How the NHL Draft Lottery Works (May 8, 2023)
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- Опубликовано: 29 июл 2024
- The NHL team that finishes the regular season with the fewest points has the best odds.
That team will hold a 25.5 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the lottery. The odds for the team with the second-worst record drops to 13.5 percent, and the chances gradually drop for all 16 teams that do not qualify for the postseason.
However, as part of the NHL's changes to the lottery system implemented in 2022, only the bottom 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Teams can jump a maximum of 10 spots in the draft lottery. Thus, if the team with the 16th worst record in the league won the lottery, it would jump only to the No. 6 spot.
Teams are randomly assigned four-digit combinations that are computer generated. Numbered balls are placed into the lottery machine and four balls are drawn at 15-second intervals. The team with the winning combination is awarded the pick.
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Very good description. To clarify, no team is allowed to improve their position MORE THAN 2 times in 5 years. The Canadiens won the lottery last year but as the last place team, did not improve their position.
More than twice. Montreal won last year. They're still eligible to win the lottery again
@@JHockeyFan yes they could win 2 more times
NJ was very lucky, they improved their position in 2017,2019 and 2022. 3 times in 6 drafts. Sounds like it paid off this year.
Wait so since the Canadians won the lottery last year, but then improved this year by not being last (5th last), does that mean they're still eligible to win 1st pick again or are they completely out of it?
@@baldbearded9601 Also from NHL website: Limit on Teams Winning a Lottery Draw:
No single team will be able to advance in the Draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two (2) times in any five (5) year period.
I understand that "advance in the Draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw" means that the last team in the final standing even though they win, they don't advance in the order.
Well!!! anyway let's see on may 8th!
I will never be totally confident that this whole procedure is legit until and unless they do all the mystical behind-the-curtain ball selecting out in the open on the stage before the cameras rather than having Buttman or Daly come out and holding the "here's what happened" cards up.
Oh really they don't show the ball-machine? O.o
No, that stinks. Omitting transparency always tastes like fraud.
@@im3phirebird81 They do upload the actual drawing, usually the next day. The problem is that the drawing takes long enough that it doesn't fit very well into a time slot, due to the time spent reading out the rules, showing the balls being put into the machine (one at a time), and having to spend 20 seconds between each individual ball being drawn. Not to mention the small chance of the same team being drawn in the first and second draws which results in a third draw.
Sports is a business, and capitalism sucks.
exactly this. show us the whole process. why all the behind curtains nonsense! not gaining fans during this highlight event!
ruclips.net/video/0PgCHEoNa3w/видео.html
Finally! this is by far the best video on YT explaining how the NHL Draft works! Wow...I only had to watch it once and I understood how it works. Congrats mate!
teams can win the lottery twice in five years, just not more than twice. And it only counts if your position moves up, ex) Canadiens could win two more times because their position was already last in 2022 so winning the lottery didn't move them up.
Thanks that's helpful.
wow isn't that a slip up from its intended purpose for maintainig 2 out of 5yrs policy?
Great video made me stay until the end and subscribed. Thanks for breaking it down it's very easy to understand if you are a moderate NHL fan.... Also Bedard to Vancouver please, and I'm not even a Canucks fan.
the sharks had just ONE job, which was to lose and get the last place and they couldn't even do that shit right lol...
The Red Wings rule. You don't get the no. 1 pick if you are part of the draft lottery. 😀
I know I'm still pissed we got robbed
Not surprised if Bettman rigs it and gives the number 1 pick to the coyotes to save their franchise
Or Cali
@oasisbeyond Nah they won't put McDavid and Bedard in the same division.
That is excatly what's going to happen with a new building coming and Auston Matthew's ready to jump ship from the Leafs and join Bedard as their franchise players
Never gonna happen, it would be a waste of money. Their stadium only sits 5,000 people.
@Lolo G FYI they are getting a new one built and the one they are playing in is only temporary.
Pretty good explanation. I would encourage everyone to watch the 2022 video of them drawing the ping pong balls. Personally I found it more entertaining than the actual lottery show, especially if you have the packet with the combinations listed out. Basically you can pause the video after the first 3 ping pong balls are drawn and determine what remaining numbers would result in what team winning and have some instant drama. In the show the drama can be from a team being omitted when they are revealing the cards which isn't as exciting in my opinion.
Surprised Brodie didn't mention the NHL releases lottery videos as evidence and I agree, the actual lottery is more interesting than the picks reveal.
I remember when they broadcast the balls live. Does this happen anymore?
Great explanation. Draft is the day after my birthday and i have the day off. Come on Fantilli 🤞🤞
Which team do you like?
So the Avs in 17 couldn't pick first that year because of MacKinnons 1 overall pick in 13 is that correct?
correct me if Im wrong.. but ANA odds are more than 25%?? like 25% + all the odds of the 12-16th team no?? thanks
Thank you for explaining. There's so many things idk about my favorite sport. Been watching for 34 yrs. and I still don't know things that I know about every other sport.
Thanks for making this video. Who would have thought this complicated? Understand the league wants to prevent tanking and making the draft fair. I followed Sharks from 1991 to 2019. I am coming back!
what happens with the Canadiens Panther pick? how does that work?
Who witnesses the actual ping pong ball process and why won't they show it live on TV?
It's hard to support a team that can't even lose right.
The Atlantic wrote a super great article about the last season for the sharks. We are lucky to have a 1 in 3 chance for the top four. Even though if we had 4 less points we'd have a 100% chance for a top 4. And this is the best top four in history according to the Atlantic
Best top 4 in history? I think this might be the best top 6 in history. Can't believe my Nucks were tied with the Sharks in points just 2 or 3 months ago and then management/ownership did the dumbest things possible by firing their coach, waiving a goalie that lost 10 straight, buying instead of selling at the deadline and so many more dumb moves just to finish 11th worst. They have zero chance at any of the top 6 now minus a slim slim chance at the top 2 and only by winning the lottery at that.
Hey how about reds wings. Worst record in three years and roll. Lotto pick. 6-6-5 this year what is the record seven. Picks 9
Is the draft lottery being broadcasted live ?
I think there is an error on number 7. It looks that Montreal is eligable to get the first pick again this year. I'm wrong?
You are not wrong. The verbiage should say a team can't win the lottery MORE THEN twice in 5 years
@@andrewweiss9355 More over, "A team cannot IMPROVE their pick position MORE THEN twice in 5 years." Meaning that a team could pick 1st 5 years in a row if they finish last each of these years AND win the 1st lottery round.
Thanks Brodie 🎉
Great 👍 Brodie. I sort of get it😮. The first draw is for 1 through 16. I don't get the 4 digit part?
If Columbus were to win the draw , is the draw like ball #2 came out ? or is the CBJ assigned a digit or team logo? Thank you 😊 💓I think 🤔 I sort of got it.
4 coaded ping pong 🏓 balls ? how for example. What is exactly on the four balls.
@@royanderson3478 The balls have the numbers 1 to 14 on them. Four of those get picked in each draw. The result is that there are 1001 possible combinations (the order the balls are drawn in does not matter). Each combination is assigned to a team except 11-12-13-14 - in that case there is a re-draw.
Teams can still continually get the 1st overall pick if they finish dead-last in the standings, the rule only applies if a team moves up in lottery results to win 1st multiple times.
What a Cluster!!!!!
I didnt get it.... a team cannot move more than 10 places so that means the worst team - team 16th can only move max Upto 7th pick position ( 10 positions max move gives 7th if counted from 16th ) ?
So
16th to max 7th pick position
15th to max 6th pick position
14th to max 5th pick position
13th to max 4th pick position
12th to max 3rd pick position
That means only the teams ranked 1 to 11th are only eligible to move to max 2nd or max 1st pick position ?
So if thats the case .. how will the bottom 4 teams or just the last team ever get 1st Pick ? Coz even if their number comes up in lottery they cannot move up to that position as they are only allowed to move max 10 ?
Is my understanding correct ?
#3 is very confusing.. in one breath he says that
only top 11 teams are eligible.. that means 12 to 16th teams ( worst teams ) are not eligible right ?
Now if the lottery does come up for teams 12 to 16th, the first pick remains with the worst team. Wait ... worst team is team 16 right ? But didn't you say that 12 to 16 are not eligible for first pick ....
That's funny cause when Detroit was last in the league a few years ago they picked 4th. That's not a top 3 pick.
They changed the rules since then.
Question: Is this lottery selection done in front of an audience? Or at least with a camera following the proceedings? You get a number of fans insisting the lottery is rigged, that Gary Betman somehow secretly determines who will pick first, blah blah blah, and I'm wondering what steps exist to insure that it's all on the up and up.
Each lottery team has a representative in the room where the drawing takes place, and it is done on camera. Usually the draw gets uploaded later that day or the next day.
Funny thing this year’s draft lottery takes place the day before the 1st Semi Final of the 67th Eurovision Song Contest
Bedard MAY be the biggest prospect over the past 40 plus years. Anyone who has seen the highlights of Bedard's regular season or watched his playoff games knows this guy has the POTENTIAL to be the best since Gretzky. We shall see if he pans out.
Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Auston Matthews have entered the chat
@@EliteEklund7272 auston matthews? 😭
Mcdavid? He had more points in the ohl than him… Sidney Crosby did the record of the q and was captain of Rimouski océanique at the age of 13… he will not be close to Gretzky that’s just a lie because of the hype when he get drafted the hype will go down very fast he will be good but not that good I think he will be auston Matthews but better type of player like 40 goals scorer and maximum 130 points
@@manu-animation-924 oh poor guy only 130pts
Regardless who picks Bedard he will still be a raw NHL rookie. It will take him two to three years to acclimate to the NHL game. How much time did Shane Wright spend in Seattle this year.
I am confused by rule 7 - Teams cannot win lottery 2x in 5 yr span. Habs won last yr and according to their standing, they have a 8.5% chance at #1 but this rule says no. What is the Habs situation really?
Starting in 2022… this is year 2
@brodiebrazil the miscommunication is the verbiage. A team can not win the lottery MORE THEN twice. You are able to win it twice in a 5 year span. So montreal has the ability to win it this year, but if they do, they won't be able to again until 2026 or 2027
Unfortunately, your rule #7 is not accurate. The NHL site says : "Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total."
So a team can win twice in a 5 year period.
Just curious, so based on rule #7, habs can't get another 1st pick right?
I was asking myself the same question. I think it's an error here cause Montreal are eligable to get the first pick on the Mock draft this year.
They make this far more complicated than it has to be 🤣
yeah and does not help increase the fan base as I know many who lose faith in the lottery draft being fair!?
what's unclear to me is, IF Montreal win the lottery, when could they hypothetically pick first again? in 3 years? or in 5 years? since they are the first team with a first pick since this rule has been put in place.
Who cares let them win Bedard they will be beasts in 2 years for a long time :) #Gohabsgo we need our first SuperStar since Lafleur.
What happens if the #12 team wins the lottery and moves up to number 2? Is the next lottery for number #3?
That’s a really good question 🤔
Yes, as they do 2 drawings, and no team can fall more than 2 spots. So 2nd draw determines #3 pick, with Ducks keeping #1 then.
I dont know too many people who even trust the next draft. The way Bettman looked last year when he said Montreal won the lottery. Was like they planned for another team and his intern brought him the wrong slide or something.
Bedard is going to Arizona. Regardless of the odds. Bettman wouldnt be working so hard to keep the team going.
I think Gary decided long ago who gets first pick
Would he really yew that?
What about the Habs winning the lottery last year? Aren't they elligible for Bedard?
Very good explanation of this. Thing is there is no guarantee if you get that first pick you will develop that player into a super star in any sport. I don't like any of these QB'S in the NFL draft this year and I think in 4 or 5 years you may be looking to draft a new qb. Murray is proof that what they do in college will not possibly happen in the NFL. College you can cover up the short comings at the pro level everything is equal. Murray is failing because he is not a film room guy or puts in the effort to be better.
There is a guarantee this year though. We already know that the top pick in this year's NHL draft will at worst fall way down to being a good NHL player. By all scouting metrics he will be a superstar though and quickly. It would be a huge disappointment for him to just be a good player. We're not talking about a guy who needs to develop, we're talking about a guy who can step in this upcoming season and be successful in the NHL and within a few years of experience and adding strength be one of the top players in the game. That's why everyone wants him.
This vid is about NHL 😉
Is the rule #7 ``Teams can not win the lottery twice in a five year span. (begining with the 2022 lottery)`` mean that the Montreal Canadiens cannot draft Connor Bedard because they had the first choice last year ?
His rule #7 is wrong.
Here's how it actually works Bettman rigs the results! (sarcasm)
How About the Blackhawks can they possibly fall out of the top three
Yeah they can place 1-5
Blackhawks.overall.1.pick.🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Yeah that’s dumb, didn’t know it was that confusing. Should have bottom 5 teams only, #5 gets 1 ball, #4 gets two balls, 3 gets 3, 2 gets 4, 1 gets 5.
"More screwed up than Chinese music!" to quote Thayrone X of WAAM 1600
They made it's too convoluted. Just break the 16 worst teams into 4 groups by order of worst to best. Then for each group of 4, do a lottery with the worst team of in the same group (of 4) having 70% chance winning that group, each of the other 3 teams having 10% chance to win (70-10-10-10=100%. For 2nd spot: repeat again this time 70-15-15. Then 70-30. The process is done for all 4 groups (16 teams total).
Brodie, you missed stating one important fact. At 4th to last, what are the odds on the Sharks landing the 1st pick? ...Sharkthrower
9.5% I believe
All this draft is due to the Edmonton Oilers drafting #1 in 2010, 2011, and 2012
The NHL draft is fixed. Many FSTH believe this
there was no explanation of how the percentages are determined. why does the worst team have a 25% chance? what is the formula? also, they pick a ping pong ball, or four of them. do the teams all get a four digit number? or 2 sets of four digit numbers? this was not explained at all. the other rules or not hard to understand and are simple in fact. the reason i come to youtube is for you to explain the details true details.
It's fixed!
That is wrong a team can win the lottery 2 times in a 5 years span... the correct statement is: "a team cannot win it MORE than twice in a 5 years span"
No, he got it right.
To me, its all just a show unless we see the combination sheets ourselves. Anybody can just say who won, but if we dont see the combination sheet, the entire process is a sham. However if we do see the combo sheet, there is no excuse to the legit of the draft lottery.
The NHL draft lottery is a running joke among major professional sports. The fact is, it Doesn't work.
I think the NHL should make the first 5 picks via ping pong balls. Worst team would pick no lower than 5th.
I can’t believe the hawks got #1. I’m absolutely shocked. 🤯
It’s simple when the league needs an failing franchise to keep relevant in their market or help nhl profits they get the no 1 pick
The Sharks could not even do a good job of tanking. The team did well enough to make it a near-worthless endeavor and severely limited their chances of obtaining a top 3 pick. SMH.
Love my sharks... But we know this is "par for the course" for them.
Detroit red wings always get screwed.why is the NHL always against mr.illich team.
Why bother having balls for the 12-16 teams at all?
There isn''t any "team" balls, just 1000 combinations available. The order doesn't matter, so ball numbers 3, 7, 9 and 12 in that order would be same as 9, 3, 12 and 7 in that order.
Its to controll who get the nr. 1 pick.
And I thought Algebra was difficult.
I thought it was a team can't win more than twice in a five year span...?
So MTL can’t win? They won last year
Yeah I think he messed up there
@@OhYaSure They can win
@@OhYaSure More than twice. So Montreal can win it twice in a five year span but is ineligible to win it a third time. Let's say Montreal won first overall again this year after winning it last year. For the next three seasons they couldn't win the lottery again, in year four they become eligible to win the lottery again because the Slafkovsky draft is no longer in that five year window, they'd also be eligible again the following season because the Bedard draft falls out as well.
Honestly I like the rule. You can win it two years in a row, or twice over three, four or five years but you avoid a situation like the NHL had from 2010-2012 where the Oilers won every first overall pick for three consecutive years.
what confuses me most is that Shark fans exist
For instance,
What is definable about a defenseman? Like why don't the Maple Leafs for instance, why don't they start Matthews, Nylander, Marner, O'Reilly, Tavares. Well because none of them are defenseman. Ok, but why?!?!... See with basketball I know the things that make a defender a defender like Draymond Green. He can't shoot or dribble but that's why he's a defenseman. But in hockey, I cant figure out what makes a defender. Theres all sizes, speeds, puck handling, shooting, etc etc in the NHL, shoot you have players like Erik Karlson who don't even play defense and they are defenseman. So I know I'm ignorant because nobody explains this on TV or RUclips. I've been a die hard Flyers fan in Philadelphia my entire life and I'm 40. Plus been playing street roller hockey half my life and never miss a copy of NHL EA. Yet I still don't know these things can someone tell me?
Thank You
Here's how it works . Bet man decides who goes where.
Dont forget the 2007 draft when the Flyers had the worst record in the league, and their history, and lost out to Chicago for Patrick Kane. Rigged city!
And that’s just the first round…
You didn't explain why the Montreal canadiens have a chance to get the first pick although they got the first draft choice last year
MTL can still win the lotterry this year and next year. in 2022. They didn't ''win'' They remains at their original spot, which last.
It’s a freeking sham.
This one conspiracy theory is true. Major markets tend to get the 1st pick Anaheim will never pick first as the league will make sure of that. Chicago is likely going to get it and 2nd is Arizona then Anaheim as always Anaheim drops never up in the draft always been that way since 1993. Never Anaheim has hosted an allstar game nor hosted a draft. Also Bettman wasn't too happy with Anaheim winning the cup in 2007.
Oilers killed the Drafted system there fault
Just to clarify for #7, so since Montreal won the draft lottery last year, that makes them ineligible to win it this year???
I like the us system much better 4 weaker Clubs and Fans then in Europe Billionaire Soccer 😏
Actually the draft lottery especially this year is not based on lottery odds but rather economic considerations. The NHL wants the Arizona franchise to truly establish itself and ensure it’s viability. Or that Chicago with such a large potential viewership is awarded Bedard. Then again Anaheim has a significant population and that will also be considered. Under no circumstances will teams from Canada ever win because that fan base is already captured. It’s all about how much money can be generated. Any talk of lottery odds is all smoke and mirrors. Same with the reffing in the league. Whichever ref tilts the ice the “right” way will be rewarded more playoff games thereby ensuring more money in their pocket. It’s money and that is all there is to realize.
Bettman would lose it if there ever was a Jets/Flames final. No 🇺🇸 audience and 2 markets that are already fully captured. Won’t ever happen and you can bet the refs and Bettman minions will ensure that it never does.
Boy it's fucked up
But could montreal win the lottery this year. Because they won it last time .
Yes they can, they didnt win the lottery going up, they won it cause they sucked and finished last :P
Can't win MORE than twice. The habs can still get the 1st overall
The NBA draft lottery has all the authenticity of a soccer injury.
And I say that as an NFL fan, cuz there's a lot wrong with how they do it too. But this 'tank for Player X' bullshit is bullshit.
What's a four letter word 'draft bust'?
Answer: Z-I-O-N
see also, Tua and Miami
🦆🦆🦆
The system seems rigged
Some teams win twice other teams always seem like they are never going to win
Example Vancouver Canucks stink for years but picked 5th and 10th ..Devils 2 #1 .Sabers 2 #1 Rangers etc. Oilers 5 #1 hmm
Sounds rigged... if you cannot draw it live. It is riggged.
This is all well and good but we know its rigged 😂
So Pittsburgh won’t miraculously win the draft lottery
Pittsburgh can win the draft lottery, they just can’t win first overall
@@nolinsearls ah right yes. That’s what I meant lol
Probably pencilled in for next year when they start getting bad
their slot is either 13 or 14...they tied the sabres in points. if they win the lottery they move up 10. so that's either michkov or carlsson, likely.
knowing pittsburgh though, they'll trade their pick for a veteran.
@@doaftheloaf as long as they have Crosby and Malkin they’re always going to think of themselves as a contending team
Bush league
Easy its rigged for major market teams.
We all know chicagos getting bedard
Connor.bedard.blackhawks.🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
More than twice in a 5 year span *
The draft lottery is dirty scam disgusting the team that pays the most will get the first pick
its a scam.
Disgusting system
The whole system needs to be fixed
Ducks not the worst team the so sharks are
❤🩹
The orilers got those pick because the system is fixed