car manufacturer, so the doubling down on the autonomous vehicle strategy shouldn’t come has a surprise. However, taxis operate within towns and cities that have predetermined road structures and infrastructure, so theoretically it should be more straightforward to build an autonomous taxi, than an autonomous car which is required to go anywhere. However, similar to the Waymo autonomous taxis, there are a number of autonomous taxi companies, already working across China. The next 18 months will be interesting to see if Elon Musk still lives up to Charles Munger’s estimate of him.
Can you point to the last good business decision Elon made to support that he may be capable of more than he promises. I personally think he probably has one of the most gifted marketing minds we have ever seen, but not much more than that.
Has he "always" said its a Tech company? Because I just started hearing that a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, he promised FSD, "next year" 9 years in a row. Yet people still take him seriously. People LOVE a con artist. They forgive all lies, as long as the lies make them happy.
@@isaac827 The CEO of NASA said recently, he has no issues with Elon Musk over SpaceX, because he put someone else in charge. Perhaps, he needs to do that with Tesla, but his ego is presently in the way. That’s why I said 18 months, he is trying a lot of investors patience and it will not last forever. Charles Munger may ultimately be proven correct about not investing in Tesla.
@@randomgrinnTo be fair he has always said that. It is the key component value which is baked into the share price by the market. Otherwise it would be at Nikola Truck value. That is the constant debate between the Tesla Bulls and Tesla Bears, particularly that Tesla over promises and under delivers their products. The August unveiling of a ready for production autonomous taxi, is key. A prototype model unveiled like the cyber truck or semi won’t cut it any more, because everyone would know, it would be years away from production. At that point Tesla’s in the realms of sunk-cost fallacy.
@@DC.409 If the best decision he has made is to step down, I dont really see his potential. I am of the opinion that this move could be the end for Tesla given the current economic conditions in China. I dont even see how it is possible with the chip restrictions unless he manufactures in the US to sell into China and that wont work. I am no expert though, time will tell.
If he does manage to get FSD working in any Asian country it will completely change my mind, organised chaos is the best way to describe the road conditions and if he can get it to work there it will work anywhere.
Hello mate
So if Tesla are going to Train in China, they need training compute in China, and officially they can't import Nvidia A100, H100 or H200 GPU's
But will they be prevented from deploying their own Dojo Copute in their own data centre in China? US government may have banned the sale of high end GPU's to China, but there is no sale with dojo?
Kind of has me figuring they will make do with what they can manage. Use more of them.
its not those chips specifically. ban is based on chip density, compute speed etc.
China have already built some of the most massive supercomputers. Before the bans. Maybe these are suitable.
China also said Tesla could take 'training relevant data' back to the US. The just don't want video of their military bases or CCP offices leaving the shore.
@@danharold3087 It's a thought Dan. In theorey they can evelove the model in the US where they have huge compute and can do many iterations. Then train that model in China using Chinese data on likely slower computers. Does it matter if it takes a month or two instead of a week if you are not having to iterate all of the time?
There's probably a glut of qualified programmers in China. This could be good.
I've seen this movie. 30 yrs ago, every tech CEO offshored all mfg to China, Taiwan bc they knew they can't match the China-price, they get golden💰as well. It didn't end well for the rest of us, as climbing up the food chain ladder eventually run out of steps. They can do the design, R&D even better. We became the reseller. It is the 🍎 game, hope Tesla can do as well.
The world had done pretty well using China as plantation lol for cheap goods
The same thing digital music did to CDs is what FSD will do to the 25K EV....
You mean you will never own it and just rent it by the month then?
Sounds about right these days.
Elon as usual, is daring his competitors to catch him. The Model 2 may be easily switched to "Robo-taxie". The future is led, excited, challenged, by Musk.
With data not being able to go to the US and restrictions on western supplies of chips for DOJO like compute systems then this is the fly in the ointment!! Long run, China needs its own Data system and training but this could take some time??
What NVIDIA and Dojo provide is speed. If China wants to build a lot of computers it can still be done. Not easy but possible.
" this is the fly in the ointment!" China has fabs that are increasing in ability. Elon overpowered the hardware 100x over what was needed so if it is 10x what is needed it will be fine.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
I think his hubris has caused him to think he can solve FSD quickly and roll it out quickly.
I disagree. He is too optimistic about the issues to be overcome and the regulatory challanges which will require new legislations.
I don’t want any more Clickbait I want a $25,000 electric car and I want it now
I tested it out the FSD and I would not pay for it. It’s very basic and has way too many bugs. It would’ve worked if everyone had the same FSD in all traffics. And Tesla will never win a FSD war against Chinese made ones which are based on both cameras and lidars, and are tested on much complex traffics and roads. Are you kidding me?! American couldn’t even come up with a decent face recognition system, let alone a real FSD
That was a very interesting video! I am also surprised that Tesla is doing this in China... It is a big risk!
yes... unless Tesla wants to become a Chinese company
The risk is attempting to get FSD approved in the US. I totally understand why this is happening.
In China the governments promote business in the US they work against business.
It makes total sense from Elon's and Tesla's point of view.
And yes I expect China to own 1/2 of the FSD effort in China.
That may come with lots of money to make it happen.
Chinese middle class is growing, and is nearly 10 times the size of US. And there's other Asian middle class around. At the same time, US middle class is rather degrading, fast. It's pretty simple which is a greater risk, pivoting to China/Asia or confining yourself to US/Collective West.
As for the AI news, Tesla is just entering another bloodbath. No matter what they do. Chinese AI reserachers and EV makers aren't dummies. And China has far stricter traffic regulation. A completely driverless taxi service is very unlikely to get permission from Chinese govt.
@@danharold3087 Tesla's FSD is nowhere near a Self-driving capability, let alone Full Self Driving. Driver intervention is required even in mildly critical situation. Chinese govt is far more active in road safety and safety of their citizens. So, I think Tesla will have hard time getting away with their flashy nonsense in China than US.
As for what US govt does, mind it - Tesla only exists due to US govt's subsidy. Withut US govt's help, none of Tesla or SpaceX will ever exist.
At the moment the risk is mitigated. Elon needs China for production and China needs Elon to transfer cutting edge technology. Who wins or loses in the long run is anybody's guess.
Elon Musk is an extreme example of a great pioneer but a terrible manager. It's actually not uncommon for pioneers to be bad at the daily grind, it's boring to them.
Data can't come out. Chips can't go in. What gives?!
China makes their own chips!
Most likely Tesla will make up for slower training computers with more of them. Maybe build them. I have heard that Tesla agreed to form a company with china as its partner. If this is true SASAC my pay whatever it takes to make it work.
@@danharold3087
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
The US has had their chance at the first dance with Tesla / FSD and passed with prejudice. You snooze, you (US) lose. Another win … for our dipstick in chief.
You want to talk about trump’s EV plan?
Jackass
Elon's move to cut back on the rollout of the Super Charging network in North America and to not produce the Model 2 so he has the cash to spend on AI for a robotaxi network does not "get my vote off confidence".
The expansion of the Super Charger network and the sales of the model 2 would have been positive revenue streams in North America.
Chinese EVs won't be a threat in the North American market for a few years yet.
Until Tesla doesn’t derive 80% of its income from cars then it is still mainly a car company
Huawei will always have advantage on AI and FSD over Tesla in China.... that's not even up for discussion
That's correct, Aito is selling 25k a month alone, there's Avatar, Chery Luxceed and others. Huawei is national champion. Even Baidu will have advantage over Tesla in China
Really? Based on what imaginary data?
@@rogerfroud300
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
I just drove 160 miles on FSD no interventions. Jeannine
You can probably drive 160 miles without interventions in a car with 1980's cruise control and early 2000's lane assist if you choose the time and place carefully.
But seriously FSD is already a big win if it can do long bring stretches of highway including traffic jams. If Tesla could get it to be approved as FULL (Tesla responsible) for only that it would already be great.
I drove 5 miles on FSD yesterday with 2 interventions (one was to avoid being hit by a car when FSD was trying to make a left turn).
@@bsaxman2012 FSD miles driven per intervention needs to improve by 35x to be as good as a human driver. The next release 12.4 will improve it by about 7x and 12.5 another 5x so by 12.5 it should be 35x better and as good as a human. By 12.7 it will be 10x better than a human.
Musk is a gambler who will go in a wall with Tesla, he has no cards in his games. He better sales his stock and concentrate on Space X where at least he had some success
It's not really a "move." It's a full on retreat. You all thought he was playing 4D chess, when in reality he was playing checkers...and lost.
If so, Tesla will be severely brusied in China's market. In terms of Fsd or adas technology, Tesla is far behind the Chinese competitors.
Tesla is not stopping EV production in China. Nothing has changed with Tesla selling EVs in China. Tesla is just executing its robo-taxi plans to China first. This has been planned long ago. Now Tesla Robo-taxis are coming to the world. It might as well be in China where regulators are not as prissy. The only risk are the lawsuits against Tesla if FSD causes a lot of accidents during the teething period. But I think Tesla can afford that. Overall, the risk is acceptable, and the rewards could be off the charts. At least a 4x according to Ark Invest.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
Seems like Elon is really good at finding industries that are stagnant, and piling in with the latest technology and taking over, but when the others catch up he doesn't know how to compete, so pivots to something else
Tesla will only make money on cars not FSD so if they had a bigger choice and lower prices they would be better off, in China people will hire a driver for a reasonable price and they do other duties.
In the long term, there is there is not much money in software. Eventually someone else will catch up and suddenly "FSD" is an entry-level feature.
Like iPhone
FSD is still stuck at L2. Baidu and Huawei have L4 systems.
Just like everyone caught up with Google Search, Apple OS and Microsoft Office. What planet you from?
@@michaelnurse9089 I made bank on all of those stocks too, cant wait til everyone knows.
😂 this is the stupidest statement ive seen in a while. Self driving so so cutting edge and revolutionary it would take decades upon decades before it would become a commodity the company that solves FSD first could make trillions in the mean time. IF anyone can even catch up it may be a license from tesla or DIE scenario no company is even remotely close and tesla lead is only growing not staying the same or slowing down
It's the only way. I mean tesla can't keep lowering EVs to compete with Chinese EVs. This pivot will be a game changer, if it becomes successful. FSD is the only game in town, and no one can replicate it. Chinese are working on their own version of fsd but with LiDAR. Although things look good, the scalability of it is limited. Tesla will have a monopoly over fsd forever.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
YEah, but FSD doesn't work. There is no visible timeline it will ever work.
why do u think it won't work?
08/08/24
@@sensibility3009 I worked in AI research for 10 past years, I don't see any theoretical frameworks that enables AGI. MIT worked on self driving for several decades, so is Standford. General concensus in academia is that you need AGI for level 4 or 5 full self driving. Tesla's Andre Karpathy leaving in 2022 is an indication that even the industry's best can't find a easy path to full autonomy. Tesla's current FSD lead doesn't have a strong credential or track record.
Maybe if the Chinese has an ace up its sleeves, I don't see FSD come to reality for at least 10 years or more.
It does work. I have it. I use it every day and it takes me everywhere. I only have to intervene to park, and that apparently is being solved in the next big release in a week or two.
@@ghrosenb It will not be solved in a week or two, or a year or two. I promise you that.
Tesla is so much more than just an auto co. why should its stock rely on just # of auto sold. Doesnt Musk use his own money (colloteralized by stock)from Tesla for SpaceX, Starlink, Boring Co etc etc , It seems there is a lot of overlap. Even though the others companies are private and have other private investors seems they should have some positive effect on Tesla
Anything China makes me nervous. That government is criminal
People doubt they will ever prefer taking a driverless taxi versus having their own car. It just seems impossible, crazy. It can't be safe or reliable. A person's car is an extension of their ego, a part of their image. A private piece of home you take with you. But people who live with good public transportation, who don't even know how to drive, feel differently. Elon is skipping the low-priced EV with its direct competition from Chinese manufacturers, and moving directly to the next stage after that. His people had to convince him that the 25k car could be the same platform/assembly line as the robo-taxi before he signed off on it. But he was so convinced by the progress of FSD, plus the drop off of EV sales, that he said to hell with it. He gave a free trial of FSD and he wants to show the world the robo taxi prototype, hoping to convince them too.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
First, who cares about what Ray Kurzweil, the proponent of the absurd singularity hypothesis, says about anything. Second, you can't just pivot as you please in business without a price to be paid (business as normal, of course, also involves a price being paid). Elon can't just opt out of the 'bloodbath'. The Model Y and 3 are Tesla's top selling models and giving up on them means Tesla goes belly up.
Now, it is doubtful that Tesla has any spare change, at this critical moment, to do anything other than finance its own future growth as a leading EV maker. If Tesla wants to pivot it is going to have to borrow a lot of money and invest it in these new moonshoot businesses. If Tesla simply stops competing for EV market share in favour of robotics its automotive business will fail. On the other hand, if Tesla does commit to robotics without a shedload of finance behind its effort, its new robotics business will fail.
At the moment Musk doesn't look like he is resolving these mutually destructive business demands he just looks like he is trying to make himself look more indispensable to Tesla in service of his absurd proposition that he should control far more Tesla shares. Musk's position is that he is Tesla and that only he knows how to navigate to the new world in which Tesla has its fingers in all the pies that matter. The Tesla board should respond as follows: you are fired!
Tesla currently has $26 billion cash on hand. This is monstrous.
@@MrTeachkids Yes, and unless Tesla continues to invest in growth and automotive technical leadership its business will stagnate and the cashflows that replenish and deepen that pool of cash will dry up, viz. the cash will fail to serve a useful purpose if it is diverted to other ends (in a pivot) when, at this current juncture, growth of Tesla as an automotive operation is synonymous with survival of Tesla.
I did not suggest that Tesla (or some related entity) would need to forgo an AI/robotics play just that internally generated finances couldn't reasonably be relied upon as the basis of that play. Go out and borrow the money and take the risk or establish an Optimus company as a spin off with new shareholders along the lines of Tesla but don't pretend that hobbling Tesla's growth for this bet that Elon has a good feeling about is a responsible course of action in fulfillment of Tesla management's fiduciary duties.
@@chris27gea58
I don't think Electric Viking really understands Tesla. It's not a pivot, rather it's a necessary new product (new industry?) rollout. There is no hobbling of Tesla for AI/Robotics. Their growth is symbiotic and each will help the other more greatly than if separated.
Tesla's ongoing car manufacture investments are incredibly strong and return on capital/payoff period are industry leading. They are borrowing, but get it paid off quickly. There is no hobbling of Tesla car manufacture: Tesla is building new factories in Mexico and Germany (second one), and expanding the Shanghai factory. They are looking for additional factory locations in UK/ Indonesia/ Argentina/ Korea, and other places. This is hardly stagnation.
The $26 billion internally generated cash should be aggressively used to continue to help finance new investments rather than paying a dividend to investors as we know Musk generates ROI greater than almost any other investment (just look at his track record). That is my choice as an investor anyway.
Tesla is expanding it's grid and home storage batteries at an exponential rate and is building a new factory in China for this after expanding its California factory. This alone could be as big as the car business as they leverage grid and car energy storage into grid management. Again no stagnation or hobbling of Tesla businesses.
Growth of FSD is not based on a "good feeling" and is not a "bet". The economics of replacing 8 million US truck drivers with FSD is hugely compelling and has to happen. Tesla's FSD is now working well, with 5x to 10x improvements every 6 months. We already see truck companies clamoring for FSD with a "geofenced" route for driverless trucks established between Tucson and Phoenix. The demand is there and the payoff for the trucking companies huge. FSD and selling cars is very symbiotic as the keys to FSD is the data collected from the cars (and trucks) plus compute power, and not the software which is easily replicable - and Tesla has pretty much given away the software recipe. Thus keeping cars and AI together makes sense.
Spinning off Optimus is the traditional financial way of thinking where the engineering of the situation is ignored. This thinking is why so many US companies (e.g. GM) have become useless albatrosses concentrating on marketing and smoke and mirrors rather than engineering and developing compelling products. Optimus needs Tesla as a test bed and the engineering power of Tesla to succeed at the speed it needs to, and it will feed back into Tesla operations making them more efficient. Again, spin off makes no sense.
Finally the symbiosis between Twitter and Tesla is an additional key to success, with the immediacy of large language AI models using Twitter data (rather than the older data other AI companies are using from Facebook, Reddit, etc.) combined with Tesla's physical world AI likely resulting in Tesla winning the Artificial General Intelligence race - which will desire large companies with control over multiple areas of the economy - cars, robots, grids, space, internet communications, etc., not to mention social thinking and politics as considerable power is sought and obtained by the winner - scary!
@@MrTeachkids Well, your effort at rational persuasion is welcome but I don't accept most of the points you have made. Personally, I see Tesla as having already lost momentum. The Model 3 and Y should have progressed to an 800/900V architecture by now. That would serve to 'future proof' Tesla's most popular models, which is the right strategy to sustain a high level of interest in Tesla's vehicles. Similarly, the smaller, less expensive model should be shipping now. Maintaining a strong lead requires moving before other players move. Tesla has lost that advantage and has allowed Chinese companies to make these moves before it was ready to make them itself. To me Tesla looks like it is playing itself out of a position of technical leadership in EVs for failure to make sufficient and sufficiently timely investments. We have different scorecards for Tesla's performance. You think Tesla has plenty of cash to do everything it needs to do. I think much of this cash should already have been committed to staying ahead of the game. That makes me much more sceptical about Musk's AI/Robotics bet.
@@chris27gea58 The ultimate prize is AGI and there is no company better positioned to win this prize than Tesla
The walls are going up! The model 2 needs to be for North American/ EU it will never fly to compete on bottom line in China as the Chinese goverment will support your competition until then win.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
Two days from now Musk will pivot in a different direction depending on which way the wind blows. He a genius.
What did you do this week? 🤡
The problem will be the latest chips that are banned from sale into China. All your previous talk about the huge increase in compute capacity recently will presumably not be able to be set up in China.
Of course the stupidity of sanctions to hide behind mean China may well put the effort into taking the Chip making tech and making world leading chip making facilities. 'Acquiring' knowledge and such has never been a problem to them. Anyone hiding behind patents and copyrights is admitting they are standing still so deserve all they get really.
Moving to Software rather than proper making things is always an easier way to make money! Basically you make something once and sell it billions of times rather than have to make an new item every time, by proper making work. Hence all the internet and Microsoft types to junk music recorded and sold over and over again on as good as zero cost per copy.
FSD must drive like an old granny though... Coming up behind everything and stopping/slowing THEN thinking what to do and what move to make after the problem is already happened and slowed you down. It'll never be able to be intuitive like a real driver. Although maybe that's a good thing. They'll just be more lame drivers stuck in slow Lanes leaving more openings for real drivers to jettison around free and clear. Granted the majority of the general public drives just as lame as described above
TESLA is one of the Greatest companies in the world !!!
TESLA will succeed for a greater batter cleaner safer environment world in Auto Industries.
😉💖⚡️🔋🌞💯🌏✌️
Tesla revenue down 55% from last year. That’s the hard reality. Elon starts talking about robo taxi to distract from that truth.
There is no distraction if you look at the reality.
The hard reality is that China is paying their companies to make EVs. Apparently they can afford to make cars without selling them.
See videos about how they are clogging ports in Europe. Not far fetched because at one time they were building cars and
recycling the new cars to build new cars all the while collecting money for each car they built.
That has driven the profit margin on EVs down down down. This has impacted Tesla's revenue from cars. Sales are down.
Do you expect Tesla to build more EVs than it can't sell. Lower the price below cost of production. Invest CAPX to make cars for less
only to have China wipe that out by lowering the MSRP on its cars.
Whatever Tesla does the Chinese would still undercut them. Even with the current pricing in China the SU7 launched with a price $4k
less than the mode 3. By design.
Better to go to China and partner with the Chinese to help get FSD on the road w/o lawyers, judges, agencies, and the POTUS standing in the way.
By partnering the effort is likely to qualify as a State Owned Enterprise and SASAC can at their discretion provide money. With strings.
Expect Tesla will own 1/2 and the Chinese government the rest.
@@danharold3087China isn’t paying companies they give a subsidy like most Countries give subsidies for you to buy an EV
Infact they think there is too many EV car manufacturing companies in China already
As for Chinese EVs clogging up EU ports
That’s to be expected as BYD has a 7000 car, Cargo ship delivering EVs right now and plans to have 8 if these cargo ships in total
👇
This story is from October 30, 2022
China's BYD Orders 8 'RoRo' Cargo Ships Worth $689 Million: Eyes Global Car Market
China's BYD (Build Your Dreams) has placed an order for 8 'RoRo' vehicle carrying cargo ships which are worth 5 billion Yuan (around $689 million) from a shipyard in Yantai. The eight ships each have a cargo carrying capacity of 7,700 vehicles each, and will help the brand expand its global footprint.
TheTimesIndia
Elon Musk is a pivot man? 😂😂😂😂👀
Problem is that Tesla fans oversell their achievements with it. I think it was great that was it Farzad or sb who gave us numbers of disengagements per mile, it was like 17000 for Waymo and maybe 250-300 for Tesla. And yes, maybe Tesla drives more naturally and they have done it without lidar and mapping and not in geofenced area, but it is still 2 magnitudes of improvement needed to be better than Waymo it seems and it is nice to see examples of zero disengagement drives from big Tesla fans, but regular people are saying that switched it off quickly because it still did not feel comfortable. Don't get me wrong, it is great what the car can do when it works, but still significant amount of time away from even Waymo record it seems
The problem is as you touched on to we are looking for a metric that is ill defined.
The state would not be slowing if not outright delaying it for any reason.
With the GeoFenced efforts in the US we learned from Cruise's misfortune that they employed
remote safety drivers while claiming to be autonomous.
Some of the people who were uncomfortable with FSD may have been unknowingly using it in
the aggressive mode. What one person says is too aggressive is not aggressive enough for the next guy.
Seen a video, I don't recall the channel, of an autonomous taxi ride in China.
The boarding location has a warning that reads like you are boarding a roller coaster.
Has me thinking China is the place to finish up FSD. -
This is all so misunderstood. Let's say I am a gifted guitarist but there are many like or nearly like me, so I lose some of the gigs to others.
I announce that I am going to become a vocalist. Does that mean I am abandoning the guitar? No. I will continue my guitar combined with my singing.
Musk said there will be a Robotaxi announcement on 8,8 this summer. Will this curtail any vehicle production? Absolutely not. If he will have achieved level 5 FSD by then it merely means a new program will be added to the mix. 5 million Teslas already on the road will be eligible to add a Robotaxi service to their cars. If 10% do that will be 500,000 part time Robotaxis making money for their owners and for Tesla. Musk has said more than once that the company will supply those taxis in areas where there is not sufficient owner participation to meet demand.
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC
This will never work in China, all of the Chinese companies are way ahead of Tesla in autonomous driving in China
Absolutely! It's the right move.
FSD software is (not quite) infinitely more scalable than cars. This way, Tesla gets a slice of nearly all future car sales by other manufacturers.
FSD is the future. If my non-technical, 65 year-old mother can see the benefits of it and uses it every day, then it is obvious to me that people will embrace once it can be more widespread. A lot of people out there have no idea what FSD is and will be very pleasantly surprised when they learn about it. The future is bright...(but we need to make sure Elon gets paid first!)
BEV sales growth in China has slowed this year. That's been well documented. And what is this nonsense about Tesla 'pivoting' to FSD. They've been working on this for years.
No they have not.. EV sales are up in China
Plus 30 million cars are sold in China every year only 8 million if that is EVs
If they wanted to they could force people to buy EVs in China
Or get rid of the license plate lotteries where if you don’t have a license plate you don’t get to drive a car
@@DW-op7ly The rate of growth of BEV sales in China is down. And yes, they are forcing people to buy EVs through exorbitant taxes on ICE cars.
@@calc1657 you have no clue what you are talking about
They give Chinese consumers a rebate just like you do in America
More like 33% of all car sales if the number jumps to 10 million EV cars sales in China
👇
The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020. In 2024, electric cars sales in China are projected to leap to about 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country.Apr 23, 2024
IEA
@@DW-op7ly Wrong. The Chinese govt provides numerous subsidies to EV makers. And I'm referring to BEV. Hybrids frequently get rolled into EV numbers.
@@calc1657 America provides 10 times the subsidies
If we are comparing that
You Americans need to stop crying
👇
Ford Gets $9.2 Billion to Help US Catch Up With China’s EV Dominance
It’s one of the biggest loans to a US carmaker in more than a decade - and a watershed moment in Biden’s $400 billion plan to go all in on green technologies.
By Akshat Rathi, Ari Natter and Keith Naughton Green
June 22, 2023
Bloomberg
Presale strategy pays off: Loving Revux early entry!
Am I correct in assuming an Revux is a type of anal probe ?
Halting development on new car models is required right now. Tesla is on the cusp of fully solving FSD. If they do that then all design of newer models will be informed by that.
Going ahead and pushing out newer models before you know if FSD will become approved by regulators, and immensely successful, would be stupid.
It would be like going ahead and buying plane tickets for a European vacation while ignoring that there is a war breaking out. The way forward on all new vehicles hinges on whether FSD is fully solved.
True. In the meantime, Tesla would no longer be a first choice when considering buying an EV today. Instead, a PHEV would be a better choice because manufacturers of those vehicles are committed to building them. It will be interesting to see how Tesla funds their massive rideshare/autonomy programs while sales of their vehicles dwindle.
@@bsaxman2012 LOL.... why would I want a PHEV and all those maintenance costs? You have all the bad things associated with a gas engine plus you are lugging around a heavier than normal battery. If you use it only on electric to avoid the CO2 release of the gas engine then why not go full electric and get real range?
PHEV? Nah!
FSD will be an enormous failure. They are over confident based on smooth driving, while this works for Humans its not representative of safety for AI. Its those edge case where the AI gets it wrong or makes a bad decision that will cause payouts to claimants. Tesla won't be able to afford that.
An almost predictable development given the desperation of Musk. It was disconcerting when Musk recently announced that Tesla was going “balls to the wall” regarding FSD development. As a stock holder I thought Tesla was already working as hard as possible given the countless unmet FSD promises. Musk is running pretty low on credibility these days IMO….
Baidu the company the Chinese Government partnered Tesla with????
As of Q3 2022 has already done 1.4 million paid robotaxi rides
As of Q3 2023 4.1 million paid robotaxi rides
The Chinese Government has saved Musk and his Tesla company again
👇
Baidu starts offering nighttime driverless taxis
December 26, 2022
Starting this week, the public can ride its robotaxis in Wuhan between 7 am and 11 pm without safety drivers behind the wheel.
Previously, its unmanned vehicles could only operate from 9 am to 5 pm in the city.
The updated scheme is expected to cover one million customers in certain areas of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people. Like most autonomous vehicle startups, Baidu combines a mix of third-party cameras, radar and lidar to help its cars see better in low-visibility conditions, in contrast to Tesla’s vision-based solution.
In August, Baidu started offering fully driverless robotaxi rides, charging passengers at taxi rates.
In Q3, Apollo Go, the firm’s robotaxi hailing app, completed more than 474,000 rides, up 311% year over year.
Accumulatively, Apollo Go had exceeded 1.4 million orders as of Q3.
TC