Explaining the NHL Draft Lottery to New Fans
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- Опубликовано: 19 окт 2024
- Due to the new franchise in the NHL this season, we have new fans to the league who may be curious regarding the system which decides draft order in the NHL's first round.
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It's pretty easy to fix it, imo. On odd years every GM in the NHL are thrown into a pit and last man standing gets the #1 pick. On even years the #1 pick goes to Edmonton, as is tradition.
Sir, you win the comments.
So new GMs every year from a bloodbath or regulated fighting?
Gretzky had a great idea. it involved non playoff teams. whichever team accumulates the most points from the date that they are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention gets to draft first. so a team that is knocked out of a playoff hunt with 20 games remaining has 20 games to accumulate points. a team that gets knocked with 10 games remaining gets 10 games to accumulate points. it still favours the weaker teams. But, it gives them a reason to win the remaining games . Games and points would still mean something for those teams . also prevents tanking.
donovanjd3 Yeah but then again there's a reason why weak teams are losing. If a team is simply too weak to even win games how will they get better by a draft pick that isn't high enough to benefit from that season?
also prevents tacticts
Svenska Soldaten
But his idea would benefit weak teams. the are knockout out of the playoff hunt earlier than a team in a wildcard hunt. it gives them more games to accumulate the "draft position " points. it would give real meaning to every game. plus it adds some excitement to the fans of non playoff teams. Gretzky has offered a few good ideas to the league. his offside idea is good. his double goal line idea is brilliant. they league should listen to the man. hint hint..these Gretzky ideas could make an interesting video
I would be flattered if Gretzky recommended this. It was actually me, as presented at MIT Sloan and published in 2010. If Wayne Gretzky has gone public recommending my method, I would be very excited to see that.
www.researchgate.net/publication/46554877_NHL_Draft_Order_Based_on_Mathematical_Elimination
donovanjd3 WinningUnlimited So the thing I'm wondering is if a team has a low chance at wildcard what's stopping them from tanking ASAP in the season and then accumulating points? Also, isn't it grossly unfair for teams that miss the playoffs late? eg some teams will have 10 games to accumulate points while others will only have 5, thus needing to double the points.
You're a teacher in this life too my friend.
I am fully prepared for Edmonton to win the lottery... again.
After his entry level deal expires, you are absolutely right.
Dave Zarvan EXACTLY - Edmonton's lottery ball " must have a magnet inside" - Doesn't matter they will trade it to NJ So Taylor Hall can have a shot gun partner. How did not Oilers management could not see the possibilities of Hall and McDavid - The way Edmonton has fumbled and bumbled their 9000 number 1 picks since forever, they should decline if they win it LOL. I'm a Flyers fan and I don't even care.
It is ridiculous how many number 1 picks they have gotten. It is even more ridiculous how they have accomplished absolutely nothing with said picks. I am thoroughly enjoying watching them struggle this season, I never understand why they had the second best Cup odds at the start of the season. I will enjoy it until they luck out in the lottery again.
Also, I was so happy when the Flyers moved up to number 2 last year. The Flyers have had very little luck throughout their history (losing 6 straight Finals appearances, making so many appearances in the final four of the playoffs, being by far the worst team in shootouts, and other reasons) despite how good they have been for so long. I am a Red Wings fan (sorry about 1997), but if I had to pick a second team, I no doubt would choose the Flyers (I have 14 Red Wings jerseys, but I also have 3 Flyers jerseys). Detroit and Philadelphia had by far the two best owners of the post-Original Six era in Mike Ilitch and Ed Snider respectively, I was heartbroken when both of them passed away in the last 2 years. There were so many similarities in how the organizations were run with the two great owners, they cared for the teams and players like no other owners ever have and ever will. They cared more about winning than turning a profit, again a rarity among sports owners. The league is so much worse off without those two great men still around.
Dave Zarvan YEP - Getting Patrick Nolan kinda made up " a little bit" of the Flyers losing out to Chicago in the "07" draft with Patrick Kane as the prize, even though the Flyers had way more ping pong balls and odds of winning that draft and somehow lost to Chicago - Obviously Kane and Toews did their thing BUT I can also imagine a Giroux Kane era " that could've been sweet also" Plus you can see since January that Nolan Patrick is going to be an excellent NHL player, his game is getting better as the year has progressed and you see his future potential.
brendan butler im sure they cud free up cap space in 3 years
All in for Dahlin
CanucksHub At least pick something that actually rhymes
It does rhyme...
It doesn’t rhyme it’s pronounced differently
All eeen for Dahlin... and they said it couldn’t be done
It's pronounced Dahleen so you FAILED
love how you explained it Shannon! nice work
Can you do more of these videos explaining some of the aspects of the NHL that aren't obvious to the new fans of hockey. That would be awesome.
Thanks for this! This is my first season watching hockey, and need as much explanation as i can get!
Thanks Shannon. It explained some but what a complicated system! Strange the lottery is not shown live, could be an exiting event to watch.
Another great video from THG. I already understood how it works but its still nice to see/hear another explanation. Keep it up Shannon.
There is video footage of the process released. RUclips it.
THANK YOU!!!!! As a new fan this is so confusing to me thank you shannon!!!
Thanks Shannon, once again you read my mind, I had no clue how this worked.
Shannon. Don't you think that the Penguins were given picks back when Crosby came around. Find it weird that Mario was going to sue because he never got paid and was given the team. Then suddenly he didn't, and had many good years of picks I.e. Crosby, Malkin, Fleury.
Mike Hagerman what do u mean and malkin wasnt a first overall pick
I am aware. If not for the lockout. Ovi would have been 1st the year before. Malkin was still a second overall pick.
I also didn't say first picks. "Good picks"
Cmon, i wasn't that bad
*Explaining the NHL Draft Lottery to Vegas Fans*
So...the Rangers still have a chance?
I just thank God being a Leaf fan that we got Auston Matthews,without Matthews Toronto would still be in the draft lottery. Bob.
Yeah lucky you. My team just gets screwed no matter the season. Eichel should have been a coyote. Mcdavid should be a sabre. But no edm get every pick ever. Great system. Pfft
1000 balls. Amount of Balls according to standings. Live feed.
Would be intresting with a draft playoff type thing. The bottom 4 teams play against eachother 31st against 28th and 30 against 29 then the winners from their respective games duke it out for the first overall pick. Would be more hockey to watch and you would think that the players want to win to improve their chances at winning the cup in the future. This could take place between the draft and the finals.
Nice vid...can you explain the format for the playoffs and why they changed it from the old format
Do you recommend any sites for a rookie hockey fan to understand the draft and the salary cap? Budding Montreal Canadiens fan trying to follow the growth of the team in the off season
There is only one solution.....Thunderdome!
lol
You should have worn an Oilers jersey for this video.
Good system. No guarantees. The worst Arizona can do is 4th OVR, that's about right.
This system is garbage. I hate it with a burning passion.
Pancakes and Hammers So how would you fix it?
Henri Kirsi Determine by total points recorded after a team is eliminated from making the playoffs. It is an obvious change that needs to happen for the NHL and the people who love the sport.
Mr. Man You are right Mr. Man, but there are better ways then the current draft lottery.
Thank you, Shannon. My team is NY Rangers. I never had to worry about the lottery. I appreciate you explaining this.
Finally i can understand the draft, thanks hockey guy :)
What kind of camera are you using? The auto-focus searching has always bugged me.
You’re thinking of the year after the Magic drafted Shaq.
They just missed the playoffs, and had just one lottery ball, yet they won the lottery. Ended up trading the pick (Chris Webber) for 3 first round picks and the #3 pick (Penny Hardaway)
You should continue putting numbers on the board because I like numbers. Also, a couple of years ago the Jets were predicted to draft 7th and we ended up drafting 2nd and getting Patrik Laine so anything is possible.
I think the top 5 worst teams compete for the number 1pick. And teams 6 to 10 draft for the cant go higher then 6 and not lower then 10. Teams after ten go by records. I think that is the best way. There is no way that n.j. and flyers pick number 1 and 2. Like they did last year and I'm a flyers fan. I think its bad overall for the league
Keith robert I agree but the worse team still get the best changes.
Great info thank you.
Another idea that I don't actually like but I find morbidly hilarious is doing a lottery for all of the bottom 15/16 picks. Only reason I bring this up is the horror comedy that would have been Colorado having a very slim chance of picking 15th last year. And based on how their luck was going, that slim chance might've been possible
great video, totaly agree that the current system needs an overhaul
It wasn’t the Shaq draft where Orlando had the 1/100 draft odds, it was the ‘93 draft with Webber and Hardaway where they had those odds. Orlando had the worst odds and won the first pick.
I think we need a system that encourages winning. Once a team is eliminated from playoff contention, how many wins they get after that determines there draft position. Arizona and buffalo get eliminated on the same day, and for the rest of the season Arizona gets 9 wins vs buffalos 8. Arizona gets first pick and buffalo gets second. Gives the teams near the bottom of the league a better shot of picking first than a team that gets eliminated on the last day of the season.
I think it should be based on record (worse record = better chances.) Still based on position but the % of the team getting #1 increases as their record gets worse. Like if a team finishes 0-82 they're given the first pick but if 2 teams are 22-55-5. They are given the same odds. Thoughts?
I like your explanation videos keep up the good work
Bottom 5 go to a lottery for 1st. Then the bottom ten go for 2nd (so 9 teams taking away who won 1st). Then bottom 15 for 3rd, then it just goes by order the same as it does now.
The draft lottery should only include bottom 10 teams
ImTheBatman it does...
it includes every team that misses the playoffs thats 15
Can you break down the math? Why do certain teams have the percentage they do?
You can watch the process from the draft lottery from 2017 its on yt😊
There's a video on RUclips showing the ball picking
I really like the current system. Every team that missed the playoffs has a chance at drafting 1st overall, and it makes really good tv
They do post a RUclips video of the behind the scenes lottery ball selection as soon as everyone finds out who won
Definitely think the lottery should only include the bottom 10, after that teams are at least competitive enough to have a good chance of making the playoffs. Considering the point of the lottery is to prevent tanking for a generational or franchise changing talent, it should also only be for the top 2 picks.
Question... so let’s say the rangers win the 1st overall draft pick... does that mean Carolina and Columbus get number 2 and number 3 or are there other lotteries for the 2nd and 3rd draft?
If Canucks don't win the lottery I'm hoping for top 3 so we can get either Zadina, Svechnikov or Boqvist
How does the NHL determine that Buffalo gets an 18.5% odds, or 185 number combinations out of 1000?
Pretty excited to see heiskanen play next fall
I would like if the odds were based on the number of points not seed, the argument being a team that finishes with 46 pts without even tanking deserve more than 17% chance at first overall. Problem would obviously be tanking. I guess the best solution would be to higher the odds a little for bottom 5 teams and maybe if someone outside the bottom 5 win one of the first two lottery give that team's 4 number combinations to the teams remaining so if Chicago were to win the 1st overall pick all the combinations assign to the Blackhawks would be re-assign to the teams bellow Chicago based on their odds before the lottery, so it highers the odds for the 2nd overall pick to the worst teams without automatically giving them the pick.
I agree with what you said there. Also it was Penny Hardway with the long shot Shaq had better odds for Orlando. But to be honest last years Avs couldn't even hit 50 points and get bumped to 4th. I see the flaws
When's the draft lottery?
Like you said cut the amount if teams back to 10, for not only the number one pick but the second and third as well... Spread the odds out a lil more for the bottom 5.... So basically just a little tweak
I would take the bottom 5 teams in the standings and draw one (even chances) for #1. Then add the 6th team from the bottom (even chances again) and draw one for #2. No guarantee for how low a team can pick.
It’s the game where Edmonton picks first and everyone else competes for the number 2 overall
i would do top 5 worst team for a lottery for the 5 first draft. team 6-10 for the lottery from position 6 to 10
I've seen that same chart else where.. I have issues with how its explained and written in general.. That 51.9% for Cyotes position to draft 4th is misleading. If the 1st place loses 1,2,3 position.. its 100% to draft 4th. (conditional statistics.. given they lose 1,2,3). Because the table almost make it seem like you there's a chance you can win the 4th pick which you can't .. Just keep that in mind when explaining to people...
I would like to see the drawings live as well, just to prove that there are absolutely no ways that the league can tamper with the results.
I agree that there should just be a lottery for only the top 2 picks, but every team that did not make the playoffs is in the running still. The worst team should not pick too far off of the top spot, and I think the 3 spot is as far off as it should be.
As far as who is eligible to move up, I think a few rules should eliminate some teams:
1. If you qualified for the postseason the previous season, you are out.
2. If you picked in the top 3 last season, you are out.
3. If you picked 1st overall in any of the previous 3 drafts, you are out.
4. If you picked 2nd overall in any of the previous 2 drafts, you are out.
5. If this drops the number of teams still eligible for a top 3 pick to 2 or less, those two still are in the drawing for the top 2 picks, and the rest of the draft order is the reverse order of the standings. Likewise, if this results in only one team remaining, that team gets the top pick, and the rest of the draft is reverse standings order.
This finally rewards teams that have not been doing so hot the past few seasons, and have not had luck on their side come draft time, to have the best odds to move up.
A couple of add-ons: if the process eliminates every team from the running for a top 3 pick, then the draft order is reverse standings. And once all teams are eliminated based on the proposed rules, the remaining teams all have equal odds to draft 1st, the remaining teams equal odds for 2nd, and remainder still equal chance at 3rd. The rest of the first round is reverse order, obviously.
Maybe instead of every team out of the playoffs has a chance, change it to only the worst 10 or so teams. The 5(or 6) that are left out probably don't want to tank since they still have a shot at the playoffs.
Those teams would currently be:
Colorado
St. Louis
Calgary
Florida
Carolina
St. Louis is questionable as of late, but for the most part none of those teams should be thinking about tanking
This idea would prevent a team like tampa from last year getting a number one pick just because they had one off year.
If the Sens get Dahlin does that pretty much solidify that Karlsson will be traded?
What do you mean when you said LA would have a top 3 pick if St Louis was picked first?
Ian Marcusiu when they do the reveal they show the order from 15th to 1st. So if St. Louis was the first card turned over it means LA moved up into the top 3
Greg Muschett ohh makes sense thanks a lot!
Here is my idea on the Lottery.
Take all 31 GM's ( most of them played hockey anyway) have a game of horse / hockey style. The GM standing/winning that team gets the first draft pick. First GM that missing the net picks 31st and so on.😂😂
nhl posts a video of the actual lottery every year. granted you cant see everything that goes on, but you can sort of see the process
Gretzky's idea sounds good to me.
Tbh rigging the lottery is the best choice for the nhl think would u rather have mcdavid in buffalo n eichel in Arizona or have mcdavid be the guy to save Edmonton
There is posts of them drawing the lottery balls on youtube
How about an averaged ranking. By this I mean sample every 10 games throughout the season.
For instance: If your team has the fewest points in the first ten games played (for each team) then you rank 31st.
From games 11-20, maybe you had a good run and ranked 7th (only counting games 11-20)
Keep doing this for the remainder of the season and average everyone’s 10-game ranks at the end. The team that ranked the worst on average gets the 1st pick.
This prevents teams from tanking because you’d almost have to plan on tanking from the beginning. Sure a couple of teams could do the math on games 71-82, but at that point it’s unlikely that tanking 31st could even swing your average by much.
This is just a rough version. Maybe you could change the 10-game system to a 5-game or 20-game to make it work more evenly.
As a bonus this would create a new set of stats and standings, kind of a built in power ranking system in the NHL. Fans speculating in the playoffs could say “yeah, they lead the division but their opponent has a higher 10-game average rank.”
I would increase the odds of the lower teams. For instance, Arizona should at least have a 33% chance to draft first.
Have a mini tournament for the first overall pick
I’m glad a team can’t tank and guarantee a first overall. Although the system is weird. But if it was like that Pierre Dorian would trade Anderson and play goalie himself. It sucks to see the great prospects go to teams where they are screwed the second they get there.
Not interested myself but yeah definitely a needed video.
I think bottom 5 should get a chance at 1st then open it up to bottom 10 for 2nd and all get a chance at 3rd then go by standings would be better
Take the 10 worse records(all division bottom dwellers included in the eight) in a weighted lottery.The bottom 4 teams can not draft more than 3 places lower in draft (ie Worst team=No lower than 4th pick,second worse=no lower than 5th ,etc).Teams in 10th-8th should have less than 4%,3%,2%,1% chance of getting the top pick.
The next 8/10 records would go into a weighted lottery that also accounts for previous two season records (in expansion seasons this wouldnt apply).This would help teams wth two season of losing and prevent a good team being rewarded for a crap season.
I think it was Penny Hardaway who got drafted number 1 by Orlando after the Magic had Shaq and just missed the playoffs and won the lottery somehow.
They have shown the behind the scenes video of the balls drawn.
Not live.
Here's what I would do (this is stupid I know) I would take the worst 12 teams and stick them by record in seeds and put them in a tournament bracket and have them play a 3 game tournament series and whoever wins those teams get the higher picks 1,2,3 and the ones who lose get the lower picks whatever they decide to do with the picks they played for they can trade
Now if they've dealt their first and second round picks and so on I would take the teams that took the picks the other teams dealt to them and put the teams that the picks got dealt to in that bracket
Bottom 5 have a shot at the top 5 picks exponentially.
If the Rangers get top 3, they would be back in contention by 2019-2020. If they get Dahlin they would be right back in action. And they have a bigger chance then I actually thought. 5% is a pretty big chance for where there are.
It's a good system. Discentivizes tanking, just like the new NBA lottery system.
The lottery should be all the teams who arent top 3 drawing for a spot in the top 3, so one team always gets lucky, and the 1st, 2nd, 3rd worst teams are between 1-4 in the draft
They also could make it where your salary cap has something to do with it. So a detroit or chicago (teams actively trying to win before the season started) would have better odds than an arizona or buffalo. And they could also make it so teams who are continually in the lottery have progressively lower chances to win.. just a thought. That could deter tanking while also rewarding the worst team with the best player
It’s very easy just like football. The teams who don’t do too well and get below the relegation line get relegated to WHL. I am a new NHL fan and I am surprised that sports in North America is this odd :/
They should do a rock,paper,scissors tournament for non-playoff teams. Winner gets 1st Overall pick.
Don’t care what the system is as much as I care about it being a live reaction for everyone, including the NHL.
Please allow me to sum up the draft lottery in a few simple words.
1st overall pick goes to the Edmonton Oilers.
And then the rest of the deserving teams pick other players.
Wasn’t too long ago you were in favour of scrapping the lottery. Firstly, the process should be shown to the fans live. Secondly, the odds for the lowest teams needs to be massively increased. The current odds are massively in favour to teams who just miss the playoffs. If you finish bottom 3, you’re all but guaranteed to get screwed.
Shannon, you've got the numbers wrong, Edmonton actually has a 90% chance of drafting first overall.
Draft is easy to figure out ... no matter how bad Vancouver is, they always pick 5th. Thats the rule
I think five teams getting a 20 percent chance for the 1st pick is reasonable. So teams don't lose on purpose.
I would make all the gms in a circle and put mcdavid or Matthews or dahlin whatever in the middle. Than all the gms have to run in than make it out of the circle carrying the guy. Anything goes.
If Edmonton wins the lottery I’ll have a stroke.
I’d make it were the worse 4 teams Battle it out. But still the worse team gets the best changes and al the way down. I don’t think it’s right for a number 10 team to be able to jump up to number 3 it’s bullshit. There are teams that really need help. Top 4 only get the change to get number one and can’t go passed getting the 4th pick. So if the wings are at least place they have the best change to win but can lose that spot to 4th overall pick. I just don’t think any teams outside of at the very least 6 pick should be able to take there place.
I like the mlb system my self
I liked the old way. Worst team gets 1st pick and I don't care about tanking and selling assets at trade deadline.
I understand why they did it, but man there’s something wrong with it
I like this system.
I like the draft lottery. There is no point of playing the games if you try to lose on purpose.
I hate drafts like this. It's kind of like the NBA. Just cause you're the worst team doesn't mean you're getting the #1 pick.
This system is really flawed .... Just the fact alone that the lottery takes place behind closed doors is already questionable 😂