Will America's new stealth fighter be shot down by cost already?
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- Опубликовано: 19 июн 2024
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-- BREAK --
America’s next stealth fighter, slated to replace the F-22 Raptor by the close of this decade, may no longer be a sure thing, as Air Force officials struggle to balance the ledger amid a long list of high-profile modernization programs.
Let's talk about what we know, and what this could mean for American Defense.
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Pretty Cool.
@SandboxxApp A L E X !!! Sorry for yelling. Use your clout to start a go fund me ( Or something similar but a little more formal and professional) for NGAD. I'm sure there is a lot of money that would come in. If people knew their dollars would actually go directly to this program.
A donation separate from tax dollars. I would definitely donate towards it.
says this and ignores the f35's lol which already partially replace the f22
Ahh yes CR spending. We were building an app for one of our lakes to upgrade their dock permit tracking. With no budget, no money in a time when we could have knocked it out by Christmas. Now it is having to share time with 3 or 4 other priorities and maybe the end of this FY?
So you'll know, it's Continuing Resolution not "continual".
It should be illegal to make omnibus bills. The reason why the defense bills get delayed is because people want to pour their unrelated-to-national-security pork into the defense budget.
Agreed, but this is largely a consequence of lobbying, if the wealthy PACs who backed the congressperson in question don't get their due, they'll drop them like a hot potato and pick someone who will.
Unfortunately, "ban lobbying" is something popular among the common people, but not so with our politicians.
@@gabethedespote-1105 what's sad is we all know this happens, what you're talking about in your comment/reply....but sadly nothing is done about it!!!!
@@gabethedespote-1105 lobbying is in turn incentivized by Congress ignoring the General Welfare clause and passing the crap the lobbyists want anyway.
we also want term limits, anti corruption investigators, stock market bans for politicians. But we ain't getting none of that, because that doesn't help the corrupt to be more corrupt. And there is no way to vote our way out of this, as both parties really love their corruption. Like, a lot.
This is why the US stays 20 years ahead of potential enemies... especially in Aircraft... everything else, not so much recently..
color me red, white and blue but if it's outclassing and setting the new global standards of air power then take my tax dollars 💀
Tariff dollars, we’ll make chyna pay for it
@@HubertofLiege And China will make you pay for theirs with tariffs.
if Donald Trump wins the election now in November, yes, then the US will buy Russian defense equipment, it is cheaper
MTG will be responsible
Your money was spent 20 years ago. At this point they're spending your great grandkids money.
Id pay double my taxes if it meant the air force could fly X wings
Ah yes, the only foe capable of taking down the USA’s military: budget constraints.
Thanks to soviet union for tapping out of the cold war 😂
It is the first and greatest enemy of all militaries
God dammit we need to be more like Russia and North Korea, just using all the money on military, those nations are great to live in...
@@authoritariangentleman7570 idk man, I heard the surface of Mercury is pretty competitive in terms of living conditions…
@@maniac117I do hope he is ironic
3:23 to skip the ad
T y
You can skip all the ad at 20:25
I kid.
Poor man's sp0nce or block :)
@@BoraHorzaGobuchul doing the lords work (manually)...
thx mate
Hard to evaluate the General's statement without the context of knowing the exact question he was answering.
That was my thought as well.
Agreed. That response could’ve been to somebody asking him if his wife had decided on a new car.
It was comments about timing and funding allotment for FY26... having to choose which programs to prioritize... reporter specifically asked about NGAD and he said that is one program that would have to be prioritized when it comes to spending. Cant put all eggs in 1 basket and not be able to pivot if threat assessments change... typical political answer... but they could cut back on some of the funding in 26, like the Navy did in 25, and add more back in in 27 or 28, just extending it out longer, to allow more upfront funding for other programs closer to production
@@johnoliver4739 Did he say this part "to allow more upfront funding for other programs closer to production"? That seems like the B-21 in all but name. I don't know anything about the Minuteman replacement timeline, tbf.
@@Varadiio Insanely over time, insanely over budget, and the Minutemen are insanely over their sell by date. So the perfect storm if you ascribe to chance someone waiting too long to do something about a problem that they have known about for over a decade. So less storm, more long line of can kickers.
Congress has been a major roadblock for defense acquisition for decades. The entire LCS program was a disaster entirely because of Congressional meddling. And the fact that fewer and fewer legislators have any actual military experience only makes their lack of understanding more problematic.
And the fact that the LCS was and still is a complete piece of garbage
TYVM
The blank check isn't enough?
You seriously have a problem with civilian oversight of the military?
How exactly have all of those officers that have gone before congressional committees and testified under oath that the LCS is a perfectly good and survivable ship(classes) been a fault of congressional meddling? The statement you made is so astoundingly stupid that I have to actually defend congress on something with is bizarre enough, but again, it wasn't just congress forcing the navy to buy theses things. Unless of course all the officers and DoD people testifying at, who knows, how many hearings were all not merely lying about the LCS and its abilities, but were up there lying as part of a scheme in conjunction with congress to lie about the lying.... Oh, I'm sorry, you're right. The US military is above reproach and things like corruption. They should be in charge of everything and we would have no problems.
@@timmilder8313Civilian governance isn't a problem. It's those who don't understand the military who are a problem.
Missing out on air dominance and superiority for the next several decades seems so shortsighted and ill advised I couldn’t believe we wouldn’t make NGAD. Gotta do it for the lore
Even though I gave your comment a 👍
...and how much do you pay for this content?
I just want to see NGAD fly
Why? The Ukraine war has shown that Russian aviation isn't nearly as good as projected. Ukraine is being armed with nearly 40 year-old F16s and these are likely to be equal to anything they Russians have. Russian planes aren't much of a match for older Patriot systems, older Soviet-era aircraft, etc. by a foe with a massive numeric disadvantage. Modern western missiles on far older aircraft, drones, older HIMARs, and other systems are easily destroying them. Further, Russia won't even be able to face the US with even these as its losing aircraft quickly and new aircraft production is in serious trouble due to sanctions, demographics, etc. There is little doubt that F15s, F22s, or F35s would decimate Russian aircraft in any actual fight against modern western air forces. China relies on copies of Russian tech and so they have all the same issues.
Exactly who is the US supposed to fight that it can't already defeat fairly easily?
I mean yes, but the thing is, the F-35 is meant to be able to be upgraded, and it's getting an insane upgrade as we speak. Over double the sensors, weapons payload near par with the F-22, an even crazier radar than it already has (and the radar has already been proven to be able to track, lock on to, and get a weapons solution on a cruise missile), new weapons that every plane that can carry them is getting, all in a package that comes back as a steel marble on radar from far away. And that's just the hardware upgrades. That's not including its capabilities. The radar can take missiles fired from 4th generation aircaft and guide them as the non stealthy aircraft goes cold. With the f-15 EX's insane weapons payload, that's an incredible recipe for air dominance. And I didn't even touch on all the other things the F-35 can do and all the upgrades it's getting.
@@BW022........can the USA Destroy a Tic tac lol....?
Not building NGAD is not an option because there is no substitute for air dominance. If theres one thing we learned in the modern era its that you either control the air or you lose the war so we'll have to bite the bullet and build this fighter without question.
Yes, but expensive jets are not the only way to achieve air dominance. Space and access to space is frequently more critical to mission success. The loyal wingmen and drones are proven to be supremely effective at saturating the airspace. What good are secret high energy radars and sensors if you can't counter all the threats.
Heck you could even put cheaper disposable radar jammers onto balloons or blimps for a fraction of the cost.
Ukraine says otherwise. So far, anyway.
@@zacnewman7140 Ukraine is a really small geographic area, you can’t really do bvr
@Snoop_Dugg ...oh, sorry, that was aimed at the OP.
@@Snoop_Dugg Ukraine is actually a pretty large land mass. BVR is only about 20miles. From west to east Ukraine is over 800miles.
Does anyone else involuntarily say "and THIS is Air Power" out loud? Prob not alone in this.
Yeah haha, it´s almost as iconic as that; "EA Sports: It´s in the game" line.
Aussie here. Its like my favourite American line ever and i have mastered the accent and say it in unison with the presenter. So yeah, you're not alone mate ;)
A video about the X65 and active flow control would be cool.
I second this.
If active control and RDE/RAM engines on the horizon. I actually don't blame them for not going all in on a new fighter that doesn't have these technologies!
A jet that flies without the typical flight surfaces would make one hell of a stealth fighter.
And the BAE Demon and its derivatives.
The first time I heard the projected price tag for the NGAD, I knew there was going to be a problem. They cut the Raptor buy by 75% and NGAD is not a better deal. There's one question the Pentagon needs to answer: Where are the long range, stealthy strike drones? The answer to that question is more than 50% of the solution to America's future air dominance.
Weren't that basically what the unmanned "wingman" concept was going to be? To go alongside NGAD. Were they a packaged deal or seperate programs?
@@extragoogleaccount6061Kind of both. NGAD is supposed to work with the various wingman things and have an unmanned variant of the NGAD
@@extragoogleaccount6061 Wingmen are going to accompany manned fighters to multiply a strike force. The strike drone I'm talking about has the role of today's fighter/bomber and is the main strike platform.
The long range stealthy strike drone is already in production. It’s called the B-21.
The X-47B was canned in 2015, but it fit that bill nicely. Stealthy, payload capable, and so friggin accurate that it wore down the non-skid on carriers because it kept hitting the same spot on the deck when landing.
We got a 6th generation fighter, before a 6th generation GTA.
Modularity and adaptability can be great, but beware the pitfalls demonstrated by the Navy's LCS ships.
That's what you get when you neglect all of your weapons systems for something like 35 years, and then insist on tax cuts for rich people.
Might I suggest the problem isn’t a lack of funds, so much as available funds having been wasted and used poorly. With the national debit still growing military might better not slip…. I mean it’s not like we have the manufacturing power we once did…
Weeeeeee doooooo thisssss alllll theeee timeeee. We spend billions upon billions in research and development. Then to turn around cut the program completely or the programs numbers. It’s so frustrating it’s no longer funny. We have no long term vision whatsoever.
The dollar is losing value fast, costs are going up up and up. Not to mention the new generation of engineers at all these major weapons companies aren’t prioritizing national security anymore like their forefathers that built the B-2s and F-22s. They were told to get into engineering for the money! They just want a check!
Lots of corruption going on as well. Lots of money to be made for individuals just for the program to be cut and never audited for frivolous spending
It's not like this r&d is lost though.
Actually this is part of that vision.
New programs are proposed as test beds for advanced technologies which are cutting edge.
Then we kill the program and deploy those technologies on future programs as cost becomes more manageable.
Its an element of strategic ambiguity, or more concisely, "The Kansas city Shuffle"
@@neo2190 Probably cause their grandpas and forefathers were able to afford houses and leisure for a tiny salary. Maybe that could have continued if their greed and gluttony didn't screw over every generation that came after?
My impression has been the original century series are not, as a whole, a group of particularly well-regarded fighters. In fact, they seem to get trashed a lot.
Alex, your title almost brought me to tears
Got a notice this time. Let's check it out.
Haven't you and everyone else said this about the last 10 fighters. F35 was going to be a shambles and never get off the ground according to most pundits.
In a an official statement from Lockheed/Martin they reiterated “working with UFO technology ain’t easy Sam, or cheap!”
Alex, it can be divided into 3 contracts: design, production, maintenance.
Hopefully the source code for the F-35 avionics can be handed out as part of this new century series, as it'll be a great way to reuse technology.
It's the first ever written in a modern programming language
Haha, Uncle Sam paid for that code but it's actually owned by Lockmart, who would be happy to lease it to us for a tidy profit.
@@briankeeley6464Uncle Sam should have required that all software developed for the F-35 project be licensed under the Gnu Public License.
Wrong
The US Government sounds like it learned the expensive mistake of privatized software access, so for the B21 and other future projects mandated government ownership of the source code.
I think the issue is more reputational. Lockheed is very busy with the F-35 and F-22 programs and well known to take longer at their programs then the brass would like. Boeing is in deep doodoo because of all their controversies, see T-7 Redtail, loose parts in tankers and all the crap in their civilian side as a few examples. Northrup Grumman is busy with the B-21 and the Naval NGAD programs. There is no contractor available with enough bandwidth to tackle the Airforce's NGAD program. Might be better for them to let the naval program develop and adopt a land based version of that.
Lockheed did something similar with the F35. A marine unit received 6 F35Bs , all of them had something wrong with them and it wasn't the same thing on all 6 but different things and multiple. Whoever was working on those jets did a "screw it" job. Lockheed can't even complete their refresh 3 so that Block 4 upgrades would be possible. Not only that a couple European countries received their first F35s and they received them in the most basic configuration when the contract stated it needs to be the latest tech version , it might have been The Netherlands , or Belgium or Denmark, I'm thinking the first one.
A lot of reason for these delays not widely researched by the general public but TR3 is essentially a new jet. Not a bandwidth issue but a cutting edge tech developmental delay issue.
Industry bandwidth isn’t the issue here, industry can ramp fairly quickly. It’s the veiled wishywashy nature of DoD development needs that leads to constant iteration, churn, and waste.
When there’s constant funding restraints and change orders, the talent leaves, equipment goes into storage, and ripples are felt 5 tiers down into the supply chain. Then some fool on the internet starts pointing fingers, gains media traction, pressurizes the DoD, then political pressure comes down hard on the program. It’s a tale as old as time.
@@wan3416 TR3 isn't a new jet at all. Just a new computer and related systems. Older versions can and will be upgraded to TR3.
This was deeply informative. It was shocking to learn that NGAD was being downgraded in budget priorities. But now you provide an excellent explanation which renders the inexplicable explicable. Thank you, sir.
I don’t see how you’d be able field new fighters so often like the digital century series when suffering tax cuts so often.
So many budgetary compromises are being made because of the tax cuts. I’m okay with paying more taxes to pay for the tech that would put us back on top. I’ve always, and will always vote against tax cuts.
Well you're a minority, because the majority don't want tax increases.
They gave up on the Century Series idea a while ago
We still are on top.
@@cadennorris960 You have to put aside your pride for this. The Chinese government released a statement shortly before the U.S. announced the NGAD delays. Supposedly the Chinese are set to reveal their 6th generation fighter by the end of this year.
America is not getting a next generation fighter, Mr. Norris. This is the ultimate sign of decline in our Republic.
Lol, you have the biggest _and_ second-biggest airforces on this planet.
You are very much already on top.
(and since I live in a tiny NATO country, I hope it stays that way)
What people need to realize is that development as a whole, not just fighter craft, doesn't need to be state of the art. We don't need a fighter that can keep pace with hypersonic missiles, we need a fighter that can keep pace with progress. We see it with the F-22 not being able to integrate with data links and take IRST units, despite it having been the best air superiority fighter that money could buy. Things need to have an open architecture that can take future technologies, otherwise they won't stay superior for their projected lifespan.
There is a little photo failure at 10:57 concerning the Century-Series of US fighters: that's not a F 106 Delta Dart at the bottom of the right side! Round air intakes with spikes, firmly mounted fuel probe protruding to the right side, round non-edged form of the cockpit canopy, Matra R 500 Magic Air to Air missiles and MBDA Mica RF or IR variant air to air missiles under each wing, an engine exhaust that doesn't fit to a F-106 Pratt & Whitney J75-17 (F- 106A) turbofan nozzle. And last but not least: the F-106 Delta Dart had no centerline pylon for a fuel tank!! Nope, this is a French Mirage 2000 (may be the C variant) single seater with US-markings! Best regards from Germany.👋
"Iii'm Ahlex Hollings... and THIS is AIRPOWWWWERRRR!!"
No your not. Stop lying! 😁
lol @ 10:56 the F-106 Delta Dart is actually a skin for the Mirage 2000C from Warthunder.
Thanks.
I was scrolling through the comments to confirm this.
it feels criminal to be this early to an edition of airpower
How early do you think you are? Just watch the video and learn something should be the objective.
@@JSFGuy didn't mean to sound rude or anything.
swear, normally i’m about 6-8 months behind because there’s so much to watch😅
10:57 Damn, that F-106 Delta Dart is damn sexy, but that's because it's actually a Mirage 2000.
Well done! When I realized the F-106 was a mirage, I went back and checked the other planes.
Wasn't the century series acquisition model the reason why we didn't get a dedicated air superiority fighter for a long time since the F-86 until the F-15?
The F4 came before the f15
@@tbe0116 the F-4 wasn't a dedicated air superiority aircraft, it was used for the role sure, but wasn't designed with that in mind from the get go unlike the F-86 and F-15.
The way Ive heard it, the Multirole concept was more the culprit bc it suddenly became harder to sell dedicated purpose aircraft bc a bunch of uneducated politicians decided Air Superiority was something Multirole fighters could do.
The bomber mafia lives.
@@tbe0116
Funny the F4 started as a Navy program. And all the century fighters are Air Force.
The Air Force was pre occupied in the 1950s and into the 1960s with Strike, nuclear Strike. This left America totally unprepared for the tactical battle field in Vietnam. Wrong aircraft, wrong doctrine, wrong command structure. Have things changed? The Airforce still wants big, expensive, sharp pointy Mach 2 stealth aircraft to blow up a Toyota pickup.
This should come as a bit of a relief. Boeing wasn't content with just screwing the entire commercial air industry and passenger base over, they're now stranding astronauts in space as a bonus. We cannot afford the possibility (50% at this point) that they would get the contract.
How dare you slander Boeing, a patriotic weapons maker. It is treasonous to speak ill of our military industrial complex. Next to the Bible and the NRA, they are untouchable and like President Trump, above the law and immune to criticism. I'm reporting you to my local MAGA chapter.
Glad to see you placing this at the feet of Congress.
Blame the Freedom Caucus. They don't have actual plans or policies beyond attempting to shut down the government
It's not the fault of Congress as a whole, new is Republicans, who block anything from getting done - even if it's something they want - or even someone they largely had a hand in creating - simply to prevent progress during a Democratic administration. They're insane.
The US Army "just" chose General Dynamics and Rheinmetall as finalists for the 4000 Bradley replacement IFVs.
Could you do a Firepower series video about this program, the two finalists and the other three that dropped out. Or more generally the current state of IFVs (Bradley, CV90, Puma, Lynx) and their most likely future. Maybe even including anti air IFVs like some CV90 variants and SkyRanger.
IFVs aren't going anywhere.
You have made this same request to Alex several times already. Perhaps you should send this request to Cappy at his Task and Purpose page? He was part of a Stryker vehicle team.
fact is all this public information is 10-20 years behind what is actually available .....its like seeing the stars at night ,what your actually seeing happened a VERY long time ago
The issue is if you buy a "short term" fighter with the intention of replacing it fast, you can guarantee the next administration will take the saving by not replacing it.
Note to the editor: Chill the f*@# out with the intro music volume. I cannot comprehend why editors always have to have the volume of music so much louder than the narration. You just blasted the hell out of my hear drums for no damn reason
To be fair, there are a lot of new stuff that can be applied to the 35 and 22 for massive upgrades: new durable stealth coatings, new engines that are more fuel efficient, GaN AESA.
All those 3 can make provide a big perf leap to the F-35 without any crazy complex project.
Lockheed can't even fix their software so that F35 can be upgraded to Block 4... have you see Block 4 upgrades , it's like science fiction but if 3rd refresh isn't happening for the software Block 4 isn't happening either.
Brilliant overview as always, thankyou, Alex!
34T$ in debt. 100T$ in unfunded liabilities. 1T$ additional in debt accruing every 100 days. We're printing more than we can borrow.
Yeah, expensive toys are looking to be on the chopping block. We have no choice.
They just put pen to paper and they announced a two year delay
Source? Didn’t see anything in news
Probably because they need to build drones and missiles. But where are the people working on it going to go for two years?
If we don’t build and field the NGAD fighter I’m moving to Canada.
Canada just bought 70 F-35's.
Hang around. Politics might have us becoming Canada.
I went to ground news not using your link and savings. Than went using your link. Both were identical same savings, no difference. I love your shows,think your great ar what you do. Just thought you might want to know this. Loyal subscriber
Alex is so diplomatic. “Cultural inertia.” Love it.
Continuing resolution, not continual resolution...
That was driving me nuts. :)
Considering the apparent capabilities and lack of success with the US’ primary opponents, Russia and China, they could’ve also decided they just don’t need the NGAD just yet. Neither the SU-57 or J-20 struggle to even partially duplicate the F-117’s stealth performance. And maybe they could theoretically match the F-22 in agility/maneuverability etc…but that’s much use when you can’t even tell if you’re being targeted.
Russia’s land army is in shambles, it’s navy is almost non-existent. China’s army and navy might be in better shape, but their ability to send it anywhere is next to non-existent and they seem to be struggling with building reliable and effective aircraft carriers.
Yeah, but that assumes Chinese leadership is sane. As we can seen in Russia's example, people who stay in power for too long, particularly in an autocracy, tend to get drunk on power and own propaganda, and make insane decisions once they decide they're invincible
China's ability to project power globally is nonexistant because that isn't the war they are planning on fighting. They want Taiwan, and other than that they are geared entirely defensively and plan to influence the globe via economy.
The US has a big problem against China right now in that they have a lot of very capable anti-air and anti-ship missiles that makes any conflict with China very costly. Perhaps the B-21 will help negate a lot of that, but I can't help but feel leaving a gap in the air dominance modernization category isn't negligible. At the same time, perhaps the other capabilities they are considering putting money towards instead will better counter China's current missile advantage than an airframe designed to deal with other airframes.
ICYMI, China is CRANKING OUT J-20s! Meanwhile, Russia is producing Su-57s; granted, they're producing them slowly, but they can still produce them. As Alex said, we'll never get another F-22. So, there's that...
@@markymarknj+1000 social credit for you
@@markymarknj the Russian su57 is something that could be easily dealt with with existing assets, they're just "dressed up" su-35. And they're never going to produce a significant amount of those. They can't even build their t-14 tanks for financial reasons (as stated by their officials, I assume they have other reasons for that such as shortage of critical electronics due to sanctions). A plane is harder to produce and it's much more expensive.
China is an issue at least due to their quantitative advantage, so if not ngad, at least CCAs need to be mass produced and control of those implemented in f-35, f-22, f-15ex and other aircraft.
Mind you, I'm pretty sure the Chinese overstate both capability and quantity, but it's better to overprepare in their case.
I have seen the demonstrator flying already. The capability is where it needs to be for further development.
Only problem would be the logistics of parts for all these different aircraft as many would be overlapping in service.
What about the F/A-XX ?
Largely made obsolete by by email.
@@AlexAnteroLammikkogood one but you need to realize what you did
NGAD = refurbished B-52 (B-52 J)
Dale Brown: Flight of the New Old Dog
I guess this was supposed to be funny, right?
I am a Military Avionics Test Engineer and I was shaking my head through most of this video thinking "This'll never work" until he started talking about the Gambit procurement method. That sounds like the way to go. Only upgrading systems that need it every 5 years will keep the NGAD current and the costs, which are gonna be high, down to manageable levels. Just my opinion, take it or leave it.
Great Content as usual
Never should’ve cancelled the F-22 program. Never should’ve started the NGAD and F-35 programs until the aging fleet of fighters were replaced with F-22s and their potential variants.
the f-35 was mired in delays, partly due to the us military constantly changing requirements. that's part of the problem: the us military is being too indecisive on what they want.
the us navy's ngad is fortunately not suffering this fate, bc they first decided on what tech before proceeding to the airframe surrounding it. that tho comes on the heels of a large number of similar failures around ships bc of the same indecisiveness problems the army and air force are having
lol it’s how engineering projects work. The scope changes all the time. It is not remotely unusual and the ones complaining are the ones furthest removed from the world of technology development
@@wtbanation6268 You can still improve technology without having to scrap entire assembly lines and redirect them towards other projects. I’m just trying to provide alternatives to help fix costs is all. Besides, you don’t always need to be innovating something new every two months if you can gate keep your opposition(something that the U.S. doesn’t seem to want to do these days).
We have more Governmenet than we know what to do with. We need to cut spending in all areas.....
Most based comment here
The government is a country within a country, loyal only to itself.
@@RavenRunFoxRoambasically no more 3 letter agencies🙏
@@CodyseusRexYou would love to see no CIA, FBI, AID, DIA, etc wouldn’t you Kremlin bot?
I really appreciate your videos. Thank you, Alex. I think they are amazing.
10:57 that Delta Dart is one helluva Mirage
Might I suggest the problem isn’t a lack of funds, so much as available funds having been wasted and used poorly. Couple that with poor choices in government effecting inflation quite badly, and the national debit still growing military might better not slip…. And I’m not reffering to the last administration or two… since about the 60s some really stupid economic choices have been made and continue to cost us…
Whenever I hear "modular" regarding military spend I think about money burning.
Modular, a misnomer for more expensive, doesn’t fit or …
Another outstanding video sir. Your animation has become world class.
If I'm not mistaken, the US spends significantly less on defense nowadays, as a percentage of GDP, than it did during the Cold War. The world is changing rapidly, getting arguably more frought and more dangerous than it has ever been, so lawmakers and the public need to face reality and start significantly increasing the defense spending and make it a priority by passing funding bills on time. All the dithering over the defense authorization and the constant effort to slash defense spending needs to stop. Otherwise, I fear we're going wind up living in a world we dont recognize. Just imagine what the world would be like if Germany and Japan had won WW2. I dont think we want to find out what their modern-day contemporaries will do.
They dug themselves in a hole with the F-22. It was an incredible aircraft that came at the wrong time and now they're stuck with a limited number of aging aircraft that never had the chance to live up to their potential. They'd be best off cutting their losses and making something new but the sunk cost fallacy is very strong, especially for politicians
The issue isn’t sunk cost it is that we could go to war any day now (not trying to be an alarmist, I doubt we will go to war any time soon) and if we divest the F22 fleet without a replacement ready then we’d lack a dedicated air superiority fighter. We need both a replacement and modernization of the F22 in the meantime but the money apparently just isn’t there. We could easily raise our defense budget to 4% or 5% of our GDP.
@@cadennorris960 exactly. until we have an F-22 replacement, retiring the F-22 would be ridiculously irresponsible.
Sunk cost fallacy doesn't apply to the F-22, it already exists and is operational.
@@SoloRenegadeThe point is as time goes on the f22s ability reduces in comparison to advisaries
The sunk cost is the money that's gone into developing the platform and how that affects future investment to maintain and upgrade its capability in an environment that is advancing against it.
@@jonathanbowen3640 keeping the F-22 on has NOTHING to do with "sunk cost". Sunk cost does not apply here.
we have to keep the F-22 since we have no suitable replacement yet. Cost has nothing to do with it. It's about loss of capabilities when teh world is on the edge of war.
It need a multiple test before it can have a green lights to be in service.
You don't think that the USA is already running innumerable tests before giving a green light to a new military product??? 😅
Come on guys. We've got all the tech to build it. We've got all the parts in inventory. Flight controls, got it. Weapons platforms, covered. Pilots, dozens. All the electronic weapons are already in use. Remote pilots, in high school right now. Lazers, testing now and almost complete. Stealth materials, in common use presently. Data links, perfected and upgradeable. Form seems to be the only thing left. Affordability is the only thing the government can't seem to wrap it's head around. Too many cost overruns so everybody gets their own piece of the pie. That's where the expense is really at.
Fantastic as usual Alex.
We need a super F35. Bigger wings for fuel, and weapons.
Its called the f35c lol
Dont worry, us Brits will always sell you Tempest.
When will you have a real plane?
@@jqmachgunner2577next year (edit 2027) something will fly, then roughly ten years it would enter service. Getting a flying plane is not actually that difficult. It's all the other stuff that the craft would have to do and how to actually build and maintain it that's the tricky part.
@jonathanbowen3640 The USAF reports it is already testing NGAD features on F-22 test planes such as stealth attack drones that will fly under the control of F-22, F-35, B-21, and NGAD jets, projected hologram decoys that will divert any missiles, and laser beam weapons (which will enable the B-21 bomber to attack targets and protect itself.
Maybe if the arms manufacturers didn't pay 3 thousand bucks a pop for a simple spanner these planes wouldn't cost so much!
Build a new fighter model five years? After a few iterations of that, maintenance would become a nightmare.
Indeed. That would create a much larger number of spare parts needed and put a massive burden on logistics, which is a terrible idea. Do not put unnecessary burdens on logistics!
I get the feeling that the Pentagon is pushing for the fully 3D printed fighter industry...
That's not possible
@@lukeamato423 your obviously not well versed in determining possible from Improbable or how often Improbable actions are taken from military actors with big budgets.
@@user-qr8xq8gn2e bud I literally did prototyping for l3 Harris, Lockheed ...wescam , Asc signal and many others
@lukeamato423 Even Musk is using 3D printing on his rockets
If you want the budget passed on time, vote blue💙
Hahahahaha no difference
There is no difference
💜💜💜 Voting Blue.
@@ZaphodOddly😂😂 well congratulations do you want a cookie?
@@economiccrisis9267well there is a difference, if you vote blue you know that military equipment is going to get used or given to another country for them to use. They're all about funding that military industrial complex
The same thing that happened to the F-22 is going to happen to the NGAD or whatever. They'll initially order hundreds while it's still in development/testing. Then Congress/USAF/whatever will go, "Oh my god, this is way too expensive. Slash the order." Then the price will go up because they slashed the order number. Then they'll cut more because the per-unit price went up. And instead of having several 750 F-22s, we ended up with less than 200. And because the initial price of NGAD is even more expensive, we'll have either a B-2/B-21 or B-1-esque fleet of NGADs/6th gens. Calling it now.
Ouch!! At ~ 11 minutes, you showed a Mirage in the F-106 box, when discussing Century Series aircraft...😅
Imagine the room in the budget if we werent spending BILLIONS on people who illegally entered the country and are getting thousands in aid every month.
Where do you get the illegal immigrants get any form of aid? Literally every aide program in this country has as a precondition that you have to be a legal citizen. Fox News is lying to you, they have been for years they don't care about you they don't care about American values they care about their profits and nothing more. Don't be lazy do the research yourself. If you're watching this RUclips channel you're definitely intelligent enough to do so.
Remember the old adage; believe nothing that you hear and only half of what you see.
China is making their own sixth gen fighter. Therefor we will too.
'sixth gen fighter' but yes, I get the spirit of your take
china is *stealing* their *pieced together* *4th gen* "fighter" therefore *we were going to make ours anyway*
I dought they are.
China doesn't even have a true 5th generation fighter yet.
Adapt, adapt, adapt!! ten four. Enjoyed the whole show, as always, thanks.
The interest payments on the debt are already higher than the entire defense budget, 2nd biggest expense behind SS/Medicare
"Digital Century" would have allowed us to have the YF-23... Not necessarily the actual fighter. However, we would not had to leave an equally qualified fighter to scrap. Or the Super Tomcats would have been viable. Especially as both the Super Tomcats and YF-23 are ironically better qualified for the foreseeable combat criteria emerging.
That we will have more working designs that could be leveraged toward foreseeable threats and challenges much more quickly. This would also mean having an all-in-one superplane will not be an absolute requirement. Although that will not stop the occasional F-14 from springing up now and then.
This actually makes a lot of sense and with the UK starting to take more responsibility for developing its own hardware I hope we follow a similar path.
With technology accelerating like never before and with a new East-West arms race apparently beginning, no military in their right mind should be looking to keep the same aircraft, tanks, etc. in service for decades.
Developing vehicles with interchangeable modular designs that can be upgraded as needed makes it far easier to keep front line equipment on the cutting edge without the mammoth R&D costs and production times. As Alex said, it also gives smaller companies a chance to show what they can do...plus more competition helps keep costs down.
Cover future Awacs would be pretty cool. Ty
The Air Force needs NGAD no matter what.
they stop production of f22 too early
even is its not used in NGAD, it would work with the drone swarm flying with it...
Wow great analysis
I can’t help but wonder and worry about the potential implications of moving to ~5 year lifespan airframes from a pilot training and proficiency standpoint. It takes a lot of time and resources to train pilots on a specific airframe, and even more time for pilots to become very proficient on that airframe. Shorter airframe operational life seems to me to mean frequent retraining, and less experienced pilots. Now I do admit that as technology continues to progress, the amount of training required to transition between airframes may decrease significantly, but I can’t imagine the need to retrain would ever go away entirely. I just find this aspect of the whole idea of moving to shorter lifespan airframes hard to explain around, at least on the surface. I’m very curious what everyone else’s thoughts on this are.
Nice one mate
I would bet at least one of the "difficult decisions" is manned or unmanned. There's increasingly smaller advantages to manned over unmanned, and the pricing is 10 to 1 or more in favor of unmanned. New stealthy unmanned drones can accomplish everything the manned aircraft can and the F22's and F35's will remain viable in standoff mode until drones have cleared the battle space sufficiently to allow the manned aircraft to enter.
Alex, your content is some of the best on the whole interweb. You should be proud of the work you produce. (If only the entire internet was of this quality!)
In the end korean KF-21 makes way more sense now. Most of cutting edge US weapons end up severely over initial budget because of the desire to implementation too much new features. Next gen helicopters, Zumwalt destroyers, Constelation fregates, LCS ships, F-22 and 35,.....
If we could actually cut out the waste, we could fund more than we do now and save money!!
Very interesting update. A lot is riding on the Air Force to make the correct decision on future accessions.
Nothing says war footing like a wartime design and production strategy.
Best military journalism on the internet.
I think they can hold out for 6yrs and use that time to incorporate new tech then bring it out.
Pratt & Whitney F135 engine, in the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, produces 28,000 lbf (125 kN) of thrust without afterburner and 43,000 lbf (191 kN) with afterburner. 2 in F22 and job done.
From a systems POV, the swarm scenario as a system is an example of how a higher organism generally allows each component to be _less_ fit than a single entity that must survive on its own. So a proper analysis should drive a design where each plane, whether piloted or not, can be cheaper than any Gen 5 fighter. IOW drop features from the key manned fighter and make it the same as the wingmen except for optional manning. This plus modularity should result in a cheaper, not more expensive architecture.
Political and budgetary uncertainty says it all.
I love the thumbnail so much.