Why Putin Annexes Territory He Can't Keep
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- Опубликовано: 22 май 2024
- I answer 18 key questions about Putin's illegal annexation of 4 Ukrainian territories, including the implications for nuclear risk.
Konstantin Kisin thread on Twitter -
VladVexler/status...
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CHAPTERS
00:00 intro - Putin's illegal annexation ceremony
00:58 Putin's insane annexation speech (1)
07:00 nuclear risk to the world? (2)
08:50 How has propaganda changed since mobilisation and annexation? (3)
10:08 Putin's bottom line? (4)
10:31 What is victory for Putin? (5)
10:56 Is Putin bluffing? (6)
12:33 How would Russians feel about a nuclear attack on Ukraine? (7)
14:10 Blow back after mobilisation? (8)
14:53 What if Putin dies? (9)
16:09 Who is that guy? (10)
16:30 Does Russia a whole know what it is fighting for? (11)
18:26 Can Ukraine lose? (12)
18:52 Luckiest scenario for Putin? (13)
19:28 Why did Putin delay that speech about mobilisation overnight? (14)
20:19 How will Putin's regime collapse? (15)
21:34 Could 100,000 Russians march on the Kremlin? (16)
24:28 How are russians reacting to annexation? (17)
25:20 Does mobilisation and annexation satisfy Z-patriots like Dugin and Girkin? (18)
WATCH NEXT & CHAPTERS
WATCH NEXT
Putin's Partial Mobilisation (it's disastrous)
ruclips.net/video/HravTYSIVu4/видео.html
Konstantin Kisin thread on Twitter -
twitter.com/VladVexler/status/1576305047696121856?s=20&t=DZelGY7hjsB2zl8ZCfYUrg
CHAPTERS
00:00 intro - Putin's illegal annexation ceremony
00:58 Putin's insane annexation speech (1)
07:00 nuclear risk to the world? (2)
08:50 How has propaganda changed since mobilisation and annexation? (3)
10:08 Putin's bottom line? (4)
10:31 What is victory for Putin? (5)
10:56 Is Putin bluffing? (6)
12:33 How would Russians feel about a nuclear attack on Ukraine? (7)
14:10 Blow back after mobilisation? (8)
14:53 What if Putin dies? (9)
16:09 Who is that guy? (10)
16:30 Does Russia a whole know what it is fighting for? (11)
18:26 Can Ukraine lose?n (12)
18:52 Luckiest scenario for Putin? (13)
19:28 Why did Putin delay that speech about mobilisation overnight? (14)
20:19 How will Putin's regime collapse? (15)
21:34 Could 100,000 Russians march on the Kremlin? (16)
24:28 How are russians reacting to annexation? (17)
25:20 Does mobilisation and annexation satisfy Z-patriots like Dugin and Girkin? (18)
You can now support Vlad's work on Patreon!
www.patreon.com/vladvexler
Support Vlad via PayPal
www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB
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Dear Vlad, been enjoying your content for a while. I'd like to ask you something. My field is political sciences, with a focus on international relations and I usually view the world through game theory or a mixture of realism and dialectics - on a case to case basis, for I view them as tools and you only need a hammer when there is a nail. I'm just mentioning this so you know where I'm coming from. I've engaged with political philosophy but not on any noteworthy scale. So to my questions :
Do you think Putin actually believes his mambo jambo? He uses it sure, for propaganda and gains and I might even be inclined that it does not matter what his private chamber thoughts are as long as we see what he says and acts upon. Still I'm curious about your opinion.
Second question. Do you think Putin is aware, that his he is Russia framing is reaching other powers, who have through his actions already decided he needs to go and are actively contemplating wether this needs to be the case for all of Russia? I see him creating the very Russiaphihia he's railing against and Russians very well may reep what he's seeding, witch would be a horrific catastrophe. I worry about that.
Vlad, one stylistic note on the thumbnail: Putin's shirt along with the "Annexation" lettering almost makes it look like there's a red line at the bottom, as if the video has already been viewed.
I have a bit of a weird question- you always seem to wear the same shirt!
Do you have lots of that shirt? Or is it a special one you always wear when you shoot a video?
Sorry for the shallow question unrelated to your content but it was something I needed to ask!
@@K1lostream It reminds of a kosovorotka, a russian peasant shirt or Tolstoy shirt (tolstovka). Perfect choise for him. Like green shirt for Zelenskyi when he is on war mode.
is the determination of the fate of the peoples who were not convinced, we divide it on me the Russians who suffered persecution So Putin was very frank and signed
Vladimir Putin consulted with a fortune teller. He asked:
“How long will I live?”
The psychic replied: “I cannot tell that but I do know you will die on a Ukrainian holiday.”
“Which holiday?” Putin asked.
“Whichever day you die will be an Ukrainian holiday.”
Tsk, tsk ! 🧐😂🤣 🙏✌️🇺🇦👍🦾
The psychic was wrong.
When Putin croaks we won’t know for days to weeks and the war won’t stop overnight.
😂🤣
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Love it
😂😂😂😅😊😅❤❤😂😢😅😊❤😂❤😂
SLAVA UKRAINE HEROES 🇺🇦 ♥
You are not wrong about Russians being totally apathetic to the annexation. I just watched 1420's video where he asks this question to people on the street in Moscow and mostly the responses were (with the usual blank look on their faces) "Yeah, well if that's what they want...." Only one older man, with despair in his eyes, said that it was complete nonsense to hold referendums in territories that you don't even control.
Maybe people in Russia watched one of the thousands of videos showing UA killing civilians???? It’s like you people ignore genocide because it’s Russia speakers being exterminated.
Watched that video as well. They are either for it or can't be bothered. Almost annoyed to be inconvenienced. Except the old guy. Actually they act like guests in their own country.
Ukraine will be liberated of nazi people.
@@MA-fg5hz I agree. The apathy with what's going on is appalling
In a dysfunctional family/society if someone else is getting beaten, that means you are safe. You shrug, look away and are glad its someone else’ problem.
As a Polish person, I feel particularly sensitive about the frase "let's blitz through them" 🙈😅
From russian to a pole, you guys are doing fine, better than we are and i wish you all the best even as the situation here in Russia deteriorates. Here's hoping Ukraine wins this war, and then you help them to win the peace that comes after.
Asxa russian do you worry that whoever replaces Putin, if he is replaced, might be worse?
Historically speaking...
The odds are pretty sketchy .
I would appreciate your hones opinion. The power structure in place doesn't need Putin to stay in power. The strong man is the way , repeatedly...
Do you think the collectivism in russian culture will ever respect individuals?
Today: Ukraine.
Tomorrow: Poland.
The day after tomorrow: The rest of Europe.
In other words, it's up to us to avoid this from happening. (again)
Lyman and many surrounding areas (Donetsk): "This is now official Russian land forever" ... well, for 24 hours anyway.
Even worse: He was talking about the people it seems (I just know the translation). So disgusting.
@@HaukeLagingI was shocked by this, too, then I heard another translation where it was called "land". I would love to know the real translation
"Can Ukraine lose war?" i want to fill this one in a little bit more. As you said, Ukrainians can't be under Kremlin control anymore. People who don't want to be controlled, Can not be controlled. That's why taking territory is WAY easier then holding it.
Baltics is a fine example (i am Lithuanian) . Because they didn't want to be part of Russian Empire, they fought hard, resulting in one of the longest and bloodiest Guerrilla warfare in history, followed by immense protests and never ending headache for Russia. All the way from WW2 to 1991 where they finally had to give up on our land.
I like your videos. Your tone is so relaxing and easy to listen to. Peace from Lithuania
This is the most important takeaway. Even if Russian military wasn't having big problems, they would lose. They could take all of Ukraine and all they'd get is a new guerrilla war. US military completely dominated in Vietnam, Iraq, etc and it didn't matter because people don't like foreign militaries occupying them
@Yemeni Kildakiids the majority had to flee, so they could not vote. Results are fake af anyway.
Not to nitpick your excellent English, but it's "peace", my friend ;) A piece is what Russia just declared itself to have taken away from Ukraine.
Yes, English is horrid with all its homonyms and weird, inconsistent orthography. It's why our young students have quite low literacy rates compared with nearly every other language.
@Yemeni Kildakiids You think the announced results of the referendums are accurate? 🤣😂😂🤣
@Yemeni KildakiidsIn the middle of a armed conflict and we’re given like a week to think about it (for comparison the Scottish independence referendum gave the Scottish over a year to think about this important decision). And this was conducted by a foreign army occupying these region armed with tanks and guns, how is anyone suppose to vote for what they truly want when they’re going to be influenced by a large army occupying the regions?
The annexation isn't mainly about the territory. It's about Putin saying "see, there's no way I can back down now". And his logic is that since he has proven that he can't back down, we must instead. This is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.
This is by far one of the most important and informative channels on RUclips, and about Russia in general
Thanks so so much!
Profoundly grim reality. I am hugely grateful for your clarity and willingness to engage with this reality. Thank you, Vlad.
Thank you Tim, and sorry about all of this.
Most politicians, part. in Germany are completely flabbergusted and blind- as well as dumbfolded! It s a mess....overall!
@@VladVexler My dear Vlad, I am so deeply sorry for you having to do this job, but eternally grateful too.
We all know appeasement was a roaring success and nobody ever heard of Hitler after the Munich Agreement right? Putin couldn't possibly have his sights set on Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, or Finland right? Remember he has nukes so we have to give him everything he wants right?
"The Sudetenland is the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe" - Adolph Hitler
"A Quarrel In A Faraway Country, Between People Of Whom We Know Nothing” - Neville Chamberlain
"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last" - Winston Churchill
"You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war."- Winston Churchill
"You may gain temporary appeasement by a policy of concession to violence, but you do not gain lasting peace that way."- Anthony Eden
@@thilomanten8701 I don't know if this is just my observation but it seems the average German politician, even the AfD, are extremely naieve.
Putin's speech was nearly indistinguishable from a present-day Alex Jones rant. Just replace "the West" with "globalists".
Its funny that some right wing and even some far left wing people in the west admire Putin and Russia when his speech was basic like bingo for all the things they hate. It was like a half SJW half right wing schizo rant all in one. The west are racist, colonising Nazis and also gay atheistic transgenders...
Other than that Alex Jones got a point and is non violent
Yep. Globalists, George Soros, cultural Marxism… any of the classic fascist bogeymen would fit right into that speech. He even managed to include the obligatory dig at the trans community. It’s like Jones/Trump/Orban Bingo. 🙄
@@hawkevick9184 what points do Alex jones have?
That’s the thing about conspiratorial mindset, it’s all the same. Just replace the subject and some of the verbs. The pattern is the same.
Omg, you made me laugh out loud while reciting the annexation speech 😂. I wasn’t expecting it. I came here for serious news and ended up remembering my siblings impersonating famous people from history when we were kids. I also got my serious news 😊
same here :D But then again every wannabe strongman has an internal monologue like that I believe.
Gotta love the us did it too 😭 which somehow makes it okay?
I loved this but not because it was funny. It was a great way to let people know about the rant without letting Putin's messages have any chance to be taken seriously. The BBC despicably showed the whole thing without comment!
Vlad's channel is vastly underrated. I'd like more people to know and listen to what's being said here. Thanks for your content!
Grateful!
BOT
Any person using their brain can see the unconscious bias he has towards Ukraine.
Putin's speech was truly unhinged. Plus, as a trans person i just love being mentioned in his infowars-esque rant, makes me feel so included! Thank's for the video Vlad.
"Luckiest scenario for Putin?"
He dies peacefully of old age in one of his fancy houses and a selected successor to lead national morning.
However I increasingly feel he's heading towards an ending like Mussolini or Ceaușescu.
Happy to hear an alternative take on this :-)
I'm wishing his ending is more like Fleece Johnson's unfortunate cellmate
No Putin will be in hell if Putin dies.
@@AIDAHAR210 Oh no! He picked the hard way!
He’s more likely to end like Al Capone.
After watching my mom develop paranoid dementia at the same age ... I'm seeing the same speech patterns, the same seemingly sudden irrationality, the same crazy sense of being attacked when nothings happening to her, the same skewed ranting because she's lost touch with reality. Anyway, just my 2 cents.
Some of my friends here in Canada are alarmed by the current political developments in Ukraine and Russia, so I have referred them to your RUclips channel. I find that your insights are invaluable to make sense of our strange times.
They're gonna be even more alarmed now aren't they...
I am grateful. Sorry this is a very screwed up situation.
@@SianaGearz It does help you make sense of it and gain a perspective though. Without proper insights it can be very confusing.
In western Europe as far as I can see it has mostly caused a lot of disillusionment with the optimism of the end of the cold war. With more and more starting to doubt capitalism and also modernity itself. Some have already chosen extremist views but most seem to be in a state of doubt but also hopelessness. That they know capitalism is flawed but it's impossible to go without it. They also fear reforming it will lead to a mass exodus of companies.
These things were already greatly strengthened by Covid which really highlighted the growing isolation and loss of identity many people felt. The secularism of Europe is also becoming a very serious problem with not really any viable alternative coming for the church.
By many in western Europe the "end of history" was seen as fact and many are starting to wake up to the idea that this is not the case. However many are utterly clueless as to what this means or what they are supposed to do with that realization. There just is a certain immature cluelessness in the west with everyone looking at each other as to what to do, like they are expecting their mom to solve the problem for them.
Just found your channel. I'm a political science major who loves Russian history, but can't speak Russian, so I've really appreciated your vides to help fill the gaps.
you might like Maxim Katz too :-)
Welcome aboard mate, Vlad has some awesome uploads so get stuck in.
This guy is awesome. Also, seriously do one of the language learning apps, I'm using two different apps to learn Ukrainian. Just a few mins a day, works for me.
@@40watt_club the only problem, that katz promotes ukrainian and ruzzian brotherhood. This brotherhood that lead to genocide of ukrainians and prosecution of Ukrainian culture and language. Russians should finally learn to respect Ukrainians but not treat them like their "brothers"...
@@1jediwitch Which ones? Been struggling, I speak pretty good russian but constantly get hung up on the differences, would like to have a better method then watching Ukrainian videos like Sternenko
Basically the existence of a free and prosperous Ukraine is an existential threat because it would show that Slavs can be free and rule themselves without a strong man in charge taking care of them. Putin cannot allow his people to hope for such a future RLM must destroy any example of Slavic or Post-Soviet freedom.
What? Free? Ukraine is directly a political pawn for USA to move the military might of NATO closer to Russian borders. The coup of 2014 is a rejection of democracy as much of Eastern Ukraine was ignored when they had no say in who would govern Ukraine after Victor Janukovytj. The civil war is a direct result of American meddling in Ukrainian politics to both tie Ukraine closer to EU, making them an ally to USA, and isolating Russia further. Europe stood idly by as Ukraine began bombing civilian centres in rebel-held areas, ignoring the reports from international human rights organisations of the ongoing abuse perpetrated by Ukrainian forces and rebels. When Ukraine win this war it will become a pawn governed by outside forces and a corrupt president.
I mean Poland and Czech republic are quite prosperous compared to Russia and they are free and democratic - so there are already such examples.
slavs spirit has been disgraced by putin and people like him
@@olegnovitski6987 In the Imperial Design they are outliners, not imaginative 'proper RUssia'. Could be colonised, suppressed, taken, whatever, but essentially: does not "belong". To become 'properly Russian' they would need to be 'cleansed' and reappropriated, read: exterminated, reeducated (which in history happened and failed) etc. But at the same time the 'borderland' had to be pushed more into West.
Ukraine’s was in decline ever since it became “free” and “independent”.
They WERE one of the most prosperous republics. But their prosperity came from their economic and cultural ties with Russia.
A lot of the former republics had their population thinking it was them who “feeds the Russians”. That’s why they initially wanted to become independent. They through that one they stop “feeding Moscow” life will become even better. Things couldn’t be farther from the truth however.
Russians see Ukraine as an existential threat because of the NATOs presence and the hateful ideology that was spreading in Ukraine for the past 30 (or even more) years.
Things that happened in Odessa in May 2 2014 has shown us that the threat is not ideological but physical.
These people want us all de ad.
My brain has been starved for this kind of deep intellectual, and philosophical insight. Thank you.
Commenting to boost video engagement, since the RUclips algorithm demands blood sacrifices from its flock. Wonderful video as ever, Vlad, all the more so for having been recorded, edited and uploaded while the events are still current!
Thank you!
These insights are so much more valuable to understanding the situation than anything the Media presents. Absolutely fascinating stuff Vlad, thank you so much.
Thank you. I’m always uncomfortable with that thought, as there is really great work major journalistic institutions. But it is typically not big picture.
@@VladVexler there are of course good journalists. The problem I have with many of their analysts is that they often just state thair opinion without really explaining it (often becouse they don't have enough time) and I am not interested in their opinion but in the reasoning behind it
He’s one of the best pro-Western commentators. If we had a genuine and liberal media in the West I doubt this war would even have happened. Westerners are probably the most brainwashed people on the planet at this point because we think we’re free. Yet we have the most sophisticated propaganda system in all of history. It’s just more like Brave New World than 1984.
Vlad, you are just simply magnificent! Cheers from Kyiv!
There is a psychological rule of thumb that the only motivations we can see in others are the ones we have ourselves. For instance, if Russia were to have troops in Japan it would be a brutal occupation; therefor Putin believes that American troops in Japan must be a brutal occupation. When Putin looks out at the world, he sees a mirror and this terrifies him.
Your content is so damn good.
I’d like to request a definition of “wobble.” What would a wobble in Putin’s world look like! Thank you for your informative videos.
Open conflict between the 10 most powerful people in the country; a catastrophic collapse in Putin’s polling (although polling now is unavailable due to fear); could even be relentless defeats in Ukraine and a failure to draw NATO into direct confrontation.
@@VladVexler Large numbers of deaths among conscripts could also be destabilizing. People pay more attention to a war when their friends and family are fighting. Even more so when friends and family members have been killed.
The abbreviated or absent training, unfit recruits, a shortage of even shoddy, poorly maintained military equipment, combined with a failing command structure all but guarantee that conscripts will die in droves.
@@VladVexler What would happen if Russia were to be outright defeated in Ukraine? Would Putin survive in the eyes of the public considering how many sons have been lost? Or in the eyes of the other powerful players?
@@VladVexler Why in the world would Putin want war with NATO? How could he possibly benefit from that? NATO would squash the Russian forces in Ukraine inside of a week and I truly think that the only way out of this is in the hands of every border state not under Russia control to assist in Ukraine.
@@VladVexler That last possibility is interesting, since NATO is doing everything possible to help Ukraine but without getting directly drawn in themselves. It may even impossible to draw NATO in directly, since Finland and Sweden may not be enthused about the mutual defense Article 5 being triggered literally the instant they join.
Putin´s speech was so insane that i would most likely have laughed out loud, had i been present in that setting.
Oh that's an easy problem, just imagine a glowing red dot on the back of your skull. Suddenly it's not so funny any longer! Haha.
It‘s not funny at all imo. It reads like the prime example of a fascist speech including vague outside enemies that attack Russia and the suppression of the Russian people
Vlad, thank you for this material ! It is great to see you in such superb mood and shape.
I really enjoyed the way you've read that article. I know that subject is serious, but humor is stronger then any political ideology :)
In my country, even during hardest censorship, sense of humor was like a shield, that nobody could take from us, and people using satire against censors were like heroes.
Thank you again and I wish you a lot of good health.
Regards from Poland !
SURE IF YOU WANT TO LISTEN TO BULLSHIT
HE HASN'T EXPLAINED HOW THE REFERENDUM WAS "ILLEGAL"
Your description of what could happen to you even as a result of passive protest was absolutely chilling.
Hahahaha!! Quoting Putin's speech word for word was done with such fun, zest and zealous conviction... Worth an Oscar if you ask me!! Brilliant!!!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
I absolutely love your animated impersonations, but the ability to recognize what you are saying in real time is priceless.
I really like this question and answer format. It's organized and you give very concise and well structure answers.
What worries me more than the greediness and powermongering of the Kremlin, is how bumbling and incompetent they are when going about it.
When your only response to losing a war in embarrassing fashion is to pretend that you’ve won, you expose yourself as the laughing stock that you are.
an embarrisment
Please do audiobooks! You would be fabulous!
Ha ha
No. We need to see Vlad's eyes bug out when he makes a point! It is so good.
100% agree, except I just can't put them in words so eloquently like Vlad does. 😀👍
Excellent Video Vlad!!!♥️
His speech was a terrifying glimpse into his psyche. It was all projection. I got my iodide pills in the mail today.
Projection is exactly what it was.
Projection is also a favourite gimmick of trump although his language is more infantile! Must be a narcissist m.o.
Just a practical note: Iodine pills only have a very specific use. Sustained nuclear accident that releases radioactive iodine AND you are under 50-60. Not applicable when it comes to nuclear weapons, not of much use to older adults.
(Oh, and the thing that is prevented by saturating the thyroid with iodine (so it can't take up the radioactive variety) is thyroid cancer. Which is pretty treatable/non-fatal if society is well functioning. )
I am watching your content for a while and I'd like to thank you for your presence on YT. It helps to understand better all things which sorround us at the moment.
Thank you Vlad🤝
Thank you so much Rafal!
@@VladVexler You are welcome, Sir.
Vlad, I really look forward to your videos. More deeply understanding what's happening helps me cope better, even as disastrous as reality actually is. Thank you for making so many. Sending you good health & vitality from downunder.
So very well put. Some truly awesome insight.
LMAO at your reading of Konstantin's tweets 🤣 Great stuff Vlad 👏 You are producing some brilliant, informative and very important videos for these crazy times. Well played Sir!
Vlad's the man. a credit to our country.
thank you
If pootin had talked the same way his subjects might have realized that he should go to the loony bin.
@@VladVexler How did you know what I wanted to say in the end? I sincerely asked Medevev to remove the part about my mommy.
@@darthputinsmouthpiece1059 😂
After discovering Vlad I can't enjoy any other political analysis about this war, halp! 😵💫
Always appreciate your comments Vlad 👍 🇺🇦 ✌️
Thank you, Vlad, for your ability to beautifully distill such complex ideas for us all!!!
I love the unscripted format. You are right w the Russians being apolitical as long as their physical body is not compromised, but when the propaganda is telling them “ you’re going to die, you’re not going to die” that is just too much for their brains to handle!!!
Actually, their brains ARE handling it - they flee, who can. It will be interesting to see how those who must stay handle the draft: will they hide in some countryside? There are many abandoned houses in deep rural Russia. And the brainless ones just will go to war ….
I just watched little bits of an adorable video from Sailor Nom, who is a Russian vlogger. She has just joined her husband in Serbia, and the first thing she seemed to do was go to an anti-war protest. She was practically ebullient with joy to see a few hundred Russian expats going out to stand in the rain at a protest rally, and she was swearing non-stop, which I never heard her do before. Even though I am having a crappy day, I could feel her feeling of sudden liberation, just as if she had wings. She was so happy to see Russians being free to protest.
Well, that's not to say anything in particular, but it's what came to my mind when you talked about Russians being apolitical unless a gun is practically in their face. That's not truly true, I think, or at least the truth is a good deal more complicated than that statement.
I think about how easily and how deeply Putin has stirred up distrust, anger and conspiracy nonsense in the west. Then I try to imagine what a world in which 100 times that magnitude of propaganda is deployed against citizens, and done in its native language, must be like. In that light, I see a lot of resilience, especially among younger people. I think they might be better critical thinkers than most of us.
I think things sounds a bit fishy if one day I'm going to die and the other day not.
Hi Vlad, I always look forward to your updates now. On one of your last points and the realisation of the political situation, one of 1420’s recent videos had a fascinating interview with an older man. It was edited into a couple of parts, at first his answers were a repeat of Putin’s propaganda, spoken with enough passion to make you think he genuinely believed what he was saying. In the second clip, the interviewer led him with some very simple questions culminating in the question, how would Ukraine invade a nuclear power. You could see his beliefs evaporate and he looked genuinely scared. I just wondered, how thick is this veil of Russian propaganda? Is it as easy to break through as that with most Russians? With, what you hope, would be questions Russians are now asking themselves.
hey, could you tell which video are your talking about?
that 50-65%, to accept what is really happening, have to challenge their entire relationship with politics- - this war is proving what their entire lives are based on is wrong. That you can outsource politics and it will be OK. They cannot accept that it's not OK. For now. More things need to happen for them to wake up. The critical point is not now, but earlier, when they outsourced politics. Once you outsource politics, it becomes very difficult to accept that that could go fundamentally wrong. Esp with all the manipulative resources of the Russian state.
@@VladVexler as a westerner it’s such an alien concept to me, but then I think of how long Putin has been in power and realise that there are 20-30 year olds who won’t have known anything different.
@@oxanax5360 ruclips.net/video/0YarNZ5YKNU/видео.html
@@oxanax5360 of course, the channel is called 1420 and it's the last upload called "Do you know that 20-50k of our soldiers have died already?"
Awesome! Fantastic! Your performance of this thing is perfect. Honest praise. Cheers!
Vlad I am so grateful for all the content you are putting out on this topic. Because I lived in Russia when things broke out in 2014, I feel very emotional about this war. Thankful for your voice of reason, it keeps me from despair about what is going on. I hope your health is standing up.
Thank you Vlad Vexler. This explained a lot, a lot that I hadn’t grasped from an insiders perspective. I have worked in Poland, and have 4 generations of Ukrainian relatives. Have researched in linked areas. Your Russian perspective fills the difficult areas of the jigsaw. There are no good, fairly quick fixes at all, are there? I can see none. I felt that the 1990’s were only a decade of ‘breathing space’. I’m not happy to have been right about it, only partially right at that. Thank you for your superb work, presentation and dedication .
90s aren't all they're cracked up to be. They were a decade of HORROR to the Russian people. Free press was indeed a thing, also going into the early 2000s, but that's not something Russians have learned to appreciate, they don't have a scope of its political significance. Yeltin is the symbol of the 90s and really how much of a true democrat do you think he is, having shot up the parliament with tanks? At least there existed some political confrontation and opposition, but it was dealt with successively during Putin's rule. Other trait of the 90s was crime running extra rampant. Nobody wants the 90s back. Putin is STILL no matter how terrible and how much he's destroying the country seen better than the 90s.
Some pieces to rebuild Russia into a country not based on oppression are actually there, the real opposition "exists", part jailed, part retired, part exiled. The conditions for them to fall into place... so far not, difficult to predict. At this point, even Putin's cronies may prefer a more democratic order as opposed to the destruction he has caused.
I think one key to solution is for Russian people to realise that no matter what happens, the 90s are NOT coming back. The opposition as it exists now in a dormant state is not anyhow like Yeltsin and his crew, nothing in common, the initial conditions are not alike either. To not let the 90s boogeyman cloud their judgement.
@@SianaGearz Weak leadership in a society of which many lacked real internal moral compasses, only the draconian rule that enforced them to behave, just by accident while enforcing everyone else too to "behave". Something similar is always to be expected when such oppressive regimes fall. Cultures where hacking the system and crossing the line is seen as an act of virtue will always produce well equipped criminals once the strongman is gone. It's a price we have to pay, and it's a shame if we have to pay it multiple times.
Although a long time ago I was drawn into the weird world of Russian dashcam footage, and while I know these compilations introduce a lot of bias, it never looked like a country where people really that much care about the rule of law. Putin establishing order and bringing peace and safety to the streets seems a bit of an overstatement. I'd risk saying that without such an authoritarian leader, civilian life would not be much different there.
@@matwyder4187 I don't know, i don't really think people are really that much different anywhere regarding their fundamental propensity to do mischief, but it's better if they can do mischief in a legal way i suppose on Wall Street or elsewhere. What you need are ground up strong, functional institutions, and those have never been great in the Soviet Union, suffered further during the 80s due to a combination of factors (both economic failure inherited from the 70s, and somewhat mishandled reforms), and experienced a major hit again with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the recurring economic crashes of the 90s. Institutions are antithetical to one person being the linchpin of order, the order must be baked into the system on all levels.
But i suppose new societal structures, mix of pseudo institutions and real ones, have formed somehow that deal with the situation, and i don't think they're really going away and would have the country crash into chaos again if Putin was gone right now. But as his rule continues, he's necessarily going to cause a lot more destruction that would eventually cause all hell to break loose. Economy crumbling hard has all sorts of follow up consequences. Whether the crash of society happens during his rule or right after he's gone seemingly as a consequence due to damage being caused by him right now is i believe incidental.
You mean “perspective on Russia, not “Russian perspective,” right? If not, Vlad here is Ukrainian, just fyi. :)
@@b.w.22 Ukrainian? Naw. Soviet from St. Petersburg, which is very much not Ukraine.
Thank you for your time and insight Vlad.
pleasure!
I want MORE! VV’s info is authoritative and top-notch!
Wonderful video Vlad, very insightful.
I love this channel. The statement about the fall of the USSR being a tragedy & that they didn't want to recreate it was very telling to me.
"Russia doesn't need the past, but if the 'people want it' then I have no choice."
And people always ignore the reasoning.
“Because in a single moment millions of Russian people were cut off from their motherland”.
How would you like YOUR country torn apart like this, huh?
Ask Germans how they felt after WWII. They wanted to reunite with their people and they had every right to do so. Just like the Russians do.
Hey Vlad just want to say i love the format of your videos, feels like a i'm listening to a professor who passionately explains things and blows your mind, with a nice touch of humour to.
Thank you. Wonderful insight as always.
I feel your content is really amazing and you really know the things you are talking about here, thanks you
Also i have explicit answer about what russian population knows of Bucha staff. When i was in Dagestan a week ago, our Dagestan guide once said, that he will be probably mobilized, and he doesn't fansy that, as he doesn't really understand why russians fight in Ukraine, though he heard of Ukrainian guy who tortured russian captives, so he will be nice to be dealt with. When i mentioned that russian soldiers do the same, he was quite surprised
Just the best, most cogent analysis out there, thanks Vlad I really appreciate the content across your channels
Always enlightening to start a grey Sunday morning with a bit of Vlad. Thanks for sharing your analysis with us.
Thank you so much Vlad.😀👍😊
Great analysis and well chosen questions - thank you Vlad. The analysis of Putin's empty imperialism and the Putin perception of Ukrainians was very interesting.
Thanks so much!
Vlad, I only recently found your channels after being obsessed with this conflict and Russia in general for a long time. Thank you for framing the issues in such a clear-eyed and frank way. I sense you have deep sympathy for the Russian people. As do I. Unfortunately, sympathy and hope are not the same thing. And as fascinating as the pathology of Putin is, I’m mostly worried about my friends who sit confused and in denial on the sidelines in Moscow. What will life look for them in 6 months time? Thank you again.
What do you mean with confused? Are your friends unaware with what is truly going on in Ukraine? Are they one of those who lost their mind due to propaganda so they don’t know what is real or not anymore?
Life is getting better for most Russians. Worse for westerners.
@@gmw3083 lol, you guys are delusional
@@1queijocas What's happening in Russia can be argued. The obvious deterioration occurring in the west (especially Europe) cannot be denied by any rational person.
Russians in general are far hardier people than the typical westerner and will outlast them for as long as necessary.
America knows this, so they are resorting to desperate measures, such as taking out Nordstream.
@@gmw3083 , hahaha!
Thank you so much Vlad! As always a stellar video and explanation.
You're an amazing presentator. Thanks for your uploads.
Thank you Vlad, and It seems that you re doing pretty well with unscripted videos... You too have created a precedent :)
It's hard on the main channel - I predict this one will suffer.
@@VladVexler I don't think this one is doing bad. I have seen it mentioned in the comments of other channels. It'll be fine. You'll see a dip at some point, just ride the waves.
@@VladVexler Sorry, but this time you were wrong. 👎🏻
(Trying to create mixed messages myself, Russian propaganda style, how am I doing?)
I thoroughly enjoy ( is it terrible to say that) your quite acedemic view of the current Russian /Ukranian "Problem ".
Your input is really quite precious as it is beautifully original.
I support you with all my heart.
An Irish person who lives in Marseille.
Very enlightening and educational video as always. You do an incredible job teaching us the thinking and vulnerabilities of the regime. Thank you so much for doing this important work.👍
Frederik thank you!
You introduced me to phylosiphy and I really admire what you say Vlad and your inteligence
So appreciative you flipped this one so fast, Vlad! (Perfect timing: Hurricane Ian has arrived here in Virginia, now just a persistent gloomy downpour keeping everyone inside)
Spaseeba moy druck!
Be safe!
"Druck" should be "droog," but I like "druck" so I was hesitant to correct you. Stay safe!
🕵 In the US 🇺🇸, 29 out of 46 Presidents personally served in the armed forces and so did many of their children including most recently, Beau Biden. In the UK 🇬🇧, kings and princes also traditionally served in wars such as then Princes Philip, Andrew, William, and Harry. As leader of a nation, if you're not willing to send your own children to die in wars, you shouldn't ask it of others. That is the standard people should use to choose a leader. Not *cough* hiding behind long white tables like someone we know 😂
This is so richly done! I'll be listening to it multiple times.
Thank you for this video
Just subscribed, your wonderful!I hope you never edit yourself.your eloquence & humor AND intelligence are much appreciated. ♥️
You already know Vlads Chat Channel?
I love your expressive reading 😍 and, absolutely absorbing your discussion, Vlad…Thank you! 🌻.
Thank you for your incredible insights ...
Really enjoying your content, Vlad. Thanks for the thoughtful analysis and explanations.
I managed to listen putins speach live. I often follow ruzzian propaganda but speed of yesterday's nonsense sentence made my brain boil...
When you talked about how Putin views himself as Russia, I couldn’t help but have a sense of de ja vu. Here in the US, Trumps whole schtick is “patriotism” and having a political party be your identity. I suspect it’s the same playbook.
Dictators think like that. But then there is malignant narcissism.
Always appreciate your work!😊
I really do enjoy your analysis of the situation. Feels more in depth than what the media can offer us.
Great thoughtful content.
thank you!
Vlad the Explainer, well done. Thanks for these insights.
This was excellent Vlad, thank you!
Excellent video Vlad. Thank you
Thank you, Vlad. I genuinely draw a lot of comfort from your explanation of what’s happening in Russia from their perspective of how the Russians themselves see it. I know “comfort” might be an odd word for some, but I genuinely tend to feel better when I feel I understand a situation more versus simply being reassured that everything is “okay”, if that makes sense.
As a Brit, I take for granted our complicated, clunky parliamentary system where the PM is constantly under scrutiny and being challenged by the backbenchers and opposition MPs. Politicians are expected to take harsh criticism for everything they do here, and the real test of their skill is how well they take it- while in Russia, even a peaceful protest against the government is a risk. It’s really given me perspective and realise the nuance of the situation, especially when the media here in the west can misinterpret some of the things coming out of Russia.
So again thank you!
After hearing your reading of Putin's speech and reading Konstantin Kisin's translation of his speech, I think Putin was speaking not to Russians but to the other countries that have experienced American and European colonialism over the centuries like China, India, Vietnam, the Middle Eastern, African. SE Asian, South American, and Central American countries. These words are a paraphrase of exactly how many people in China feel about the West (I lived there for 8 years) and how many in Central America (where I've lived for the past year and a half ) feel about the United States. He's asking for these countries' support in overturning the world order and punishing the West, especially the United States.
Absolutely. You agree if I call it propaganda? This is going on for years now. All the world is, like Russia, the VICTIM of the USA. Including lots of Americans and all of Europe.
Is Russian, or Chinese, model a desirable option?
Funny that Putin and Jinping criticize a unipolar world order when they themselves are pursuing a unipolar world order.
A bit hypocritical considering all the revolutions and rebellions the Soviet Union helped supply and encourage in those regions in the Cold War. Not to mention Russia itself once owned Alaska as a colony and helped destroy the Polish-Lithuania commonwealth, taking there lands and subjugated the polish and Lithuania people.
Agreed that's how I understood it as well.
Thanks for the answering of a range of relevant questions.
Vlad, you did an excellent overview of the situation. Perhaps the best one, I have seen.
I see and appreciate you upped your video quality too, cheers for that apart from content itself!
Thank you! This is actually the first more or less unedited video on main channel!
@@VladVexler I get it's a process, I think with your ability to speak easily and in an understandable way there's no need to put any extra pressure on you editing-wise especially with as much going on these days and you willing to give us as much insightful info as fast as possible. I appreciate these videos and updates very much. Cheers from Poland
Lyman (Donetsk oblast) is a key logistics hub with a railway connection and many roads in and out. Now that it's been liberated (as of today), together with many places to its north, it's very likely that Ukraine will fairly quickly take back additional large areas to the north-east and east because there a few defensible positions for the Russians and their troops have suffered a massive collapse and are currently in rout mode. Kreminna (Luhansk oblast) may well be the next significant location to fall.
I think you need to view or read other reportage from other than Ukrainian sources or MSM if you think what you assert reflects what is actually happening in the big picture. Lyman is no longer a strategic hub for the Russian allies and are regrouping. In order to take Lyman Ukraine drew forces away from other locations leaving themselves vulnerable in those areas. The impact of 300,000 reinforcements will soon blunt any thoughts of further gains by Ukraine. The facts are that Ukraine has taken far more casualties and loss of equipment primarily due to the withering effects of Russian artillery and air superiority. It’s a sad,sad state of affairs all around.
@@philipreed387
Sure, Ivan. Cope harder. The Ukrainians are actually very good at minimizing casualties. They have better equipment, better training and high morale. The Russian losses at Lyman are tremendous, and the fact that they have obviously decided not to retreat until it is too late is not doing them any favors.
And where do you get the idea the Russians have air superiority? The Russians never had any, as their aircraft get shot down if they get even _near_ Ukrainian territory.
The liberation of Lyman pretty much amounts to imminent liberation of Luhansk and a large part of Donetsk. Yes, that is how important it is. All the Ukrainians will have to do now is put up defenses to turn those 300,000 untrained, badly armed and and unmotivated Russian troops into fertilizer as soon as they set foot on Ukrainian soil.
@@philipreed387 You're right, Lyman "is no longer a strategic hub" for the Russians .... because the Russians have been kicked of there!
Moreover, to describe a massive defeat and routing of Russian forces as "regrouping" is just to parrot Russian propaganda nonsense. They said the same thing after the utter rout around Izium and Kupiansk just a few weeks ago.
It's also just Russian propaganda - and an excuse for losing Lyman - to say that the Ukrainians "drew forces away from other locations leaving themselves vulnerable in those areas". If were true, then we'd be see Russian gains elsewhere - but we ain't.
These 300,000 Russian reinforcements will make little difference because many of them are unwilling civilians, press-ganged into the army, dressed in ill-fitting camou, with little or no training, and with little or no equipment other than that which they themselves have managed to buy. They will be facing battle-hardened, well-equipped, highly-motivated Ukrainian troops, trained to NATO standards. It's simply sending lambs to the slaughter.
Well done.
"They discriminate by calling themselves the civilized world."
Hmm, that sounds like something a barbarian would say.
🤔🤔🤔🤔
You and your channel are amazing. I spent the day watching many of your videos. Made me think and realize that there is so much more to consider about Russia and how we got to where we are. Not just Russia but the West too. Now a subscriber, I look forward to more learning in the future. I see that you are a musician too. Me too. Thank you from Sebastopol, California.
This is high quality content 👍👍👍 And u just talk without cuts like most of other youtubers. Brrrilliant 😊
Great video!
Vlad, can you elaborate more on the "wobble" theory? What kinds of circumstances would you identify as signs of a vulnerable regime? Thanks in advance for your perspicacious analysis.
Some of his top dogs suddenly finding some spine, talking against some move publicly or declining some stupid order or something like that, or his media clowns mentioning his name instead shifting the blame thruout the administration, or china stating that they signed a treaty with ukraine, that they did following the budapest protocol, but this was bilateral and china is a guaranteer of ukraine's nuclear security by it, anyways this regime has many glass legs and any of it breaking could induce a wobble.
Anyways that's what i think, i'm not vlad tho, but i went thru similar things with the breakup of yugoslavia, and while the circumstances were somewhat different, the tools and means and ways of such regimes follow similar paths for certain, the game is the same, but the players are not so to speak.
Been looking forward to this since you teased it earlier.
How effectively can military defeats like Kharkiv, now Lyman, convince the Russians that the mobilization is failing? Can this produce the wobble? If the Russian military remains unbalanced a number of these punches might come over the next month.
I am afraid most apolitical Russians need to see the body bags to realise mobilisation is failing.
But Putin is not taking back the dead
Too early. This would rather serve as a reason for why mobilisation is needed.
But if we get a similar scenario to Lyman (caveat: at the time of writing I don't know exactly the scope of Russian losses there, losing a few square km is not very important, but if you lose thousands of men at one blow that is already a big thing) in 2-5 weeks, then that might impinge.
Of course depending on how it is reported - a steady drip of "it is going badly" is less impactful than the contrast between propaganda about impending victory and then a collapse.
Many thanks for the breakdown.
Simply brilliant analysis, thank you. 👏
Pleasure!